Vertical Air Mass Exchange Driven by the Local Circulation on the Northern Slope of Mount Everest

To better understand vertical air mass exchange driven by local circulation in the Himalayas, the volume flux of air mass is estimated in the Rongbuk Valley on the northern slope of Mount Everest, based on a volume closure method and wind-profiler measurements during the HEST2006 campaign in June 2006. Vertical air mass exchange was found to be dominated by a strong downward mass transfer from the late morning to late night. The average vertical air volume flux was 0.09 m s-1, which could be equivalent to a daily ventilation of 30 times the enclosed valley volume. This vertical air mass exchange process was greatly affected by the evolution of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM), with a strong downward transfer during the SASM break stage, and a weak transfer during the SASM active stage.     

Stable isotopes in precipitation recording South American summer monsoon and ENSO variability: observations and model results

The South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) is a prominent feature of summertime climate over South America and has been identified in a number of paleoclimatic records from across the continent, including records based on stable isotopes. The relationship between the stable isotopic composition of precipitation and interannual variations in monsoon strength, however, has received little attention so far. Here we investigate how variations in the intensity of the SASM influence δ¹⁸O in precipitation based on both observational data and Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) simulations. An index of vertical wind shear over the SASM entrance (low level) and exit (upper level) region over the western equatorial Atlantic is used to define interannual variations in summer monsoon strength. This index is closely correlated with variations in deep convection over tropical and subtropical South America during the mature stage of the SASM. Observational data from the International Atomic Energy Agency-Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (IAEA-GNIP) and from tropical ice cores show a significant negative association between δ¹⁸O and SASM strength over the Amazon basin, SE South America and the central Andes. The more depleted stable isotopic values during intense monsoon seasons are consistent with the so-called ’‘amount effect‘’, often observed in tropical regions. In many locations, however, our results indicate that the moisture transport history and the degree of rainout upstream may be more important factors explaining interannual variations in δ¹⁸O. In many locations the stable isotopic composition is closely related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), even though the moisture source is located over the tropical Atlantic and precipitation is the result of the southward expansion and intensification of the SASM during austral summer. ENSO induces significant atmospheric circulation anomalies over tropical South America, which affect both SASM precipitation and δ¹⁸O variability. Therefore many regions show a weakened relationship between SASM and δ¹⁸O, once the SASM signal is decomposed into its ENSO-, and non-ENSO-related variance.     

Competing influences of greenhouse warming and aerosols on Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall

In this paper, we have compared and contrasted competing influences of greenhouse gases (GHG) warming and aerosol forcing on Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall based on CMIP5 historical simulations. Under GHG-only forcing, the land warms much faster than the ocean, magnifying the pre-industrial climatological land-ocean thermal contrast and hemispheric asymmetry, i.e., warmer northern than southern hemisphere. A steady increasing warm-ocean-warmer-land (WOWL) trend has been in effect since the 1950’s substantially increasing moisture transport from adjacent oceans, and enhancing rainfall over the Asian monsoon regions. However, under GHG warming, increased atmospheric stability due to strong reduction in mid-tropospheric and near surface relative humidity coupled to an expanding subsidence areas, associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (DTS, Lau and Kim, 2015b) strongly suppress monsoon convection and rainfall over subtropical and extratropical land, leading to a weakening of the Asian monsoon meridional circulation. Increased anthropogenic aerosol emission strongly masks WOWL, by over 60% over the northern hemisphere, negating to a large extent the rainfall increase due to GHG warming, and leading to a further weakening of the monsoon circulation, through increasing atmospheric stability, most likely associated with aerosol solar dimming and semi-direct effects. Overall, we find that GHG exerts stronger positive rainfall sensitivity, but less negative circulation sensitivity in SASM compared to EASM. In contrast, aerosols exert stronger negative impacts on rainfall, but less negative impacts on circulation in EASM compared to SASM.     

Preliminary estimation of the moisture exchange in Rongbuk Valley on the northern slope of Mt. Everest

Using observed wind and water vapor data from June 2006,water vapor exchange between the Rongbuk Valley and its above atmosphere is estimated for the first time.The water vapor level shows a high value from 23-29 June and a low from 12-21 June,which co-incide with the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) active and break stages,respectively.The water vapor can be strongly injected into the closed region of the Rongbuk Valley from the outside atmosphere,with an average strength of 0.4 g s-1 m-2 in June 2006,given that no evaporation occurred.The air moisture exchange proc-esses can be greatly affected by the SASM evolution through changes in local radiation forcing.     

Atmospheric Moisture Distribution and Transport over the Tibetan Plateau and the Impacts of the South Asian Summer Monsoon

In this study, by using the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data from 1979 to 2010, the spatial distribution and transport of total atmospheric moisture over the Tibetan Plateau（TP） are analyzed, together with the associated impacts of the South Asian summer monsoon（SASM）. Acting as a moisture sink in summer, the TP has a net moisture flux of 2.59× 107kg s 1during 1979–2010, with moisture supplies mainly from the southern boundary along the latitude belts over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. The total atmospheric moisture over the TP exhibits significant diferences in both spatial distribution and transport between the monsoon active and break periods and between strong and weak monsoon years. Large positive（negative） moisture anomalies occur over the southwest edge of the TP and the Arabian Sea, mainly due to transport of easterly（westerly） anomalies during the monsoon active（break） period. For the whole TP region, the total moisture supply is more strengthened than the climatological mean during the monsoon active period, which is mainly contributed by the transport of moisture from the south edge of the TP. During the monsoon break period, however, the total moisture supply to the TP is slightly weakened. In addition, the TP moisture sink is also strengthened（weakened） in the strong（weak） monsoon years, mainly attributed by the moisture transport in the west-east directions. Our results suggest that the SASM has exerted great impacts on the total atmospheric moisture and its transport over the TP through adjusting the moisture spatial distribution.     

The response of the South Asian Summer Monsoon circulation to intensified irrigation in global climate model simulations

Agricultural intensification in South Asia has resulted in the expansion and intensification of surface irrigation over the twentieth century. The resulting changes to the surface energy balance could affect the temperature contrasts between the South Asian land surface and the equatorial Indian Ocean, potentially altering the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) circulation. Prior studies have noted apparent declines in the monsoon intensity over the twentieth century and have focused on how altered surface energy balances impact the SASM rainfall distribution. Here, we use the coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R general circulation model to investigate the impact of intensifying irrigation on the large-scale SASM circulation over the twentieth century, including how the effect of irrigation compares to the impact of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. We force our simulations with time-varying, historical estimates of irrigation, both alone and with twentieth century GHGs and other forcings. In the irrigation only experiment, irrigation rates correlate strongly with lower and upper level temperature contrasts between the Indian sub-continent and the Indian Ocean (Pearson’s r = ?0.66 and r = ?0.46, respectively), important quantities that control the strength of the SASM circulation. When GHG forcing is included, these correlations strengthen: r = ?0.72 and r = ?0.47 for lower and upper level temperature contrasts, respectively. Under irrigated conditions, the mean SASM intensity in the model decreases only slightly and insignificantly. However, in the simulation with irrigation and GHG forcing, inter-annual variability of the SASM circulation decreases by ~40 %, consistent with trends in the reanalysis products. This suggests that the inclusion of irrigation may be necessary to accurately simulate the historical trends and variability of the SASM system over the last 50 years. These findings suggest that intensifying irrigation, in concert with increased GHG forcing, is capable of reducing the variability of the simulated SASM circulation and altering the regional moisture transport by limiting the surface warming and reducing land–sea temperature gradients.     

FGOALS-g3模拟的南亚夏季风:气候态和年际变率

南亚夏季风的变化决定着印度半岛的旱涝状况,气候系统模式则是研究南亚夏季风变化规律的重要工具。本文基于观测和JRA55再分析资料,系统评估了FGOALS-g3模式模拟的南亚夏季风气候态和年际变率,并重点关注FGOALS-g3与FGOALS-g2以及是否考虑海气相互作用的模拟差异。结果表明,由于局地海温模拟的变化,相比于FGOALS-g2,FGOALS-g3模拟的南亚夏季风在气候态热带印度洋信风和El Ni?o期间沃克环流下沉支上有明显改进。同时,由于对流层系统性冷偏差持续存在并且中心位于副热带300 hPa附近,造成气候态上经向温度梯度减弱,使季风环流减弱,导致FGOALS-g3中陆地季风槽的水汽辐散偏差和降水干偏差仍然存在;在年际变率上,FGOALS-g3模拟的El Ni?o期间赤道西太平洋海温冷异常偏弱,印度洋偶极子偏强,导致印度半岛下沉运动减弱,FGOALS-g3中ENSO—印度降水负相关关系也依然偏弱。研究表明,耦合过程导致的气候态海温偏差通过改变环流和水汽输送,有效补偿了大气模式中印度半岛中部和中南半岛的降水湿偏差;在年际变率上,耦合模式由于考虑了海温—降水—云短波辐射的负反馈过程,能够减小大气模式模拟偏差的强度,但印太暖池区海温模拟偏差导致沃克环流下沉支偏西,使得印度半岛的降水响应出现更大的湿偏差。     

Interannual spring Wyrtki jet variability and its regional impacts

The role of spring Wyrtki jets in modulating the equatorial Indian Ocean and the regional climate is an unexplored problem. The source of interannual variability in the spring Wyrtki jets is explored in this study. The relationship between intraseasonal and interannual variability from 1958 to 2008 and its relation with Indian Summer Monsoon is further addressed. Analysis reveals that the interannual variability in spring Wyrtki jets is controlled significantly by their intraseasonal variations. These are mostly defined by a single intraseasonal event of duration 20 days or more which either strengthens or weakens the seasonal mean jet depending on its phase. The strong spring jets are driven by such intraseasonal westerly wind bursts lasting for 20-days or more, whereas the weak jets are driven by weaker intraseasonal westerlies. During the years of strong jets, the conventional westward phase propagation of Wyrtki jets is absent and instead there is an eastward phase propagation indicating the possible role of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) in strengthening the spring Wyrtki jets. These strong intraseasonal westerly wind bursts with eastward phase propagation during strong years are observed mainly in late spring and have implications on June precipitation over the Indian and adjoining land mass. Anomalously strong eastward jets accumulate warm water in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO), leading to anomalous positive upper ocean heat content and supporting more local convection in the east. This induces subsidence over the Indian landmass and alters monsoon rainfall by modulating monsoon Hadley circulation. In case of weak current years such warm anomalies are absent over the eastern EIO. Variations in the jet strength are found to have strong impact on sea level anomalies, heat content, salinity and sea surface temperature over the equatorial and north Indian Ocean making it a potentially important player in the north Indian Ocean climate variability.     

东亚和南亚季风协同作用对西南地区夏季降水的影响

为探究东亚夏季风（EASM,East Asian summer monsoon）和南亚夏季风（SASM,South Asian summer monsoon）相互作用及其强弱变化对西南地区夏季降水的影响,利用1979—2019年西南地区161站逐日降水观测资料和ERA-5提供的1979—2019年全球再分析资料,通过对比西南地区夏季标准化降水指数与东亚和南亚夏季风强度指数的相关,提出了东亚夏季风和南亚夏季风的4类协同作用,并分析了4类季风协同作用对西南地区降水的影响。结果表明:（1）EASM和SASM存在强EASM-强SASM、强EASM-弱SASM、弱EASM-弱SASM和弱EASM-强SASM 4类季风协同作用,其对应的协同年降水特征分别为四川盆地西部型、西南全区一致型、四川全盆地型及西南东部型。（2）强EASM-强SASM年,西太平洋副热带高压偏东偏弱,伊朗高压偏西偏弱,印度半岛东北部与中国南海存在两个气旋式环流,EASM将中国南海—西太平洋的水汽输送至西南地区,西南地区整体水汽辐合较弱,多下沉运动,降水较少,成都平原存在较明显的水汽辐合,上升运动明显,降水较多。强EASM-弱SASM年,西太平洋副热带高压偏东偏弱,伊朗高压偏东偏强,反气旋式环流与气旋式环流位于印度半岛南部与西太平洋,EASM将中国南海—西太平洋的水汽输送至西南地区,西南地区有明显的水汽辐合和上升运动,降水较多。弱EASM-弱SASM年,西太平洋副热带高压西伸与东伸的伊朗高压打通,低纬度地区无明显的环流圈,孟加拉湾西侧水汽向北输送至四川盆地,并伴有明显的上升运动,其余地区水汽辐散,气流下沉,降水较少。弱EASM-强SASM年则与强EASM-弱SASM年基本相反。      

Resonance Effect in Interaction Between South Asian Summer Monsoon and ENSO During 1958–2018

The study has shown that the shear component of the vertical integrated kinetic energy (Ks) over the box (40oE–100oE, 0o–20oN) can be used as a measure of the intensity of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM). Based on its value averaged between June and August, the SASM can be divided into strong and weak monsoon episodes. Between 1958 and 2018, there existed 16 (16) strong (weak) monsoon episodes. Based on the calendar year, the relationship between the SASM and the ENSO episodes can be grouped into six patterns: weak monsoon - El Ni?o (WM-EN), normal monsoon - El Ni?o (NM-EN), weak monsoon - non ENSO (WM-NE), strong monsoon - La Ni?a (SM-LN), normal monsoon - La Ni?a (NM-LN) and strong monsoon - non ENSO (SM-NE). Previous studies have suggested that the WM-EN and SM-LN patterns reflect the correlated relationship between the SASM and El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Therefore, we name these two strongly coupled categories WM-EN and SM-LN as the resonance effect. Two important circulations, Walker circulation (WC) and zonal Asian monsoon circulation (MC), in the vertical plane are found to be not always correlated. MC is controlled by thermal gradients between the Asian landmass and the tropical Indian Ocean, while the WC associated with the ENSO event is primarily the east-west thermal gradient between the tropical South Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the gradient directions caused by different surface thermal conditions are different. The main factor for the resonance effect is the phenomenon that the symbols of SSTA in the tropical Indian Ocean and the equatorial eastern Pacific are the same, but are opposite to that of the SSTA near the maritime continent.     

Observed Impact of the South Asian Summer Monsoon on the Local Meteorology in the Himalayas

The South Asian summer monsoon(SASM) is the most important climate system in Asia.Using observational data from the HEST2006(Himalayan Exchange between the Surface and Troposphere 2006) campaign and large-scale grid data,this paper analyzed the SASM impact on local meteorological parameters including radiation,temperature,humidity,and wind in the Himalayas.The SASM experienced one active and one break period during the HEST2006 campaign.The local meteorological parameters exhibit great differences between the active period and the break period of the SASM.The radiation fluxes are greater in the break period than in the active period.The air temperature and specific humidity are lower,but soil temperature and wind speed are higher in the break period than in the active period.Further analysis indicates that the SASM greatly affects the meteorological features of the Himalayan region.     

Influence of the Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific Types of ENSO on the South Asian Summer Monsoon

Based on observational and reanalysis data,the relationships between the eastern Pacific(EP)and central Pacific(CP)types of El Ni?o?Southern Oscillation(ENSO)during the developing summer and the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM)are examined.The roles of these two types of ENSO on the SASM experienced notable multidecadal modulation in the late 1970s.While the inverse relationship between the EP type of ENSO and the SASM has weakened dramatically,the CP type of ENSO plays a far more prominent role in producing anomalous Indian monsoon rainfall after the late 1970s.The drought-producing El Ni?o warming of both the EP and CP types can excite anomalous rising motion of the Walker circulation concentrated in the equatorial central Pacific around 160°W to the date line.Accordingly,compensatory subsidence anomalies are evident from the Maritime Continent to the Indian subcontinent,leading to suppressed convection and decreased precipitation over these regions.Moreover,anomalously less moisture flux into South Asia associated with developing EP El Ni?o and significant northwesterly anomalies dominating over southern India accompanied by developing CP El Ni?o,may also have been responsible for the Indian monsoon droughts during the pre-1979 and post-1979 sub-periods,respectively.El Ni?o events with the same“flavor”may not necessarily produce consistent Indian monsoon rainfall anomalies,while similar Indian monsoon droughts may be induced by different types of El Ni?o,implying high sensitivity of monsoonal precipitation to the detailed configuration of ENSO forcing imposed on the tropical Pacific.     

Impact of vegetation changes on the dynamics of the atmosphere at the Last Glacial Maximum

Much work is under way to identify and quantify the feedbacks between vegetation and climate. Palaeoclimate modelling may provide a mean to address this problem by comparing simulations with proxy data. We have performed a series of four simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) using the climate model HadSM3, to test the sensitivity of climate to various changes in vegetation: a global change (according to a previously discussed simulation of the LGM with HadSM3 coupled to the dynamical vegetation model TRIFFID); a change only north of 35°N; a change only south of 35°N; and a variation in stomatal opening induced by the reduction in atmospheric CO₂ concentration. We focus mainly on the response of temperature, precipitation, and atmosphere dynamics. The response of continental temperature and precipitation mainly results from regional interactions with vegetation. In Eurasia, particularly Siberia and Tibet, the response of the biosphere substantially enhances the glacial cooling through a positive feedback loop between vegetation, temperature, and snow-cover. In central Africa, the decrease in tree fraction reduces the amount of precipitation. Stomatal opening is not seen to play a quantifiable role. The atmosphere dynamics, and more specifically the Asian summer monsoon system, are significantly altered by remote changes in vegetation: the cooling in Siberia and Tibet act in concert to shift the summer subtropical front southwards, weaken the easterly tropical jet and the momentum transport associated with it. By virtue of momentum conservation, these changes in the mid-troposphere circulation are associated with a slowing of the Asian summer monsoon surface flow. The pattern of moisture convergence is slightly altered, with moist convection weakening in the western tropical Pacific and strengthening north of Australia.     

东南亚地区夏季风异常对云南2005年初夏干旱的影响

2005年春末夏初云南大部地区出现了50年一遇的高温干旱天气，通过对东南亚地区的水汽及对流进行诊断分析，发现中南半岛地区夏季风爆发的早迟与云南雨季开始的早迟有显著的正相关关系；前期4月孟加拉湾水汽向北输送强（弱）以及苏门答腊岛附近的对流活动强（弱），则云南雨季开始早（迟）。分析表明造成云南2005年初夏干旱的主要原因是中南半岛地区的夏季风爆发较常年偏晚，前期孟加拉湾地区的经向水汽输送以及苏门答腊岛附近的对流活动较常年偏弱。     

热带海温异常对东南亚夏季风爆发的影响

通过季风指数Im定义了能表征东南亚地区降水实况的东南亚夏季风指数,根据东南亚夏季风指数测算出东南亚夏季风爆发的平均时间为5月7日.利用东南亚夏季风指数分析热带海温场及垂直速度场的变化后发现,在东南亚夏季风爆发的前期秋、冬季节,中东太平洋地区以及中西印度洋地区的冷海温有利于东南亚地区夏季风的提前爆发.当中东太平洋地区是冷(暖)海温时,对应着纬向的Walker环流及季风环流圈强(弱),东南亚地区的对流也强(弱),则东南亚地区夏季风爆发早(迟).     

东北地区春季气温异常环流背景分析

利用东北地区99个测站近40年(1960～2000年)的春季3～5月气温资料与同期全球范围的温度场、高度场、风场资料,分析了东北地区春季冷、暖年的大气环流异常及要素场的空间分布特征。结果表明：冷春年．东北地区处于高度场的负距平中心,中层以上高纬地区有阻高或暖脊维持;东亚大槽指数的高值年对应东北高温,而低值年则对应东北低温;冷、暖春年的温度场的垂直分布十分深厚,冷春年东北地区主要受偏北气流影响,从地面到对流层顶均处于温度负距平中心内,纬向风在东北地区呈正距平分布,西风带势力较强,暖春年则相反。     

Links between Indo-Pacific climate variability and drought in the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas

Drought patterns across monsoon and temperate Asia over the period 1877–2005 are linked to Indo-Pacific climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Using the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) composed of a high-resolution network of hydroclimatically sensitive tree-ring records with a focus on the June–August months, spatial drought patterns during El Niño and IOD events are assessed as to their agreement with an instrumental drought index and consistency in the drought response amongst ENSO/IOD events. Spatial characteristics in drought patterns are related to regional climate anomalies over the Indo-Pacific basin, using reanalysis products, including changes in the Asian monsoon systems, zonal Walker circulation, moisture fluxes, and precipitation. A weakening of the monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia during El Niño events, along with anomalous subsidence over monsoon Asia and reduced moisture flux, is reflected in anomalous drought conditions over India, Southeast Asia and Indonesia. When an IOD event co-occurs with an El Niño, severe drought conditions identified in the MADA for Southeast Asia, Indonesia, eastern China and central Asia are associated with a weakened South Asian monsoon, reduced moisture flux over China, and anomalous divergent flow and subsidence over Indonesia. Insights into the relative influences of Pacific and Indian Ocean variability for Asian monsoon climate on interannual to decadal and longer timescales, as recorded in the MADA, provide a useful tool for assessing long-term changes in the characteristics of Asian monsoon droughts in the context of Indo-Pacific climate variability.     

The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and extreme daily precipitation over the US and Mexico during the hurricane season

The tail of the distribution of daily precipitation for August–September–October was examined over the United States and Mexico in relation to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). As expected from previous studies linking the AMO to hurricane activity, Florida and the coastal Southeast US showed an increase in precipitation intensity when the Atlantic was in a warm phase (AMO+). Also during AMO+ Northwest Mexico was dry and exhibited a reduction of extreme events and the Mid-Atlantic Appalachian Mountains showed evidence of an increase in heavy precipitation compared to when the Atlantic was cool. It is proposed that the aforementioned decadal variations in extreme rainfall are forced by changes in the large-scale surface winds and air temperature in conjunction with the AMO. Namely, an anomalous cyclonic circulation is observed off the Southeast coast, leading to a reduction of moisture flux into the decaying North American monsoon, and an increase in moisture flux into the Mid-Atlantic. Further, the Mid-Atlantic shows a relatively strong increase in the mid-tropospheric lapse rate. Thus, the unique combination of low-level humidity, potential instability, and elevated topography are consistent with an enhanced risk of intense rainfall during AMO+.     

THE ANALYSIS OF MECHANISM OF IMPACT OF AEROSOLS ON EAST ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON INDEX AND ONSET

RegCM4.3, a high-resolution regional climate model, which includes five kinds of aerosols(dust, sea salt,sulfate, black carbon and organic carbon), is employed to simulate the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) from 1995 to 2010 and the simulation data are used to study the possible impact of natural and anthropogenic aerosols on EASM.The results show that the regional climate model can well simulate the EASM and the spatial and temporal distribution of aerosols. The EASM index is reduced by about 5% by the natural and anthropogenic aerosols and the monsoon onset time is also delayed by about a pentad except for Southeast China. The aerosols heat the middle atmosphere through absorbing solar radiation and the air column expands in Southeast China and its offshore areas. As a result, the geopotential height decreases and a cyclonic circulation anomaly is generated in the lower atmosphere. Northerly wind located in the west of cyclonic circulation weakens the low-level southerly wind in the EASM region. Negative surface radiative forcing due to aerosols causes downward motion and an indirect meridional circulation is formed with the low-level northerly wind and high-level southerly wind anomaly in the north of 25° N in the monsoon area, which weakens the vertical circulation of EASM. The summer precipitation of the monsoon region is significantly reduced,especially in North and Southwest China where the value of moisture flux divergence increases.     

印度洋偶极子对中国南海夏季西南季风水汽输送的影响

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和中科院大气物理研究所PIAP3大气环流模式,分析了印度洋偶极子对夏季中国南海西南季风水汽输送的影响。结果表明,印度洋偶极子正位相期间夏季中国南海西南水汽输送较强,负位相期间则较弱。原因可归结为以下:正位相期间,MJO（Madden-Julian Oscillation）多活动于热带西印度洋,其向东传播受到阻碍,但经向传播明显,通常可传播至孟加拉湾地区,同时PIAP3显示印度洋季风槽位置偏北,且印尼以西过赤道气流较强,从而使得这一地区气旋性环流得到建立与加强。孟加拉湾地区对应着较强的对流活动以及深厚积云对流加热,从而通过对流加热的二级热力响应使西太平洋副热带高压位置向北推进,进而使得南海地区西南季风水汽输送得到建立与加强。在此期间孟加拉湾、中南半岛至南海地区对流活动较强,而苏门答腊沿岸对流活动受到抑制,由此增强了Reverse-Hadley环流,使低层经向风较强,进而增强了南海西南季风的水汽输送,PIAP3大气环流模式证实了Reverse-Hadley环流的增强。负位相期间,MJO多活动于热带东印度洋,在东传过程中受到Walker环流配置影响,在140°E赤道附近形成东西向非对称积云对流加热热源,其东侧Kelvin波响应加强了东风异常并配合副热带高压南缘东风压制了中国南海的西南季风水汽输送。在此期间,MJO在南海地区的经向传播较强,但经向传播常止步于南海地区15°N附近,虽携带大量水汽,但深厚积云对流强烈地消耗水汽使大气中水汽含量降低,PIAP3大气环流模式证实负位相期间深厚积云对流对水汽消耗加大,从而使得负位相期间南海地区水汽含量与正位相期间大体相近,但由于经向风不足使水汽向北输送较弱。