Analysis of the reproduction of dynamic processes in the stratosphere using the climate model of the institute of numerical mathematics,Russian academy of sciences

The reproduction of dynamic processes in the stratosphere at extratropical latitudes is considered in calculations of the atmospheric module of the global climate model of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, with an upper boundary of 0.2 hPa (~60 km) for the period from 1979 to 2008 in comparison with the data observational. Changes in temperature, zonal wind, activity of planetary waves, heat fluxes in the lower stratosphere, and sudden stratospheric warmings with the displacement and splitting of the polar vortex, as well as the distribution of associated circulation anomalies in the troposphere, are analyzed.     

Simulation of changes in global ozone and atmospheric dynamics in the 21st century with the chemistry-climate model SOCOL

The solar climate ozone links (SOCOL) three-dimensional chemistry-climate model is used to estimate changes in the ozone and atmospheric dynamics over the 21st century. With this model, four numerical time-slice experiments were conducted for 1980, 2000, 2050, and 2100 conditions. Boundary conditions for sea-surface temperatures, sea-ice parameters, and concentrations of greenhouse and ozone-depleting gases were set following the IPCC A1B scenario and the WMO A1 scenario. From the model results, a statistically significant cooling of the model stratosphere was obtained to be 4–5 K for 2000–2050 and 3–5 K for 2050–2100. The temperature of the lower atmosphere increases by 2–3 K over the 21st century. Tropospheric heating significantly enhances the activity of planetary-scale waves at the tropopause. As a result, the Eliassen-Palm flux divergence considerable increases in the middle and upper stratosphere. The intensity of zonal circulation decreases and the meridional residual circulation increases, especially in the winter-spring period of each hemisphere. These dynamic changes, along with a decrease in the concentrations of ozone-depleting gases, result in a faster growth of O₃ outside the tropics. For example, by 2050, the total ozone in the middle and high latitudes approaches its model level of 1980 and the ozone hole in Antarctica fills up. The superrecovery of the model ozone layer in the middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres occurs in 2100. The tropical ozone layer recovers far less slowly, reaching a 1980 level only by 2100.     

热带西太平洋海温异常对大气影响的数值模拟

用IAP-GCM二层楼式,模拟1月份西太平洋暖池区海温增暖对1-8月份大气环流的影响,初步探讨暖池区海温异常对我国夏季降水的影响过程。指出北半球500hPa环流场对暖地区1月份海温增暖的响应存在着PNA和EAP波列,在冬季较为明显。其能量传播特征表示为南北半球的中纬度地区基本上是向东传播,在热带低纬度地区存在着准2个月的低频振荡。     

南印度洋SST在20世纪60年代的年代际转变及其相关气候变化过程

The change of sea surface temperature(SST) in the southern Indian Ocean(SIO) during the recent six decades has been analyzed based on oceanic reanalysis and model, as well as atmospheric data. The results show that a thermal regime shift in SIO during the 1960 s, which is not caught enough attentions, has been of equal magnitude to the linear warming since 1970. Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) analyses reveal that a thermal shift is combined with atmospheric changes such as the weakening of westerly during the period of 1960–1967. Inner dynamic connections can be defined that when the westerly winds turn weak, the anticyclonic wind circulation between westerly winds and the trade winds decreases, which further reduces the SST to a negative peak in this period. It is noted that the shifts in the 1960 s are also evident for Southern Hemisphere. For example, subtropical high and the entire westerly winds belt at high latitudes both change dramatically in the 1960 s. This large-scaled process maybe link to the change of southern annular mode(SAM).     

Modeling the global circulation response and the regional response of the Arctic Ocean to the external forcing anomalies

The problem of numerical modeling and analysis of the large-scale World Ocean circulation variability under variations of the external forcing is considered. A numerical model was developed in the INM RAS and is based on the primitive equations of the ocean circulation written in a spherical generalized σ-coordinate system. The model’s equations are approximated on a grid with resolution of 2.5° × 2° × 33, and the North Pole is displaced to the continental point (60°E, 60.5°N). There are two stages for the numerical experiments. The quasi-equilibrium circulation of the World Ocean under the climatological atmospheric forcing is simulated at the first stage. The run is carried out over a period of 3000 years during which a quasi-equilibrium model regime is formed. At the second stage, the sensitivity of the model ocean circulation to the atmospheric forcing perturbations in the Southern Hemisphere is studied. According to the results, the strongest regional changes in the hydrography take place in the Arctic Ocean. Substantial changes of sea’s surface height and local anomalies of the temperature and salinity are formed there.     

北太平洋副热带海洋环流强度异常对长江中下游夏季降水的影响

利用SODA资料和ECCO资料计算得到的北太平洋副热带海洋环流强度,和国家气候中心整编的中国160站逐月降水资料,结合NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和Hadley中心海表面温度资料,分析了1970－2007年海洋环流强度异常同期的大尺度大气环流异常特征及对中国东部夏季降水的影响。结果表明:海洋环流强度变化与长江中下游地区降水存在密切的反相关。环流强度异常可以通过影响西太平洋副热带高压的南北位置异常进而影响长江中下游降水。海洋环流偏弱时,副高位置偏南,长江中下游地区受气旋性环流异常影响,来自副高西北侧的强西南水汽输送至此,在该地区形成强水汽辐合中心,同时伴随上升运动加强和对流的加强,进一步导致该地区降水偏多;当海洋环流偏强时,西太平洋副高位置偏北,长江中下游地区受反气旋性环流异常影响,伴随辐散下沉及水汽辐散,导致该地区降水偏少;海洋环流强度异常导致的中纬度海区海表面温度异常,可能是导致副高南北位置异常的主要原因。     

Size distribution of dust devils in the atmosphere

On the basis of the principle of maximum informational entropy, the equilibrium exponential size (visible diameter) distribution of dust devils in the atmosphere has been introduced. Two independent sets of statistical data on dust devils observed respectively in Arizona and south California are in good agreement with the reference exponential distribution, although the average diameters of the vortices in these two data sets differed by a factor of 5 from each other. The estimates obtained in the paper have indicated that the average diameter of a dust-devil vortex and the doubled value of the Monin-Oboukhov scale are close to each other, a result which was previously observed during dust devils in Australia. A physical explanation is proposed for the closeness of statistics observed for dust devils to the equilibrium exponential distribution. This explanation is based on the property of additivity for the Kelvin circulation of wind velocity in vortices and on a weak dependence of the maximum tangential wind velocity on the size of a vortex. On a heuristic level, it is considered whether the equilibrium exponential distribution is applicable to dust devils observed in the Martian atmosphere.     

Structure of temperature variability in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

The spatial structure of surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies in the extratropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the 20th century is studied from the data obtained over the period 1892–1999. The expansion of the mean (over the winter and summer periods) SAT anomalies into empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) is used for analysis. It is shown that variations in the mean air temperature in the Arctic region (within the latitudes 60°–90°N) during both the winter and summer periods can be described with a high accuracy by two spatial orthogonal modes of variability. For the winter period, these are the EOF related to the leading mode of variability of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the NH, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the spatially localized (in the Arctic) EOF, which describes the Arctic warming of the mid-20th century. The expansion coefficient of this EOF does not correlate with the indices of atmospheric circulation and is hypothetically related to variations in the area of the Arctic ice cover that are due to long-period variations in the influx of oceanic heat from the Atlantic. On the whole, a significantly weaker relation to the atmospheric circulation is characteristic of the summer period. The first leading variability mode describes a positive temperature trend of the past decades, which is hypothetically related to global warming, while the second leading EOF describes a long-period oscillation. On the whole, the results of analysis suggest a significant effect of natural climatic variability on air-temperature anomalies in the NH high latitudes and possible difficulties in isolating an anthropogenic component of climate changes.     

赤道印度洋偶极子对重庆夏季降水的影响分析

利用重庆34个气象台站1961—2017年夏季降水量、NCEP/NCAR的再分析月平均高度场资料和海面温度资料,分析发现,上年秋季尤其是11月的赤道(热带)印度洋偶极子(tropical Indian Ocean dipole,TIOD)模态与重庆夏季降水存在正相关关系。通过前期海面温度对大气环流的影响分析,结果表明:上年11月TIOD和夏季500 hPa高度场的相关与重庆夏季降水和高度场的相关一致,显示出从高纬度到低纬度"+、-、+"的相关分布,反映出当上年11月TIOD正位相(负位相)时,次年夏季环流场表现出乌拉尔山阻塞高压明显(不明显)、中纬度30°～37°N低值系统活跃(不活跃),西太平洋副热带高压偏强(弱)、位置偏南(北)的重庆夏季典型的降水偏多环流特征;前期赤道太平洋ENSO暖事件和前期TIOD事件同时发生时,两个事件的作用相互叠加,使得西太平洋副热带高压加强西伸并且位置偏南,造成重庆夏季降水的异常偏多。     

Statistical significance and climatic role of the Global Atmospheric Oscillation

The statistical significance of Global Atmospheric Oscillation (GAO), whose main element is the well-known El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the equatorial Pacific, was assessed from monthly mean atmospheric pressure data at sea level at the nodes of a regular 5° × 5° grid covering the entire surface of the Earth. The data were collected in 1920–2012. It was found that statistically reliable GAO signals cover almost the entire tropical zone and they also appear at mid- and high latitudes of both hemispheres.     

埃尔尼诺与反埃尔尼诺期间亚洲夏季风环流系统的特征差异

本文对最近三次埃尔尼诺及三次反埃尔尼诺年7月份850hPa风的资料分别进行了合成分析。结果发现,在这两类不同的海洋事件中,亚洲夏季风主要环流系统(低空越赤道气流、盛行风、西太平洋副高及澳大利亚高压等)均表现出不同的特征,其中北半球环流系统特征与以前的研究结果一致,但澳大利亚高压则不然。     

全球变暖背景下对太平洋环流（1960—1999）的模拟

我们用Non—Boussinesq POP海洋模式和NECP 1000 hPa的风应力和气温场资料,模拟了1960—1999年太平洋环流,结果显示：在过去的40年,热带太平洋环流变弱了,另外,由于全球变暖,由北赤道流产生的向热带西太平洋沿岸的热输送和由南赤道流产生的向南太平洋中高纬度的热输送随着时间是减弱的,而在北半球,由北赤道流产生的向中高纬度的热输送是增加的。     

南北半球副热带高压对赤道东太平洋海温变化的响应

本文利用1974年1月到1996年12月重分析(NOAANCEP-NCARCDAS-1)全球500hPa位势高度场资料,及同期赤道太平洋各海区SST资料,研究了南北半球副热带高压的变化特征及其对赤道东太平洋SST变化的响应。结果表明,全球副热带高压的变化及对SST的响应,在南北两个半球有很好的一致性。全球副热带高压强度的变化与超前3个月SST的正相关最为显着。对SST响应最强烈的区域主要在南北纬30°之间的低纬,低纬地区局地SST对副热带高压也有强烈的影响。从10°到30°纬度,对SST的响应分别落后于赤道2～9个月。在中、高纬大气环流的响应表现为波列特征,对暖SST及冷SST的响应波列基本相反,但对暖SST的响应更为显着。海温和副热带高压的月际持续性有明显的季节变化,副热带高压9-10月的相关障碍可能与NinoC区SST8-9月的相关障碍低点有关。     

Response of global subtropical highs to the equatorial eastern Pacific SST anomaly

INTRODUCTIONDuring the 1960s, Bjerknes (1966, 1969) first noted that there had been strong relationshipbetween the tropical Pacific SST and atmospheric circulation. SST anomaly could affect tropicalatmospheric circulation by the Walker Circulation, and affect extratropical atmospheric circulationby the Hadley Circulation. When there was a "warm" event in the eastern tropical Pacific, ascending and sinking branch of the Hadley Circulation would strengthen, subtropical highs (SHs)and …     

Numerical simulation of wave interactions during sudden stratospheric warming

Parameterizations of normal atmospheric modes (NAMs) and orographic gravity waves (OGWs) are implemented into the mechanistic general circulation model of the middle and upper atmosphere (MUA). Numerical experiments of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events are performed for climatological conditions typical for January and February using meteorological reanalysis data from the UK MET Office in the MUA model averaged over the years 1992–2011 with the easterly phase of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The simulation shows that an increase in the OGW amplitudes occurs at altitudes higher than 30 km in the Northern Hemisphere after SSW. The OGW amplitudes have maximums at altitudes of about 50 km over the North American and European mountain systems before and during SSW, as well as over the Himalayas after SSW. At high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, significant (up to 50–70%) variations in the amplitudes of stationary planetary waves (SPWs) are observed during and after the SSW. Westward travelling NAMs have local amplitude maximums not only in the Northern Hemisphere, but also in the Southern Hemisphere, where there are waveguides for the propagation of these modes. Calculated variations of SPW and NAM amplitudes correspond to changes in the mean temperature and wind fields, as well as the Eliassen-Palm flux and atmospheric refractive index for the planetary waves, during SSW. Including OGW thermal and dynamical effects leads to an increase in amplitude (by 30–70%) of almost all SPWs before and during SSW and to a decrease (up to 20–100%) after the SSW at middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.     

Numerical simulation of breeze circulation over the Crimean peninsula

Using the WRF-ARW model, we have conducted a numerical simulation of the atmospheric circulation in the Crimean region for a 30-day period in the summer. The characteristic features of the velocity fields of breeze circulation over Crimea have been identified. We have reproduced the specific features of the development of breeze as a gravity flow, such as the direct and indirect circulation cells, wave oscillations on the boundary between them associated with the Kelvin–Helmholtz instability, and the formation of the breeze head. The breeze velocities and their diurnal cycle have been estimated. For mountainous regions of the southern coast of Crimea (SCC), we have shown that the coastal circulation is predominantly contributed by quasi-diurnal oscillations associated with the wind excitation on the mountain slopes. The physical conditions for the development of a strong katabatic wind have been considered. The counter breeze flows in eastern Crimea formed under the influence of the adjacent Black and Azov seas generate an intense air rise in the meeting zone. The related linear cloudiness area is clearly traced on satellite images. We have obtained daily hodographs of breeze circulation reflecting the local conditions of the shoreline and the configuration of coastal mountains.     

Numerical modeling of hydrophysical fields of the Black Sea under the conditions of alternation of atmospheric circulation processes

The hydrological regime of the Black Sea in the conditions of permanent alternation of atmospheric circulation processes was investigated on the basis of a baroclinic prognostic model of the sea dynamics. In the model, variations in the wind action were expressed as permanent alternation of 24 wind types characteristic of the Black Sea basin throughout the year. Thermohaline impact of the atmosphere was taken into account by specifying the annual trends of temperature and salinity at the sea surface, which was established from multiyear means of these parameters. The problem was solved numerically on the basis of the method of two-cycle splitting with the use of the grid with a horizontal spacing of 5 km. Results of the numerical experiment showed that, under the influence of a strong nonstationarity of atmospheric processes, the water circulation in the upper layer of the Black Sea changes qualitatively and quantitatively. The upper 20–30-m layer of the sea is particularly sensitive to atmospheric circulation variations. For any character of atmospheric circulation, the Black Sea circulation below this layer is nearly always cyclonic with internal cyclonic rotations.     

登陆青岛的热带气旋及其降水特征分析

利用中国台风年鉴资料、地面及探空观测资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析数据以及NERA-GOOS海温数据,首先分析了1949-2019年在青岛登陆的四个热带气旋特征,然后对1909号台风“利奇马”对山东半岛造成的降水强度差异进行对比研究.分析表明:1)1949年以来有4个台风于8月以登陆北上和登陆转向路径在青岛登陆,其在中...     

Estimate of relationship between state of subarctic vegetation and climatic parameters

In this study we examined relationships between vegetation phenology and the physical environment across the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere between 1982 and 2007. Spatial correlation, principal component analysis, and canonical correlation analisys—all linear techniques—were applied to monthly time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), derived from an AVHRR sensor, sea ice distribution (SSMR-SSM/I), and air temperature (NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Atlas). A negative correlation between June NDVI of the tundra belt and sea ice conservation in the coastal zone of Arctic Ocean during summer is possibly forced by broad-scale atmospheric circulation. We developed a model with a single predictor and implemented historical-reconstruction NDVI for a long-term period, including the presatellite era. According to this model, the regional patterns of summer vegetation can be explained by peculiarity of atmospheric circulation in spring.     

Construction of response operators to small external forcings for atmospheric general circulation models with time periodic right-hand sides

Fluctuation-dissipation relations make it possible to connect the response operators of system statistical characteristics to small external perturbations with the statistical characteristics of the unperturbed system (providing statistical stationary of the system). This gives a possibility to estimate the sensitivity of the system directly from modeling or observational data. The problem becomes much more complex if the right hand side of the system contains a component periodically dependent on time (as applied to the problems of modeling the atmosphere, this corresponds to the annual cycle regime experiments). Recently obtained generalized fluctuation-dissipation relations (see Majda and Wang, 2010 [11]) allow (at least theoretically) to construct response operators in the former case as well. In this work we formulate the algorithm for constructing an approximate response operator and test it numerically on the example of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) CAM3 atmospheric general circulation model.