Tree-ring estimates of Pacific decadal climate variability

 Decadal-scale oscillatory modes of atmosphere-ocean variability have recently been identified in instrumental studies of the Pacific sector. The regime shift around 1976 is one example of such a fluctuation, which has been shown to have significantly impacted climate and the environment along the coastline of the western N and S Americas. The length of meteorological data for the Pacific and western Americas critically limits analyses of such decadal-scale climate variability. Here we present reconstructions of the annual Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index based on western North American tree-ring records which account for up to 53% of the instrumental variance and extend as far back as AD 1700. The PDO reconstructions indicate that decadal-scale climatic shifts have occurred prior to the period of instrumental record. Evaluation of temperature and precipitation-sensitive tree-ring series from the northeast Pacific as well as these reconstructions reveals evidence for a shift towards less pronounced interdecadal variability after about the middle 1800s. Our analyses also suggest that sites from both the northeast Pacific coast as well as the subtropical Americas need to be included in proxy data sets used to reconstruct the PDO. Received: 15 September 2000 / Accepted: 30 March 2001     

Abrupt changes as indicators of decadal climate variability

 A statistical test has revealed that abrupt regional climate changes are produced in a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Abrupt changes are detected over much of the globe although the occurrence frequency is small over the continents. Over the tropical Pacific Ocean and northern Pacific Ocean, surface air temperature (SAT) and sea level pressure (SLP) shift rapidly on decadal time scales. The regional climate changes presented here have been classified into three types. The first type consists of statistically significant shifts in SLP and statistically significant shifts in SAT which are of opposite sign, and which are reinforced through a positive feedback between the atmosphere and the ocean. The second type is for those occurrences where changes are of the same sign. The third type includes those with a significant shift in only one meteorological element. The second and third types are generally generated by changes in air pressure and wind fields induced by changes of the first type. For example, when SLP increases and sea surface temperature (SST) decreases abruptly in the tropical Pacific Ocean, it triggers abrupt regional changes in middle and high latitudes. The abrupt changes in the model climate have characteristics which are very similar to those of observed rapid shifts. Thus, it is concluded that abrupt changes are a predominant part of regional climate change on decadal time scales. Received: 11 February 1999 / Accepted: 18 May 2000     

Extratropical control of recent tropical Pacific decadal climate variability: a relay teleconnection

Observations indicate that recent tropical Pacific decadal climate variability tends to be associated with the extratropical North Pacific through a relay teleconnection of a fast coupled ocean-atmosphere bridge and a slow oceanic tunnel. A coupled ocean-atmosphere model, forced by the observed decadal wind in the extratropical North Pacific, explicitly demonstrates that extratropical decadal sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies may propagate to the tropics through a coupled wind-evaporative-SST (WES) feedback. The WES feedback cannot only lead to a nearly synchronous change of tropical SST, but also force a delayed adjustment of the meridional overturning circulation in the upper ocean to further sustain the tropical SST change. The study further suggests that the extratropical–tropical teleconnection provides a positive feedback to sustain the decadal changes in both the tropical and extratropical North Pacific.     

The role of ocean dynamics in producing decadal climate variability in the North Pacific

 Decadal time scale climate variability in the North Pacific has implications for climate both locally and over North America. A crucial question is the degree to which this variability arises from coupled ocean/atmosphere interactions over the North Pacific that involve ocean dynamics, as opposed to either purely thermodynamic effects of the oceanic mixed layer integrating in situ the stochastic atmospheric forcing, or the teleconnected response to tropical variability. The part of the variability that is coming from local coupled ocean/atmosphere interactions involving ocean dynamics is potentially predictable by an ocean/atmosphere general circulation model (O/A GCM), and such predictions could (depending on the achievable lead time) have distinct societal benefits. This question is examined using the results of fully coupled O/A GCMs, as well as targeted numerical experiments with stand-alone ocean and atmosphere models individually. It is found that coupled ocean/atmosphere interactions that involve ocean dynamics are important to determining the strength and frequency of a decadal-time scale peak in the spectra of several oceanic variables in the Kuroshio extension region off Japan. Local stochastic atmospheric heat flux forcing, integrated by the oceanic mixed layer into a red spectrum, provides a noise background from which the signal must be extracted. Although teleconnected ENSO responses influence the North Pacific in the 2–7 years/cycle frequency band, it is shown that some decadal-time scale processes in the North Pacific proceed without ENSO. Likewise, although the effects of stochastic atmospheric forcing on ocean dynamics are discernible, a feedback path from the ocean to the atmosphere is suggested by the results. Received: 23 January 2000 / Accepted: 10 January 2001     

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

An empirical model of decadal ENSO variability

This paper assesses potential predictability of decadal variations in the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) characteristics by constructing and performing simulations using an empirical nonlinear stochastic model of an ENSO index. The model employs decomposition of global sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies into the modes that maximize the ratio of interdecadal-to-subdecadal SST variance to define low-frequency predictors called the canonical variates (CVs). When the whole available SST time series is so processed, the leading canonical variate (CV-1) is found to be well correlated with the area-averaged SST time series which exhibits a non-uniform warming trend, while the next two (CV-2 and CV-3) describe secular variability arguably associated with a combination of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) signals. The corresponding ENSO model that uses either all three (CVs 1–3) or only AMO/PDO-related (CVs 2 and 3) predictors captures well the observed autocorrelation function, probability density function, seasonal dependence of ENSO, and, most importantly, the observed interdecadal modulation of ENSO variance. The latter modulation, and its dependence on CVs, is shown to be inconsistent with the null hypothesis of random decadal ENSO variations simulated by multivariate linear inverse models. Cross-validated hindcasts of ENSO variance suggest a potential useful skill at decadal lead times. These findings thus argue that decadal modulations of ENSO variability may be predictable subject to our ability to forecast AMO/PDO-type climate modes; the latter forecasts may need to be based on simulations of dynamical models, rather than on a purely statistical scheme as in the present paper.     

Case studies in interannual to decadal climate predictability

The predictability of ocean and climate variables is investigated, using a perfect model-based case study approach that recognises that predictability is dependent on the initial climate state. In line with previous studies, large scale ocean variables show predictability for several years or more; by contrast, the predictability of climate variables is generally limited to 2 years at most. That predictability shows high sensitivity to the initial state is demonstrated by predictable climate signals arising in different regions, variables and seasons for different initial conditions. The predictability of climate variables in the second year is of particular interest, because this is beyond the timescale that is usually considered to be the limit of seasonal predictability. For different initial conditions, second year predictability is found in: temperatures in southeastern North America (winter) and western Europe (winter and summer), and precipitation in India (summer monsoon) and in the tropical South Atlantic. Second year predictability arises either from persistence of large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) and related ocean heat content anomalies, particularly in regions such as the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean, or from mechanisms that involve El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics.     

Impact of different ocean reanalyses on decadal climate prediction

We study the impact of three ocean state estimates (GECCO, SODA, [ECMWF]-ORA-S3) on decadal predictability in one particular forecast system, the Earth system model from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg. The forecast procedure follows two steps. First, anomalies of temperature and salinity of the observational estimates are assimilated into our coupled model. Second, the assimilation runs are then used to initialize 10-year-long hindcasts/forecasts starting from each year between 1960 and 2001. The impact of the individual ocean state estimates is evaluated both by the extent to which climate variations from the ocean state estimates are adopted by the forecast system (‘fidelity’) and by the prediction skill of the corresponding hindcast experiments. The evaluation focuses on North Atlantic (NA) sea surface temperature (SST), upper-level (0–700?m) NA ocean heat content (OHC) and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). Regarding fidelity, correlations between observations and the assimilation runs are generally high for NA SST and NA OHC, except for NA OHC in the GECCO assimilation. MOC variations experience strong modifications when GECCO and SODA are assimilated, much less so when assimilating ORA-S3. Regarding prediction skill, when initializing with ORA-S3 and SODA, correlations with observations are high for NA OHC and moderate for NA SST. Correlations in case of GECCO, on the other hand, are high for NA SST and moderate for NA OHC. Relatively high MOC correlations between hindcasts and respective assimilation run appear in the first five years in GECCO in the tropics and subtropics and in ORA-S3 north of 50N. Correlations are largely reduced when the MOC signals are detrended. The trends in the assimilation runs are to some extent artifacts of the assimilation procedure. Hence, our potential predictabilities of the MOC are optimistic estimates of the upper limits of predictability. However, the ORA-S3 reanalysis gives the best results for our forecast system as measured by both overall fidelity of the assimilation procedure and predictions of upper-level OHC in the North Atlantic.     

Regional modeling of decadal rainfall variability over the Sahel

A regional climate model is used to investigate the mechanism of interdecadal rainfall variability, specifically the drought of the 1970s and 1980s, in the Sahel region of Africa. The model is the National Center for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEPs) Regional Spectral Model (RSM97), with a horizontal resolution of approximately equivalent to a grid spacing of 50 km, nested within the ECHAM4.5 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), which in turn was forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST). Simulations for the July–September season of the individual years 1955 and 1986 produced wet conditions in 1955 and dry conditions in 1986 in the Sahel, as observed. Additional July–September simulations were run forced by SSTs averaged for each month over the periods 1950–1959 and the 1978–1987. These simulations yielded wet conditions in the 1950–1959 case and dry conditions in the 1978–1987 case, confirming the role of SST forcing in decadal variability in particular. To test the hypothesis that the SST influences Sahel rainfall via stabilization of the tropospheric sounding, simulations were performed in which the temperature field from the AGCM was artificially modified before it was used to force the regional model. We modified the original 1955 ECHAM4.5 temperature profiles by adding a horizontally uniform, vertically varying temperature increase, taken from the 1986–1955 tropical mean warming in either the AGCM or the NCEP/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis. When compared to the 1955 simulations without the added tropospheric warming, these simulations show a drying in the Sahel similar to that in the 1986–1955 difference and to the decadal difference between the 1980s and 1950s. This suggests that the tropospheric warming may have been, at least in part, the agent by which the SST increases led to the Sahel drought of the 1970s and 1980s.     

Probabilistic multimodel ensemble prediction of decadal variability of East Asian surface air temperature based on IPCC-AR5 near-term climate simulations

Based on near-term climate simulations for IPCC-AR5 (The Fifth Assessment Report), probabilistic multimodel ensemble prediction (PMME) of decadal variability of surface air temperature in East Asia (20°-50 °N, 100°-145°E) was conducted using the multivariate Gaussian ensemble kernel dressing (GED) methodology. The ensemble system exhibited high performance in hindcasting the decadal (1981-2010) mean and trend of temperature anomalies with respect to 1961-90, with a RPS of 0.94 and 0.88 respectively. The interpretation of PMME for future decades (2006-35) over East Asia was made on the basis of the bivariate probability density of the mean and trend. The results showed that, under the RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 W m-2 ) scenario, the annual mean temperature increases on average by about 1.1-1.2 K and the temperature trend reaches 0.6-0.7 K (30 yr)-1 . The pattern for both quantities was found to be that the temperature increase will be less intense in the south. While the temperature increase in terms of the 30-yr mean was found to be virtually certain, the results for the 30-yr trend showed an almost 25% chance of a negative value. This indicated that, using a multimodel ensemble system, even if a longer-term warming exists for 2006-35 over East Asia, the trend for temperature may produce a negative value. Temperature was found to be more affected by seasonal variability, with the increase in temperature over East Asia more intense in autumn (mainly), faster in summer to the west of 115°E, and faster still in autumn to the east of 115°E.     

Quantitative assessment of the climate components driving the pacific decadal oscillation in climate models

The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is defined as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of the North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. In this study, we reconstructed the PDO using the first-order autoregressive model from various climate indices representing the El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO), Aleutian Low (AL), sea surface height (SSH), and thermocline depth over the Kuroshio–Oyashio extension (KOE) region. The climate indices were obtained from observation and twentieth-century simulations of the eight coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase III (CMIP3). In this manner, we quantitatively assessed the major climate components generating the PDO using observation and models. Based on observations, the PDO pattern in the central to eastern North Pacific was accurately reconstructed by the AL and ENSO indices, and that in the western North Pacific was best reconstructed by the SSH and thermocline indices. In the CMIP3 CGCMs, the relative contribution of each component to the generation of the PDO varied greatly from model to model, and observations, although the PDO patterns from most of the models were similar to the pattern observed. In the models, the PDO pattern in the eastern and western North Pacific were well reconstructed using the AL and SSH indices, respectively. However, the PDO pattern reconstructed by the ENSO index was quite different from the observed pattern, which was possibly due to the model's common deficiency in simulating the amplitude and location of the ENSO. Furthermore, the differences in the contribution of the KOE thermocline index between the observed pattern and most of the models indicated that the PDO pattern associated with ocean wave dynamics is not properly simulated by most models. Therefore, the virtually well simulated PDO pattern by models is a result of physically inconsistent processes.     

An overview of decadal climate predictability in a multi-model ensemble by climate model MIROC

Decadal climate predictability is examined in hindcast experiments by a multi-model ensemble using three versions of the coupled atmosphere-ocean model MIROC. In these hindcast experiments, initial conditions are obtained from an anomaly assimilation procedure using the observed oceanic temperature and salinity with prescribed natural and anthropogenic forcings on the basis of the historical data and future emission scenarios in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Results of the multi-model ensemble in our hindcast experiments show that predictability of surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies on decadal timescales mostly originates from externally forced variability. Although the predictable component of internally generated variability has considerably smaller SAT variance than that of externally forced variability, ocean subsurface temperature variability has predictive skills over almost a decade, particularly in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic where dominant signals associated with Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) are observed. Initialization enhances the predictive skills of AMO and PDO indices and slightly improves those of global mean temperature anomalies. Improvement of these predictive skills in the multi-model ensemble is higher than that in a single-model ensemble.     

Sahel rainfall and decadal to multi-decadal sea surface temperature variability

Decadal Sahelian rainfall variability was mainly driven by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during the twentieth century. At the same time SSTs showed a marked long-term global warming (GW) trend. Superimposed on this long-term trend decadal and multi-decadal variability patterns are observed like the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Using an atmospheric general circulation model we investigate the relative contribution of each component to the Sahelian precipitation variability. To take into account the uncertainty related to the use of different SST data sets, we perform the experiments using HadISST1 and ERSSTv3 reconstructed sets. The simulations show that all three SST signals have a significant impact over West Africa: the positive phases of the GW and the IPO lead to drought over the Sahel, while a positive AMO enhances Sahel rainfall. The tropical SST warming is the main cause for the GW impact on Sahel rainfall. Regarding the AMO, the pattern of anomalous precipitation is established by the SSTs in the Atlantic and Mediterranean basins. In turn, the tropical SST anomalies control the impact of the IPO component on West Africa. Our results suggest that the low-frequency evolution of Sahel rainfall can be interpreted as the competition of three factors: the effect of the GW, the AMO and the IPO. Following this interpretation, our results show that 50% of the SST-driven Sahel drought in the 1980s is explained by the change to a negative phase of the AMO, and that the GW contribution was 10%. In addition, the partial recovery of Sahel rainfall in recent years was mainly driven by the AMO.     

Marine proxy evidence linking decadal North Pacific and Atlantic climate

Decadal- to multidecadal variability in the extra-tropical North Pacific is evident in 20th century instrumental records and has significant impacts on Northern Hemisphere climate and marine ecosystems. Several studies have discussed a potential linkage between North Pacific and Atlantic climate on various time scales. On decadal time scales no relationship could be confirmed, potentially due to sparse instrumental observations before 1950. Proxy data are limited and no multi-centennial high-resolution marine geochemical proxy records are available from the subarctic North Pacific. Here we present an annually-resolved record (1818–1967) of Mg/Ca variations from a North Pacific/Bering Sea coralline alga that extends our knowledge in this region beyond available data. It shows for the first time a statistically significant link between decadal fluctuations in sea-level pressure in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The record is a lagged proxy for decadal-scale variations of the Aleutian Low. It is significantly related to regional sea surface temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in late boreal winter on these time scales. Our data show that on decadal time scales a weaker Aleutian Low precedes a negative NAO by several years. This atmospheric link can explain the coherence of decadal North Pacific and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, as suggested by earlier studies using climate models and limited instrumental data.     

The impact of resolution on the adjustment and decadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a coupled climate model

Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) exert an important influence on climate, particularly on decadal time scales. Simulation of the MOC in coupled climate models is compromised, to a degree that is unknown, by their lack of fidelity in resolving some of the key processes involved. There is an overarching need to increase the resolution and fidelity of climate models, but also to assess how increases in resolution influence the simulation of key phenomena such as the MOC. In this study we investigate the impact of significantly increasing the (ocean and atmosphere) resolution of a coupled climate model on the simulation of MOC variability by comparing high and low resolution versions of the same model. In both versions, decadal variability of the MOC is closely linked to density anomalies that propagate from the Labrador Sea southward along the deep western boundary. We demonstrate that the MOC adjustment proceeds more rapidly in the higher resolution model due the increased speed of western boundary waves. However, the response of the Atlantic sea surface temperatures to MOC variations is relatively robust—in pattern if not in magnitude—across the two resolutions. The MOC also excites a coupled ocean-atmosphere response in the tropical Atlantic in both model versions. In the higher resolution model, but not the lower resolution model, there is evidence of a significant response in the extratropical atmosphere over the North Atlantic 6?years after a maximum in the MOC. In both models there is evidence of a weak negative feedback on deep density anomalies in the Labrador Sea, and hence on the MOC (with a time scale of approximately ten years). Our results highlight the need for further work to understand the decadal variability of the MOC and its simulation in climate models.