Seismic design spectra and mapping procedures using hazard analysis based directly on oscillator response

The calculation of design spectra for building sites threatened by seismic ground motion is approached by considering the maximum responses of linearly elastic oscillators as indicators of ground motion intensity. Attenuation functions describing the distribution of response as a function of earthquake magnitude and distance are derived using 68 components of recorded ground motion as data. With a seismic hazard analysis for several hypothetical building sites, the distributions of maximum oscillator responses to earthquakes of random magnitude and location are calculated, and spectra are drawn to indicate the maximum responses associated with specified probability levels. These spectra are compared to design spectra calculated from published methods of amplifying peak ground motion parameters. The latter spectra are found to be inconsistent in terms of risk for building sites very close and very far from faults. A ground motion parameter defined to be proportional to the maximum response of a 1 Hz, 2 per cent damped linearly elastic oscillator is investigated; this parameter, in conjunction with peak ground acceleration, is found to lead to risk-consistent design spectra. Through these two parameters, a design earthquake magnitude and design hypocentral distance are defined, for a specified building site and risk level. The use of these parameters in the seismic hazard mapping of a region is illustrated.     

震级的物理含义与体波波谱特征频率

本文应用位错模型地震震源波谱理论和观测资料,论证了远场体波质点位移或速度最大值（地震震级）决定于彼此独立的两个震源动力学参数地震矩M₀和体波波谱特征频率f₀。因此,仅以地震矩表征地震强度或仅以断层尺度（体波波谱特征频率）分类地震大小,只在另一个震源参数保持为常数时才有可能。体波波谱特征频率携带着震源体波脉冲持续时间的信息。据此,探讨了地震震级的物理含义。     

中国大陆强震灾害范围的统计研究

强震的灾害范围是非常重要的地震学参数,它在地震灾害快速评估,地震保险及防震减灾等方面有着广泛的应用。本文全面,系统地收集了中国大陆宏观等震线资料,对没有地理坐标的等震线进行了数字化。精确计算了从１３０３年至１９９４年共１８３次强震的灾害范围,并对误差因素进行了分析。     

Assessment of macroseismic intensity in the Nile basin,Egypt

This work intends to assess deterministic seismic hazard and risk analysis in terms of the maximum expected intensity map of the Egyptian Nile basin sector. Seismic source zone model of Egypt was delineated based on updated compatible earthquake catalog in 2015, focal mechanisms, and the common tectonic elements. Four effective seismic source zones were identified along the Nile basin. The observed macroseismic intensity data along the basin was used to develop intensity prediction equation defined in terms of moment magnitude. Expected maximum intensity map was proven based on the developed intensity prediction equation, identified effective seismic source zones, and maximum expected magnitude for each zone along the basin. The earthquake hazard and risk analysis was discussed and analyzed in view of the maximum expected moment magnitude and the maximum expected intensity values for each effective source zone. Moderate expected magnitudes are expected to put high risk at Cairo and Aswan regions. The results of this study could be a recommendation for the planners in charge to mitigate the seismic risk at these strategic zones of Egypt.     

基于广义帕累托分布的地震震级分布尾部特征分析

极值理论在地震危险性分析中有着重要应用, 发震震级超过某一阈值的超出量分布可以近似为广义帕累托分布. 基于广义帕累托分布给出了若干地震活动性参数的估计公式, 包括强震震级分布、 地震复发周期和重现水平、 期望重现震级、 地震危险性概率和潜在震级上限等; 以云南地区震级资料为基础数据, 讨论了阈值选取、 模型拟合诊断和参数估计; 在此基础上计算了该地区的地震活动性参数. 结果表明, 广义帕累托分布较好地刻画了强震震级分布, 通过超阈值(POT)模型计算的复发周期与实际复发间隔统计基本一致, 高分位数估计在一定阈值范围内表现稳定, 为工程抗震中潜在震级上限的确定提供了一种途径.      

几种仪器烈度算法在汶川地震与芦山地震中的可靠性比较

破坏性地震发生后, 特别是在通信中断的情况下, 利用仪器烈度快速估计地震动强度(烈度)的分布情况, 可为开展最有效的地震应急救援提供决策依据. 该文介绍了现有的几种仪器烈度算法, 并利用汶川地震与芦山地震中获得的强震加速度记录对各种算法的可靠性进行了比较. 结果表明, 在这两次地震中只利用地震动峰值参数确定仪器烈度的算法可靠性较低, 而考虑反应谱特性的算法可靠性更高. 在未得到更多强震数据的检验前, 建议采用袁一凡提出的仪器烈度算法, 或利用谱烈度值确定仪器烈度的算法, 或利用加速度反应谱值确定仪器烈度的算法.      

基于数学建模的潜在地震破裂面源检测方法研究

大多数地震破裂面源检测方法都是通过简化地震震源,将地震震源表示成线源或者点源,无法有效描述地震带地震破裂面源产状和大小,不适用地震震级较大的情况下地震危险性检测。因此提出基于数学建模的潜在地震破裂面源检测方法,在地震震级较大时仍能检测出地震危险性概率。选取适宜的地震基岩水平峰值加速度衰减关系,分析地震震级、破裂长度、破裂宽度相互关系,确定地震引起的潜在地震破裂面源大小,计算给定地震动小于在场点处产生地震动的概率,将该概率同地震动加速度衰减关系结合,得到地震动年超越概率,分析地震危险性。经过实验检测发现,所提方法检测出的年超越概率与峰值加速度、最大震级有关,该概率能精准表示地震带地震破裂面源产状和大小,说明该方法检测地震危险性是合理的。     

南北地震带地区地震烈度衰减关系研究

收集了我国南北地震带地区1970年~2012年的85次地震事件的烈度等震线资料,建立了震中烈度与震级之间的经验关系,利用长轴和短轴椭圆模型拟合得到了该地区的地震烈度衰减关系。同时还搜集整理了近年来基于我国各地区的地震资料,研究得到的地震烈度衰减关系,并将其中与南北地震带存在地域重合的研究结果与本文结果进行对比分析。该研究结果能够较好地反映南北地震带地区的地震烈度衰减规律,对该地区的地震灾害快速评估具有一定的参考意义。     

2017年5月11日新疆塔什库尔干5.5级地震生命损失评估对比分析

2017年5月11日,新疆喀什地区塔什库尔干县发生5.5级地震。地震造成8人死亡、31人受伤以及财产损失,属于典型的“小震大灾”。按照一般的地震灾害损失快速评估方法,得到的评估结果与实际结果差别较大。为探讨评估结果偏离的原因,本文对不同地震损失评估方案进行比较分析,探讨了地震致灾性（地震影响场分布）、承灾体（人口）分布等因素对地震损失评估结果的影响。结果表明在此次地震快速评估中,基于宏观震中确定的地震影响场较微观震中更接近实际分布;地震烈度衰减的平均估计模型给出的地震烈度区面积明显小于实际面积;极震区存在抗震能力相对低的土木、砖木结构房屋,是造成该地震震级相对小而生命损失相对大的“小震大灾”的重要原因。对比分析结果表明,提高人口、房屋建筑等风险暴露数据的空间精准性,改善地震震中定位与地震影响场估计的准确性,将有助于提高地震应急损失评估的准确性。     

邢台地区设定地震事件烈度影响

通过邢台地区历史地震烈度资料分析,得到该地区烈度—频率灾害曲线及地震风险。以地震地质资料理论为基础,结合河北省城市活断层探测成果、地壳结构等资料,确定2个设定地震事件。采用复合震源模型,模拟合成强地面运动,并基于强地面运动模拟结果,分析邢台地区地震影响烈度,为今后该地区建筑物抗震设防、避难场所选址、震后救援以及地震保险风险评估提供参考依据。     

软土地基上地表建筑系统的强震反应

本文导出了一种给出相对烈度在lg R~0之间的收敛解(忽略震级)的小震方程式。结合在贝加尔地区岩石抗震特性调查与文字资料和统一理论,使人们可对震源等势面进行评估。确定了在震源区边界处的地震烈度稳定性和弹性波在地壳中的传播,使得推导出从地震主要参数震级向随震中距不同的烈度定量计算的转换成为可能。获得了烈度(能通量的密度)对距离的双线性相关,给出了能通量密度和相对烈度之间的关系。求出了取决于地表建筑地基的物理特性的振动载荷烈度。在地震学角度,这种强震的定量预测方法是一种提供详细地震区划和场地小区划的可能手段之一。     

关于1844年云南大关北地震问题的探讨

１８４４年８月大关北地震是马边一永善地震带中历史上较强的一次地震,过去一直很少有人研究,以前的地震目录对此次地震有不同认识,本文拟通过查阅历史地震资料,实地考查这次地震的地面破坏情况以及询访当地居民,初步认为,１８４４年８月地震的震中应元亨一带,露级在７级左右,极震区烈度为ＩＸ度,与１９７４与大关－永善７．１级地震的宏观震中基本一致。     

地震波动强度非平稳特征提取数学建模分析

地震对人类生活安全有很大的威胁,对建筑结构有明显的影响,研究地震波动强度非平稳特征可为地震的预防提供参考。研究地震波动强度非平稳特征提取模型,分别设定确定性参数和随机参数的取值。对地震波动强度非平稳特性进行傅里叶分析,根据分析结果选取数学模型,并对模型参数进行设定;将记录的地震波动强度所对应的数振幅谱进行分解,拆分成一组不同尺度的分量,并对其重组创建连续分量,提取地震波振幅谱;利用地震波的振幅谱和相位谱之间的关系对地震波动强度非平稳特征进行提取。经过仿真实验证明,本方法提取地震波动强度非平稳特征的准确度更高,对分析高分辨率地震资料具有重要意义。     

高频GPS和强震仪数据在汶川地震参数快速确定中的初步应用

高频GPS可以实时获取地表位移数据,在地震学中有十分重要的现实应用,比如快速获取震中、震级、地震烈度甚至震源破裂过程.本文以汶川地震为例,首先利用近场7个GPS台站数据反演震中位置,由于高频GPS和测震学确认的震相不一致,两种震中结果相距约15.7 km.然后对高频GPS和强震动数据进行了比较分析,我们的统计结果表明,尽管由于工作原理不同,高频GPS数据中的地震动峰值与强震记录相比存在明显差异,但是高频GPS记录的PGA、PGV和PGD同样可以作为计算地震烈度的指标.进而,使用SMBLOC程序对强震记录进行事后的基线偏移校正,得到与实时高频GPS精度相当的地表位移序列.最后,采用移动平均窗口对这些位移数据作平滑,基于最速下降法和OKADA模型,对汶川地震断层破裂的过程进行了回溯性准实时反演.结果表明,汶川地震主断层由西南向东北方向破裂,以14∶28∶04为基准,在震后20 s提供初始震级M_W7.0,震后70 s震级稳定在M_W7.8,但断层仍在破裂,在震后159 s根据位移波形判断事件基本结束.研究表明,实时地表位移数据可以快速准确获取强震震级和破裂方向,从而使得高频GPS将对现有地震预警系统提供很好的补充.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in SE-Spain based on macroseismic site histories

In many countries such as Spain earthquake databases still mainly comprise macroseismic data from felt effects. The full exploit of this information is of basic importance for seismic risk assessment and emergency planning, given the strict link between macroseismic intensity and damage. A probabilistic procedure specifically developed to handle macroseismic data, mostly relying on site information and seismogenic-source free, has been applied to evaluate seismic hazard in SE-Spain (Alicante-Murcia region). Present seismicity is moderate-low with largest magnitudes slightly over Mw5.0. The historical record includes very destructive earthquakes, maximum EMS98 intensities reaching IX–X and X in the nineteenth century (e.g., Torrevieja 1829 earthquake). Very recently, two events in the area on 11 May 2011 (Mw4.5, Mw5.2) killed nine people, injured 300, and produced important damage in the city of Lorca. Regional hazard maps for the area together with specific hazard curves at selected localities are obtained. Results are compared with the maximum observed intensities in the period 1300–2012, and with the values in the seismic hazard map from the Spanish Building Code in force. In general, the maximum felt intensity values are closer to the hazard values calculated for 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years, using felt and expected intensity. The intensity-based probabilistic hazard maps obtained through the applied approach reduce the inherent smoothing of those based on standard probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approaches for the region, allowing identifying possible over- or sub-estimates of site hazard values, providing very valuable information for risk reduction strategies or for future updates of the building code hazard maps.     

Prediction of response spectra via real-time earthquake measurements

The development and implementation of an earthquake early warning system (EEWS), both in regional or on-site configurations can help to mitigate the losses due to the occurrence of moderate-to-large earthquakes in densely populated and/or industrialized areas. The capability of an EEWS to provide real-time estimates of source parameters (location and magnitude) can be used to take some countermeasures during the earthquake occurrence and before the arriving of the most destructive waves at the site of interest. However, some critical issues are peculiar of EEWS and need further investigation: (1) the uncertainties on earthquake magnitude and location estimates based on the measurements of some observed quantities in the very early portion of the recorded signals; (2) the selection of the most appropriate parameter to be used to predict the ground motion amplitude both in near- and far-source ranges; (3) the use of the estimates provided by the EEWS for structural engineering and risk mitigation applications.In the present study, the issues above are discussed using the Campania–Lucania region (Southern Apennines) in Italy, as test-site area. In this region a prototype system for earthquake early warning, and more generally for seismic alert management, is under development. The system is based on a dense, wide dynamic accelerometric network deployed in the area where the moderate-to-large earthquake causative fault systems are located.The uncertainty analysis is performed through a real-time probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by using two different approaches. The first is the Bayesian approach that implicitly integrate both the time evolving estimate of earthquake parameters, the probability density functions and the variability of ground motion propagation providing the most complete information. The second is a classical point estimate approach which does not account for the probability density function of the magnitude and only uses the average of the estimates performed at each seismic station.Both the approaches are applied to two main towns located in the area of interest, Napoli and Avellino, for which a missed and false alarm analysis is presented by means of a scenario earthquake: an M 7.0 seismic event located at the centre of the seismic network.Concerning the ground motion prediction, attention is focused on the response spectra as the most appropriate function to characterize the ground motion for earthquake engineering applications of EEWS.     

Study on strength reduction factors considering the effect of classification of design earthquake

Introduction The strength reduction factor is defined as the lateral yielding strength required to avoid yielding in the system when subjected to a given ground motion, to the lateral yielding strength required to maintain the displacement ductility ratio demand equal to a pre-determined target duc-tility ratio under the same ground motion. The strength reduction factors are not only the key fac-tors in determining seismic action for force-based seismic design, but also one of the key parame-t…     

Analysis of strong earthquake ground motion for prediction of response spectra

Prediction of response spectra for earthquake engineering purposes is considered from a new point of view based on the dislocation theory of earthquakes. It is shown that the traditional scaling of response spectra by the predicted peak acceleration should be limited to the high-frequency end of the spectrum, and that the peak acceleration in the near field is not strongly correlated with earthquake magnitude. The amplitude of the long-period end of response spectrum at source to station distances greater than about 10 source dimensions should be scaled with seismic moment, while for distances less than about one source dimension this amplitude should be proportional to the permanent ground displacement. To reconcile the existing extensive data on seismicity of active regions based on magnitude scale, it is shown that magnitude can be used to determine approximately the seismic moment.     

Analysis of Seismic Risk at an Engineering Site from Site Effect Seismic Intensity Data Using the Seismotectonic Method Taking Six Reservoir Dam Sites in Western Anhui as an Example

The seismotectonic method is used to study the seismogenic structures and the maximum potential earthquake around an engineering site in order to determine the seismic risk at the site. Analysis of seismic risk from site effect seismic intensity data, in combination with regional seismo-geologieal data, using the seismotectonic method can provide a more reliable result. In this paper, taking the area of six reservoir dam sites in western Anhui as an example, we analyze the seismic risk from site effect seismic intensity data in combination with the seismotectonic conditions and find that P (I≥i) = 10% over 50 years. The result shows that the seismogenic structure and the maximum potential earthquake have a controlling effect on seismic risk from future earthquakes in the area around the site.     

Vulnerability of floating tunnel shafts for increasing earthquake loading

Fragility curves constitute the cornerstone in seismic risk evaluations and performance-based earthquake engineering. They describe the probability of a structure to experience a certain damage level for a given earthquake intensity measure, providing a relationship between seismic hazard and vulnerability. In this paper a numerical approach is applied to derive fragility curves for tunnel shafts built in clays, a component that is found in several critical infrastructure such as urban metro networks, airport facilities or water and waste water projects. The seismic response of a representative tunnel shaft is assessed using tridimensional finite difference non-linear analyses carried out with the program FLAC^3D, under increasing levels of seismic intensity. A hysteretic model is used to simulate the soil non-linear behavior during the seismic event. The effect of soil conditions and ground motion characteristics on the soil-structure system response is accounted for in the analyses. The damage is defined based on the exceedance of the concrete wall shaft capacity due to the developed seismic forces. The fragility curves are estimated in terms of peak ground acceleration at a rock or stiff soil outcrop, based on the evolution of damage with increasing earthquake intensity. The proposed fragility models allows the characterization of the seismic risk of a representative tunnel shaft typology and soil conditions considering the associated uncertainties, and partially fill the gap of data required in performing a risk analysis assessment of tunnels shafts.