Study on the Relationship between Large Volcanic Eruptions and Temperature Variation Based on Tree-Ring Data in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau during the Past Millennium

Volcanic eruptions can significantly cool the global troposphere on the time scales from several months up to a decade due to reflection of solar radiation by sulfate aerosols and feedback mechanisms in the climate system. The impact of volcanic eruptions on global climate are discussed in many studies. However, few studies have been done on the impact of volcanic eruption on climate change in China in the past millennium. The 1300-year and 600-year temperature series were reconstructed based on the six tree-ring temperature proxy data in northeastern and southeastern Tibetan Plateau, respectively. Three warm periods occurred in 670-920,1000-1310 and 1590-1930, and three cold periods happened at 920-1000,1310-1590 and 1930-2000 in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. There were two obviously warm periods (1385-1450 and 1570-1820) and two cold periods (1450-1570 and 1820-2000) in southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Contrasting with volcanic eruption chronology, we analyzed the relationship between volcanic activity and temperature variation in the eastern Tibetan plateau during the past millennium using Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA) method. The results indicated that the temperature decreased one year after large volcanic eruptions located beteen 10°S and 10°N in latitude in northeastern Tibetan Plateau and two years in southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The volcanic eruptions occurred at different latitudes have different impacts on the temperature variations, which may be caused by regional difference, the nature of the eruption, the magnitude of the resulting change in incoming solar radiation, prevailing background climate and internal variability, season, latitude, and other considerations.     

Probabilities of future VEI ≥ 2 eruptions at the Central American Volcanic Arc: a statistical perspective based on the past centuries’ eruption record

A probabilistic eruption forecast is provided for seven historically active volcanoes along the Central American Volcanic Arc (CAVA), as a pivotal empirical contribution to multi-disciplinary volcanic hazards assessment. The eruption probabilities are determined with a Kaplan–Meier estimator of survival functions, and parametric time series models are applied to describe the historical eruption records. Aside from the volcanoes that are currently in a state of eruptive activity (Santa María, Fuego, and Arenal), the highest probabilities for eruptions of VEI ≥ 2 occur at Concepción and Cerro Negro in Nicaragua, which are likely to erupt to 70–85 % within the next 10 years. Poás and Irazú in Costa Rica show a medium to high eruption probability, followed by San Miguel (El Salvador), Rincón de la Vieja (Costa Rica), and Izalco (El Salvador; 24 % within the next 10 years).     

Melt inclusion constraints on volatile systematics and degassing history of the 2014–2015 Holuhraun eruption,Iceland

The mass of volatiles emitted during volcanic eruptions is often estimated by comparing the volatile contents of undegassed melt inclusions, trapped in crystals at an early stage of magmatic evolution, with that of the degassed matrix glass. Here we present detailed characterisation of magmatic volatiles (H₂O, CO₂, S, Fl and Cl) of crystal-hosted melt and fluid inclusions from the 2014–2015 Holuhraun eruption of the Bárðarbunga volcanic system, Iceland. Based on the ratios of magmatic volatiles to similarly incompatible trace elements, the undegassed primary volatile contents of the Holuhraun parental melt are estimated at 1500–1700 ppm CO₂, 0.13–0.16 wt% H₂O, 60–80 ppm Cl, 130–240 ppm F and 500–800 ppm S. High-density fluid inclusions indicate onset of crystallisation at pressures?≥?0.4 GPa (~?12 km depth) promoting deep degassing of CO₂. Prior to the onset of degassing, the melt CO₂ content may have reached 3000–4000 ppm, with the total magmatic CO₂ budget estimated at  23–55 Mt. SO₂ release commenced at 0.12 GPa (~?3.6 km depth), eventually leading to entrapment of SO₂ vapour in low-density fluid inclusions. We calculate the syn-eruptive volatile release as 22.2 Mt of magmatic H₂O, 5.9–7.7 Mt CO₂, and 11.3 Mt of SO₂ over the course of the eruption; F and Cl release were insignificant. Melt inclusion constraints on syn-eruptive volatile release are similar to estimates made during in situ field monitoring, with the exception of H₂O, where field measurements may be heavily biased by the incorporation of meteoric water.     

全球变化背景下新疆地区气候跃变的可能影响因素分析

基于新疆过去50a气温和降水时间序列长期趋势的研究结果,结合对1986年及附近时段对全球气候产生重大影响的一系列事件（厄尔尼诺、火山爆发、核电站爆炸事故、温室气体增加等）的分析,探讨了1986年新疆气温和降水出现跳跃式变化的原因.具体表现为：当厄尔尼诺现象发生时,常常出现暖冬、早春,在该现象消退过程,往往降水有所增多;...     

A model study on the decay of volcanic aerosol layer and verification with Pinatubo and El Chichon data

The time evolution of stratospheric aerosol layer formed after a volcanic eruption is studied taking into account the aerosol microphysical processes of growth, coagulation and sedimentation. Using a simple model we could explain the observed evolution of the Pinatubo volcanic layer which decayed in about 3 years. The experimental data obtained by Nd:YAG backscatter lidar over Ahmedabad further supports this finding. The data obtained after the El Chichon volcanic eruption also showed that the El Chichon aerosol layer decayed in about 3 years time. Thus, though the amount of SO₂ injected has been higher, in the case of Pinatubo, about two to three times more than El Chichon, it has resulted in the production of larger aerosol particles due to faster growth and coagulation processes, and subsequently a faster removal rate, to give more or less a similar background aerosol amount at the stratosphere in about 3 years time.     

The influence of volcanism on paleoclimate in the northeast of China： Insights from Jinchuan peat, Jilin Province, China

Just like contemporary sediments, peat itself is a good repository of information about climate change, the effects of volcanic activity on climate change have been truly recorded in peat, since it is a major archive of volcanic eruption incidents. A section of sand was identified as tephra from the Jinchuan peat, Jilin Province, China, for the grains look like slag with surface bubbles and pits, characterized by high porosity, and loose structure with irregular edges and corners. According to the peat characteristics of uniform deposition, the tephra was dated at 2002–1976 a B.P. by way of linear interpolation, so the time of volcanic eruption was 15 B.C.–26 A.D. (the calibrated age). While the geochemical characteristics of tephra in this study are quite the same as those of tephra from the Jinlongdingzi volcano at Longgang and from alkaline basaltic magma, with the contents of SiO₂<55%, and the similar contents to Al₂O₃ and Fe, but the contents of Na₂O>K₂O. We speculated that the tephra in this study came from the Longgang volcano group. Compared with 11 recorded volcanic eruption events as shown on the carbon and oxygen isotope curves of the Jinchuan peat cellulose, it is obviously seen that adjacent or large-scale volcanic eruptions are precisely corresponding to the minimum temperature and humidity. It seems that these volcanic eruptions indeed affected the local climate, leading to the drop of regional temperature and humidity. As a result, there was prevailing a cold and dry climate there, and all these changes can be well recorded in peat. So the comparison of volcanic eruption events with information about climate change developed from peat, can provide strong evidence for the impact of volcanism on climate change.     

火山活动与气候变化研究进展

综述了火山活动对气候影响的研究进展。不同岩浆成分及喷发类型的火山活动对气候的影响不同：中酸性普林尼（Pl inian）式火山喷发主要造成气候变冷和臭氧层破坏，它导致气候变化的时间较短，但空间范围较大；大火成岩省造成气候变化的时空范围及程度均较大，它能够导致地表温度、海平面大幅度变化，最终引起生物灭绝；中小规模玄武质裂隙式喷发主要造成火山盆地内气候较大幅度变化，但对气候影响的持续时间较短，主要气候效应是导致附近地区温度快速下降和形成酸雨。简要阐述了第四纪火山活动的特点。     

The Impact of Volcanic Eruption on Decadal-Scale Climate Prediction Skill of Pacic Sea Surface Temperatures in the IAP Near-Term Climate Prediction System(IAP DecPreS)

Explosive volcanic eruptions are known to be a leading cause of natural climate change. There has been a growing recognition that there is a measurable climate system response even to moderate-sized volcanic eruptions. In this study, we investigated the hindcast skills of the Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) using the hindcast experiments based on the near-term climate prediction system DecPreS developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP)(hereafter DP-EnOI-IAU experiments). The DP-EnOI-IAU experiments were run for initial years from 1960 to 2005. These hindcasts took into account observed stratospheric aerosol concentrations that included the four large tropical volcanic eruptions during that period. The time evolution over the entire hindcast period for skill in predicting the patterns of the 3~7 year prediction averages for Pacific SSTs showed that there was statistically significant skill for most years except for a dramatic drop in skill during the 1980s and 1990s. Decadal hindcast skill is reduced if the post-eruption model response deviates the internal El Niño variability in the observations. The simulations showed a post-eruption SST of a La Niña-like pattern in the third northern winter after the 1982 El Chichon eruption and a El Niño-like pattern after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, which were opposite in sign to what was in the observations. This lead to the loss of hindcast skill for years in the 1980s and 1990s affected by the eruptions. Agung (1963) happened to have post-eruption Pacific SSTs more similar to the observations and thus did not degrade prediction skill in the hindcasts.     

The Tambora eruption in 1815 provides a test on possible global climatic and chemical perturbations in the past

A coupled one-dimensional radiative-convective-photochemical diffusion model, which takes into account the influence of ocean inertia on global radiative perturbations is used to investigate the possible climatic and other atmospheric effects of a major volcanic eruption, thought to be similar in magnitude to that of the Tambora eruption, Indonesia, which took place in 1815. A volcanic cloud was introduced in the model stratosphere between 20–25 km and the global average peak aerosol optical thickness was assumed to be 0.25. Both the aerosol optical thickness and aerosol composition, which determine the optical properties, were allowed to vary in the model atmosphere during the life cycle of the volcanic cloud. The results indicate that the global average surface temperature decreases steadily from the date of eruption (7–12 April 1815) with maximum cooling of 1° K occurring in the spring of 1816. The calculations also show significant warming of the stratosphere, with temperature increasing up to 15° K at 25 km in less than six months after the date of eruption. The important effects of the Tambora eruption on stratospheric ozone and UV-B radiation at the surface are also mentioned.     

The Tambora eruption in 1815 provides a test on possible global climatic and chemical perturbations in the past

A coupled one-dimensional radiative-convective-photochemical diffusion model, which takes into account the influence of ocean inertia on global radiative perturbations is used to investigate the possible climatic and other atmospheric effects of a major volcanic eruption, thought to be similar in magnitude to that of the Tambora eruption, Indonesia, which took place in 1815. A volcanic cloud was introduced in the model stratosphere between 20–25 km and the global average peak aerosol optical thickness was assumed to be 0.25. Both the aerosol optical thickness and aerosol composition, which determine the optical properties, were allowed to vary in the model atmosphere during the life cycle of the volcanic cloud. The results indicate that the global average surface temperature decreases steadily from the date of eruption (7–12 April 1815) with maximum cooling of 1° K occurring in the spring of 1816. The calculations also show significant warming of the stratosphere, with temperature increasing up to 15° K at 25 km in less than six months after the date of eruption. The important effects of the Tambora eruption on stratospheric ozone and UV-B radiation at the surface are also mentioned.     

A review of the volcano-magnetic effects observed between 1981 and 1995 on Mount Etna (Italy)

Detection of local magnetic field perturbations has often been proposed for monitoring the modifications within the volcanic edifice of the stress field or of the thermodynamic state and providing a tool for prediction of eruptions. In order to evaluate the suitability of magnetic monitoring on Mt. Etna, we analysed two historic series of magnetic data recorded there: i) during the 1981 eruption and ii) immediately after 1989 eruption. Moreover, we examined time series associated with the intense explosive activity of Etna in 1995 summer provided by the present permanent magnetic network which was set up between 1994 and 1995.     

Tall clouds from small eruptions: the sensitivity of eruption height and fine ash content to tropospheric instability

A critical factor in successfully monitoring and forecasting volcanic ash dispersion for aviation safety is the height reached by eruption clouds, which is affected by environmental factors, such as wind shear and atmospheric instability. Following earlier work using the Active Tracer High Resolution Atmospheric Model for strong Plinian eruptions, this study considered a range of eruption strengths in different atmospheres. The results suggest that relatively weak volcanic eruptions in the moist tropics can trigger deep convection that transports volcanic material to 15–20 km. For the same volcanic strength there can be ~9 km difference between eruption heights in moist tropical and dry subpolar environments (a larger height difference than previously suggested), which appears consistent with observations. These results suggest that eruption intensity should not be estimated from eruption height alone for tropospheric eruptions and also that the average height of volcanic eruptions may increase if the tropical atmospheric belt widens in a changing climate. Ash aggregation is promoted by hydrometeors (particularly liquid water), so the smaller modelled eruptions in moist atmospheres, which have a relatively small ash content for their height and water content, result in a relatively small proportion of fine ash in the dispersing cloud when compared to a dry atmosphere. This in turn makes the ash clouds much more difficult to detect using remote sensing than those in dry atmospheres. Overall, a weak eruption in the tropics is more likely to produce a plume above cruising levels for civil aviation, harder to detect and track, but with a lower concentration of fine ash than a mid-latitude or polar equivalent. There is currently no defined ‘acceptable’ concentration of ash for aircraft, but as these results suggest low-grade encounters in the tropics from undetected clouds are likely, it would be desirable to explore that issue.     

Cross-correlation between volcanic tremor and SO2 flux data from mount Etna volcano, 1987–1992

Volcanic tremor and SO₂ data, measured between 1987 and 1992 on Mt. Etna, have been studied. A cross-correlation analysis between the two time series has revealed large cross-correlation coefficients corresponding to enhanced volcanic activity. Tremor and SO₂ emissions thus seem to have a common physical origin linked to the magma dynamics of the volcano.     

Tracking volcanic sulfur dioxide clouds for aviation hazard mitigation

Satellite measurements of volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions can provide critical information for aviation hazard mitigation, particularly when ash detection techniques fail. Recent developments in space-based SO₂ monitoring are discussed, focusing on daily, global ultraviolet (UV) measurements by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA’s Aura satellite. OMI’s high sensitivity to SO₂ permits long-range tracking of volcanic clouds in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) and accurate mapping of their perimeters to facilitate avoidance. Examples from 2006 to 2007 include eruptions of Soufriere Hills (Montserrat), Rabaul (Papua New Guinea), Nyamuragira (DR Congo), and Jebel at Tair (Yemen). A tendency for some volcanic clouds to occupy the jet stream suggests an increased threat to aircraft that exploit this phenomenon. Synergy between NASA A-Train sensors such as OMI and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the Aqua satellite can provide critical information on volcanic cloud altitude. OMI and AIRS SO₂ data products are being produced in near real-time for distribution to Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs) via a NOAA website. Operational issues arising from these improved SO₂ measurements include the reliability of SO₂ as proxy for co-erupted ash, the duration of VAAC advisories for long-lived volcanic clouds, and the potential effects of elevated concentrations of SO₂ and sulfate aerosol in ash-poor clouds on aircraft and avionics (including cumulative effects after multiple inadvertent transits through dilute clouds). Further research is required in these areas. Aviation community assistance is sought through continued reporting of sulfurous odors or other indications of diffuse volcanic cloud encounters, in order to validate the satellite retrievals.     

Gigantic volcanic eruptions and climatic change in the early Eocene

23 layers of altered volcanic ash (bentonites) originating from the North Atlantic Igneous Province have been recorded in early Eocene deposits of the Austrian Alps, about 1,900 km away from the source area. The Austrian bentonites are distal equivalents of the “main ash-phase” in Denmark and the North Sea basin. We have calculated the total eruption volume of this series as 21,000 km³, which occurred in 600,000 years. The most powerful single eruption of this series took place 54.0 million years ago (Ma) and ejected ca. 1,200 km³ of ash material, which makes it one of the largest basaltic pyroclastic eruptions in geological history. The clustering of eruptions must have significantly affected the incoming solar radiation in the early Eocene by the continuous production of stratospheric dust and aerosol clouds. This hypothesis is corroborated by oxygen isotope values, which indicate a global decrease of sea surface temperatures between 1 and 2°C during this major phase of explosive volcanism.     

Annual volcanic carbon dioxide emission: An estimate from eruption chronologies

Continuing interest in the effects of carbon dioxide on climate has been promoted by the exponentially increasing anthropogenic production of CO₂. Volcanoes are also a major source of carbon dioxide, but their average input to the atmosphere is generally considered minor relative to anthropogenic input. This study examines eruption chronologies to determine a new estimate of the volcanic CO₂ input and to test if temporal fluctuations may be resolved. Employing representative average values of 2.7 g cm⁻³ as density of erupted material, 0.2 wt percent CO₂ in the original melt, 60 percent degassing during eruption, and an average volume of 0.1 km³ for each of the eruptions in the recently published eruption chronology of Hirschboeck (1980), a volcanic input of about 1.5 · 10¹¹ moles CO₂ yr⁻¹ was determined for the period 1800–1969. The period 1800–1899 had a somewhat lower input than 1900–1969, which could well be related more to completeness of observational data than to a real increase in volcanic CO₂. This input is well below man's current CO₂ production of 4–5 · 10¹⁴ moles CO₂ yr⁻¹. The average values above together with specific volumetric estimates were employed to calculate CO₂ input from individual historic eruptions, massive flood basalts, and ash-flow eruptions. Total CO₂ release from the largest of flood basalt and ash-flow sequences was 10¹⁵-10¹⁶ moles of CO₂. The impact of these sources on global atmospheric CO₂ and climate, however, will be limited by the duration and spacing of the major individual eruptive periods in the sequences.     

The behavior of chlorine and sulfur during differentiation of the Mt. Somma-Vesuvius magmatic system

Summary Reheated silicate melt inclusions in volcanic rock samples from Mt. Somma-Vesuvius, Italy, have been analyzed for 29 constituents including H₂O, S, Cl, F, B, and P₂O₅. This composite volcano consists of the older Mt. Somma caldera, formed between 14 and 3.55 ka before present, and the younger Vesuvius cone. The melt inclusion compositions provide important constraints on pre-eruptive magma geochemistry, identify relationships that relate to eruption behavior and magma evolution, and provide extensive evidence for magmatic fluid exsolution well before eruption. The melt inclusion data have been categorized by groups that reflect magma compositions, age, and style of eruptions. The data show distinct differences in composition for eruptive products older than 14.0 ka (pre-caldera rocks) versus eruptive products younger than 3.55 ka. Moreover, pre-caldera eruptions were associated with magmas relatively enriched in SiO₂, whereas eruptions younger than 3.55 ka (i.e., the syn- and post-caldera magmas which generated the Somma caldera and the Vesuvius cone) were derived from magmas comparatively enriched in S, Cl, CaO, MgO, P₂O₅, F, and many lithophile trace elements. Melt inclusion data indicate that eruptive behavior at Vesuvius correlates with pre-eruptive volatile enrichments. Most magmas associated with explosive plinian and subplinian events younger than 3.55 ka contained more H₂O, contained significantly more S, and exhibited higher (S/Cl) ratios than syn- and post-caldera magmas which erupted during relatively passive interplinian volcanic phenomena. Received January 10, 2000 Revised version accepted July 17, 2000     

天文因素对火山爆发的调制、触发作用

本文分析得到:1957—1982年间,全球低纬度火山爆发有73.9％和高纬度火山爆发有62.5％,分别发生在地球自转年际变化的减速段和加速段;火山爆发的日期,一般多发生在3天内遇到3个以上天文奇点引潮力共振加压的叠加之时,强火山爆发都发生在4个以上此种共振加压之时。表明地球自转速度变化和天文奇点引潮力共振加压在不同时间尺度上,分别对火山爆发具有调制和触发作用。其物理机理,两者都是引起火山附近地壳异常加压,促使岩浆受到挤压而累积能量或触发爆发。     

Syn-eruptive breakdown of pyrrhotite: a record of magma fragmentation,air entrainment,and oxidation

Air entrainment in fragmented magmas controls the dynamics of volcanic eruptions. Pyroclast oxidation kinetics may be applied to quantify the degree of magma–air interaction. Pyrrhotite (Po) in volcanic rocks is often oxidized to form magnetite (Mt) and hematite (Hm), and its reaction mechanisms are well constrained. To test utilizing Po oxidation as a marker for magma–air interactions, we compared the occurrence of Po oxidation products from three different eruption styles during the Sakurajima 1914–1915 eruption. Pumices from the Plinian eruption include columnar-type Fe oxides (Mt with subordinate width of Hm) often accompanied by relict Po. This columnar type is also found in clastogenic lava, where it is almost completely oxidized to Hm. The effusive lava contains framboidal aggregates of subhedral to anhedral Mt crystals without Hm. The formation mechanisms of columnar and framboidal Fe oxides were estimated. The columnar type Fe oxides were formed syn-eruptively through gaseous reactions, as opposed to the melt in a magma chamber, as demonstrated by the Ti-free nature of the columnar Mt and its synchronous oxidation to Hm. By contrast, the framboidal type was formed in a melt with decreasing fS₂. The calculation of Hm growth in a conductively cooling pumice clast constrains the surface temperature of pumice in the eruption column. The paragenesis and oxidation degree of Po and Fe oxides are consistent with the eruption processes in terms of magma fragmentation, air entrainment, and welding, and can, therefore, be a responsive marker for the magma–air interaction.