A Geophysical Study of the Carcavai Fault Zone, Portugal

The Algarve province is located a few hundred kilometres north of the crossing of the E–W Eurasia–Africa plate boundary in an area of diffuse seismicity and broad deformation. It is characterised by a moderate seismicity, with some important historical and instrumental earthquakes causing loss of lives and significant material damages. The area is affected not only by plate boundary earthquakes but also by moderate to large events generated by local sources. The assessment of onshore local sources is, therefore, of vital importance for an evaluation of the regional seismic hazard. This paper discusses the application of geophysical data to the study of the Carcavai fault zone, an outcropping structure more than 20?km long which is seen to deform sediments of the Plio-Quaternary age. The location of some sectors of the fault zone, as well as the vertical offsets of the structure, are still to be confirmed. In order to estimate these and to study the geometry of the fault zone at depth, geophysical data were acquired together with new geological data. Where the location of the fault was less certain, EM and seismic reflection profiles with coarse spatial sampling were carried out. After the detailed location of the fault zone, seismic reflection profiles with a more dense spatial resolution were acquired. The integrated interpretation of the geological and geophysical data confirmed the presence of a large fault zone. The total fault length is still unknown as its extension offshore is still being studied. Together with estimated values of the throw obtained, this data set has improved understanding the seismic hazard in the area by providing more refined estimates of co-seismic rupture, maximum expected earthquake and return periods.     

Seismogenic potential and earthquake hazard assessment in the Tell Atlas of Algeria

Seismotectonic zonation studies in the Tell Atlas of Algeria, a branch of the Africa-Eurasia plate boundary, provide a valuable input for deterministic seismic hazard calculations. We delineate a number of seismogenic zones from causal relationships established between geological structures and earthquakes and compile a working seismic catalogue mainly from readily available sources. To this catalogue, for a most rational and best-justified hazard analysis, we add estimates of earthquake size translated from active faulting characteristics. We assess the regional seismic hazard using a deterministic procedure based on the computation of complete synthetic seismograms (up to 1 Hz) by the modal summation technique. As a result, we generate seismic hazard maps of maximum velocity, maximum displacement, and design ground acceleration that blend information from geology, historical seismicity and observational seismology, leading to better estimates of the earthquake hazard throughout northern Algeria. Our analysis and the resulting maps illustrate how different the estimate of seismic hazard is based primarily on combined geologic and seismological data with respect to the one for which only information from earthquake catalogues has been used.     

A Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Hazard Parameters in NW Himalaya and the Adjoining Regions

The maximum likelihood estimation method is applied to study the geographical distribution of earthquake hazard parameters and seismicity in 28 seismogenic source zones of NW Himalaya and the adjoining regions. For this purpose, we have prepared a reliable, homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue during the period 1500–2010. The technique used here allows the data to contain either historical or instrumental era or even a combination of the both. In this study, the earthquake hazard parameters, which include maximum regional magnitude (M _max), mean seismic activity rate (λ), the parameter b (or β?=?b/log e) of Gutenberg–Richter (G–R) frequency-magnitude relationship, the return periods of earthquakes with a certain threshold magnitude along with their probabilities of occurrences have been calculated using only instrumental earthquake data during the period 1900–2010. The uncertainties in magnitude have been also taken into consideration during the calculation of hazard parameters. The earthquake hazard in the whole NW Himalaya region has been calculated in 28 seismogenic source zones delineated on the basis of seismicity level, tectonics and focal mechanism. The annual probability of exceedance of earthquake (activity rate) of certain magnitude is also calculated for all seismogenic source zones. The obtained earthquake hazard parameters were geographically distributed in all 28 seismogenic source zones to analyze the spatial variation of localized seismicity parameters. It is observed that seismic hazard level is high in Quetta-Kirthar-Sulaiman region in Pakistan, Hindukush-Pamir Himalaya region and Uttarkashi-Chamoli region in Himalayan Frontal Thrust belt. The source zones that are expected to have maximum regional magnitude (M _max) of more than 8.0 are Quetta, southern Pamir, Caucasus and Kashmir-Himanchal Pradesh which have experienced such magnitude of earthquakes in the past. It is observed that seismic hazard level varies spatially from one zone to another which suggests that the examined regions have high crustal heterogeneity and seismotectonic complexity.     

Considering potential seismic sources in earthquake hazard assessment for Northern Iran

Located on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belt, Iran is one of the seismically active regions of the world. Northern Iran, south of Caspian Basin, a hazardous subduction zone, is a densely populated and developing area of the country. Historical and instrumental documented seismicity indicates the occurrence of severe earthquakes leading to many deaths and large losses in the region. With growth of seismological and tectonic data, updated seismic hazard assessment is a worthwhile issue in emergency management programs and long-term developing plans in urban and rural areas of this region. In the present study, being armed with up-to-date information required for seismic hazard assessment including geological data and active tectonic setting for thorough investigation of the active and potential seismogenic sources, and historical and instrumental events for compiling the earthquake catalogue, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is carried out for the region using three recent ground motion prediction equations. The logic tree method is utilized to capture epistemic uncertainty of the seismic hazard assessment in delineation of the seismic sources and selection of attenuation relations. The results are compared to a recent practice in code-prescribed seismic hazard of the region and are discussed in detail to explore their variation in each branch of logic tree approach. Also, seismic hazard maps of peak ground acceleration in rock site for 475- and 2,475-year return periods are provided for the region.     

K-means cluster analysis and seismicity partitioning for Pakistan

Pakistan and the western Himalaya is a region of high seismic activity located at the triple junction between the Arabian, Eurasian and Indian plates. Four devastating earthquakes have resulted in significant numbers of fatalities in Pakistan and the surrounding region in the past century (Quetta, 1935; Makran, 1945; Pattan, 1974 and the recent 2005 Kashmir earthquake). It is therefore necessary to develop an understanding of the spatial distribution of seismicity and the potential seismogenic sources across the region. This forms an important basis for the calculation of seismic hazard; a crucial input in seismic design codes needed to begin to effectively mitigate the high earthquake risk in Pakistan. The development of seismogenic source zones for seismic hazard analysis is driven by both geological and seismotectonic inputs. Despite the many developments in seismic hazard in recent decades, the manner in which seismotectonic information feeds the definition of the seismic source can, in many parts of the world including Pakistan and the surrounding regions, remain a subjective process driven primarily by expert judgment. Whilst much research is ongoing to map and characterise active faults in Pakistan, knowledge of the seismogenic properties of the active faults is still incomplete in much of the region. Consequently, seismicity, both historical and instrumental, remains a primary guide to the seismogenic sources of Pakistan. This study utilises a cluster analysis approach for the purposes of identifying spatial differences in seismicity, which can be utilised to form a basis for delineating seismogenic source regions. An effort is made to examine seismicity partitioning for Pakistan with respect to earthquake database, seismic cluster analysis and seismic partitions in a seismic hazard context. A magnitude homogenous earthquake catalogue has been compiled using various available earthquake data. The earthquake catalogue covers a time span from 1930 to 2007 and an area from 23.00° to 39.00°N and 59.00° to 80.00°E. A threshold magnitude of 5.2 is considered for K-means cluster analysis. The current study uses the traditional metrics of cluster quality, in addition to a seismic hazard contextual metric to attempt to constrain the preferred number of clusters found in the data. The spatial distribution of earthquakes from the catalogue was used to define the seismic clusters for Pakistan, which can be used further in the process of defining seismogenic sources and corresponding earthquake recurrence models for estimates of seismic hazard and risk in Pakistan. Consideration of the different approaches to cluster validation in a seismic hazard context suggests that Pakistan may be divided into K?=?19 seismic clusters, including some portions of the neighbouring countries of Afghanistan, Tajikistan and India.     

Updating the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Values of Northern Algeria with the 21 May 2003 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> 6.8 Algiers Earthquake Included

The occurrence of the Algiers earthquake (M 6.8) of May 21, 2003, has motivated the necessity to reassess the probabilistic seismic hazard of northern Algeria. The fact that this destructive earthquake took place in an area where there was no evidence of previous significant earthquakes, neither instrumental nor historical, strongly encourages us to review the seismic hazard map of this region. Recently, the probabilistic seismic hazard of northern Algeria was computed using the spatially smoothed seismicity methodology. The catalog used in the previous computation was updated for this review, and not only includes information until June 2003, but also considers a recent re-evaluation of several historical earthquakes. In this paper, the same methodology and seismicity models are utilized in an effort to compare this methodology against an improved and updated seismic catalog. The largest mean peak ground acceleration (PGA) values are obtained in northernmost Algeria, specifically in the central area of the Tell Atlas. These values are of the order of 0.48 g for a return period of 475 years. In the City of Algiers, the capital of Algeria, and approximately 50 km from the reported epicenter of this latest destructive earthquake, a new mean PGA value of 0.23 g is obtained for the same return period. This value is 0.07 g greater than that obtained in the previous computation. In general, we receive greater seismic hazard results in the surrounding area of Algiers, especially to the southwest. The main reason is not this recent earthquake by itself, but the significant increase in the m_max magnitude in the seismic source where the city and the epicenter are included.     

Earthquake ground motion modeling of induced seismicity in the Groningen gas field

A physics‐based numerical approach is used to characterize earthquake ground motion due to induced seismicity in the Groningen gas field and to improve empirical ground motion models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. To this end, a large‐scale (20 km × 20 km) heterogeneous 3D seismic wave propagation model for the Groningen area is constructed, based on the significant bulk of available geological, geophysical, geotechnical, and seismological data. Results of physics‐based numerical simulations are validated against the ground motion recordings of the January 8, 2018, M_L 3.4 Zeerijp earthquake. Taking advantage of suitable models of slip time functions at the seismic source and of the detailed geophysical model, the numerical simulations are found to reproduce accurately the observed features of ground motions at epicentral distances less than 10 km, in a broad frequency range, up to about 8 Hz. A sensitivity analysis is also addressed to discuss the impact of 3D underground geological features, the stochastic variability of seismic velocities and the frequency dependence of the quality factor. Amongst others, results point out some key features related to 3D seismic wave propagation, such as the magnitude and distance dependence of site amplification functions, that may be relevant to the improvement of the empirical models for earthquake ground motion prediction.     

Updated seismic hazard assessment of Tunisia

Modern earthquake loss models make use of earthquake catalogs relevant to the seismic hazard assessment upon seismicity and seismotectonic analysis. The main objective of this paper is to investigate a recently compiled catalog (National Institute of Meteorology or INM catalog: 412-2011) and to generate seismic hazard maps through classical probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and smoothed-gridded seismicity models for Tunisia. It is now established with the local earthquake bulletin that the recent seismicity of Tunisia is sparse and moderate. Therefore, efforts must be undertaken to elaborate a robust hazard analysis for risk assessment and seismic design purposes. These recommendations follow the recently published reports by the World Bank that describe the seismic risk in Tunis City as being beyond a tolerable level with an MSK intensity level of VII. Some attempts were made during the past two decades to assess the seismic hazard for Tunisia and they have mostly failed to properly investigate the historical and instrumental seismicity catalog. This limitation also exists for the key aspect of epistemic and random uncertainties impact on the final seismic hazard assessment. This study also investigates new ground motion prediction equations suitable for use in Tunisia. The methodology applied herein uses, for the first time in PSHA of Tunisia, seismicity parameters integrated in logic tree framework to capture epistemic uncertainties through three different seismic source models. It also makes use of the recently released version of OpenQuake engine; an open-source tool for seismic hazard and risk assessment developed in the framework of the Global Earthquake Model.     

中国大陆及周缘地震目录完整性统计分析

地震目录资料是进行地震预测、地震危险性分析、地震活动性研究等地震学研究的基础资料.对地震目录资料的完整性可靠性分析是地震学研究的基础工作之一.近几十年来我国积累的大量的仪器地震记录,历史地震也在不断更新,为地震活动性研究提供了更为丰富的样本,因此有必要对新的地震目录进行完整性分析.本文采用了新的统计方法对我国仪器记录地震目录和历史破坏性地震目录进行了完整性分析.结果表明,对于仪器记录地震目录（M≥3.0）我国东部地区1975年后基本完整,西部地区1980年后基本完整.对于历史地震目录（M≥5.0）,东部地区1500年后基本完整,西部地区1950年后基本完整.考虑到华北地震区历史破坏性地震（M≥4³/₄）活动的时间非平稳性,我们采用突变点分析法研究了华北地震区历史破坏性地震目录的时间特征,得到了华北地震区地震活动周期性变化的突变点位置,并揭示了华北地震区历史破坏性地震目录完整起始时间约为公元1500年前后.     

Seismic Hazard Assessment of the East Thuringian Region/Germany – Case Study

East Thuringia/Germany, especially the region Gera-Ronneburg, is part of the large Kyffhäuser-Jachymov-Fault-Zone and displays moderate seismicity. However, its seismic hazard is significantly higher than that of the surrounding area including the Vogtland/Northern Bohemian region. The earthquake catalogue of Germany contains for this region besides the well-investigated Central German Earthquake (March 1872, I ₀ =VII-VIII) entries of up to I ₀ =VIII (14th century). Epicentral intensities and coordinates of these historical earthquakes are considered as uncertain. In seismic hazard analysis historical events which are uncertain are often neglected. But, especially in regions of moderate seismicity and infrequent larger earthquakes, the time window considered should be extended as far as possible. Apart from the necessity to study the historical sources of the strongest 14th century earthquakes, we investigate the influence of these events on the seismic hazard, taking into account the uncertainties of their size and location. Generally, the investigations clearly reveal the importance of defining source regions on the one hand and the significance of the local relevant attenuation function on the other hand. A further important point in seismic hazard assessment is the strong influence of the geological site conditions on seismic hazard (amplification or damping phenomena). For both points the well-known Central German Earthquake (1872) supplies important information.     

Preliminary analysis of earthquake probability based on the synthetic seismic catalog

The analysis of seismic hazards relies on the statistical analysis of historical seismic data and the instrumental seismic catalog to obtain the regional earthquake recurrence interval and earthquake probability. The accuracy of analysis thus depends strongly on the completeness of the seismic data used. However, available seismic catalogs are too short or incomplete for the reliable analysis of the statistical characteristics of earthquakes. If a long-term synthetic seismic catalog can be generated using a physics-based numerical simulation, and the simulation results match the crustal deformation, seismicity, and other observations,then such a synthetic catalog helps us to further understand the characteristics of seismic activity and analyze the regional seismic hazard. In this paper, taking the northeastern Tibetan Plateau as a case study, we establish a three-dimensional visco-elastoplastic finite-element model to simulate earthquake cycles and the spatiotemporal evolution of earthquakes on the model fault system and obtain a seismic catalog on a time scale of tens of thousands of years. On the basis that the model satisfies the regional geodynamics of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, we analyze seismicity on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau using the simulated synthetic earthquake catalog. The characteristics of earthquake recurrence at different locations and different magnitudes, and the long-term average probability of earthquake occurrence within the fault system on the northeastern Tibetan plateau are studied. The results are a reference for regional seismic hazard assessment and provide a basis for the physics-based numerical prediction of earthquakes.     

Seismic risk assessment for developing countries: Pakistan as a case study

Modern Earthquake Risk Assessment (ERA) methods usually require seismo-tectonic information for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) that may not be readily available in developing countries. To bypass this drawback, this paper presents a practical event-based PSHA method that uses instrumental seismicity, available historical seismicity, as well as limited information on geology and tectonic setting. Historical seismicity is integrated with instrumental seismicity to determine the long-term hazard. The tectonic setting is included by assigning seismic source zones associated with known major faults. Monte Carlo simulations are used to generate earthquake catalogues with randomized key hazard parameters. A case study region in Pakistan is selected to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. The results indicate that the proposed method produces seismic hazard maps consistent with previous studies, thus being suitable for generating such maps in regions where limited data are available. The PSHA procedure is developed as an integral part of an ERA framework named EQRAM. The framework is also used to determine seismic risk in terms of annual losses for the study region.     

埃及东部沙漠Gasco天然气公司工程场地大地构造参数和地震灾害评估

根据埃及Gasco天然气公司工程场地的现场调查资料、地震活动性和地震灾害评估结果,对该场地进行了评估.通过浅源地震波折射勘探,对8个地震剖面上的土壤和岩石的弹性动态常数进行了分析.场地地面模型包括两层,分析表明它们具有从中值到高值的弹性动态常数,说明场地有良好的土壤条件和基岩岩性.同时,我们搜集和分析了研究区周围150 km半径范围内的历史和仪器记录地震,从构造环境、地震活动性、地质构造和主要地震的断层面解等方面进行了研究,认为场地受4个震源区的影响:苏伊士中部海湾、开罗-苏伊士地区、开罗西南和Beni-Suef地区.我们采用地震活动性统计方法并结合专家判定,确定了这些震源区内最大地震的矩震级(MW).另外,依据场地峰值加速度(PGA)和反应谱,用随机方法对场地进行了地震灾害评估.4个震源区中,Beni-Suef地区距离工程场地最近,其PGA最大值为9.34cm/s2,但这个值很小,表明地震不会对工程场地产生破坏性影响.最后,我们还模拟了阻尼为1%、3%和5%时的伪加速度场地反应谱.     

The Dinar Earthquake (Mw = 6.2; October 1, 1995; Afyon-Turkey) and Earthquake Hazard of the Dinar-Çivril Fault

—A moderately strong earthquake (M _w = 6.2) occurred in the town of Dinar at 17.57 UT on October 1, 1995, taking the lives of 90 people and damaging about 4500 buildings. Its epicenter is located near the Dinar-Çivril fault and its focal mechanism is linked to a northeast-southwesterly tensional stress field arising from the interaction between the subducting African plate and the overriding Aegean-Anatolian plate in the eastern Mediterranean.¶Surface cracks of the October 1 earthquake have been observed 10 km continuously along the Dinar-Çivril fault. The cracks have displayed a mode of dip-slip; however, some have also indicated lateral slip. The different modes of slip are generally in agreement with the fault plane solution and are indicators of the complex nature of the rupture process.¶In investigating the earthquake hazard of the Dinar-Çivril fault and proximity, the maximum likelihood method was used to estimate seismic hazard parameters of b-value, seismicity activity rate λ _m and the expected maximum magnitude M _max?. The data consisted of the historical data covering the period between 1800–1900 and instrumental data between 1900 and 1992. This method, allowing use of the mixed earthquake catalogue containing both historical and instrumental earthquake data, yielded values of 0.70, 1.92 and 7.14 for b, λ _m and M _max?, respectively. The recurrence time estimated for an earthquake of a magnitude of M _w = 6.2 is 123 years. The non-occurrence probabilities of such an earthquake in 1 and 50 years are 0.21 and 0.04, respectively.     

A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Turkish territory: part II—fault source and background seismicity model

Over the years, several local and regional seismic hazard studies have been conducted for the estimation of the seismic hazard in Turkey using different statistical processing tools for instrumental and historical earthquake data and modeling the geologic and tectonic characteristics of the region. Recently developed techniques, increased knowledge and improved databases brought the necessity to review the national active fault database and the compiled earthquake catalogue for the development of a national earthquake hazard map. A national earthquake strategy and action plan were conceived and accordingly with the collaboration of the several institutions and expert researchers, the Revision of Turkish Seismic Hazard Map Project (UDAP-Ç-13-06) was initiated, and finalized at the end of 2014. The scope of the project was confined to the revision of current national seismic hazard map, using the state of the art technologies and knowledge of the active fault, earthquake database, and ground motion prediction equations. The following two seismic source zonation models are developed for the probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis: (1) Area source model, (2) Fault and spatial smoothing seismic source model (FSBCK). In this study, we focus on the development and the characterization of the Fault Source model, the background spatially smoothed seismicity model and intrinsic uncertainty on the earthquake occurrence-rates-estimation. Finally, PSHA results obtained from the fault and spatial smoothed seismic source model are presented for 43, 72, 475 and 2475 years return periods (corresponding to 69, 50, 10, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years) for PGA and 5% damped spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1.0 s.     

基于广义极值理论的潜在地震海啸源震级上限及强震重现水平的估计——以琉球海沟俯冲带为例

以琉球海沟俯冲带作为研究区,将广义极值理论用于估计潜在地震海啸源震级上限,首先分析了琉球海沟俯冲带的地震地质构造特征以及历史地震资料,界定潜在地震海啸源区,然后根据地震活动性特征按时间域进行分割,并提取各时间段发生的极限震级的地震样本,最后通过广义极值分布模型估计了该区域的震级上限值和强震重现水平,并对其进行了不确定性分析。     

Neotectonics and associate seismicity in the Eastern Tellian Atlas of Algeria

Seismicity in the Eastern Tellian Atlas of Algeria is active of moderate to low magnitude. The direct identification of active fault is often a difficult task. In fact, in this region, despite the intense seismicity, only the Constantine earthquake of 27 October, 1985 ( M s = 5.7) and the Kherrata earthquake of 17 February, 1949 ( M s = 4.7), have generated surface ruptures. Hence, the integration of both geological, historical and instrumental seismic data are important in order to characterise the most important seismogenic structures. This paper presents a preliminary overview of the identified neotectonic faults that we consider active in the Eastern Tellian Atlas of Algeria. Thus, seismicity and neotectonic maps are presented and the faults which are active or potentially active from a neotectonic point of view are shown in relation with the main seismic groupings. This study based mainly on available seismic and bibliographic data and several unpublished marine seismic data enable us to suspect a fault as the eventual source of the Jijeli earthquake of 21 August 1856 that destroyed the Jijeli town and its surroundings. The results inferred from this work represent a starting point for more detailed studies in seismogenic areas.     

Seismic hazard impact of the Lower Tagus Valley Fault Zone (SW Iberia)

The seismic hazard of SW Iberia is composed of two contributions: offshore, large to very large events on the plate boundary between Africa and Eurasia such as the Lisbon earthquake of 1755 or the Gorringe Bank earthquake of 1969; and onshore, moderate to strong intraplate earthquakes on inherited crustal fractures. One of these zones of crustal weakness is the Lower Tagus Valley (LTV) fault zone, which displays the highest level of seismic hazard in Western Iberia. In this paper we review the active tectonics and seismicity of the LTV, integrating previous geophysical data with recent results of paleoseismological investigations, and discuss its impact on the seismic hazard of SW Iberia. We conclude that the seismic zonation for hazard assessment currently in force in the building code is biased towards the scenario of distant offshore rupture, and does not take adequately into account the LTV seismic source.     

Seismicity of western Macedonia, Greece

The seismicity of western Macedonia is examined in the present paper. On the basis of historical information as well as on instrumental data it is found that this area is characterized by low seismicity. The focal region of the Grevena-Kozani 1995 earthquake exhibits the highest seismicity in terms of probabilities for the generation of strong (M_s ≥ 6.0) earthquakes in a period of fifty years. Two other regions with relatively high seismicity were also distinguished (west of Edessa and around Prespes lakes). Accurate determination of focal parameters of all earthquakes occurred in the area during October 1975-April 1995, by the use of a 3-D crustal model shows that the seismic activity is related to the graben structures of the studied area. Finally, evidence is presented that the triggering of the 1995 earthquake may be related to the impoundment of the Polyfytos artificial lake.