气候与树木年轮之关系

陶格拉西教授(Paof.A.E Douglass),是美国秋爽州立大学(University of arizona;Tucson)的天文学者,彼在1901年,以日斑(sun spot)之消长,足以影响气候上微细之变动,这微细变动,又必影响及於树木之生长;树木生长之历程,又见之於年轮。因创斑与年轮之关系一说,此说一出,和者踵起,因时推进,范围益广,致有今日之大观,而成科学之一支。年轮一说,理论上,应用上,现在已获重要立足点,如推展日斑的材料。断定美国西南部原有民族 Pueblo Indian衰落的年代,均其例也,供给气候微细变动之材料,又其一例也。此文是记载最後一项研究步骤之概要 ;是逢昌个人,1936年夏,在秋爽实习时,陶氏所授而逢笔述也。     

一月至三月份全國天氣槪况

1.民國二十九年一月份:(1)月初一老年氣旋發現於西伯得亞,故知冷氣團已俟機而動;惟中國本部仍在久經(?)質冷氣團控制之下、故天氣和暖晨多重霧。於月之三日此氣旋之冷鋒已至華北,此後盤桓於是地數日不去,於是大河以北終成氣旋追逐之場。自六日起此冷氣方開始南進,十日即行抵南海。自十九日至二十二日因有一低氣壓槽自印度侵入,故長江流域先後雨雪數日。     

民国二十四年十一月份各地气象通讯

长沙温度平均与过去三年同月平均比较:衡阳低0.8度,长沙低0 4度,常德低1.9度;惟绝对最高,长沙之31.5度,衡阳之29.9度,常德之26.5度,皆为过去三年同月所无;绝对最低,相差甚微,间有低於过去三年同月者,故本月暖时,须着衣;冷时,又须着棉袍也。雨日,以长沙之十九日为最多,衡阳之十七日为次多,常德之十五日为最少,雨量亦如雨日,长沙最多,计213.7mm,衡阳次之,计161.4mm,常德最少计158.9mm,不惟皆多於过去三年同月平均,且超过过去三年同月之最高纪录,此所以湘河水位,中旬曾一度高涨也。     

国际极年崂山测候报告

此次国际第二次极年探险工作之期与会各国除在南北二极设立测候站外,又於信风带季风区内作高山及高空探测,冀以阐发气象学上亟欲解决之问题,贡献於世。因我国亦在被邀之列,宜合作进行,於是南京气象研究所特设峨嵋及泰山二测候所,本台亦选择崂山之明道观内,设一测候所’以利工作。所址位於北纬36°10′,东经120°37′,     

气象电报分区广播办法试行成功

我国气象电报,向由各处测候所,直接互送,此项办法於短距内,少数测候所间,尚属可行。年来我国气象事业,进步甚速,测候所之增加,测候区域之推广,大有一日千里之势。原用电报直接互送之办法,殊失便利,盖因路途之遥远,每电发出,须经辗转传递,同时又需分送各地,故於电政方面手续繁冗,徒为浪费;於气象机关方面,因电报迟到,常失时效。本年全国气象机关举行讨论会於首都,爰有采用分区广播办法之决议。大会闭幕以後,遵照决议原则,由交通部电政司与气象研究所会商订定施行办法十二则,自七月一日开始试行。当试行之初,只以泥     

峨眉山之氣候

(一)地理環境與峨眉山之氣壓升降峨眉山在四川盆地西南,居東經103度41分。北緯29度28分,高度約三千公尺,北有邛崍山,西有大雪山,南有大涼山,三面包圍,各山高度均達三千公尺以上,其西之西藏高原,面積遼闊,拔海高度,亦不下四千公尺。峨眉山當川康交界大相嶺之東側,靑衣江大渡河东西環流,匯於樂山。其地理環境舆卓立華北大平原之泰山異,而天氣現象遂亦颇有不同之處。該處之氣象觀測。始於民國二十一年八月,翌年八月極年終了,卽行結束。迨二十八年四川建設聽及氣象研究所議定恢復,於四月開始工作,迄三十年三月適滿二載,茲篇所述,以近二年之紀錄為主,而以極年觀測為輔。夫大氣壓力乃隨高度而遞减,高山氣壓自視其鄰近低處氣壓為低,北為無可懷疑之     

民國三十年七月至十二月全國天氣概况

本月承前月下旬炎威之餘勢,月初於四川盆地深感酷熱。初旬中渝蓉等處日平均温度大抵在四十度上下,此種熱浪所至,皆呈乾旱傾向。其原因由於北太平洋上半穩定性高氣壓之中心西移,其楔端伸入中國東南部。夏季季風盛行,東南風推至西北青海一带,西甯。都蘭二處,本月之平均風力達二級三級而東南風之最大風力,西甯達蒲氏風級四級而都蘭則達蒲氏風力七級。中國東南,西南部及西北部咸有呼熱之聲。月初在熱浪聲中有二次颱風連續登陸侵入西南中國。第一次颱風於前月三十日在香港之西登陸。七月二日進抵贵州高原。第二     

民国二十五年一月份中国天气概况

本月天气,乾冷异常,此因极地大陆气团之盛行所致;但於其萎总之时,热带气团即行伸张,因於高空发生暖面,而降雨雪,故本月之雪,颇多自南方始者。月初,高气压中心尚在西伯里亚之贝加尔湖区域,而其极面已抵长江,因是雨雪纷飞。二日,有一小高气压自西伯里亚分离而出现於     

二十四年九月份全国天气概况

本月天气,全国晴朗,乾暖异常;惟十一至十二日寒潮之猛烈,则为常年九月所稀见。东亚境内,共发生风暴九个:其一,初现於蒙古而直趋东部西伯利亚。其二,渊源於黄海,而迳行日本中部。此外均发自东海而终没於大洋。故风暴之活动於中国境内者,凡五。此外有台风三,均未登     

军用气象之中心工作弹道风之测算法

近世战术,全仗科学,尽人皆知。然若仅有坚甲利兵,而於天时地理,未能预测,则亦往往归於失败。挽近以来,飞航事业,突飞猛进,将来空中之战争,较之陆地海洋,尤为重要。故气象一科,亦为近世研究战术者所不可或缺之知识;即以炮兵而论,其需要气象学上之知识,亦复不少。兹篇所述,为弹道风之测算法;盖炮弹在空中之路径,常受大气中气流之影响而改变。故欲求其炮无处发,发而命     

近五十年我国西北地区降水强度变化特征

鉴于近五十年来我国西北东部降水减少、西部降水增多的现象, 本文根据中国气象局信息中心提供的西北及内蒙古自治区日降水资料集, 利用筛选后的西北186个测站1958～2005年的数据, 对四季西北东、西部不同强度降水的降水量、降水日数、降水强度变化进行了分析。结果表明: 近五十年来, 中国西北地区降水以强降水为主, 较强以上强度降水占总降水日数的5%, 但其降水量占总降水量75%; 西北东部不同强度的降水都减少, 而西部只有弱降水减少, 其他强度的降水都增加, 且西北西部中等以上强度的降水增加较显著; 弱降水的总量减少, 弱降水的强度却加大, 强降水强度增强, 而极强降水强度却减弱; 降水的日数变化是降水量变化的主要原因。     

近50年广东省分级降水的时空分布特征及其变化趋势的研究

利用广东省86个常规气象观测站1961—2010年的逐日降水资料,分析近50年广东省降水气候特征,探讨不同等级降水空间分布及随时间变化特征。结果表明:广东省降水丰沛,年均降水量多为1 500~2 000 mm;降水气候特征的区域差异较大,不同区域降水量与降水日数分布差异显著;各月的降水日数差异没有降水量月分布的差异明显,非汛期的日降水量较小,而汛期降水日数多且日降水量大;小雨日和中雨日的区域差异小,大雨日、暴雨日、大暴雨日的大值中心主要集中在广东省的三大暴雨中心地区 (清远中心、阳江中心、海陆丰中心),雨日量级分布大致由北向南逐渐增强,且随着降水等级的增加降雨日数迅速减少;小雨、中雨和大雨的降水贡献率均由粤北地区向沿海地区递减,暴雨和大暴雨的贡献率由粤北向沿海递增;小雨日数显著减少、大雨以上日数略有增多,总降水日数也呈减少趋势;小雨和中雨的贡献率呈减少趋势,大雨以上贡献率增多,使年均降水量呈增多趋势。      

GRAPES千米尺度模式在西南复杂地形区降水预报偏差与成因初探

利用2019年夏季（6—8月）西南复杂地形区地面观测站逐时和逐日降水量观测数据,从降水量和降水频率入手,对同期GRAPES-Meso 3 km业务模式短期（36 h以内）降水预报性能,特别是在不同典型地貌区—四川盆地子区、云贵高原北部子区和南部子区、青藏高原东缘山地子区的预报偏差进行细致评估与分析。结果表明:（1）GRAPES-Meso 3 km模式能合理地刻画出西南复杂地形区夏季日降水和日内尺度降水的主要特征,以及小时降水频次-强度的基本关系。（2）在各子区,模式日降水量（频率）预报表现为清晰的正偏差,正偏差在盆地子区最显著,为观测值的1.1倍（0.3倍）;日降水量正偏差主要由强降水日降水量预报偏大引起,但频率正偏差在云贵高原南、北子区与其他两个子区不同,主要是中小雨日数预报偏多的贡献;强降水（中小雨）落区预报存在明显（轻微）偏大倾向,强降水预报落区偏大频率在青藏高原东缘山地子区最高,达82.8%,在云贵高原南部子区最低,为53.6%。（3）日循环上,各时次小时降水量（频率）预报整体偏大,且主要正偏差出现在观测的夜雨峰值时段,其中海拔1200 m以下区域的降水频率正偏差从夜间峰值区延续到中午,模式偏强的日降水量预报往往表现为日内偏长的降水时长或小时降水空报。（4）诊断分析显示,模式在四川盆地区突出的夏季日降水预报正偏差是模式对流层低层在云贵高原南-东南侧偏强的西南风预报与西南地区特殊地形结合的产物。      

SPATIOTEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION CHARACTERISTICS AND VARIATION TRENDS OF HIERARCHICAL PRECIPITATION IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE OVER THE PAST 50 YEARS

The climatic characteristics of the precipitation in Guangdong province over the past 50 years were analyzed based on the daily rainfall datasets of 86 stations from 1961 to 2010. The rainfall was divided into five categories according to its intensity, and their spatiotemporal characteristics and variation trends were investigated. The annual rainfall amount was within 1,500 to 2,000 mm over most parts of Guangdong, but substantial differences of rainfall amount and rainy days were found among different parts of the province. There were many rainy days in the dry seasons (October to March), but the daily rainfall amounts are small. The rainy seasons (April to September) have not only many rainy days but also heavy daily rainfall amounts. The spatial distributions of light rainy days (1 mm 100 mm) are generally concentrated in three regions, Qingyuan, Yangjiang, and Haifeng/Lufeng. The average rainfall amount for rainy days increases form the north to the south of Guangdong, while decreasing as the rainfall intensity increases. The contributions from light, moderate and heavy rain to the total rainfall decreases form the north to the south. The annual rainy days show a decreasing trend in the past 50 years. The light rainy days decreased significantly while the heavy, rainstorm and downpour rainy days increased slightly. The annual total rainfall amount increased over the past 50 years, which was contributed by heavy, rainstorm and downpour rains, while the contribution from light and moderate rains decreased.     

Long-term variability of occurrence of precipitation forms in winter in Kraków, Poland

The paper discusses long-term change in snowfall, rainfall and mixed precipitation viewed in conjunction with air temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter (December–February). In the study of contemporary climate change and its effect on the hydrological cycle it is useful to focus on winter precipitation forms. A 146-year secular observation series from Kraków, spanning the period 1863–2008, was used to extract data on the number of days with precipitation and on precipitation amount broken down by form. Statistically significant trends were found in total and mixed precipitation, but not in snowfall and rainfall. The climate warming effect has contributed to a material decrease in the snowfall to total winter precipitation ratio during the second half of the 20th c. The highest impact of air temperature was found in the wintertime variation in number of days with snowfall while the NAO had a significant influence on the frequency and amount of both rainfall and snowfall.     

一次梅雨锋暴雨过程数值模拟的云微物理参数化敏感性研究

梅雨锋暴雨中的云微物理过程对降水的演变有着重要影响。本文通过WRF模式（3.4.1版本）,针对2018年6月29～30日一次梅雨锋背景下的暴雨过程进行数值模拟,分别采用了Morrison、Thompson和MY云微物理参数化方案进行对比分析,结果发现:（1）三个方案模拟的背景场在天气尺度上,都与ERA5再分析资料一致,能够模拟出有利于强降水发生的环流场。云微物理过程对梅雨期暴雨的局地环流有着显著影响,不同方案存在明显差异,本次过程中,Thompson方案模拟出更强的局地环流系统变率和上升气流。三个方案的模拟降水均有所夸大,小时降水率始终大于观测值。冰相粒子融化或雨滴搜集云滴的高估可能是造成降水模拟值偏强的重要原因之一,总体来看,Morrison方案的模拟效果相对最优。（2）冰相粒子融化、雨滴搜集云滴是雨滴增长的关键源项,蒸发则是其最重要的汇项。总的来说,雨滴对云滴的搜集量大于冰相粒子融化。但上述过程在不同方案中存在空间上的差异,从而使得模拟降水的空间分布存在差异。（3）Thompson方案中,冰相粒子融化量最大,雨滴蒸发项显著大于其它两个方案,在底层表现得最为明显。同时,该方案水汽凝结效应最强,使得雨滴搜集更多云滴。该方案模拟的雨滴最多,降水最强。该方案中凝华的主要产物为雪,且其在与过冷水碰并增长过程中占主导地位,故模拟的雪最多。（4）Morrison方案中,水汽主要凝华为雪和少量霰（冰晶忽略不计）;Thompson方案中水汽基本凝华为雪,其它冰相粒子极少;MY方案中,水汽主要凝华为雪和冰晶,冰晶总量略少于雪,但显著大于其它方案。（5）云滴在凇附过程中的总体贡献大于雨滴。Morrison和MY方案中,霰粒子搜集云滴增长的量均最大。Morrison方案中,其它凇附过程不同程度发挥作用,而MY方案中,其它凇附过程几乎可忽略不计。并且,霰粒子搜集云滴的增长量大于凝华过程产生的雪粒子总量。贝吉龙及凇附效应的差异,是不同方案中冰相粒子分布差异的关键原因之一。     

Effect of offshore troughs on the South India erratic summer monsoon rainfall in June 2017

The onset and advance of southwest monsoon are accompanied by the appearance of the offshore trough along the southwest coast of India. This offshore trough escorts a deluge of rainfall to the southwest coast, and sometimes rainfall band moves eastward further into south India. These broad observations were noticed during the summer monsoon of June 2017. Meteorological agencies and media had reported a huge amount of rainfall over the southwest coast of India during the month. But, in the far interior of south India, rainfall was less. Due to the less rainfall, water resources depleted, which affected local farmers and common man of south India. The confused views of the common man on southwest coast rainfall could be due to lack of understanding related to various factors affecting rainfall over the same region. This article is an endeavor to address the preliminary understanding of the southwest coast rainfall during June 2017, with more stress on offshore troughs. The study begins with area-averaged rainfall statistics over south, southwest, and southeast India by employing satellite and rain gauge merged rainfall datasets. Area averaged analysis revealed offshore trough contributed 80 % of rainfall over the South West India, 68 % over South East India, contributing to an overall 75 % over south India in 2017. To identify offshore trough position and strength in the reanalysis and model simulations, a new method called VSV (Vertical Shear of Vorticity) method was introduced. The computed offshore troughs were categorized into Active, Normal, and Feeble based on the strength of meridional gradient of mean sea level pressure and 850 hPa horizontal winds. The contribution due to each category of the offshore trough over different sub-regions was investigated to find out the effect of the offshore trough to total rainfall. Dynamic and thermodynamic features of these categories of the offshore trough were investigated by using proxies like equivalent potential temperature and moisture flux convergence. We found that during active offshore trough an eastward propagation of rain bands persists, which was explained by using moisture flux convergence and equivalent potential temperature at different levels of the atmosphere.     

大降雨型滑坡临界雨量及潜势预报模型研究

通过对湖北省1975～2002年发生的194次滑坡个例进行分析发现：滑坡时间主要发生在5-8月,占全年总次数的80％左右,与多年月平均雨量分布比较一致;滑坡区域主要位于湖北西部山地,高频中心在三峡库区;滑坡与前期降雨尤其是大降雨关系非常密切,大降雨型滑坡占滑坡总次数的63．1％。利用实效雨量计算方法,确定了大降雨型滑坡临界雨量,以此为依据建立了潜势预报模型。     

开鲁县1954—2011年降水日数及降水量变化分析

利用开鲁气象站1954—2011年逐日降水量数据,分析了近58a降水量和降水日数的年、季变化趋势和气候倾向率以及4—10月不同等级降水日数和降水量的比例。结果表明:(1)开鲁58a平均年降水量为332.5mm,年平均降水日数64d,占全年总日数的17.5%,日降水量强度仅5.2mm;(2)年降水量与降水日数呈显著的正相关关系,降水日数多,降水量则多;(3)近58a年降水日数和降水量均呈显著的减少变化趋势,降水日数减少1.8d/10a,降水量减少13.2mm/10a;特别是1999—2011年日降水强度明显减小,年平均降水量仅277.5mm,比前45a平均减少了2成,春夏季干旱突出;(4)降水量和降水日数季节分配不均,夏季降水量占全年的70.3%,雨季集中,旱季明显;(5)作物生长季(4—10月)降水量级少,有效降水日数少,因此,发生干旱的概率高,特别是季节连旱,不利于作物的生长发育,严重制约着农牧业生产的发展。     

长江流域1960-2004年极端强降水时空变化趋势

Recent trends of the rainfall, intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation (EP) over the Yangtze River Basin are analyzed in this paper. Since the mid-1980s the rainfall of EP in the basin has significantly increased, and the most significant increment occurred in the southeast mid-lower reaches, and southwest parts of the basin. Summer witnessed the most remarkable increase in EP amount. Both the intensity and frequency of EP events have contributed to the rising of EP amount, but increase in frequency contributed more to the increasing trend of EP than that in intensity. The average intervals between adjacent two EP events have been shortened. It is also interesting to note that the monthly distribution of EP events in the upper basin has changed, and the maximum frequency is more likely to occur in June rather than in July. The synchronization of the maximum frequency month between the upper and mid-lower reaches might have also increased the risk of heavy floods in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River.