Constraining potential earthquake sources from the geophysical data

The spatial models describing the physico-mechanical properties of the rocks within the seismically active segment of the Altai–Sayan region are constructed from the ground-based geophysical data. The comparative analysis of their probability density functions at the nodes of the spatial grid covering the studied domain and at the hypocenters of the previous earthquakes shows that the bulk and shear moduli are the most efficient markers of the weakened crustal zones, which are prone to earthquakes. The algorithm for constraining the potential earthquake sources based on the spatial distributions of the elastic moduli of the rocks is suggested. When applied to the Taellin segment of the Altai–Sayan region, this algorithm has localized four echelons of the potential source zones of earthquakes at different depths in the crust. The horizontal positions of two of these zones were delineated by the previous studies based on the ground observations of seismicity, whereas the other two zones have been identified by the suggested algorithm for the first time.     

Post shut-in hazard for hydraulic-fracturing-induced earthquakes: analysis using data from the Guy-Greenbrier earthquake sequence

Journal of Seismology - This project evaluates the existing statistical models to describe post-shut-in seismicity for hydraulic-fracturing-induced earthquakes and studies the importance of...     

地震地球物理数据监控软件设计与实现

台站设备故障响应和风险排除是地震监测工作的基本内容,针对其便捷性和高时效性要求,采用Java语言,开发基于Android平台的地震地球物理数据监控软件.该软件整合重庆市地震局监测工作中的各项业务需求,采用云服务、Tomcat服务器及百度地图等技术,实现了数据实时查看及历史数据波形浏览等功能,及时获取仪器设备工作状态,及...     

Volcanic ash hazard in the Central Mediterranean assessed from geological data

Volcanic ash produced during explosive eruptions can have very severe impacts on modern technological societies. Here, we use reconstructed patterns of fine ash dispersal recorded in terrestrial and marine geological archives to assess volcanic ash hazards. The ash-dispersal maps from nine Holocene explosive eruptions of Italian volcanoes have been used to construct frequency maps of distal ash deposition over a wide area, which encompasses central and southern Italy, the Adriatic and Tyrrhenian seas and the Balkans. The maps are presented as two cumulative-thickness isopach maps, one for nine eruptions from different volcanoes and one for six eruptions from Somma-Vesuvius. These maps represent the first use of distal ash layers to construct volcanic hazard maps, and the proposed methodology is easily applicable to other volcanic areas worldwide.     

读取地震目录自动截取波形程序

“九五”期间各个数字测震台网利用北京港震机电技术有限公司提供的EDSPRTP实时数据处理系统接收各个数字地震台站数据并将数据保存为EDAS格式的连续波形文件.本文介绍EDAS格式波形文件的结构以及利用C语言编写程序,从而实现通过读取地震目录文件得到地震事件的发震时刻和震级,然后自动截取地震波形并且保存该地震事件.     

地震监测数据容灾备份程序设计与实现

为做好地震监测数据容灾备份,以山西地球物理台网为例,搭建NFS服务器,基于oracle rman技术,通过编写shell脚本程序,实现oracle数据库自动定时远程备份,确保在oracle数据库出现故障时能及时恢复,避免数据丢失。通过在山西地球物理台网进行试用,达到预期效果。     

中国四川2008年5月12日汶川地震的地质与地球物理背景

2008年5月12日, 在青藏高原东缘的龙门山, 发生了MW7.9地震. 这一地震是在青藏高原长期隆升和向东推挤的背景下形成的. 发生地震的区域有以下典型的地质特征: 不是陡峭山前的活动汇聚造山带(包括地形起伏大于4 km的情况), 而是缺少高活动强度的低角度逆冲断层;虽拥有年轻的高地形(距今15 Ma)和加厚的地壳, 但是却只有低的GPS缩短率(小于3 mm/a), 并且缺少同时代的前陆沉积. 在我们看来, 青藏高原东部下面的地壳加厚不是因为上部地壳的大范围缩短, 而是由于位于软弱层(低速层)中的深部地壳的韧性增厚. 横跨龙门山的晚新生代缩短量可能仅有10～20 km, 且伴有主要造成青藏高原和四川盆地差异抬升的褶皱和断裂. 5月12日的地震可能反映了青藏高原东部相对四川盆地的带有缓慢的汇聚和右旋走滑的长期抬升. 5月12日地震邻区内GPS确定的速率表明, 该地震的平均复发间隔大约为2 000～10 000年.     

Current state of integrated earthquake simulation for earthquake hazard and disaster

This paper presents the current state of integrated simulation for earthquake hazard and disaster. This simulation takes advantage of the macro–micro analysis method; this method estimates an earthquake’s strong motion with high spatial and temporal resolution, using the bounding medium theory to obtain optimistic and pessimistic estimates of expected strong motion distribution and the singular perturbation expansion that results in an efficient multi-scale analysis. Integrated earthquake simulation calculates seismic responses for all structures in a target area, inputting simulated strong ground motion to a structure analysis method that is plugged into the system by means of a wrapper; a suitable method, linear or nonlinear, is chosen depending on the type of the structure. The results of all simulations are visualized so that residences and government officials can share a common recognition of earthquake hazard and disaster. Two examples of this integrated earthquake simulations are presented; one is made by plugging nonlinear structure analysis methods into the system, and the other is made for an actual city, the computer model of which is constructed with the help of available geographical information systems.     

Environmental corrections to gamma-ray log data: Strategies for geophysical logging with geological and technical drilling

Correction concepts for the elimination of environmental influences on gamma-ray logs have been published in a number of articles and in guidelines by service companies. However, these widely-used processing rules for open- and cased-hole measurement conditions have been presented in different forms using different assumptions. For a detailed comparison, these concepts were reduced to simple analytical formula with the application of the same units and scaling to common, standardised conditions. For geological and technical drilling, environmental influences like borehole geometry, casing configuration and material, as well as mud density have turned out to represent the most important effects for a characterisation of environmental conditions. Typical case histories show that correction processing may lead to differing results, depending on the chosen presumptions. A thorough analysis of different types of influences and a careful choice of adequate correction procedures substantially improve the quality of gamma-ray log data. Further implications of these analytical correction rules permit also the quantitative interpretation of logs in dry cased-hole intervals and with the presence of tool joints or casing collars. The latter effect is widely underrated but is proven here to be a necessary step in precise gamma-ray log processing.     

一种综合地学数据的矿产资源潜力制图方法

研究适应信息化时代特征的矿产资源潜力制图新技术、新方法对推动矿产资源评价理论与技术的发展具有重要的意义.笔者把GIS技术、图像分类算法和空间统计学理论进行有机集成,在空间统计学的空间结构分析技术和遥感图像纹理分类算法的基础上,提出了一种以综合地学数据（地质、地球物理、地球化学和遥感图像数据等）为基本数据源的矿产资源潜力自动制图方法.该方法的技术流程为：①数据准备,即对地球物理和地球化学勘探数据进行预处理,生成一个物化遥综合图像文件;②图像空间结构性分析和纹理图像生成,以综合地学图像为研究对象,用空间统计学的结构分析技术研究地学数据综合图像的空间结构性,生成纹理图像;③纹理图像多元分类,用实验变差函数纹理分类方法对研究区进行多元分类,生成分类专题图;④分类后处理,用叠置分析修正空间分类结果,生成区域矿产资源潜力分布图.     

earthquake disaster rapid assessment for emergency response supported by high-precision data of hazard bearing body

The earthquake disaster rapid assessment(EDRA)is the core technical support for the post-earthquake emergency response. At present, with the popularization of high-precision population, social and economic data, most of the subordinate units of China Earthquake Administration(CEA)have heightened the precision of hazard bearing body data used in EDRA from the original county-level precision to the 30″×30″ precision. However, while the precision of fundamental data has been heightened, no efforts have been made to improve the main algorithms and the technical process of EDRA. It turns out that the assessment has become more accurate, but the problems of the time-consuming process(10-20 minutes, probably 20 minutes or more in great earthquakes)and the low-precision losses distributions that exposed in EDRA supported by county-level precision data remain unresolved.This paper introduces the high-precision(30″×30″)hazard bearing body data, and describes the principle of EDRA and its implementation under the support of county-level precision data at first. Then the paper elaborates the principle of improving EDRA's data foundation using high-precision hazard bearing body data, the principle of improving the computation efficiency and persisting the data precision in the assessment process by means of the cell-to-cell grid algebraic operation, and the method for improving the assessment speed through the segmentation and reorganization of the technical process of EDRA.It is validated that through the improvements, the EDRA has become more accurate and much less time-consuming(less than 1 minute), and is able to output high-precision(30″×30″)distributions of seismic losses. The high-precision hazard bearing body data of wide range are the simulated data but not the survey data. Though the data have been simulated based on the census data, there is still a gap between their accuracy and the real situation. Further research and optimization on the data are needed.     

地磁"低点位移"与"磁暴"相结合预测发震时间

用地磁前兆观测手段提供未来中强地震发震时间的依据归为2个：(1)四川及邻区较大区域出现的地磁“低点位移”；(2)发生K≥6的中强“磁暴”。本文讨论了将两者相结合共同预测中强以上地震发震时间，其成功率大有提高。     

Assessment of earthquake hazard by simultaneous use of the statistical method and the method of fuzzy mathematics

A probabilistic method and a retrieval method of fuzzy information are simultaneously studied for assessment of earthquake hazard, or earthquake prediction. Statistical indices of regional seismicity in three adjacent time intervals are used to predict an earthquake in the next interval. The indices are earthquake frequency, the maximum magnitude, and a parameter related to the average magnitude (orb-value) and their time derivatives. Applying the probabilistic method, we can estimate a probability for a large earthquake with magnitude larger than a certain threshold occurring in the next time interval in a given region. By using the retrieval method of fuzzy information we can classify time intervals into several classes according to the regional seismic activity in each time interval and then evaluate whether or not the next time interval belongs to seismically hazardous time interval with a large earthquake. Some examples of applying both methods to the North section of the North-South Seismic Zone in China are shown. The results obtained are in good agreement with actual earthquake history. A comparison of the probabilistic method with the method of fuzzy mathematics is made, and it is recommended that earthquake hazard be assessed by simultaneous use of both methods.     

Tests of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake source models using free-oscillation data from GOPE

Data from a superconducting gravimeter were obtained from the Geodetic Observatory Pecny (GOPE), Czech Republic, and compared with acceleration data from a broadband seismometer at the same location. We calculated synthetic seismograms for several point- and finite-source fast solutions of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake obtained from surface waves and tested them only against the observed gravity data because of high-noise levels in the low-frequency seismic data. We have obtained a good fit of the synthetic amplitude spectrum with the data up to 1.7 mHz without an additional increase of the moment magnitude M_w. In this aspect, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake was similar to the 2010 Maule earthquake and different from the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, where the free-oscillations studies resulted in an increase of the early M_w values. The degree-one mode ₃S{ia1} dominates the ₃S_1?C2S_2?C1S₃ triplet at the GOPE station.     

Assessment of potential strength of an induced earthquake by using fuzzy multifactorial evaluation

The potential strength of an induced earthquake depends on a series of factors at different levels. It can be effectively assessed and predicted by using the method of fuzzy multifactorial evaluation from a fuzzy set theory. As an illustration of the above-mentioned method, this paper has applied the method to assessing the potential strength of induced earthquakes due to water reservoir.     

Geodynamic models and their application in the combined interpretation of geological and geophysical data (a review)

The paper presents a review of investigations in the field of the theory and practice of the interpretation of geological and geophysical data with geodynamic models that were carried out mainly by researchers of the Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences. Evolutionary models of platform structures, passive continental margins, rift zones, and orogens are examined. The review presents formulations of inverse problems and results of interpretation for various regions, including sedimentary basins of the East European Platform, Atlantic Ocean margins, the Caucasus, the South Urals, and others.     

Evaluation of coalbed methane reservoirs from geophysical log data using an improved fuzzy comprehensive decision method and a homologous neural network

The evaluation of coalbed methane reservoirs using log data is an important approach in the exploration and development of coalbed methane reservoirs. Most commonly, regression techniques, fuzzy recognition and neural networks have been used to evaluate coalbed methane reservoirs. It is known that a coalbed is an unusual reservoir. There are many difficulties in using regression methods and empirical qualitative recognition to evaluate a coalbed, but fuzzy recognition, such as the fuzzy comprehensive decision method, and neural networks, such as the back-propagation (BP) network, are widely used. However, there are no effective methods for computing weights for the fuzzy comprehensive decision method, and the BP algorithm is a local optimization algorithm, easily trapped in local minima, which significantly affect the results. In this paper, the recognition method for coal formations is developed; the improved fuzzy comprehensive decision method, which uses an optimization approach for computing weighted coefficients, is developed for the qualitative recognition of coalbed methane reservoirs. The homologous neural network, using a homologous learning algorithm, which is a global search optimization, is presented for the quantitative analysis of parameters for coalbed methane reservoirs. The applied procedures for these methods and some problems related to their application are also discussed. Verification of the above methods is made using log data from the coalbed methane testing area in North China. The effectiveness of the methods is demonstrated by the analysis of results for real log data.     

Modeling and simulating earthquake accelerograms using strong-motion data from the Istanbul, Turkey, region

In order to simulate earthquake ground motions for the Instanbul (Turkey) region, acceleration time series from western Turkey are modeled by transforming the series into a stationary one which can be described by an autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) process. The ARMA and other parameters used in the stationary transformation are related to physical parameters (e.g. magnitude, distance to epicenter, depth to hypocenter and duration) via a regression analysis. To create simulations for a given set of physical parameters, the modelling procedure is reversed.