The Predictability of the Seismicity on Shiveluch Volcano

This paper presents the results from estimating the predictability of the seismicity of Shiveluch Volcano based on the earthquake catalog for the Northern Group of Kamchatka Volcanoes for 1971–1996 and 1999–2013. The mathematical model that we employed is a nonlinear second-order differential equation, while the algorithms of optimization and predictability are ours. The calculations show that seismicity can be successfully predicted for time intervals of a few weeks to a few months during phases of higher activity and for times of between a few months and a few years during phases of lower seismicity. The prediction distances are in excess of the error by factors of 20 to 50 on average. The nonlinearities in both times of higher and lower rates are close to the law of an equilateral hyperbola. We concluded that the predictability of seismicity can possibly be used in an integrated complex to predict extrusive and effusive activity and accompanying explosive activity. The prediction of major bursts of explosive activity related to failure in the existing volcanic edifice requires additional monitoring of the dome structure and the stability of the rocks that make up the dome.     

Estimating the predictability of the seismicity rate: The 1964 eruption of Shiveluch Volcano

This paper describes a method for estimating the predictability of the seismicity rate for volcanic edifices. The mathematical model is a nonlinear second-order differential equation, with our own algorithms for optimization and for estimating predictability. The method is illustrated by the 1964 eruption on Shiveluch Volcano. Calculations showed that the seismicity rate can be predicted with success for a time interval ranging between a few days and a few tens of days during the active phase and between a few tens of days and a few hundreds of days during the decay phase. The level of predictability is rather high, with the prediction distance exceeding the mean error by two to four orders of magnitude. The nonlinear character of both the active phase of the process and of its decay phase is close to the law of an equilateral hyperbola. The method, as developed in this paper, allows a realistic approach to the prediction of that part of the volcanic process which involves brittle deformation and/or rapid displacements of material along the newly arisen cracks.     

Neutron generation and geomagnetic disturbances in connection with the Chilean earthquake of February 27, 2010 and a volcanic eruption in Iceland in March–April 2010

The relationship between solar and geomagnetic activities in connection with seismicity and volcanic eruptions on the globe during the period 1680–2010 is studied. The centennial cycles of terrestrial endogenous activity, related to solar and geomagnetic activity, are revealed; at the beginning of these cycles, solar cycles with small Wolf numbers were detected, while intensive seismic and volcanic activity was observed for several decades. A stable negative correlation between seismicity and volcanism, on the one hand, and solar and geomagnetic activity, on the other hand, were found. Experiments, which were simultaneously carried out at the Pushkov Institute of Geomagnetism, Ionosphere, and Radiowave Propagation, Russian Academy of Sciences (IZMIRAN), Troitsk, Moscow oblast, and the Karymshina Complex Geophysical Observatory, Kamchatka Branch, Geophysical Survey, Russian Academy of Sciences, have verified the suggestion that disturbances in the geomagnetic field and neutron generation occur during the early stages of strong earthquakes. It is supposed that the mechanism of primary generation of terrestrial neutrons is related to nuclear reactions in the Earth’s interior.     

Summit eruptions of Klyuchevskoi Volcano,Kamchatka in the early 21st century, 2003–2013

This paper is concerned with eruptions, seismicity, and deformation on Klyuchevskoi Volcano during the summit eruptions of 2012–2013, with the condition of the central crater during the eruptions, and with the effect that is exerted by the height of the lava in the crater on the start of the eruptions. The recurrence of eruptions in the North Volcanic Cluster (NVC), Kamchatka showed that all the four volcanoes in the cluster (Klyuchevskoi, Tolbachik, Shiveluch, and Bezymyannyi) become active during definite phases that were identified in the 18.6-year lunar cycle. This relationship of the NVC eruptions to the active phases in the 18.6-year lunar cycle, as well as the relationship to the 11-year solar activity, showed that eruptions can be predicted, yielding long-term estimates of activity for the NVC volcanoes. The short-term prediction of volcanic eruptions requires knowledge of seismicity and deformation that occur during the precursory period and during the occurrence of eruptions. Seismic activity during the summit eruptions of 2003–2013 took place in the depth range 20–25 km during repose periods of the volcano and at depths of 0–5 km in the volcanic edifice during the eruption. One notes an almost complete absence of any earthquakes at great depths during the summit eruptions. Volcanic tremor (VT) was recorded from the time that the eruptions began and continued to occur until the end. Geodetic measurements showed that the center of the magma pressure beneath the volcano during the parasitic and summit eruptions of 1979–1989 moved in the 4–17 km depth range, while during the summit eruptions of 2003–2013 the center moved in the 15–20 km range. These changes in the depth of the center of magma pressure may have been related to evacuation from shallow magma chambers.     

Applying Fractal Dimensions and Energy-Budget Analysis to Characterize Fracturing Processes During Magma Migration and Eruption: 2011–2012 El Hierro (Canary Islands) Submarine Eruption

The impossibility of observing magma migration inside the crust obliges us to rely on geophysical data and mathematical modelling to interpret precursors and to forecast volcanic eruptions. Of the geophysical signals that may be recorded before and during an eruption, deformation and seismicity are two of the most relevant as they are directly related to its dynamic. The final phase of the unrest episode that preceded the 2011–2012 eruption on El Hierro (Canary Islands) was characterized by local and accelerated deformation and seismic energy release indicating an increasing fracturing and a migration of the magma. Application of time varying fractal analysis to the seismic data and the characterization of the seismicity pattern and the strain and the stress rates allow us to identify different stages in the source mechanism and to infer the geometry of the path used by the magma and associated fluids to reach the Earth’s surface. The results obtained illustrate the relevance of such studies to understanding volcanic unrest and the causes that govern the initiation of volcanic eruptions.     

Earthquake swarms at Upptyppingar,north-east Iceland: A sign of magma intrusion?

In 2007, intense swarms of deep, tectonic earthquakes, amounting to at least 5 300 epicentres, were detected near to Mount Upptyppingar, which forms part of the Kverkfjöll volcano system in Iceland’s Northern Volcanic Zone. Although micro-seismicity is common within such volcanic regions, the Upptyppingar swarms have been more intensive and persistent than any other deep-seated seismicity observed in Iceland. Here we outline the spatial and temporal changes in ongoing seismicity that began in February 2007; in addition, we document enhanced levels of GPS-derived crustal deformation, recorded within 25 km of the area of swarming. Besides displaying spatial clustering, the Upptyppingar micro-earthquakes are noteworthy because: (i) they concentrate at focal depths of 14–22 km; (ii) the swarms comprise brittle-type earthquakes < 2 in magnitude, yielding a b-value of 2.1; and (iii) several of the swarms originate at focal depths exceeding 18 km. Additionally, different parts of the affected region have exhibited seismicity at different times, with swarm sites alternating between distinct areas. The activity moved with time towards east-north-east and to shallower depths. Linear regression approximates the seismicity on a southward-dipping, ～41° plane. Alongside sustained earthquake activity, significant horizontal displacement was registered at two permanent GPS stations in the region. High strain rates are required to explain brittle fracturing under visco-elastic conditions within the Earth’s crust; similarly, intense, localised deformation at considerable depth is necessary to reconcile the measured surface deformation. Such remarkable seismicity and localised deformation suggests that magma is ascending into the base of the crust.     

Seismicity around the Hekla and Torfajökull volcanoes, Iceland, during a volcanically quiet period, 1991–1995

The volcano Hekla in south Iceland had its latest eruption in January–March 1991. The eruption was accompanied and followed by considerable seismic activity. This study examines the seismicity in the Hekla region (63°42′–64°18′N, 18°30′–20°12′W) during a period when the high activity related to the eruption had ceased, from July 1991 to October 1995. The aim is to define the level of the normal background seismicity of the area that can be compared to the eruption-related activity. The Hekla Volcano proper was generally aseismic during the study period. The most prominent earthquake cluster is in the neighbouring Torfajökull Volcano. The epicentres are concentrated in the western part of the caldera and west of it. The hypocentres are located at all depths from the surface down to 14?km, with highest activity at 5–12?km. Inside this cluster, in the northwest part of the caldera, is a spherical volume void of earthquakes, approximately 4?km in diameter and centred at 8?km depth. This is interpreted as a cooling magma body. Small, low-frequency events of volcanic origin were occasionally recorded at Torfajökull. This activity has mainly occurred in swarms and was most abundant during the first year of the study period, presumably reflecting some kind of connection to the 1991 Hekla eruption. Our study area also includes the easternmost section of the South Iceland seismic zone, a transform zone characterized by bookshelf faulting on transverse faults. Two lineaments of epicentres were identified, roughly corresponding to mapped faults of the South Iceland seismic zone. The hypocentres are relatively deep, mainly at 6–12?km, matching the general trend of hypocentral depth increasing toward the east. The seismicity is highest in the area of the mapped faults. However, the epicentres extend beyond them and indicate greater width of the South Iceland seismic zone, or 20–30?km rather than approximately 10?km as indicated by the length of the surface faults. The seismicity in the volcanic systems of Hekla and Vatnafjöll shows some characteristics of the South Iceland seismic zone. Epicentres are concentrated into two N–S lineaments, one of which coincides with the location of the 1987 Vatnafjöll earthquake (M_w=5.9), a strike-slip event on a N- to S-trending fault. The hypocentres of the Hekla–Vatnafjöll events are mainly at 8–13?km depth, which indicates a continuation of the depth trend of the earthquakes of the South Iceland seismic zone. The events located at Hekla proper and immediately north of it are all of low-frequency character, which can be held as an indication of volcanic origin. On the other hand, they show clear S arrivals at observing stations like normal high-frequency tectonic earthquakes.     

Sustained long-period seismicity at Shishaldin Volcano,Alaska

From September 1999 through April 2004, Shishaldin Volcano, Aleutian Islands, Alaska, exhibited a continuous and extremely high level of background seismicity. This activity consisted of many hundreds to thousands of long-period (LP; 1–2 Hz) earthquakes per day, recorded by a 6-station monitoring network around Shishaldin. The LP events originate beneath the summit at shallow depths (0–3 km). Volcano tectonic events and tremor have rarely been observed in the summit region. Such a high rate of LP events with no eruption suggests that a steady state process has been occurring ever since Shishaldin last erupted in April–May 1999. Following the eruption, the only other signs of volcanic unrest have been occasional weak thermal anomalies and an omnipresent puffing volcanic plume. The LP waveforms are nearly identical for time spans of days to months, but vary over longer time scales. The observations imply that the spatially close source processes are repeating, stable and non-destructive. Event sizes vary, but the rate of occurrence remains roughly constant. The events range from magnitude ∼ 0.1 to 1.8, with most events having magnitudes < 1.0. The observations suggest that the conduit system is open and capable of releasing a large amount of energy, approximately equivalent to at least one magnitude 1.8–2.6 earthquake per day. The rate of observed puffs (1 per minute) in the steam plume is similar to the typical seismic rates, suggesting that the LP events are directly related to degassing processes. However, the source mechanism, capable of producing one LP event about every 0.5–5 min, is still poorly understood. Shishaldin's seismicity is unusual in its sustained high rate of LP events without accompanying eruptive activity. Every indication is that the high rate of seismicity will continue without reflecting a hazardous state. Sealing of the conduit and/or change in gas flux, however, would be expected to change Shishaldin's behavior.     

Seismicity of Ruapehu volcano,New Zealand, 1971–1996: a review

From 1971 until 1995, the style of seismicity at Ruapehu changed little, reflecting a period of relatively low eruptive activity and consequent long-term stability within the vent system. Volcanic earthquakes and volcanic tremor were both dominated by a frequency of about 2 Hz. Volcanic earthquakes accompanied all phreatic and phreatomagmatic eruptions, but not small hydrothermal eruptions that originated within Crater Lake. Furthermore, more than half of the M_L>3 volcanic earthquakes and changes in the reduced displacement of 2 Hz volcanic tremor by as much as a factor of 20 occurred without any accompanying eruptive activity. Three and 7 Hz volcanic tremor were also recorded, although never at lower-elevation seismometers. At times, this tremor was stronger at the summit seismometer than the 2 Hz tremor. Their source regions were independent of the 2 Hz source, and located at shallower depths. Volcano-tectonic earthquakes were generally unrelated to eruptive activity. The seismicity accompanying the 1995–1996 eruptive activity was significantly different from that of the period 1971 to 1995, and included volcanic tremor with a frequency of less than 1 Hz, simultaneous changes in the amplitude of the previously independent 2 Hz and 7 Hz volcanic tremor, and finally a change in the frequency content of volcanic earthquakes and volcanic tremor from 2 Hz to wideband. Path transmission effects play an important role in determining the characteristics of seismograms at Ruapehu. The presence of Crater Lake affects both the style of eruptions and the accompanying seismicity.     

Temporal change of characteristics of shallow volcano-tectonic earthquakes associated with increase in volcanic activity at Kuchinoerabujima volcano, Japan

Shallow volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes recorded at the Kuchinoerabujima island volcano in southwest Japan are analyzed in order to clarify the role of hydrothermal activity in the development of volcanic seismicity. From analysis of shallow VT earthquakes in 2006, two specific episodes of elevated seismicity are observed in April and November 2006. The VT earthquakes have hypocenters at depths of 0–0.4 km beneath the summit crater, and normal fault focal mechanisms with WNW–ESE extension consistent with the tensional stress field indicated by the alignment of craters and fissures. Although the hypocenters and focal mechanisms are found to be largely invariant during these episodes, the corner frequencies of the VT earthquakes underwent a pronounced increase and decrease accompanying the changes in seismicity rates. The corner frequencies increased to 20–25 Hz approximately one month prior to the onset of elevated seismicity, and then decreased to 10–15 Hz in the period of peak seismicity. The rupture length also decreased at the onset of seismicity, thereafter increasing as the seismicity continued. The peak seismicity in terms of the daily number of VT events was accompanied by inflation around the crater, suggestive of a pressure increase in the volcanic system. It is inferred that the increase in shallow VT seismicity and rupture length is related to the development of a fractured zone. The pressure increase in the volcanic system is attributed to the intrusion of hydrothermal fluids, which is supported by an observed increase in fumarolic temperature and activity. The preceding monochromatic events are thus considered to be generated by the effect of fluid-filled cracks. The shortening of rupture length is then inferred to be related to the closing of non-fluid-filled cracks in the fracture zone under the increasing pressure field, leading to a transition from monochromatic events to low-frequency and shallow VT seismicity.     

地震过程动力学行为和可预报性问题研究

本文提出了地震事件时序概念,找到了通过对实际地震观测资料的分析来有效地研究地震系统动力学行为和可预报性问题的方法.从实例分析观测资料的结果发现,被分析的这些地震系统混沌吸引子关联维数d₂为3.2-7.5,二阶Renyi熵K₂为0.019-0.052.这表明这些地震过程存在着已知变量数目范围的确定性规律,是可以预报的,但可预报时间有限.由K₂可以估算在一定预报精度要求下,对未来地震的可预报时间长度（本文震例中最长为一个月左右）.这套分析方法对认识地震过程动力学行为及可预报性问题都有重要意义.     

Volcanomagnetic signals during the recent Popocatépetl (México) eruptions and their relation to eruptive activity

An interdisciplinary approach correlating magnetic anomalies with composition of the ejecta in each eruption, as well as with seismicity, was used to study the effect of magmatic activity on the local magnetic record at Popocatépetl Volcano located 65 km southeast of México City. Eruptions began on December, 1994, and have continued with dome growth and ash emissions since then. The Tlamacas (TLA) geomagnetic total field monitoring station, located 5 km away from Popocatépetl’s crater, was installed in December, 1997, in order to detect magnetic anomalies induced by this activity.Spatial correlation and weighted difference methods were applied to detect temporal geomagnetic anomalies using TLA’s record and the Teoloyucan Magnetic Observatory as a reference station. Weighted differences were applied to cancel the effects of non-vulcanogenic external field variations. Magnetic anomalies over a 2-year time span were classified into four types correlating them with geochemical, seismic and visual monitoring of the volcanic activity. Magnetic anomalies are believed to be caused by magma injection and gas pressure build-up, which is sensitive to vent morphology and clearing during eruption, although some anomalies appear to be thermally related, changes in the stress field are very important. Most magnetic anomalies are short time signals that reverse to baseline level. Decreasing anomalies (−0.5 to −6.8 nT) precede eruptions by 1–8 days.The presence of a mafic magmatic component was determined by mineral examination and silica and magnesium analyses on the ejecta from the 1997–1999 eruptions. Whole rock analyses ranged from dacitic (65% SiO₂) to andesitic (57% SiO₂) with 2–6.6% MgO. The higher MgO, lower silica samples contain forsteritic olivine (Fo90). SiO₂ does not increase and MgO does not increase with time, suggesting ascent of small magma pulses which are consistent with the magnetic data.     

A double seismic antenna experiment at teide Volcano: existence of local seismicity and lack of evidences of Volcanic tremor

Data analyzed in the present work correspond to a 40 days field experiment carried out in Teide Volcano (Canary Islands, Spain) with two short-period small-aperture dense seismic antennas in 1994. The objective of this experiment was to detect, analyze and locate the local seismicity. We analyzed also the background seismic noise to investigate the possible presence of volcanic tremor. From a set of 76 events, we selected 21 of them in base of their good signal-to-noise ratio and their possibility to locate their seismic source by using the seismic antennas. A visual classification based on the S–P time and seismogram shape has permitted to establish three groups of events: local seismicity (S–P time between 3 and 5 s), very local earthquakes (S–P time smaller than 3 s) and artificial explosions. These earthquakes have been located by applying the Zero Lag Cross-Correlation technique and the inverse ray-tracing procedure. Those earthquakes that were recorded simultaneously by both seismic antennas were also located by intersecting both back-azimuths. The analysis of the seismicity has revealed that the amount of seismicity in Teide Volcano is moderate. This seismicity could be distributed in three main areas: inside the Caldera Edifice (below the Teide–Pico Viejo complex), in the eastern border of the Caldera Edifice and offshore of the island. At present, this activity is the only indicator of the volcano dynamics. The analysis of the back-ground seismic noise has revealed that at frequencies lower than 2 Hz, the Oceanic Load signal is predominant over other signals, even over local earthquakes with a magnitude of 2.0. Due to this, although if in the Teide area were present a weak volcanic tremor, or other volcanic signals with predominant peaks below 2 Hz, to observe them would be a very difficult task.     

Temporary seismological observations in the area of the 2012–2013 Tolbachik Fissure Eruption: Results

The seismicity that accompanied the Tolbachik Fissure Eruption was recorded by additional seismic stations that were installed in the southern Klyuchevskoi Volcanic Cluster area in January to October 2013. We used broadband (0.033–50 Hz) three-component digital Guralp CMG-6TD seismometers. This temporary network provided seismicity data at a lower energy level than can be done using the regional seismograph network of Kamchatka. The processing of the resulting digital records supplied data for compiling a catalog of over 700 M _L = 0–3.5 (K _S = 1.5–8.5) earthquakes, which is an order of magnitude greater than the number of events located by the regional network for the same period of time. The seismicity in the area of Ploskii Tolbachik Volcano was found to concentrate mostly in spatially isolated areas during the eruption. The main isolated clusters of earthquakes were identified both in the eruption area itself and along the periphery of Ploskii Tolbachik Volcano, in the area of the Zimina volcanic massif, and in the Tolud epicenter zone; the eruption zone was not dominant in the seismicity. The region of a shallow seismicity increase beneath Ploskii Tolbachik before the eruption was not found to exhibit any increased activity during the time the temporary seismograph network was operated, which means that a seismicity inversion took place at the beginning of the eruption. We discuss the question of what the earthquake-generating features are that we have identified.     

S-wave velocity structure inferred from re-ceiver function inversion in Tengchong volcanic area

Tengchong volcanic area is located near the impinging and underthrust margin of India and Eurasia plates. The volcanic activity is closely related to the tectonic environment. The deep structure characteristics are inferred from the receiver function inversion with the teleseismic records in the paper. The results show that the low velocity zone is influenced by the NE-trending Dayingjiang fault. The S-wave low velocity structure occurs obviously in the southern part of the fault, but unobviously in its northern part. There are low velocity zones in the shallow position, which coincides with the seismicity. It also demonstrates that the low velocity zone is directly related to the thermal activity in the volcanic area. Therefore, we consider that the volcano may be alive again.     

Volcanisme et séismes du manteau supérieur dans l’Archipel des Nouvelles-Hébrides

The seismological and volcanological observations in the New Hebrides region during the last years have allowed the author to specify the structure and also the correlations between the deep seismicity and volcanic activity of this zone, hypothesis presented by the author since 1962. From a statistical study made at the International Seismological Centre of Edinburgh one must conclude that there is a strong evidence in favour of a causative relationship between precursor intermediate focus earthquakes and subsequent eruptions. Then again these space and time correlations are tested by the success of volcanic eruptions forecasting. Volcanism and seismicity in the upper mantle are connected by geographical, temporal and petrochemical correlations.     

S-wave velocity structure inferred from receiver function inversion in Tengchong volcanic area

IntroductionTengchongvolcanicclusterisoneofthefamousvolcanicactiveareasinourcountry.LocatedatthenortheasternsideoftheimpingingmarginofIndianandEurasiaplates,TengchongvolcanicareabelongstoBurmaarc-shapeseismictectonicsystemofHimalayasstrongseismicactivezone.Thiskindofcomplextectonicenvironmentmakesitanareaoffrequentearthquake,volcanoandhotspringactivitiesforonewhole.Itisoneoftheyoungestvolcanicareasinourcountrywithmorevolcanoes,widerangeandcompleteeruptionstyles.Thevolcanoactedfrequentlyfrom…     

Spatial changes in volcanic and seismic activity prior to great earthquakes

Spatial relationship between volcanism and seismicity prior to the occurrence of several great interplate earthquakes in the circum Pacific area has been examined in order to understand the process of underthrusting in detail. The locations of the epicenters of the great earthquakes have been examined in terms of locations of concentrated volcanic and seismic activity in a short time period in order to determine if there is any relationship between these activities, and whether such relationships can be used to refine the underthrusting model. The study shows that in most cases, (1) there is no volcanic activity in the vicinity of the epicenter of the great earthquake and (2) maximum volcanic activity is localized, i.e., volcanoes adjacent to one another exhibit considerable activity in a short time period. Very little systematic spatial relationship between these three parameters is observed although in most cases, there is no volcanic activity at the time of maximum earthquake activity. Locations of active volcanoes and earthquake activity, during the five years prior to the occurrence of the great earthquake, do not appear to be a guide to the epicenter of the great earthquake. This study therefore suggests that although there is temporal relationship between the occurrence of maximum volcanic and seismic activity and the occurrence of great earthquake, there appears to be no systematic spatial relationship between these three parameters.     

Geodynamic Technique Applied to the Volcanic Activity Forecast of Lanzarote Island in Spain

In accordance with the Agreement of Sino-Spain Science and Technology Cooperation,the Institute of Seismology,SSB of China and the Institute of Astronomy and Geodesy of Spain have together performed research at the Geodynamics Laboratory of Lanzarote(Canary Islands)with geodynamic instrumentation.Researchers conducted observation and then analyzed the data compiled.Researchers using the advanced geodynamic instruments could monitor the volcanic activity and seismicity in order to forecast the volcanic eruption and earthquakes.The results of this paper are obtained from this scientific and technological cooperation of the two institutes between China and Spain.     

Seismicity at White Island volcano, New Zealand: a revised classification and inferences about source mechanism

The classification of earthquakes at White Island volcano, New Zealand, has been revised to address problems in existing classification schemes, to better reflect new data and to try to focus more on source processes. Seismicity generated by the direct involvement of magmatic or hydrothermal fluids are referred to as volcanic, and that generated by fault movement in response to stresses caused by those fluids, regional stresses, thermal effects and so on are referred to as volcano-tectonic. Spasmodic bursts form a separate category, as we have insufficient information to classify them as volcanic or volcano-tectonic. Volcanic seismicity is divided into short-duration, long-period volcanic earthquakes, long-duration volcanic earthquakes, and harmonic- and non-harmonic volcanic tremor, while volcano-tectonic seismicity is divided into shallow and deep volcano-tectonic earthquakes. Harmonic volcanic tremor is related to sub-surface intrusive processes, while non-harmonic volcanic tremor originates close to active craters at shallow depth, and usually occurs during eruptive activity. Short-duration, long-period volcanic earthquakes come from a single source close to the active craters, but originate deeper than non-harmonic volcanic tremor, and are not related to eruptive activity. Long-duration volcanic earthquakes often accompany larger discrete eruptions. The waveform of these events consists of an initial low-frequency part from a deep source, and a later cigar-shaped part of mixed frequencies from a shallow crater source.