A documentary-derived climatic chronology for South Africa, 1820–1900

There is a paucity of detailed information regarding the climate of South Africa for the period preceding reliable meteorological instrumentation. Documentary evidence of climatic change, including missionary, official and archival material, is a useful surrogate source of information that is used to extend the rainfall record in the southern and south-eastern parts of the country. Chronologies of yearly rainfall variations for these areas are deduced from a detailed study of various documentary sources. The nature and extent of extreme events such as drought and flood episodes are identified. Corroboration of the chronologies with relevant dendrochronological and meteorological data enhances the documentary-derived weather chronology. Frequency analysis of rainfall for both the eastern and southern Cape, for the periods 1820–1900 and 1900–1980, indicates that the pattern of rainfall variability in these areas has not changed greatly over the past two centuries. Documentary evidence is shown to be a viable means of reconstructing past climates of areas in South Africa devoid of long and detailed instrumental records.     

Preliminary climatology of southern Africa extreme weather: 1973–1992

Summary Preliminary climatological statistics of extreme weather events over the southern Africa region are established through analysis of daily weather maps of the South African Weather Bureau for a twenty year peiod, 1973–1992. Influences of global warming and inter-annual variability imposed by El Nino events, amongst others, are sought. Notable trends include a decrease in the frequency of station days with rainfall > 70 mm and an increase in station days with temperature > 38°C. Correlations offer some insights to extreme climate associations. Lows over the land in the west and over the sea to the east display consistent interannual variability, despite opposing rainfall regimes. Agreement in extreme temperature statistics in all regions suggest that drought is widespread over southern Africa. Rainfall in the north is negatively related to lows over the sea to the south. A potential mechanism underlying the inverse relationship between midlatitude and sub-tropical storminess is the development of a vorticity dipole associated with the westerly jet stream. This is investigated in an El Nino-influenced case study.With 9 Figures     

Cut-off Lows in the South Africa region and their contribution to precipitation

The contribution of Cut-off Lows (CoLs) to precipitation and extreme rainfall frequency in South Africa has been quantified from 402 station records over the period 1979–2006. Firstly, 500 hPa CoL trajectories over Southern Africa and surrounding oceans were determined and their features thoroughly analyzed. In a second step, using daily precipitable water, outgoing long wave radiation data and station rainfall records, an area was defined where the occurrence of CoLs is associated with rainfall over South Africa. CoLs transiting in the 2.5°E–32.5°E/20°S–45°S are more likely to produce precipitation over the country. When 500 hPa CoLs are centered just off the west coast of the country (around 15°E/32.5°S) their impact is substantial in term of daily rainfall intensity and spatial coverage. CoL rainy days have been studied and it is shown that they significantly contribute to precipitation in South Africa, more strongly along the south and east coasts as well as inland, over the transition zone between the summer and winter rainfall domains where they contribute between 25 to more than 35 % of annual accumulation. At the country scale, CoL rainfall is more intense and widespread in spring than during other seasons. Over the analyzed period, a significant trend in annual CoLs’ frequency shows an increase of about 25 %. This increase is mainly realized in spring and in a lesser extent in summer. This trend is accompanied by a significant increase in the frequency of CoL rainy days specifically along the south coast and over the East of the country during the spring–summer period. In parallel, it is shown that from late spring until summer CoLs’ frequency varies significantly accordingly with large scale circulation modes of the Southern Hemisphere such as the Pacific South American pattern (PSA). This positive trend in CoLs’ frequency may be related with the positive trend in the PSA during the spring–summer period over the three last decades.     

Climatic change over the Lowveld of South Africa

There has been a 38% decrease in expected annual rainfall totals over the Lowveld, in the eastern part of South Africa, during the last two decades. The downward trend in mean annual rainfall is not replicated in the rest of the summer rainfall region above the escarpment. Rainfall variability over the Lowveld has been increasing since about the 1950s, although the increase in variability appears to have been slowing down in more recent years. Changes in the frequency and intensity of El Niño/Southern Oscillation extreme events are only partly responsible for the observed desiccation and increase in rainfall variability. The CSIRO 9-level general circulation model simulates, for 2 × CO₂ conditions, an insignificant decrease of 10% in the annual mean and a slight increase in the inter-annual variability of rainfall over the Lowveld. Other general circulation models likewise simulate only small changes in annual mean rainfall over the region. However, the simulated increase in rainfall variability by the CSIRO 9-level model is likely to be conservative since the model, being linked to a slab ocean, is unable to represent important features of ocean-atmosphere coupling in the region. Significant changes in the frequencies of extreme drought events and of heavy rains in the Lowveld are likely to occur even with only small changes in the rainfall climatology of the region.     

Cloud bands over southern Africa: seasonality, contribution to rainfall variability and modulation by the MJO

Tropical-extratropical cloud band systems over southern Africa, known as tropical temperate troughs (TTTs), are known to contribute substantially to South African summer rainfall. This study performs a comprehensive assessment of the seasonal cycle and rainfall contribution of TTTs by using a novel object-based strategy that explicitly tracks these systems for their full life cycle. The methodology incorporates a simple assignment of station rainfall data to each event, thereby creating a database containing detailed rainfall characteristics for each TTT. This is used to explore the importance of TTTs for rain days and climatological rainfall totals in October–March. Average contributions range from 30 to 60 % with substantial spatial heterogeneity observed. TTT rainfall contributions over the Highveld and eastern escarpment are lower than expected. A short analysis of TTT rainfall variability indicates TTTs provide substantial, but not dominant, intraseasonal and interannual variability in station rainfall totals. TTTs are however responsible for a high proportion of heavy rainfall days. Of 52 extreme rainfall events in the 1979–1999 period, 30 are associated with these tropical-extratropical interactions. Cut-off lows were included in the evolution of 6 of these TTTs. The study concludes with an analysis of the question: does the Madden-Julian Oscillation influence the intensity of TTT rainfall over South Africa? Results suggest a weak but significant suppression (enhancement) of intensity during phase 1(6).     

Simulation of the variability and extremes of daily rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon for present and future times in a global time-slice experiment

In this study the simulation of the variability and extremes of daily rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon for the present-day and the future climate is investigated. This is done on the basis of a global time-slice experiment (TSL) with the ECHAM4 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) at a high horizontal resolution of T106. The first time-slice (period: 1970–1999) represents the present-day climate and the second (2060–2089) the future climate. Moreover, observational rainfall data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP, 1997–2002) and rainfall data from the ECMWF re-analysis (ERA, 1958–2001) are considered. ERA reveals serious deficiencies in its representation of the variability and extremes of daily rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon. These are mainly a severe overestimation of the frequency of wet days over the oceans and in the Himalayas, where also the rainfall intensity is overestimated. Further, ERA shows unrealistically heavy rainfall events over the tropical Indian Ocean. The ECHAM4 atmospheric GCM at a horizontal resolution of T106, on the other hand, simulates the variability and extremes of daily rainfall in good agreement with the observations. The only marked deficiencies are an underestimation of the rainfall intensity on the west coast of the Indian peninsula and in Bangladesh, an overestimation over the tropical Indian Ocean, due to an erroneous northwestward extension of the tropical convergence zone, and an overestimation of the frequency of wet days in Tibet. Further, heavy rainfall events are relatively strong in the centre of the Indian peninsula. For the future, TSL predicts large increases in the rainfall intensity over the tropical Indian Ocean as well as in northern Pakistan and northwest India, but decreases in southern Pakistan, in the centre of the Indian peninsula, and over the western part of the Bay of Bengal. The frequency of wet days is markedly increased over the tropical Indian Ocean and decreased over the northern part of the Arabian Sea and in Tibet. The intensity of heavy rainfall events is generally increased in the future, with large increases over the Arabian Sea and the tropical Indian Ocean, in northern Pakistan and northwest India as well as in northeast India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar.     

Variability of rainfall characteristics over the South Coast region of South Africa

Thirty years of daily rainfall data are analysed for the South Coast region of South Africa, a region which experiences substantial rainfall variability and frequent severe drought and flood events, but whose climate variability has not been much researched. It is found that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts an influence since most wet years correspond to mature phase La Niña years. ENSO also influences South Coast rainfall via increases in the number of cut-off lows in southern South Africa during mature phase La Niña years. A statistically significant correlation between the Niño 3.4 index and monthly rainfall totals, and between this index and the frequency of wet days, exists for two summer months and also for June. There are also changes in the heavy rainfall day frequencies from one decade to another. Examination of NCEP re-analyses indicates that wet (dry) years result from an equatorward (poleward) shift in the subtropical jet, cyclonic (anticyclonic) pressure anomalies over the South Atlantic and South Africa, and increased (decreased) density of mid-latitude cyclonic systems.     

Moisture transport between the South Atlantic Ocean and southern Africa: relationships with summer rainfall and associated dynamics

Moisture exchange between the South Atlantic and southern Africa is examined in this study through zonal moisture transport. Along the west coast of southern Africa, a multivariate analysis of the zonal flow of moisture computed from NCEP-DOE AMIP II Re-analyses reveals a primary mode of variability typical of variations in intensity and of the latitudinal migration of the circulation associated with the midlatitude westerlies and the South Atlantic anticyclone. In austral summer (January–February), this mode, referred to as the South Atlantic midlatitude mode, is found to be well correlated with rainfall over southern Africa (i.e. to the south of the upper lands surrounding the Congo basin). Its positive/negative phases are found to correspond with surface pressures changes over the South Atlantic region in austral summer when the South Atlantic anticyclone is shifted northward/southward respectively. Such changes are accompanied by dipole-like SST anomalies in the midlatitude South Atlantic Ocean, while simultaneous SST anomalies with a similar structure are also found over South Indian Ocean regions. In January–February, positive/negative events linked to the South Atlantic midlatitude mode are marked by meridional shifts (northward/southward) and weakening/strengthening of the ITCZ over the southern tropics, together with modulations in intensity (weakened/sustained) of the Angola low, which could act as a tropical source of moisture for Tropical Temperate Troughs (TTTs). In association with a strengthened/weakened zonal component of the southern extension of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ), this could modulate the meridional transfer of moisture south of 15°S to the advantage/detriment of Angolan coastal regions, where above/below rainfall are expected. Variations in the latitudinal position (northward/southward) of the South Atlantic anticyclone, and thus of the midlatitude westerlies, are also found to reduce/favour moisture advection towards southern Africa subtropics allowing the southern Indian trades to penetrate less/more over the subcontinent south of 25°S. This would create a situation where convection processes are inhibited/supported within the SICZ/TTTs region resulting in drier/wetter conditions locally for positive/negative events respectively.     

SST variability in the South Indian Ocean and associated circulation and rainfall patterns over Southern Africa

Summary A general circulation model is used to study the response of the atmosphere to an idealised sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern (warm throughout the southern midlatitudes, cool in the tropics) in the South Indian Ocean region. The anomaly imposed on monthly SST climatology captures the essence of patterns observed in the South Indian Ocean during both ENSO events and multidecadal epochs, and facilitates diagnosis of the model response. A previous study with this anomaly imposed in the model examined differences in the response between that on the seasonal scale (favours enhancement of the original SST anomaly) and that on the decadal scale (favours damping of the anomaly). The current study extends that work firstly by comparing the response on the intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual scales, and secondly, by assessing the changes in the circulation and rainfall over the adjoining African landmass.It is found that the atmospheric response is favourable for enhancement of the original SST anomaly on scales up to, and including, annual. However, as the scale becomes interannual (i.e., 15–21 months after imposition of the anomaly), the model response suggests that damping of the original SST anomaly becomes likely. Compared to the shorter scale response, the perturbation pressure and wind distribution on the interannual scale is shifted poleward, and is more reminiscent of the decadal response. Winds are now stronger over the warm anomaly in the southern midlatitudes suggesting enhanced surface fluxes, upper ocean mixing, and consequently, a damping of the anomaly.Examination of the circulation and rainfall patterns indicates that there are significant anomalies over large parts of southern Africa during the spring, summer and autumn seasons for both short (intraseasonal to interannual) and decadal scales. It appears that rainfall anomalies are associated with changes in the advection of moist tropical air from the Indian Ocean and its related convergence over southern Africa. Over eastern equatorial Africa, the austral autumn season (the main wet season) showed rainfall increases on all time scales, while parts of central to eastern subtropical southern Africa were dry. The signals during summer were more varied. Spring showed generally dry conditions over the eastern half of southern Africa on both short and decadal time scales, with wet areas confined to the west. In all cases, the magnitude of the rainfall anomalies accumulated over a 90 day season were of the order of 90–180 mm, and therefore represent a significant fraction of the annual total of many areas. It appears that relatively modest SST anomalies in the South Indian Ocean can lead to sizeable rainfall anomalies in the model. Although precipitation in general circulation models tends to be less accurately simulated than many other variables, the model results, together with previous observational work, emphasize the need for ongoing monitoring of SST in this region.With 14 Figures     

Changes in Regional Heavy Rainfall Events in China during 1961–2012

A new technique for identifying regional climate events, the Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Events(OITREE), was applied to investigate the characteristics of regional heavy rainfall events in China during the period1961–2012. In total, 373 regional heavy rainfall events(RHREs) were identified during the past 52 years. The East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) had an important influence on the annual variations of China's RHRE activities, with a significant relationship between the intensity of the RHREs and the intensity of the Mei-yu. Although the increase in the frequency of those RHREs was not significant, China experienced more severe and extreme regional rainfall events in the 1990 s. The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the northern part of South China were the regions in the country most susceptible to extreme precipitation events. Some stations showed significant increasing trends in the southern part of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the northern part of South China, while parts of North China, regions between Guangxi and Guangdong, and northern Sichuan showed decreasing trends in the accumulated intensity of RHREs.The spatial distribution of the linear trends of events' accumulated intensity displayed a similar so-called "southern flooding and northern drought" pattern over eastern China in recent decades.     

The Extreme Precipitation Event of 11 to 16 February 1996 over South Africa

Summary  The extreme precipitation event of 11 to 16 February 1996 was one of four significant events during the 1995/96 rainfall season over southern Africa. Extensive flooding and related damage was recorded at this time, with historical records showing one of the highest flood peaks of the past century. This extreme event is analysed using a combination of mesoscale numerical modelling and Lagrangian trajectory analysis, allowing a comprehensive three-dimensional reconstruction of the associated atmospheric structure and its evolution. The adjustments in the circulation patterns as well as the timing and contribution of different moisture source regions are clearly important in influencing the duration and intensity of this extreme rainfall event over southern Africa. The moisture that contributed to precipitation during the event, as well as to the south-western part of the country, was imported mainly from the Indian Ocean tothe east and south-east, suggesting that the equatorial Indian Ocean may not be the predominant source of moisture as previously believed. Received October 13, 1998 Revised December 28, 1998     

Potential impacts of afforestation on climate change and extreme events in Nigeria

Afforestation is usually thought as a good approach to mitigate impacts of warming over a region. This study presents an argument that afforestation may have bigger impacts than originally thought by previous studies. The study investigates the impacts of afforestation on future climate and extreme events in Nigeria, using a regional climate model (RegCM3), forced with global climate model simulations. The impacts of seven afforestation options on the near future (2031–2050, under A1B scenario) climate and the extreme events are investigated. RegCM3 replicates essential features in the present-day (1981–2000) climate and the associated extreme events, and adequately simulates the seasonal variations over the ecological zones in the country. However, the model simulates the seasonal climate better over the northern ecological zones than over the southern ecological zones. The simulated spatial distribution of the extreme events agrees well with the observation, though the magnitude of the simulated events is smaller than the observed. The study shows that afforestation in Nigeria could have both positive and negative future impacts on the climate change and extreme events in the country. While afforestation reduces the projected global warming and enhances rainfall over the afforested area (and over coastal zones), it enhances the warming and reduces the rainfall over the north-eastern part of the country. In addition, the afforestation induces more frequent occurrence of extreme rainfall events (flooding) over the coastal region and more frequent occurrence of heat waves and droughts over the semi-arid region. The positive and negative impacts of the afforestation are not limited to Nigeria; they extend to the neighboring countries. While afforestation lowers the warming and enhances rainfall over Benin Republic, it increases the warming and lowers the rainfall over Niger, Chad and Cameroon. The result of the study has important implication for the ongoing climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts in Nigeria.     

Improving the accuracy of tipping-bucket rain records using disaggregation techniques

We present a methodology able to infer the influence of rainfall measurement errors on the reliability of extreme rainfall statistics. We especially focus on systematic mechanical errors affecting the most popular rain intensity measurement instrument, namely the tipping-bucket rain-gauge (TBR). Such uncertainty strongly depends on the measured rainfall intensity (RI) with systematic underestimation of high RIs, leading to a biased estimation of extreme rain rates statistics. Furthermore, since intense rain-rates are usually recorded over short intervals in time, any possible correction strongly depends on the time resolution of the recorded data sets. We propose a simple procedure for the correction of low resolution data series after disaggregation at a suitable scale, so that the assessment of the influence of systematic errors on rainfall statistics become possible. The disaggregation procedure is applied to a 40-year long rain-depth dataset recorded at hourly resolution by using the IRP (Iterated Random Pulse) algorithm. A set of extreme statistics, commonly used in urban hydrology practice, have been extracted from simulated data and compared with the ones obtained after direct correction of a 12-year high resolution (1 min) RI series. In particular, the depth–duration–frequency curves derived from the original and corrected data sets have been compared in order to quantify the impact of non-corrected rain intensity measurements on design rainfall and the related statistical parameters. Preliminary results suggest that the IRP model, due to its skill in reproducing extreme rainfall intensities at fine resolution in time, is well suited in supporting rainfall intensity correction techniques.     

Land Cover, Rainfall and Land-Surface Albedo in West Africa

Land surface albedo is an important variable in General Circulation Models (GCMs). When land cover is modified through anthropogenic land use, changes in land-surface albedo may produce atmospheric subsidence and reduction of rainfall. In this study we examined albedo time series and their relationships with rainfall, land cover, and population in West Africa. This particular region was selected because it has become a focal point in debates over biophysical impacts of desertification and deforestation. Our analyses revealed that albedo and rainfall were related only modestly at short time scales (monthly and annual) and that mean annual albedo values remained relatively stable from 1982–1989 over a widerange of climatic and vegetation zones in West Africa. The relationship between long-term mean rainfall and mean albedo was strong and curvilinear(r² = 0.802). The same was true for the relationship betweenpercent tree cover and mean albedo (r² = 0.659). These results suggest that long-term climate patterns, which control vegetation type and canopy structure, have greater influence on albedo than short-term fluctuations in rainfall. Our results reinforce other recent studies based on satellite data that have questioned the extent and pervasiveness of desertification in West Africa.     

A study of climate and weather variability over the tropical southwest Indian Ocean

Summary The climatology and variability of summer convection and circulation over the tropical southwest Indian Ocean is investigated using satellite imagery, routine synoptic observations, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data, sea surface temperatures (SST) and areal averaged rainfall departures. OLR has a –0.90 correlation with rainfall departures and the OLR minimum (ITCZ) in January and February lies across the 10°S latitude, extending further south near Madagascar. The intensity of ITCZ convection is greatest in the longitudes 20–35°E over northern Zambia and is considerably reduced over the SW Indian Ocean. Spatial correlations are analyzed for standardized departures of OLR, rainfall and SST. The correlations change sign in a coherent fashion, creating a climatic dipole between southern Africa and the SW Indian Ocean. Interannual trends are examined through analysis of January–February zonal and meridional wind indices constructed from significantly correlated variables at Zimbabwe, Madagascar and Mauritius. Circulation variability is dominated by quasi-decadal cycles and a trend of inereasing westerly winds. Zonal wind shear alternates from easterly (barotropic) to westerly and together with SST appears to regulate the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclogenesis. Areally averaged rainfall departures exhibit 6.25 year cycles in NE Madagascar and 12.5 and 18.75 year cycles in SW Madagascar and Zimbabwe, respectively. Summer rainfall and meridional winds in NE Madagascar and Zimbabwe are out of phase and negatively correlated in most summers. The presence of synoptic weather systems is assessed using daily Hovmoller-type satellite imagery composites. Convective structure is dominated by transient waves in the 10°–20°S latitude band, with periods of 15–20 days common. The waves are more prominent in summers with increased easterly shear and contribute to fluctuations in rainfall over SE Africa.With 8 Figures     

Seasonality and time scales in the relationship between global SST and African rainfall

The main goal of this study is to determine the oceanic regions corresponding to variability in African rainfall and seasonal differences in the atmospheric teleconnections. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) has been applied in order to extract the dominant patterns of linear covariability. An ensemble of six simulations with the global atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4, forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice boundary variability, is used in order to focus on the SST-related part of African rainfall variability. Our main finding is that the boreal summer rainfall (June–September mean) over Africa is more affected by SST changes than in boreal winter (December–March mean). In winter, there is a highly significant link between tropical African rainfall and Indian Ocean and eastern tropical Pacific SST anomalies, which is closely related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, long-term changes are found to be associated with SST changes in the Indian and tropical Atlantic Oceans, thus, showing that the tropical Atlantic plays a critical role in determining the position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Since ENSO is less in summer, the tropical Pacific and the Indian Oceans are less important for African rainfall. The African summer monsoon is strongly influenced by SST variations in the Gulf of Guinea, with a response of opposite sign over the Sahelian zone and the Guinean coast region. SST changes in the subtropical and extratropical oceans mostly take place on decadal time scales and are responsible for low-frequency rainfall fluctuations over West Africa. The modelled teleconnections are highly consistent with the observations. The agreement for most of the teleconnection patterns is remarkable and suggests that the modelled rainfall anomalies serve as suitable predictors for the observed changes.     

A methodology to classify extreme rainfall events in the western mediterranean area

Summary From a large data set (1927–1992) of rainfall rate in Barcelona, the relationship between maximum rainfall rates for time intervals between 5 minutes and 24 hours has been investigated. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves and their master equation for every return period in Barcelona have been obtained. A cluster analysis has yielded four main classes of extreme rainfall events in this area, corresponding to durations shorter than 35 minutes, 1 hour, 2–6 hours and those longer than 6 hours respectively. An index to classify extreme rainfall events has been proposed. This index gives some information about the severity of storms taking into account the contribution of different scales implied in rainfall processes.     

亚洲夏季风30～60天季节内振荡对中国东部地区持续性极端降水的影响

本文基于1979～2015年中国台站观测的格点化高分辨率降水和NCEP II大气再分析逐日资料,探讨了亚洲季风区夏季30～60天大气季节内振荡（ISO）与长江中下游地区持续性降水异常的关系,重点揭示了南亚和东亚子季风区ISO的相互作用及二者协同引起长江中下游持续性极端降水的物理机制。合成分析表明,南亚和东亚ISO是通过高层辐散环流发生相互作用。在ISO位相1～3（5～7）,异常活跃（抑制）对流从赤道印度洋北传至孟加拉湾—印度次大陆区域,其伴随的高层异常辐散（辐合）环流通过补偿效应,引起南海—热带西北太平洋的异常高层辐合（辐散）,加强了局地的异常下沉（上升）运动,有利于南海—西北太平洋的异常抑制（活跃）对流发展并维持。南海—西北太平洋的异常抑制（活跃）对流伴随着显著的斜压散度,并进一步激发出一个连接南海和长江中下游的经向垂直环流圈,引起长江中下游强烈的异常上升（下沉）运动和低层水汽辐合（辐散）,使得降水持续性偏多（少）,极端降水的发生概率持续地偏高（低）,有利于（不利于）形成持续性极端降水事件。研究还表明,亚洲季风区ISO的强度存在显著的年际变化,并对长江中下游持续性极端降水的发生频次和持续时间具有调制作用。在ISO偏强（弱）年,长江中下游持续性极端降水的发生频次较高（低）,且持续时间较长（短）。     

Quantifying Changes in Extreme Weather Events in Response to Warmer Global Temperature

Global warming is expected to affect both the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, though projections of the response of these events to climate warming remain highly uncertain. The range of changes reported in the climate modelling literature is very large, sometimes leading to contradictory results for a given extreme weather event. Much of this uncertainty stems from the incomplete understanding of the physics of extreme weather processes, the lack of representation of mesoscale processes in coarse-resolution climate models, and the effect of natural climate variability at multi-decadal time scales. However, some of the spread in results originates simply from the variety of scenarios for future climate change used to drive climate model simulations, which hampers the ability to make generalizations about predicted changes in extreme weather events. In this study, we present a meta-analysis of the literature on projected future extreme weather events in order to quantify expected changes in weather extremes as a function of a common metric of global mean temperature increases. We find that many extreme weather events are likely to be significantly affected by global warming. In particular, our analysis indicates that the overall frequency of global tropical cyclones could decrease with global warming but that the intensity of these storms, as well as the frequency of the most intense cyclones could increase, particularly in the northwestern Pacific basin. We also found increases in the intensity of South Asian monsoonal rainfall, the frequency of global heavy precipitation events, the number of North American severe thunderstorm days, North American drought conditions, and European heatwaves, with rising global mean temperatures. In addition, the periodicity of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation may decrease, which could, in itself, influence extreme weather frequency in many areas of the climate system.