Study of the Optimal Precursors for Blocking Events

The precursors of dipole blocking are obtained by a numerical approach based upon a quasi-geostrophic barotropie planetary- to synoptic-scale interaction model without topography and with a localized synopticscale wave-maker. The optimization problem related to the precursors of blocking is formulated and the nonlinear optimization method is used to examine the optimal synoptic-scale initial field successfully. The results show that the prominent characteristics of the optimal synoptic-scale initial field are that the synoptic-scale wave train structures exist upstream of the incipient blocking. In addition, the large-scale low/high eddy-forcing pattern upstream of the incipient blocking is an essential precondition for the onset of dipole blocking.     

Split-Explicit Integration of Primitive Equation Barotropic Model for the Prediction of Movement of Monsoon Depression

The split-explicit version of a limited area primitive equation barotropic model is formulated and tested for the prediction of movement of monsoon depressions. The model is integrated upto 48 hours with split-explicit time integration scheme (Gadd, 1978a) using input of four synoptic cases. The model is also integrated explicitly. The forecast results obtained from both the versions are compared and discussed. The computational time in former version is less than half of the computational time needed in explicit version.     

An Intercomparison of Rules for Testing the Significance of Coupled Modes of Singular Value Decomposition Analysis

This paper clarifies the essence of the significance test of singular value decomposition analysis （SVD）, and investigates four rules for testing the significance of coupled modes of SVD, including parallel analysis, nonparametric bootstrap, random-phase test, and a new rule named modified parallel analysis. A numerical experiment is conducted to quantitatively compare the performance of the four rules in judging whether a coupled mode of SVD is significant as parameters such as the sample size, the number of grid points, and the signal-to-noise ratio vary.
The results show that the four rules perform better with lower ratio of the number of grid points to sample size. Modified parallel analysis and nonparametric bootstrap perform best to abandon the spurious coupled modes, but the latter is better than the former to retain the significant coupled modes when the sample size is not much larger than the number of grid points. Parallel analysis and random-phase test are robust to abandon the spurious coupled modes only when either （1） the observations at the grid points are spatially uncorrelated, or （2） the coupled signal is very strong for parallel analysis and is not weak for random-phase test. The reasons affecting the accuracy of the test rules are discussed.     

An Efficient Accurate Direct Solution of Poisson''''s Equation for Computation of Meteorological Parameters

Poisson's equation is solved numerically by two direct methods, viz. Block Cyclic Reduction (BCR) method and Fourier Method. Qualitative and quantitative comparison between the numerical solutions obtained by two methods indicates that BCR method is superior to Fourier method in terms of speed and accuracy. Therefore. BCR method is applied to solve (?)2(?)= ζ and (?)2X= D from observed vorticity and divergent values. Thereafter the rotational and divergent components of the horizontal monsoon wind in the lower troposphere are reconstructed and are com pared with the results obtained by Successive Over-Relaxation (SOR) method as this indirect method is generally in more use for obtaining the streamfunction ((?)) and velocity potential (X) fields in NWP models. It is found that the results of BCR method are more reliable than SOR method.     

Some Splitting Methods for Equations of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics

In this paper, equations of atmospheric and oceanic dynamics are reduced to a kind of evolutionary equation in operator form, based on which a conclusion that the separability of motion stages is relative is made and an issue that the tractional splitting methods established on the physical separability of the fast stage and the slow stage neglect the interaction between the two stages to some extent is shown. Also, three splitting patterns are summed up from the splitting methods in common use so that a comparison between them is carried out. The comparison shows that only the improved splitting pattern (ISP) can be in second order and keep the interaction well. Finally, the applications of some splitting methods on numerical simulations of typhoon tracks made clear that ISP owns the best effect and can save more than 80% CPU time.     

Performance of GCMs for seasonal prediction over India��a case study for 2009 monsoon

The 2009 drought in India was one of the major droughts that the country faced in the last 100?years. This study describes the anomalous features of 2009 summer monsoon and examines real-time seasonal predictions made using six general circulation models (GCMs). El Ni?o conditions evolved in the Pacific Ocean, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Indian Ocean were warmer than normal during monsoon 2009. The observed circulation patterns indicate a weaker monsoon in that year over India with weaker than normal convection over the Bay of Bengal and Indian landmass. Skill of the GCMs during hindcast period shows that neither these models simulate the observed interannual variability nor their multi-model ensemble (MME) significantly improves the skill of monsoon rainfall predictions. Except for one model used in this study, the real-time predictions with longer lead (2- and 1-month lead) made for the 2009 monsoon season did not provide any indication of a highly anomalous monsoon. However, with less lead time (zero lead), most of the models as well as the MME had provided predictions of below normal rainfall for that monsoon season. This study indicates that the models could not predict the 2009 drought over India due to the use of less warm SST anomalies over the Pacific in the longer lead runs. Hence, it is proposed that the uncertainties in SST predictions (the lower boundary condition) have to be represented in the model predictions of summer monsoon rainfall over India.     

Criteria for the Nonlinear Stability of Three-Dimensional Quasi-Geostrophic Motions

Some more proper criteria for the nonlinear stability of three-dimensional quasi-geostrophic motions are given by combining variational principle with a prior estimates method. The criteria are suitable for perturbations of initial condition as well as parameters in the model. The basic flow can be steady or unsteady. Particularly the difficulty due to the nonlinear boundary condition is completely overcome by the use of our method.     

Numerical Simulations of the Physical Process for Hailstone Growth

1. IntroductionTheoretical and experimental studies on the phys-ical processes of hail growth (Schumann, 1938; Lud-lan, 1958; List, 1963) showed that its growth rate andstructural characteristics depend on the heat and masstransfers; its dynamic characteristics determine hail-stone's movement and stay in clouds and damage doneto ground bodies, actually controlling the growth in-side clouds. As we know, the heat transfers affectsdirectly hailstone's wet growth, melting and evapo-ration. In the…     

On Lidar Application for Remote Sensing of the Atmosphere

This paper introduces some advanced subjects on lidar remote sensing of the atmosphere, emphasizing recent studies and developments in lidar application for measuring ozone, cloud, aerosol, atmospheric temperature, moisture, pressure and wind.     

An evaluation of extrapolation techniques for the short‐term prediction of rain amounts

Abstract

Twenty‐seven radar cells from the Tropical Atlantic observed during GATE were followed and measurements of their fluxes and areas for initial time increments T₀ were fitted to various extrapolation schemes. The extrapolation procedure that gave the smallest error inforecasting the changes influx and area, was found to be the linear one and the optimum increment T₀ was about 30 min. However, even though these techniques have the advantage of establishing a trend in the behaviour of the flux and area with time, a comparison of the forecast errors from the linear extrapolation scheme with those from the “status quo” (persistence) assumption shows little if any improvement.

A technique including both cell motion and internal changes influx and area of the rain cells was developed to evaluate the accuracy of rain accumulation forecasts. It was found that the errors generated by the “status quo” assumption were of the order of 77% for a 2‐h forecast with little improvement by allowing for the extrapolation of area and flux.     

Construction of Vertical Wind Profile from Satellite-Derived Winds for Objective Analysis of Wind Field

During summer Monex-79, a variety of observing systems viz. research ships, research aircrafts, constant pressure balloons and geostationary satellite etc. were deployed, besides the regular conventional observations. The purpose of these additional systems was to make the best possible data for the studies on various aspects of monsoon circulation. The present study is aimed at the construction of vertical wind profile using cloud motion vectors obtained from GOES (I-O) satellite and to examine whether the constructed wind profiles improves the representation of the monsoon system, flow pattern etc. in the objective analysis. For this purpose, climatological normals of the wind field are considered as the initial guess and the objective analyses of the wind field are made with, first using only data from conventional observations over land areas, subsequently including the constructed winds from cloud motion vectors. These analyses are then compared with the standard analyses of wind field obtained fro     

Structure Reform of the Research Center for Atmospheric Sounding Techniques

For many years, the technical achievements in the Research Center for Atmospheric Sounding Techniques that can be put to operational use or enter the market are very few. Therefore, the Research Center for Atmospheric Sounding Techniques must adapt to the market, becoming an enterprise entity. The goal of reform is to establish a high-technology enterprise entity integrating the research and development, integration, testing and marketing of products together.     

Comparison of Satellite and Ship Observations for Total Cloud Amount

The data series of monthly clouldiness over global ocean from COADS was compared with that of from satellite Nimbus-7 during April 1979 to March 1985. The correspondence between them is good. Both the two methods of observation can provide useful information of the distribution of cloudiness and the two data sets can be mutually complementary.     

Main Achievements of Research on Techniques for Preventing Agrometeorological Disasters

TheprojectResearchonTechniquesforPreventingAgrometeorologicalDisasters(96-020)wassetupbytheChineseMinistryofScienceandTechnologyduringthe"9thFive-YearPlan.TheprojectwasauthorizedtoputinpracticeinOctober1996.ThechiefscientistsareProfessorXuXiangdeandProfessorWangFutang(ChineseAcademyofMeteorologicalSciences).TheprojectwastakenonjointlybytheChineseMeteorologicalAdministration,theMinistryofWaterResource,theMinistryofForestry,theMinistryofAgricultureandtheChineseAcademyofSciences.Si…     

Inter-Comparison of lO-year Precipitation Simulated by Several RCMs for Asia

In phase Ⅱ of the Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project （RMIP） for Asia, the regional climate has been simulated for July 1988 through December 1998 by five regional climate models and one global variable resolution model. Comparison of the 10-year simulated precipitation with the observations was carried out. The results show that most models have the capacity to reproduce the basic spatial pattern of precipitation for Asia, and the main rainbelt can be reproduced by most models, but there are distinctions in the location and the intensity. Most models overestimate the precipitation over most continental regions. Interannual variability of the precipitation can also be basically simulated, while differences exist between various models and the observations. The biases in the stream field are important reasons behind the simulation errors of the Regional Climate Models （RCMs）. The cumulus scheme and land surface process have large influences on the precipitation simulation. Generally, the Grell cumulus scheme produces more precipitation than the Kuo scheme.     

An Efficient Accurate Direct Solution of Poisson’s Equation for Computation of Meteorological Parameters

Poisson's equation is solved numerically by two direct methods, viz. Block Cyclic Reduction (BCR) method and Fourier Method. Qualitative and quantitative comparison between the numerical solutions obtained by two methods indicates that BCR method is superior to Fourier method in terms of speed and accuracy. Therefore. BCR method is applied to solve (?)2(?)= ζ and (?)2X= D from observed vorticity and divergent values. Thereafter the rotational and divergent components of the horizontal monsoon wind in the lower troposphere are reconstructed and are com pared with the results obtained by Successive Over-Relaxation (SOR) method as this indirect method is generally in more use for obtaining the streamfunction ((?)) and velocity potential (X) fields in NWP models. It is found that the results of BCR method are more reliable than SOR method.     

Assessment of thermal bioclimate and tourism climate potential for central Europe—the example of Luxembourg

Tourism destinations often require information about climate to assess their climate potential. This can be performed in terms of mean conditions of relevant climatological parameters. For a user-friendly analysis and visualization of climate data relevant for tourism application in Luxembourg, information is prepared based on the facets of climate in tourism. Information on thermal comfort/stress conditions as well as aesthetical and physical parameters is considered. In the present study, relevant and sensible factors were identified and presented. Therefore, physiologically equivalent temperature, precipitation patterns and the Climate-Tourism/Transfer-Information-Scheme are applied. In addition, extreme events relevant for heat stress are analysed based on existing data sets (i.e. heat waves of 2010). Expected climatic conditions for the future are investigated using the projections of two different regional climate models. The results concerning climate change conditions reveal increasing heat stress and sultriness but decreasing cold stress. This information is the basis for an adequate assessment to provide relevant information for different environmental planning issues as well as for the growing tourism sector of Luxembourg.     

Study of the Simultaneous Physical Retrieval Method for Meteorological Parameters over the Continental Plateau of China

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