Multi‐frequency solar observations at Metsähovi Radio Observatory and KAIRA

We describe solar observations carried out for the first time jointly with Kilpisjärvi Atmospheric Imaging Receiver Array (KAIRA) and Aalto University Metshovi Radio Observatory (MRO). KAIRA is new radio antenna array observing the decimeter and meter wavelength range. It is located near Kilpisjärvi, Finland, and operated by the SodankyläGeophysical Observatory, University of Oulu. We investigate the feasibility of KAIRA for solar observations, and the additional benefits of carrying out multi‐instrument solar observations with KAIRA and the MRO facilities, which are already used for regular solar observations. The data measured with three instruments at MRO, and with KAIRA during time period 2014 April–October were analyzed. One solar radio event, measured on 2014 April 18, was studied in detail. Seven solar flares were recorded with at least two of the three instruments at MRO, and with KAIRA during the chosen time period. KAIRA is a great versatile asset as a new Finnish instrument that can also be used for solar observations. Collaboration observations with MRO instruments and KAIRA enable detailed multi‐frequency solar flare analysis. Flare pulsations, flare statistics and radio spectra of single flares can be investigated due to the broad frequency range observations. The Northern locations of both MRO and KAIRA make as long as 15‐hour unique solar observations possible during summer time. (© 2015 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Variations of 14C around AD 775 and AD 1795 – due to solar activity

The motivation for our study is the disputed cause for the strong variation of ¹⁴C around AD 775. Our method is to compare the ¹⁴C variation around AD 775 with other periods of strong variability. Our results are: (a) We see three periods, where 14C varied over 200 yr in a special way showing a certain pattern of strong secular variation: after a Grand Minimum with strongly increasing ¹⁴C, there is a series of strong short‐term drop(s), rise(s), and again drop(s) within 60 yr, ending up to 200 yr after the start of the Grand Minimum. These three periods include the strong rises around BC 671, AD 775, and AD 1795. (b) We show with several solar activity proxies (radioisotopes, sunspots, and aurorae) for the AD 770s and 1790s that such intense rapid ¹⁴C increases can be explained by strong rapid decreases in solar activity and, hence, wind, so that the decrease in solar modulation potential leads to an increase in radioisotope production. (c) The strong rises around AD 775 and 1795 are due to three effects, (i) very strong activity in the previous cycles (i.e. very low ¹⁴C level), (ii) the declining phase of a very strong Schwabe cycle, and (iii) a phase of very weak activity after the strong ¹⁴C rise – very short and/or weak cycle(s) like the suddenly starting Dalton minimum. (d) Furthermore, we can show that the strong change at AD 1795 happened after a pair of two packages of four Schwabe cycles with certain hemispheric leadership (each package consists of two Gnevyshev‐Ohl pairs, respectively two Hale‐Babcock pairs). We show with several additional arguments that the rise around AD 775 was not that special. We conclude that such large, short‐term rises in ¹⁴C (around BC 671, AD 775, and 1795) do not need to be explained by highly unlikely solar super‐flares nor other rare events, but by extra‐solar cosmic rays modulated due to solar activity variations. (© 2015 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Cluster analysis for pattern recognition in solar butterfly diagrams

We investigate to what extent the wings of solar butterfly diagrams can be separated without an explicit usage of Hale's polarity law as well as the location of the solar equator. We apply two algorithms of cluster analysis for this purpose, namely DBSCAN and C‐means, and demonstrate their ability to separate the wings of contemporary butterfly diagrams based on the sunspot group density in the diagram only. Then we apply the method to historical data concerning the solar activity in the 18th century (Staudacher data). The method separates the two wings for Cycle 2, but fails to separate them for Cycle 1. In our opinion, this finding supports the interpretation of the Staudacher data as an indication of the unusual nature of the solar cycle in the 18th century (© 2011 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

The solar dynamo in the light of the distribution of various sunspot magnetic classes over butterfly diagram

We present the data concerning the distribution of various sunspot magnetic classes over the solar butterfly diagram and discuss how this data can inform solar dynamo models. We use the statistics of sunspots that violate the Hale polarity law to estimate the ratio of the fluctuating and mean components of the toroidal magnetic field inside the solar convective zone. An analysis of the spatial distribution of bipolar, unipolar and complex sunspot groups in the context of simple dynamo models results in the conclusion that the mean toroidal field is relatively simple and maintains its shape during the course of the solar cycle (© 2010 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Sunspot groups at high latitude

Data of sunspot groups at high latitude (35°), from the year 1874 to the present (2000 January), are collected to show their evolutional behaviour and to investigate features of the yearly number of sunspot groups at high latitude. Subsequently, an evolutional pattern of sunspot group number at high latitude is given in this paper. Results obtained show that the number of sunspot groups of a solar cycle at high latitude rises to a maximum value about 1 yr earlier than the time of the maximum of sunspot relative numbers of the solar cycle, and then falls to zero more rapidly. The results also show that, at the moment, solar activity described by the sunspot relative numbers has not yet reached its minimum. In general, sunspot groups at high latitude have not appeared on the solar disc during the last 3 yr of a Wolf solar cycle. The asymmetry of the high latitude sunspot group number of a Wolf solar cycle can reflect the asymmetry of solar activity in the Wolf solar cycle, and it is suggested that one could further use the high latitude sunspot group number during the rising time of a Wolf solar cycle, maximum year included, to judge the asymmetry of solar activity over the whole solar cycle.     

The north–south asymmetry of solar activity at high latitudes

Solar long-term activity runs at high latitudes in three ways: (i) in phase with solar long-term activity at low latitudes; (ii) in antiphase with solar long-term activity at low latitudes and (iii) does not follow either (i) or (ii), and mainly occurs around the times of maxima of (i) and (ii). In the present study, we investigate the north–south asymmetry of solar activity at high latitudes and found the following. In Case (i), high-latitude filament activity, for example, is inferred to have the same dominant hemisphere as low-latitude activity in a cycle. In Case (ii), the north–south asymmetry of high-latitude activity, represented by both the polar faculae and the Sun's polar field strength, is usually different from that of low-latitude activity in a sunspot cycle, and even in a cycle of high-latitude activity (polar faculae and the Sun's polar field strength), suggesting that the north–south asymmetry of solar activity at high latitudes should have little or no connection with that of low latitudes. In Case (iii), the north–south asymmetry of solar activity at high latitudes (polar flares) should have little connection with that at low latitudes as well. The observed magnetic field at high latitudes is inferred to consist of two components: one comes from the emergence of the magnetic field from the Sun's interior and the other comes from the drift of the magnetic activity at low latitudes.     

Search for relationship between duration of the extended solar cycles and amplitude of sunspot cycle

Duration of the extended solar cycles is taken into the consideration. The beginning of cycles is counted from the moment of polarity reversal of large-scale magnetic field in high latitudes, occurring in the sunspot cycle n till the minimum of the cycle n + 2. The connection between cycle duration and its amplitude is established. Duration of the “latent” period of evolution of extended cycle between reversals and a minimum of the current sunspot cycle is entered. It is shown, that the latent period of cycles evolution is connected with the next sunspot cycle amplitude and can be used for the prognosis of a level and time of a sunspot maximum. The 24th activity cycle prognosis is made. The found dependences correspond to transport dynamo model of generation of solar cyclicity, it is possible with various speed of meridional circulation. Long-term behavior of extended cycle's lengths and connection with change of a climate of the Earth is considered. (© 2007 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

The Big Bear Solar Observatory Ca II K‐line index for solar cycle 23

We present an analysis of 2634 Ca II K‐line full‐disk filtergrams obtained with the 15‐cm aperture photometric full‐disk telescope at Big Bear Solar Observatory during the period from 1996 January 1 to 2005 October 24. Using limb darkening corrected and contrast enhanced filtergrams, solar activity indices were derived, which are sensitive to the 11‐year solar activity cycle and 27‐day rotational period of plages around active regions and the bright chromospheric network. The present work extends an earlier study (solar cycle 22), which was based on video data. The current digital data are of much improved quality with higher spatial resolution and a narrower passband ameliorating photometric accuracy. The time series of chromospheric activity indices cover most of solar cycle 23. One of the most conspicuous features of the Ca II K indices is the secondary maximum in late 2001/early 2002 after an initial decline of chromospheric activity during the first half of 2001. We conclude that a secular trend exists in the Ca II K indices, which has its origin in the bright chromospheric network and brightenings related to decaying active regions. Superposed on this secular trend are the signatures of recurring, long‐lived active regions, which are clusters of persistent and continuously emerging magnetic flux. Such features are less visible, when the activity belts on both side of the equator are devoid of the brightenings related to decaying active regions as was the case in October/November 2003 at a time when a superactivity complex including several naked‐eye sunspots emerged (© 2010 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Bimodal distribution of area-weighted latitude of sunspots and solar North-South asymmetry

We study the latitudinal distribution of sunspots observed from 1874 to 2009 using the center-of-latitude (COL). We calculate COL by taking the area-weighted mean latitude of sunspots for each calendar month. We then form the latitudinal distribution of COL for the sunspots appearing in the northern and southern hemispheres separately, and in both hemispheres with unsigned and signed latitudes, respectively. We repeat the analysis with subsets which are divided based on the criterion of which hemisphere is dominant for a given solar cycle. Our primary findings are as follows: (1) COL is not monotonically decreasing with time in each cycle. Small humps can be seen (or short plateaus) around every solar maxima. (2) The distribution of COL resulting from each hemisphere is bimodal, which can well be represented by the double Gaussian function. (3) As far as the primary component of the double Gaussian function is concerned, for a given data subset, the distributions due to the sunspots appearing in two different hemispheres are alike. Regardless of which hemisphere is magnetically dominant, the primary component of the double Gaussian function seems relatively unchanged. (4) When the northern (southern) hemisphere is dominant the width of the secondary component of the double Gaussian function in the northern (southern) hemisphere case is about twice as wide as that in the southern (northern) hemisphere. (5) For the distribution of the COL averaged with signed latitude, whose distribution is basically described by a single Gaussian function, it is shifted to the positive (negative) side when the northern (southern) hemisphere is dominant. Finally, we conclude by briefly discussing the implications of these findings on the variations in the solar activity.     

Helicity of solar active regions from a dynamo model

We calculate helicities of solar active regions based on the idea that poloidal flux lines get wrapped around a toroidal flux tube rising through the convection zone, thereby giving rise to the helicity. We use our solar dynamo model based on the Babcock-Leighton α-effect to study how helicity varies with latitude and time.     

Digitization of sunspot drawings by Spörer made in 1861–1894

Most of our knowledge about the Sun's activity cycle arises from sunspot observations over the last centuries since telescopes have been used for astronomy. The German astronomer Gustav Spörer observed almost daily the Sun from 1861 until the beginning of 1894 and assembled a 33‐year collection of sunspot data covering a total of 445 solar rotation periods. These sunspot drawings were carefully placed on an equidistant grid of heliographic longitude and latitude for each rotation period, which were then copied to copper plates for a lithographic reproduction of the drawings in astronomical journals. In this article, we describe in detail the process of capturing these data as digital images, correcting for various effects of the aging print materials, and preparing the data for contemporary scientific analysis based on advanced image processing techniques. With the processed data we create a butterfly diagram aggregating sunspot areas, and we present methods to measure the size of sunspots (umbra and penumbra) and to determine tilt angles of active regions. A probability density function of the sunspot area is computed, which conforms to contemporary data after rescaling. (© 2015 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24

We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude.     

Magnetic flux participation in solar surface magnetism during solar cycle 24

This study aims at investigating surface magnetic flux participation among different types of magnetic features during solar cycle 24. State-of-the-art observations from SDO/HMI and Hinode/SOT are combined to form a unique database in the interval from April 2010 to October 2015. Unlike previous studies, the statistics presented in this paper are feature-detection-based. More than 20 million magnetic features with relatively large scale, such as sunspot/pore, enhanced and quiet networks, are automatically detected and categorized from HMI observations, and the internetwork features are identified from SOT/SP observations. The total flux from these magnetic features reaches 5.9×10²² Mx during solar minimum and2.4 × 10²³ Mx in solar maximum. Flux occupation from the sunspot/pore region is 29% in solar maximum.Enhanced and quiet networks contribute 18% and 21% flux during the solar minimum, and 50% and 9% flux in the solar maximum respectively. The internetwork field contributes over 55% of flux in the solar minimum, and its flux contribution exceeds that of sunspot/pore features in the solar maximum. During the solar active condition, the sunspot field increases its area but keeps constant flux density of about 150 G,while the enhanced network follows the sunspot number variation showing increasing flux density and area,but the quiet network displays decreasing area and somewhat increasing flux density of about 6%. The origin of the quiet network is not known exactly, but is suggestive of representing the interplay between mean-field and local dynamos. The source, magnitude and possible importance of ‘hidden flux' are discussed in some detail.     

Scientific observations at total solar eclipses

The occasion of the longest totality of an eclipse in the 18 yr 111/3 d saros cycle leads to taking stock of the scientific value of ground-based eclipse observations in this space age. Though a number of space satellites from the U.S., Europe, Japan, and Russia study the Sun, scientists at eclipses can observe the solar chromosphere and corona at higher spatial resolution, at higher temporal resolution, and at higher spectral resolution than are possible aloft. Furthermore, eclipse expeditions can transport a wide variety of state-of-the-art equipment to the path of totality. Thus, for at least some years to come, solar eclipse observations will remain both scientifically valuable and cost-effective ways to study the outer solar atmosphere.     

YAOPBM – yet another peak bagging method

I present and discuss the fitting methodology I developed for very‐long time series (2088‐day‐long). This new method was first used to fit low degree modes, 𝓁 ≤ 25. That time series was also sub‐divided in somewhat shorter segments (728‐daylong) and also fitted for these low degrees, in order to measure changes with the solar activity level. I have recently extended the fitting in several “directions”: 1) to substantially higher degrees (𝓁 ≤ 125), 2) to shorter time series (364‐ and 182‐day‐long), and, 3) to additional 728‐day‐long segments, covering now some 10 years of observations. I present and discuss issues related to this expansion, namely problems at low frequencies affecting the f and p₁ modes, and the inadequacy of the leakage matrix at higher degrees. I also present some of the characteristics of the observed temporal changes in the resulting frequencies. (© 2008 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Evidence for a long-term variation of the dynamo action responsible for the solar magnetic cycle

By using the sunspot time series as a proxy, we have made a detailed analysis of the mean solar magnetic field over the last two and half centuries, by means of a reconstruction of its phase space. We find evidence of a long-term trend variation of some of the solar physical processes (over a few decades) that might be responsible for the apparent erratic behaviour of the solar magnetic cycle. The analysis is done by means of a careful study of the axisymmetric dynamo model equations, where we show that the temporal counterpart of the magnetic field can be described by a self-regulated two-dimensional dynamic system, usually known as a Van der Pol–Duffing oscillator. Our results suggest that during the last two and half centuries, the velocity of the meridional flow, v _p, and the efficiency of the α mechanism responsible for the conversion of toroidal magnetic field into poloidal magnetic field might have suffered variations that can explain the observed variability in the solar cycle.     

Variations of the low‐degree solar p‐mode frequencies for 10 years of GOLF observations

We experiment with a method of measuring the frequency of solar p modes, intended to extend the passband for the variations of the frequency spectrum as high as possible. So far this passband is limited to a fraction of μ Hz for the classical analysis based on numerical fits of a theoretical line profile to a power spectrum averaged over periods lasting at least several weeks. This limit for the present analysis can be shifted to the mHz range, corresponding to some of the “5 min” oscillations, but in this range we use a lower resolution which allows us to separate odd and even p modes. We show an example of the results for long term variations and apply this analysis to search for a modulation of the p‐mode frequency spectrum by asymptotic series of solar g modes. A faint signal is found in the analysis of 10 years of GOLF data. This very preliminary result possibly indicates the detection of a small number of g modes of degree l = 1. A tentative determination of an observational value of the parameter P₀ follows. P₀ is the scaling factor of the asymptotic series of g modes and is a key data for solar core physics. (© 2008 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)