Large ground surface temperature changes of the last three centuries inferred from borehole temperatures in the Southern Canadian Prairies, Saskatchewan

New temperature logs in wells located in the grassland ecozone in the Southern Canadian Prairies in Saskatchewan, where surface disturbance is considered minor, show a large curvature in the upper 100 m. The character of this curvature is consistent with ground surface temperature (GST) warming in the 20th century. Repetition of precise temperature logs in southern Saskatchewan (years 1986 and 1997) shows the conductive nature of warming of the subsurface sediments. The magnitude of surface temperature change during that time (11 years) is high (0.3–0.4°C). To assess the conductive nature of temperature variations at the grassland surface interface, several precise air and soil temperature time series in the southern Canadian Prairies (1965–1995) were analyzed. The combined anomalies correlated at 0.85. Application of the functional space inversion (FSI) technique with the borehole temperature logs and site-specific lithology indicates a warming to date of approximately 2.5°C since a minimum in the late 18th century to mid 19th century. This warming represents an approximate increase from 4°C around 1850 to 6.5°C today. The significance of this record is that it suggests almost half of the warming occurred prior to 1900, before dramatic build up of atmospheric green house gases. This result correlates well with the proxy record of climatic change further to the north, beyond the Arctic Circle [Overpeck, J., Hughen, K., Hardy, D., Bradley, R., Case, R., Douglas, M., Finney, B., Gajewski, K., Jacoby, G., Jennings, A., Lamourex, S., Lasca, A., MacDonald, G., Moore, J., Retelle, M., Smith, S., Wolfe, A., Zielinski, G., 1997. Arctic environmental change of the last four centuries, Science 278, 1251–1256.].     

Combining borehole temperature and meteorologic data to constrain past climate change

Geothermal observations from a suite of boreholes in western Utah, USA, combined with meteorologic data at nearby weather stations are used to test the hypothesis that temperatures in the earths subsurface contain an accurate record of recent climate change. The change in air temperature over the last hundred years successfully predicts detailed subsurface temperature profiles to better than ±0.05°C, indicating that ground temperatures tract air temperatures over long periods and that climate change signals are conducted into, and recorded in, the solid earth by the process of heat conduction. We combine borehole temperature data with meteorologic data from the nearest weather station to determine the time averaged difference between surface ground temperature and surface air temperature for borehole-weather station pairs and to infer the long term mean air temperature prior to the observational record. For our western Utah sites the preobservational mean temperature is close to the average surface air temperature for this century suggesting that up to 0.5°C of warming deduced from the last 100 years of weather station data may be attributed to recovery from a cool period at the turn of the century.     

A method for using a fully coupled climate system model to generate detailed surface boundary conditions for paleoclimate modeling investigations: an early Paleogene example

Although fully coupled models of the earth system are now common, simpler model architectures maintain significant utility, and scientific investigations aimed at understanding paleoclimates are frequently conducted with fixed sea surface temperature (SST) or slab ocean modeling experiments. One of the challenges facing the paleoclimate community is that the proxy data used to generate SST boundary conditions exist at a finer resolution and with very limited spatial coverage when compared to a climate model. In addition, SST proxy estimates often represent a single season or annual average conditions. This mismatch in coverage and resolution frequently results in paleoclimate modelers using SST distributions that have very limited spatial and temporal variability. In many regions, a spatially and temporally detailed SST distribution may be necessary for the accurate reproduction of paleoclimatic conditions. Here we borrow from the concept of flux correction and, using available proxy estimates of SST as our guide, force a fully coupled earth system model to produce a spatially and temporally detailed SST distribution for the paleoclimate of the early Paleogene (45–65 Ma). The SST values we produce represent a conservative estimate of early Paleogene high latitude SSTs and match tropical temperatures for this time period well. In addition to matching proxy estimates, our model-derived SST distribution has spatial and temporal variability that meshes well with global climate model resolution. This detailed SST distribution is now available to us as we investigate the causes and sensitivities of early Paleogene climate in fixed SST and slab ocean modeling experiments. The method we used to generate this spatially and temporally detailed SST distribution may prove useful for those investigating other time periods in the past, or the future, for which detailed model boundary conditions are unavailable.     

Evidence of climatic warming in the southern Urals region derived from borehole temperatures and meteorological data

Thirty borehole temperature–depth profiles in the central and southern Urals, Russia were scrutinized for evidence of ground surface temperature histories. We explored two inversion schemes: a simple ramp inversion in which solutions are parameterized in terms of an onset time and magnitude of change and a more sophisticated functional space inverse algorithm in which the functional form of the solution is left unspecified. To enhance and potentially identify latitudinal differences in the ground surface temperature signal, we subdivided the data into three groups based on geographic proximity and simultaneously inverted the borehole temperature–depth logs. The simultaneous inversions highlighted 13 temperature–depth logs that could not both fit a common ground surface temperature history and a priori models within reasonable bounds. Our results confirm that this is an effective way to reduce site-specific noise from an ensemble of boreholes. Each inversion scheme gives comparable results indicating locally variable warming on the order of 1°C starting between 1800 and 1900 AD. Similarly surface air temperature records from 12 nearby meteorological stations exhibit locally variable warming also on the order of 1°C of warming during the 20th century. To explore the degree to which borehole temperatures and surface air temperature (SAT) time series are responding to the same signal, we average the SAT data into the same three groups and used these averages as a forcing function at the Earth's surface to generate synthetic transient temperature profiles. Root mean square (RMS) misfits between these synthetic temperature profiles and averaged temperature–depth profiles are low, suggesting that first-order curvature in borehole temperatures and variations in SAT records are correlated.     

Extending the EBM: the effect of deep ocean temperature on climate with applications to the cretaceous

Three types of models are frequently applied to problems of present or past climates: (1) the energy balance model (EBM), which can be solved for the mean thermal state of the climate system based only on thermodynamical considerations, (2) the statistical dynamical model (SDM), which includes momentum considerations from which one can solve for climate statistics on a monthly or seasonal time scale including mean poloidal motions and the hydrologic cycle, and (3) the general circulation model (GCM), which can be solved for the evolving daily weather patterns that are then post-processed to yield all the climate statistics in much the same manner as synoptic data are processed. One major drawback of nearly all these models is that they typically do not consider the subsurface vertical heat fluxes (e.g., the effect of deep ocean temperatures and circulation). We present results froman SDM developed in the late 1960's that includes the parameterized effects of subsurface heat fluxes, and then use these results to demonstrate the importance that deep ocean temperatures can have in determining the climatic state. In this SDM, the ratio of the surface short wave absorption to the surface conductive capacity emerges as a quantity that competes with the subsurface (e.g., deep ocean) temperature in determining surface temperatures. For land, the conductive capacity is small and short wave absorption plays an important role; however, for the ocean the conductive capacity is large and the subsurface (deep ocean) temperature is the dominant influence on the surface temperature for the time scale over which the model is valid. This SDM also includes several of the most important features absent in an EBM, namely, an explicit dependence on the intrinsic physical nature of the earth's surface, the mean poloidal motions in the atmosphere that lead to the climate zonation, and a representation of the hydrologic cycle.When deep ocean temperatures in the model are increased to levels suggested by geologic data for the Cretaceous, surface temperatures at mid to high latitudes become much warmer and the circulation of the atmosphere becomes much subdued, especially as indicated by eddy statistics. These results hold for both present-day and Cretaceous land-ocean distributions, indicating that deep ocean temperature, not geography, is the key model boundary condition. The results also agree with interpretations of geologic data, but disagree in part with earlier interpretations of GCM studies of the Cretaceous. Removal of sea ice (with resultant change from a land-like to an ocean surface) accounts for much of the high latitude warming.     

Long wavelength ground surface temperature history from continuous temperature logs in the Transylvanian Basin

Continuous temperature logs to depths between 750 and 1400 m in the Transylvanian Basin, Romania, in many cases show temperature gradient variations with depth which cannot be explained by depth variations in thermal conductivity, topography and ground water flow. The only possible responsible agent seems to be past surface temperature variations. The temperature logs from nine boreholes have been interpreted individually and jointly by least squares inverse modelling with the surface temperature history and background heat flux as unknown parameters. All the temperature profiles are consistent with a temperature rise at the end of the last glaciation. The effects of borehole depth, of a wrong choice of thermal conductivity, and the level of uncorrelated random noise were examined using synthetic examples.     

Climatic changes in central and eastern Canada inferred from deep borehole temperature data

We analyzed data from 23 boreholes at 19 sites in central and eastern Canada, for the purpose of estimating ground surface temperature (GST) histories. These boreholes were logged down to at least 550 m depth with thermistor probes. Thermal conductivity measurements had been previously made at small depth intervals for the entire depth ranges of most of the boreholes. The temperature profiles of these boreholes do not indicate water disturbance. We estimated terrain effects for each borehole using a time dependent solid-angle method. The thermal perturbations caused by lakes or deforestation near the borehole sites are insignificant in most cases. However, four of the holes were found to be severely influenced by terrain effects. GSTs estimated from the borehole data less influenced by the terraineffects form two groups. The first group, which are generally from data of better quality, show a cold period near the end of the last century before the recent warming trend; the second show it 80–100 years earlier. We consider the former typical of the climate of the Boreal climatic region of Canada. The difference between the two groups may reflect the spacial variability of the climate. Four GST estimates do not belong to either type, and the reasons are discussed.     

Numerical modelling of permafrost in bedrock in northern Fennoscandia during the Holocene

The occurrence of permafrost in bedrock in northern Fennoscandia and its dependence on past and presently ongoing climatic variations was investigated with one- (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) numerical models by solving the transient heat conduction equation with latent heat effects included. The study area is characterized by discontinuous permafrost occurrences such as palsa mires and local mountain permafrost. The ground temperature changes during the Holocene were constructed using climatic proxy data. This variation was used as a forcing function at the ground surface in the calculations. Several versions of the present ground temperature were applied, resulting in different subsurface freezing–thawing conditions in the past depending on the assumed porosity and geothermal conditions.Our results suggest that in high altitude areas with a cold climate (present mean annual ground temperature between 0°C and −3°C), there may have been considerable variations in permafrost thickness (ranging from 0 to 150 m), as well as periods of no permafrost at all. The higher is the porosity of bedrock filled with ice, the stronger is the retarding effect of permafrost against climatic variations.Two-dimensional models including topographic effects with altitude-dependent ground temperatures and slope orientation and inclination dependent solar radiation were applied to a case of mountain permafrost in Ylläs, western Finnish Lapland, where bedrock permafrost is known to occur in boreholes to a depth of about 60 m. Modelling suggests complicated changes in permafrost thickness with time as well as contrasting situations on southern and northern slopes of the mountain.Extrapolating the climatic warming of the last 200 years to the end of the next century when the anticipated increase in the annual average air temperature is expected to be about 2 K indicates that the permafrost occurrences in bedrock in northern Fennoscandia would be thawing rapidly in low-porosity formations. However, already a porosity of 5% filled with ice would retard the thawing considerably.     

Climate change of the last millennium inferred from borehole temperatures: regional patterns of climatic changes in the Czech Republic — Part III

Accurate temperature–depth profiles may help to assess the temperature variations associated with the climate changes in the past. Ninety-eight ground surface temperature histories inverted from the temperature–depth borehole logs drilled on the territory of the Czech Republic [Bodri, L., ermák, V., 1995. Climate changes of the last millennium inferred from borehole temperatures: results from the Czech Republic — Part I. Global Planet. Change 11, pp. 111–125; Bodri, L., ermák, V., 1997. Climate changes of the last two millennia inferred from borehole temperatures: results from the Czech Republic — Part II. Global Planet. Change 14, pp. 163–173.] are used to reconstruct the regional patterns of the respective climate change. The climate was mapped for the following periods: 1100–1300 A.D. (Little Climatic Optimum), 1400–1500 A.D., 1600–1700 A.D. (main phase of the Little Ice Age), and for the most recent climate trend after year 1960. Comparison of the obtained maps with the meteorological observations and proxy climatic reconstructions confirmed good applicability of the “geothermal” paleoclimatic reconstructions for the regional studies.     

Modeling diffusion advection in the mass transfer of water vapor through martian regolith

Diffusion advection is an effect in diffusive multicomponent mass transfer that occurs when the flux vectors of the individual components do not add up to zero. This can be a significant effect for the mass transfer of water vapor from subsurface ice or liquid reservoirs through porous regolith at martian temperatures and pressures. Ignoring diffusion advection and using Fick's law alone to calculate the flux under these conditions will result in an erroneously small value while using a measured flux to calculate a diffusivity will result in an erroneously high value. The inaccuracy in both cases increases with temperature. The literature contains several examples of erroneous treatment of this effect. The correct approach is well-known from other applications of mass transfer and takes diffusion advection into account in the appropriate amount regardless of the temperature and pressure and reduces to the simple Fick's law when conditions warrant. In this way, there is no need to decide under what conditions diffusion advection is or is not important. It can be used in the transition region to pure Knudsen diffusion in a fashion similar to that used with the more limited Fickian approach.     

Lunar heat flow and regolith structure inferred from interferometric observations at a wavelength of 49.3 cm

We discuss observations of the Moon at a wavelength of 49.3 cm made with the Owens Valley Radio Observatory Interferometer. These observations have been fit to models in order to estimate the lunar dielectric constant, the equatorial subsurface temperature, the latitude dependence of the subsurface temperature, and the subsurface temperature gradient. The models are most consistent with a dielectric constant of 2.52 ± 0.01 (formal errors), an equatorial subsurface temperature of 249_?5⁺⁸K, and a change in the subsurface temperature with latitude (ψ), which is proportional to cos^0.38ψ. Since the temperature of the Moon has been measured by the Apollo Lunar Heat Flow Experiment, we have been able to use our determination of the equatorial temperature to estimate the error in the flux density calibration scale at 49.3cm (608 MHz). This results in a correction factor of 1.03 ± 0.04, which must be applied to the flux density scale. This factor is much different from 1.21 ± 0.09 estimated by Muhleman et al. (1973) from the brightness temperature of Venus and apparently indicates that the observed decrease in the brightness temperature of Venus at long wavelengths is a real effect.The estimates of the temperature gradient, which are based on the measurement of limb darkening, are small and negative (temperature decreases with depth) and may be insignificantly different from zero since they are only as large as their formal errors. We estimate that a temperature gradient in excess of 0.6K/m at 10m depth would have been observed. Thus, a temperature gradient like that measured in situ at the Apollo 15 and 17 landing sites in the upper 2m of the regolith is not typical of the entire lunar frontside at the 10m depths where the 49.3 cm wavelength emission originates. This result may indicate that the mean lunar heat flow is lower than that measured at the Apollo landing sites, that the thermal conductivity is greater at 10m depth than it is at 2m depth, or that the radio opacity is greater at 10m depth than at 2m depth. The negative estimates of the temperature gradient indicate that the Moon appeared limb bright and might be explained by scattering of the emission from boulders or an interface with solid rock. The presence of solid rock at 10m depths will probably cause heat flows like those measured by Apollo to be unobservable by our interferometric method at long wavelengths, since it will cause both the thermal conductivity and radio opacity of the regolith to increase. Thus, our data may be most consistent with a change in the physical properties of the regolith to those of solid rock or a mixture of rock and soil at depths of 7 to 16m. Our results show that future radio measurements for heat flow determinations must utilize wavelengths considerably shorter than 50 cm (25 cm or less) to avoid the rock regions below the regolith.     

Subsurface temperature—depth profiles, anomalies due to climatic ground surface temperature changes or groundwater flow effects

Climatic temperature changes at the ground surface propagate downward to the subsurface creating transient disturbances to the temperature—depth (T(z)) profile. Due to the poor thermal diffusivity of rocks the disturbances are preserved long times in the bedrock, and in a conductive regime it is possible to reveal the ground surface temperature (GST) history from borehole temperature data with inversion techniques. Geothermal temperature measurements thus provide a source of palaeoclimatic information which so far has not been utilized extensively. Inversion of GST history is, however, not straightforward and any disturbing effects should be excluded before the data can be utilized in inversion. Groundwater flow is of special importance in this respect because it is a common phenomenon in bedrock and convection often produces temperature—depth profiles resembling those affected by palaeoclimatic GST changes. In interpreting temperature—depth (T(z)) logs it is therefore not always clear whether the recorded vertical gradient variations should be attributed to the effects of palaeoclimatic ground surface temperature (GST) changes or to groundwater circulation. Using several synthetic T(z) profiles and applying general least squares inversion techniques we simulate a situation of “misinterpreting” the curvature of the T(z) profile in terms of palaeoclimatic GST changes, although it is actually produced by convective heat transfer due to groundwater flow. For comparison the opposite case is also studied, namely, genuine palaeoclimatic effects are misinterpreted as being due to disturbances caused by groundwater flow. A homogeneous half-space model is used to model T(z) profiles disturbed conductively by GST changes during the time interval 10–10000 yr B.P. and a one-dimensional porous layer model is applied for convective heat transfer calculations. The results indicate that a given T(z) profile can be attributed to either of these effects with reasonable parameter values. In addition to the synthetic T(z) profiles, a case history from a 958 m deep drill hole at Lavia, southwestern Finland, is presented. Special care is needed in analyzing T(z) data. A knowledge of geothermal data, such as temperature, thermal conductivity and diffusivity is not necessarily adequate for determining which of the phenomena (or whether a combination of them) provides the most probable interpretation of a T(z) profile. Additional information on the hydrogeological properties of the drilled strata is essential.     

Influence of the persistence of circulation patterns on warm and cold temperature anomalies in Europe: Analysis over the 20th century

Recent studies have pointed out that persistence of the atmospheric circulation over Europe, as measured by residence times of circulation types, has increased since the mid-1980s in all seasons and for most groups of the types. The greater persistence may affect surface climatic anomalies, particularly the frequency and severity of heat and cold waves associated with severe impacts on society and environment. In this paper, relationships between the persistence of circulation types over Europe and extreme surface air temperature anomalies are studied over the 20th century using the Hess–Brezowsky catalogue of large-scale circulation patterns and long-term temperature series at stations covering most of the European continent. Types significantly conducive to heat and cold waves are identified, and temperature anomalies are linked to their persistence. It is shown that more persistent circulation enhances the severity of temperature extremes over the whole area, which is slightly more important for warm than cold temperature anomalies. The changes in both frequencies and residence times of circulation patterns have been supporting sharply rising trends in warm temperature extremes observed over Europe in recent decades, and the circulation changes may also contributed to the fact that trends in cold temperature extremes have been less pronounced or absent in the same period. The findings also emphasize the need for taking into account the persistence of circulation types together with their frequencies when evaluating links between the atmospheric circulation and the surface climate. In global warming context, the effects of the future climate change on the occurrence and severity of temperature extremes may be exacerbated by a more persistent circulation related to a decreased cyclone activity over mid-latitudes and a northward shift of storm tracks.     

Climate sensitivity to changes in land surface characteristics

Using a recently developed global vegetation distribution, topography, and shorelines for the Early Eocene in conjunction with the Genesis version 2.0 climate model, we investigate the influences that these new boundary conditions have on global climate. Global mean climate changes little in response to the subtle changes we made; differences in mean annual and seasonal surface temperatures over northern and southern hemispheric land, respectively, are on the order of 0.5°C. In contrast, and perhaps more importantly, continental scale climate exhibits significant responses. Increased peak elevations and topographic detail result in larger amplitude planetary 4 mm/day and decreases by 7–9 mm/day in the proto Himalayan region. Surface temperatures change by up to 18°C as a direct result of elevation modifications. Increased leaf area index (LAI), as a result of altered vegetation distributions, reduces temperatures by up to 6°C. Decreasing the size of the Mississippi embayment decreases inland precipitation by 1–2 mm/day. These climate responses to increased accuracy in boundary conditions indicate that “improved” boundary conditions may play an important role in producing modeled paleoclimates that approach the proxy data more closely.     

Recent warming in southeastern Zaire (Central Africa) inferred from disturbed geothermal gradients

Several temperature-depth profiles measured in Kasai and in Shaba provinces of Zaire using mining exploration boreholes exhibit a significant negative temperature gradient near the surface. This anomalous curvature which extends to 100–200 m depth could reflect the effect of variations in surface conditions. Applying the theory of heat conduction in a semi-infinite homogeneous medium, these profiles indicate a surface warming by 3–4°C. This warming is related to the effect of the environmental changes associated with the mining exploitation and the urbanization during the last 40–90 years.     

Computation of the space and time evolution of equilibrium-line altitudes on Andean glaciers (10°N–55°S)

A previous study of Fox [Fox, A.N. 1993. Snowline altitude and climate at present and during the Last Pleistocene Glacial Maximum in the Central Andes (5°–28°S). Ph.D. Thesis. Cornell University.] showed that for a fixed 0 °C isotherm altitude, the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) of the Peruvian and Bolivian glaciers from 5 to 20°S can be expressed based on a log–normal expression of local mid-annual rainfall amount (P). In order to extrapolate the function to the whole Andes (10°N to 55°S) a local 0 °C isotherm altitude is introduced. Two applications of this generalised function are presented. One concerns the space evolution of mean inter-annual ELA for three decades (1961–1990) over the whole South American continent. A high-resolution data set (grid data: 10′ for latitude/longitude) of mean monthly air surface temperature and precipitation is used. Mean annual values over the 1961–1990 period were calculated. On each grid element, the mean annual 0 °C isotherm altitude is determined from an altitudinal temperature gradient and mean annual temperature (T) at ground level. The 0 °C isotherm altitude is then associated with the annual precipitation amount to compute the ELA. Using computed ELA and the digital terrain elevation model GTOPO30, we determine the extent of the glacierised area in Andean regions under modern climatic conditions. The other application concerns the ELA time evolution on Zongo Glacier (Bolivia), where inter-annual ELA variations are computed from 1995 to 1999. For both applications, the computed values of ELA are in good agreement with those derived from glacier mass balance measurements.     

Pre-industrial-potential and Last Glacial Maximum global vegetation simulated with a coupled climate-biosphere model: diagnosis of bioclimatic relationships

The global climate–vegetation model HadSM3_TRIFFID has been used to estimate the equilibrium states of climate and vegetation with pre-industrial and last glacial boundary conditions. The present study focuses on the evaluation of the terrestrial biosphere component (TRIFFID) and its response to changes in climate and CO₂ concentration. We also show how, by means of a diagnosis of the distribution of plant functional types according to climate parameters (soil temperature, winter temperature, growing-degree days, precipitation), it is possible to get better insights into the strengths and weaknesses of the biosphere model by reference to field knowledge of ecosystems.The model exhibits profound changes between the vegetation distribution at the Last Glacial Maximum and today that are generally consistent with palaeoclimate data, such as the disappearance of the Siberian boreal forest (taiga), an increase in shrub cover in Europe and an increase of the subtropical desert area. The effective equatorial and sub-tropical tree area is reduced by 18%. There is also an increase in cover of wooded species in North-Western Africa and in Mexico. The analysis of bioclimatic relationships turns out to be an efficient method to infer the contributions of different climatic factors to vegetation changes, both at high latitudes, where the position of the boreal treeline appears in this model to be more directly constrained by the water stress than by summer temperature, and in semi-humid areas where the contributions of temperature and precipitation changes may partly compensate each other. Our study also confirms the major contribution of the decrease in CO₂ to environmental changes and carbon storage through its selective impact on gross primary productivity of C3 and C4 plants and a reduction by 25% of water-use efficiency. Specifically, the reduction in CO₂ concentration increases the amount of precipitation necessary to sustain at least 20% of grass fraction by 50 mm/year; the corresponding threshold for trees is increased by about 150 mm/year. As a consequence, a reduction in CO₂ concentration considerably widens the climatic range where grasses and shrubs dominate.     

High resolution temperature measurements in the borehole Yaxcopoil‐1, Mexico

Abstract— Within the frame of the International Continental Deep Drilling Program (ICDP) and as a part of the Chicxulub Scientific Drilling Project (CSDP), high resolution temperature measurements were performed in the borehole Yaxcopoil‐1 (Yax‐1). The temperature was logged to the depth of 858 m seven times between March 6–19, 2002, starting 10 days after the hole was shut in and mud circulation ceased. Successive logs revealed only small temperature variations in time and space, indicating a fast temperature recovery to almost undisturbed conditions prior to the first log. From these logs, a mean temperature gradient of ～37 mK/m was determined below the uppermost 250 m. Another temperature log was recorded on May 24, 2003 (15 months after the shut in) to a depth of 895 m. The obtained temperature profile is very similar to the 2002 profile, with an insignificantly higher mean gradient below 250 m that may indicate a long‐term return to the pre‐drilling temperature. The temperature in the uppermost part of the hole bears signs of considerable influence of a convective contribution to the vertical thermal heat transfer. The depth extent of the convection seems to have deepened from 150 m in March 2002 to 230 m in May 2003. Based on the observed temperature gradient and the rock types encountered in the borehole above 670 m, the conducted heat flow is expected to be in the range 65–80 mW/m².     

Geothermal conditions for gas hydrate stability in the Beaufort-Mackenzie area: the global change aspect

Gases locked in hydrates or trapped beneath a gas hydrate cap within the earth are potential contributors to the greenhouse effect, and therefore both thermal conditions of and occurrences of the methane hydrates should be considered in the study of past climate change and of future global warming. The decomposition of methane hydrates triggered by an increase in near surface temperatures and the subsequent upward migration of released gases is occurring at present in the Beauffort-Mackenzie area of northern Canada. In addition to surface warming, the warming effect of the upward flow of the deep fluids, recharged in high elevation areas bordering the Alaska and Yukon coastal plain, may also be a factor in the release of methane directly from deeper buried hydrates in the fluid discharge zones. Any assessment of the total methane contribution to the atmosphere and the rate of the release requires a knowledge of the distribution, spatially and with depth, the temperature and composition of the gas hydrates. In this study the zones of methane hydrate stability are predicted by a thermal method and compared with the distribution of hydrates detected on well logs. An extensive hydrate prone layer extending to as deep as 1400±200 m over an area of 50,000 km² is predicted by the thermal data and hydrate stability field. Comparison of the predicted maximum depths of methane hydrate stability with the maximum depths of hydrate occurrences in 52 wells shows general agreement in the areas of thick offshore and onshore permafrost. Differences in several areas of up to 400 m between the thermally predicted hydrate base and the deepest detected hydrates (detected hydrates are deeper than the predicted ones) can be explained by changes in gas composition. Otherwise low near-surface thermal gradients of approximately 15 mK/m to 20 mK/m (in comparison with observed deep thermal gradients of 25–40 mK/m) would be needed to explain the existence of deep hydrates in the area of the southern Mackenzie Delta trough and offshore north of 71° N latitude. Unfortunately there is no reliable industrial temperature observation from wells to support the latter. Such regional studies of the distribution of gas hydrates, including the stability of those deposits, form a crucial component of an assessment of the influence of gas hydrate formation and decomposition on the proportion of methane present in the earth's atmosphere. Current estimates suggest that between 10.E18 and 10.E21 tonnes of methane may be presently locked in gas hydrate deposits. To fully assess the total amount and the potential contribution to global warming, similar regional assessments are needed for each of the major areas of occurrence, especially in the circumpolar regions which are subject to the greatest increase in temperature conditions.     

Elevation dependency of recent and future minimum surface air temperature trends in the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings

Elevation dependency of climate change signals has been found over major mountain ranges such as the European Alps and the Rockies, as well as over the Tibetan Plateau. In this study we examined the temporal trends in monthly mean minimum temperatures from 116 weather stations in the eastern Tibetan Plateau and its vicinity during 1961–2006. We also analyzed projected climate changes in the entire Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings from two sets of modeling experiments under future global warming conditions. These analyses included the output of the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) with approximately 150 km horizontal resolution for the scenario of annual 1% increase in atmospheric CO₂ for future 100 years and physically-based downscaling results from the NCAR CAM3/CLM3 model at 10' × 10' resolution during three 20-year mean periods (1980–1999, 2030–2049 and 2080–2099) for the IPCC mid-range emission (A1B) scenario. We divided the 116 weather stations and the regional model grids into elevation zones of 500 m interval to examine the relationship of climatic warming and elevation. With these corroborating datasets, we were able to confirm the elevation dependency in monthly mean minimum temperature in and around the Tibetan Plateau. The warming is more prominent at higher elevations than at lower elevations, especially during winter and spring seasons, and such a tendency may continue in future climate change scenarios. The elevation dependency is most likely caused by the combined effects of cloud-radiation and snow-albedo feedbacks among various influencing factors.