A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series for volcanic hazard estimations: Applications to active polygenetic volcanoes

The probabilistic analysis of volcanic eruption time series is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk. Such series describe complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series is proposed for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions. The first step of the analysis is to characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes. As is the case in most natural phenomena, lower magnitude events are more frequent, and the behavior of the eruption series may be biased by such events. On the other hand, eruptive series are commonly studied using conventional statistics and treated as homogeneous Poisson processes. However, time-dependent series, or sequences including rare or extreme events, represented by very few data of large eruptions require special methods of analysis, such as the extreme-value theory applied to non-homogeneous Poisson processes. Here we propose a general methodology for analyzing such processes attempting to obtain better estimates of the volcanic hazard. This is done in three steps: Firstly, the historical eruptive series is complemented with the available geological eruption data. The linking of these series is done assuming an inverse relationship between the eruption magnitudes and the occurrence rate of each magnitude class. Secondly, we perform a Weibull analysis of the distribution of repose time between successive eruptions. Thirdly, the linked eruption series are analyzed as a non-homogeneous Poisson process with a generalized Pareto distribution as intensity function. As an application, the method is tested on the eruption series of five active polygenetic Mexican volcanoes: Colima, Citlaltépetl, Nevado de Toluca, Popocatépetl and El Chichón, to obtain hazard estimates.     

Geochronology of Mount Morning, Antarctica: two-phase evolution of a long-lived trachyte-basanite-phonolite eruptive center

Mount Morning is a Cenozoic, alkaline eruptive center in the south-west Ross Sea, Antarctica. New ages on 17 Mount Morning volcanic rocks (combined with 34 existing ages) allows division of Mount Morning volcanism into two phases, erupted between at least 18.7 Ma and 11.4 Ma, and 6.13 and 0.02 Ma. The position of Mount Morning on the active West Antarctic Rift System within the stationary Antarctic plate is a key factor in the eruptive center’s longevity. The earliest, mildly alkaline, Phase I volcanism comprises predominantly trachytic rocks produced by combined assimilation and fractional crystallization processes over 7.3 m.y. Strongly alkaline Phase II volcanism is dominated by a basanite – phonolite lineage, with the youngest (post last glacial maximum) activity dominated by small volume primitive basanite eruptions. The evolution from mildly to strongly alkaline chemistry between phases reflects magma residence time in the crust, the degree of mantle melting, or the degree of magma—country-rock interaction. Phase I magmatism occurred over a comparable area to the present-day, Phase II shield. The 5.2 m.y. volcanic hiatus separating Phase I and II coincides with a cycle of eruption and glacial erosion at the nearby Minna Bluff eruptive center. Mount Morning is the likely source of volcanic detritus in Cape Roberts drill-core (about 24.1 to 18.4 Ma) and in ANDRILL drill-hole 1B (about 13.6 Ma), located 170 km north and 105 km north-east respectively, of Mount Morning. Based upon the timing of eruptions and high heat-flow, Mount Morning should be considered a dormant volcano.     

Phreatomagmatic eruptions associated with the caldera collapse during the Miyakejima 2000 eruption,Japan

The 2000 AD eruption of Miyakejima was characterized by a series of phreatomagmatic eruptions from the subsiding caldera. Six major eruptive events occurred, and they can be divided into the first and second periods separated by a 25-day hiatus. The phreatomagmatic eruptions produced a total of ~ 2 × 10¹⁰ kg of tephra, which mainly comprised fine-grained volcanic ash. The tephra layers could be divided into six fall units corresponding to the six major eruptive events.     

Vent conditions for expected eruptions at Vesuvius

Determining consistent sets of vent conditions for next expected eruptions at Vesuvius is crucial for the simulation of the sub-aerial processes originating the volcanic hazard and the eruption impact. Here we refer to the expected eruptive scales and conditions defined in the frame of the EC Exploris project, and simulate the dynamics of magma ascent along the volcanic conduit for sub-steady phases of next eruptions characterized by intensities of the Violent Strombolian (VS), Sub-Plinian 2 (SP2), and Sub-Plinian 1 (SP1) scale. Sets of conditions for the simulations are determined on the basis of the bulk of knowledge on the past history of Vesuvius [Cioni, R., Bertagnini, A., Santacroce, R., Andronico, D., Explosive activity and eruption scenarios at Somma–Vesuvius (Italy): towards a new classification scheme. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, this issue.]. Volatile contents (H₂O and CO₂) are parameterized in order to account for the uncertainty in their expected amounts for a next eruption. In all cases the flow in the conduit is found to be choked, with velocities at the conduit exit or vent corresponding to the sonic velocity in the two-phase non-equilibrium magmatic mixture. Conduit diameters and vent mixture densities are found to display minimum overlapping between the different eruptive scales, while exit gas and particle velocities, as well as vent pressures, largely overlap. Vent diameters vary from as low as about 5 m for VS eruptions, to 35–55 m for the most violent SP1 eruption scale. Vent pressures can be as low as less than 1 MPa for the lowest volatile content employed of 2 wt.% H₂O and no CO₂, to 7–8 MPa for highest volatile contents of 5 wt.% H₂O and 2 wt.% CO₂ and large eruptive scales. Gas and particle velocities at the vent range from 100–250 m/s, with a tendency to decrease, and to increase the mechanical decoupling between the phases, with increasing eruptive scale. Except for velocities, all relevant vent quantities are more sensitive to the volatile content of the discharged magma for the highest eruptive scales considered.     

Frequent eruptions of Mount Rainier over the last ∼2,600 years

Field, geochronologic, and geochemical evidence from proximal fine-grained tephras, and from limited exposures of Holocene lava flows and a small pyroclastic flow document ten–12 eruptions of Mount Rainier over the last 2,600 years, contrasting with previously published evidence for only 11–12 eruptions of the volcano for all of the Holocene. Except for the pumiceous subplinian C event of 2,200 cal year BP, the late-Holocene eruptions were weakly explosive, involving lava effusions and at least two block-and-ash pyroclastic flows. Eruptions were clustered from ∼2,600 to ∼2,200 cal year BP, an interval referred to as the Summerland eruptive period that includes the youngest lava effusion from the volcano. Thin, fine-grained tephras are the only known primary volcanic products from eruptions near 1,500 and 1,000 cal year BP, but these and earlier eruptions were penecontemporaneous with far-traveled lahars, probably created from newly erupted materials melting snow and glacial ice. The most recent magmatic eruption of Mount Rainier, documented geochemically, was the 1,000 cal year BP event. Products from a proposed eruption of Mount Rainier between AD 1820 and 1854 (X tephra of Mullineaux (US Geol Surv Bull 1326:1–83, 1974)) are redeposited C tephra, probably transported onto young moraines by snow avalanches, and do not record a nineteenth century eruption. We found no conclusive evidence for an eruption associated with the clay-rich Electron Mudflow of ∼500 cal year BP, and though rare, non-eruptive collapse of unstable edifice flanks remains as a potential hazard from Mount Rainier. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. T. W. Sisson and J. W. Vallance contributed equally to this study.     

Fundamental changes in the activity of the natrocarbonatite volcano Oldoinyo Lengai, Tanzania

On September 4, 2007, after 25 years of effusive natrocarbonatite eruptions, the eruptive activity of Oldoinyo Lengai (OL), N Tanzania, changed abruptly to episodic explosive eruptions. This transition was preceded by a voluminous lava eruption in March 2006, a year of quiescence, resumption of natrocarbonatite eruptions in June 2007, and a volcano-tectonic earthquake swarm in July 2007. Despite the lack of ground-based monitoring, the evolution in OL eruption dynamics is documented based on the available field observations, ASTER and MODIS satellite images, and almost-daily photos provided by local pilots. Satellite data enabled identification of a phase of voluminous lava effusion in the 2 weeks prior to the onset of explosive eruptions. After the onset, the activity varied from 100 m high ash jets to 2–15 km high violent, steady or unsteady, eruption columns dispersing ash to 100 km distance. The explosive eruptions built up a ∼400 m wide, ∼75 m high intra-crater pyroclastic cone. Time series data for eruption column height show distinct peaks at the end of September 2007 and February 2008, the latter being associated with the first pyroclastic flows to be documented at OL. Chemical analyses of the erupted products, presented in a companion paper (Keller et al. 2010), show that the 2007–2008 explosive eruptions are associated with an undersaturated carbonated silicate melt. This new phase of explosive eruptions provides constraints on the factors causing the transition from natrocarbonatite effusive eruptions to explosive eruptions of carbonated nephelinite magma, observed repetitively in the last 100 years at OL.     

A remarkable pulse of large-scale volcanism on New Britain Island,Papua New Guinea

New studies of the deposits from the latest caldera-forming eruption (the “Dk” event) at Dakataua Volcano, New Britain Island, Papua New Guinea, help identify an intense space-time concentration of large-scale volcanism during the 7th century AD on New Britain. Radiocarbon dating of charcoal from the Dk deposits yields an age of 1,383 ± 28 BP. Calibration of this result gives an age in the range AD 635–670 (at 1 s. d.). At about the same time, two other volcanoes on New Britain, Rabaul and Witori, also produced very large eruptions. Very high acidity levels in ice cores from Antarctica and Greenland at AD 639 and AD 640 respectively may be linked to either or both of the Dakataua and Rabaul eruptions. Another ice core high acidity level, at AD 692, may be associated with the Witori eruption. Significant volcanic risk within the New Britain region is indicated by its Late Cenozoic history of relatively frequent large-scale eruptions from as many as 8 caldera systems within an arc-parallel zone about 380 km long. Over the last 20 ka the return period for major (VEI 5+) eruptions in this region was about 1.0 ka and individually high frequencies of major eruptive activity were experienced at Witori and Rabaul. The relatively short return period for major eruptions in the region would tend to increase the chance that such events could cluster in time.     

Deep explosive focal depths during maar forming magmatic-hydrothermal eruption: Baccano Crater,Central Italy

We describe the eruptive activity of the Pleistocene composite Baccano maar crater in the Sabatini Volcanic Complex (Central Italy) combining stratigraphy, grain size/componentry and rare earth element and Yttrium (REY) composition of its eruptive products with the stratigraphy and geothermal data derived from deep wells drilled on the Baccano structural high. The main lithological characteristics of the basal Baccano maar pyroclastic deposit, composed of more than 60% wt of non-thermometamorphosed lithic clasts from the sedimentary basement, show that the first eruption was magmatic-hydrothermal in nature. The lithology of the sedimentary lithic clasts indicates that the fragmentation level was at a depth of −1,000 to −1,200 m, with fragment depth verified by deep well stratigraphy. The 15% wt juvenile non-vesicular glass components suggest that magma played a minor role in powering the eruption. Assuming that the high-salinity hot hydrothermal fluids (365<T<410°C and P∼25 MPa), hosted in the highly permeable and confined aquifer below the Baccano maar are representative of those at the time of the eruption, we propose that hydrofracturing would have triggered the eruption caused by overpressure at the top of the geothermal aquifer. REY analysis performed on pyroclastic fragments and basement rocks suggest that partial dissolution of the deeper limestones (>−1,400 m) by the aggressive hydrothermal fluids enriched in acid components (HF, HCl, and H2SO4) may have contributed to increased CO₂ partial pressure that helped to drive the hydrofracturing. This could have caused rapid vapour separation and pressure drop, allowing the almost simultaneous breaking of the aquifer cover and brecciation of the calcareous units down to −1,000 to −1,200 m depth. The relative abundance of calcareous lithics in the basal part of the first Baccano eruptive unit, representing about the upper 200 m of stratigraphy below the top of the Baccano structural high, reveals the descent of the piezometric surface during the eruption. Combining deep well information and maar product stratigraphy, using also REY data from maar pyroclastic fragments and the basement rocks we draw an interpretative model for the Baccano maar-forming eruption, concluding that a) magmatic-hydrothermal eruptions may originate deeper than previously thought, and b) hydrothermal fluids circulating in limestone aquifers may play an important role in triggering such eruptions.     

Eruptive versus non-eruptive behaviour of large calderas: the example of Campi Flegrei caldera (southern Italy)

Caldera eruptions are among the most hazardous of natural phenomena. Many calderas around the world are active and are characterised by recurrent uplift and subsidence periods due to the dynamics of their magma reservoirs. These periods of unrest are, in some cases, accompanied by eruptions. At Campi Flegrei caldera (CFc), which is an area characterised by very high volcanic risk, the recurrence of this behaviour has stimulated the study of the rock rheology around the magma chamber, in order to estimate the likelihood of an eruption. This study considers different scenarios of shallow crustal behaviour, taking into account the earlier models of CFc ground deformation and caldera eruptions, and including recent geophysical investigations of the area. A semi-quantitative evaluation of the different factors that lead to magma storage or to its eruption (such as magma chamber size, wall-rock viscosity, temperature, and regional tectonic strain rate) is reported here for elastic and viscoelastic conditions. Considering the large magmatic sources of the CFc ignimbrite eruptions (400–2,000 km³) and a wall-rock viscosity between 10¹⁸ and 10²⁰ Pa s, the conditions for eruptive failure are difficult to attain. Smaller source dimensions (a few cubic kilometres) promote the condition for fracture (eruption) rather than for the flow of wall rock. We also analyse the influence of the regional extensional stress regime on magma storage and eruptions, and the thermal stress as a possible source of caldera uplift. The present study also emphasises the difficulty of distinguishing eruption and non-eruption scenarios at CFc, since an unambiguous model that accounts for the rock rheology, magma-source dimensions and locations and regional stress field influences is still lacking.     

The Middle Scoria sequence: A Holocene violent strombolian, subplinian and phreatomagmatic eruption of Okmok volcano, Alaska

The Middle Scoria deposit represents an explosive eruption of basaltic andesite magma (54 wt. % SiO₂) from Okmok volcano during mid-Holocene time. The pattern of dispersal and characteristics of the ejecta indicate that the eruption opened explosively, with ash textural evidence for a limited degree of phreatomagmatism. The second phase of the eruption produced thick vesicular scoria deposits with grain texture, size and dispersal characteristics that indicate it was violent strombolian to subplinian in style. The third eruptive phase produced deposits with a shift towards grain shapes that are dense, blocky, and poorly vesicular, and intermittent surge layers, indicating later transitions between magmatic (violent strombolian) to phreatomagmatic (vulcanian) eruptive styles. Isopach maps yield bulk volume estimates that range from 0.06 to 0.43 km³, with ~ 0.04 to 0.25 km³ total DRE. The associated column heights and mass discharge values calculated from isopleth maps of individual Middle Scoria layers are 8.5 – 14 km and 0.4 to 45 × 10⁶ kg/s. The Middle Scoria tephras are enriched in plagioclase microlites that have the textural characteristics of rapid magma ascent and relatively high degrees of effective undercooling. Those textures probably reflect the rapid magma ascent accompanying the violent strombolian and subplinian phases of the eruption. In the later stages of the eruption, the plagioclase microlite number densities decrease and textures include more tabular plagioclase, indicating a slowing of the ascent rate. The findings on the Middle Scoria are consistent with other explosive mafic eruptions, and show that outside of the two large caldera-forming eruptions, Okmok is also capable of producing violent mafic eruptions, marked by varying degrees of phreatomagmatism.     

Probabilistic hazard analysis of Citlaltépetl (Pico de Orizaba) Volcano, eastern Mexican Volcanic Belt

Citlaltépetl or Pico de Orizaba is the highest active volcano in the North American continent. Although Citlaltépetl is at present in repose, its eruptive history reveals repetitive explosive eruptions in the past. Its relatively low eruption rate has favored significant population growth in areas that may be affected by a potential eruptive activity. The need of some criteria for hazards assessment and land-use planning has motivated the use of statistical methods to estimate the time and space distribution of volcanic hazards around this volcano. The analysis of past activity, from late Pleistocene to historic times, and the extent of some well-identified deposits are used to calculate the recurrence probabilities of eruptions of various size during time periods useful for land-use planning.     

Multiple levels of magma storage during the 1980 summer eruptions of Mount St. Helens, WA

Transitions in eruptive style—explosive to effusive, sustained to pulsatory—are a common aspect of volcanic activity and present a major challenge to volcano monitoring efforts. A classic example of such transitions is provided by the activity of Mount St. Helens, WA, during 1980, where a climactic Plinian event on May 18 was followed by subplinian and vulcanian eruptions that became increasing pulsatory with time throughout the summer, finally progressing to episodic growth of a lava dome. Here we use variations in the textures, glass compositions and volatile contents of melt inclusions preserved in pyroclasts produced by the summer 1980 eruptions to determine conditions of magma ascent and storage that may have led to observed changes in eruptive activity. Five different pyroclast types identified in pyroclastic flow and fall deposits produced by eruptions in June 12, July 22 and August 7, 1980, provide evidence for multiple levels of magma storage prior to each event. Highly vesicular clasts have H₂O-rich (4.5–5.5 wt%) melt inclusions and lack groundmass microlites or hornblende reaction rims, characteristics that require magma storage at P≥160 MPa until shortly prior to eruption. All other clast types have groundmass microlites; P_H20 estimated from both H₂O-bearing melt inclusions and textural constraints provided by decompression experiments suggest pre-eruptive storage pressures of ∼75, 40, and 10 MPa. The distribution of pyroclast types within and between eruptive deposits can be used to place important constraints on eruption mechanisms. Fall and flow deposits from June 12, 1980, lack highly vesicular, microlite-free pyroclasts. This eruption was also preceded by a shallow intrusion on June 3, as evidenced by a seismic crisis and enhanced SO₂ emissions. Our constraints suggest that magma intruded to a depth of ≤4 km beneath the crater floor fed the June eruption. In contrast, eruptions of July and August, although shorter in duration and smaller in volume, erupted deep volatile-rich magma. If modeled as a simple cylinder, these data require a step-wise decrease in effective conduit diameter from 40–50 m in May and June to 8–12 m in July and August. The abundance of vesicular (intermediate to deep) clast types in July and August further suggests that this change was effected by narrowing the shallower part of the conduit, perhaps in response to solidification of intruded magma remaining in the shallow system after the June eruption. Eruptions from July to October were distinctly pulsatory, transitioning between subplinian and vulcanian in character. As originally suggested by Scandone and Malone (1985), a growing mismatch between the rate of magma ascent and magma disruption explains the increasingly pulsatory nature of the eruptions through time. Recent fragmentation experiments Spieler et al. (2004) suggest this mismatch may have been aided by the multiple levels at which magma was stored (and degassed) prior to these events.Editorial responsibility: J Stix     

基于特征地震模型含时间的概率地震危险性分析方法及其应用研究

本文介绍了特征地震的对数正态分布模型、 正态分布模型和布朗过程时间模型, 提出了使用地震破裂面源模型的特征地震含时间的概率地震危险性分析理论和方法. 通过具体算例对不同的特征地震模型进行了比较, 并对特征地震危险性分析方法进行了系统探索. 研究结果表明, 特征地震含时间模型在复发周期早期的地震危险性低于不含时间模型, 而在后期其地震危险性则高于不含时间模型. 特征地震复发周期的对数正态分布模型与布朗过程时间模型计算得出的地震危险性差别不大. 在未到期望复发时间时, 正态分布模型与前两种模型计算的地震危险性差别不大; 而接近期望复发时间及之后时段, 正态分布模型计算的地震危险性则迅速增大.      

Application of Brownian model in the northwestern Beijing, China

The mathematic theory of Brownian passage-time model and its difference from other recurrence models such as Poisson, lognormal, gamma and Weibull, were introduced. We assessed and analyzed the earthquake probabilities of the major faults with the elapsed time much greater than the recurrence interval in the northwest region of Beijing (China) in 100-year by using both Brownian passage-time model and Poisson model, and concluded that the calculated results obtained from Brownian passage-time model is more reasonable. Foundation item: Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China (103034) and Key Project “Assessment of Seismic Safety” from China Earthquake Administration during the tenth Five-year Plan.     

The influence of great earthquakes on volcanic eruption rate along the Chilean subduction zone

Seismic activity has been postulated as a trigger of volcanic eruption on a range of timescales, but demonstrating the occurrence of triggered eruptions on timescales beyond a few days has proven difficult using global datasets. Here, we use the historic earthquake and eruption records of Chile and the Andean southern volcanic zone to investigate eruption rates following large earthquakes. We show a significant increase in eruption rate following earthquakes of M_W > 8, notably in 1906 and 1960, with similar occurrences further back in the record. Eruption rates are enhanced above background levels for ~ 12 months following the 1906 and 1960 earthquakes, with the onset of 3–4 eruptions estimated to have been seismically influenced in each instance. Eruption locations suggest that these effects occur from the near-field to distances of ~ 500 km or more beyond the limits of the earthquake rupture zone. This suggests that both dynamic and static stresses associated with large earthquakes are important in eruption-triggering processes and have the potential to initiate volcanic eruption in arc settings over timescales of several months.     

Stratigraphy and eruptive dynamics of a pulsating Plinian eruption of Somma-Vesuvius: the Pomici di Mercato (8900 years B.P.)

New volcanological studies allow reconstruction of the eruption dynamics of the Pomici di Mercato eruption (ca 8,900 cal. yr B.P.) of Somma-Vesuvius. Three main Eruptive Phases are distinguished based on two distinct erosion surfaces that interrupt stratigraphic continuity of the deposits, indicating that time breaks occurred during the eruption. Absence of reworked volcaniclastic deposits on top of the erosion surfaces suggests that quiescent periods between eruptive phases were short perhaps lasting only days to weeks. Each of the Eruptive Phases was characterised by deposition of alternating fall and pyroclastic density current (PDC) deposits. The fallout deposits blanketed a wide area toward the east, while the more restricted PDC deposits inundated the volcano slopes. Eruptive dynamics were driven by brittle magmatic fragmentation of a phonolitic magma, which, because of its mechanical fragility, produced a significant amount of fine ash. External water did not significantly contribute either to fragmentation dynamics or to mechanical energy release during the eruption. Column heights were between 18 and 22 km, corresponding to mass discharge rates between 1.4 and 6 × 10⁷ kg s⁻¹. The estimated on land volume of fall deposits ranges from a minimum of 2.3 km³ to a maximum of 7.4 km³. Calculation of physical parameters of the dilute pyroclastic density currents indicates speeds of a few tens of m s⁻¹ and densities of a few kg m⁻³ (average of the lowermost 10 m of the currents), resulting in dynamic pressures lower than 3 kPa. These data suggest that the potential impact of pyroclastic density currents of the Pomici di Mercato eruption was smaller than those of other Plinian and sub-Plinian eruptions of Somma-Vesuvius, especially those of 1631 AD and 472 AD (4–14 kPa), which represent reference values for the Vesuvian emergency plan. The pulsating and long-lasting behaviour of the Pomici di Mercato eruption is unique in the history of large explosive eruptions of Somma-Vesuvius. We suggest an eruptive scheme in which discrete magma batches rose from the magma chamber through a network of fractures. The injection and rise of the different magma batches was controlled by the interplay between magma chamber overpressure and local stress. The intermittent discharge of magma during a large explosive eruption is unusual for Somma-Vesuvius, as well as for other volcanoes worldwide, and yields new insights for improving our knowledge of the dynamics of explosive eruptions.     

Erratum to Compositional variations and magma mixing in the 1991 eruptions of Hudson volcano,Chile

The August 1991 eruptions of Hudson volcano produced ~2.7 km³ (dense rock equivalent, DRE) of basaltic to trachyandesitic pyroclastic deposits, making it one of the largest historical eruptions in South America. Phase 1 of the eruption (P1, April 8) involved both lava flows and a phreatomagmatic eruption from a fissure located in the NW corner of the caldera. The paroxysmal phase (P2) began several days later (April 12) with a Plinian-style eruption from a different vent 4 km to the south-southeast. Tephra from the 1991 eruption ranges in composition from basalt (phase 1) to trachyandesite (phase 2), with a distinct gap between the two erupted phases from 54–60 wt% SiO₂. A trend of decreasing SiO₂ is evident from the earliest part of the phase 2 eruption (unit A, 63–65 wt% SiO₂) to the end (unit D, 60–63 wt% SiO₂). Melt inclusion data and textures suggest that mixing occurred in magmas from both eruptive phases. The basaltic and trachyandesitic magmas can be genetically related through both magma mixing and fractional crystallization processes. A combination of observed phase assemblages, inferred water content, crystallinity, and geothermometry estimates suggest pre-eruptive storage of the phase 2 trachyandesite at pressures between ~50–100 megapascal (MPa) at 972 ± 26°C under water-saturated conditions (log fO₂ –10.33 (±0.2)). It is proposed that rising P1 basaltic magma intersected the lower part of the P2 magma storage region between 2 and 3 km depth. Subsequent mixing between the two magmas preferentially hybridized the lower part of the chamber. Basaltic magma continued advancing towards the surface as a dyke to eventually be erupted in the northwestern part of the Hudson caldera. The presence of tachylite in the P1 products suggests that some of the magma was stalled close to the surface (<0.5 km) prior to eruption. Seismicity related to magma movement and the P1 eruption, combined with chamber overpressure associated with basalt injection, may have created a pathway to the surface for the trachyandesite magma and subsequent P2 eruption at a different vent 4 km to the south-southeast. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

A multidisciplinary effort to assign realistic source parameters to models of volcanic ash-cloud transport and dispersion during eruptions

During volcanic eruptions, volcanic ash transport and dispersion models (VATDs) are used to forecast the location and movement of ash clouds over hours to days in order to define hazards to aircraft and to communities downwind. Those models use input parameters, called “eruption source parameters”, such as plume height H, mass eruption rate Ṁ, duration D, and the mass fraction m₆₃ of erupted debris finer than about 4 or 63 μm, which can remain in the cloud for many hours or days. Observational constraints on the value of such parameters are frequently unavailable in the first minutes or hours after an eruption is detected. Moreover, observed plume height may change during an eruption, requiring rapid assignment of new parameters. This paper reports on a group effort to improve the accuracy of source parameters used by VATDs in the early hours of an eruption. We do so by first compiling a list of eruptions for which these parameters are well constrained, and then using these data to review and update previously studied parameter relationships. We find that the existing scatter in plots of H versus Ṁ yields an uncertainty within the 50% confidence interval of plus or minus a factor of four in eruption rate for a given plume height. This scatter is not clearly attributable to biases in measurement techniques or to well-recognized processes such as elutriation from pyroclastic flows. Sparse data on total grain-size distribution suggest that the mass fraction of fine debris m₆₃ could vary by nearly two orders of magnitude between small basaltic eruptions ( 0.01) and large silicic ones (> 0.5). We classify eleven eruption types; four types each for different sizes of silicic and mafic eruptions; submarine eruptions; “brief” or Vulcanian eruptions; and eruptions that generate co-ignimbrite or co-pyroclastic flow plumes. For each eruption type we assign source parameters. We then assign a characteristic eruption type to each of the world's  1500 Holocene volcanoes. These eruption types and associated parameters can be used for ash-cloud modeling in the event of an eruption, when no observational constraints on these parameters are available.     

CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>-driven large mafic explosive eruptions: the Pozzolane Rosse case study from the Colli Albani Volcanic District (Italy)

Generally, the intensity and magnitude of explosive volcanic activity increase in parallel with SiO₂ content. Pyroclastic-flow-forming eruptions in the Colli Albani ultrapotassic volcanic district (Italy) represent the most striking exception on a global scale, with volumes on the order of tens of cubic kilometres and K-foiditic compositions (SiO₂ even <42 wt.%). Here, we reconstruct the pre-eruptive scenario and event dynamics of the ~456 ka Pozzolane Rosse (PR) eruption, the largest mafic explosive event of the Colli Albani district. In particular, we focus on the driving mechanisms for the unusually explosive eruption of a low-viscosity, mafic magma. Geologic, petrographic and geochemical data with mass balance calculations, supported by experimental data for Colli Albani magma compositions, provide evidence for significant ingestion of carbonate wall rocks by the Pozzolane Rosse K-foiditic magma. Moreover, the scattered occurrence of cored bombs in Pozzolane Rosse pyroclastic-flow deposits records carbonate entrainment even at the eruptive time scale, as also tested quantitatively by thermal modelling of magma–carbonate interaction and carbonate assimilation experiments. We suggest that the addition of free CO₂ from decarbonation of country rocks was the major factor controlling magma explosivity. High CO₂ activity in the volatile component, coupled with magma depressurisation, produced extensive leucite crystallisation at short time scales, resulting in a dramatic increase in magma viscosity and volatile pressurisation, which was manifested a change of eruptive dynamics from early effusion to the Pozzolane Rosse's highly explosive eruption climax.