隐伏断层在强震砂土液化中的作用——以2008年汶川Mw 7.9地震为例

2008年汶川Mw7.9地震的强地面震动在龙门山前地区造成大量的砂土液化、喷砂冒水等地震灾害现象。震后野外调查发现,砂土液化点主要分布于地下水位只有几米深的山前河流的低阶地处,以大面积砾性土液化为特征,约58%的液化点位于距北川断层20~35km的范围内。对喷水高度及喷水过程进行了详细记录,喷水高度与峰值加速度并没有明显的相关性,喷水高度异常点(2m)集中于山前断裂系统近地表投影处。汶川地震中喷水高度异常、砾性土液化的位置与山前断裂系统的吻合性说明,沉积盆地内的地质构造可能在砂土液化强度和与震动相关的地震灾害方面起到促进作用,所以在类似的地质和水文环境中,除主震的断层错动外,应考虑地质构造在地震危险性评估和建筑物抗震设计中的重要作用。     

Seismic hazard analysis of Laoag City,Northern Philippines for liquefaction potential assessment

A seismic hazard analysis was conducted in Laoag City, Northern Philippines to determine the design ground motion for liquefaction potential assessment of the area. Because the hazard analysis was done within the framework of liquefaction potential assessment, only those earthquakes with magnitude–distance combinations that are capable of generating liquefaction were considered in the study. Both probabilistic and deterministic approaches were used in the analysis. From the results of the probabilistic analysis, seismic hazard curves were generated from which the ground motion with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50years was obtained. This was then modified in consideration of the soft soil condition in the study area. Deaggregation was performed to determine the most likely earthquake to generate the said level of ground shaking.     

Evaluation of seismic soil-liquefaction at Guwahati city

Great earthquakes in the past (e.g. 1869 Cachar earthquake, 1897 great Assam earthquake) have caused large scale damage and ground liquefaction in the Guwahati city. Moreover, seismologists are of opinion that a great earthquake might occur in the unruptured segment of the North-East Himalaya that is near to Guwahati city. In this paper, the liquefaction hazard due to these events have been simulated. The obtained results are in general agreement with the reported damages due to the past earthquakes. The central part of the city (i.e. Dispur, GS road), that has large thickness of soft soil deposit and shallow ground water table, is highly vulnerable to liquefaction.     

Evaluating the effects of ground motion parameters on response spectra in Uttarakhand Himalayas,India

Uttarakhand, a state of India, is located in seismically active Himalayan region and in the proximity of plate boundaries. The effects of important ground motion parameters like magnitude, distance, and local geology and site conditions on acceleration response spectra are examined in Uttarakhand Himalayas in this work. A total of 447 strong ground motion histories (horizontal and vertical) from 42 earthquakes were selected. The results show that the shape of the acceleration response spectra is influenced by the local site conditions and regional geology. The studies are carried out for two categories of sites, i.e., rock sites and soft soil sites. The maximum average horizontal spectral amplification for rock sites is 2.7 at 0.1 s, while for soft soil sites, it is found to be 3.2 at 0.2 s. In the same way, the maximum average vertical spectral amplification for rock is found to be 2.7 at 0.1 s, while for soft soil, it is found to be 2.95 at 0.1 s. The average spectral amplification in vertical component also shifts from low period (rock) to high period (soft soil). The level of spectra increases with decrease in distance for rock sites as well as soft soil sites. When comparing different magnitude earthquakes in different geological conditions, the response spectra are found to follow each other up to 0.04 s, while for period greater than 0.04 s, the spectra of higher magnitude earthquake is observed on the higher side. For soft soil sites, spectra from different magnitude earthquakes are observed to follow each other up to 0.1 s, beyond which they get separated.     

Site-specific earthquake response study for hazard assessment in Kolkata city,India

The assessment of local site effects on seismic ground motions is of great importance in earthquake engineering practice. Several destructive earthquakes in the past have demonstrated that the amplification of ground motion and associated damage to structures due to local site conditions is a significant consideration in earthquake hazard analysis. A recent paper published in this journal highlights the hazard posed by earthquakes in the megacity of Kolkata in India due to its seismic and geological settings. The seismic hazard assessment study speculates that the deep alluvial deposit in the city may increase the seismic hazard probably due to the amplification of the seismic energies. This paper focuses on the seismic response studies of the various soil strata (i.e. for local subsurface conditions) obtained from various construction sites in the city for predicted earthquake. It is very well recognized that site response studies (a part of seismic microhazard zonation for urban areas) are the first step towards performance-based foundation design or seismic risk analysis and mitigation strategy. One of the problems for carrying out site-specific study in Kolkata is the lack of recorded strong motion data in the city. Hence, this paper outlines a methodology to carry out site-specific study, where no strong motion data or seismic data are available. The methodology uses wavelet-based spectrum compatibility approach to generate synthetic earthquake motions and equivalent linear method for seismic site response analysis. The Mega City of Kolkata has been considered to explain the methodology. Seismic hazard zonation map by the Bureau of Indian Standards classifies the City of Kolkata as moderate seismic zone (Zone III) with a zone factor 0.16. On the other hand, GSHAP(Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program) map which is based on 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years specifies a maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 1.6 m/s² (0.163 g) for this region. In the present study, the seismic response has been carried out based on GSHAP. The results of the analysis indicate the amplification of ground motion in the range of 4.46–4.82 with the fundamental period ranging from 0.81 to 1.17 s. Furthermore, the maximum spectral accelerations vary in the range of 0.78–0.95 g.     

Liquefaction-induced settlement,site effects and damage in the vicinity of Yalova City during the 1999 Izmit earthquake,Turkey

Yalova City (Turkey) is in a tectonically active location that is particularly affected by the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone. Magnitudes 7.4 and 7.2 earthquakes in 1999 caused great destruction in Yalova. The heavy damage to buildings and other civil engineering structures was mainly due to liquefaction-induced settlement and site effects such as resonance and amplification. In the first phase of this study, the soil liquefaction potential index (PL) and the induced soil settlement were estimated. In the second phase, the effects on sites in Yalova soil were investigated using microtremor and earthquake data. The fundamental periods and amplification in soft soil were compared with microtremor data and strong ground motion records obtained by a local array of eight accelerograph stations deployed in Yalova. Thirty-seven ‘single site’ ambient noise measurements were taken in a dense grid of points covering the centre of the city. A comparison between fundamental periods obtained from strong ground motion records and from microtremor measurements showed similarities, in the 0.1–5 Hz range. Finally, soil liquefaction and amplification (or resonance) were divided into regions according to the extent of damage and the geotechnical/geophysical results.     

Seismic hazard and site-specific ground motion for typical ports of Gujarat

Economic importance of major ports is well known, and if ports are located in seismically active regions, then site-specific seismic hazard studies are essential to mitigate the seismic risk of the ports. Seismic design of port sites and related structures can be accomplished in three steps that include assessment of regional seismicity, geotechnical hazards, and soil structure interaction analysis. In the present study, site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is performed to identify the seismic hazard associated with four typical port sites of Gujarat state (bounded by 20°–25.5°N and 68°–75°E) of India viz. Kandla, Mundra, Hazira, and Dahej ports. The primary aim of the study is to develop consistent seismic ground motion for the structures within the four port sites for different three levels of ground shaking, i.e., operating level earthquake (72 years return period), contingency level earthquake (CLE) (475 year return period), and maximum considered earthquake (2,475 year return period). The geotechnical characterization for each port site is carried out using available geotechnical data. Shear wave velocities of the soil profile are estimated from SPT blow counts using various empirical formulae. Seismicity of the Gujarat region is modeled through delineating the 40 fault sources based on the seismotectonic setting. The Gujarat state is divided into three regions, i.e., Kachchh, Saurashtra, and Mainland Gujarat, and regional recurrence relations are assigned in the form of Gutenberg-Richter parameters in order to calculate seismic hazard associated with each port site. The horizontal component of ground acceleration for three levels of ground shaking is estimated by using different ground motion attenuation relations (GMAR) including one country-specific GMAR for Peninsular India. Uncertainty in seismic hazard computations is handled by using logic tree approach to develop uniform hazard spectra for 5% damping which are consistent with the specified three levels of ground shaking. Using recorded acceleration time history of Bhuj 2001 earthquake as the input time motion, synthetic time histories are generated to match the developed designed response spectra to study site-specific responses of port sites during different levels of ground shaking. It is observed that the Mundra and Kandla port sites are most vulnerable sites for seismic hazard as estimated CLE ground motion is in order of 0.79 and 0.48 g for Mundra and Kandla port sites, respectively. Hazira and Dahej port sites have comparatively less hazard with estimated CLE ground motion of 0.17 and 0.11 g, respectively. The ground amplification factor is observed at all sites which ranges from 1.3 to 2.0 for the frequency range of 1.0–2.7 Hz. The obtained spectral accelerations for the three levels of ground motions and obtained transfer functions for each port sites are compared with provisions made in Indian seismic code IS:1893-Part 1 (2002). The outcome of present study is recommended for further performance-based design to evaluate the seismic response of the port structures with respect to various performance levels.     

高原季节性冻土区砂土液化探讨——以阿克陶MS6.7地震为例

2016年11月25日新疆阿克陶县木吉乡发生MS6.7地震,发震构造为公格尔山拉张系北端的木吉断裂,断裂总长度超过100 km,以右旋走滑为主兼有一定的拉张分量。文章在对震区进行了初步的地震地质灾害调查,总结砂土液化和地裂缝在高原季节性冻土地区的分布及发育特点的基础上,发现:1)在研究区Ⅰ维日麻村的砂土液化主要沿原有泉眼或沿地裂缝发育,沿泉眼形成的砂土液化其喷砂锥的覆盖面积达36.1 m2,占总液化面积的60%,研究区Ⅱ布拉克村的砂土液化则主要是沿草甸的根系喷出,在地表形成大面积的最新涌水结冻特征;2)对研究区Ⅱ布拉克村地裂缝的深度进行统计,反演出区域冻土层厚度,结合探槽揭露的地层剖面,推断冻土层发生大面积地裂缝是因为地震引起冻土层下部融土层发生砂土液化导致土层变形失稳,从而使冻土层发生形变产生一系列规律性的地裂缝。     

Seismic microzonation of a nuclear power plant site with detailed geotechnical,geophysical and site effect studies

This paper highlights the seismic microzonation carried out for a nuclear power plant site. Nuclear power plants are considered to be one of the most important and critical structures designed to withstand all natural disasters. Seismic microzonation is a process of demarcating a region into individual areas having different levels of various seismic hazards. This will help in identifying regions having high seismic hazard which is vital for engineering design and land-use planning. The main objective of this paper is to carry out the seismic microzonation of a nuclear power plant site situated in the east coast of South India, based on the spatial distribution of the hazard index value. The hazard index represents the consolidated effect of all major earthquake hazards and hazard influencing parameters. The present work will provide new directions for assessing the seismic hazards of new power plant sites in the country. Major seismic hazards considered for the evaluation of the hazard index are (1) intensity of ground shaking at bedrock, (2) site amplification, (3) liquefaction potential and (4) the predominant frequency of the earthquake motion at the surface. The intensity of ground shaking in terms of peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) was estimated for the study area using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches with logic tree methodology. The site characterization of the study area has been carried out using the multichannel analysis of surface waves test and available borehole data. One-dimensional ground response analysis was carried out at major locations within the study area for evaluating PHA and spectral accelerations at the ground surface. Based on the standard penetration test data, deterministic as well as probabilistic liquefaction hazard analysis has been carried out for the entire study area. Finally, all the major earthquake hazards estimated above, and other significant parameters representing local geology were integrated using the analytic hierarchy process and hazard index map for the study area was prepared. Maps showing the spatial variation of seismic hazards (intensity of ground shaking, liquefaction potential and predominant frequency) and hazard index are presented in this work.     

Seismic hazard assessment of Chennai city considering local site effects

Chennai city suffered moderate tremors during the 2001 Bhuj and Pondicherry earthquakes and the 2004 Sumatra earthquake. After the Bhuj earthquake, Indian Standard IS: 1893 was revised and Chennai city was upgraded from zone II to zone III which leads to a substantial increase of the design ground motion parameters. Therefore, a comprehensive study is carried out to assess the seismic hazard of Chennai city based on a deterministic approach. The seismicity and seismotectonic details within a 100 km radius of the study area have been considered. The one-dimensional ground response analysis was carried out for 38 representative sites by the equivalent linear method using the SHAKE91 program to estimate the ground motion parameters considering the local site effects. The shear wave velocity profile was inferred from the corrected blow counts and it was verified with the Multichannel Analysis of Surface Wave (MASW) test performed for a representative site. The seismic hazard is represented in terms of characteristic site period and Spectral Acceleration Ratio (SAR) contours for the entire city. It is found that structures with low natural period undergo significant amplification mostly in the central and southern parts of Chennai city due to the presence of deep soil sites with clayey or sandy deposits and the remaining parts undergo marginal amplification.     

Application of Hidden Markov Model for avalanche danger simulations for road sectors in North-West Himalaya

Seismic hazard assessment is the key tool for rational planning, safety and design of infrastructures in seismically vulnerable regions. Gujarat is the only state in peninsular India with the maximum seismic hazard of large shallow earthquakes originating from intra-plate seismicity. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) of Gujarat is carried out in this paper. Three seismogenic sources, namely Kutch, Saurashtra and Mainland Gujarat, are considered, and seismicity parameters are estimated separately for each region taking into account the completeness of the available earthquake data. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) of the horizontal component and spectral acceleration at specific periods are considered as the intensity measures. Ground motion predictive equation chosen was reported to be based on simulated ground motions and verified against the strong motion records in the study region. Results are reported for the 17 major cities at the bedrock and also for the soil sites. Apart from hazard curves, 2475 and 475 years of return periods are considered for the PGA and uniform hazard spectra (UHS). The results are compared with the present recommendations of Indian Standards. Key observations include (1) Indian Standards underpredict PGA in the entire Gujarat when the soil sites are considered and in a few cities even at the bedrock; (2) amplification of PGA (or short period hazard) on account of soil sites should be included in the Indian Standard, which is currently absent; (3) shape of the UHS indicates that a separate amplification is required at the hyperbolic portion; and (4) ratio of 2475–475 years of PGA, which is considered 2.0 in Indian Standard, should be reduced to 1.5. Time-dependent recurrence model is also included in this paper and compared with conventional PSHA. General observations include that (1) hazard may increase significantly on account of time dependency; (2) this also influences the disaggregation and in turn the selection of ground motions; and (3) time since last earthquake significantly influences the extent of the effect of time dependency.     

Assessment of seismic hazard and liquefaction potential of Gujarat based on probabilistic approaches

Gujarat is one of the fastest-growing states of India with high industrial activities coming up in major cities of the state. It is indispensable to analyse seismic hazard as the region is considered to be most seismically active in stable continental region of India. The Bhuj earthquake of 2001 has caused extensive damage in terms of causality and economic loss. In the present study, the seismic hazard of Gujarat evaluated using a probabilistic approach with the use of logic tree framework that minimizes the uncertainties in hazard assessment. The peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral acceleration (Sa) values were evaluated for 10 and 2?% probability of exceedance in 50?years. Two important geotechnical effects of earthquakes, site amplification and liquefaction, are also evaluated, considering site characterization based on site classes. The liquefaction return period for the entire state of Gujarat is evaluated using a performance-based approach. The maps of PHA and PGA values prepared in this study are very useful for seismic hazard mitigation of the region in future.     

Macroseismic field observations of 18 September 2011 Sikkim earthquake

A shallow-focus damaging earthquake of magnitude 6.9?Mw struck the Sikkim Himalaya, north-east India, on 18 September 2011 at 12:40:48 UTC (06:10:48PM IST). The epicentre was located north-west of Chungthang on Indo-Nepal border of Sikkim Himalaya. The earthquake was widely felt in northern India and caused widespread damage to poorly built and framed structures in Sikkim region, northern Bihar, eastern Nepal, southern Bhutan and part of Tibet adjoining Sikkim Himalaya. A lot of secondary effects in the form of landslides, rockfalls and landslide lake outburst flood were caused due to strong shaking effect of the earthquake. Maximum intensity IX according to the European Macroseismic Scale-98 was observed in the meizoseismal zone surrounding Chungthang village. Asymmetrical distribution and heterogeneous damage pattern demonstrate intensity attenuation characteristics of the region. Although the regional tectonic framework of Sikkim region indicates compressional thrust tectonics regime, according to CMT fault-plane solution this earthquake involved predominantly strike-slip motion on a steep fault. Unlike Nepal and north-west Himalaya where microseismicity and large earthquakes indicate thrust mechanism, this Sikkim earthquake suggests that strike-slip principal component may imply transcurrent deformation.     

Dynamic analysis of ground with rigorous use of strain dependency and its application to seismic microzonation of alluvial plane

Seismic microzonation is one of the most important measures to mitigate earthquake hazards in urban areas. Because the ground motion varies significantly with the subsurface geology, it is needed for microzonation to account as much as possible for the local soil conditions. Noteworthy is that nonlinear deformation properties of soil play essential roles in amplification of strong ground motion. It is desired furthermore to focus on the expected damage extent in addition to the calculated maximum acceleration and/or velocity. The present study first developed a computer code for one-dimensional response analysis of ground that reasonably takes into account nonlinear dynamic soil properties. Second, correlations between the calculated ground motion and damage extent were obtained by examining seismic damages during the past earthquakes. By combining these two issues, seismic microzonation was carried out, and detailed damage distribution was assessed. The product of this study covers not only the damage caused by ground shaking but also liquefaction problem and lifeline damage.     

液化与非液化场地加速度反应谱对比

通过对2011年新西兰发生的6.3级地震中获取的硬土场地、软土场地和液化场地强震记录实测资料进行分析,研究包括3种类型场地的地震动特征及其相互关系。分析的强震记录为震中距小于50 km,且峰值大于0.05g的23个场地上的加速度记录,其中含3个硬场地、11个软场地和9个液化场地。3种类型场地上的放大系数谱对比分析表明,硬土场地、软土场地和液化场地上的地震动特征具有明显区别,三者层次清晰,差别显著,从地震动表现上液化场地已构成一个与常规场地并列的独立单元;液化场地减少地震动高频分量但同时对低频分量显著放大,与非液化场地相比,液化场地可使其上短周期结构反应减小一半,但同时可使其上长周期结构反应放大2.5～5.0倍;土层的液化对此次地震中克莱斯特彻奇市中心CTV大楼的破坏应有很大影响,大楼自振周期约为0.7 s,地震中土层液化使场地加速度反应谱卓越周期由0.1～0.3 s增到0.5～1.0 s,与大楼的自振周期趋于吻合,加重了大楼震害。以此为鉴,按现有规范中地震动的设计方法,如遇液化场地将对长周期结构给出明显危险的结果,因此从振动角度今后进行结构抗震设计时,可液化场地上的地震动应给予特殊考虑。     

Assessment of predominant frequencies using ambient vibration in the Kachchh region of western India: implications for earthquake hazards

The Kachchh region is the second most seismically active region in India after the Himalaya. One of the disastrous Indian earthquakes of the millennium was the Bhuj earthquake of January 26, 2001, which caused about 14,000 casualties and huge property damage. The main reason for such devastation is due to lack of earthquake awareness and poor construction practices. Hence, an increase in the knowledge and awareness, based on improved seismic hazard assessment, is required to mitigate damage due to an earthquake. Natural predominant ground frequencies have been investigated in the Kachchh region of western India using ambient vibrations. The horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio technique has been applied to estimate the predominant frequency at 126 sites. The ambient vibration measurements were conducted for about 1 h at each site in the continuous mode recording at 100 samples/s. We have validated the estimated predominant frequency with earthquake data recorded at six broadband stations in the region. It has been observed that geological time period has a significant effect on predominant frequency of the ground. The estimated predominant frequencies vary from 0.24 to 2.25 Hz for the Quaternary, 0.41–2.34 Hz for the Tertiary, 0.32–4.91 Hz for the Cretaceous, and 0.39–8.0 Hz for the Jurassic/Mesozoic. In the Deccan trap, it varies from 1.30 to 3.80 Hz. We found distinct variation of predominant frequencies of sites associated with hard rock and soft soil. The predominant frequencies were related to the thickness of the sediments, which are deduced by other geophysical and geological methods in the region. Our results suggest that frequencies of the region reveals the site characteristics that can be considered for studying the seismic risks to evolve a plan for disaster risk mitigation for the region.     

Do static stress changes of a moderate‐magnitude earthquake significantly modify the regional seismic hazard? Hints from the L'Aquila 2009 normal‐faulting earthquake (Mw 6.3, central Italy)

We investigated the Coulomb stress changes in the active faults surrounding a moderate‐magnitude normal‐faulting earthquake (2009 L'Aquila, Mw 6.3) and the associated variations in the expected ground motion on regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps. We show that the static stress variations can locally increase the seismic hazard by modifying the expected mean recurrence time on neighbouring faults by up to ~290 years, with associated variations in the probability of occurrence of the maximum expected earthquake of up to ~2%. Our findings suggest that the increase in seismic hazard on neighbouring faults following moderate‐magnitude earthquakes is probably not sufficient to necessitate systematic upgrades of regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps, but must be considered to better address and schedule strategies for local‐scale mitigation of seismic risk.     

Equivalent-Linear Seismic Ground Response Analysis of Some Typical Sites in Mumbai

Any earthquake event is associated with a rupture mechanism at the source, propagation of seismic waves through underlying rock and finally these waves travel through the soil layers to the particular site of interest. The bedrock motion is significantly modified at the ground surface due to the presence of local soil layers above the bedrock beneath the site of interest. The estimation of the amplifications in ground response due to the local soil sites is a complex problem to the designers and the problem is more important for mega cities like Mumbai in India, where huge population may get affected due to devastations of earthquake. In the present study, the effect of local soil sites in modifying ground response is studied by performing one dimensional equivalent-linear ground response analysis for some of the typical Mumbai soil sites. Field borelog data of some typical sites in Mumbai city viz. Mangalwadi site, Walkeswar site, BJ Marg near Pandhari Chawl site are considered in this study. The ground responses are observed for range of input motions and the results are presented in terms of surface acceleration time history, ratio of shear stress to vertical effective stress versus time, acceleration response spectrum, Fourier amplitude ratio versus frequency etc. The typical amplifications of ground accelerations considering four strong ground motions with wide variation of low to high MHA, frequency contents and durations are obtained. Results show that MHA, bracketed duration, frequency content have significant effects on the amplification of seismic accelerations for typical 2001 Bhuj motion. The peak ground acceleration amplification factors are found to be about 2.50 for Mangalwadi site, 2.60 for Walkeswar site and 3.45 for BJ Marg site using 2001 Bhuj input motion. The response spectrum along various soil layers are obtained which will be useful for designers for earthquake resistant design of geotechnical structures in Mumbai for similar sites in the absence of site specific data.     

Three-Dimensional Interpolation and Lithofacies Analysis of Granular Composition Data for Earthquake-Engineering Characterization of Shallow Soil

In Japan, many major cities are located on tectonic basins which are surrounded by faults and underlain by soft alluvial materials. Because these areas are subject to earthquake damages, it is important to determine their seismic engineering characteristics. Geotechnical databases which contain many borehole logs are useful information sources for this type of analysis. Each datum stored in the database has a value or an attribute, and its location is irregular in both horizontal and vertical directions. A new interpolation method based on the optimization principle is proposed here to deal with such three-dimensionally distributed data. Susceptibility of unconsolidated ground to liquefaction is known to be related to the content of loose and saturated sand. The mixture ratio of several soil types in a deposit, i.e., granular composition, is strongly influenced by the sedimentary environment. There are two numerical methods: the optimization principle method (OPM) used to determine three-dimensional distribution of granular composition and the model used to evaluate liquefaction. The application of the proposed methods to two locations in Japan indicated that the zones with high susceptibility to liquefaction were indeed those that had suffered from liquefaction during past earthquakes.     

基于地面运动强度及标准贯入试验的上海地区砂土地震液化评价

上海市地处长江三角洲前缘,黄浦江和苏州河交汇区域,特殊的地理环境与沉积环境导致浅部砂层广泛发育。随着城市建设的不断推进,上海城市区域范围的砂土地震液化风险评价成为亟待研究的课题。文章基于上海市工程钻孔数据,结合地震地面运动加速度分布与标准贯入试验,建立区域性地震液化危险性评价模型,对上海市进行了地震液化危险性评价。研究认为当发生50年超越概率10%的地震条件下,上海市陆域面积的66.0%将不会产生地震砂土液化灾害,21.8%的陆域面积仅发生轻微液化,只有崇明、横沙、长兴三岛,黄浦江及苏州河两岸地震液化等级达到中等甚至严重,占全市陆域面积12.3%;50年超越概率2%的地震条件下,随着峰值地面运动加速度整体升高,全市范围内轻微—严重液化区域明显增多,可能发生地震液化的总面积达到全市陆域面积46.25%。上海市存在砂土地震液化的危险性,但是发生概率较低。研究认为,目前的抗震设计规范中上海市的设防烈度偏高,可能导致不必要的建设成本。同时研究中的不同超越概率下的地震液化危险性评价结果为上海市工程建设相关标准的合理化改进的提供了建议和参考。