Changes of Air–sea Coupling in the North Atlantic over the 20th Century

Changes of air–sea coupling in the North Atlantic Ocean over the 20 th century are investigated using reanalysis data,climate model simulations, and observational data. It is found that the ocean-to-atmosphere feedback over the North Atlantic is significantly intensified in the second half of the 20 th century. This coupled feedback is characterized by the association between the summer North Atlantic Horseshoe(NAH) SST anomalies and the following winter North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO). The intensification is likely associated with the enhancement of the North Atlantic storm tracks as well as the NAH SST anomalies. Our study also reveals that most IPCC AR4 climate models fail to capture the observed NAO/NAH coupled feedback.     

Formation and pathways of North Atlantic Deep Water in a coupled ice–ocean model of the Arctic–North Atlantic Oceans

We investigate the formation process and pathways of deep water masses in a coupled ice–ocean model of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans. The intent is to determine the relative roles of these water masses from the different source regions (Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas, and Subpolar Atlantic) in the meridional overturning circulation. The model exhibits significant decadal variability in the deep western boundary current and the overturning circulation. We use detailed diagnostics to understand the process of water mass formation in the model and the resulting effects on the North Atlantic overturning circulation. Particular emphasis is given to the multiple sources of North Atlantic Deep Water, the dominant deep water masses of the world ocean. The correct balance of Labrador Sea, Greenland Sea and Norwegian Sea sources is difficult to achieve in climate models, owing to small-scale sinking and convection processes. The global overturning circulation is described as a function of potential temperature and salinity, which more clearly signifies dynamical processes and clarifies resolution problems inherent to the high latitude oceans. We find that fluxes of deep water masses through various passages in the model are higher than observed estimates. Despite the excessive volume flux, the Nordic Seas overflow waters are diluted by strong mixing and enter the Labrador Sea at a lighter density. Through strong subpolar convection, these waters along with other North Atlantic water masses are converted into the densest waters [similar density to Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW)] in the North Atlantic. We describe the diminished role of salinity in the Labrador Sea, where a shortage of buoyant surface water (or excess of high salinity water) leads to overly strong convection. The result is that the Atlantic overturning circulation in the model is very sensitive to the surface heat flux in the Labrador Sea and hence is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. As strong subpolar convection is found in other models, we discuss broader implications.     

The relation of meridional pressure gradients to North Atlantic deep water volume transport in an ocean general circulation model

We use a coarse resolution ocean general circulation model to study the relation between meridional pressure and density gradients in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. In several experiments, we artificially modify the meridional density gradients by applying different magnitudes of the Gent–McWilliams isopycnal eddy diffusion coefficients in the Southern Ocean and in the North Atlantic and investigate the response of the simulated Atlantic meridional overturning to such changes. The simulations are carried out close to the limit of no diapycnal mixing, with a very small explicit vertical diffusivity and a tracer advection scheme with very low implicit diffusivities. Our results reveal that changes in eddy diffusivities in the North Atlantic affect the maximum of the Atlantic meridional overturning, but not the outflow of North Atlantic Deep Water into the Southern Ocean. In contrast, changes in eddy diffusivities in the Southern Ocean affect both the South Atlantic outflow of North Atlantic Deep Water and the maximum of the Atlantic meridional overturning. Results from these experiments are used to investigate the relation between meridional pressure gradients and the components of the Atlantic meridional overturning. Pressure gradients and overturning are found to be linearly related. We show that, in our simulations, zonally averaged deep pressure gradients are very weak between 20°S and about 30°N and that between 30°N and 60°N the zonally averaged pressure grows approximately linearly with latitude. This pressure difference balances a westward geostrophic flow at 30–40°N that feeds the southbound deep Atlantic western boundary current. We extend our analysis to a large variety of experiments in which surface freshwater forcing, vertical mixing and winds are modified. In all experiments, the pycnocline depth, assumed to be the relevant vertical scale for the northward volume transport in the Atlantic, is found to be approximately constant, at least within the coarse vertical resolution of the model. The model behaviour hence cannot directly be related to conceptual models in which changes in the pycnocline depth determine the strength of Atlantic meridional flow, and seems conceptually closer to Stommel’s box model. In all our simulations, the Atlantic overturning seems to be mainly driven by Southern Ocean westerlies. However, the actual strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning is not determined solely by the Southern Ocean wind stress but as well by the density/pressure gradients created between the deep water formation regions in the North Atlantic and the inflow/outflow region in the South Atlantic.     

Air–sea coupling in the North Atlantic during summer

In this work, we have investigated the evolution of the summer air–sea interaction in the North Atlantic Ocean and the physical processes involved using reanalysis data and model simulation. It is found that an atmosphere disturbance over the North Atlantic Ocean in the preceding winter favors the build-up of a North Atlantic horseshoe-like sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern in the summer through modifying the northeast trade winds and changing ocean upwelling and downwelling. The changed ocean condition (SSTA, upwelling, and downwelling) further intensifies the atmosphere disturbance as a positive feedback. The thermal advection of the atmosphere disturbance weakens the SSTA pattern in the following autumn and winter. The anomalous circulation associated with the air–sea interaction in the observations is characterized by a barotropic structure in the middle and high latitudes of the North Atlantic Ocean. The baroclinic component is enhanced in the model simulation, particularly in the seasons from summer to winter. The life cycle of the air–sea interaction is about 1 year in both the observations and simulations.     

Secular spring rainfall variability at local scale over Ethiopia: trend and associated dynamics

Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. The joint coherent spatio-temporal secular variability of gridded monthly gauge rainfall over Ethiopia, ERA-Interim atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST) from Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) data set is extracted using multi-taper method singular value decomposition (MTM-SVD). The contemporaneous associations are further examined using partial Granger causality to determine presence of causal linkage between any of the climate variables. This analysis reveals that only the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly has direct causal links with spring rainfall over Ethiopia and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) over Africa inspite of the strong secular covariance of spring rainfall, SST in parts of subtropical Pacific, Atlantic, Indian Ocean and MSLP. High secular rainfall variance and statistically significant linear trend show consistently that there is a massive decline in spring rain over southern Ethiopia. This happened concurrently with significant buildup of MSLP over East Africa, northeastern Africa including parts of the Arabian Peninsula, some parts of central Africa and SST warming over all ocean basins with the exception of the ENSO regions. The east-west pressure gradient in response to the Indian Ocean warming led to secular southeasterly winds over the Arabian Sea, easterly over central Africa and equatorial Atlantic. These flows weakened climatological northeasterly flow over the Arabian Sea and southwesterly flow over equatorial Atlantic and Congo basins which supply moisture into the eastern Africa regions in spring. The secular divergent flow at low level is concurrent with upper level convergence due to the easterly secular anomalous flow. The mechanisms through which the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly modulates rainfall are further explored in the context of East Africa using a simplified atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to mixed-layer oceanic model. The rainfall anomaly (with respect to control simulation), forced by the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly and averaged over the 30-year period, exhibits prevalence of dry conditions over East and equatorial Africa in agreement with observation. The atmospheric response to secular SST warming anomaly led to divergent flow at low levels and subsidence at the upper troposphere over regions north of 5^° S on the continent and vice versa over the Indian Ocean. This surface difluence over East Africa, in addition to its role in suppressing convective activity, deprives the region of moisture supply from the Indian Ocean as well as the Atlantic and Congo basins.     

Interannual variability of the surface heat budget over the northern North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans

Summary The January anomaly time series for each term of the surface heat budget (solar and longwave radiation, sensible and latent heat fluxes) are calculated for Ocean Weather Stations (OWSs) in the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans. The data set used is the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS). The dominant term is the latent heat flux. The results for OWS P in the northern North Pacific show that the interannual variability of the heat budget parameters is correlated with the synoptic variability of the Aleutian low. There is also an interdecadal signal present in the heat budget anomaly time series, with the sign of the anomaly persisting for about 8–10 years. In contrast, for OWS J in the northern North Atlantic, no correlation is found between the variability of the heat budget parameters and the corresponding synoptic variability of the Icelandic low. The station J air-sea heat fluxes also show a higher frequency variability, compared to those of station P. The results suggest the variability of the January air-sea heat exchange processes are fundamentally different over the two ocean basins.With 3 Figures     

Future impact of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol on North Atlantic climate

We examine the simulated future change of the North Atlantic winter climate influenced by anthropogenic greenhouses gases and sulfate aerosol. Two simulations performed with the climate model ECHAM4/OPYC3 are investigated: a simulation forced by greenhouse gases and a simulation forced by greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol. Only the direct aerosol effect on the clear-sky radiative fluxes is considered. The sulfate aerosol has a significant impact on temperature, radiative quantities, precipitation and atmospheric dynamics. Generally, we find a similar, but weaker future climate response if sulfate aerosol is considered additionally. Due to the induced negative top-of-the-atmosphere radiative forcing, the future warming is attenuated. We find no significant future trends in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in both simulations. However, the aerosol seems to have a balancing effect on the occurence of extreme NAO events. The simulated correlation patterns of the NAO index with temperature and precipitation, respectively, agree well with observations up to the present. The extent of the regions influenced by the NAO tends to be reduced under strong greenhouse gas forcing. If sulfate is included and the warming is smaller, this tendency is reversed. Also, the future decrease in baroclinicity is smaller due to the aerosols’ cooling effect and the poleward shift in track density is partly offset. Our findings imply that in simulations where aerosol cooling is neglected, the magnitude of the future warming over the North Atlantic region is overestimated, and correlation patterns differ from those based on the future simulation including aerosols.     

Surface fluxes of momentum and mechanical energy over the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans

Summary Using 6-hourly data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis set (1958–1997) we have determined the winter and summer mean fluxes of momentum and mechanical energy into the Northern Hemisphere (NH) oceans. We have also diagnosed the contribution made to these by the mean wind speed and the covariances due to the temporal variability. In both seasons the greatest oceanic flux of momentum is found in the region to the south of Greenland and Iceland. The contributions to the total made by the transient term exhibited maxima in the north central Pacific and Atlantic and in winter, and accounts for about 15% of the mean stress in both extratropical ocean basins and both seasons. The rate at which mechanical energy is imparted to the ocean shows a similar spatial structure. The fluxes are typically three times larger in winter, and about one third of the input is associated with the transient part of the low level wind. The spatial and temporal structure of the part of fluxes contributed by the temporal variability shows a strong relationship with mean cyclone depth, a parameter known to represent an unbiased measure of cyclone activity. The fluxes exhibit significant positive winter trends (many of which are significant) over the extratropical Pacific and in the Atlantic north of about 40° N, and these have been found to result from reinforcing trends in the components associated with the mean wind speed and the temporally varying part. The changes are broadly in line with those in observed significant wave height over the northern oceans in recent decades, and are closely related to secular increases in the mean depth of cyclones. Positive trends in the number of extreme cyclones in key regions of the Pacific and Atlantic have been found. The trend is significant in the relevant part of the Pacific, but whether the increase in the Atlantic subregion should be regarded as above the noise is seen to depend on how such extremes are defined. We discuss how conclusions drawn in specific studies may depend critically on how cyclones and extreme events are characterized. Received November 2, 2001 Revised December 24, 2001     

Impacts of SST anomalies on the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation: a case study for the northern winter 1995/1996

The present paper selects the northern winter of December 1995–February 1996 for a case study on the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and Western Europe. In the Atlantic, the selected winter was characterized by positive SST anomalies over the northern subtropics and east of Newfoundland, and negative anomalies along the US coast. A weak La Niña event developed in the Pacific. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index was low, precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and northern Africa was anomalously high, and precipitation over northern Europe was anomalously low. The method of study consists of assessing the sensitivity of ensemble simulations by the UCLA atmospheric general circulation model (UCLA AGCM) to SST anomalies from the observation, which are prescribed either in the World Oceans, the Atlantic Ocean only, or the subtropical North Atlantic only. The results obtained are compared with a control run that uses global, time-varying climatological SST. The ensemble simulations with global and Atlantic-only SST anomalies both produce results that resemble the observations over the North Atlantic and Western Europe. It is suggested that the anomalous behavior of the atmosphere in the selected winter over those regions, therefore, was primarily determined by conditions within the Atlantic basin. The simulated fields in the tropical North Atlantic show anomalous upward motion and lower (upper) level convergence (divergence) in the atmosphere overlying the positive SST anomalies. Consistently, the subtropical jet intensifies and its core moves equatorward, and precipitation increases over northern Africa and southern Europe. The results also suggest that the SST anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic only do not suffice to produce the atmospheric anomalies observed in the basin during the selected winter. The extratropical SST anomalies would provide a key contribution through increased transient eddy activity, which causes an extension of the subtropical jet eastward from the coast of North America.     

Effects of fluctuating daily surface fluxes on the time-mean oceanic circulation

The effect of fluctuating daily surface fluxes on the time-mean oceanic circulation is studied using an empirical flux model. The model produces fluctuating fluxes resulting from atmospheric variability and includes oceanic feedbacks on the fluxes. Numerical experiments were carried out by driving an ocean general circulation model with three different versions of the empirical model. It is found that fluctuating daily fluxes lead to an increase in the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of the Atlantic of about 1 Sv and a decrease in the Antarctic circumpolar current (ACC) of about 32 Sv. The changes are approximately 7% of the MOC and 16% of the ACC obtained without fluctuating daily fluxes. The fluctuating fluxes change the intensity and the depth of vertical mixing. This, in turn, changes the density field and thus the circulation. Fluctuating buoyancy fluxes change the vertical mixing in a non-linear way: they tend to increase the convective mixing in mostly stable regions and to decrease the convective mixing in mostly unstable regions. The ACC changes are related to the enhanced mixing in the subtropical and the mid-latitude Southern Ocean and reduced mixing in the high-latitude Southern Ocean. The enhanced mixing is related to an increase in the frequency and the depth of convective events. As these events bring more dense water downward, the mixing changes lead to a reduction in meridional gradient of the depth-integrated density in the Southern Ocean and hence the strength of the ACC. The MOC changes are related to more subtle density changes. It is found that the vertical mixing in a latitudinal strip in the northern North Atlantic is more strongly enhanced due to fluctuating fluxes than the mixing in a latitudinal strip in the South Atlantic. This leads to an increase in the density difference between the two strips, which can be responsible for the increase in the Atlantic MOC.     

On the contribution of Rossby waves driven by surface buoyancy fluxes to low-frequency North Atlantic steric sea surface height variations

Previous studies have shown that wind-forced baroclinic Rossby waves can capture a large portion of low-frequency steric sea surface height (SSH) variations in the North Atlantic. In this paper, the classical wind-driven Rossby wave model derived in a 1.5-layer ocean is extended to include surface buoyancy forcing, and the new model is then used to assess the contribution from buoyancy-forced Rossby waves to low-frequency North Atlantic steric SSH variations. Buoyancy forcing is determined from surface heating as freshwater fluxes are negligible. It is found that buoyancy-forced Rossby waves are important in only a few regions belonging to the subtropical-to-midlatitude and eastern subpolar North Atlantic. In these regions, the new Rossby wave model accounts for 25%–70% of low-frequency steric SSH variations. Furthermore, as part of the analysis it is also shown that a simple static model driven by local surface heat fluxes captures 60%–75% of low-frequency steric SSH variations in the Labrador Sea, which is a region where Rossby waves are found to have no influence on the steric SSH.     

Energy transports by ocean and atmosphere based on an entropy extremum principle. Part II: Two-dimensional transports

Summary The maximum entropy production (MEP) principle used in Part J has been extended to separate the two-dimensional required energy transports determined from Nimbus 7 satellite net radiation measurements into atmospheric and oceanic components. In terms of the meridional component of the ocean transport vectors, results show northward ocean transports throughout the entire Atlantic ocean from southern hemisphere high latitudes to northern hemisphere polar regions, southward transports throughout the entire Indian Ocean, and poleward transports separated at approximately 10°S in the Pacific Ocean. The ocean transport patterns are consistent with well-known features concerning heat transport within the three ocean basins. However, uncertainty remains in the magnitudes of the transports. Because of the large remaining discrepancies between published estimates based on direct measurements and indirect estimates derived from energy budget methods, assessing the accuracy of the magnitudes is difficult, although there is evidence that the limited model resolution leads to synergistic biases in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. In terms of the crossmeridional energy transport component, results suggest that most of the net energy transfer in the tropics takes place within the ocean. In the southern hemisphere high latitudes, the Pacific and Indian Oceans export heat cross-meridionally to the Atlantic Ocean through the passages below Cape Horn and the Cape of Good Hope, although the magnitudes of these inter-ocean heat exchanges are small. Another important aspect of the southern hemisphere results is that poleward transports are dominated by the atmospheric component with strong zonal asymmetry. By contrast, in the northern hemisphere, atmospheric transports over the ocean are generally weaker than the corresponding southern hemisphere terms, indicating that the northern hemisphere oceans are relatively more effective in transferring heat poleward. Finally, poleward atmospheric transports over the continental areas exceed those over the ocean at equivalent latitudes as a result of the generally greater energy deficits over the land areas.With 7 Figures     

Multidecadal-to-centennial SST variability in the MPI-ESM simulation ensemble for the last millennium

We assess the responses of North Atlantic, North Pacific, and tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) to natural forcing and their linkage to simulated global surface temperature (GST) variability in the MPI-Earth System Model simulation ensemble for the last millennium. In the simulations, North Atlantic and tropical Indian Ocean SSTs show a strong sensitivity to external forcing and a strong connection to GST. The leading mode of extra-tropical North Pacific SSTs is, on the other hand, rather resilient to natural external perturbations. Strong tropical volcanic eruptions and, to a lesser extent, variability in solar activity emerge as potentially relevant sources for multidecadal SST modes’ phase modulations, possibly through induced changes in the atmospheric teleconnection between North Atlantic and North Pacific that can persist over decadal and multidecadal timescales. Linkages among low-frequency regional modes of SST variability, and among them and GST, can remarkably vary over the integration time. No coherent or constant phasing is found between North Pacific and North Atlantic SST modes over time and among the ensemble members. Based on our assessments of how multidecadal transitions in simulated North Atlantic SSTs compare to reconstructions and of how they contribute characterizing simulated multidecadal regional climate anomalies, past regional climate multidecadal fluctuations seem to be reproducible as simulated ensemble-mean responses only for temporal intervals dominated by major external forcings.     

Impact of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature tripole on the East Asian summer monsoon

A strong (weak) East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is usually concurrent with the tripole pattern of North Atlantic SST anomalies on the interannual timescale during summer, which has positive (negative) SST anomalies in the northwestern North Atlantic and negative (positive) SST anomalies in the subpolar and tropical ocean. The mechanisms responsible for this linkage are diagnosed in the present study. It is shown that a barotropic wave-train pattern occurring over the Atlantic-Eurasia region likely acts as a link between the EASM and the SST tripole during summer. This wave-train pattern is concurrent with geopotential height anomalies over the Ural Mountains, which has a substantial effect on the EASM. Diagnosis based on observations and linear dynamical model results reveals that the mechanism for maintaining the wave-train pattern involves both the anomalous diabatic heating and synoptic eddy-vorticity forcing. Since the North Atlantic SST tripole is closely coupled with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the relationships between these two factors and the EASM are also examined. It is found that the connection of the EASM with the summer SST tripole is sensitive to the meridional location of the tripole, which is characterized by large seasonal variations due to the north-south movement of the activity centers of the NAO. The SST tripole that has a strong relationship with the EASM appears to be closely coupled with the NAO in the previous spring rather than in the simultaneous summer.     

A possible feedback mechanism involving the Arctic freshwater, the Arctic sea ice, and the North Atlantic Drift

Model studies point to enhanced warming and to increased freshwater fluxes to high northern latitudes in response to global warming. In order to address possible feedbacks in the ice-ocean system in response to such changes, the combined effect of increased freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean and Arctic warming--the latter manifested as a gradual melting of the Arctic sea ice--is examined using a 3-D isopycnic coordinate ocean general circulation model. A suite of three idealized experiments is carried out: one control integration, one integration with a doubling of the modern Arctic river runoff, and a third more extreme case, where the river runoff is five times the modern value. In the two freshwater cases, the sea ice thickness is reduced by 1.5-2 m in the central Arctic Ocean over a 50-year period. The modelled ocean response is qualitatively the same for both perturbation experiments: freshwater propagates into the Atlantic Ocean and the Nordic Seas, leading to an initial weakening of the North Atlantic Drift.Furthermore, changes in the geostrophic currents in the central Arctic and melting of the Arctic sea ice lead to an intensified Beaufort Gyre, which in turn increases the southward volume transport through the Canadian Archipelago. To compensate for this southward transport of mass, more warm and saline Atlantic water is carried northward with the North Atlantic Drift. It is found that the increased transport of salt into the northern North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas tends to counteract the impact of the increased freshwater originating from the Arctic, leading to a stabilization of the North Atlantic Drift.     

Glacial Thermohaline Circulation and Climate：Forcing from the North or South？

Based on the evidence available from both observations and model simulations, the author proposes a view that may provide a unified interpretation of the North Atlantic thermohaline variability. Because of the slow response time of the Southern Ocean （millennia） and the relatively faster response time of the North Atlantic （centuries）, the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation is controlled predominantly by the climate forcing over the Southern Ocean at the long glacial cycle timescales, but by the North Atlantic climate forcing at the short millennial timescaies.     

North Atlantic warming: patterns of long-term trend and multidecadal variability

Climate fluctuations in the North Atlantic Ocean have wide-spread implications for Europe, Africa, and the Americas. This study assesses the relative contribution of the long-term trend and variability of North Atlantic warming using EOF analysis of deep-ocean and near-surface observations. Our analysis demonstrates that the recent warming over the North Atlantic is linked to both long-term (including anthropogenic and natural) climate change and multidecadal variability (MDV, ~50–80 years). Our results suggest a general warming trend of 0.031 ± 0.006°C/decade in the upper 2,000 m North Atlantic over the last 80 years of the twentieth century, although during this time there are periods in which short-term trends were strongly amplified by MDV. For example, MDV accounts for ~60% of North Atlantic warming since 1970. The single-sign basin-scale pattern of MDV with prolonged periods of warming (cooling) in the upper ocean layer and opposite tendency in the lower layer is evident from observations. This pattern is associated with a slowdown (enhancement) of the North Atlantic thermohaline overturning circulation during negative (positive) MDV phases. In contrast, the long-term trend exhibits warming in tropical and mid-latitude North Atlantic and a pattern of cooling in regions associated with major northward heat transports, consistent with a slowdown of the North Atlantic circulation as evident from observations and confirmed by selected modeling results. This localized cooling has been masked in recent decades by warming during the positive phase of MDV. Finally, since the North Atlantic Ocean plays a crucial role in establishing and regulating the global thermohaline circulation, the multidecadal fluctuations discussed here should be considered when assessing long-term climate change and variability, both in the North Atlantic and at global scales.     

Asian summer monsoon prediction in ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective seasonal forecasts

The seasonal prediction skill of the Asian summer monsoon is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982–2009) from the ECMWF System 4 (SYS4) and NCEP CFS version 2 (CFSv2) seasonal prediction systems. In both SYS4 and CFSv2, a cold bias of sea-surface temperature (SST) is found over the equatorial Pacific, North Atlantic, Indian Oceans and over a broad region in the Southern Hemisphere relative to observations. In contrast, a warm bias is found over the northern part of North Pacific and North Atlantic. Excessive precipitation is found along the ITCZ, equatorial Atlantic, equatorial Indian Ocean and the maritime continent. The southwest monsoon flow and the Somali Jet are stronger in SYS4, while the south-easterly trade winds over the tropical Indian Ocean, the Somali Jet and the subtropical northwestern Pacific high are weaker in CFSv2 relative to the reanalysis. In both systems, the prediction of SST, precipitation and low-level zonal wind has greatest skill in the tropical belt, especially over the central and eastern Pacific where the influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is dominant. Both modeling systems capture the global monsoon and the large-scale monsoon wind variability well, while at the same time performing poorly in simulating monsoon precipitation. The Asian monsoon prediction skill increases with the ENSO amplitude, although the models simulate an overly strong impact of ENSO on the monsoon. Overall, the monsoon predictive skill is lower than the ENSO skill in both modeling systems but both systems show greater predictive skill compared to persistence.     

Discrepancies in Simulated Ocean Net Surface Heat Fluxes over the North Atlantic

The change in ocean net surface heat flux plays an important role in the climate system. It is closely related to the ocean heat content change and ocean heat transport, particularly over the North Atlantic, where the ocean loses heat to the atmosphere, affecting the AMOC(Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) variability and hence the global climate.However, the difference between simulated surface heat fluxes is still large due to poorly represented dynamical processes involving multisca...     

1998年和2016年北大西洋海温异常对中国夏季降水影响的数值模拟研究

基于1979-2016年ERA-Interim再分析资料和CAM5.3模式,研究了2016年和1998年北大西洋海温异常对中国夏季降水以及大尺度环流的可能影响及其机制。结果表明,这两年前夏（6-7月）长江中下游及其以南地区降水均异常偏多,但1998年降水异常较2016年更为显著。后夏（8月）,2016年长江以南地区降水异常偏多,长江-黄河流域降水异常偏少,而1998年降水异常分布与之相反。2016年和1998年夏季中国东部降水异常的差异与西北太平洋对流层低层异常反气旋以及欧亚中高纬度环流变化的共同作用直接相关。敏感性数值试验的结果表明,北大西洋海温异常的显著差异是导致2016年和1998年夏季中国东部降水以及大尺度环流异常存在明显差异的重要原因之一。一方面,北大西洋海温异常可以通过改变欧亚中高纬度环流进而对中国夏季降水产生影响。1998年北大西洋海温异常自热带至副极地呈类似"+ - +"型分布,这种海温异常型能够在前夏欧亚中高纬度地区激发出双阻型的环流异常响应。2016年北大西洋海温异常自热带至副极地呈相对弱的"- + -"型分布,欧亚中高纬度环流异常响应总体偏弱。另一方面,北大西洋海温异常还可以通过影响热带纬向环流进而对西北太平洋对流层低层异常反气旋起调制作用。1998年北大西洋海温异常对夏季西北太平洋异常反气旋起增强作用,这与热带印度洋-太平洋海温的强迫作用相协调。然而,2016年北大西洋海温异常则有利于西北太平洋异常反气旋的减弱,这与热带印度洋-太平洋海温的强迫作用相反。因此,在这3个大洋的协同作用下,2016年和1998年前夏西北太平洋异常反气旋均偏强,但前者的振幅弱于后者。在后夏,1998年西北太平洋对流层低层仍受异常反气旋控制,2016年则为异常气旋控制。