Assessing the resilience of Delhi to climate-related disasters: a comprehensive approach

The study addresses disaster risks in Delhi through a resilience approach. It utilizes the Climate Disaster Resilience Index (CDRI) tool, which assesses disaster resilience from five dimensions: physical, social, economic, institutional, and natural. Each dimension comprises 5 parameters, and each parameter consists of 5 variables. The study is carried out in the nine revenue districts of Delhi and reveals that East Delhi is least resilient and New Delhi is most resilient. The CDRI analysis in East Delhi points out the urgent need to focus on key parameters such as housing and land use, population, intensity and frequency of natural hazards, ecosystem services, and land use in natural terms. On the other hand, New Delhi is the most resilient due to all five dimensions, where most significant parameters responsible for its high resilience are housing and land use, population, income, employment, intensity and frequency of natural hazards, ecosystem services, and land use in natural terms. In addition, the overall results of all nine districts show an inverse relationship between resilience score and population density. For example, districts with higher population density show low resilience and vice versa. Moreover, districts located on hazard-prone areas show low resilience. For example, East Delhi and North East Delhi scored low resilience because they both are situated on the Yamuna flood catchment areas. The study further develops key suggestions that are required to address disaster risk in all nine districts of Delhi and discusses future implications of CDRI to address city??s vulnerability. The approach??s distinctness is reflected through its consideration of micro-level diversities and presents some implications to resilience.     

A review of multiple natural hazards and risks in Germany

Although Germany is not among the most hazard-prone regions of the world, it does experience various natural hazards that have caused considerable economic and human losses in the past. Moreover, risk due to natural hazards is expected to increase in several regions of Germany if efficient risk management is not able to accommodate global changes. The most important natural hazards, in terms of past human and economic damage they caused, are storms, floods, extreme temperatures and earthquakes. They all show a pronounced spatial and temporal variability. In the present article, a review of these natural hazards, associated risks and their management in Germany is provided. This review reveals that event and risk analyses, as well as risk management, predominantly focus on one single hazard, generally not considering the cascading and conjoint effects in a full multi-hazard and risks approach. However, risk management would need integrated multi-risk analyses to identify, understand, quantify and compare different natural hazards and their impacts, as well as their interactions.     

全球生态系统服务未来变化的情景

[ZW（*][HT6H]〓收稿日期：;修回日期：2007 05 18. 〓作者简介：[HT6SS]张永民（1973 ）,男,河南延津人,副研究员,主要从事生态系统研究.[WT6HZ]E mail: [WT6BZ]zym0810@yahoo.com.cn[ZW)] [HT4F] [HT5K]（JZ)] [HT5H][GK2] 摘〓要:[HT5K]简要介绍了千年生态系统评估（MA）项目情景工作组的报告《生态系统与人类福祉：情景》的核心内容。该报告主要构建和评估了全球生态系统服务在21世纪前50年可能出现的4个情景,总的来讲,生态系统服务的主要变化包括：①在实力秩序情景中,生态系统的供给服务、调节服务、文化服务和支持服务都呈现下降趋势;②在适应组合情景中,生态系统的供给服务、调节服务和文化服务呈现上升趋势,而支持服务变化不大;③在全球协同情景中,生态系统的供给服务呈现上升趋势,而调节服务、文化服务与支持服务则呈现下降趋势;④在技术家园情景中,生态系统的文化服务呈现下降趋势,供给服务和调节服务呈现上升趋势,而支持服务变化不大;⑤在4个情景中,有些供给服务与其它服务之间存在显著的此长彼消的关系;⑥在4个情景中,有些生态系统服务的变化在工业化国家和发展中国家之间存在显著的差异。     

Causes and Consequences of Ecosystem Service Regionalization in a Coastal Suburban Watershed

The demand for ecosystem services and the ability of natural ecosystems to provide those services evolve over time as population, land use, and management practices change. Regionalization of ecosystem service activity, or the expansion of the area providing ecosystem services to a population, is a common response in densely populated coastal regions, with important consequences for watershed water and nitrogen (N) fluxes to the coastal zone. We link biophysical and historical information to explore the causes and consequences of change in ecosystem service activity—focusing on water provisioning and N regulation—from 1850 to 2010 in a coastal suburban watershed, the Ipswich River watershed in northeastern Massachusetts, USA. Net interbasin water transfers started in the late 1800s due to regionalization of water supply for use by larger populations living outside the Ipswich watershed boundaries, reaching a peak in the mid-1980s. Over much of the twentieth century, about 20 % of river runoff was diverted from reaching the estuary, with greater proportions during drought years. Ongoing regionalization of water supply has contributed to recent declines in diversions, influenced by socioecological feedbacks resulting from the river drying and fish kills. Similarly, the N budget has been greatly perturbed since the suburban era began in the 1950s due to food and lawn fertilizer imports and human waste release. However, natural ecosystems are able to remove most of this anthropogenic N, mitigating impacts on the coastal zone. We propose a conceptual model whereby the amount and type of ecosystem services provided by coastal watersheds in urban regions expand and contract over time as regional population expands and ecosystem services are regionalized. We hypothesize that suburban watersheds can be hotspots of ecosystem service sources because they retain sufficient ecosystem function to still produce services that meet increasing demand from the local population and nearby urban centers. Historical reconstruction of ecosystem service activity provides a perspective that may help to better understand coupled human–natural system processes and lead to more sustainable management of coastal ecosystems.     

全球生态系统服务的状况与趋势

简要介绍了千年生态系统评估（MA）状况与趋势工作组的报告《生态系统与人类福祉：现状与趋势》中的第2部分，即“对生态系统服务的评估”。该部分主要对全球生态系统服务在20世纪末的总体状况，以及它们在20世纪后半叶的主要变化趋势进行了评估。评估结果表明，在MA明确评估的24项服务中，15项处于下降趋势，约占60%；4项处于上升趋势，约占18%；其余5项（约占22%）存在显著的空间或时间差异，即在有些地区（时段）处于上升趋势，而在另外一些地区（时段）处于下降趋势。这些变化主要表现在：①全球谷类作物和牲畜等方面的生态系统服务已经取得了显著的提高，但同时却对淡水资源和调控害虫等方面的服务造成了巨大的损害；② 按照当前的捕捞速度，野生鱼类资源已经无法承受人类的持续捕捞；③ 许多地区的淡水资源已经不能满足人类和生态系统的需求，如果延续当前的水资源利用模式，供需之间的差距将会继续扩大；④ 在对污染物质进行无害化处理、保持养分平衡、调控自然灾害，以及控制害虫、疾病与入侵生物的爆发等方面，许多生态系统的调节服务已经呈现出明显的下降趋势；⑤作为生态系统提供供给服务、调节服务和文化服务的基础条件，全球生态系统的支持服务出现了复杂的变化趋势。     

An ecosystem-based composite spatial model for floodplain vulnerability assessment: a case study of Artigas,Uruguay

Floods are natural processes that constitute a hazard to society when associated to improper land use. Anthropic activities in floodplains are a factor of vulnerability that converts a natural hazard into a threat factor, eventually leading to disaster. Nowadays, natural and social complex processes demand integrated assessments in order to improve their understanding, helping decision making over sustainable use of territory, as well as integrating society’s activity in ecosystems and potentials, restrictions and benefits that society obtain from them. In this context, the objective of this work was to build a composite vulnerability model for a floodplain under urban influence, using an integrated assessment approach. This model was based on three dimensions; threat, fragility and an ecosystem services provision. These dimensions were calculated using both primary and secondary information, and weights by specialists. Main results show that the area presents high vulnerability with an increasing gradient towards high and urbanized areas, associated with an important number and relevant ecosystem services. Also, a spatial heterogeneity of the three dimensions emerged, making evident this area’s complexity and the need of integrated assessments to approach it. The composite vulnerability model proposed presents an elevated potential for natural and social processes analysis in floodplains, which is crucial for these territory management. Moreover, these integrated dimensions could contribute to decision making in different levels, as well as generating important supplies for environmental management and land planning.

     

Hyrcanian forests conservation based on ecosystem services approach

Lush Hyrcanian mixed temperate forests are globally important ecosystems with considerable ecological and economic values and high variety of ecosystem services (ES). In this study, an ES-based approach is adopted to develop a spatial conservation framework for Gorganrood Watershed, northeastern Iran. In doing so, the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs modeling tool was implemented to spatially quantify a collection of five ES including soil retention, habitat quality (as a proxy for biodiversity), water yield, food supply and carbon storage. These services were integrated into a single layer based on the Total Ecosystem Services (TES) index. By performing correlation analyses, the type and the strength of relationships between ES, TES index values and different land features were analyzed to reveal which land-use categories at what locations are more capable to provide bundles of ES. Accordingly, Hyrcanian mixed temperate forests in the southern sub-watersheds of the area were detected to have higher potential for simultaneous provisioning of multiple ES. In addition, we show that biodiversity hotspots and provision of other ES are highly correlated and thus that conservation of one group can be beneficial for the other. Our findings are particularly applicable in areas where complex network of land-uses and limited resources are major barriers against effective conservation of Hyrcanian mixed temperate forests.     

Geospatial modelling of flood susceptibility pattern in a subtropical area of West Bengal,India

Flood hazards are the most destructive among all natural disasters and are a constant threat to human’s life and property. Effective disaster risk reduction strategies can be improved by geospatial approach in the way of producing information and knowledge that are useful to plan truly effective actions for the protection from floods. This research aims to develop a quantified predictive model of flood susceptibility in the Ghatal and Tamluk subdivision of Medinipur district of West Bengal, India, by means of empirically selected and weighted spatial predictors of flood. The weighted prediction model is used to quantify the spatial associations between individual geospatial factors within the flood inundated study area. Yule’s coefficient and distance distribution analysis are used to assign weights to individual geo-factors, and finally weighted spatial predictors are integrated to a multi-class index overlay analysis to derive the spatially explicit predictive model of flood susceptibility. The resultant susceptibility model reveals that approximately 32.35 and 52.99% of the total study areas (3261.45 km²) are under the category of high-to-moderate flood susceptible zone. Quantitative results of this study could be integrated into the policy process in the formulation of local and national government plans for the future flood mitigation management and also to develop appropriate infrastructure in order to protect the lives and properties of the common people of the Medinipur district.     

Identification of the core ecosystem services and their spatial heterogeneity in Poyang Lake area

According to the ecosystem assessment framework developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA), this paper designs an evaluation system of ecosystem services in Poyang Lake area. On the basis of relevant variables disaggregated to 1 km grid using the gridded 1 km, this paper employs factor analysis to extract a number of factors which characterize the ecosystem services of Poyang Lake area. The extracted principal component are then represented onto 1 km×1 km grids by spatial clustering analysis to recognize and identify the minimal but consistent mapping units for ecosystem services which can be used to delimit the boundaries of ecological service zones. The research identifies ten ecosystem service zones in Poyang Lake area according to the consistent principle of core ecosystem service unit. Four kinds of core ecosystem services including supporting function, provisioning function, regulating function and cultural function are identified and represented. The research results could provide both spatially and temporally valuable decision-making information for sustainable ecosystem management in the targeted area.     

四川康定城地质灾害危险性分区评价

以康定城为例,提出了城市地质灾害危险性分区评价的新方法,建立了地质灾害易发性和地质灾害社会经济易损性评价因子指标体系与评价方法,在地质灾害易发性和易损性评价基础上,进行地质灾害危险性分区评价。其危险性等级划分标准与国务院地质灾害防治条例和突发地质灾害应急预案函中的划分标准一致,评价结果可直接用于城市地质灾害防治规划编制工作,为城市防灾减灾和实施地质灾害避让搬迁、监测报警和防治工程的实施提供了科学依据。     

西安市农业生态系统服务间关系及空间分异

农业生态系统是一种人工-自然复合生态系统,人类行为和管理决策干扰生态系统服务的供给和需求,生态系统服务之间的关系也随之发生变化.以西安市农业生态系统为研究对象,测算了农产品供给、固碳、水源涵养、净化环境及文化娱乐5项生态系统服务价值,分析农业生态系统服务总价值的空间差异,并根据景观特点和农业生态系统服务价值将研究区划分为3个区,探索不同分区生态系统服务功能之间的相互关系,并提出了西安市的生态系统管理对策.结果表明：研究区提供的农业生态系统服务总价值为590×10⁸元.从生态系统服务大分类来看,调节服务 > 供给服务 > 文化服务.各区县农业生态系统服务功能价值差别较大.1999-2013年,西安市供给服务上升,调节服务和支持服务下降.西安市农业生态系统服务功能价值大致呈现由市中心向边缘区逐渐加强的趋势.在不同的农业区域生态系统中,生态系统服务内部各功能之间的相关性差异较大.在耕区、园区、林区生态系统中,农产品提供与固碳、水源涵养、净化环境、文化休闲服务之间的相关性差异大,而调节服务与文化服务以及调节服务各功能之间的相关关系均呈现显著正相关.为了维护城市生态系统的稳定,应该调整城市绿地景观格局,构建“绿色斑块、绿色廊道、湿地、农田”镶嵌共存的绿地生态系统;在发展农区、园区生态产业过程中,应当调整农业产业结构,选择经济效益与生态效益兼顾的作物品种和植被类型.     

Relevance of building site categories implementation into the land use plan in underground mining area in the region of Petrvald (Czech Republic)

Deep mining of mineral resources causes extensive changes in rock environment and ground morphology and must be considered in the land use planning. Subsidence as a result of underground mining activities in terrains is one of the serious geological hazards because they can effect slopes and damage engineering structures, settlement areas, natural lakes and allow infiltration of contaminant into the groundwater. The main aim of this article was implementation of the building site categories of underground mining regions into the land use plans. This case study area was selected from the region of Orlova town within the Ostrava-Karvina Coal district, and this region is one of the most affected areas by underground mining of black coal in the Czech Republic. Certain risk categories of land, where the individual categories express generalized influence of deep mining of coal in current and planned constructions were also represented in this article. Extensive variations caused by underground mining were identified within a wide variability of risk categories. An important finding was also the extensive variability over time, manifested by spatial variations in the stated categories in the studied time periods. Moreover, technical documentation of environmental impacts related to underground mining activities was provided; importance of existing and proposed underground mining projects that may significantly impact the land use was discussed and pointed out in this article, especially.     

湿地生态系统服务估值研究进展

湿地生态系统服务价值评估是湿地研究的核心内容之一,科学合理的估值有利于湿地资源的开发利用和保护. 在简要介绍湿地及其生态系统服务定义和特征的基础上,提出现有湿地生态系统服务价值评估的框架,并对单项服务价值评估的主要方法进行了回顾和总结. 通过分析发现,现有研究中存在研究对象不明确、忽视研究背景、研究方法割裂联系、数据获取困难等问题,针对上述4个方面讨论了湿地生态系统服务价值评估的研究趋势. 评述结果旨在梳理湿地生态系统服务及其价值评估的知识体系,为相关研究提供理论借鉴与指导.     

基于生态工程的海岸带全球变化适应性防护策略

在全球变化导致的海平面上升和灾害性气候等压力下,我国海岸带风暴潮、海岸侵蚀、地面沉降等灾害发生频率和强度正在增加,对海岸防护体系的需求日益提高。传统海岸防护工程维护成本高,更新困难,而且可能造成地面沉降、水质恶化、生态退化、渔业资源衰退等后果。基于生态工程的海岸防护提供了抵御海岸带灾害的新理念。修复和重建沙滩、红树林、沼泽湿地、珊瑚礁等海岸带生态系统,可以起到消浪、蓄积泥沙、抬升地面的作用,有效应对全球变化引发的灾害风险,形成更可持续的海岸防护体系。通过分析不同海岸防护技术的优势和限制,认为以生态工程为核心理念构建和管理我国海岸防护体系,才能起到保障社会经济发展和维持生态健康的最佳效果。     

Integrated risk assessment method of waterlog disaster in Huaihe River Basin of China

Regional waterlog disaster integrated risk system, affected by natural, social, and economic systems and its combination relationship, is a complex system with certain structure and function. Waterlog disaster integrated risk results from the combined effects of regional environment, impact factors, vulnerability, and disaster-reducing capability of flood hazards in the drainage area. Waterlog disaster integrated risk system can be divided into four subsystems of hazard, vulnerability, disaster-reducing capability, and disaster conditions. Evaluation indexes are selected using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method, and the evaluation index system is established. Then, the waterlog disaster integrated risk evaluation model is proposed based on set pair analysis method. Taking Huaihe river in Anhui Province of China as the typical area in this study, the results show that the proposed approach is able to obtain the spatial distribution characteristics of waterlog hazard, vulnerability, mitigation capabilities, and integrated disaster risk within the study area. From the quantitative point of view, identification of the areas with high flood risk can provide a scientific basis for the flood management and technical support.

     

Integrated risk assessment method of waterlog disaster in Huaihe River Basin of China

Regional waterlog disaster integrated risk system, affected by natural, social, and economic systems and its combination relationship, is a complex system with certain structure and function. Waterlog disaster integrated risk results from the combined effects of regional environment, impact factors, vulnerability, and disaster-reducing capability of flood hazards in the drainage area. Waterlog disaster integrated risk system can be divided into four subsystems of hazard, vulnerability, disaster-reducing capability, and disaster conditions. Evaluation indexes are selected using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method, and the evaluation index system is established. Then, the waterlog disaster integrated risk evaluation model is proposed based on set pair analysis method. Taking Huaihe river in Anhui Province of China as the typical area in this study, the results show that the proposed approach is able to obtain the spatial distribution characteristics of waterlog hazard, vulnerability, mitigation capabilities, and integrated disaster risk within the study area. From the quantitative point of view, identification of the areas with high flood risk can provide a scientific basis for the flood management and technical support.     

Multi-hazard model for developing countries

Disaster risk assessment related to natural events has generally been carried out separately by specialists in each area of earth sciences, which has two negative consequences: Firstly, results of investigations are presented in different formats, mainly maps, which differ significantly from each other in aspects such as scale, symbols and units; secondly, it is common for an area or territory to contain several hazards that can potentially interact with each other, generating cascade effects or synergies. While some authors have proposed a multi-hazard analysis framework based on the use of probabilities, the quality and quantity of data required for this approach are rarely available in developing countries. Qualitative methods, on the other hand, have traditionally been limited to overlapping maps, without considering possible spatial interactions. Given the importance of integrated assessment of natural hazards for land use planning and risk management, this article proposes a heuristic multi-hazard model appropriate for developing countries, based on a standardization of classifications and a spatial interaction matrix between hazards. The model can be adjusted to be applied at different scales and in different territories; to demonstrate its versatility, it is applied to the municipality of Poás, Costa Rica, a territory with multiple natural hazards.

     

An unsustainable state: Contrasting food practices and state policies in the Czech Republic

This paper brings together consideration of food policies and practices and of post-socialist transition to raise neglected questions about means of nurturing more sustainable food systems in the developed world. The last three decades have been marked by the growing salience of food as a political and scholarly concern. While market-based alternative food systems have been heralded for their potential to promote environmental sustainability, the benefits of non-market practices such as household food self-provisioning and barter have been assumed rather than being the focus of research. In the western context, both types of food consumption have positive connotations. Although food self-provisioning in European post-socialist societies is a more wide-spread practice than in western societies, it has been on the periphery of research. The existing literature has conceptualised them as ‘coping strategies’ or as a legacy of irregular supply of goods in the state socialist era. Drawing on empirical research in the Czech Republic, we are proposing a novel approach to the phenomenon of household food production in post-socialist societies as a practice compliant with principles of sustainability. First, we highlight the large extent and social inclusivity of food self-provisioning in Czech society to demonstrate how post-socialist societies are a repository of a rich set of sustainability-promoting consumption practices in relation to food systems. Second, we show that international and domestic policy actors in these societies have ignored these alternative, socially inclusive and environmentally effective practices in favour of far less effective market-based sustainability oriented food policy initiatives. The paper promotes a more integrated view of non-market and market approaches in the pursuit of more sustainable food systems.     

Documentary proxies and interdisciplinary research on historic geomorphologic hazards: a discussion of the current state from a central European perspective

During the last two decades, documentary data (written and iconographic sources) have been increasingly employed in geomorphologic research aiming at reconstruction of territorial distribution, temporal occurrence and social and economic impacts of various geomorphologic hazards. The goal of this paper is to broaden the previous discussion (Glade et al. The use of historical data in natural hazard assessments. Kluwer, Dordrecht, 2001) of the methodological constraints on the use of documentary data for geomorphologic hazard research. Using the interdisciplinary approach of geomorphology, historiography and medial studies, we firstly summarise the major finding of papers that have employed various types of documentary data sources to study geomorphologic hazards in different regions. In the second section, we present case studies from the Czech Republic resulting from the ongoing research project that is devoted to the assessment of the potential of documentary data to reconstruct past occurrences of and mitigation strategies for geomorphologic hazards. Finally, we discuss three main methodological issues emerging from our research: (a) problems emerging from the positivist approach to documentary data sources and the necessity for critical analyses of documentary data sources based on modern historiographic approaches, (b) constraints arising from the combination of documentary data from different spatiotemporal scales and (c) lacks in the use of documentary data to study local-based adaptation strategies to cope with geomorphologic hazards.