地震与海啸关系探讨

本文探讨了海啸、地震和它们的成因。作者认为,破坏性地震常伴生着破坏性海啸,但地震不会直接引发海啸。构造地震和地壳变动型海啸之间不是因果关系,而是伴生或共生关系。此外,本文还探讨了破坏性海啸的形成条件和控制地震震级的主要因素。     

A simple model for calculating tsunami flow speed from tsunami deposits

This paper presents a simple model for tsunami sedimentation that can be applied to calculate tsunami flow speed from the thickness and grain size of a tsunami deposit (the inverse problem). For sandy tsunami deposits where grain size and thickness vary gradually in the direction of transport, tsunami sediment transport is modeled as a steady, spatially uniform process. The amount of sediment in suspension is assumed to be in equilibrium with the steady portion of the long period, slowing varying uprush portion of the tsunami. Spatial flow deceleration is assumed to be small and not to contribute significantly to the tsunami deposit. Tsunami deposits are formed from sediment settling from the water column when flow speeds on land go to zero everywhere at the time of maximum tsunami inundation. There is little erosion of the deposit by return flow because it is a slow flow and is concentrated in topographic lows. Variations in grain size of the deposit are found to have more effect on calculated tsunami flow speed than deposit thickness. The model is tested using field data collected at Arop, Papua New Guinea soon after the 1998 tsunami. Speed estimates of 14 m/s at 200 m inland from the shoreline compare favorably with those from a 1-D inundation model and from application of Bernoulli's principle to water levels on buildings left standing after the tsunami. As evidence that the model is applicable to some sandy tsunami deposits, the model reproduces the observed normal grading and vertical variation in sorting and skewness of a deposit formed by the 1998 tsunami.     

A new landslide-induced tsunami simulation model and its application to the 1792 Unzen-Mayuyama landslide-and-tsunami disaster

By combining landslide dynamics research and tsunami research, we present an integrated series of numerical models quantitatively simulating the complete evolution of a landslide-induced tsunami. The integrated model simulating the landslide initiation and motion uses measured landslide dynamic parameters from a high-stress undrained dynamic-loading ring shear apparatus. It provides the numerical data of a landslide mass entering and moving under water to the tsunami simulation model as the trigger of tsunami. The series of landslide and tsunami simulation models were applied to the 1792 Unzen-Mayuyama megaslide and the ensuing tsunami disaster, which is the largest landslide disaster, the largest volcanic disaster, and the largest landslide-induced tsunami disaster to have occurred in Japan. Both the 1792 megaslide and the tsunami portions of the disaster are well documented, making this an excellent test of the reliability and precision of the new simulation model. The simulated tsunami heights at the coasts well match the historical tsunami heights recorded by “Tsunami-Dome-Ishi” (a stone showing the tsunami reaching point) and memorial stone pillars.     

A method for estimating casualties due to the tsunami inundation flow

This study develops a method for estimating the number of casualties that may occur while people evacuate from an inundation zone when a tsunami has inundated an area. The method is based on a simple model of hydrodynamic forces as they affect the human body. The method uses a Tsunami casualty index (TCI) computed at each grid point of a numerical tsunami model to determine locations and times within the tsunami inundation zone where evacuation during the tsunami inundation is not possible and therefore where casualties are likely to occur. The locations and times can be combined with information about population density to compute the potential number of casualties. This information is useful in developing tsunami evacuation routes that avoid such locations. To illustrate the method, it is applied to the Seattle waterfront in Washington State, USA, that is under the threat of possible tsunami disasters due to Seattle Fault earthquakes. Preliminary results suggest that the tsunami casualties may occur within the Seattle waterfront for 15 min, during the time interval from 3 to 18 min after a large Seattle Fault tsunami is generated when the background tide level is mean high water.     

Numerical simulation of erosion and deposition at the Thailand Khao Lak coast during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

A case study was conducted for the Thailand Khao Lak coast using a forward numerical model to understand uncertainties associated with interpreting tsunami deposits and relating them to their tsunami sources. We examined possible effects of the characteristics of tsunami source, multiple waves, sediment supply and local land usages. Numerical results showed that tsunami-deposit extent and thickness could be indicative of the slip value in the source earthquake near the surveyed coastal locations, provided that the sediment supply is unlimited and all the deposits are well preserved. Deposit thickness was found to be largely controlled by the local topography and could be easily modified by backwash flows or subsequent tsunami flows. Between deposit extent and deposit thickness, using deposit extent to interpret the characteristics of a tsunami source is preferable. The changing of land usages between two tsunami events could be another important factor that can significantly alter deposit thickness. There is a need to develop inversion models based on tsunami heights and/or run-up data for studying paleotsunamis.     

Tsunami in the last 15 years: a bibliometric analysis with a detailed overview and future directions

In the last fifteen years, tsunami science has progressed at a rapid pace. Three major tsunamis: The Indian Ocean in 2004, the 2011 Tohoku tsunami, and the 2018 Palu tsunami were significant landmarks in the history of tsunami science. All the three tsunamis, as mentioned, suffered from either no warning or poor reception of the alerts issued. Various lessons learned, consequent numerical models proposed, post-2004 tsunami damage findings manifested into solutions. However, the misperceived solutions led to a disastrous impact of the 2011 Tohoku event. In the following years, numerous improvements in warning systems and community preparedness frameworks were proposed and implemented. The contributions and new findings have added multi-fold advancements to tsunami science progress. Later, the 2018 Palu tsunami happened and again led to a massive loss of life and property. The warning systems and community seemed un-prepared for this non-seismic tsunami. A significant change is to take place in tsunami science practices and solutions. The 2018 tsunami is one of the most discussed and researched events concerning the palaeotsunami records, damage assessment, and source findings. In the new era, using machine learning and deep learning prevails in all the fields related to tsunami science. This article presents a complete 15-year bibliometric analysis of tsunami research from Scopus and Web of Science (WoS). The review of majorly cited documents in the form of a progressing storyline has highlighted the need for multidisciplinary research to design and propose practical solutions.

     

Large Scale Rockfall Reach Susceptibility Maps in La Cabrera Sierra (Madrid) performed with GIS and Dynamic Analysis at 1:5,000

For the testing of the effect on the tsunami prevention facilities, a simplified methodfor tsunami risk assessment was suggested without wave run-up analysis. This methodis proposed using calculated offshore tsunami waveform and field reconnaissance suchas the seawall height, time necessary for residents' evacuation and tsunami warninginsurance. Then, two normalized values are evaluated; one is the ratio of calculatedmaximum tsunami height to seawall height, the other is the ratio of time betweentsunami over-topping and evacuation completion to total time required for evacuation.These two values are used to qualitatively estimate the safety of residents and the effectof tsunami prevention facilities, eliminating the necessity to compute complicatedtsunami run-up onshore.     

Tsunamis recorded in tide gauges at Costa Rica Pacific coast and their numerical modeling

Here we perform an inventory of tsunamis recorded by tide gauges in the Pacific coast of Costa Rica. This paper also reveals nine tsunami records that had not been published before, at Puntarenas tide gauge corresponding to the 1979 Colombia tsunami and at Quepos tide gauge corresponding to the 1985 Mexico twin tsunamis, the 2010, 2014 and 2015 Chile tsunamis, the 2006 Tonga tsunami, the 2011 Japan tsunami and the 2013 Solomon Islands tsunami. The original record of 1990 Cóbano tsunami at Quepos was digitized again at a higher resolution and re-processed. The arrival of 1979, 1985, 2006 and 2014 tsunamis to Costa Rica is not listed on tsunami catalogs. The maximum tsunami height obtained here after processing 1990, 2011 and 2013 records was higher than reported on catalogs. The opposite happened for the 2010 tsunami. Quepos gauge record for January 2007 was analyzed as it seemed to have registered the Kuril Islands tsunami, but the results were not conclusive due to the low sample rate and the small tsunami amplitude if any. All those eleven tsunamis were modeled and the results compared with the records. A good agreement was obtained for the Quepos gauge, although the modeled 2011 and 2013 tsunamis had a difference of 8 min on the arrival time. An acceptable agreement was obtained for the Puntarenas gauge for 1979 tsunami, considering at least the first 4 h of the marigram is lost.     

Numerical modeling of the morphological change in Lhok Nga, west Banda Aceh, during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami: understanding tsunami deposits using a forward modeling method

A coupled hydrostatic and morph-dynamic model COMCOT-SED was used to investigate the morphological change in Lhok Nga bay during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, and the coupled model predicted the thickness of tsunami deposits in agreement with the measured ones. The relationship between the characteristics of tsunami deposit and flow hydrodynamics was discussed in details. Phenomena such as landward thinning in deposit thickness, landward fining in grain size, and fining upwards in grain size are commonly used to identify tsunami deposits and were examined in this case study. We also discussed the effects of sediment supplies and the constraints that can be put on the earthquake parameters using the information derived from tsunami deposits. This study shows that the model presented in this paper is capable of simulating extreme tsunami events (tsunami wave height ~30?m) in a large domain and that forward models of tsunami sediment transport can be a promising tool to help tsunami geologists understand tsunami deposits.     

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment along Oman coast from submarine earthquakes in the Makran subduction zone

The Sultanate of Oman is among the Indian Ocean countries that were subjected to at least two confirmed tsunamis during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the 1945 tsunami due to an earthquake in the Makran subduction zone in the Sea of Oman (near-regional field tsunami) and the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, caused by an earthquake from the Andaman Sumatra subduction zone (far - field tsunami). In this paper, we present a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the entire coast of Oman from tectonic sources generated along the Makran subduction zone. The tsunami hazard is assessed taking into account the contribution of small- and large-event magnitudes. Results of the earthquake recurrence rate studies and the tsunami numerical modeling for different magnitudes were used through a logic-tree to estimate the tsunami hazard probabilities. We derive probability hazard exceedance maps for the Omani coast considering the exposure times of 100, 250, 500, and 1000 years. The hazard maps consist of computing the likelihood that tsunami waves exceed a specific amplitude. We find that the probability that a maximum wave amplitude exceeds 1 m somewhere along the coast of Oman reaches, respectively, 0.7 and 0.85 for 100 and 250 exposure times, and it is up to 1 for 500 and 1000 years of exposure times. These probability values decrease significantly toward the southern coast of Oman where the tsunami impact, from the earthquakes generated at Makran subduction zone, is low.     

Tsunami simulation due to seaquake at Manila Trench and Sulu Trench

Seaquake is a phenomenon where there are water disturbance at the sea, caused by earthquake or submarine eruption. The scope of this study focuses on tsunami simulation due to Manila Trench and Sulu Trench seaquake which is prone to harm Malaysia offshore areas. Manila Trench is a highly potential earthquake source that can generate tsunami in South China Sea. Meanwhile, Sulu Trench could be a threat to east of Sabah offshore areas. In this study, TUNA-M2 model was utilized to perform tsunami simulation at South China Sea and Sulu Sea. TUNA-M2 model applied Okada source model to create tsunami generation due to earthquake. It utilized linear shallow water equation during tsunami propagation with its radiant boundary condition. Five simulations performed at each study region. Forecast points at South China Sea areas were divided into three separate locations which are at the Peninsular Malaysia, west of Sabah and Sarawak offshore areas. Forecast points at Sulu Sea were focused at the east of Sabah offshore areas. This paper will present the simulation results of tsunami wave height and arrival time at various forecast points. The findings of this study show that the range of tsunami wave height at Sulu Sea is higher than that of South China Sea. The tsunami arrival time at Sulu Sea is less than South China Sea. It can be concluded that Sulu Sea poses worse tsunami threat than South China Sea to the Malaysian offshore areas.     

Run-up and Inundation Pattern Developed During the Indian Ocean Tsunami of December 26, 2004 Along the Coast of Tamilnadu (India)

The tsunami run-up, inundation and damage pattern observed along the coast of Tamilnadu (India) during the deadliest Indian Ocean tsunami of December 26, 2004 is documented in this paper. The tsunami caused severe damage and claimed many victims in the coastal areas of eleven countries, bordering the Indian Ocean. Along the coast of Indian mainland, the damage was caused by the tsunami only. Largest tsunami run-up and inundation was observed along the coast of Nagapattinam district and was about 10–12 m and 3.0 km, respectively. The measured inundation data were strongly scattered in direct relationship to the morphology of the seashore and the tsunami run-up. Lowest tsunami run-up and inundation was measured along the coast of Thanjavur, Puddukkotai and Ramnathpuram districts of Tamilnadu in the Palk Strait. The presence of shadow of Sri Lanka, the interferences of direct/receded waves with the reflected waves from Sri Lanka and Maldive Islands and variation in the width of continental shelf were the main cause of large variation in tsunami run-up along the coast of Tamilnadu.     

Probabilistic Analysis of Tsunami Hazards*

Determining the likelihood of a disaster is a key component of any comprehensive hazard assessment. This is particularly true for tsunamis, even though most tsunami hazard assessments have in the past relied on scenario or deterministic type models. We discuss probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) from the standpoint of integrating computational methods with empirical analysis of past tsunami runup. PTHA is derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), with the main difference being that PTHA must account for far-field sources. The computational methods rely on numerical tsunami propagation models rather than empirical attenuation relationships as in PSHA in determining ground motions. Because a number of source parameters affect local tsunami runup height, PTHA can become complex and computationally intensive. Empirical analysis can function in one of two ways, depending on the length and completeness of the tsunami catalog. For site-specific studies where there is sufficient tsunami runup data available, hazard curves can primarily be derived from empirical analysis, with computational methods used to highlight deficiencies in the tsunami catalog. For region-wide analyses and sites where there are little to no tsunami data, a computationally based method such as Monte Carlo simulation is the primary method to establish tsunami hazards. Two case studies that describe how computational and empirical methods can be integrated are presented for Acapulco, Mexico (site-specific) and the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline (region-wide analysis). * The U.S. Government’s right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

Global tsunami deposits database

The National Geophysical Data Center and co-located World Data Center for Geophysics and Marine Geology provide integrated access to historical tsunami event, deposit, and proxy data. Historical events are important for understanding the frequency and intensity of relatively recent tsunamis. Deposit data collected during post-tsunami field surveys provide information on tsunami erosion, sedimentation, flow depths, inundation, and run-up. Deposit data from prehistoric tsunami events extend the record to pre-recorded times, constrain tsunami recurrence intervals, and estimate the minimum magnitude of tsunami inundation. Proxies indicate that an event capable of producing a tsunami occurred, but are not direct evidence of a tsunami. All of these data are used to develop tsunami hazard assessments, provide guidance to warning centers, validate models, inform community preparedness efforts, and educate the public about tsunami risks.     

Far-Field Tsunami Potential and a Real-Time Forecast System for the Pacific Using the Inversion Method

Estimating tsunami potential is anessential part of mitigating tsunami disasters. Weproposed a new method to estimate the far-fieldtsunami potential by assuming faultmodels on the Pacific Rim. We find thata tsunami that generates in the areas wherethere is no tsunami in the history can damagethe Japanese coast. This shows that it isimportant to estimate tsunami potential byassuming fault models other than the pastearthquake data.Another important activity to mitigate tsunamidisasters is to provide appropriatewarnings to coastal communities when dangerfrom a tsunami is imminent. We applied anew inversion method using wavelet transformto a part of the real-time tsunami forecastsystem for the Pacific. Because this inversionmethod does not require fault location, it ispossible to analyze a tsunami in real timewithout all seismic information. In order tocheck the usability of the system, anumerical simulation was executed assuming anearthquake at sea off Taiwan. The correlationcoefficient for the estimated initialwaveform to the assumed one was calculatedto be 0.78. It takes 90 min to capturetime-series waveform data from tsunamigauges and 5 sec to estimate the 2-D initialwaveform using the inversion method. After that,it takes 2 minutes to forecast thetsunami heights at the Japanese coast. Since thesum of these times is less than the 105minutes transit time of the tsunami fromTaiwan to Japan, it is possible to give a warningto the residents before the tsunami attacksthe Japanese coast. Comparing the tsunamiheights forecasted by this system with thosecalculated by the fault model, the averageerror was 0.39 m. The average error ofthe arrival time was 0.007 min.     

The Makassar Strait Tsunamigenic Region,Indonesia

The Makassar Strait region has had the highest frequency of historical tsunamievents for Indonesia. The strait has a seismic activity due to the convergenceof four tectonic plates that produces a complex mixture of structures. The maintsunamigenic features in the Makassar Strait are the Palu-Koro and Pasternostertransform fault zones, which form the boundaries of the Makassar trough.Analysis of the seismicity, tectonics and historic tsunami events indicatesthat the two fault zones have different tsunami generating characteristics.The Palu-Koro fault zone involves shallow thrust earthquakes that generatetsunami that have magnitudes that are consistent with the earthquakemagnitudes. The Pasternoster fault zone involves shallower strike-slipearthquakes that produce tsunami magnitudes larger than would normallybe expected for the earthquake magnitude. The most likely cause for theincreased tsunami energy is considered to be submarine landslidesassociated with the earthquakes. Earthquakes from both fault zonesappear to cause subsidence of the west coast of Sulawesi Island.The available data were used to construct a tsunami hazard map whichidentifies the highest risk along the west coast of Sulawesi Island.The opposite side of the Makassar Strait has a lower risk because it isfurther from the historic tsunami source regions along the Sulawesicoast, and because the continental shelf dissipates tsunami wave energy.The greatest tsunami risk for the Makassar Strait is attributed tolocally generated tsunami due to the very short travel times.     

Tsunamis versus storm deposits from Thailand

Along the Andaman (west) coast of Thailand, the 2004 tsunami depositional features associated with the 2004 tsunami were used to describe the characteristics of tsunamis in a place far away from the effect of both recent and ancient storms. The current challenge is that a lack of precise sedimentological characteristics have been described that will differentiate tsunami deposits from storm deposits. Here, in sedimentological senses, we reviewed the imprints of the sedimentological characteristics of the 2004 tsunami and older deposits and then compared them with storm deposits, as analyzed from the deposits found along the eastern (Gulf of Thailand; GOT) coast of Thailand. We discuss the hydraulic conditions of the 2004 tsunami and its predecessors, on the Andaman coast, and compare them to storm flows found on the coast of the GOT. Similar to an extensive tsunami inflow deposit, a storm flow overwash has very similar sedimentary structures. Well-preserved sedimentary structures recognized in sand sheets from both tsunami and storms include single and multiple normal gradings, reverse grading, parallel, incline and foreset lamina, rip-up clasts, and mud drapes. All these sedimentary structures verify the similarity of tsunami and storm inflow behavior as both types of high-energy flow start to scour the beach zone. Antidunes are likely to be the only unique internal sedimentary structures observed in the 2004 tsunami deposit. Rip-up clasts are rare within storm deposits compared to tsunami deposits. We found that the deposition during the outflow from both tsunami and storms was rarely preserved, suggesting that it does not persist for very long in the geological record.     

Estimation of tsunami hazard from volcanic activity — Suggested methodology with Augustine volcano,Alaska as an example

A general approach for the estimation of tsunami height and hazard in the vicinity of active volcanoes has been developed. An empirical relationship has been developed to estimate the height of the tsunami generated for an eruption of a given size. This relationship can be used to estimate the tsunami hazard based on the frequency of eruptive activity of a particular volcano. This technique is then applied to the estimation of tsunami hazard from the eruption of the Augustine volcano in Alaska. Modification of this approach to account for a less than satisfactory data base and differing volcanic characteristics is also discussed with the case of the Augustine volcano as an example. This approach can be used elsewhere with only slight modifications and, for the first time, provides a technique to estimate tsunami hazard from volcanic activity, similar to a well-established approach for the estimation of tsunami hazard from earthquake activity.     

Historic records of teletsunami in the Indian Ocean and insights from numerical modelling

Following the catastrophic “Great Sumatra–Andaman” earthquake- tsunami in the Indian Ocean on the 26th December 2004, questions have been asked about the frequency and magnitude of tsunami within the region. We present a summary of the previously published lists of Indian Ocean Tsunami (IOT) and the results of a preliminary search of archival materials held at the India Records Office, at the British Library in London. We demonstrate that in some cases, normal tidal movements and floods associated with tropical cyclones have been erroneously listed as tsunami. We summarise archival material for tsunami that occurred in 1945, 1941, 1881, 1819, 1762 and a little known tsunami in 1843. We present the results of modelling of the 2004, 1861 and 1833 tsunami generated by earthquakes off Sumatra and the 1945 Makran earthquake and tsunami, and examine how these results help to explain some of the historical observations. The highly directional component to tsunami propagation illustrated by the numerical models may explain why we are unable to locate archival records of the 1861 and 1833 tsunami at important locations like Rangoon, Kolkata (formally Calcutta) and Chennai (formally Madras), despite reports that these events created large tsunami that inundated western Sumatra. The numerical models identify other areas (particularly the central and southern Indian Ocean islands) where the 1833 tsunami may have had a large enough effect to produce a historic record. We recommend further archival research, coastal geological investigations of tsunami impacts and detailed modelling of tsunami propagation to better understand the record and effects of tsunami in the Indian Ocean and to estimate their likelihood of occurring in the future.     

Analysis of the global tsunami data for vulnerability and risk assessment

For the assessment of tsunami risk and vulnerability, one has to make use of past tsunami observations. The most comprehensive tsunami databases for the world have been prepared by the National Geophysical Data Center of USA which are listed on their website for all the four oceans as well as the following marginal seas: Caribbean Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea, Red Sea and Gulf of Mexico. The dataset goes back as far as the first century AD and lists the events on a confidence rating scale of 0–4; 0 being an erroneous entry and 4 being a definite tsunami. Based on these various datasets for different geographical areas, a comprehensive global dataset was prepared in this study, which included only tsunami events with confidence rating of 3 and 4, meaning either probable or definite. In this composite and abridged global tsunami database there is no distinction either according to geography or tsunami strength as implied by its impact on the coast. A simple and straightforward statistical analysis suggests an almost complete randomness and no patterns that can be used for future tsunami predictions with a few minor exceptions.