The relationships between earthquakes and positions of the sun and moon (II)

This paper deals with the distributive characteristics of the occurrence time of earthquakes with respect to the aftershock sequences of strong earthquakes. The distribution of lunar and solar local hour angles at the time of commencement of moderate and strong aftershocks indicates that the time of commencement of moderate and strong aftershocks is modulated by the positions of the sun and moon and then the earthquake-restrained time zones exists also. In this paper the differences of earthquake-restrained time zones between the preshock sequences and the aftershock sequences are compared, and the possible mechanism is analyzed preliminarily. And the possible maximum scope of accuracy in predicting the occurrence time of an earthquake is determined as well. This paper is supported by the Eight Five Year Target of the State Seismological Bureau, China.     

平谷台地磁加卸载响应比与地震

将磁暴过程作为地球磁场对太阳风的加卸载响应,分析了平谷台１９９５年１月至１９９８年４月期间磁暴场的暴时扰日变化Ｄｓ（Ｚ）的响应比值Ｐ（Ｚ）的变化。发现Ｐ（Ｚ）高值与平谷台５５０ｋｍ,左右范围内ＭＳ≥５０的中强主震有较好的对应。     

The relationship between the earthquakes of Ningbo area and the Neotectonic movement

ＴｈｅｒｅｌａｔｉｏｎｓｈｉｐｂｅｔｗｅｎｔｈｅｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓｏｆＮｉｎｇｂｏａｒｅａａｎｄｔｈｅＮｅｏｔｅｃｔｏｎｉｃｍｏｖｅｍｅｎｔＪＩＡＧＥＮＧＣＨＥＮ１）（陈家庚）ＣＵＮＧＵＯＣＨＥＮ２）（陈存国）ＬＩＷＡＮＧ２）（王里）ＢＯ...     

马边地磁异常与地震相关性统计分析

地磁异常与地震相关性研究是一个较为活跃的领域.马边台地磁Z分量表现出较明显的映震现象.其表现为：（1）“低点位移”在时间领域分布异常;（2）瞬时差幅度异常;（3）日变形态畸变.本文以马边台23年的地磁资料，以成都地磁台为参照，从以上三方面进行了分析和总结，得到单台地磁预测地震的一些有益的启示。     

谢通门地震窗活动频次与强震对应关系

采用西藏测震台网记录的2008年1月—2018年12月谢通门区域定位地震,系统分析该区ML1.5以上地震频度变化及与附近强震的对应关系,发现地震台站建设密度对谢通门地震窗监控能力影响较大,故从2008—2011年和2012年7月—2018年12月2个时段予以分析。分析发现,2012年7月开始,谢通门地震窗小震活动水平在每月20次范围内随机波动,当超过20次以上(含20次)即异常高值出现或结束后1.5年内,在半径100 km以内具有发生MS 5.0以上地震的可能,在半径1 000 km以内具有发生MS 6.5以上强震的可能。     

山东地区地壳速度与中强地震的关系

利用山东区域地震数字台网提供的数据,通过三维层析成像方法结合山东地质构造实际情况,对山东区域进行联合走时反演地壳速度结构,获得该区分辨率较高的三维速度结构图像。结果表明：不同深度上的速度分布反映出山东地区深部构造的某些重要信息,为进一步研究该区的活动构造及地震参数计算提供科学依据。在地壳速度结构与中强地震活动的关系上,再次显示出中强震多发生在速度结构高速单元与低速单元的过渡带附近,说明中强震的孕育与震源区周围介质的不均匀性有关。     

北京地区小震活跃与首都圈地区中等地震活动关系研究

通过研究北京地区的小震活跃与首都圈地区中等地震活动的关系，发现1999年到2003年间频度异常与首都圈地区Ms4．0以上地震具有一定对应关系，但频度异常对未来地震地点判定的意义不大，需要将北京地区小震频度异常和首都圈及附近地区小震活动的有序性特征有机结合起来，才能更好地把握中等地震发生的时间和地点，最后指出，频度异常指标具有一定的时间性特征。     

A study of the relationship between volcanic activity and great earthquakes: The Kuril-Kamchatka region

We used the data on the activity of volcanoes in Kamchatka and the North Kuril Islands for the period from 1840 to early 2013 to identify the most significant cyclic components. The resulting periodicities were compared with the recurrence spectrum for great (M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes in the Kuril-Kamchatka region for 1841–2012. We detected 52.8–54.0, 8.58, and 5.72-year cycles, which are common both to seismicity and to volcanic activity. The first interval is close to the three times the value of the 18.613-year lunar rhythm (55.84 years). The 8.58 and 5.72-year periodicities seem to be controlled by solar activity variations and are the second and third harmonics in the 17.15-year cycle. This cycle and its harmonics are used for long-term prediction of great (M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes in the Kuril-Kamchatka region as a whole. It was concluded that the existing increased hazard of great earthquake occurrence in the Kuril-Kamchatka region will last until February 2016 (a 40% probability of a great earthquake during that period). In addition, the long-period phase of increased seismic hazard will last until 2027 with the probability of great earthquakes being 1.6 times the long-term average value.     

上海地区地磁转换函数变化及其与近震的关系

计算分析了上海地区佘山台１９７７年１月－１９８６年１２月和崇明台１９８３年１月－１９８９年９月的地磁周期Ｔ＝９－２００ｍｉｎ的复转换函数Ａ的模│Ａ│，总方差σｚ和帕金森林矢量或韦氏矢量，并将其在上海地区９０－３００ＫＭ范围内４次５－６级近震发生时的烨变化进行了研究。结果表明周期为１５、２０和３５ｍｉｎ的│Ａ│和σｚ值在震前明显异常，帕金森矢量或韦氏矢量在震前指向震中，震后回到正常位置，在此基础上，     

地球自转对强震震中附近中小地震的影响

论述2008年5月12日四川汶川Ms8.0地震和2010年4月14日青海玉树Ms7.1地震前震中附近中小地震和地球自转季节性变化的关系,介绍1970年以来中国大陆其他14例M≥7.0地震震例.研究发现,在强震前几年时间内,震中附近地区的中小地震有偏向发生于地球自转速率季节性变化加速或者减速某一阶段的现象.该结果对深入认识地震与地球自转之间的关系具有一定启示意义,对地震预测具有一定指导意义.     

The relationship between the deep-level structure in crust and brewing of strong earthquakes in Xingtai area

IntroductionWiththefurtherstudyonthefinestructureofcrustandapplicationoftheCTtechnologytotheresearchonthecontinentaldeepstructureinNorthChina,thenon-heterogeneityofcrustanduppermantleintheseareashasbeenclearlyacknowledged.Zeng,etal(1991)gavethefocalmodeloflargeearthquakeinNorthChina,inwhichthemostimportanttraitisthetransversenonuniformoftemperaturedistributiononthetopofthemantle.Liu,etal(1986)studiedtheseismictomographyofNorthChinaregion,andindicatedthattherearemanydifferentlowervelocityare…     

震源机制与应力体系关系模拟研究

为理解震源机制和所作用的应力张量之间的关系,模拟了东西向挤压、垂直向拉张的挤压应力体系,南北向挤压、东西向拉张的走滑应力体系和垂直向挤压、东西向拉张的拉张应力体系所产生震源机制及其剪应力和正应力的表现.结果表明：挤压应力体系可以产生逆断型、走滑型和逆走滑型的震源机制,并随着应力形因子R的增大,逆断型震源机制数目逐渐减小,而走滑型和逆走滑型震源机制数目逐渐增加;走滑应力体系兼有各种类型的震源机制,随着R值的增大,正断型和正走滑型震源机制数目逐渐减小,而逆断型和逆走滑型震源机制数目逐渐增加;拉张应力体系兼有正断型、走滑型和正走滑型震源机制,随着R值的增加,正断型震源机制数目逐渐增加,而走滑型和正走滑型震源机制数目逐渐减小.挤压应力体系在震源机制节面上的最大剪应力分布在R=0时沿倾角45°分布,随着R值增大至1,逐渐演变为沿着以（0°,90°）和（180°,90°）为中心的圆弧分布;拉张应力体系的最大剪应力分布则随着R值自0增大至1,最大剪应力自以（0°,90°）和（180°,90°）为中心的圆弧分布逐渐演变为沿倾角45°分布;走滑应力体系则随着R值自0增大至1,最大剪应力自以（0°,90°）和（180°,90°）为中心的圆弧分布逐渐演变为以（90°,90°）为中心的圆弧分布.三种应力体系所表现的震源机制P,T轴分布呈现复杂多样性：R越小,震源机制的T轴分布在拉张主应力周围的区域范围越小,而P轴分布在挤压轴周围的区域范围越大,R=0.5时两者分布区域范围均衡,R超过0.5时越接近1,震源机制的P轴分布在挤压主应力周围的区域范围越小,而T轴分布在拉张轴附近的区域范围越大.

     

观测井中氦含量异常与地震关系的研究

阐述了黑龙江省林甸观测井、山东省聊城聊古一井和云南省开远观测井观测到的氦含量变化与周围发生的中强地震的关系.由于氦的物理化学的特性,它在地震前能灵敏地反映出地震的前兆变化,氦的异常幅度与震级成正相关,与震中距成负相关,异常一般都是在地震前15～30 d左右.根据观测井所处的构造条件和氦来源深度的不同,观测到氦含量的异常变化不一致性,有正异常,也有负异常变化,这与孕震应力场作用导致气体来源途径的不同有关.地热异常区的高温井逸出气和逸出气中以天然气为主的观测井氦气测值高,低温井逸出气的氦气测值低.人可明显感觉到有气体流出的观测井,其交换速度快,氦气异常呈现出突变型特征;而低温静水位观测井,其气体流量小的观测井,交换速度慢,其氦气异常呈现出缓变型的特征.     

强震地壳逸出氡和电离层异常耦合关系的讨论

空间对地观测研究是近年来国内外地震科学研究发展的重要方向。由于新的观测技术和理论的快速发展,地壳逸出氡和电离层异常耦合关系在地震前兆信息分析中有可能发挥重要作用。本文重点介绍了近年来国际上在强震地壳逸出氡和电离层异常耦合关系研究方面的主要进展,包括氡和电离层异常耦合关系的基本理论、观测依据和物理解释等,同时也介绍了在地震前兆研究中氡和电离层异常耦合关系的基本特点。研究认为,由于地面氡观测和卫星电离层观测均存在各自的优势和不足,因此利用空间对地观测技术来研究地壳逸出氡和电离层异常的耦合关系,可以全面提高对强震前兆异常信息的空间分析和可靠性判定能力,对全面发展地震监测预报技术具有重要的意义。     

华北北部地区地震与太阳活动关系的统计研究

使用时间序列分析和相关分析方法,分析华北北部地区1970～2006年地震与太阳黑子、耀斑的相关性,得到的结论是,太阳活动与以中小地震为主的地震样本不存在统计关系。这个结论与以往的研究不同,本文对此做了初步分析。     

茂县地倾斜资料变化与地震的对应

利用断层展布把深大断裂体系分成相关的子地块,探讨了地块周边地震活动与地倾斜资料变化的关系。     

The 1997 Umbria-Marche earthquakes (Italy): relation between the surface tectonic breaks and the area of deformation

We classified the most outstanding rupturesof the 1997 Umbria-Marche seismic sequence assecondary tectonic effects that occur within the zoneof deformation induced by the deep displacement on theseismogenic structure. The trend of the surfacedeformation is homogeneous within the entire area ofinterest and consistent with NE-oriented extensionevidenced by CMT focal solutions of the three mainshocks. We extrapolate the discontinuous sites ofbreak measurements and suggest that the localdeformation concentrates along four narrow bands.Location and direction of these bands are locallycontrolled by pre-existing structures. The comparisonbetween our data with the seismological data – such asmain rupture planes and spatial aftershockdistribution – highlights that three bands mark partof the boundaries of the NW-SE elongated aftershocksarea and the fourth occurs where this area is widest.Moreover, the analysis of the structural setting ofthe area suggests that N-S shear zones have stronglycontrolled the extension of the main rupture segmentsand the aftershock distribution. The surface rupturesare located within the area of coseismic deformationresulting from DInSAR data; we propose that theyrepresent the localized response to the verticalground deformation of the area. Finally, we discussthe contribution of the pattern of the 1997 surfacebreaks to the characterization of the seismogenicsource.     

The crustal fluid evolution and the causes of earthquakes (III)

This paper is the third one of a series of three papers on the fluid evolution of the crust-upper mantle and the causes of earthquakes. Based on the last two papers, a model of the crustal resistivity structure and the deep-seated fluid evolution is presented, and also a seismogeny theory is set up, which is called the potential-kinetic energy transformation model. In this model, the crustal deep-seated fluid evolution is considered to take the most important effect on the seismogenic process. Taking the Tangshan M7.8 earthquake of 1976 as an example, the earthquakes occurred in a pull-apart rifting basin are analyzed, and finally the crust outgassing in the seismogenic processes is discussed, referring to the here-presented theory of seismogeny. This paper is supported by the Eight Five-Year Target of the State Seismological Bureau, China.     

抚顺老虎台煤矿矿震震源机制的研究

利用１９８８－１９９５年６月间抚顺考虑台煤矿１００个矿震记录的５３４个Ｐ波初动方向数据和抚顺及周围地区１２０个天然地震记录的５２６个Ｐ波初动方向数据,用格点深度法分别计算出它们的综合断层面解的Ｐ、Ｂ、Ｔ轴并对其进行了对比分析。