Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater levels on the Kerdi-Shirazi plain,Iran

It is important to predict how groundwater levels in an aquifer will respond to various climate change scenarios to effectively plan for how groundwater resources will be used in the future. Due to the overuse of groundwater resources and the multi-year drought in the Kerdi-Shirazi plain in Iran, some land subsidence and a drop in groundwater levels has taken place, and without active management, further degradation of the groundwater resource is possible under predicted future climate change scenarios in the country. To determine the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater levels in the region, the groundwater model GMS was coupled with the atmospheric circulation model HADCM3 using scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 for the period 2016–2030. The results of the climate modelling suggest that the Kerdi-Shirazi plain will experience an increase in minimum temperature and maximum temperature of, respectively, between 0.03 and 0.47, and 0.32–0.45 °C for this time period. The results of the groundwater modelling suggest that water levels on the Kerdi-Shirazi plain will continue to decline over the forecast period with decreases of 34.51, 36.57 and 33.58 m being predicted, respectively, for climate scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. Consequently, groundwater resources in the Kerdi-Shirazi plain will urgently need active management to minimize the effects of ongoing water level decline and to prevent saltwater intrusion and desertification in the region.     

Modelling the response of shallow groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain,China

A three-dimensional groundwater flow model was implemented to quantify the temporal variation of shallow groundwater levels in response to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios over the next 40 years (2011–2050) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) Plain, China. Groundwater plays a key role in the water supply, but the Jing-Jin-Ji Plain is facing a water crisis. Groundwater levels have declined continuously over the last five decades (1961–2010) due to extensive pumping and climate change, which has resulted in decreased recharge. The implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) will provide an opportunity to restore the groundwater resources. The response of groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios has been quantified using a groundwater flow model. The impacts of climate change were based on the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP’s) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset for future high (A2), medium (A1B), and low (B1) greenhouse gas scenarios; precipitation data from CMIP3 were applied in the model. The results show that climate change will slow the rate of decrease of the shallow groundwater levels under three climate-change scenarios over the next 40 years compared to the baseline scenario; however, the shallow groundwater levels will rise significantly (maximum of 6.71 m) when considering scenarios that combine climate change and restrictions on groundwater exploitation. Restrictions on groundwater exploitation for water resource management are imperative to control the decline of levels in the Jing-Jin-Ji area.     

Climate change and groundwater resources in Cambodia

Climate change has become a major global concern and threatens the security of natural environmental resources, including groundwater, especially for Cambodia. In this study, literature reviews related to climate change and groundwater resources in Cambodia were evaluated to address the impact of climate change on the groundwater environment. In Cambodia, global climate change will likely affect available water resources by driving changes in the groundwater recharge and usage pattern. Despite a general increase in the mean annual rainfall, a reduction in rainfall is anticipated during the dry season, which could lead to shortages of fresh water during the dry season. The impact of climate change on water resource environments can significantly affect national economic development. Thus, strategic management plansfor groundwater in response to climate change should be established to ensure the security of water resources in Cambodia.     

Alleviating drought and water scarcity in the Mediterranean region through managed aquifer recharge

Drought and water scarcity can significantly impair the sustainable development of groundwater resources, a scenario commonly found in aquifers in the Mediterranean region. Water management measures to address these drivers of groundwater depletion are highly relevant, especially considering the increasing severity of droughts under climate change. This study evaluates the potential of managed aquifer recharge (MAR) to offset the adverse effects of drought and water scarcity on groundwater storage. Los Arenales aquifer (central Spain), which was unsustainably exploited for irrigation in the second half of the twentieth century, is employed as a case study. Two neighbouring zones within this aquifer are contrasted, namely, Los Arenales (LA) and Medina del Campo (MC). The primary difference between them in terms of water resources management is the wide-scale implementation of MAR systems in LA since the early 2000s. Several groundwater statistical methods are used. Groundwater-level trend analysis and average piezometric levels show in LA a faster recovery of aquifer storage and less susceptibility to drought compared to MC. On the other hand, standardised precipitation indexes and standardised groundwater level indexes of detrended groundwater-level time series, which do not include the effects of MAR, show that LA can be more negatively affected by drought and groundwater abstraction. The sharper recovery of piezometric levels in LA when considering MAR, and bigger drought impacts observed when the effects of this measure are removed, demonstrate that MAR can effectively alleviate the impacts of water scarcity and drought, providing an adaptation solution to climate change worldwide.

     

Groundwater resources assessment using numerical model: A case study in low-lying coastal area

The impacts of climate change and human pressure in groundwater have been greatest threats facing small islands. This paper represents a case study of groundwater responses towards the climate change and human pressures in Manukan Island Malaysia. SEAWAT-2000 was used for the simulations of groundwater response in study area. Simulations of six scenarios representing climate change and human pressures showed changes in hydraulic heads and chloride concentrations. Reduction in pumping rate and an increase in recharge rate can alter the bad effects of overdrafts in Manukan Island. In general, reduction in pumping rate and an increase in recharge rate are capable to restore and protect the groundwater resources in Manukan Island. Thus, for groundwater management options in Manukan Island, scenario 2 is capable to lessen the seawater intrusion into the aquifer and sustain water resources on a long-term basis. The selection of scenario 6 is the preeminent option during wet season. The output of this study provides a foundation which can be used in other small islands of similar hydrogeological condition for the purpose of groundwater resources protection.     

Climate change and groundwater resources in China

Water resources play an important role in supporting the economic and social development of China. The impact of climate change on water resources has become a bottleneck in this process, especially for major projects, with surface water and groundwater systems experiencing considerable impacts. The annual natural recharge of fresh groundwater is 8 840×10~8 m~3, which accounts for approximately 31% of the water resources. Groundwater is the most significant water source for many cities and energy bases, and it is also the main source acting as a buffer against extreme climate events caused by climate change. However, most of the groundwater in China buried deeply and unevenly, which increases the difficulty of investigating and exploiting this resource.This paper illustrates the general conditions of China water resources and hydrogeological hazards, such as karst sinkholes, surface subsidence, and soil salinization, caused by climate change, El Nino, La Nina, other climate events and human activities and presents the regulatory measures enacted to mitigate these issues in China.The China Geological Survey(CGS) has organized professional teams to investigate and evaluate groundwater resources and the environment since 1999. Based on these investigations, the total quantity, expected exploitable quantity and current exploited quantity of groundwater in whole China have been evaluated. In addition, an evaluation of the groundwater pollution caused by climate change throughout China and key areas has been conducted. At present, the CGS is conducting national groundwater monitoring projects and establishing regional engineering and technical measures for water resource exploitation and utilization.     

Impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in Küçük Menderes River Basin in Western Turkey

Groundwater is an important component of the global freshwater supply and is affected by climate. There is a strong need to understand and evaluate the impacts of climate change over the long term, in order to better plan and manage precious groundwater resources. Turkey, located in Mediterranean basin, is threatened by climate change. The purpose of this study was, through a quantitative overview, to determine the impacts of climate change on the groundwater recharge rates in Küçük Menderes River Basin in western Turkey. According to the data of Ödemi? and Selçuk meteorological stations located in the basin, there is a significantly decreasing trend in precipitation combined with increasing trends in temperature and evaporation observed in 1964–2011. The calculations of groundwater recharge with hydrologic budget method for the observation period showed an approximately 15% decline in groundwater recharge in the basin. Thus, the combined impacts of climate change and excessive groundwater pumping, due to increasing water demand, have caused a significant decline in groundwater levels. Consequently, the proper management of the groundwater resources threatened by climate change requires effective governance to both mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change and facilitate the adaptation of sustainable integrated water management policies.     

Impact of climate change on irrigation requirements in terms of groundwater resources

Climate change affects not only water resources but also water demand for irrigation. A large proportion of the world’s agriculture depends on groundwater, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. In several regions, aquifer resources face depletion. Groundwater recharge has been viewed as a by-product of irrigation return flow, and with climate change, aquifer storage of such flow will be vital. A general review, for a broad-based audience, is given of work on global warming and groundwater resources, summarizing the methods used to analyze the climate change scenarios and the influence of these predicted changes on groundwater resources around the world (especially the impact on regional groundwater resources and irrigation requirements). Future challenges of adapting to climate change are also discussed. Such challenges include water-resources depletion, increasing irrigation demand, reduced crop yield, and groundwater salinization. The adaptation to and mitigation of these effects is also reported, including useful information for water-resources managers and the development of sustainable groundwater irrigation methods. Rescheduling irrigation according to the season, coordinating the groundwater resources and irrigation demand, developing more accurate and complete modeling prediction methods, and managing the irrigation facilities in different ways would all be considered, based on the particular cases.     

Climate change and groundwater resources in Myanmar

Myanmar is located in Southeast Asia within the Mekong River Basin. The estimated annual surface and groundwater potentials are 1 081 km3 and 494 km3, respectively. Based on geological conditions, 11 different types of aquifers have been classified in Myanmar. The recent alluvial formation, Irrawaddy formation, Upper Pegu Group and Plateau limestone formation are the major water-bearing geologic formations of the country. In Myanmar, 89% of the groundwater is used for agriculture, approximately 8% is used for domestic consumption, and 3% is used for industrial purposes. Climate change projections for Myanmar from 2001 to 2100 predict general increases in temperature, clear-sky days, rainfall variability and flooding risks and a greater occurrence and intensity of extreme weather events across the country. Additional technology and investments are required to achieve groundwater resource security in response to climate changes. In addition, methods of ensuring the sustainability of groundwater resources must be implemented via collaborations with other countries and international sources.     

Impact of climate change on waterlogging and salinity distributions in Huai Khamrian subwatershed, NE Thailand

Regional climate models project significant changes in temperature and rainfall over the Greater Mekong Subregion over the twenty-first century. The potential impacts of climate change on areas affected by waterlogging and shallow saline groundwater in Northeast Thailand was investigated using the variable density groundwater model SEAWAT supported with recharge estimates derived from the hydrologic model HELP3. The focal area is the 154 km² Huai Kamrian subwatershed. Changes in groundwater salinity and waterlogging areas at the middle and end of this century were predicted using the calibrated model. These predictions used the dynamically downscaled PRECIS regional climate change scenarios generated by ECHAM4 GCM A2 and B2 scenarios. Recharge rates are predicted to increase as a result of the higher intensity of rainfall. Shallow watertable areas are projected to increase by approximately 23 % from existing conditions during the middle of the century and up to 25 % by the end of this century. Although the precise rate and timing of climate change impacts are uncertain, all of the scenarios clearly point towards an extension in the area of waterlogging and area affected by shallow saline groundwater areas. Given that areas affected by shallow saline watertables are predicted to expand for both climate change scenarios as well as for the base case, it is concluded that climate change will have a significant impact on the area affected by salinity and waterlogging areas for both climate change scenarios. Evaluation of management options that explore the adaptation to saline environments and to means to reduce salt affected areas are required.     

Influence of flooding on groundwater flow in central Cambodia

Cambodia is affected by flooding from the Mekong, Tonle Sap and Bassac rivers every year, which harms human populations and damages property, as well as alters the water quality in aquifer systems. The objective of this paper is to highlight the effects of river flooding on groundwater flow using numerical simulation. A two-dimensional groundwater flow model coupled with a groundwater recharge model was applied to the research area in central Cambodia. River level variation was included in model processes, and flood areas and periods were assigned. The results showed that during flooding periods, floodwater from the three rivers played an important role in recharging groundwater. During the dry season, Tonle Sap River received groundwater supply from the northwest, and levels in the Bassac and Mekong River dropped to lower than the groundwater level. This study improves understanding of the surface water and groundwater flow system in the study area.     

Farmers’ assessments of private adaptive measures to climate change and influential factors: a study in the Mekong Delta,Vietnam

Adaptation to climate change in agricultural settings depends on understanding farmers’ perceptions of the nature of climate change, their agency in adapting and the efficacy of adaptive measures themselves. Such knowledge can improve mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study addresses the limited understanding of how farmers appraise their private adaptive measures and influential factors. It uses data from structured interviews with 598 rice farmers in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Based on protection motivation theory, farmers’ assessments of private adaptive measures were measured by perceived self-efficacy, perceived adaptation efficacy and perceived adaptation cost. Multiple regressions were used to understand significant factors affecting those assessments. Some demographic and socio-economic factors, belief in climate change, information and objective resources were found to influence farmers’ adaptation assessments. It is shown that the sources and quality of information are particularly important. The improvement of both the accessibility and usefulness of local services (e.g. irrigation, agricultural extension, credit and health care) is deemed a necessity for successful adaptation strategies in the Mekong Delta. The paper also shows the application of PMT in measuring farmers’ appraisals of private adaptive measures to climate change, thereby opening this area for further research.     

Present groundwater status in Egypt and the environmental impacts

This article is an attempt to give a brief review on the status of groundwater studies in Egypt, their results, and the present plans for groundwater development that are usually based on the hydrogeological characteristics of the groundwater resources as well as on the environmental control of the discharge area.In terms of groundwater hydrology, Egypt can be divided into the following groundwater provinces: (1) the Western Desert, (2) the Eastern Desert, (3) the Nile Valley including the delta, (4) the Sinai Peninsula, (5) the Northern Coastal Zone, and (6) Wadi El-Natrun.The studies of volume and nature of groundwater and the environmental impact studies that were carried out in each of these provinces differed according to the importance given to development of projects in areas of interest and to the availability of funds. Recent studies and the surveys conducted for groundwater hydrological research by local and international organizations are described separately for each province. Special reference is made to groundwater hydro-geological setting, groundwater resources evaluation, and present and future utilization. The New Valley is the largest Egyptian irrigated agricultural development project that is solely dependent on groundwater resources. An outline showing its nature, objective, and size is included as an example of groundwater development.     

Sustainable groundwater development in the coastal Tra Vinh province in Vietnam under saltwater intrusion and climate change

Three-dimensional transient groundwater flow and saltwater transport models were constructed to assess the impacts of groundwater abstraction and climate change on the coastal aquifer of Tra Vinh province (Vietnam). The groundwater flow model was calibrated with groundwater levels (2007–2016) measured in 13 observation wells. The saltwater transport model was compared with the spatial distribution of total dissolved solids. Model performance was evaluated by comparing observed and simulated groundwater levels. The projected rainfalls from two climate models (MIROC5 and CRISO Mk3.6) were subsequently used to simulate possible effects of climate changes. The simulation revealed that groundwater is currently depleted due to overabstraction. Towards the future, groundwater storage will continue to be depleted with the current abstraction regime, further worsening in the north due to saltwater intrusion from inland trapped saltwater and on the coast due to seawater intrusion. Notwithstanding, the impact from climate change may be limited, with the computed groundwater recharge from the two climate models revealing no significant change from 2017 to 2066. Three feasible mitigation scenarios were analyzed: (1) reduced groundwater abstraction by 25, 35 and 50%, (2) increased groundwater recharge by 1.5 and 2 times in the sand dunes through managed aquifer recharge (reduced abstraction will stop groundwater-level decline, while increased recharge will restore depleted storage), and (3) combining 50% abstraction reduction and 1.5 times recharge increase in sand dune areas. The results show that combined interventions of reducing abstraction and increasing recharge are necessary for sustainable groundwater resources development in Tra Vinh province.

     

A comparison of stochastic and deterministic downscaling methods for modelling potential groundwater recharge under climate change in East Anglia, UK: implications for groundwater resource management

Groundwater resource estimates require the calculation of recharge using a daily time step. Within climate-change impact studies, this inevitably necessitates temporal downscaling of global or regional climate model outputs. This paper compares future estimates of potential groundwater recharge calculated using a daily soil-water balance model and climate-change weather time series derived using change factor (deterministic) and weather generator (stochastic) methods for Coltishall, UK. The uncertainty in the results for a given climate-change scenario arising from the choice of downscaling method is greater than the uncertainty due to the emissions scenario within a 30-year time slice. Robust estimates of the impact of climate change on groundwater resources require stochastic modelling of potential recharge, but this has implications for groundwater model runtimes. It is recommended that stochastic modelling of potential recharge is used in vulnerable or sensitive groundwater systems, and that the multiple recharge time series are sampled according to the distribution of contextually important time series variables, e.g. recharge drought severity and persistence (for water resource management) or high recharge years (for groundwater flooding). Such an approach will underpin an improved understanding of climate change impacts on sustainable groundwater resource management based on adaptive management and risk-based frameworks.     

Impacts of sea-level rise and urbanization on groundwater availability and sustainability of coastal communities in semi-arid South Texas

The sea levels along the semi-arid South Texas coast are noted to have risen by 3–5 mm/year over the last five decades. Data from General Circulation Models (GCMs) indicate that this trend will continue in the 21st century with projected sea level rise in the order of 1.8–5.9 mm/year due to the melting of glaciers and thermal ocean expansion. Furthermore, the temperature in South Texas is projected to increase by as much as 4 °C by the end of the 21st century creating a greater stress on scarce water resources of the region. Increased groundwater use hinterland due to urbanization as well as rising sea levels due to climate change impact the freshwater-saltwater interface in coastal aquifers and threaten the sustainability of coastal communities that primarily rely on groundwater resources. The primary goal of this study was to develop an integrated decision support framework to assist land and water planners in coastal communities to assess the impacts of climate change and urbanization. More specifically, the developed system was used to address whether coastal side (primarily controlled by climate change) or landward side processes (controlled by both climate change and urbanization) had a greater control on the saltwater intrusion phenomenon. The decision support system integrates a sharp-interface model with information from GCMs and observed data and couples them to statistical and information-theoretic uncertainty analysis techniques. The developed decision support system is applied to study saltwater intrusion characteristics at a small coastal community near Corpus Christi, TX. The intrusion characteristics under various plausible climate and urbanization scenarios were evaluated with consideration given to uncertainty and variability of hydrogeologic parameters. The results of the study indicate that low levels of climate change have a greater impact on the freshwater-saltwater interface when the level of urbanization is low. However, the rate of inward intrusion of the saltwater wedge is controlled more so by urbanization effects than climate change. On a local (near coast) scale, the freshwater-saltwater interface was affected by groundwater production locations more so than the volume produced by the community. On a regional-scale, the sea level rise at the coast was noted to have limited impact on saltwater intrusion which was primarily controlled by freshwater influx from the hinterlands towards the coast. These results indicate that coastal communities must work proactively with planners from the up-dip areas to ensure adequate freshwater flows to the coast. Field monitoring of this parameter is clearly warranted. The concordance analysis indicated that input parameter sensitivity did not change across modeled scenarios indicating that future data collection and groundwater monitoring efforts should not be hampered by noted divergences in projected climate and urbanization patterns.     

Modeling of seawater intrusion in a coastal aquifer of Karaburun Peninsula,western Turkey

Seawater intrusion is a major problem to freshwater resources especially in coastal areas where fresh groundwater is surrounded and could be easily influenced by seawater. This study presents the development of a conceptual and numerical model for the coastal aquifer of Karareis region (Karaburun Peninsula) in the western part of Turkey. The study also presents the interpretation and the analysis of the time series data of groundwater levels recorded by data loggers. The SEAWAT model is used in this study to solve the density-dependent flow field and seawater intrusion in the coastal aquifer that is under excessive pumping particularly during summer months. The model was calibrated using the average values of a 1-year dataset and further verified by the average values of another year. Five potential scenarios were analyzed to understand the effects of pumping and climate change on groundwater levels and the extent of seawater intrusion in the next 10 years. The result of the analysis demonstrated high levels of electrical conductivity and chloride along the coastal part of the study area. As a result of the numerical model, seawater intrusion is simulated to move about 420 m toward the land in the next 10 years under “increased pumping” scenario, while a slight change in water level and TDS concentrations was observed in “climate change” scenario. Results also revealed that a reduction in the pumping rate from Karareis wells will be necessary to protect fresh groundwater from contamination by seawater.     

Modeling and assessing land-use and hydrological processes to future land-use and climate change scenarios in watershed land-use planning

Effective information regarding environmental responses to future land-use and climate change scenarios provides useful support for decision making in land use planning, management and policies. This study developed an approach for modeling and examining the impacts of future land-use and climate change scenarios on streamflow, surface runoff and groundwater discharge using an empirical land-use change model, a watershed hydrological model based on various land use policies and climate change scenarios in an urbanizing watershed in Taiwan. The results of the study indicated that various demand and conversion policies had different levels of impact on hydrological components in all land-use scenarios in the study watershed. Climate changes were projected to have a greater impact in increasing surface runoff and reducing groundwater discharge than are land use changes. Additionally, the spatial distributions of land-use changes also influenced hydrological processes in both downstream and upstream areas, particularly in the downstream watershed. The impacts on hydrological components when considering both land use and climate changes exceeded those when only considering land use changes or climate changes, particularly on surface runoff and groundwater discharge. However, the proposed approach provided a useful source of information for assessing the responses of land use and hydrological processes to future land use and climate changes.     

Hydrogeological investigation of shallow aquifers in an arid data-scarce coastal region (El Daba’a,northwestern Egypt)

Hydrogeological investigations in arid regions are particularly important to support sustainable development. The study area, El Daba’a in northwestern Egypt, faces scarce water resources as a result of reported climate change that particularly affects the southern Mediterranean coast and increases stress on the local groundwater reserves. This change in climate affects the area in terms of drought, over-pumping and unregulated exploration of groundwater for irrigation purposes. The hydrogeological investigation is based on a multidisciplinary data-layer analysis that includes geomorphology, geology, slope, drainage lines, soil type, structural lineaments, subsurface data, stable isotopes, and chemical analyses. The study area contains Pleistocene and middle Miocene marine limestone aquifers. Based on lithology and microfacies analysis, the middle Miocene aquifer is subdivided into two water-bearing zones. The area is affected by sets of faults and anticline folds, and these structures are associated with fractures and joints that increase permeability and facilitate the recharge of groundwater. Stable isotope data indicate that groundwater of both the Pleistocene and middle Miocene aquifers is recharged by modern precipitation. The high salinity values observed in some groundwater wells that tap both aquifers could be attributed to leaching and dissolution processes of marine salts from the aquifers’ marine limestone matrix. In addition, human activities can also contribute to an increase in groundwater salinity. A future water exploration strategy, based on the results from the multidisciplinary data-layer analysis, is proposed for the area. The derived scientific approach is transferable to other arid coastal areas with comparable conditions.     

地下水对气候变化的敏感性研究进展

地下水是人类生活、生产、生态用水的重要水源。地下水含水层的补给及其开发利用是水资源可持续开发利用与管理的重要组成部分。浅层地下水的补给主要受制于气候变异与变化。气候变化影响研究从地表水扩展至地下水不仅有利于正确地评估可利用的淡水资源,而且对于改进气候模型,更完整的描写水文循环有重要的科学意义。自21世纪以来,欧美等国开始研究不同时空尺度的地下水补给的定量估算方法,并在气候变化对水资源影响的研究中,考虑了气候变化与人类活动对地下水补给的影响。目前在我国,无论对地下水观测资料的诊断分析,或对地下水补给模型的研制都尚属空白或起步阶段。本文对当前国际上研究地下水补给以及地下水对气候变化敏感性的研究现状予以综述,目的是为了推动我国关于气候变化对水资源影响的深入研究。