天山各分区地震活动性与能量积累阶段关系初探

本文研究了天山各地震构造区的地震活动特征与所处能量积累阶段之间的关系，在此基础上分析了天山各分区当前地震危险性。初步得到处于不同能量积累阶段的天山不同地震构造区的地震活动特点及其所反映的能量积累状态。认为天山地区的地震活动性既受区域构造运动强度的影响，又受地震构造所处的能量积累阶段的影响。对于构造运动非常强烈的地区，正确判断其目前所处能量积累阶段，可以对未来地震震级上限有比较准确的判断；而对现今地震活动相对较弱地区所处能量积累阶段的判断，可使我们对潜在地震危险有较充分的认识。研究表明，南天山西段各区能量积累水平大都进入中、后期阶段，地震活动水平高，地震危险性明显高于北天山和中天山各区（段）。北天山各分区以及中天山地区能量积累多处于早、中期阶段．     

基于WebGIS的地震复发周期与危险性分析

根据地震复发周期模型, 利用现有的地质构造等资料把南北地震带划分为若干相对独立的活动构造区, 对能量积累阶段及地震危险性的预测建立相应的数学模型, 并构建基于WebGIS的网络计算平台, 由客户端任意在研究区选择构造分区, 并输入所选构造分区相应的计算参数, 提交到集群服务器计算模型进行计算, 对所选构造分区的地震危险性阶段及潜在震级进行预测并把结果以WebGIS方式返回给客户端。 实现了利用远程计算技术与并行算法对活动断裂能量积累与释放过程的模拟计算, 其结果可以为判定地震中短期预测的地点和震级提供依据。     

华北地区的共轭地震构造带

本文采用小地震活动图象和４．０级（Ｍｓ）以上地震震源机制资料的构造分析方法，得到一幅华北地区震源构造在地面的投影分布图，它显示４条ＮＮＥ－ＮＥ向和１条ＮＷＷ－ＮＷ向地震构造带交切成的共轭剪切构造格架。每条地震构造带又由一系列共轭剪切构造组成。由发生在带内的５个大震序列共轭破裂特征发现，共轭地震构造的孕震与控震作用是地震构造带形成的机制。     

南北地震带及邻近区域强震时空分布特征

搜集整理南北地震带区域自史料记载（公元前193年）到2012年9月的强震（Ms≥6.0）资料,初步分析南北地震带及附近区域的地震发震构造活动性和时空分布规律.结果表明,地震一般发生在断层带上,具有空间分布的集群性特征和时间群集性质.研究发现,地震带南段发生6.0≤Ms≤7.9地震次数明显高于北段和中段,而发生Ms≥8.0地震的可能性较低,中段与南段较接近,与北段有明显差异;南北地震带存在明显的纬向、经向强震活动迁移现象,纬向尤其明显;1900年以来,南北地震带已经有4次明显的能量释放阶段,并给出Ms≥6.0地震的震级-频度统计关系式.     

新疆南部构造区带与地震活动状态研究

Based on the studies of earthquake activity, tectonic movement, crustal shortening rate, fault activity, local stress field and historical characteristics of strong earthquake activities in Xinjiang, we divide the south part of Xinjiang into 4 seismotectonic zones, namely, the eastern segment of south Tianshan seismic belt, the Kalpin block, the Kashi-Wuqia junction zone, and the west Kunlun Mountains seismic belt. Using earthquake catalogues from Xinjiang since 1900, and on the basis of integrity analysis of earthquake records in different magnitude ranges, the seismicity state of different seismotectonic zones is analyzed quantificationally by calculating the mean value of annual strain energy release, annual rate of earthquakes with different lower limits of magnitude, b-value, and the parameter m of accelerating strain release model. The characteristic indexes of seismicity state for each of the seismic tectonic zones are then determined, which provide a quantitative basis for earthquake tendency analysis and judgment.     

中国大陆强震构造环境统计分析

基于近10年活断层研究资料和第四代全国抗震设防区划图的成果,对中国大陆有史以来6级以上强震的构造环境进行了统计研究。探讨了各地震区强震的震源区构造类型、发震构造活动方式,分析了各类地震的地表破裂带长度和极震区长轴方位特征,以及强震震源区的区域构造应力场、地球物理场(包括重力异常、壳幔高导层异常、大地热流密度)和现代地壳垂直形变场等特征。     

基于GPS技术的2016年呼图壁M_S6.2地震形变特征研究

利用2013~2017年3期GPS观测资料,通过结合区域构造背景分析呼图壁MS6.2地震震中及附近区域水平运动速率、主应变率、面膨胀率及最大剪应变率动态变化特征。结果表明,呼图壁地震前发震构造南部区域地壳速率高于北部区域运动速率,造成发震构造两盘运动速率不同,地壳能量积蓄。呼图壁地震释放了区域积蓄的应变能量,由于区域构造因素,影响范围较小。震前震中附近区域处于压缩环境,易于聚集应变能量;震时震中区出现面膨胀等值线密集高梯度带,是地壳应变能量交换和释放剧烈区域。震中区最大剪应变变化不大,反映呼图壁地震逆冲性质,最大剪应变高值区对地震危险性有预示作用。     

A Preliminary Study on the New Activity Features of the Lajishan Mountain Fault Zone in Qinghai Province

INTRODUCTIONThe Lajishan Mountainlies onthe northeastern margin of Qinghai_Xizang(Tibet)plateau.It is ageomorphic gradient zone,separatingthe hinterland of Tibetfromthe Loess plateau.The Lajishanfaultis a product of Caledonian movement,havingexperienced m…     

Current tectonic deformation and seismogenic characteristics along the northeast margin of Qinghai -Xizang block

Introduction The northeast margin of Qinghai-Xizang block has become the place with close attentions from geo-specialists at home and abroad for its significant tectonic movement and intensive seismicity. Quite a number of achievements have been obtained from the studies on geological structures and strong earthquake activities (DING, LU, 1989, 1991; GUO, et al, 1992, 2000; GUO, XIANG, 1993; HOU, et al, 1999; Tapponnier, et al, 1990; Gaudemer, et al, 1995). In the Development Program…     

Study on the Genesis of the Yongsheng Earthquake with Ms6.0 on October 27, 2001

On October 27, 2001, a large earthquake with Ms6.0, named the Yongsheng earthquake, occurred along the Jinshajiang segment of Chenghai fault in Yongsheng County, Yuunan Province. It is the largest event to occur along the Chenghai fault in the last 200 years. The seismo-geological survey shows that the seismogenic fault, which is the Jinshajiang segment of Chenghal fault, takes left-lateral strike-slip as its dominant movement pattern. According to differences in vertical motion, motion time, landforms and scales, the Chenhai fault can be divided into eight segments. The Jinshajiang segment has a vertical dislocation rate of 0.4mm/a, far lower than the mean rate of the Chenghai fault, about 2.0 mm/a. It‘ s deduced that the two sides of Jinshajiang segment “stuck“ tightly and hindered the strike-slip of the Chenghai fault. The strong earthquake distribution before this event shows that the Jinshajiang segment was in the seismic gap. The Chenghai fault, as a boundary of tectonic sub-blocks, makes the Northwest Yunnan block and the Middle Yunnan block move clockwise, and their margins move oppositely along the Chenghai fault. In the motion process of the Chenghai fault, structural hindrance and the seismic gap of strong earthquakes are propitious to the concentration and accumulation of structure stress. As a result, the Yongsheng Ms6.0 earthquake occurred. The Sujiazhuang-Shangangfu segment is similar to the Jinshajiang segment with a low vertical motion rate of 0.3 mm/a and in the seismic gap. So it‘s postulated that the segment may become a new structure hindrance, and the Yongsheng Ms6.0 earthquake may trigger the occurrence of future large earthquakes along this segment.     

GPS time-series and its response to M_S=8.1 Kunlunshan earthquake

Introduction With the implementation of the National Climbing Program and ″Crustal Movement Obser- vation Network of China″, the GPS observation has extended widely. At present, GPS monitoring network consists of 25 reference stations, 56 movable stations and more than 1000 regional sta- tions. The reference stations begin their continuous GPS observations from the middle of March 1999. The research in this paper analyzed the law for the coordinate variation of each reference station…     

2015年尼泊尔MS8.1大地震孕育的深层过程与发生的动力学响应

2015年4月25日发生在尼泊尔博克拉M_S8.1大地震的深层动力过程与“地中海-喜马拉雅-南亚地震带”的中段喜马拉雅地震活动带密切相关.这次大地震是该地震强烈活动带上长期以来深部物质与能量强烈交换、运动,并导致构造活动和应力积累的产物.综合分析与研究提出：（1）博克拉M_S8.1大地震的孕育、发生和发展具有长期活动和近年来相邻地带地震活动频繁的背景;这一地带自1505年-2015年,即500多年来相继发生多次M_S≥8.0的大地震.（2）这一地带具有特异的地球物理边界场响应和深层动力过程,显示深部物质的重新分异、调整与能量交换.（3）大地震发生与周边地带应力场分布特异,壳、幔结构与介质属性变异及破裂响应与断层面解的属性相关.（4）喜马拉雅地带的三条北倾断裂带以不同角度向深部延伸、震源位置及浅表层的变形特征尚应深化理解.（5）M_S8.1大地震的发生对相邻地带的波场影响强烈,故应强化高精度地球物理场的观测和探测,以“捕捉”未来可能大地震的孕育与发生.     

Study of the Relation Between the Features of Fault Deformation Tendency Anomaly and Earthquake Activity in the West of China

Using the tendentious accumulation rate of crustal deformation,DC,the spatial distributionfeatures of deformation across fault in the West of China was studied;the regional patterns ofdeformation accumulation induced by fault activity was established and its seismogenicmeaning was discussed.The types of fault deformation evolution in the time domain and thefeatures of change of large extent anomaly in fault deformation which occurred in 1995～1996was analyzed comprehensively.It was indicated definitely that 1995～1996 is the turningpoint of fault network activity in the West of China since the 1990s;it is closely related to thechange of main seismic active regions in the West of China,i.e,the alternation of strong/weak stages and the change of action range of tectonic stress field in the Qinghai-Tibet blockand its environs;and hence it is of medium-and short-term precursor meaning for the changeof the overall pattern of earthquake activity in the West of China in the year 1996.On such abasis,a preliminar     

南北地震带南北段地震迁移现象

对1990年以来南北地震带南段发生的Ms5．0以上地震和北段发生的慨4．5以上地震的迁移现象进行分析。结果表明,在南北地震带南、北段发生的中强地震具有呼应现象,且呈现一定规律,即大致以30°N线为基线对称分布。通过对震源机制的对比分析,发现南段和北段的地震类型不一致,可能与不同的地质构造和作用力有关。     

华北地区强震活动特点研究

华北地区是我国的政治、 经济和文化中心, 也是我国地震多发地区之一。 华北地区历史地震资料记载时间较早且较为连续, 是研究我国强震活动的理想试验场。 选取第三、 第四活动期M≥6.0地震目录作为基础资料研究华北地区强震活动特点。 首先探讨华北地区强震活动与活动地块、 边界带的关系, 然后从时间和空间上分析华北地区强震活动的轮回性阶段及其期幕活动特点, 最后计算未来5年华北地区发生下一次M≥6.0地震的累积概率和条件概率。 研究结果表明: ① 华北地区M≥6.0地震活动主要集中在活动地块的边界带, M≥7.0地震则全部发生在活动地块的边界带上, 同时华北地区地震应变释放速率与边界带的构造活动速率呈线性相关; ② 第四活动期各活跃幕的能量释放均低于第三活动期, 因此华北地区未来仍可能发生M≥6.0地震; ③ 第三、 第四活动期的主体活动区存在显著差异, 且第四活动期的强震活动较第三活动期向东迁移; ④ 在2020年年初发生第四活动期闭幕M≥6.0地震的累积概率为80%左右, 而在2022年年底前发生M≥6.0地震的条件概率为50%。 本研究可为华北地区地震大形势分析和中长期地震危险性预测提供重要参考。     

2019年四川长宁6.0级地震序列时空演化特征及其地震构造环境研究

地震序列类型能够直观地反映构造应力场环境、 地震构造及孕震环境介质的差异性。 主—余型地震多发生在相对均匀的介质环境, 而前—主—余型地震及震群型地震往往发生在复杂的构造环境。 2019年6月17日四川省宜宾市长宁县发生的6.0级地震余震活动总体呈NW向分布, 其南东段的余震呈相对单一的NW向条带状, 而北西段的余震活动呈现丛集的特征。 两段的地震序列类型也表现出明显的差异性, 南东段地震序列为主—余型, 序列衰减速度较快; 北西段地震序列为震群型, 序列初期衰减非常缓慢, 余震丰富。 此次6.0级地震序列发生在长宁—双河大背斜上, 该复式背斜主要由多个次级褶皱构造和不同走向的伴生断层组成, 结构复杂。 长宁6.0级地震序列的分段性特征表明, 该地震序列不是发生在单一的断裂构造上, 为多个构造级联破裂所导致的复合型地震序列。 此外, 序列北西段余震的深度逐渐变深, 可能预示着该区域受华蓥山断裂带活动的影响, 地震序列对华蓥山断裂带未来地震活动的影响应引起关注。     

郯庐断裂带江苏新沂——安徽宿松段地震危险性分析

通过对郯庐断裂带江苏新沂—安徽宿松段历史及现代地震活动性分析、地震地质调查结果及沿线跨断层水准测量结果的综合分析,认为郯庐断裂带新沂—宿松段近期地震危险性主要位于新沂—泗县一带和明光一带,其中新沂—泗县一带近期有发生MS5.0～6.0级地震的活动背景;明光一带近期有发生MS5.0级地震的活动背景。     

甘肃省肃南县祁青乡5.3级地震的震害与发震构造

根据震区地质构造特征及现场考察结果，2001年7月11日甘肃省肃南县祁青乡5.3级地震属中等强度一般破坏性地震，是托勒山北缘断裂最新活动的结果。     

A STUDY REVIEW ON CHARACTERISTICS OF SEISMIC ACTIVITY OF ACTIVE-TECTONIC BLOCK BOUNDARIES IN MAINLAND CHINA

More than 80 percent of strong earthquakes(M≥7.0)occur in active-tectonic block boundaries in mainland China, and 95 percent of strong earthquake disasters also occur in these boundaries. In recent years, all strong earthquakes(M≥7.0)happened in active-tectonic block boundaries. For instance, 8 strong earthquakes(M≥7.0)occurred on the eastern, western, southern and northern boundaries of the Bayan Har block since 1997. In order to carry out the earthquake prediction research better, especially for the long-term earthquake prediction, the active-tectonic block boundaries have gradually become the key research objects of seismo-geology, geophysics, geodesy and other disciplines. This paper reviews the research results related to seismic activities in mainland China, as well as the main existing recognitions and problems as follows: 1)Most studies on seismic activities in active-tectonic block boundaries still remain at the statistical analysis level at present. However, the analysis of their working foundations or actual working conditions can help investigate deeply the seismic activities in the active-tectonic block boundaries; 2)Seismic strain release rates are determined by tectonic movement rates in active-tectonic block boundaries. Analysis of relations between seismic strain release rates and tectonic movement rates in mainland China shows that the tectonic movement rates in active-tectonic block boundaries of the eastern region are relatively slow, and the seismic strain release rates are with the smaller values too; the tectonic movement rates in active-tectonic block boundaries of the western region reveal higher values, and their seismic strain rates are larger than that of the eastern region. Earthquake recurrence periods of all 26 active-tectonic block boundaries are presented, and the reciprocals of recurrence periods represent high and low frequency of seismic activities. The research results point out that the tectonic movement rates and the reciprocals of recurrence periods for most faults in active-tectonic block boundaries exhibit linear relations. But due to the complexities of fault systems in active tectonic block boundaries, several faults obviously deviate from the linear relationship, and the relations between average earthquake recurrence periods and tectonic movement rates show larger uncertainties. The major reason is attributed to the differences existing in the results of the current earthquake recurrence studies. Furthermore, faults in active-tectonic boundaries exhibit complexities in many aspects, including different movement rates among various segments of the same fault and a certain active-tectonic block boundary contains some parallel faults with the same earthquake magnitude level. Consequently, complexities of these fault systems need to be further explored; 3)seismic activity processes in active-tectonic block boundaries present obvious regional characteristics. Active-tectonic block boundaries of the eastern mainland China except the western edge of Ordos block possess clustering features which indicate that due to the relatively low rate of crustal deformation in these areas, a long-time span is needed for fault stress-strain accumulation to show earthquake cluster activities. In addition, active-tectonic block boundaries in specific areas with low fault stress-strain accumulation rates also show seismic clustering properties, such as the clustering characteristics of strong seismic activities in Longmenshan fault zone, where a series of strong earthquakes have occurred successively, including the 2008 M8.0 Wenchuan, the 2013 M7.0 Lushan and the 2017 M7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquakes. The north central regions of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, regarded as the second-grade active-tectonic block boundaries, are the concentration areas of large-scale strike-slip faults in mainland China, and most of seismicity sequences show quasi-period features. Besides, most regions around the first-grade active-tectonic block boundary of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau display Poisson seismic processes. On one hand, it is still necessary to investigate the physical mechanisms and dynamics of regional structures, on the other hand, most of the active-tectonic block boundaries can be considered as fault systems. However, seismic activities involved in fault systems have the characteristic of in situ recurrence of strong earthquakes in main fault segments, the possibilities of cascading rupturing for adjacent fault segments, and space-time evolution characteristics of strong earthquakes in fault systems. 4)The dynamic environment of strong earthquakes in mainland China is characterized by “layering vertically and blocking horizontally”. With the progresses in the studies of geophysics, geochemistry, geodesy, seismology and geology, the physical models of different time/space scales have guiding significance for the interpretations of preparation and occurrence of continental strong earthquakes under the active-tectonic block frame. However, since the movement and deformation of the active-tectonic blocks contain not only the rigid motion and the horizontal differences of physical properties of crust-mantle medium are universal, there is still need for improving the understanding of the dynamic processes of continental strong earthquakes. So it is necessary to conduct in-depth studies on the physical mechanism of strong earthquake preparation process under the framework of active-tectonic block theory and establish various foundation models which are similar to seismic source physical models in California of the United States, and then provide technological scientific support for earthquake prevention and disaster mitigation. Through all kinds of studies of the physical mechanisms for space-time evolution of continental strong earthquakes, it can not only promote the transition of the study of seismic activities from statistics to physics, but also persistently push the development of active-tectonic block theory.     

Seismotectonic Study on the West Part of the Interaction Zone Between Southern Tianshan and Northern Tarim

The interaction zone between southern Tianshan and northern Tarim is located at the northeast side of Pamir. It is a region with high seismicity. We constructed a seismotectonic model for the west part of this zone from geological profiles, deep crust seismic detection and earthquake focal mechanisms data. Based on the synthesized geological features, deep crust structure, and earthquake focal mechanisms, we think that the main regional tectonic feature is that the Tianshan tecto-lithostratigraphic unit overthrusts on the Tarim block. The Tianshan tectonic system includes the Maidan fault and thrust sheets in front of the fault; The Tarim tectonic system includes the underground northern Tarim margin fault, conjugate faults in basement and overthrust fault in shallow. The northern Tarim margin fault is a high angle fault deep in the Tarim crust, adjusting different trending deformation between Tianshan and Tarim. It is a major active fault that can generate large earthquakes. The other faults, such as the Tianshan overthrust system and the Tarim basement faults in this area may generate moderately strong earthquakes with different styles.