北极中央区经向水汽输送的主要通道

Atmospheric moisture transport plays an important role in latent heat release and hydrologic interactions in the Arctic. In recent years, with the rapid decline in sea ice, this transport has changed. Here, we calculated the vertically integrated atmospheric moisture meridional transport(AMTv) from two global reanalysis datasets, from1979–2015, and found moisture pathways into the central Arctic. Four stable pathways showed an occurrence frequency greater than 70%, and these pathways exhibited a perennial seasonal pattern in the atmosphere above the Laptev Sea Pathway(LSP), Canadian Arctic Archipelago Pathway(CAAP), both sides of the Greenland plateau. Another seasonal pathway appeared above the east of the Chukchi Sea(CSP) during the melting/freezing months(March to September). Through these pathways, AMTv contributed a total moisture exchange of60%–80%—averaged over a 75°N circle—and focused on the low troposphere. Transports across the LSP, CSP and CAAP pathways likely create an enclosed moisture route. Meridional moisture fluxes are intensified in the Pacific sector of Arctic(PSA), especially during melting/freezing months. AMTv interannual variabilities are illustrated mainly in the Laptev Sea and the east Greenland pathway. Results indicate that accompanying a tendency for a stronger Beaufort Sea High in this sea level pressure field, AMTv through PSA pathways, switched from output to input, and approximately 960 km~3 of equivalent liquid water was transferred into the central Arctic during each decade. The detrended AMTv increment is highly correlated with the rapid decline of old ice areas(correlation coefficient is –0.78) for their synchronous fluctuations in the 1980 s and the last decade.     

Meridional mass and energy fluxes in the vicinity of the Arctic border

The air exchange between the Arctic and midlatitude regions is one of the processes forming the climate of the whole Northern Hemisphere. Analysis of the wind regime in the vicinity of the Arctic border (70° N) at the boundary between the 20th and 21st (1997–2004) centuries showed significant changes in the conditions of a meridional air transport between the Arctic and midlatitude regions as compared to the previous years (1960–1990). In this study, the wind fluxes of mass and heat (internal) and kinetic energies are estimated without consideration for turbulent and convective processes. The importance of spatial, seasonal, and interannual variations in wind velocity and air temperature in the formation of these fluxes is analyzed. It is shown that, during the period 1997–2004, an advective transport of energy from the northern latitudes occurred in the lower 6-km tropospheric layer at 70° N latitude over almost a whole year. Only in spring (April) did the wind fluxes bring heat energy from the south. The total amount of both heat and kinetic energies transported from the Arctic region in this way during a year is comparable to the mean amount of these energies contained in the whole atmosphere over the area bounded by 70° N latitude. The current spatial and temporal distributions of wind velocity and meridional mass and energy fluxes, which are presented in this study, may serve as additional information for interpreting data obtained from different on-site measurements in Arctic regions.     

Structure of temperature variability in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

The spatial structure of surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies in the extratropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the 20th century is studied from the data obtained over the period 1892–1999. The expansion of the mean (over the winter and summer periods) SAT anomalies into empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) is used for analysis. It is shown that variations in the mean air temperature in the Arctic region (within the latitudes 60°–90°N) during both the winter and summer periods can be described with a high accuracy by two spatial orthogonal modes of variability. For the winter period, these are the EOF related to the leading mode of variability of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the NH, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the spatially localized (in the Arctic) EOF, which describes the Arctic warming of the mid-20th century. The expansion coefficient of this EOF does not correlate with the indices of atmospheric circulation and is hypothetically related to variations in the area of the Arctic ice cover that are due to long-period variations in the influx of oceanic heat from the Atlantic. On the whole, a significantly weaker relation to the atmospheric circulation is characteristic of the summer period. The first leading variability mode describes a positive temperature trend of the past decades, which is hypothetically related to global warming, while the second leading EOF describes a long-period oscillation. On the whole, the results of analysis suggest a significant effect of natural climatic variability on air-temperature anomalies in the NH high latitudes and possible difficulties in isolating an anthropogenic component of climate changes.     

Numerical simulation of the world ocean circulation and its climatic variability for 1948–2007 using the INMOM

The results of simulating global ocean circulation and its interannual variability in 1948–2007 using INM RAS ocean general circulation model INMOM (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model) are presented. One of the INMOM versions is also used for the Black Sea dynamics simulation. The CORE datasets were used to set realistic atmospheric forcing. Sea ice area decrease by 2007 was reproduced in the Arctic Ocean that is in good agreement with observations. The interdecadal climatic variability was revealed with significant decrease of Atlantic thermohaline circulation (ATHC) and meridional heat transport (MHT) in North Atlantic (NA) since the late 1990’s. MHT presents decrease of heat transport from NA to the atmosphere since the mid-1990’s. Therefore the negative feedback is revealed in the Earth climate system that leads to reducing of climate warming caused primarily by anthropogenic factor for the last decades. Long-term variability (60 years) of ATHC is revealed as well which influences NA thermal state with 10 year delay. The assumption is argued that this mechanism can make a contribution in the ATHC own long-term variability.     

海冰消融背景下北极增温的季节差异及其原因探讨

运用哈德莱中心第一套海冰覆盖率(HadISST1)、欧洲中心(ERA_Interim)的温度以及NCEP第一套地表感热通量、潜热通量等资料,研究了1979—2011年33a来北极海冰消融的季节特点和空间特征,并从反照率——温度正反馈与地表感热通量、潜热通量等方面分析了海冰减少对北极增温影响的季节差异。结果表明,北极海冰在秋季和夏季的减少范围明显大于冬季和春季,而北极地表升温却在秋季和冬季最显著,夏季最为微弱,且夏季的增温趋势廓线也与秋冬季显著不同。这主要是因为夏季是融冰季,海冰融化将吸收潜热。且此时北极低空大气温度高于海表温度,海水相当于大气的冷源。随着海冰的消融,更多的热量由大气传入海洋用于融冰和加热上层海水,这使得夏季的低空大气不能显著升温。而在秋冬季,海冰凝结释放潜热,且此时低空大气温度远低于海水温度,海冰的减少使得海水将更多热量释放到大气中导致低空大气显著增暖。海水对大气的这种延迟放热机制是北极低空在夏季增温不显著而在秋冬季增温显著的主要原因。此外,秋冬季的海冰减少与北极近地面升温具有非常一致的空间分布,北冰洋东南边缘和巴伦支海北部分别是秋季和冬季海气相互作用的关键区域。     

吕宋和台湾岛以东黑潮季节与年际变化规律的对比分析

黑潮是北太平洋副热带环流系统的一支重要的西边界流。前人对不同流段黑潮的季节和年际变化进行了诸多研究,然而基于不同数据所得结论仍存在差异,尤其是不同模式计算所得流量差别很大,而且以往研究往往着眼于某一流段,对不同流段黑潮变化之间的异同及其原因涉及较少。本文基于卫星高度计数据,评估了OFES(Ocean generalcir culation model For the Earth Simulator)和HYCOM(Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model)两个模式对吕宋岛和台湾岛以东黑潮季节与年际变化的模拟能力,进而对两个海域黑潮变化的异同及其物理机制进行了分析。结果表明:HYCOM模式对黑潮季节变化的模拟较好,而OFES模式对黑潮年际变化的模拟较好。吕宋岛以东黑潮和台湾岛以东黑潮在季节与年际尺度上的变化规律均不相同,且受不同动力过程控制。吕宋岛以东黑潮呈现冬春季强而秋季弱的变化规律,主要受北赤道流分叉南北移动的影响;而台湾岛以东黑潮呈现夏季强冬季弱的变化特点,主要受该海区反气旋涡与气旋涡相对数目的季节变化影响。在年际尺度上,吕宋岛以东黑潮与北赤道流分叉及风应力旋度呈负相关,当风应力旋度超前于流量4个月时相关系数达到了-0.56;而台湾岛以东黑潮的流量变化则受制于副热带逆流区涡动能的变化,且滞后于涡动能9个月时达到最大正相关,相关系数为0.44。本研究对于深入理解不同流段黑潮的多尺度变异规律及其对邻近海区环流与气候的影响具有重要意义,同时对于黑潮研究的数值模式选取具有重要参考价值。     

大气环流优势模态对北极海冰变化的响应Ⅰ.北极涛动

利用美国冰雪中心海冰密集度数据,分析了1979-2012年北极海冰面积的时间变化特征,发现北极海冰具有显著的年代际变化特征,分别在1997和2007年前后存在两次年代际转型突变点,相应的大气环流优势模态——北极涛动(AO)也存在显著的时空变化。1979-1996年阶段海冰下降趋势较弱并以较强的年际振荡为主,AO模态较强且显示出低频振荡特征;1997-2006年阶段北极海冰快速减退趋势占优,同时伴随着较弱的年际振荡,AO模态减弱且振荡周期缩短;2007-2012年阶段海冰范围较快下降同时具有极强的年际振荡,方差变化是前两个阶段的2~3倍,AO不仅强度加强,空间结构也发生了变化,极涡中心分别向格陵兰岛和白令海峡一侧延伸,这种结构有利于极地冷空气入侵欧洲和北美。利用ECHAM5大气模式进行的数值试验结果也证实了较强振荡的海冰强迫对AO模态的改变具有决定作用。     

Air pressure fluctuations in the North Atlantic and their relationship with El Niño-southern oscillations

Seasonal and interannual variability of the pressure field and indices of the North Atlantic atmosphere zonal circulation are analysed using historical (1894–1988) observations. It is shown that fluctuations of the index of North Atlantic oscillations (NAO) and that of the eastward transport give evidence of the interannual fluctuations with the typical time scale being 2–7 years. It is shown that the magnitude of interannual NAO index variability exceeds the typical magnitude of seasonal variations, particularly in winter. The time scale of NAO index variations and eastward transport coincides with the typicalEl Niño-southern oscillations (ENSO) temporal scale. The amplitudes of the annual, semi-annual harmonics, and high-frequency fluctuations of the NAO index increase during a typical ENSO event at least by a factor of 2.Translated by V. Puchkin.     

Specific features of the interannual and seasonal variations of hydrometeorological conditions in the region of Kerch Strait for the last two decades

On the basis of the analysis of the archival data, we reveal some regularities of the interannual and seasonal variations of the parameters of atmospheric transport, winds, air temperature, the amount of atmospheric precipitation in the Kerch region, the temperature of water in the Kerch Strait, and the water discharge through the strait observed for about the last two decades. It is shown that the intensities of the southeast atmospheric transport and wind activity predominant for the previous 30-yr period decreased for the analyzed time period as compared with the previous period, whereas the amount of atmospheric precipitation and the annual average temperatures of water in the strait and air in the Kerch region increased. We also reveal the presence of direct qualitative relationship between the intensity of atmospheric transport over the Kerch Strait and the water discharge in its water area.     

Estimates of carbon monoxide emissions from wildfires in northern Eurasia for airquality assessment and climate modeling

The emissions from fires in the boreal zone of northern Eurasia significantly contribute to the global emissions of greenhouse gases, their precursors, and aerosols. These emissions are an important component of the global carbon balance, and they significantly affect both seasonal and long-term variations in the chemical composition and radiation properties of the atmosphere on both regional and global scales. The atmospheric emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) from biomass burning have systematically been estimated for the entire territory of northern Eurasia over the period of 2000–2008 on the basis of satellite (MODIS MCD45A1) data on burned vegetation and the Seiler-Crutzen emission model with consideration for both regional and seasonal features. On the whole, for Russia, the annual emissions of CO from biomass burning ranged from 10.6 to 88.2 Mt/y over the indicated period. Depending on fire activity, the atmospheric emissions of CO from natural fires and agricultural work may yield from 25 to 200% of the total technogenic emissions according to the EDGAR-2000 model. In this case, the dominant contribution is made by boreal forest fires (8–57 Mt/y), whose portion amounts to 63–76% of the total emissions from biomass burning. This relatively short observational series does not allow one to reliably estimate long-term variations; however, on the whole, a stable increase in burned areas has been observed in forest, steppe, and agricultural regions over the last decade. Our analysis suggests significant spatial and seasonal variations in the large-scale fields of fire emissions, which are determined by the physical, geographic, and climatic features of individual regions. The calculated fields of emissions can be used in transport-chemical models, studies of the regional transport and quality of air, and climate models.     

<Superscript>222</Superscript>Rn concentrations in the atmospheric surface layer over continental Russia from observations in TROICA experiments

Both space and time variations in the ²²²Rn concentration in the atmospheric surface layer over continental Russia were analyzed on the basis of data obtained in the Transcontinental Observations into the Chemistry of the Atmosphere (TROICA) experiments. The measurements were taken from a mobile laboratory which was part of a passenger train moving along the Trans-Siberian Railway from Moscow to Vladivostok. The factors that affect the spatial distribution of both daily and seasonal variations in the concentrations of ²²²Rn in the surface air were determined: atmospheric vertical stability, geological features of the area under study, and atmospheric precipitation. The influence of temperature inversions on the accumulation of ²²²Rn in the atmospheric surface layer was analyzed. The fluxes of ²²²Rn from the soil into the atmosphere were estimated for different regions of Russia.     

Atmospheric inputs of trace metals to the northeast Atlantic Ocean: the importance of southeasterly flow

The study of aerosols and rainwater presented here demonstrates that episodic atmospheric deposition events associated with southeasterly flow are quantitatively significant for large areas of the North Atlantic Ocean. This paper considers aluminium and manganese, with predominantly crustal sources, and lead and zinc, which are mobilised into the atmosphere primarily through anthropogenic activity. High levels of all trace metals are associated with southeasterly flow from Europe as the air passes over heavily populated and industrialised regions before reaching the northeast Atlantic Ocean. Fluxes calculated using the 1% HNO₃ acid soluble metal concentration show that, although the climatological norm for this area is westerly flow, short-lived southeasterly transport events dominate the input of trace metals to this ocean region. This material may be toxic to phytoplankton or may be represent a new source of nutrients to the biological community. A significant decrease in atmospheric lead levels in polluted air is seen between June 1996 and May 1997, reflecting the decrease in use of leaded fuels in Europe. Comparing atmospheric flux values to sediment trap metal fluxes shows that the atmosphere represents the dominant source of zinc to the deep ocean, whereas an additional, non-atmospheric, manganese source this required, perhaps from mobilisation of sedimentary material from the continental shelf or long range advection of manganese rich Saharan material.     

巴芬湾西部和格陵兰岛东部大气经向热量输送协同变化对夏季北极海冰的影响

利用欧洲中心气候再分析资料和美国国家冰雪数据中心北极海冰面积资料,分析了夏季北极海冰面积与前期大气经向热量输送年际变化的联系。结果表明：6月北半球中高纬大气的经向热量输送以瞬变热量形式为主,其中巴芬湾西部（B区）和格陵兰岛东部（G区）是瞬变热量向极区传输的两个通道,二者之间存在反位相的协同变化,且这种协同变化与夏季北极海冰面积变化密切相关。可能的机制为：6月,AD、AO和NAO三种北极大气环流型能够引起巴芬湾西部和格陵兰岛东部瞬变热量输送的协同变化,这种协同变化通过涡旋动力作用激发夏季极区大气表现为AD异常,同时影响途经区域的气温,从而通过热动力作用影响夏季北极海冰。将向极区输送的热量称为暖输送,从极区输出的热量为冷输送,则上述两个区域的瞬变热量协同输送可分为三种情况：B暖G冷、B冷G暖、B和G均冷,而B和G均暖的情况十分罕见。当B区向极区输入、G区输出热量时,有利于太平洋扇区和喀拉海的海冰偏少;当G区输入、B区输出热量时,利于喀拉海和拉普捷夫海海冰偏少;当B区和G区均输出热量时,利于波佛特海南部、喀拉海和拉普捷夫海海冰偏多,反之则相反。     

南海暖水季节和年际变化的初步研究

南海暖水具有明显的季节和年际变化。利用气候平均的COADS资料和NCEP大气资料分析了南海暖水的季节变化及其与海面净热通量的关系,以及由此引起的南海地区大气环流的变化。发现海面净热通量在南海暖水的季节变化过程中起到了主要的作用;冬季无暖水存在时,最大上升气流位于赤道及以南地区的印尼群岛附近,夏季最大上升气流北移到了南海暖水上空,南海暖水上空对流强烈,成为大气的对流活动中心。利用50年逐月的SODA海温资料进行垂直方向的3次样条插值,定义并计算南海暖水的强度指数,分析南海暖水的年际变化,并对南海暖水的几个异常暖年份作了合成分析,探讨了暖水年际变化的形成因素。     

A preliminary study on the response of marine primary production to monsoon variations in the South China Sea Basic characteristics

Seasonal, interannual and interdecadal variations of monsoon over the South China Sea （SCS） directly influence the ocean circulation and the mass transport process, etc. , especially the changes of horizontal circulation pattern and upwelling area. These changes directly influence the nutrient transport and the photosynthesis of phytoplankton, which induce the change of the marine ecosystem in the SCS, including the change of marine primary production in this sea area. On the basis of climatic data for long-time series and primary production estimated by remote sensing, the multi-time scale variations of monsoon, seasonal and interannual variations of primary production, and the response of primary production to monsoon variations were analyzed. Furthermore, the spatio-temporal variations of primary production in different sea areas of the SCS and their relations to the monsoon variations were given. The results showed that the strong southwesterly prevailed over the SCS in summer whereas the vigorous northeasterly in winter. The seasonal primary production in the entire sea area of the SCS also produced a strong peak in winter and a suhpeak in summer. And the seasonal primary production distributions displayed different characteristics in every typical sea area. The variations of the annual and summer averaged primary production in the entire sea area of the SCS showed almost the same rising trend as the intensity of the summer monsoon. Especially for 1998, the summer monsoon reached almost the minimum in the past 54 a when the primary production was also found much lower than any other year （ 1999--2005 ）. The responses of annual primary production to monsoon variation were displayed to different extent in different sea areas of the SCS ; especially it was better in the deep sea basin. Such research activities could be very important for revealing the response of marine ecosystem to the monsoon variations in the SCS.     

渤海海冰的年际和年代际变化特征与机理

根据1951-2013年间的渤海冰情等级资料,利用最大熵谱分析、相关分析和合成分析等方法,研究了渤海冰情等级的年际和年代际变化特征,探讨了局地气候、大气环流、ENSO(El Nio-Southern Oscillation)和太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)对海冰的影响。结果表明,渤海海冰具有明显的年际和年代际变化特征,并在1972年前后发生了一次由重到轻的气候跃变,在跃变后冰情较跃变前平均降低了0.7级。相关分析与合成分析结果显示,渤海冰情的年际变化除受局地气候的影响外,还受西太平洋副热带高压(副高)、极涡和欧亚环流的共同调控,特别在1972年以后,秋季副高、冬季欧亚和亚洲纬向环流对渤海冰情的年际变化均有重要影响,可作为渤海海冰预报的重要因子,而春季PDO、ENSO、冬季副高及欧亚和亚洲经向环流则是渤海冰情年代际变化的影响因素。     

Atmospheric transport of anthropogenic heavy metals from the Kola Peninsula to the surfaces of the White and Barents seas

The propagation of air masses and anthropogenic aerosol pollutants from a large industrial region located above the polar circle in the north of the Kola Peninsula is analyzed. The initial data are five-day-traveltime trajectories of air mass transport from the source, which were calculated for each day of January, April, July, and October over a period of 20 years from 1981 to 2000 according to the NOAA reanalysis data on meteorological fields. Seasonal and long-term variations in the mean concentrations of arsenic and heavy metals (Ni, Cu, Pb, Cd, V) in the surface air layer and precipitation over the waters of the White and Barents seas are studied. The results are compared with the published observational data characteristic of the region under study. It is shown that, on the whole, over a year, the atmospheric flux of persistent ecotoxicants from the Kola Peninsula to the waters of the White and Barents seas is fully comparable to the contribution of their inflowing rivers and this flux is dominant for nickel and copper.     

Numerical modeling of the Arctic Ocean ice system response to variations in the atmospheric circulation from 1948 to 2007

The results of model calculations aimed at reproducing climate changes in the Arctic Ocean due to variations in the atmospheric circulation are presented. The combined ocean-ice numerical model is based on NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data and its modified version of CIAF on the state of the lower atmosphere, radiative fluxes, and precipitation from 1948 to the present. The numerical experiments reveal the effect of the ice cover, water circulation, and thermohaline structure of the Arctic Ocean on variations in the state of the atmosphere. We found the heating and cooling periods in the Atlantic water layer, as well as the freshwater accumulation regimes in the Canadian Basin and freshwater flow through the Fram Strait and Canadian Archipelago straits. The numerical model reproduces a reconfiguration of the water circulation of the surface and intermediate layers of the ocean, a shift in the boundary between Atlantic and Pacific waters, and a significant reduction of the ice area.     

基于观测数据的2003?2014年北冰洋海平面时空特征

本文对比了3个不同机构提供的北冰洋月均高度计数据,发现英国极地观测与建模中心和丹麦科技大学空间中心两套数据比较一致且空间覆盖率高,适用于北冰洋海平面变化研究,而前者在数据分辨率、平滑性和与验潮站的符合程度方面均更优。对高度计和验潮站数据的分析表明,北冰洋海平面的气候态特征表现为加拿大海盆的高值和欧亚海盆的低值之间形成鲜明对比;海平面的变化以季节变化和北极涛动引起的低频变化为主,加拿大海盆的季节和年际振幅均较大,俄罗斯沿岸海平面季节变化显著。2003?2014年,北冰洋平均海平面呈上升趋势,其中加拿大海盆海平面上升最快,而俄罗斯沿岸海平面有微弱下降趋势。加拿大海盆和俄罗斯沿岸由于海冰变化显著,不同高度计产品以及高度计与验潮站数据之间差别较大,使用时需慎重。     

Manifestation of the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere

Characteristics of the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation effects manifested on interannual scales in the equatorial stratosphere are determined. Wavelet analysis of local phase shifts, coherence, and correlation is used to obtain correlation portraits of the largest factors of climate variability against the background of coherent variations in the equatorial stratospheric wind speed at the 50- and 15-hPa pressure levels. It is shown that the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation signals may reach the tropical stratosphere. The signals are easily identified in a wide range of scales, including quasi-biennial, 3-to 5-year, and 10-to 11-year periods. The results obtained reflect a coherent pattern of the manifestation of these signals at the selected stratospheric levels. It is found that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation effect at periods close to 10–11 years reaches the stratospheric level rather rapidly, in the same or next month, while the effects of the Arctic Oscillation index are delayed by nine months. The estimates obtained show that a phase shift of almost 180° in the Arctic Oscillation index relative to the equatorial stratospheric wind occurred in almost all of the range of interannual periods in 1978 and 1992. For the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, an increase in local correlations on a scale of 3-to 5-year variations was observed in 1980–1990, a 180° phase shift occurred in 1992, and the correlation with stratospheric wind increased in 1992–2004. The estimates obtained are indicative of a change in the atmospheric circulation pattern that took place in the Northern Hemisphere in 1978–1991.