The shock event of October 6, 1597 is a strong deep earthquake

A special earth shock event was recorded at 22 counties of the 7 provinces of eastern China on October 6, 1597, and 2 volcanic eruptions and seismic activities were recorded in Sanshui county, Xianjingbeidao, Korea at that day and the 3rd day. Because of the large range of this shock, low intensity, slow attenuation and no extreme-earthquake area, its epicenter and focus could not be determined onthe scientific-technological conditions at that time. In the Seismological Catalogue of China (GU, 1983) published in 1983, its epicenter was determined to be in the Bo Sea (38.5°N, 120.0°E), its magnitude was 7; and it was changed into 7.5 in the later Seismological Catalogue of Beijing; someone estimated it over 7(HUAN, 1989); someone thought that, it was a very large earthquake, might be a extraordinarily serious large one according to the scale of sensational range, reaching 8 (SHI, et al, 1985). The authors think that, the disputes on its magnitude and epicenter, and on deep or shallow earthquake show the complicities of this problem; further discussions about it will be helpful to the study on the seismic activity of the northern China area.     

The Safe Yield and Climatic Variability: Implications for Groundwater Management

Methods for calculating the safe yield are evaluated in this paper using a high‐quality and long historical data set of groundwater recharge, discharge, extraction, and precipitation in a karst aquifer. Consideration is given to the role that climatic variability has on the determination of a climatically representative period with which to evaluate the safe yield. The methods employed to estimate the safe yield are consistent with its definition as a long‐term average extraction rate that avoids adverse impacts on groundwater. The safe yield is a useful baseline for groundwater planning; yet, it is herein shown that it is not an operational rule that works well under all climatic conditions. This paper shows that due to the nature of dynamic groundwater processes it may be most appropriate to use an adaptive groundwater management strategy that links groundwater extraction rates to groundwater discharge rates, thus achieving a safe yield that represents an estimated long‐term sustainable yield. An example of the calculation of the safe yield of the Edwards Aquifer (Texas) demonstrates that it is about one‐half of the average annual recharge.     

Ellipsoidal density models and hydrostatic equilibrium: Interim report

From the point of view of consistency with the Geodetic Reference System 1967, it would be desirable that the boundary surface of a Standard Earth Model is an exact equipotential ellipsoid. This is incompatible with the requirement that it be a figure of hydrostatic equilibrium. The report investigates the relation between equipotential ellipsoids and equilibrium figures. The principal conclusion is that it is possible to find an ellipsoidal model that has the same distribution of density and flattening (more precisely, of the parameter f′ as defined in the paper) as a hydrostatic model, the deviations being only of second order in the flattening.     

含粗糙面断层的远场体波辐射

本文用位错模式研究了含粗糙面断层的远场地震体波辐射。假设粗糙面大小和整个错动面大小的比值为C,并假设破裂从中心开始,计算了不同C值对远场地震波谱的影响。结果表明,与均匀圆盘状断层的远场振幅谱相比,不同之处是,由于粗糙面的存在,当裂纹前端传播至粗糙面的边缘处时,引起波谱开始部分的分裂,表现在谱的第一个波谷处。粗糙面的大小对振幅谱的影响不显著。另外,比较P波和S波振幅谱,发现S波波谱的拐角频率比P波的低。     

What is suspended sediment?

Suspended sediment is conventionally regarded as that sediment transported by a fluid that it is fine enough for turbulent eddies to outweigh settling of the particles through the fluid. Early work in the fluvial field attributed suspension to turbulence, and led to the notion of a critical threshold for maintaining sediment in suspension. However, research on both turbulence structures and the interactions between suspended sediment and bedforms in rivers has shown a more complex story and, although there appear to have been no studies of the impact of bedforms on aeolian suspended sediment concentrations, turbulent flow structures and transport rates of saltating particles have been shown to be affected. This research indicates that suspended sediment neither travels with the same velocity as the flow in which it is suspended, nor is it likely to remain in suspension in perpetuity, even under conditions of steady flow or in unsteady flow the where dimensionless critical threshold is permanently exceeded. Rather, like bedload, it travels in a series of hops, and is repeatedly deposited on the bed where it remains until it is re‐entrained. Is there, therefore, a qualitative difference between suspended and saltating sediment, or is it just a quantitative difference in the size of the jump length and the frequency of re‐entrainment? It is our contention that the distinction of suspension as a separate class of sediment transport is both arbitrary and an unhelpful anthropocentric artefact. If we recognize that sediment transport is a continuum and applies to any fluid medium rather than split into different “processes” based on arbitrary thresholds and fluids, then recognizing the continuity will enable development of an holistic approach sediment transport, and thus sediment‐transport models that are likely to be viable across a wider range of conditions than hitherto. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stochastic modelling and risk analysis of groundwater pollution using FORM coupled with automatic differentiation

The first order reliability method (FORM) has been widely used in probabilistic modelling of groundwater problems. The FORM approach requires an iterative optimization procedure to find out the system failure point (the most probable point).The advantages of this approach are that it does not require many computations in comparison with other methods when applied to simple problems, and it produces reasonably accurate results. However, it has been found that the computations of FORM can equal or exceed that of other methods in case of large number of variables.In this paper, a new implementation of FORM was proposed with more efficiency and accuracy than the traditional FORM method. In the proposed approach, automatic differentiation is used to obtain the gradient vector of the limit state function, which is required by FORM, instead of using finite difference estimation. This way, the first order derivative was obtained with a very good accuracy, and with less computational effort. Based on the obtained results, it is found that the proposed implementation of FORM is a very good tool for probabilistic risk assessment and uncertainty analysis in groundwater problems.     

基于挤喷流效应的Russell流体因子推广及应用

在油气勘探与开发过程中,寻求能够从地震资料中直接识别储层油气的流体指示因子至关重要.由于现存多数流体指示因子都是在Biot理论假设前提下建立起来的,因此在双相孔隙介质条件下不能有效地识别流体.为此,本文基于前人提出的双孔介质统一波动理论,考虑岩石裂缝间挤喷流效应,在经典流体指示因子基础上构建了一种新的流体指示因子.该流体因子能够较好地反映岩石内孔隙流体的变化对波传播产生的影响.在实际资料的应用中,采用多种方法分析、对比该流体识别因子与以Biot理论为基础的传统流体因子的优劣,理论分析与实际资料的验证表明该流体因子对于储层中油气的检测有较高的精度和灵敏度.     

有关1976年唐山地震发震断层的讨论

对《地震地质》刊登的两篇文章中有关唐山断裂是高角度西倾的逆冲走滑断裂及唐山市东侧付庄-西河断裂是唐山地震的发震断裂的观点进行讨论。笔者认为,如果唐山地震断层是西倾的逆冲走滑活动,需要考虑唐山逆冲断裂的活动方式与唐山市西侧第四纪凹陷之间的关系;如果付庄-西河断裂是唐山地震震源构造的地表破裂,需要解释该西倾的倾滑断裂带与唐山市内走滑地裂缝带的成因联系。此外,还需要更有说服力的证据排除该地表破裂带是次生构造破裂的可能。建议对控制草泊第四纪凹陷的活动断裂开展调查     

Acceleration of mean zonal flows by planetary waves

The mechanism of acceleration of the mean zonal flow by a planetary wave is explained intuitively by considering the wave drag which a corrugated bottom feels when it excites the wave. The explanation is justified by solving the problem of vertical propagation of a planetary wave packet and the second order mean motion induced around it. The discussion is slightly extended to the case of small damping, to illustrate in a compact form the fact that the mean zonal acceleration is determined by a forcing due to wave transience plus that due to wave dissipation.The mean flow induced by a steady, dissipating planetary wave is discussed, and it is shown that it depends largely on the dissipation scale-height of the wave whether the northern region is heated or cooled. For example, if the wave velocity-amplitude increases upward in spite of dissipation, the induced easterly flow increases with height and the temperature of the northern region increases relative to that in the southern region. A similar point has been made byDunkerton (1979) in connection with westerly flows induced by Kelvin waves.The Lagrangian-mean motion induced by a planetary wave is briefly discussed in connection with the mechanism of acceleration of the mean zonal flow, in the case of a slowly varying wave packet. Further, in order el elucidate the effects of wave dissipation and time dependence of wave amplitude, the results obtained for a steady, dissipating wave and for a growing baroclinic wave are mentioned.     

sPL,一个近距离确定震源深度的震相

实际地震波形观测表明,对于大陆结构相对简单的地壳中的地震而言,有一震相出现在P 波和S波之间.一般在30~50 km附近发育得较好,其能量主要集中在径向分量,而垂向分量的振幅相对径向要小,切向分量上的振幅很弱,且波形以低频为主,通常没有P波尖锐.在利用FK方法计算合成地震图的基础上,发现该震相是由S波入射到自由地表形成水平传播的P波(文献称为surface P wave,自由地表P波)或者包括S波入射到地表后形成的多次P波或其散射震相.由于该震相是由S波和P波之间耦合而形成,本文将其定义为sPL(s coupled into P) 震相.理论波形研究表明,sPL相对直达P波的到时差对震中距离不敏感,而随着震源深度的增加几乎呈线性增加,因此可以很好的约束震源深度.本文以2005年江西九江地震为例,证实了sPL确定震源深度的可行性和可靠性.在观测到sPL震相的情况下,离震源50 km以内的一个三分量地震台站的波形就可以帮助获得可靠的震源深度,而不需要精确的震中距离.由于sPL震相出现距离较近,对于较小(三级以上)的地震也可以应用,因此在稀疏台网布局情形下sPL对于确定中小地震深度应该具有很好的应用意义.     

福建地区地震活动空间分布及活动断裂特点研究

分析了1604年发生在泉州海外的8级大地震, 将所获结果结合其后400年间发生在该地区的地震活动作进一步的探讨。 在获取对该大地震的认识的基础上, 结合现代地震观测数据资料, 对福建地区的地震活动性进行再研究。 结果表明, 由于菲律宾板块向西挤压, 导致大陆东南沿海的应力积累, 从而诱发了当年泉州海外8级特大地震; 重要的是, 在震源区附近有一条近NE向活动断裂贯穿而过, 它在这400年间释放出的地震活动能量占福建地区(含近邻)所释放地震活动能量的绝大部分。 分析结果认为: 牛山岛-兄弟屿断裂这条基本平行于长乐-诏安主干断裂东约50 km海中的断裂才是福建地区近几百年来地震活动主要区域, 也是福建地区现今和今后一段时间易发生地震的构造部位, 是控制东南沿海近海地震带的主要活动断裂。     

The Water Budget Myth and Its Recharge Controversy: Linear vs. Nonlinear Models

The water budget myth, which is the idea that safe pumping must not exceed the initial recharge, gave rise to a controversy about the role of recharge in assessing the sustainability of groundwater development. To refute the concept of safe yield, a simplified water budget equation is used, which equals the total pumping rate to the sum of capture and storage change. Since initial recharge and discharge are canceled out from this equation, it is concluded that sustainable pumping has nothing to do with recharge. Investigating the assumptions underlying this equation, it is seen that it expresses the superposition principle, which implicitly assumes the groundwater reservoir can be depleted indefinitely and boundary conditions are an infinite source of water. To evaluate sustainability, however, the limits of the aquifer system must be examined accurately. Theoretically, this can only be accomplished applying nonlinear models, in which case setting up the simplified water budget equation is impossible without knowing the initial conditions. Hence, excluding recharge when assessing sustainable pumping may not be done inconsiderately, which is illustrated by two examples. An analytical solution, developed by Ernst in 1971 to simulate flow to a well in a polder area with a nonlinear function for drainage, even shows that it is not necessarily a misconception to assume the cone of depression stops expanding when the pumping rate is balanced by the infiltration rate.     

Split sampling technique for selecting a flood frequency analysis procedure

The use of a split sampling technique for selecting a flood frequency analysis procedure is discussed in detail with the aid of simulation experiment results. Although this technique is unable to identify the most likely statistical distribution which generated given flood data, it is demonstrated that it provides useful results with which to compare the relative merits of different flood frequency estimation procedures.     

ESTIMATION OF ELASTIC PARAMETERS FROM AVO EFFECTS IN THE TAU-P DOMAIN1

A quantitative AVO algorithm suitable for media with slow lateral parameter variations is developed. The method is based on a target-oriented inversion scheme for estimation of elastic parameters in a locally horizontally stratified medium. The algorithm uses band-limited PP reflection coefficients in the τ-p domain to estimate P- and S-wave velocities, densities and layer thicknesses. To obtain these reflection coefficients, a pre-processing involving the Radon transform and multiple attenuation is necessary. Furthermore, a macromodel for the velocities above the target zone must be found prior to the inversion. Various inversion tests involving synthetic data with white Gaussian noise and modelling errors that are likely to occur in conjunction with real data have been performed. In general, the inversion algorithm is fairly robust, since it is able to reproduce the main features of the reference model: main interface locations and relative contrasts in the three unknown layer parameters are recovered. From a test combining the effect of source directivity, one thin layer and 20% white Gaussian noise, it was found that neglect of the source directivity in the inversion caused the largest errors in the estimates. This indicates that it is very important either to eliminate the source directivity in a preprocessing step, or to take the directivity into account in the present algorithm. Despite these problems it was concluded that the inversion algorithm was able to reproduce the main features of the reference model.     

Gravity Anomalies of 2.5-D Multiple Prismatic Structures with Variable Density: A Marquardt Inversion

We present an inversion technique based on the Marquardt algorithm to estimate the depth of a 2.5-D sedimentary basin in addition to the regional gravity anomaly that is associated with the residual gravity anomaly, wherein the density contrast varies parabolically with depth. Forward modeling is carried out through a derived analytical gravity expression of a 2.5-D vertical prism. Inversion of a theoretical gravity anomaly with and without a regional gravity anomaly illustrates the procedure that it is found to be insensitive to the regional gravity effect. Furthermore, the algorithm is exemplified with the gravity anomalies of the derived density-depth model of the Godavari subbasin, India with a parabolic density profile resulting in a more consistent geological model rather than a constant density profile. The main advantage of this method is that it works well even when the profile of interpretation does not bisect the strike length of the sedimentary basin.     

Comparison of waveform inversion, part 1: conventional wavefield vs logarithmic wavefield

This is the first in a series of three papers focused on using variants of a logarithmic objective function approach to full waveform inversion. In this article, we investigate waveform inversion using full logarithmic principles and compare the results with the conventional least squares approach. We demonstrate theoretically that logarithmic inversion is computational similar to the conventional method in the sense that it uses exactly the same back‐propagation technology as used in least‐squares inversion. In the sense that it produces better results for each of three numerical examples, we conclude that logarithmic inversion is also more robust. We argue that a major reason for the inherent robustness is the fact that the logarithmic approach produces a natural scaling of the amplitude of the residual wavefield by the amplitude of the modelled wavefield that tends to stabilize the computations and consequently improve the final result. We claim that any superiority of the logarithmic inversion is based on the fact that it tends to be tomographic in the early stage of the inversion and more dependent on amplitude differences in the latter stages.     

利用小波包分析进行地震相关热红外辐射异常信息检测

研究表明很多地震前后存在明显的热红外辐射异常.影响地物热红外辐射信息的因素很多,而地震相关的热红外辐射异常是强干扰背景下的弱信息,难以简单地将其提取出来.本文将地震相关的热红外辐射异常作为一种事件性的信号分析,通过小波包分析将热红外辐射信息的时间序列分解成不同频带的信号,通过分析各频带信号能量的变化规律进行事件性信号检测.2005年11月26日九江地震、2006年4月21日堪察加地震和1998年8月27日伽师地震的研究结果表明,小波包分析能有效检测这种事件性信号,同时显示这种事件性信号与地震活动之间关系的机理和时空演化特征是进一步研究的重点.     

RESOLUTION ENHANCEMENT OF WELL LOG AND SEISMIC DATA*

A new method with general applications for seismic data is presented for spectral extrapolation. The method gives a restored image that is optimum in the sense of minimum norm and can be adapted to incorporate any constraints on the reconstruction. As an illustration of the technique it is first applied to a synthesized (noise-free) image. Then it is shown that enhancement of a density log (run in a hole drilled entirely in Coal Measures rocks) is possible using constraints taken from the geologist's log. A synthetic trace with significantly improved event arrival times and general character is obtained.     

山东地区与朝鲜半岛地区地震的相关性

系统分析了山东及朝鲜半岛地区历史地震记载的情况和特点，分析表明，两区的历史与现代地震资料有较强的互补性强震具有同步涨落，遥相呼应的相关性，这种相关性天时间上具有步进次序关系，受高层次地震活动韵所制约；空间上则有相近纬度优势呼应现象。初步认为，这两个地区地震的相关现象与共同受到西太平洋消减带的俯冲推挤作用有关。     

地震危险性评价中余震活动的影响--以邢台余震区为例

目前通用的地震危险性模型在确定有关地震活动性参数时都强调删除余震,其理由是因为所应用的地震活动模型是泊松模型。但是在现实的地震灾害中,有些是因为余震活动所引起的。忽略余震活动的影响,可能会低估某些区域的地震危险。本文提出考虑余震活动的地震危险性分析模型,并从此模型出发,以邢台地震为例,对余震区内、余震区边界和余震区外等场点计算了考虑余震活动的地震危险性结果,同时,在原有模型的基础上,只改变余震区所处的潜在震源区的地震年发生率,计算相同场点的地震危险性结果,并把这两个结果与不考虑余震活动的结果进行比较,在此基础上讨论在某些区域考虑余震活动的必要性。