Future climate change impact evaluation on hydrologic processes in the Bharalu and Basistha basins using SWAT model

Urbanisation and climate change can have adverse effects on the streamflow and water balance components in river basins. This study focuses on the understanding of different hydrologic responses to climate change between urban and rural basins. The comprehensive semi-distributed hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate how the streamflow and water balance components vary under future climate change on Bharalu (urban basin) and Basistha (rural basin) River basins near the Brahmaputra River in India based on precipitation, temperature and geospatial data. Based on data collected in 1990–2012, it is found that 98.78% of the water yield generated for the urban Bharalu River basin is by surface runoff, comparing to 75% of that for the rural Basistha basin. Comparison of various hydrologic processes (e.g. precipitation, discharge, water yield, surface runoff, actual evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration) based on predicted climate change scenarios is evaluated. The urban Bharalu basin shows a decrease in streamflow, water yield, surface runoff, actual evapotranspiration in contrast to the rural Basistha basin, for the 2050s and 2090s decades. The average annual discharge will increase a maximum 1.43 and 2.20 m³/s from the base period for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) such as 2.6 and 8.5 pathways in Basistha River and it will decrease a maximum 0.67 and 0.46 m³/s for Bharalu River, respectively. This paper also discusses the influence of sensitive parameters on hydrologic processes, future issues and challenges in the rural and urban basins.     

Water balance of basins in central Greece: Comparison with other circum-Mediterranean basins and validity of empirical methods

The geological and physicogeographical elements of the neighboring basins of Xyniada and Sofaditi in central Greece are given. The average annual and monthly amounts of precipitation that each basin receives for a nineyear period (1972–1981) are estimated by analyzing the data of eight rain gauges. The average annual value of total runoff is also obtained by frequent discharge measurements at the basin outlets during the same period of record, and the water balance of the basins is thus estimated. The examined basins are compared to others in the circum-Mediterranean region. Finally, various empirical methods of estimating components of water balance are applied, and opinions are expressed about the correspondence of these methods to reality and the way they are applied.     

Rainfall-runoff modeling of ungauged Wadis in arid environments (case study Wadi Rabigh—Saudi Arabia)

Flash flood forecasting of catchment systems is one of the challenges especially in the arid ungauged basins. This study is attempted to estimate the relationship between rainfall and runoff and also to provide flash flood hazard warnings for ungauged basins based on the hydrological characteristics using geographic information system (GIS). Morphometric characteristics of drainage basins provide a means for describing the hydrological behavior of a basin. The study examined the morphometric parameters of Wadi Rabigh with emphasis on its implication for hydrologic processes through the integration analysis between morphometric parameters and GIS techniques. Data for this study were obtained from ASTER data for digital elevation model (DEM) with 30-m resolution, topographic map (1:50,000), and geological maps (1,250,000) which were subject to field confirmation. About 36 morphometric parameters were measured and calculated, and interlinked to produce nine effective parameters for the evaluation of the flash flood hazard degree of the study area. Based on nine effective morphometric parameters that directly influence on the hydrologic behavior of the Wadi through time of concentration, the flash flood hazard of the Rabigh basin and its subbasins was identified and classified into three groups (High, medium, and low hazard degree). The present work proved that the physiographic features of drainage basin contribute to the possibility of a flash flood hazard evaluation for any particular drainage area. The study provides details on the flash flood prone subbasins and the mitigation measures. This study also helps to plan rainwater harvesting and watershed management in the flash flood alert zones. Based on two historical data events of rainfall and the corresponding maximum flow rate, morphometric parameters and Stormwater Management and Design Aid software (SMADA 6), it could be to generate the hydrograph of Wadi Rabigh basin. As a result of the model applied to Wadi Rabigh basin, a rainfall event of a total of 22 mm with a duration of 5 h at the station nearby the study area, which has an exceedance probability of 50 % and return period around 2 years, produces a discharge volume of 15.2?×?10⁶ m³ at the delta, outlet of the basin, as 12.5 mm of the rainfall infiltrates (recharge).     

信息熵在新安江模型和NAM模型比较中的应用

选取资水流域新宁水文站以上集水面积为研究区域,基于空间分辨率为30s的数字高程模型数据构建数字流域水系,运用新安江模型和NAM模型分别对新宁站的日径流过程进行模拟。采用确定性系数和信息熵对两个模型的模拟结果进行比较分析。在信息熵计算过程中,以实测流量为标准序列,计算两种日模型模拟结果与实测序列残差,然后进行归一化,计算潜在信息测度和信息熵相对测度。信息熵越大表明流量计算序列与实测序列过程线在垂向上相似性强,但这并不代表确定性系数大、径流深相对误差小。     

Trend analysis of hydroclimatological variables in Urmia lake basin using hybrid wavelet Mann–Kendall and Şen tests

This paper investigates monthly, seasonal, and annual trends in rainfall, streamflow, temperature, and humidity amounts at Urmia lake (UL) basin and analyzes the interaction between these variables and UL’s water level fluctuation during the 1971–2013 period. Two new methods including nonparametric hybrid wavelet Mann–Kendall test and ?en’s methodology have been used to determine potential trends in the variables and their dominant periods. The results showed significant decreasing trends in the water level and streamflow series, moderate decreasing trend in the rainfall and relative humidity series, and increasing trends in the observed temperature data. The 8- , 12-month, and 2-year periods were detected as the dominant periods of the variables in monthly, seasonal, and annual timescales, respectively. The results from the interaction analysis revealed that the main factor influencing the water level at UL is decreasing trend in the streamflow series. Both the monthly series of UL’s water level and the streamflow series of the stations indicated two start points of significant decreasing trend in 1973 and 1998. Furthermore, a comparative analysis among the applied methods indicated a good agreement between the results of hybrid wavelet Mann–Kendall test and ?en’s trend analyzing method.     

Impact of water demand on hydrological regime under climate and LULC change scenarios

The present study focuses on an assessment of the impact of future water demand on the hydrological regime under land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change scenarios. The impact has been quantified in terms of streamflow and groundwater recharge in the Gandherswari River basin, West Bengal, India. dynamic conversion of land use and its effects (Dyna-CLUE) and statistical downscaling model (SDSM) are used for quantifying the future LULC and climate change scenarios, respectively. Physical-based semi-distributed model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used for estimating future streamflow and spatiotemporally distributed groundwater recharge. Model calibration and validation have been performed using discharge data (1990–2016). The impacts of LULC and climate change on hydrological variables are evaluated with three scenarios (for the years 2030, 2050 and 2080). Temperature Vegetation Dyrness Index (TVDI) and evapotranspiration (ET) are considered for estimation of water-deficit conditions in the river basin. Exceedance probability and recurrence interval representation are considered for uncertainty analysis. The results show increased discharge in case of monsoon season and decreased discharge in case of the non-monsoon season for the years 2030 and 2050. However, a reverse trend is obtained for the year 2080. The overall increase in groundwater recharge is visible for all the years. This analysis provides valuable information for the irrigation water management framework.     

Approaching water management at watershed scale using distributed water balances in the Yanuncay River basins (Ecuador)

In this study, the excess water generated during a 10-year period (1998–2008) in the upper and middle Yanuncay River basins is estimated. The distributed water balance method, which analyses the interaction between all the different parameters that form part of the water cycle in nature, was developed. To create the model, basic parameters such as rainfall, temperature, soil type and surface cover are required. Moreover, by using computer software such as Microsoft Office Excel and geographic information systems, it is possible to obtain monthly data showing the water excess and generate thematic maps which allow for an effective monitoring of the behaviour of the middle and upper Yanuncay River basins. This study takes the spatial variability of the various factors that influence the behaviour of a basin into account. This allows determining zones with greater water excess, which are areas that would need to be protected. The model can easily incorporate new data such as land use and surface cover (based on time frames) which would facilitate the comparison of different scenarios.     

Streamflow changes and its influencing factors in the mainstream of the Songhua River basin,Northeast China over the past 50 years

The Songhua River plays a key role in the national development of China, owing to its unique natural condition and resources. Recent changes in the streamflow in the Songhua River are important with regard to local sustainable development and management under the background of global warming and aggravating soil erosion. In order to detect changes in the streamflow, two streamflow series from 1955 to 2004 (observed at the Harbin and Jiamusi stations) in the mainstream of Songhua River basin were obtained, and methods of statistical analysis, wavelet transform, and double mass analysis were employed to analyze the data. Reasons for the changes to the streamflow are discussed with respect to natural and man-made drivers. The results show the following: (1) From 1955 to 2004, the streamflow series present obvious declining trends. (2) The streamflow series followed the pattern of a wet–dry–wet–dry cycle pattern over the past 50 years. In the mainstream of Songhua River, wet years mainly occurred during the periods of 1955–1966 and 1984–1993, while dry years mainly occurred in the 1970s and after 2000. (3) Within the 50-year scale, the streamflow series appeared in the main periods of circa 33-, 13- and 4-year, in which the 33-year periodicity is the strongest. (4) Precipitation and temperature directly influenced the streamflow in the mainstream of the basin. The discharge was positively correlated with the precipitation and negatively correlated with the temperature. In addition, human activity was another important driving factor for streamflow change. (5) In the mainstream of Songhua River basin, the influences on streamflow can be divided into three periods: 1955–1976, 1977–1997, and 1998–2004. In the first period climate change played a dominant role, and during the latter two periods human influences were enhanced significantly.     

基于信息熵的雨量站网优化研究

基于信息熵理论,研究金沙江下游流域站点信息熵对降雨信息量和时空变异性特征的反映程度,发现信息熵能够在降雨量级和时空分布上充分表达降雨信息,确定了熵理论运用于本流域雨量站网规划的合理性;采用与组内互信息量最小为原则对三个实验流域站点进行重要性排序,以组内站点信息量和与组外互信息量总和最大为目标函数进行末位淘汰优选站网,结...     

Hydrogeomorphic methods for the regional evaluation of flood hazards

The “upstream” approach to flood hazard evaluation involves the estimation of hydrologic response in small drainage basins. This study demonstrates the application of geomorphology to such studies in a region of unusually intense flooding in central Texas. One approach to flood hazard evaluation in this area is a parametric model relating flood hydrograph characteristics to quantitative geomorphic properties of the drainage basins. A preliminary model uses multiple regression techniques to predict potential peak flood discharge from basin magnitude, drainage density, and ruggedness number. After mapping small catchment networks (4 to 20 km²) from remote sensing imagery, input data for the model are generated by network digitization and analysis by a computer-assisted routine of watershed analysis. The study evaluated the network resolution capabilities of the following data formats: (1) large-scale (1:24,000) topographic maps, employing Strahler's “method of v's”, (2) low altitude black-and-white aerial photography (1:13,000 and 1:20,000 scales), (3) NASA-generated aerial infrared photography at scales ranging from 1:48,000 to 1:123,000, and (4) Skylab Earth Resources Experiment Package S-190A and S-190B sensors (1:750,000 and 1:500,000 respectively). Measured as the number of first order streams or as the total channel length identified in small drainage areas, resolution is strongly dependent on basin relief. High-density basins on the Edwards Plateau were poorly depicted on orbital imagery. However, the orbital network definition of low-relief basins on the inner Texas Coastal Plain is nearly as accurate as results from large-scale topographic maps. Geomorphic methods are also useful for flood hazard zonation in “downstream” flood plain areas. Studies of the Colorado River valley near Austin, Texas, easily distinguished infrequent (100- to 500-year recurrence interval), intermediate (10- to 30-year), and frequent (1- to 4-year) hazard zones. These mapping techniques are especially applicable to the rapid regional evaluation of flood hazards in areas for which there is a lack of time and money to generate more accurate engineering-hydraulic flood hazard maps.     

近50年来中国六大流域径流年内分配变化趋势

基于1950年以来的全国六大流域19个重点控制水文站实测月径流量观测资料,以1980年为界,分析各站实测径流量年内分配不均匀系数、集中度以及集中期的变化;采用Mann-Kendall非参数统计检验方法,诊断了各月径流量的变化趋势。结果表明,自1980年以来,全国六大流域的月径流发生了时空变化,除海河的石匣里、响水堡站和黄河花园口站年内径流不均匀性和相对集中度较小以外,其它站的年内径流不均匀性和相对集中度较大,以松辽流域为最大;此外,南方流域各站冬春季(12~3月)的径流均呈现增加的趋势,5月份呈现减少的趋势,7月份呈现增加的趋势;北方流域各站冬春季(1~5月)径流呈现减少的趋势,以海河流域各站、松辽的铁岭、黄河利津站和淮河的吴家渡站减少趋势最为严重。     

基于分布式水文模型的雅鲁藏布江径流水源组成解析

为开展河川径流的水源解析，构建过程描述和本构参数两方面均有较强物理性的分布式水文模型。以雅鲁藏布江为对象，利用水文分区曲线对降雨、融雪和融冰等不同水源主导的流量过程进行划分，以划分的流量过程线子集对相应水文过程参数进行分步率定，提高了水文模型参数的物理性，以此构建了雅鲁藏布江流域分布式水文模型及参数集，内部多个水文站点和流域雪水当量的验证表明模型具有良好的性能。基于模型解析了2001—2015年间雅鲁藏布江的径流水源组成，降雨、融雪、融冰水源对总径流量贡献的比例分别为66%、20%和14%。本文方法对高山寒区径流的水源解析有普遍意义，结果对理解气候变化下雅鲁藏布江径流变化趋势有参考价值。     

An operational flood warning system for poorly gauged basins: demonstration in the Guadalhorce basin (Spain)

This paper deals with the presentation of a flood warning system (GFWS) developed for the specific characteristics of the Guadalhorce basin (3,200 km², SE of Spain), which is poorly gauged and often affected by flash and plain floods. Its complementarity with the European flood alert system (EFAS) has also been studied. At a lower resolution, EFAS is able to provide a flood forecast several days in advance. The GFWS is adapted to the use of distributed rainfall maps (such as radar rainfall estimates), and discharge forecasts are computed using a distributed rainfall–runoff model. Due to the lack of flow measurements, the model parameters calibrated on a small watershed have been transferred in most of the basin area. The system is oriented to provide distributed warnings and fulfills the requirements of ungauged basins. This work reports on the performance of the system on two recent rainfall events that caused several inundations. These results show how the GFWS performed well and was able to forecast the location and timing of flooding. It demonstrates that despite its limitations, a simple rainfall–runoff model and a relatively simple calibration could be useful for event risk management. Moreover, with low resolution and long anticipation, EFAS appears as a good complement tool to improve flood forecasting and compensate for the short lead times of the GFWS.     

基于分布式水文模型的雅鲁藏布江径流水源组成解析

为开展河川径流的水源解析,构建过程描述和本构参数两方面均有较强物理性的分布式水文模型。以雅鲁藏布江为对象,利用水文分区曲线对降雨、融雪和融冰等不同水源主导的流量过程进行划分,以划分的流量过程线子集对相应水文过程参数进行分步率定,提高了水文模型参数的物理性,以此构建了雅鲁藏布江流域分布式水文模型及参数集,内部多个水文站点和流域雪水当量的验证表明模型具有良好的性能。基于模型解析了2001-2015年间雅鲁藏布江的径流水源组成,降雨、融雪、融冰水源对总径流量贡献的比例分别为66%、20%和14%。本文方法对高山寒区径流的水源解析有普遍意义,结果对理解气候变化下雅鲁藏布江径流变化趋势有参考价值。     

The Barranco de Arás flood of 7 August 1996 (Biescas, Central Pyrenees, Spain)

Geomorphic effects observed in the Barranco (creek) de Arás basin are used to characterize the flood. Sediment features allow to qualify the flood as essentially a water flow. Using the critical section method, the peak flood discharge is estimated to be between 400 and 600 m³ s⁻¹. Similar results were obtained using a paleohydraulic formula based on the size of the largest mobilized clasts. Using the rational method with available rainfall data, the discharge for a recurrence interval of 500 years is estimated to be between 150 and 200 m³ s⁻¹. These results agree with predictions obtained using curves of peak discharge versus basin area based on regional data. Several trenches dug on the fan showed that the size of boulders mobilized by the event is larger that those left by previous floods at the same place. When the estimated peak flood discharge is related to the basin area, values between 20 and 30 m³ s⁻¹ km⁻² are obtained, demonstrating that the Barranco de Arás flood was most unusual.     

基于TRMM卫星雷达降雨的流域陆面水文过程

利用热带降雨观测计划(TRMM)卫星雷达降雨数据驱动分布式陆面水文模型,研究流域尺度陆面水文过程,评估该数据在水文模拟与预报等研究领域的性能。通过与实测雨量资料比较,验证TRMM卫星雷达降雨数据的质量。分别将TRMM卫星雷达降雨与观测降雨作为耦合模型的气象输入,模拟和研究淮河流域1998~2003年的陆面水文过程时空变化。结果表明,TRMM卫星雷达降雨数据能够很好地描述降雨的时空分布,利用TRMM降雨模拟的结果与利用观测降雨模拟的结果精度相当;模拟流量与实测资料基本吻合。卫星雷达降雨数据在陆面水文过程研究中具有广泛的应用前景。     

利用包气带环境示踪剂评估张掖盆地降水入渗速率

降水入渗补给速率是干旱半干旱地区地下水资源评价和保护中的重要参数。长期以来在河西走廊中游盆地地下水资源评价中,一直认为地下水位埋深>5m的地带难以产生降水入渗补给。本文在黑河流域中游的张掖盆地分别选择沙丘区和裸地区,综合运用包气带同位素和水化学信息,开展了降水入渗补给研究。包气带氯质量平衡法结果表明:现代气候条件下,张掖盆地地下水位埋深>5m的地带仍存在降水入渗补给,在沙丘覆盖区,地下水位埋深6.3m时,降水入渗补给速率为13.3～14.4mm/a,入渗系数0.10～0.11;在裸地区,地下水位埋深8.6m时,降水入渗补给速率为16.8～18.4mm/a,入渗系数0.13～0.14。     

台湾多站流量生成模式的研究

在台湾不同时间下之流量均呈现强烈的气候特性,透过具有气候意义的流量模式,可使得模拟模式的结果更接近实际情况.利用台湾的气候特性,将流量区分于不同气候之贡献,初步完成具台湾气候特性的单站流量生成模式.再使用统计方法考虑于同一流域中不同时段与不同河川间之流量,最后形成合适的多站流量模式.经由多站流量生成模式所得之流量,不似单站生成模式缺乏流域整体的考虑,同时也保持河川间的相关性,与流量间时序之关系.将此模式应用在台湾淡水河流域的支流上,已获致颇佳的结果.此具气象性质之多站流量生成模式未来适合推广于台湾其它流域之水资源规划.     

Factors affecting groundwater chemistry in regional arid basins of variable lithology: example of Wadi Umairy,Oman

Understanding factors influencing groundwater chemistry in regional groundwater basins is important to prevent groundwater pollution especially in arid areas where rainfall is low and water resources are limited. The present study assesses such factors in the regional, geologically diverse, groundwater basin of Wadi Umairy in Oman. The basin is composed of five different lithostratigraphic units with different hydraulic properties. Water samples (41) have been collected from the different units and analyzed for the major ions. Factor analysis and conventional hydrochemical methods were used to define the factors that have significant impact on the aquifer's hydrochemistry. It was found that evaporation and mineral weathering/dissolution are the main factors defining the groundwater chemistry along the flow path from recharge to discharge zones, whereas anthropogenic activities and alkalinity are found to be of lesser effect, and the latter prevails when the rocks are predominantly monomineralic. It was concluded that in regional groundwater basins, recharge/discharge relations together with the flow scale control the hydrochemistry irrespective of lithological variation in the basin.     

Modelling surface run-off and trends analysis over India

The present study is mainly concerned with detecting the trend of run-off over the mainland of India, during a time period of 35 years, from 1971–2005 (May–October). Rainfall, soil texture, land cover types, slope, etc., were processed and run-off modelling was done using the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) model with modifications and cell size of 5×5 km. The slope and antecedent moisture corrections were incorporated in the existing model. Trend analysis of estimated run-off was done by taking into account different analysis windows such as cell, medium and major river basins, meteorological sub-divisions and elevation zones across India. It was estimated that out of the average 1012.5 mm of rainfall over India (considering the study period of 35 years), 33.8% got converted to surface run-off. An exponential model was developed between the rainfall and the run-off that predicted the run-off with an R² of 0.97 and RMSE of 8.31 mm. The run-off trend analysed using the Mann–Kendall test revealed that a significant pattern exists in 22 medium, two major river basins and three meteorological sub-divisions, while there was no evidence of a statistically significant trend in the elevation zones. Among the medium river basins, the highest positive rate of change in the run-off was observed in the Kameng basin (13.6 mm/yr), while the highest negative trend was observed in the Tista upstream basin (?21.4 mm/yr). Changes in run-off provide valuable information for understanding the region’s sensitivity to climatic variability.