Shear-wave polarizations in the Peter the First Range indicating crack-induced anisotropy in a thrust-fault regime

Summary. Three-component seismograms of small local earthquakes recorded in the Peter the First Range of mountains near Garm, Tadzhikistan SSR, display shear-wave splitting similar to that previously observed near the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey. The Peter the First Range is in a region of compressional tectonics, whereas the North Anatolian Fault is a comparatively simple strike-slip fault. Detailed analysis of the Turkish records suggests that the splitting is diagnostic of crack-induced anisotropy caused by vertical microcracks aligned parallel to the direction of maximum compression. Preliminary examination of paper records from Garm shows that most shear waves arriving within the shear-wave window display shear-wave splitting, and that the polarizations of leading shear-waves are consistently aligned in a NE/SW direction. The area is complicated and the tectonics are not well-understood, but the NE/SW direction is approximately perpendicular to the compressional axis in many of the fault-plane mechanisms of the earthquakes. These earthquakes are usually at depths between 5 and 12 km, although there are some deeper events nearby.
Parallel shear-wave polarizations, such as those observed, are expected to indicate the strike of nearly vertical parallel microcracks, which would be aligned parallel to the direction of maximum compression. Thus the shear-wave polarizations in the Peter the First Range indicate that the directions of principal stress are reversed in the rock above the earthquake foci where thrust faulting is taking place.     

Tectonics of the Marmara Sea region of Turkey: new evidence from microearthquake fault plane solutions

Summary. Composite and single-event fault plane solutions for microearthquakes in the Izmit Bay area of the Marmara Sea indicate right-lateral strike-slip motion and tension on this extension of the North Anatolian Fault. This interpretation is consistent with teleseismically determined fault-plane solutions obtained for large earthquakes on the Marmara Sea seismic lineation. Consideration of the microplate geometry of north-western Turkey, inferred from seismicity as well as earthquake mechanisms, suggests that the region comprises two seismotectonic units with differing styles of deformation. The (Anatolid) structures of south- and central-western Anatolia are undergoing major extension, whereas the (Pontid) structures of the Marmara Sea region are being sheared, resulting in a mixed regime of both strike-slip and extensional faulting.     

The MARNET radiolinked seismometer network spanning the Marmara Sea and the seismicity of Western Turkey

Summary. The MARNET telemetered seismic network spanning the Marmara Sea supplements the ISK network of conventional seismic stations and increases the resolution for monitoring the seismicity in Western Turkey. Seismicity maps for the period 1976 to 1981 display pronounced swarm-type activity where small earthquakes cluster in the same locality. Three types of seismic activity can be identified and related to present-day tectonic deformation: normal earthquake episodes associated with the main line of the North Anatolian Fault; continuous swarm activity, but with marked fluctuations and bursts of activity in the tensional regime south of a line from Izmir to Adapazari; and continuous activity with only minor fluctuations within the Marmara region as it is sheared by the westward movement of the main Anatolian plate.     

Microseismicity and focal mechanisms at the western termination of the North Anatolian Fault and their implications for continental tectonics

For seven weeks, a temporary network of 68 seismological stations was operated in Central Greece, in the region of Thessaly and Evia, located at the western termination of the North Anatolian Fault system. We recorded 510 earthquakes and computed 80 focal mechanisms. Seismic activity is associated with the NE–SW dextral North Aegean Fault, or with very young E–W-striking normal faults that are located around the Gulf of Volos and the Gulf of Lamia. The important NW–SE-striking faults bounding the Pilion, or the basins of Larissa and Karditsa, are not seismically active, suggesting that it is easier to break continental crust, creating new faults perpendicular to the principal stresses, than to reactivate faults that strike obliquely to the principal stress axes     

Microearthquakes in the TDP swarm, Turkey: clustering in space and time

Summary. The third occupation (experiment TDP3) of recording sites above a persistent swarm of microearthquakes near the North Anatolian Fault, with a larger seismic network and over a longer period of time, confirms and refines previous observations with greater resolution. The greater resolution in earthquake locations has revealed marked clustering in time and space. Many, perhaps most, of the earthquakes belong to clusters, where successive earthquakes originate in a very small volume and have similar fault mechanisms. Such studies allow the progression of seismic activity of small earthquakes to be followed in some detail, and may reveal features which are hidden in larger and more complex earthquake sequences.     

Structure and recent evolution of the Hazar Basin: a strike‐slip basin on the East Anatolian Fault,Eastern Turkey

The Hazar Basin is a 25 km‐long, 7 km‐wide and 216 m‐deep depression located on the central section of the East Anatolian Fault zone (eastern Turkey) and predominantly overlain by Lake Hazar. This basin has been described previously as a pull‐apart basin because of its rhombic shape and an apparent fault step‐over between the main fault traces situated at the southwestern and northeastern ends of the lake. However, detailed structural investigation beneath Lake Hazar has not been undertaken previously to verify this interpretation. Geophysical and sedimentological data from Lake Hazar were collected during field campaigns in 2006 and 2007. The analysis of this data reveals that the main strand of the East Anatolian Fault (the Master Fault) is continuous across the Hazar Basin, connecting the two segments previously assumed to be the sidewall faults of a pull‐apart structure. In the northeastern part of the lake, an asymmetrical subsiding sub‐basin, bounded by two major faults, is cross‐cut by the Master Fault, which forms a releasing bend within the lake. Comparison of the structure revealed by this study with analogue models produced for transtensional step‐overs suggests that the Hazar Basin structure represents a highly evolved pull‐apart basin, to the extent that the previous asperity has been bypassed by a linking fault. The absence of a step‐over structure at the Hazar Basin means that no significant segmentation boundary is recognised on the East Anatolian Fault between Palu and Sincik. Therefore, this fault segment is capable of causing larger earthquakes than recognised previously.     

Shear-wave polarizations near the North Anatolian Fault – II. Interpretation in terms of crack-induced anisotropy

Summary. The polarizations of shear waves recorded by networks of digital three-component seismometers immediately above small earthquakes near the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey display shear-wave splitting on almost all shear-wave seismograms recorded within the shear-wave window. This splitting is incompatible with source radiation-patterns propagating through simple isotropic structures but is compatible with effective anisotropy of the internal structure of the rock along the ray paths. This paper interprets the phenomena in terms of widespread crack-induced anisotropy. Distributions of stress-induced cracks model many features of the observations, and synthetic polarization diagrams calculated for propagation through simulated cracked rock are similar to the observed patterns. This evidence for widespread crack-induced anisotropy lends strong support to the hypothesis of extensive-dilatancy anisotropy (EDA) suggested by laboratory experiments in subcritical crack-growth. The crucial evidence confirming some form of EDA would be observations of temporal changes in shear-wave splitting as the stress field alters the crack density and crack geometry. There is some weak evidence for such temporal changes at one site, but further analysis of suitable digital three-component seismometer networks in seismic areas is required to confirm EDA.     

An alternative scenario for earthquake prediction experiments

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Current earthquake prediction experiments investigate behaviour before potentially large earthquakes. There is some evidence that comparatively small typical events in isolated swarms of earthquakes may have precursory behaviour similar to that before much larger earthquakes in more complicated areas of seismicity. Such typical events in isolated swarms frequently recur with similar magnitudes in similar locations with repetition times sometimes as little as a few days. It is argued that monitoring such typical events in isolated swarms could be an effective way to gain experience of precursory activity, and might well be a good guide for investigations of precursors to large earthquakes.     

Palaeomagnetism of dykes and tuffs from the Mesudiye region and rotation of Turkey

Summary. The pole positions obtained from Upper Cretaceous and Eocene tuffs and dykes of the Mesudiye region, which is located between the north of the North Anatolian Fault Zone and eastern Black Sea coast, are at 75.3° N, 275.4° E and 41.7° N, 138.6° E respectively. These results, taken together with the results of previous studies of Turkish rocks, suggest that rotational movements of Turkey have been 45–50° counterclockwise to Europe since the Upper Cretaceous.     

Shear-wave polarizations near the North Anatolian Fault – III. Observations of temporal changes.

Summary. Almost all shear-waves from local earthquakes recorded on closely-spaced three-component seismometer networks deployed near the North Anatolian Fault, Turkey, in two experiments in 1979 and 1980, display shear-wave splitting. The observations are consistent with the presence of EDA (extensive-dilatancy anisotropy), distributions of fluid-filled cracks and microcracks aligned by the regional stress field. Temporal changes in the stress-field, which may occur before an earthquake, may modify the geometry and possibly the orientation of the EDA-microcracks, and lead to corresponding changes in the behaviour of the split shear-waves. A third experiment was undertaken in 1984 to investigate EDA further and to search for possible temporal variations of the polarization of the leading split shear-wave and the time delay between split shear-waves. Observations indicate that the polarization alignments, which are parallel to the strike of the parallel vertical EDA-cracks, are unaltered between 1979 and 1984, implying that the direction of the regional stress field has not changed significantly. Temporal changes in the stress field are more likely to cause changes in the crack density and/or aspect ratio, which would result in a corresponding change in time delay between the split shear-waves. We examine observations of time delay in relation to their propagation path with respect to the crack geometry since it is then possible to separate the effects of changes in crack density and changes in aspect ratio. With this procedure, a small temporal variation of time delays is found between 1979 and 1984, consistent with a decrease in crack density, and consequently a relaxation of stress, in this time period. No evidence was found for any observable variation of time delay over a six month observation span in 1984. We suggest that analysis of repeated shear-wave VSPs offers a technique for monitoring stress changes before earthquakes.     

A new method to compensate for bias in magnetotellurics

Error estimates from statistical regression analysis are often obviously too small, leading to doubts about the given equations, the statistical method itself and finally, with resignation, to the conclusion that mathematical equations and reality never agree. However, for magnetotelluric data we have found an almost perfect fit between observed scattering and predicted confidence limits of regression coefficients after accounting for a systematic error—the bias.
Different methods to compensate for bias in magnetotelluric impedance estimation have been described using additional data from a reference station. However, sufficiently accurate reference data are often not available. A new method has been developed that enables bias compensation without additional data. For the new method we derive a linear relationship between the effect of bias and an expression depending on the data fit. From this we extrapolate the solution for the unbiased impedance. The new method assumes a special model of uncorrelated noise as well as an approximation for the structure of the impedance tensor. From each pair of components of the unrotated impedance tensor corresponding to the same output channel, one of the pair can be compensated if its magnitude is large compared to that of the other.
The method has been successfully applied in many cases. We claim that the solution is closer to the true impedance than any solution based on the selection of events. It gives a measure of the partitioning of noise between the electric and magnetic channels.
We applied the method to measurements from the North Anatolian Fault Zone (Turkey) and from the Merapi volcano (Central Java) in the period range 10–2500 s. Different instrumentation was used for the two sets of measurements, but in both cases we used fluxgate magnetometers to measure the magnetic variations.     

Records of large earthquakes in lake sediments along the North Anatolian Fault,Turkey

In 1999, the large surface-rupturing earthquakes of Izmit and Duzce completed a 60-year cycle that included a westward migration of nine consecutive large earthquake failures (>50 km surface rupture), which started with the 1939 Erzincan earthquake in eastern Turkey. In this study, we focused on seismic cycles and seismic risk predictability along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF). Toward the west end of the NAF (26°E–32°E, i.e. Bolu), large earthquake frequency is measured from either historic earthquake catalogs, or geologic records from isolated outcrops and marine sediment cores from the Marmara Sea. In comparison, the eastern part of the NAF zone (32°E–42°E) is less well documented by palaeo-seismologic archives. Thus, the sediment records of lake basins located on the eastern NAF zone constitute a unique opportunity for testing a new palaeo-seismologic approach. To this end, we used a diverse array of complementary methods involving: (1) a 600-km transect of fault-related lakes, (2) sedimentologic observations on cores from six lakes, and (3) a comparison between records of catastrophic sediment transfers in lakes (i.e. radionuclide chronomarkers and erosion tracers) and historic earthquake reports. Our study indicates that lakes along the NAF are sensitive geologic recorders of large surface-rupturing earthquakes (surface-wave magnitude (M _s) ≥ 6.9); smaller intensities are not recorded. The most responsive lake systems exhibit increases in sediment accumulation by a factor of >40 for a >3-m strike-slip displacement (M _s ≥ 7). However, based on results from the 1939 Erzincan earthquake (M _s = 7.8) chronostratigraphic marker, large surface-rupturing earthquakes are detected only by certain lake records and not by others. Matching multiple lake records along the NAF provides information both on the location of a surface rupture of a paleo-earthquake as well as its magnitude. Finally, the shallow lake basins along the NAF could potentially document cycles of large seismic events for at least the late Holocene.     

Comparison of frequency of occurrence of earthquakes with slip rates from long-term seismicity data: the cases of Gulf of Corinth, Sea of Marmara and Dead Sea Fault Zone

In this article, through the comparison of knowledge relating to historical earthquakes with the understanding of present-day earthquake mechanics and overall GPS slip rates in the eastern Mediterranean region, it has been possible to obtain an idea of how frequently large earthquakes may be expected in some parts of the region. It has also been possible to make an assessment from these early events of slip rates over a long period of time for the Gulf of Corinth in Greece, the Marmara Sea in Turkey and the Dead Sea Fault System, as well as deriving long-term magnitude–frequency relations for these same regions.
It has been demonstrated that slip rates calculated from historical data are in general comparable to those calculated from GPS measurements and field observations, while the size of historical earthquakes and their uncertainty can be quantified. This permits a more reliable estimation of the long-term hazard, the calculation of which is the concern of the engineering seismologist. It has also been shown that in most cases large earthquakes are less frequent when they are estimated from long-term data sets rather than from the instrumental period making the notion of recurrence time and of hazard assessment, questionable.
This study focuses on some of the few areas in the world for which long-term macroseism information exists and which facilitate this kind of analysis.     

Landslide susceptibility mapping for a part of tectonic Kelkit Valley (Eastern Black Sea region of Turkey)

Considering damage to man-made structures by natural hazards in Turkey, landslides are the second most important hazard after earthquakes. For this reason, a large-scale study titled Turkish Landslide Inventory Project, has been carried out since 1998. During this project, some special, susceptibility, hazard and risk assessments have been performed. In this study, a landslide susceptibility map of a part of tectonic Kelkit Valley in the north of central Turkey was produced, employing binary logistic regression analyses. To achieve the most appropriate results some sensitivity analyses were also carried out. For this purpose, four different data sets were constructed considering conditioning factors used and sampling strategies applied for the training data sets in this study. As a consequence of the analyses, the most proper outcomes were obtained by using the data set in which continuous topographical parameters and lithological dummy variables were implemented together and 50% of training data set was taken from seed cells at random. Correct classification percentage and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values for the validation data for that case were estimated as 84.16% and 0.36, respectively. This prediction capability shows that the landslide susceptibility map produced in this research paper can be used for the planning of protective and mitigation measures in the region.     

Results from a Multi-disciplinary Sedimentary Pilot Study of Tectonic Lake Iznik (NW Turkey) – Geochemistry and Paleolimnology of the Recent Past

A limnogeological reconnaissance study was carried out on Lake Iznik, located in the southeast of the Marmara region of Turkey, involving a seismic survey and collection of short sediment cores. This lake is located on the middle branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), a transform plate boundary between the Eurasian and Anatolian Plates. It is, therefore, tectonically active and offers an opportunity to investigate the interplay of sedimentary and seismo-tectonic processes, as well as climate change and human impact in the region. Short cores of the three sub-basins, maximum length of 35.5 cm, recovered non-laminated, blackish clays and silts with varying amounts of biogenic and minerogenic (allochthonous, autochthonous) material, which documented almost the last 80 years of deposition and environmental history. High sedimentation rates in the deeper core sections are accompanied by changes in land use (conversion of woodland to farmland) in the northern areas of Lake Iznik, which caused the deposition of more weathered material (high K/Na ratios) and higher contents of Mn in the lake. A tendency towards eutrophic conditions within the last 20 years is indicated by high nutrient content (N, TOC, P), decreasing C/N-ratios, and characteristic diatom and cladoceran associations. Also increased pollution is revealed by higher Pb, Cu, and Zn contents and increased supply of human and animal faeces (high coprostanol content) during the last two decades. But simultaneous lower sedimentation rates towards the core tops complicate the reconstruction of recent and past eutrophication and pollution states of Lake Iznik. This requires an extension of the pilot study and deeper sediment cores, to recover non-anthropogenic influenced sediment levels.     

Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering

10 M ≥ 6.7 earthquakes ruptured 1000 km of the North Anatolian fault (Turkey) during 1939–1992, providing an unsurpassed opportunity to study how one large shock sets up the next. We use the mapped surface slip and fault geometry to infer the transfer of stress throughout the sequence. Calculations of the change in Coulomb failure stress reveal that nine out of 10 ruptures were brought closer to failure by the preceding shocks, typically by 1–10 bar, equivalent to 3–30 years of secular stressing. We translate the calculated stress changes into earthquake probability gains using an earthquake-nucleation constitutive relation, which includes both permanent and transient effects of the sudden stress changes. The transient effects of the stress changes dominate during the mean 10 yr period between triggering and subsequent rupturing shocks in the Anatolia sequence. The stress changes result in an average three-fold gain in the net earthquake probability during the decade after each event. Stress is calculated to be high today at several isolated sites along the fault. During the next 30 years, we estimate a 15 per cent probability of a M ≥ 6.7 earthquake east of the major eastern centre of Ercinzan, and a 12 per cent probability for a large event south of the major western port city of Izmit. Such stress-based probability calculations may thus be useful to assess and update earthquake hazards elsewhere.     

Shear-wave polarizations near the North Anatolian Fault – I. Evidence for anisotropy-induced shear-wave splitting

Summary. The Turkish Dilatancy Projects (TDP1 in 1979 and TDP2 in 1980) recorded small earthquakes near the North Anatolian Fault with closely-spaced networks of three-component seismometers in order to investigate the possibility of diagnosing dilatancy from its effects of shear-wave propagation. This paper examines the polarizations of shear wavetrains recorded in the shear-wave window immediately above the earthquake foci. Abrupt changes in the orientation and/or ellipticity of the shear-wave polarizations are almost always observed during the first few cycles following the initial shear-wave arrival on each seismogram. The horizontal projections of the polarizations of the first shear-wave arrivals at any given station show nearly parallel alignments with approximately the same orientations at each of the recording sites (with one exception). It is difficult to explain this uniform alignment over a wide area in terms of scattering at the irregular surface topography or by earthquake focal mechanisms. We demonstrate that the shear-wave splitting is likely to be the result of anisotropy in the region above the earthquake foci, which could produce polarizations displaying the observed alignments. The temporal change of the azimuth of alignment, observed at one locality between 1979 and 1980, may be due to the release of a local stress anomaly by a very near earthquake.     

Statistical analysis of strong-motion accelerograms and its application to earthquake early-warning systems

In view of increasing damage due to earthquakes, and the current problems of earthquake prediction, real-time warning of strong ground motion is attracting more interest. In principle, it allows short-term warning of earthquakes while they are occurring. With warning times of up to tens of seconds it is possible to send alerts to potential areas of strong shaking before the arrival of the seismic waves and to mitigate the damage, but only if the seismic source parameters are determined rapidly. The major problem of an early-warning system is the real-time estimation of the earthquake's size.
We investigated digitized strong-motion accelerograms from 244 earthquakes that occurred in North and Central America between 1940 and 1986 to find out whether their initial portions reflected the size of the ongoing earthquake. Applying conventional methods of time-series analyses we calculate appropriate signal parameters and describe their uncertainties in relation to the magnitude and epicentral distance. The study reveals that the magnitude of an earthquake can be predicted from the first second of a single accelerogram within ±1.36 magnitude units. The uncertainty can be reduced to about ±0.5 magnitude units if a larger number (≥8) of accelerograms are available, which requires a dense network of seismic stations in areas of high seismic risk.     

A stochastic modelling of earthquake frequencies

Summary. The frequency of earthquake occurrence in a given region can be formulated as

where n ( t ) is the number of earthquakes per unit time, and r, k and α are constants. Empirically determined values of α range from 0.67 to 1.0. This is a generalization of the modified Omori formula for aftershocks, the latter being an approximation of the former for n > k. This formula adequately describes the initial increasing and later decreasing activity of earthquakes during the Matsushiro and Wakayama swarms as well as aftershocks of large earthquakes.
When a random external force is added to this system as a driving mechanism, the equation above becomes

where v = l n ( n/k ) and R ( t ) is the random Gaussian noise. Repetitive seismic patterns with bursts, which are commonly observed in real earthquake sequences, are predicted from this formulation under stationary conditions. These formulations appear to be quite promising in helping to understand macroscopic features of the microearthquake activity.     

Lithospheric structure of the continent–continent collision zone: eastern Turkey

We infer the lithospheric structure in eastern Turkey using teleseismic and regional events recorded by 29 broad-band stations from the Eastern Turkey Seismic Experiment (ETSE). We combine the surface wave group velocities (Rayleigh and Love) with telesesimic receiver functions to jointly invert for the S -wave velocity structure, Moho depth and mantle-lid (lithospheric mantle) thickness. We also estimated the transverse anisotropy due to Love and Rayleigh velocity discrepancies. We found anomalously low shear wave velocities underneath the Anatolian Plateau. Average crustal thickness is 36 km in the Arabian Plate, 44 km in Anatolian Block and 48 km in the Anatolian Plateau. We observe very low shear wave velocities at the crustal portion (30–38 km) of the northeastern part of the Anatolian Plateau. The lithospheric mantle thickness is either not thick enough to resolve it or it is completely removed underneath the Anatolian Plateau. The shear velocities and anisotropy down to 100 km depth suggest that the average lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary in the Arabian Plate is about 90 and 70 km in Anatolian block. Adding the surface waves to the receiver functions is necessary to constrain the trade-off between velocity and the thickness. We find slower velocities than with the receiver function data alone. The study reveals three different lithospheric structures in eastern Turkey: the Anatolian plateau (east of Karliova Triple Junction), the Anatolian block and the northernmost portion of the Arabian plate. The boundary of lithospheric structure differences coincides with the major tectonic boundaries.