Developing Potentiometric Surfaces and Flow Fields with a Head‐Specified MODFLOW Model

Investigating changes in an aquifer system often involves comparison of observed heads from different synoptic measurements, generally with potentiometric surfaces developed by hand or a statistical approach. Alternatively, head‐specified MODFLOW models, in which constant head cells simulate observed heads, generate gridded potentiometric surfaces that explicitly account for Darcy's Law and mass balance. We developed a transient head‐specified MODFLOW model for the stratified Cambrian‐Ordovician sandstone aquifer system of northeastern Illinois to analyze flow within its 275 m deep cone of depression. Potentiometric surfaces were developed using static heads from production wells regardless of open interval; hence assuming no vertical head difference. This assumption was tested against steady‐state, head‐specified models of each sandstone strata for 1980 and 2014. The results indicate that the original conceptual model was appropriate in 1980 but not 2014, where a vertical head difference had developed at the center of the cone of depression. For earlier years, when the head difference was minimal, the transient head‐specified model compared well with a traditional, flow‐specified model. In later years, the transient head‐specified model overestimated removal of water from storage. MODFLOW facilitates the development of a time‐series of potentiometric surfaces and can easily be modified to test the impacts of different conceptual models, such as assumptions on vertical head differences. For this study of a deep confined aquifer, MODFLOW also offers advantages in generating potentiometric surfaces and flow fields over statistical interpolation techniques, although future research is needed to assess its performance in other settings.     

IHMS—Integrated Hydrological Modelling System. Part 2. Application of linked unsaturated,DiCaSM and saturated zone,MODFLOW models on Kouris and Akrotiri catchments in Cyprus

The integrated hydrological modelling system, IHMS, has been described in detail in Part 1 of this paper. The system comprises three models: Distributed Catchment Scale Model (DiCaSM), MODFLOW (v96 and v2000) and SWI. The DiCaSM simulates different components of the unsaturated zone water balance, including groundwater recharge. The recharge output from DiCaSM is used as input to the saturated zone model MODFLOW, which subsequently calculates groundwater flows and head distributions. The main objectives of this paper are: (1) to show the way more accurate predictions of groundwater levels in two Cyprus catchments can be obtained using improved estimates of groundwater recharge from the catchment water balance, and (2) to demonstrate the interface utility that simulates communication between unsaturated and saturated zone models and allows the transmission of data between the two models at the required spatial and temporal scales. The linked models can be used to predict the impact of future climate change on surface and groundwater resources and to estimate the future water supply shortfall in the island up to 2050. The DiCaSM unsaturated zone model was successfully calibrated and validated against stream flows with reasonable values for goodness of fit as shown by the Nash‐Sutcliffe criterion. Groundwater recharge obtained from the successful tests was applied at various spatial and temporal scales to the Kouris and Akrotiri catchments in Cyprus. These recharge values produced good estimates of groundwater levels in both catchments. Once calibrated, the model was run using a number of possible future climate change scenarios. The results showed that by 2050, groundwater and surface water supplies would decrease by 35% and 24% for Kouris and 20% and 17% for Akrotiri, respectively. The gap between water supply and demand showed a linear increase with time. The results suggest that IHMS can be used as an effective tool for water authorities and decision makers to help balance demand and supply on the island. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Method to Determine the Formation Constants of Leaky Aquifers, and Its Application to Pumping Test Data

Abstract. A method to calculate aquifer transmissivity, storage coefficient, and the leakage coefficient from pumping test data for a leaky aquifer is presented. The method is carried out by a computer program and is based on a minimization of the sum of squares of differences between drawdown in the observation well and the theoretical values from the Hantush and Jacob formula. No user defined starting points are necessary. Random error estimates for the parameters are given. Applications of the method are illustrated using data from pumping tests performed in leaky aquifers at the Cauca River Valley, Colombia.     

Coupled Models of Brittle-plastic Deformation and Fluid Flow: Approaches,Methods, and Application to Mesoproterozoic Mineralisation at Mount Isa,Australia

Rock deformation has an important effect on the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of permeability in the Earth’s crust. Hydromechanical coupling is of fundamental significance to natural fluid–rock interaction in porous and fractured hydrothermal systems, and in the assessment and production of hydrocarbon resources and geothermal energy. Shearing and fracturing of rocks can lead to the creation or destruction of permeability when fractures or faults form, or when existing structures are reactivated. Changes in stress orientation or fluid pressure can drive rock failure and create dilating fault zones that have the potential to focus fluid flow, or to breach seals above overpressured fluid compartments. Here, numerical models of deformation and fluid flow related to Mesoproterozoic copper mineralisation at Mount Isa, Australia, are presented that show how changes in deformation geometry in multiply deformed geological architectures relate to changes in dilation patterns, fluid pathways and flow geometry. Coupled numerical simulations of deformation and fluid flow can be useful tools to better understand structural control on fluid flow in hydrothermal mineral systems.     

Flow Estimation in a Basin by Using a Hydrological Model: Application to the Basin of Wadi Djendjen (Jijel,North-East Algeria)

The aim of this study was to transform the rain into flow in the basin of Wadi Djendjen by using a simulation model in absence of the continuous measurements of the flow. The obtained results indicated and confirmed the strong adaptability of this model with varied hydroclimatic situations. The validation process showed an interesting result, which lead to conclude that the model is well calibrated and has a good performance to be used for the basins with Mediterranean climate. The obtained results for the simulation by the GR2M model over the studied period (1973–1986) showed that there no significant difference between the obtained value for the yearly average flow (197.70 hm³) and that measured at Missa hydrometric station (200.80 hm³), which allow us to estimate quantitatively the flow in Missa hydrometric station. While, for the period of 2000–2012, the results showed that the yearly average flow value (171.90 hm³), is significantly different (reduction of 15% for 12 years), in comparison with that measured at Missa hydrometric station (200.80 hm³). This can be due to the dryness which struck the region since 2000, and the local degradation of the forest ecosystem, which has considerably affected the runoff surface.     

Temporal Changes in VOC Discharge to Surface Water from a Fractured Rock Aquifer During Well Installation and Operation, Greenville, South Carolina

Analysis of the vapor in passive vapor samplers retrieved from a streambed in fractured rock terrain implied that volatile organic carbon (VOC) discharge from ground water to surface water substantially increased following installation of a contaminant recovery well using air rotary drilling. The air rotary technique forced air into the aquifer near the stream. The injection produced an upward hydraulic gradient that appears to have transported water and contaminants from deeper parts of the aquifer through fractures into shallow parts of the aquifer. Once in the shallow flow regime, the contamination was transported to the stream, where it discharged during the next several weeks following well installation. After the recovery well was activated and began continuously pumping contaminated ground water to a treatment facility, the VOC concentrations in the stream bottom passive vapor samplers decreased to below detectable concentrations, suggesting that the withdrawal had captured the contaminated ground water that previously had discharged to the stream.     

Modeling the runoff and glacier mass balance in a small watershed on the Central Tibetan Plateau,China, from 1955 to 2008

The glaciers on Tibetan Plateau play an important role in the catchment hydrology of this region. However, our knowledge with respect to water circulation in this remote area is scarce. In this study, the HBV light model, which adopts the degree‐day model for glacial melting, was employed to simulate the total runoff, the glacier runoff and glacier mass balance (GMB) of the Dongkemadi River Basin (DRB) at the headwater of the Yangtze River on the Tibetan Plateau, China. Firstly, the daily temperature and precipitation of the DRB from 1955 to 2008 were obtained by statistical methods, based on daily meteorological data observed in the DRB (2005–2008) and recorded by four national meteorological stations near the DRB (1955–2008). Secondly, we used 4‐year daily air temperature, precipitation, runoff depth and monthly evaporation, which were observed in the DRB, as input to obtain a set of proper parameters. Then, the annual runoff, the glacier runoff and GMB (1955–2008) were calculated using the HBV model driven by interpolated meteorological data. The calculated GMB fits well with the observed results. At last, using the temperature and precipitation predicted by climate models, we predicted the changes of runoff depth and GMB of the DRB in the next 40 years. Under all climate‐change scenarios, annual glacier runoff shows a significant increase due to intensified ice melting. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Detection, modelling and estimation of non-linear trends by using a non-homogeneous Vasicek stochastic diffusion. Application to CO2 emissions in Morocco

This paper proposes a new stochastic model, based on a Vasicek non-homogeneous diffusion process, in which the non-linear trend coefficient (drift) depends on deterministic functions that describe the dynamic evolution of certain exogenous variables. After studying its probabilistic characteristics, and in particular the transition probability density and trend function, the associated stochastic inference based on discrete sampling in time is established using maximum likelihood methodology. This model is applied to detect, estimate and model the non-linear trend present in data corresponding to CO₂ emissions in Morocco. Energy and financial variables that affect the behaviour of this trend are also detected, and substantial improvement provided by this non-homogeneous model with respect to its corresponding homogeneous version, is confirmed.     

Modelling of Thermal Stratification and Ice Dynamics with Application to Lake Teletskoye,Altai Republic,Russia

Water Resources - Numerical modelling of ice growth and transport of matter in lakes, estuaries, or coastal seas can provide crucial input for improving the environment. In this paper, the goal is...     

The Application of the Acoustic Method to the Exploration of Urban Active Faults and a Comparison with the Artificial Earthquake, and Radar Methods

The depth of upper fault point is the key data for ascertaining the active age of a buried fault on a plain. The difference of depth obtained from same fault may be dozens to several hundred meters when using different geophysical methods. It can result in the absolutely opposite conclusions when judging fault activity. Because of a lack of an artificial earthquake source with wide band and high central-frequency, many kinds of methods have to be used together. The higher the frequency of the artificial earthquake wave, electromagnetic wave and sonic wave, the higher the resolution. However the attenuation is also very fast and the exploration depth is very shallow. The reverse is also true. The frequency of artificial seismic waves is in the tens of Hz. Its exploration depth is big and the resolution is poor. The frequency of radar electromagnetic waves is about a million Hz, indicating that the resolving power is better, but the exploration depth is very shallow. However, the acoustic frequency is thousands of Hz, its resolving power is better than that of the artificial earthquake method and the exploration depth is larger than that of the radar method. So it is suitable for extra-shallow exploration in the thick deposit strata of the Quaternary. The preliminary results detected using the high frequency acoustic method in extra-shallow layers indicates that previous inferences about some fault activity in the eastern part of the North China plain may need to be greatly corrected.     

N<Subscript>2</Subscript>, Ar,and He as a tool for discriminating sources of volcanic fluids with application to Vulcano,Italy

A detailed analysis of published data on the N₂, Ar, and He content and Ar and He isotopic composition of fumarolic fluids from Vulcano crater (south Italy) supports a model with two endmembers comprising magmatic and hydrothermal fluids with correspondingly low and high H₂O content. The magmatic component with the highest ³He/⁴He and highest absolute concentrations of N₂, Ar, and He also has the lowest N₂/Ar and N₂/He ratios (∼300 and ∼500, respectively). In contrast, the hydrothermal endmember, with the lower ³He/⁴He and lower absolute N₂, Ar, and He abundances, has high N₂/Ar (∼1,000) and high N₂/He (>3,000) ratios. The hydrothermal component is also characterized by the highest ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar ratios (>1,000) and is proposed to be the main carrier of metamorphic gases from the arc crust.     

Application of a watershed runoff model to North-east Pond River,Newfoundland: to study water balance and hydrological characteristics owing to atmospheric change

The hydrological sensitivities to long-term climate change of a watershed in Eastern Canada were analysed using a deterministic watershed runoff model developed to simulate watershed acidification. This model was modified to study atmospheric change effects in the watershed. Water balance modelling techniques, modified for assessing climate effects, were developed and tested for a watershed using atmospheric change scenarios from both state of the art general circulation models and a series of hypothetical scenarios. The model computed daily surface, inter- and groundwater flows from the watershed. The moisture, infiltration and recharge rate are also computed in the soil reservoirs. The thirty years of simulated data can be used to evaluate the effects of climatic change on soil moisture, recharge rate and surface and subsurface flow systems. The interaction between surface and subsurface water is discussed in relation to climate change. These hydrological results raise the possibility of major environmental and socioeconomic difficulties and have significant implications for future water resource planning and management. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling and Validating Long‐Term Dynamics of Diel Dissolved Oxygen with Particular Reference to pH in a Temperate Shallow Lake (Turkey)

Long‐term monitoring of changes in dissolved oxygen (DO) and pH is of great importance to quantifying aquatic ecosystem metabolism, particularly for lakes under the changing global environment. During 173 days, diel DO cycles were measured in situ along with the main driving variables of pH, wind speed (WS), and net solar radiation (Rn) in a temperate shallow lake. Best‐fit multiple non‐linear regression (MNLR) models of diel DO time series were built and validated on a monthly basis, with R² values ranging from 42.4% in September to 95.4% in November for validation. The strong relationship between diel DO and pH (r = 0.6) appeared to be related to the patterns of ecosystem productivity and respiration, and sensitivity of decomposing bacteria to changes in pH. pH‐driven lake metabolism appears to have significant implications for diel and seasonal lake metabolism in a changing global environment.     

Application of a Bayesian model to infer the contribution of coalbed natural gas produced water to the Powder River,Wyoming and Montana

The Powder River Basin (PRB) of Wyoming and Montana contains significant coal and coal bed natural gas (CBNG) resources. CBNG extraction requires the production of large volumes of water, much of which is discharged into existing drainages. Compared to surface waters, the CBNG produced water is high in sodium relative to calcium and magnesium, elevating the sodium adsorption ratio (SAR). To mitigate the possible impact this produced water may have on the quality of surface water used for irrigation, the State of Montana passed water anti‐degradation legislation, which could affect CBNG production in Wyoming. In this study, we sought to determine the proportion of CBNG produced water discharged to tributaries that reaches the Powder River by implementing a four end‐member mixing model within a Bayesian statistical framework. The model accounts for the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, δ¹³C_DIC, [Sr] and [DIC] of CBNG produced water and surface water interacting with the three primary lithologies exposed in the PRB. The model estimates the relative contribution of the end members to the river water, while incorporating uncertainty associated with measurement and process error. Model results confirm that both of the tributaries associated with high CBNG activity are mostly composed of CBNG produced water (70–100%). The model indicates that up to 50% of the Powder River is composed of CBNG produced water downstream from the CBNG tributaries, decreasing with distance by dilution from non‐CBNG impacted tributaries from the point sources to ~10–20% at the Montana border. This amount of CBNG produced water does not significantly affect the SAR or electrical conductivity of the Powder River in Montana. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.