Variations in annual winter mean temperature in South China since 1736

Modern meteorological observations in South China from 1960 to 2009 show a strong correlation between winter temperatures and two snowfall parameters, the southern boundary of the snow and the number of snowy days. Based on this relationship, the variation in annual winter mean temperature in South China from 1736 to 2009 was reconstructed using data acquired from Chinese historical documents dating from the Qing dynasty, such as memos and local gazettes. The reconstructed time series were used to analyse variations in winter temperature in South China. Significant interannual and interdecadal changes were found. The maximum temperature difference between neighbouring years was 3.1 °C for 1958–2009 and 3.0 °C for 1736–1957, whereas the maximum temperature difference between adjacent decades was 0.8 °C for the 1960s–2000s and 0.6 °C for the 1740s–1950s. The 2000s was the warmest decade; the mean temperature was 1.6 °C higher than that of the 1870s, which was the coldest decade between the 1740s and the 2000s. The mean winter temperature was warmer in the 18th and 20th centuries and coldest in the 19th century.     

Annual precipitation in the Yellowstone National Park region since AD 1173

Cores and cross sections from 133 limber pine (Pinus flexilis James) and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco) at four sites were used to estimate annual (July to June) precipitation in the Yellowstone National Park region for the period from AD 1173 to 1998. Examination of the long-term record shows that the early 20th century was markedly wet compared to the previous 700 yr. Extreme wet and dry years within the instrumental period fall within the range of past variability, and the magnitude of the worst-case droughts of the 20th century (AD 1930s and 1950s) was likely equaled or exceeded on numerous occasions before AD 1900. Spectral analysis showed significant decadal to multidecadal precipitation variability. At times this lower frequency variability produces strong regime-like behavior in regional precipitation, with the potential for rapid, high-amplitude switching between predominately wet and predominately dry conditions. Over multiple time scales, strong Yellowstone region precipitation anomalies were almost always associated with spatially extensive events spanning various combinations of the central and southern U.S. Rockies, the northern U.S.-Southern Canadian Rockies and the Pacific Northwest.     

Labour market areas in Great Britain: Developments since 1961

Since employment problems vary widely between individual localities, the definition of local labour market areas is of considerable importance for employment policy. The paper describes the results of studies undertaken to identify changes in self-contained labour market areas (LMAs) throughout Great Britain between 1961 and 1971. LMAs are defined by the application of a gravity formula to commuter flows between areas. The number of LMAs fell by one third over the decade, reflecting longer average work journeys. LMAs tended to combine on stable and predictable lines, through the strengthening of their main previous commuter links. The studies also show marked contrasts in LMA patterns between the central and peripheral regions of Britain. Most of the conurbations comprise a number of separate LMAs (some of them extending far into the surrounding countryside) and thus cannot be regarded as unified labour markets. Over one half of the 25 largest LMAs are located outside the conurbations, representing large self-contained economic communities which are inadequately recognised in conventional geographical categories. The paper also notes recent changes in the Department of Employment's “travel to work areas” based on similar criteria. Finally, it seems likely that LMAs have continued to expand since 1971 as the result of interconnected developments in housing, employment and transport.     

About the observed and future changes in temperature extremes over India

An attempt is made in the present study to analyse observed and model simulated temperature extremes over Indian region. Daily maximum and minimum temperature data at 121 well-distributed stations for the period 1970–2003 have been used to study the observed changes in objectively defined values of temperature extremes. In addition, an assessment of future scenarios of temperature extremes associated with increase in the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases is done using simulations of a state-of-the-art regional climate modelling system known as PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies) performed to generate the climate for the present (1961–1990) and future projections for the period 2071–2100. Observational analysis done with 121 stations suggests the widespread warming through increase in intensity and frequency of hot events and also with decrease in frequency of cold events. More than 75% stations show decreasing trend in number of cold events and about 70% stations show increasing trend in hot events. Percentage of stations towards the warming through intensity indices of highest maximum temperature, lowest minimum temperature is 78 and 71% stations, respectively. Remaining stations show opposite trends, however, most of them are statistically insignificant. Observational analysis for India as a whole also shows similar results. Composite anomalies for monthly temperature extremes over two equal parts of the data period show increase (decrease) in the frequency of hot (cold) events for all months. In general, PRECIS simulations under both A2 and B2 scenarios indicate increase (decrease) in hot (cold) extremes towards the end of twenty-first century. Both show similar patterns, but the B2 scenario shows slightly lower magnitudes of the projected changes. Temperatures are likely to increase in entire calendar year, but the changes in winter season are expected to be prominent. Diurnal temperature range is expected to decrease in winter (JF) and pre-monsoon (MAM) months.     

Recent trends in pre-monsoon daily temperature extremes over India

Extreme climate and weather events are increasingly being recognized as key aspects of climate change. Pre-monsoon season (March–May) is the hottest part of the year over almost the entire South Asian region, in which hot weather extremes including heat waves are recurring natural hazards having serious societal impacts, particularly on human health. In the present paper, recent trends in extreme temperature events for the pre-monsoon season have been studied using daily data on maximum and minimum temperatures over a well-distributed network of 121 stations for the period 1970–2005. For this purpose, time series of extreme temperature events have been constructed for India as a whole and seven homogeneous regions, viz., Western Himalaya (WH), Northwest (NW), Northeast (NE), North Central (NC), East coast (EC), West coast (WC) and Interior Peninsula (IP).     

Reconstruction of the Changjiang River tidal-limit movement since the ninth century AD

The tide can now propagate upstream for more than 600 km from the Changjiang River estuary to hinterland,which is rare in the world. In China,information and records reflecting tidal limit and its movement in the Changjiang River can be found from some ancient books,literary works and local chronicles. At the end of the 3rd and the beginning of the 4th century AD, the tide limit of the Changjiang River reached the upstream of Chaisang(now named Jiujiang in Jiangxi Province). At the early 9th century,the tide limit in the dry season retreated to the Penpukou in Jiujiang. In the last ten years of the 13th century,the tidal limit moved back to the Xiaogushan Mountain near the border between Anhui Province and Jiangxi Province. By the middle of the 20th century,the modern researchers generally agreed that the tidal limit retreated to Datong in Anhui Province. Before the main stream of the Changjiang River was cut off by large-scale water conservancy projects,the tide limit had retreated seaward continuously. From the 3rd decade of the 9th century to the last decade of the 13th century,the tide limit moved downstream 64 km during the 470 years,with an average annual rate of 0.136km/a. During the 670 years from the end of the 13th century to the middle of the 20th century,the tide limit had moved downstream 170 km,with an average annual rate of 0.254 km/a,almost twice as much as that of the previous period. We suggest the climate change accounted for the different retreat rate of the tidal limit between the two periods discussed. In addition,a recent study found that during the extremely dry periods,when the discharge of Jiujiang station was about 8440 m³/s,the tidal limit reached near Jiujiang. In the years when the water conservancy project on the main stream of the Changjiang River began to store water,the tide limit actually returned to the previous position of the middle Tang Dynasty,i.e. 1100 years ago.     

1961年以来海河流域干旱时空变化特征分析

以干旱易发区海河流域为例,利用流域内及其周边地区58个气象站点1961-2010年逐日气象观测数据,结合累积相对湿润度指数和模糊集对评价法,考虑了干旱的累积效应以及评价标准等级边界的模糊性和评价因子的时程分配,分析了海河流域干旱时空变化特征。结果表明:①近50年来流域主要干旱类型为中旱和重旱,平均面积分别约为7.30万km2和7.78万km2,重旱面积呈现出显著的增加趋势;②近25年来,重旱易发区范围表现出扩张的态势,1985-2010年重旱易发区面积达到14.9万km2,为1961-1985年的1.6倍。     

公元9世纪以来长江潮区界的迁移过程重建

海潮从长江口沿江上溯,可达内陆600km以上的潮区界,为世界大河所少见。中国古人就对这一现象有所感知,在一些文学著作与地方志中可找到长江潮区界及其变化的信息。在公元3世纪末、4世纪初,长江的潮波已越过柴桑(今江西九江);在公元9世纪早期,长江枯水期的潮区界已经退到九江的湓浦口;在13世纪最后的十几年,长江潮区界下移至皖赣交界的小孤山附近。从公元9世纪早期到13世纪晚期的470年间,潮区界下移了64 km,年均为0.136km/a。20世纪中叶以来的学者普遍认为,长江的潮区界又下移至安徽铜陵的大通镇。可见,长江干流在尚未被大型水利工程截断以前,长江潮区界持续向下游移动。在13世纪末至20世纪中叶的670年中,长江潮区界下移170km,年均为0.254km/a,速率几乎是前一时期的2倍。分析表明,潮区界下移速率和三角洲向海的淤长有关,还可能受气候变化的重要影响。对比发现,在长江干流大型水利工程开始蓄水的几年后、九江站流量约8440m³/s的特大枯水时期,潮汐引起的水位上涨影响可达九江附近、即1100多年前中唐时代的潮区界位置。     

Central England temperature since AD 1850: the potential of stable carbon isotopes in British oak trees to reconstruct past summer temperatures

In regions with seasonal temperate climatic regimes, tree growth is rarely controlled by any single environmental factor. As a consequence, the development of robust palaeoclimate reconstructions has proved challenging. Tree‐ring stable carbon isotope ratios (δ¹³C), however, are controlled primarily by photosynthetic rate, not by net growth. Therefore, at sites where climatic controls on tree‐ring growth are not strongly expressed, a robust (isotopic) palaeoclimate signal may still potentially be preserved. This hypothesis was tested using a 160‐year record of δ¹³C measured from the pooled latewood cellulose of six Quercus petraea L. (sessile oak) trees from Allt Lan‐las in West Wales, UK. Raw δ¹³C values were corrected for changes in the isotopic ratio of atmospheric carbon dioxide and for changes in the behaviour of trees due to the increasing availability of atmospheric CO₂ since AD 1850. Strong correlations with local summer temperature and sunshine are reported, and also with the Central England Temperature record over the full length of the isotopic chronology (AD 1850–2010) (r = 0.69, P < 0.001). We conclude that tree‐ring stable isotopes can be used to extract strong palaeoclimate signals even from oak trees growing in a temperate maritime climate. This demonstrates the potential for extracting robust palaeoclimatic information from the very long and well‐replicated oak chronologies which have been developed in western and central Europe primarily for dating rather than palaeoclimatic research purposes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A chironomid-based reconstruction of summer temperatures in NW Iceland since AD 1650

Few studies currently exist that aim to validate a proxy chironomid-temperature reconstruction with instrumental temperature measurements. We used a reconstruction from a chironomid percentage abundance data set to produce quantitative summer temperature estimates since AD 1650 for NW Iceland through a transfer function approach, and validated the record against instrumental temperature measurements from Stykkishólmur in western Iceland. The core was dated through Pb-210, Cs-137 and tephra analyses (Hekla 1693) which produced a well-constrained dating model across the whole study period. Little catchment disturbance, as shown through geochemical (Itrax) and loss-on-ignition data, throughout the period further reinforce the premise that the chironomids were responding to temperature and not other catchment or within-lake variables. Particularly cold phases were identified between AD 1683–1710, AD 1765–1780 and AD 1890–1917, with relative drops in summer temperatures in the order of 1.5–2°C. The timing of these cold phases agree well with other evidence of cooler temperatures, notably increased extent of Little Ice Age (LIA) glaciers. Our evidence suggests that the magnitude of summer temperature cooling (1.5–2°C) was enough to force LIA Icelandic glaciers into their maximum Holocene extent, which is in accordance with previous modelling experiments for an Icelandic ice cap (Langjökull).     

Hydro-electricity in the Romanian Carpathians

Hydropower developments are of major importance for the national economy and constitute one of the most impressive symbols of modernisation in the mountains of Romania. Development dates back to the turn of the century and comprehensive surveys were carried out during the 1930s; but construction on a sustained basis has occurred only during the postwar period, involving 118 water storages and some 5700 MW of installed power, a quarter of all installed electricpower in the country. The paper provides an outline of the programme, as a contribution to the wider electrification programme, and considers the impact of these developments in the Carpathians where there is much evidence of integrated rural planning to combine electricity generation with forestry and tourism. The prospects for further development in the context of a market economy are considered in the light of both economic and ecological issues.Because of translation problems this paper was written by the editor from notes submitted by the authors. Grateful acknowledgement is made for additional information provided by Dr. Ion Zavoianu     

Modelling temperature extremes in the Limpopo province: bivariate time-varying threshold excess approach

Natural Hazards - Aiming at the stability of a highway slope reinforced with anti-sliding piles, the mechanical behaviour of the inclined pile-soil arch in a soil slope reinforced with anti-sliding...     

中国北方Ｃ３植物碳同位素组成与年均温度关系

本文对不同温度条件下生长的藜、独行菜、魁蓟和平车前4种常见的C3植物的δ^13C进行了分析，结果发现这4种C3植物的δ^13C组成都表现出随年均温度下降而变重的趋势，其中藜和独行菜的碳同位素组成对温度变化的响应相对要较其他两种植物强烈得多，同时还发现藜、独行菜和魁蓟的δ^13C组成与年均温度有显著线性相关，平车前碳同位素组成与年均温度 没有显著的相关性。表明藜、独行菜和魁蓟的 δ^13C组成可作为年均温度的替代性指标，平车前的δ^13C 组成不能作为年均温度的替代性指标。     

1960年以来青海湖沉积物粒度的时空分布及其控制因素

对大型湖泊盆地沉积物粒度组成进行研究,有助于解读全球致密油气和页岩油气勘探开发与其记录的古气候信息。 文章对青海湖沉积物粒度时空分布进行了详细的研究,通过采集覆盖大部分湖区的27根近现代沉积岩芯,并对湖心的三根 典型沉积岩芯进行了137Cs测定获取沉积岩芯的年龄;基于磁化率地层年龄模式,建立了整个湖区沉积岩芯的年代框架。粒 度分析结果显示,青海湖岩芯沉积物的粒度分布呈多峰,以细颗粒沉积为主,其中粉砂含量60%~70%,粘粒组分为10%~ 35%,砂粒组分低于20%。青海湖沉积物的粒度变化在空间上相对较复杂,中值粒径呈现明显的砂岛附近、西部和西南湖 区高,其他湖区低的特征。在时间上,大体上自1960年到2017年呈现变粗的趋势,砂粒组分增多,粘粒组分减少。这些粒 度的时空变化可能是受风砂活动、流域土壤侵蚀、河流径流变化、湖平面变化和人类活动共同作用而成。     

1961—2005年河西走廊东部极端气温事件变化

利用1961—2005年河西走廊东部五站的逐日气温资料,通过百分位法定义了不同台站的逐日极端高、低温阈值,研究了河西走廊东部近45a来极端气温事件变化的空间分布以及时间变化特征.结果表明:在空间分布上,河西走廊东部极端最高气温总阈值民勤出现了暖中心,乌鞘岭出现了冷中心;极端最低气温总阈值暖中心出现在武威,冷中心出现在乌鞘岭;极端最高、低气温空间分布与其对应阈值的空间分布类似;河西走廊东部极端低温频数南北部都呈现减少趋势,而极端高温频数在南部古浪和北部靠近沙漠区的民勤呈现减少趋势,其它地区为增加趋势.时间变化上,河西走廊东部极端最高、低气温总体都呈增温趋势,增温幅度极端最低气温比极端最高气温明显;极端最高气温频数总体呈略增加趋势,极端最低气温频数呈明显的减少趋势;极端最高、低气温和极端最高、低气温频数都是6～7a和9～10a周期反映明显;极端最高、低气温增温以及极端高温频数增加和极端低温频数减少都发生了突变现象.     

Reconstruction of cropland change in European countries using integrated multisource data since AD 1800

Credible historical land use/cover data are very important for past global change research. This study generates a set of integrated reconstruction methods based on multisource data and produces a new set of improved historical cropland data sets in Europe over the past 200 years. For AD 2000, FAO data, existing research results and statistical data are integrated. For AD 1900, a method of integrating two sets of independent historical agricultural land data by correction and validation and supplemented by other historical cropland data are developed. For AD 1850 and 1800, a methodological scheme of diversified proxy integrative technology and methods based on multisource data is constructed. In this new data set, quantitative reconstructions for AD 1900, 1850 and 1800 are improved to account for 100, 78 and 57% of all European countries, respectively. The reconstruction results show that each region in Europe has been in different stage of historical agricultural development. More than 86% of the countries’ cropland area and its proportion peaked in AD 1900 or did not exceed the data for AD 2000. Specifically, a high reclamation zone gradually formed from France to Ukraine, in which every country’s cropland fraction was ≥40% during AD 1800–1900. From AD 1900–2000, the highly cultivated region contracted, and the centre of higher cropland proportions shifted to eastern Europe and Poland, Czechia and Hungary. The cropland area was systematically underestimated by HYDE3.2, with a relative difference ratio of −20 to −30% between HYDE3.2 and this study. Historical empirical data were used for only 32% of countries in HYDE3.2. This method of multiproxy integrated reconstruction is applicable to other regions of the world and it would be worth attempting to apply it to earlier historical European cropland data sets in the future.     

1960年以来青海湖沉积物粒度的时空分布及其控制因素

对大型湖泊盆地沉积物粒度组成进行研究，有助于解读全球致密油气和页岩油气勘探开发与其记录的古气候信息。 文章对青海湖沉积物粒度时空分布进行了详细的研究，通过采集覆盖大部分湖区的27根近现代沉积岩芯，并对湖心的三根 典型沉积岩芯进行了137Cs测定获取沉积岩芯的年龄；基于磁化率地层年龄模式，建立了整个湖区沉积岩芯的年代框架。粒 度分析结果显示，青海湖岩芯沉积物的粒度分布呈多峰，以细颗粒沉积为主，其中粉砂含量60%~70%，粘粒组分为10%~ 35%，砂粒组分低于20%。青海湖沉积物的粒度变化在空间上相对较复杂，中值粒径呈现明显的砂岛附近、西部和西南湖 区高，其他湖区低的特征。在时间上，大体上自1960年到2017年呈现变粗的趋势，砂粒组分增多，粘粒组分减少。这些粒 度的时空变化可能是受风砂活动、流域土壤侵蚀、河流径流变化、湖平面变化和人类活动共同作用而成。     

Water temperature behaviour in the River Loire since 1976 and 1881

Analysis of monthly mean river temperatures, recorded on an hourly basis in the middle reaches of the Loire since 1976, allows reconstruction by multiple linear regression of the annual, spring and summer water temperatures from equivalent information on air temperatures and river discharge. Since 1881, the average annual and summer temperatures of the Loire have risen by approximately 0.8?°C, this increase accelerating since the late 1980s due to the rise in air temperature and also to lower discharge rates. In addition, the thermal regime in the Orleans to Blois reach is considerably affected by the inflow of groundwater from the Calcaires de Beauce aquifer, as shown by the summer energy balance. To cite this article: F. Moatar, J. Gailhard, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

白龙江流域上游径流年内分配变化规律分析

在气候变化与人类活动双重影响下,河川径流的年内分配特征随着发生变化。本文根据白龙江上游4个站点的实测月径流量资料,分析了年内分配不均匀性,集中程度与变化幅度等指标。结果表明:在1965~1969年、1971~1984年和2002~2006年,径流年内分配不均匀性较强;白龙江上游集中度较小,集中度随时间的增加均呈现降低趋势。流域自上游向下游,在不同年代集中期均表现为逐渐缩短的变化趋势。Cm、Cm-max和ΔR随时间增加而减小,Cm-min随时间增加而增大。总体上看,随着时间的推移,白龙江上游径流年内分配不均匀性越来越低,逐渐由不均匀向相对均匀转变。