Tephra fallout hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)

Tephra fallout associated with renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera is a serious threat to the Neapolitan area. In order to assess the hazards related with tephra loading, we have considered three different eruption scenarios representative of past activity: a high-magnitude event similar to the 4.1 ka Agnano-Monte Spina eruption, a medium-magnitude event, similar to the ∼3.8 ka Astroni 6 eruption, and a low-magnitude event similar to the Averno 2 eruption. The fallout deposits were reconstructed using the HAZMAP computational model, which is based on a semi-analytical solution of the two-dimensional advection–diffusion–sedimentation equation for volcanic tephra. The input parameters into the model, such as total erupted mass, eruption column height, and bulk grain-size and components distribution, were obtained by best-fitting field data. We carried out tens of thousands simulations using a statistical set of wind profiles, obtained from NOAA re-analysis. Probability maps, relative to the considered scenarios, were constructed for several tephra loads, such as 200, 300 and 400 kg/m². These provide a hazard assessment for roof collapses due to tephra loading that can be used for risk mitigation plans in the area.     

Volcanic hazard assessment at the restless Campi Flegrei caldera

Eruption forecasting and hazard assessments at the restless Campi Flegrei caldera, within the Neapolitan volcanic area, have been performed using stratigraphical, volcanological, structural and petrological data.On the basis of the reconstructed variation of eruption magnitude through time, we hypothesize that the most probable maximum expected event is a medium-magnitude explosive eruption, fed by trachytic magma. Such an eruption could likely occur in the north-eastern sector of the caldera floor that is under a tensile stress regime, when the ongoing deformation will generate mechanical failure of the rocks. A vent could open also in the western sector, at the intersection of two fault systems contemporaneously activated, as happened in the last eruption at Monte Nuovo. The eruption could likely be preceded by precursors apparent to the population, such as ground deformation, seismicity and increase in gas emissions. It will probably alternate between magmatic and phreatomagmatic phases with the generation of tephra fallout, and dilute and turbulent pyroclastic currents. During and/or after the eruption, the re-mobilization of ash by likely heavy rains, could probably generate mud flows.In order to perform a zoning of the territory in relation to the expected volcanic hazards, we have constructed a comprehensive hazard map. On this map are delimited (I) areas of variable probability of opening of a new vent, (II) areas which could be affected by variable load of fallout deposits, and (III) areas over which pyroclastic currents could flow. The areas in which a vent could likely open have been defined on the basis of the dynamics of the ongoing deformation of the caldera floor. To construct the fallout hazard map we have used the frequency of deposition of fallout beds thicker than 10 cm, the frequency of load on the ground by tephra fallout and the direction of dispersal axes of the deposits of the last 5 ka, and the limit load of collapse for the variable types of roof construction. The pyroclastic-current hazard map is based on the areal distribution and frequency of pyroclastic-current deposits of the last 5 ka.Editorial Responsibility: T. Druitt     

Evaluating fracture patterns within a resurgent caldera: Campi Flegrei, Italy

Understanding deformation of active calderas allows their dynamics to be defined and their hazard mitigated. The Campi Flegrei resurgent caldera (Italy) is one of the most active and hazardous volcanoes in the world, characterized by post-collapse resurgence, eruptions, ground deformation, and seismicity. An original structural analysis provides an overview of the main fracture zones. NW-SE and NE-SW fractures (normal or transtensive faults and extensional fractures) predominate along the rim and within the caldera, suggesting a regional control, both during and after the collapses. While the NE-SW fractures are ubiquitous in the deposits of the last ∼37 ka, NW-SE fractures predominate in the last 4.5 ka, during resurgence. The most recently (<4.5 ka) strained area lies in the caldera center (Solfatara area), where the faults, with an overall ∼ENE-WSW extension direction, appear to be associated with the bending due to resurgence. Solfatara lies immediately to the east of the most uplifted part of the caldera (Pozzuoli area), where domes form and culminate both on the long-term (resurgence, accompanied by volcanic activity) and short-term deformation (1982–1984 bradyseism, accompanied by seismic and hydrothermal activity). Similar volcano-tectonic behavior characterizes the short- and long-term uplifts, and only the intensity of the tectonic and volcanic activity varies, being related to varying amounts of uplift. Seismicity and hydrothermal manifestations occur during the bradyseisms, with moderate uplift, while surface faulting and eruptions occur during resurgence, with higher uplift. The features observed at Campi Flegrei are found at other major calderas, suggesting consistent behavior of large magmatic systems.     

A mechanical fluid-dynamical model for ground movements at Campi Flegrei caldera

We present here a consistent model, which explains the mechanisms of unrest phenomena at Campi Flegrei (Italy), both at short-term (years) and at secular scales. The model consists basically of two effects: the first one is related to the elastic response of the shallow crust to increasing pressure within a shallow magma chamber; the second involves the fluid-dynamics of shallow aquifers in response to increasing pressure and/or temperature at depth. The most important roles in the proposed model are played by the effect of lateral stress–strain discontinuities marking the inner caldera borders and by the response of the geothermal system to the increase of pressure and/or temperature coming from the magma chamber. The model takes into account most results of recent research, and it is able to explain in a unitary way most of geophysical observations recently collected at Campi Flegrei. Some new results, presented in this paper, explain the mechanism of generation of seismicity in terms of Coulomb stress changes, and the difference between secular and short-term deformations, in terms of the non linear effect of the bordering discontinuities. The coupled effects of magma chamber stresses with the dynamics of shallow fluids provide results for a semi-quantitative interpretation of observed ground deformation, seismicity and of their time evolution. The model has very important implications for the hazard assessment during unrest phenomena. It represents, for the part involving the fluid-dynamical response, the ideal continuation of the basic, fundamental models and intuitions of Oliveri del Castillo and coworkers (Oliveri del Castillo, A., Quagliariello, M.T., 1969. Sulla genesi del bradisimo flegro. Atti Associazione Geofisica Italiana, 18th Congress, Napoli, pp. 557–594; Casterano, L., Oliveri del Castillo, A., Quagliariello, M.T., 1976. Hydromdynamics and geodynamics in the Phlegraean Fields area of Italy. Nature, 264, 161–154).     

Modelling gravity variations consistent with ground deformation in the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)

In recent years (1970–72 and 1982–84) two inflation episodes took place in the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy), characterized by significant ground uplift and gravity variations. An elastic half-space model with vertical density stratification is employed to compute the displacement field and the gravity variations produced by the deformation of buried layers, following the inflation of a spherically symmetric deformation source. Contributions to gravity variations are produced by dilation/contraction of the medium, by the displacements of density interfaces (the free surface and subsurface layers) and of source boundaries and, possibly, by new mass input from remote distances into the source volume. Three cases were examined in detail: In case I, the magma chamber is identified as the deformation source and volume and pressure increase in the magma chamber is due to input of new magma from remote distances; in case II deformation is due to magma differentiation within the magma chamber (deformation source with constant mass); in case III the geothermal system is identified as the deformation source and a pressure increase, possibly driven by the exsolution of high temperature and high pressure volatiles in the magma chamber, is assumed to play a dominant role. From the comparison between measured and computed gravity residuals (free-air-corrected gravity variations) we can assess that, in case I, an inflation source with constant density would predict gravity residuals compatible with observations, whereas an expansion at constant mass (case II) would predict gravity residuals much lower than observed. The resolving power of gravity data however prevents accurate assessment of the density of the emplaced material. In case III, the pervasive density increase of the geothermal fluids induced by pressure increase is assumed to be the main source of gravity variations. The average porosity value required for this model to match both the ground deformation and the gravity residuals is found to be ˜10%, a value which is compatible with measured porosity values at Campi Flegrei in deep wells. The subsidence phases following both inflation episodes and the gravity residuals during subsidence lead us to consider case III as more plausible, even if a suitable combination of cases I and III cannot be discarded.     

Eruptive versus non-eruptive behaviour of large calderas: the example of Campi Flegrei caldera (southern Italy)

Caldera eruptions are among the most hazardous of natural phenomena. Many calderas around the world are active and are characterised by recurrent uplift and subsidence periods due to the dynamics of their magma reservoirs. These periods of unrest are, in some cases, accompanied by eruptions. At Campi Flegrei caldera (CFc), which is an area characterised by very high volcanic risk, the recurrence of this behaviour has stimulated the study of the rock rheology around the magma chamber, in order to estimate the likelihood of an eruption. This study considers different scenarios of shallow crustal behaviour, taking into account the earlier models of CFc ground deformation and caldera eruptions, and including recent geophysical investigations of the area. A semi-quantitative evaluation of the different factors that lead to magma storage or to its eruption (such as magma chamber size, wall-rock viscosity, temperature, and regional tectonic strain rate) is reported here for elastic and viscoelastic conditions. Considering the large magmatic sources of the CFc ignimbrite eruptions (400–2,000 km³) and a wall-rock viscosity between 10¹⁸ and 10²⁰ Pa s, the conditions for eruptive failure are difficult to attain. Smaller source dimensions (a few cubic kilometres) promote the condition for fracture (eruption) rather than for the flow of wall rock. We also analyse the influence of the regional extensional stress regime on magma storage and eruptions, and the thermal stress as a possible source of caldera uplift. The present study also emphasises the difficulty of distinguishing eruption and non-eruption scenarios at CFc, since an unambiguous model that accounts for the rock rheology, magma-source dimensions and locations and regional stress field influences is still lacking.     

Seismic images and rock properties of the very shallow structure of Campi Flegrei caldera (southern Italy)

In September 2001, an extensive active-seismic investigation (Serapis experiment) was carried out in the Gulfs of Naples and Pozzuoli, with the aim of investigating and reconstructing the shallow crustal structure of the Campi Flegrei caldera, and possibly identifying its feeding system at depth. The present study provides a joint analysis of the very shallow seismic reflection data and tomographic images based on the Serapis dataset. This is achieved by reflection seismic sections obtained by the 3D data gathering and through refined P-velocity images of the shallowest layer of Pozzuoli Gulf (z < 1,000 m). From the refined Vp model, the overall picture of the velocity distribution confirms the presence of a complex arc-shaped anomaly that borders the bay offshore. The deeper part of the anomaly (beneath 700 m, with Vp > 3,500 m/s) correlates with units made up of agglomerate tuffs and interbedded lava, which form the southern edge of the caldera, which was probably formed following the two large ignimbritic eruptions that marked the evolutionary history of the area under study. The upper part of the anomaly that tends to split into two parallel arcs is correlated with dikes, volcanic mounds and hydrothermal alteration zones noted in previous shallow reflection seismic analyses. The depth of the transition between the upper and lower parts of the anomaly is characterized by an abrupt Vp increase on the one-dimensional (1D) profiles extracted from the 3D tomographic model and by the presence of a strong reflector located at about 0.6/0.7 s Two Way Time (TWT) on Common Mid Point gathers. The move-out velocity analysis and stack of the P–P and P–S reflections at the layer bottom allowed to estimate relatively high Vp/Vs values (3.7 ± 0.9). This hypothesis has been tested by a theoretical rock physical modeling of the Vp/Vs ratio as a function of porosity suggesting that the shallow layer is likely formed by incoherent, water saturated, volcanic and marine sediments that filled Pozzuoli Bay during the post-caldera activity.     

Thermal state of the Campi Flegrei caldera inferred from seismic attenuation tomography

A three-dimensional Qp image of the Campi Flegrei caldera between 0 and 3 km of depth has been inferred by the inversion of P rise time and pulse width data of 87 local earthquakes recorded during the last bradiseismic crisis by a local array deployed in the area by the University of Wisconsin. The availability of both thermal measurements in 5 deep boreholes and of a heat flow surface map of the area allowed us to calibrate the local temperature F vs. Qp relationship. The comparison of Qp, Vp and Vp/Vs images, combined with hydrogeological and geochemical data from deep boreholes, allowed us to distinguish some low-Qp anomalies related to the presence of fluids in the rocks from a deep low-Qp anomaly related to the conductive cooling of a magma reservoir. The deep anomaly is located in the same zone where several authors believe that the volcanic and magmatic activity migrated after the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff eruption. Moreover this anomaly includes the area where the existence of a magma chamber at depth between 4 and 5 km was inferred by an active seismic experiment.     

Vertical ground movements in the Campi Flegrei caldera as a chaotic dynamic phenomenon

The ground level in the Campi Flegrei caldera has never been stationary in the last 2,000 years. Historical data, and a nearly continuous tide-gauge record 20 years long, show that uplift and sinking have taken place on a variety of different time scales. In addition, the Campi Flegrei volcanic system appears to be sensitive to weak external forces such as tidal forces. We infer from these elements that the Campi Flegrei system is far from thermodynamic equilibrium, and suggest that its dynamics may be chaotic. We analyze the short-term variations of the ground level, and find that they can be described in a low-dimensional phase space. The dynamics of the Campi Flegrei system seems to have been phase-locked with tidal forces in the period following the 1970–1972 climax, and to have undergone a transition to chaos in some moment that preceded the presently continuing sinking phase.     

Hydrothermal origin for sustained Long-Period (LP) activity at Campi Flegrei Volcanic Complex,Italy

We present a detailed analysis of the source properties of Long-Period (LP) signals recorded at Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy) during the last (2005–2006) mini-uplift episode. Moment Tensor inversion via full-waveform modelling of broad-band seismograms indicates a crack-like source with a significant volumetric component. From auto-regressive modelling of the signal's tail we evaluate the dominant frequency and the attenuation factor of the oscillating source. Considering the acoustic properties of a fluid-filled crack, these values are consistent with the resonant oscillations of a crack filled by a water–gas mixture at variable gas–volume fraction. For these fluids, the crack size would be on the order of 40–420 m, a size range which is consistent with the spatial spreading of LP hypocenters. Analysis of temporally-correlated time series of seismological and geochemical data indicates that climaxing of LP activity was preceded by swarms of volcano-tectonic (VT) events and rapidly followed by a consistent increase of both thermal emissions and gas fluxes recorded at the surface (1 month — 2/3 days, respectively). Following these observations, we propose a conceptual model where VT activity increases permeability of the medium, thus favouring fluid mobility. As a consequence, the hydrothermal system experiences pressure perturbations able to trigger its resonant, LP oscillations.     

BET_VH: exploring the influence of natural uncertainties on long-term hazard from tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei (Italy)

In this paper, we explore the effects of the intrinsic uncertainties upon long-term volcanic hazard by analyzing tephra fall hazard at Campi Flegrei, Italy, using the BET_VH model described in Marzocchi et al. (Bull Volcanol, 2010). The results obtained show that volcanic hazard based on the weighted average of all possible eruptive settings (i.e. size classes and vent locations) is significantly different from an analysis based on a single reference setting, as commonly used in volcanic hazard practice. The long-term hazard map for tephra fall at Campi Flegrei obtained here accounts for a wide spectrum of uncertainties which are usually neglected, largely reducing the bias intrinsically introduced by the choice of a specific reference setting. We formally develop and apply a general method to recursively integrate simulations from different models which have different characteristics in terms of spatial coverage, resolution and physical details. This outcome of simulations will be eventually merged with field data through the use of the BET_VH model.     

The 1538 Monte Nuovo eruption (Campi Flegrei,Italy)

On 29 September 1538 a week-long eruption began in Campi Flegrei forming a new volcano, Monte Nuovo. From contemporary accounts of the eruption, it has been possible to reconstruct the main phases of activity. These phases may be correlated with different depositional units identified in the field. The eruption opened with a hydromagmatic phase, during which a large amount of external water (meteoric or sea water) was able to interact with the magma. The exhaustion of the water supply and decrease in volatile content initiated a change in the dynamic conditions of eruption, which became more purely magmatic in character and less explosive.     

Spatial vent opening probability map of Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy)

We produce a spatial probability map of vent opening (susceptibility map) at Etna, using a statistical analysis of structural features of flank eruptions of the last 2?ky. We exploit a detailed knowledge of the volcano structures, including the modalities of shallow magma transfer deriving from dike and dike-fed fissure eruptions analysis on historical eruptions. Assuming the location of future vents will have the same causal factors as the past eruptions, we converted the geological and structural data in distinct and weighted probability density functions, which were included in a non-homogeneous Poisson process to obtain the susceptibility map. The highest probability of new eruptive vents opening falls within a N-S aligned area passing through the Summit Craters down to about 2,000?m?a.s.l. on the southern flank. Other zones of high probability follow the North-East, East-North-East, West, and South Rifts, the latter reaching low altitudes (～400?m). Less susceptible areas are found around the faults cutting the upper portions of Etna, including the western portion of the Pernicana fault and the northern extent of the Ragalna fault. This structural-based susceptibility map is a crucial step in forecasting lava flow hazards at Etna, providing a support tool for decision makers.     

Merging active and passive data sets in traveltime tomography: The case study of Campi Flegrei caldera (Southern Italy)

We propose a strategy for merging both active and passive data sets in linearized tomographic inversion. We illustrate this in the reconstruction of 3D images of a complex volcanic structure, the Campi Flegrei caldera, located in the vicinity of the city of Naples, southern Italy. The caldera is occasionally the site of significant unrests characterized by large ground uplifts and seismicity. The P and S velocity models of the caldera structure are obtained by a tomographic inversion based on travel times recorded during two distinct experiments. The first data set is composed of 606 earthquakes recorded in 1984 and the second set is composed of recordings for 1528 shots produced during the SERAPIS experiment in 2001. The tomographic inversion is performed using an improved method based on an accurate finite‐difference traveltime computation and a simultaneous inversion of both velocity models and earthquake locations. In order to determine the adequate inversion parameters and relative data weighting factors, we perform massive synthetic simulations allowing one to merge the two types of data optimally. The proper merging provides high resolution velocity models, which allow one to reliably retrieve velocity anomalies over a large part of the tomography area. The obtained images confirm the presence of a high P velocity ring in the southern part of the bay of Pozzuoli and extends its trace inland as compared to previous results. This annular anomaly represents the buried trace of the rim of the Campi Flegrei caldera. Its shape at 1.5 km depth is in good agreement with the location of hydrothermalized lava inferred by gravimetric data modelling. The Vp/Vs model confirms the presence of two characteristic features. At about 1 km depth a very high Vp/Vs anomaly is observed below the town of Pozzuoli and is interpreted as due to the presence of rocks that contain fluids in the liquid phase. A low Vp/Vs body extending at about 3–4 km depth below a large part of the caldera is interpreted as the top of formations that are enriched in gas under supercritical conditions.     

Structure and evolution of the Bay of Pozzuoli (Italy) using marine seismic reflection data: implications for collapse of the Campi Flegrei caldera

Digital marine seismic reflection data acquired in 1973 in the Bay of Pozzuoli, and recently reprocessed, were used to study the volcanological evolution of the marine sector of Campi Flegrei Caldera during the last 37 ka. In order to gain more information, interpretation also involved estimation of the "pseudo-velocity" and the "pseudo-density" from the resistivity logs of two onshore deep exploration wells. The main results are: (1) discovery of ancient pre-18 ka and post-37 ka submarine and mainly effusive volcanic activity, along coeval emission centers located at the edges of Campi Flegrei Caldera; (2) confirmation that the caldera collapse in the marine sector of Campi Flegrei seems strongly controlled by regional NE–SW and NW–SE structural discontinuities; (3) the finding of at least two episodes of collapse in the bay; and (4) identification of a post-18 ka volcanic deflation phase that has caused about 150–200 m of subsidence in the central sector of the Bay of Pozzuoli in the last 18 ka.Editorial responsibilty: T. Druitt     

Scaling of peak ground motions from digital recordings of small earthquakes at Campi Flegrei,southern Italy

The dependence of peak ground acceleration and velocity on seismic moment is studied for a set of small earthquakes (0.7<M _L<3.2) recorded digitally at distances of a few km in the Campi Flegrei volcanic area near Naples, Italy, during the ground uplift episode of 1982–1984. Numerical simulations, using the -square spectral model with constant stress drop and ane ^–kf high frequency decay, fit well both the velocity and acceleration data for an averagek=0.015. The observed ground motions in the 1–24 Hz frequency band appear to consist of radiation from simple sources modified only slightly by attenuation effects. Moreover, the scaling of peak values agrees closely with those determined in nonvolcanic areas, once the difference in stress drop is taken into account.     

A reappraisal of seismic Q evaluated in Campi Flegrei caldera. Receipt for the application to risk analysis

The civil defense of Italy and the European community have planned to reformulate the volcanic risk in several volcanic areas of Italy, among which Mt. Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei, by taking into account the possible occurrence of damaging pre- or syn-eruptive seismic events. Necessary to achieve this goal is the detailed knowledge of the local attenuation–distance relations. In the present note, we make a survey of the estimates of seismic quality factor (the inverse is proportional to the attenuation coefficient with distance) reported in literature for the area of Campi Flegrei where many, but sometimes contradictory results have been published on this topic. We try to review these results in order to give indications for their correct use when calculating the attenuation laws for this area.     

Hazard assessment at volcanic fields: the Campi Flegrei case history

Volcanological analysis of the 10 000 yr –1538 explosive activity at Campi Flegrei shows that the most common explosive eruptions are characterized by the emplacement of flow or surge deposits, originating from the interaction between magma and shallow and/or sea water. The minimum volumes of pyroclastic products range between 0.04 and 0.7 km³; the proximal areas covered by these products range from 3–4 to 40–50 km². The pyroclastic flow and surge deposits occurring inside the caldera have been strongly controlled by pre-existent morphology; because of this, the area of present Napoli city was blanketed by approximately 5 m of pyroclastic deposits, during the last 5000 yr.Previous analysis suggests that the presence of even very low topographic obstacles may influence pyroclastic density current run out such that future eruptive deposits would mainly be confined inside the caldera rim. We suggest that a future eruption at Campi Flegrei would not seriously involve the urbanized area of Napoli city located on the hills. On the contrary, the plains located on the eastern side of the caldera (Fuorigrotta, Bagnoli) would be the most damaged area.     

Q c of three component seismograms of volcanic microearthquakes at Campi Flegrei volcanic area — Southern Italy

Digital recordings of three component microearthquake codas from shallow seismic events in the volcanic region of Campi Flegrei — Southern Italy — were used with an automatic technique to calculate the attenuation factorQ _c (codaQ) in the hypothesis of singleS toS backscattering.Results show the same value ofQ for each of the three components. This result is interpreted as due to isotropicS wave radiation pattern.A check of the coda method was performed using a single station method based on simple assumptions on the direct SH wave spectrum. Single stationQ was averaged over the stations and over the earthquakes. Results show that the two methods lead to comparable results.A frequency dependence quite different from that evaluated in active tectonic regions was found for coda attenuation, comparable to other volcanic areas throughout the world. This is interpreted as due to the presence of magma that affects anelasticity and scattering.