Precipitation analysis over southwest Iran: trends and projections

Analysis of trends and projection of precipitation are of significance for the future development and management of water resource in southwest Iran. This research has been divided into two parts. The first part consists of an analysis of the precipitation over 50 stations in the study region for the period 1950–2007. The trends in this parameter were detected by linear regression and significance was tested by t test. Mann–Kendall rank test was also employed to confirm the results. The second part of the research involved future projection of precipitation based on four models. The models used were Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques (CNRM), European Center Hamburg Model (ECHAM), Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROCH) and United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMOC). Precipitation projections were done under B1 and A1B emissions scenarios. The results of precipitation series indicated that most stations showed insignificant trend in annual and seasonal series. The highest numbers of stations with significant trends occurred in winter while no significant trends were detected by statistical tests in summer precipitation. No decreasing significant trends were detected by statistical tests in annual and seasonal precipitation series. The result of projections showed that precipitation may decrease according to majority of the models under both scenarios but the decrease may not be large, except according to MIROCH model. Autumn precipitation may increase with higher rates than other seasons at the end of this century.     

Comparison of two drought indices in studying regional meteorological drought events in China

The composite-drought index (CI), improved weighted average of precipitation index (IWAP), and the objective identification technique for regional extreme events (OITREE) were employed to detect China's regional meteorological drought events (CRMDEs) during 1961–2010. Compared with existing references, CI and IWAP both showed strong ability in identifying CRMDEs. Generally, the results of CI and IWAP were consistent, especially for extreme and severe CRMDEs. During 1961–2010, although the frequencies of extreme and severe CRMDEs based on CI and IWAP both showed weak decreasing trends, the two mean-integrated indices both showed increasing but not significant trends. However, the results of IWAP were more reasonable than CI’s in two aspects. Firstly, the monthly frequency of extreme and severe CRMDEs based on IWAP showed a clear seasonal variation, which coincided with the seasonal variation of the East Asian monsoon over central–eastern China, whereas the frequency based on CI presented a much weaker seasonal variation. Secondly, the two sets of results were sometimes inconsistent with respect to the start and end times of a CRMDE, and CRMDEs based on CI generally showed two unreasonable phenomena: (1) under non-drought conditions, a severe drought stage could suddenly occur in a large area; and (2) during the following period, drought could alleviate gradually in cases of non-precipitation. Comparative analysis suggested that the IWAP drought index possesses obvious advantages in detecting and monitoring regional drought events.     

Investigation of meteorological extreme events over coastal regions of Iran

In this study, in order to detect probable trends and effects of climatic extreme events of precipitation and temperature as well as maximum relative humidity, dew point temperature, sunshine hours, and wind speed, 12 stations on the northern and southern coastlines of Iran were investigated from 1977 to 2007. For this purpose, 27 indices of precipitation and temperature, which are specified by the Expert Team of the World Meteorological Organization and Climate Variability and Predictability, were calculated by using RClimDex software. The Mann?CKendall method was also used to detect possible trends in the data time series. The results indicate that temperature indices are absolutely consistent with warming. Warm nights, hot days, and hot day and night frequencies increased, while cold spell and cool day and night frequencies declined. The minimum temperature experienced a considerable rise both in its maximum and minimum values. The minimum temperature had a higher increase than the maximum temperature. Therefore, diurnal temperature ranges have experienced dramatic declines. In the northern coastal sites, hot day frequency and hottest day temperature showed higher magnitudes than those of the southern sites as a result of the significant increase in the maximum sunshine hours in northern stations. This enhancement led to a considerable increase in the maximum wind speed. Consequently, relative humidity declined in the northern sites. Precipitation indices indicate few significant trends over the studied period. Temporal precipitation distribution was different from station to station. Three precipitation patterns were detected at individual stations, although an overall regional rainfall pattern was not detectable. On the whole, the results of this study emphasize that the water resources in the studied area are going to become problematic.     

青藏高原气象要素场低频特征及其与夏季区域降水的关系

利用１９９５～１９９８年中日季风实验期间拉萨等４个高原自动天气站观测资料,结合１９９５／１９９６年ＮＣＥＰ／ＮＣＡＲ逐日资料,研究了青藏高原气象要素场低频位相结构特征及其与我国夏季不同区域降水的关系。发现夏季低频感热和低频潜热具有同位相３０～５０d振荡,当低频感热增强,则同期高原降水量减少;反之,则高原降水量增加,代频 纬向风传播分析发同１９９５／１９９６年冬季高原是低频振荡的汇,２００ｈＰａ低频纬     

The relationship between precipitation heterogeneity and meteorological drought/flood in China

In this study, we investigated the spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation heterogeneity and meteorological drought/flood in China based on the precipitation-concentration degree (PCD) and the integrated meteorological drought index. We also studied the corresponding relationship between precipitation heterogeneity and meteorological drought/flood in China by using Spearman correlation analysis and canonical correlation analysis. The results show that: (1) The severity of meteorological drought/flood exhibited a spatial pattern of gradual change from Northwest to Southeast China. (2) With a higher PCD and a delayed precipitation-concentration period (PCP), the drought severity was higher but the flood severity was lower. In contrast, with a lower PCD and an early PCP, the drought severity was lower and the flood severity was higher. (3) The correlation between meteorological drought/flood and PCD was significant. The higher the PCD, the longer the duration of drought and more frequently, the droughts occurred, and vice versa. It is concluded that PCD and PCP were significantly correlated with meteorological drought/flood in China.     

江西省霾天气气候特征及其与气象条件的关系

利用1980-2011年江西83个常规站和南昌、赣州2个探空站的观测资料,对江西霾的气候特征及其与气象条件的关系进行了分析。结果表明：近32 a来江西霾日总体呈上升趋势;霾日的季节、年际和年代际变化明显,秋冬季多（12月最多）春夏季少（7月最少）,4 a左右和8 a左右的年际变化周期显著,年代际变化主要为15 a左右的变化周期;江西霾日空间分布不均,呈现中北部多,南部及山区少的分布形势。霾与地面风速、大气逆温、海平面气压、降雨量和相对湿度密切相关,低风速、大气逆温、高气压、高湿度和少降雨有利于霾天气的发生,反之,高风速、低气压、低湿度和多降雨不利于霾天气的发生。     

1960—2010年中国西南地区区域性气象干旱事件的特征分析

利用区域性极端事件客观识别法（Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Events,OITREE）和1960—2010年中国西南地区（四川、云南、贵州省和重庆市）101个站综合气象干旱指数（CI）进行区域性气象干旱事件识别研究,确定了相应的OITREE方法参数组,并识别得出87次中国西南地区区域性气象干旱事件,其中9次达到极端强度,而2009年9月—2010年4月发生的特大干旱是中国西南地区近50年最严重的区域性气象干旱事件。进一步分析表明,中国西南地区区域性气象干旱事件的持续时间一般为10—80 d,最长可达231 d;11—4月是西南地区的旱季。云南和四川南部是西南干旱的频发和强度中心地区;强的（极端及重度）干旱事件可分为5种分布类型,其中南部型出现机会最多。过去50年西南地区区域性气象干旱事件频次显著增多,强度有所增强,其主要原因可能是该地区降水量显著减少所致,而气温升高也起到了推波助澜的作用。     

沈阳近地层大气颗粒物浓度垂直变化特征及与气象因子的关系

利用2018年10月1日至2019年9月30日沈阳地区三个高度大气颗粒物浓度和气象要素逐时观测资料,分析了不同高度颗粒物浓度时间变化特征及其与气象要素的关系.结果表明:不同高度的颗粒物浓度均存在明显的季节变化,秋冬季数值明显高于春夏季.冬季,三个高度的PM2.5平均浓度为54.98±12.67μg·m-3、63.77±...     

Factors contributing to the development of extreme North Atlantic cyclones and their relationship with the NAO

The occurrence of extreme cyclones is analysed in terms of their relationship to the NAO phase and the dominating environmental variables controlling their intensification. These are latent energy (equivalent potential temperature 850 hPa is used as an indicator), upper-air baroclinicity, horizontal divergence and jet stream strength. Cyclones over the North Atlantic are identified and tracked using a numerical algorithm, permitting a detailed analysis of their life cycles. Extreme cyclones are selected as the 10% most severe in terms of intensity. Investigations focus on the main strengthening phase of each cyclone. The environmental factors are related to the NAO, which affects the location and orientation of the cyclone tracks, thus explaining why extreme cyclones occur more (less) frequently during strong positive (negative) NAO phases. The enhanced number of extreme cyclones in positive NAO phases can be explained by the larger area with suitable growth conditions, which is better aligned with the cyclone tracks and is associated with increased cyclone life time and intensity. Moreover, strong intensification of cyclones is frequently linked to the occurrence of extreme values of growth factors in the immediate vicinity of the cyclone centre. Similar results are found for ECHAM5/OM1 for present day conditions, demonstrating that relationships between the environment factors and cyclones are also valid in the GCM. For future climate conditions (following the SRES A1B scenario), the results are similar, but a small increase of the frequency of extreme values is detected near the cyclone cores. On the other hand, total cyclone numbers decrease by 10% over the North Atlantic. An exception is the region near the British Isles, which features increased track density and intensity of extreme cyclones irrespective of the NAO phase. These changes are associated with an intensified jet stream close to Europe. Moreover, an enhanced frequency of explosive developments over the British Isles is found, leading to more frequent windstorms affecting Europe.

Variations of 500 hPa flow patterns over Iranand surrounding areas and their relationship with the climate of Iran

Summary In order to explore the spatial and temporal variations of 500 hPa flow patterns and their relationship with the climate of Iran, monthly mean geopotential heights for the region 0° E to 70° E and 20° N to 50° N, at 5 degree resolution, were analysed. The study period covered the winter months October to March during the period 1961–90. The monthly height of the 500 hPa level was averaged along each meridian from 25° N to 45° N. The height of the mean monthly pressure pattern was mapped against the study years. The results showed that the characteristics of the 500 hPa flow pattern varied over monthly and annual time scales. Principal Component Analysis, with S-mode and Varimax rotation, was also used to reduce the gridded data to 5 (6 in October) significant factors. The factor scores for each month were then correlated with monthly Z-scores of precipitation and temperature anomalies over Iran. The results showed that troughs and ridges located close to Iran had more influence on the climate of Iran. Two troughs were identified and named the Caspian and Syrian troughs. Received April 12, 2001 Revised July 24, 2001     

Circulation over Bulgaria and its connection with NAO indices and Sea Surface Temperatures

Trends in atmospheric pressure, circulation and some relationships between North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices, sea surface temperatures, and atmospheric circulation over Bulgaria are discussed in this article. Data for measured atmospheric pressure at stations Burgas, Pleven, and Sandanski are used. Information about atmospheric circulation over Bulgaria was obtained using sea level pressure and 700 hPa Omega (vertical velocity) reanalysis daily data for grid cells covering the territory of Bulgaria for the period 1948–2010. Zonal and meridional indices for Bulgaria were also calculated based on the data for sea level pressure. NAO index calculated by NOAA and NCAR is correlated with atmospheric pressure and circulation. A total of 12 areas in three major water basins influencing Bulgarian climate—North Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Black Seas—were studied. Main methods employed in the article are statistical—trend analysis, multiple linear regression, correlation, nonparametric tests, etc. There is no change in the mean values of atmospheric pressure over Bulgaria. Circulation over Bulgaria during the research period increases its anticyclonal patterns mainly due to the decrease of the number of cyclones. Dynamics in zonal and meridional indices for Bulgaria result in an increase of the northwest transport in the winter and an increase of the northeast transport in the summer. Cyclones over Bulgaria determine the values of atmospheric pressure. Influence of the NAO on atmospheric pressure and circulation is stronger in winter. Atmospheric processes, expressed by the number of cyclones and anticyclones, are most active in spring. Current trends are towards increasing of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) at all investigated places. Temporally, the effect of SSTs on the number of cyclones, anticyclones, zonal and meridional indices for Bulgaria during the different seasons comes with a delay of 1 to 3 months. Constructed multiple linear regression (MLR) models with predictors SSTs adequately describe the atmospheric circulation over Bulgaria. There is a clear pattern of SSTs distribution, which leads to a higher number of cyclones over Bulgaria in winter—lower than normal temperatures in the Aegean Sea and higher than normal in the Black Sea. A decrease in the difference of temperatures between the Gulf Stream and western colder parts leads to higher values of winter zonal transport over Bulgaria. Higher than normal temperatures in Black Sea lead to a higher number of cyclones in spring. Higher difference in temperatures of the North Atlantic leads to a stronger cyclogenesis and enhanced zonal transport, which affects autumn circulation over Bulgaria.     

Future changes in drought characteristics over South Korea using multi regional climate models with the standardized precipitation index

In this study, the projection of future drought conditions is estimated over South Korea based on the latest and most advanced sets of regional climate model simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios, within the context of the national downscaling project of the Republic of Korea. The five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are used to produce climate-change simulations around the Korean Peninsula and to estimate the uncertainty associated with these simulations. The horizontal resolution of each RCM is 12.5 km and model simulations are available for historical (1981-2010) and future (2021-2100) periods under forcing from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. To assess the characteristics of drought on multiple time scales in the future, we use Standardized Precipitation Indices for 1-month (SPI- 1), 6-month (SPI-6) and 12-month (SPI-12). The number of drought months in the future is shown to be characterized by strong variability, with both increasing and decreasing trends among the scenarios. In particular, the number of drought months over South Korea is projected to increase (decrease) for the period 2041-2070 in the RCP8.5 (RCP4.5) scenario and increase (decrease) for the period 2071-2100 in the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. In addition, the percentage area under any drought condition is overall projected to gradually decrease over South Korea during the entire future period, with the exception of SPI-1 in the RCP4.5 scenario. Particularly, the drought areas for SPI-1 in the RCP4.5 scenario show weakly positive long-term trend. Otherwise, future changes in drought areas for SPI-6 and SPI-12 have a marked downward trend under the two RCP scenarios.     

The relationship between NAO and temperature in Hungary and its nonlinear connection with ENSO

Summary ?Homogenized monthly and annual mean temperatures for ten locations in Hungary from 1901 to 1999 are analyzed. A principal component analysis was performed and the first new component containing 94.5% of the total variance has been retained. A linear regression of this variable on a sea level pressure NAO index results in relatively weak correlations. In order to consider the trends in both data series, a polynomial of years is added to the regression. After a selection of the optimal polynomial orders by Akaike’s criteria the correlation coefficients are significantly increased. The Southern Oscillation Index (SO index) characterizing the El Ni?o – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is then incorporated in the relationship via a nonlinear, threshold model. The threshold model consists of the above linear regressions but is conditioned on the SO index threshold variable. The rationale behind this approach is to allow a change of model performance according to ENSO phase. The thresholds are not pre-specified but are estimated from the data, while the number of thresholds is chosen by Akaike’s criteria. A likelihood ratio test shows an improvement of these models over the linear model with very strong significance levels, except in June. Received March 25, 2002; revised June 20, 2002; accepted June 23, 2002     

鲁西南地区主要气象灾害时空分布特征分析

基于中国气象局气象灾害管理系统冰雹灾情数据,运用统计方法和GIS技术,对2010—2020年中国冰雹灾害事件时空分布特征进行研究,结果表明: (1) 2010—2020年,全国冰雹事件出现的站数和站日数在增加,大冰雹事件则相反呈减少趋势。(2) 冰雹季节性明显,夏季和冬季分别为冰雹站日数最多和最少的季节,6月最多,11月最少,西南和华中地区表现为双峰结构,其他为单峰结构;大冰雹月变化与冰雹类似,但12月最少,且在西南地区表现为单峰结构。(3)日变化上,冰雹/大冰雹主要集中于午后至傍晚。华南呈现双峰结构,其他地区呈单峰结构,西北地区峰值出现时间比其他地区晚1 h。(4) 空间分布上,西北、西南和华北地区的冰雹/大冰雹站日数明显高于其它地区,而东北、华南大冰雹站日数比例高于其他地区。冰雹/大冰雹年均日数呈带状多区分布,最多的为云贵高原,其次为秦岭、阴山、大兴安岭及天山一带。而低发区的华东地区在春季反而成为大冰雹的高发区。(5) 海拔高度分布上,在1.5—2 km处最易出现冰雹,在1— 1.5 km高度上最易出现大冰雹;冬季冰雹主要在海拔高度2 km以下,随着温度升高,高海拔冰雹逐渐增多,9月高海拔地区冰雹比例达到最大。

     

冬季北大西洋涛动与中国西南地区降水的不对称关系

利用1951-2010年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和中国160个站逐月降水资料,探讨了冬季北大西洋涛动(NAO)与同期中国西南地区降水的关系.结果表明,冬季北大西洋涛动与西南地区降水存在显著的正相关关系,并且,正相关具有不对称性,即当冬季北大西洋涛动处于负位相时,东亚地区环流形势不利于中国西南地区降水的形成,对应着中国西南地区冬季降水的显著减少.而当冬季北大西洋涛动处于正位相时,北大西洋涛动与中国西南地区降水的正相关关系并不显著.进一步的分析表明,与中国西南冬季降水变化密切相关的主要环流结构是里海和中东—阿拉伯海—青藏高原及其下游的遥相关型(CAT遥相关型).北大西洋涛动与里海和中东阿拉伯海—青藏高原及其下游的遥相关结构存在不对称关系,两者的关系仅在北大西洋涛动负位相时显著.冬季北大西洋涛动高、低指数年分别合成的波射线和波作用通量的结果表明,当冬季北大西洋涛动为负位相时,冬季地中海地区的扰动源会形成与里海和中东—阿拉伯海—青藏高原及其下游的遥相关路径一致的波射线,同时波作用通量的结果表明,定常波由里海和中东、阿拉伯海一直传播到青藏高原及下游地区,而冬季北大西洋涛动高指数年,地中海地区的扰动源所形成的波射线偏北,波动传播到达印度半岛地区之后不再向下游传播.冬季北大西洋涛动对里海和中东—阿拉伯海—青藏高原及其下游的遥相关波列的不对称影响决定了北大西洋涛动与西南冬季降水的不对称关系.     

西南地区台站气象探测环境保护问题探讨

该文从中国西南三省气象台站气象探测环境保护的现状入手,结合气象探测环境保护相关法律法规,分析问题存在的原因,并结合自身工作实际,对气象探测环境保护提出了一些有效的见解。     

Physical mechanisms of European winter snow cover variability and its relationship to the NAO

Annual snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased in the past two decades, an effect associated with global warming. The regional scale changes of snow cover during winter, however, vary significantly from one region to another. In the present study, snow cover variability over Europe and its connection to other atmospheric variables was investigated using Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function (CSEOF) analysis. The evolution of atmospheric variables related to each CSEOF mode of snow cover variability was derived via regression analysis in CSEOF space. CSEOF analysis clearly shows that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is related to European snow cover, particularly in January and February. A negative NAO phase tends to result in a snow cover increases, whereas a positive NAO phase results in snow cover decreases. The temporal changes in the connection between the NAO and European snow cover are explained by time-dependent NAO-related temperature anomalies. If the NAO phase is negative, the temperature is lower in Europe and snow cover increases; by contrast, when the NAO phase is positive, the temperature is higher and snow cover decreases. Temperature and snow cover variations in Europe are associated with the thermal advection by anomalous wind by NAO. CSEOF analysis also shows an abrupt increase of snow cover in December and January and a decrease in February and March since the year 2000, approximately. This abrupt change is associated with sub-seasonal variations of atmospheric circulation in the study region.     

北半球夏季西北太平洋热带地区西南季风强弱变化与南半球环流型的关系

本文分析了1978年夏季西北太平洋西南季风的强弱变化与南半球500mb环流形势的关系,发现当南半球出现经向环流型时,西南季风相应增强,反之,出现纬向环流型时,西南季风则减弱。 在南半球稳定的经向环流形势控制下,冷空气可以影响到低纬地带,高空长波槽后冷高压北侧的东南大风在其相对固定的通道上形成一股强而持久的越赤道气流,在北半球环流条件有利的情况下,这股越赤道气流可以在西北太平洋上转向成西南气流,导致该地区西南季风增强。由于南半球的长波槽容易在澳洲大陆东西两岸同时停滞加深,因此越赤道气流的路径则相对集中在这两