On hurricane energy

Warm seawater is the energy source for hurricanes. Interfacial sea-to-air heat transfer without spray ranges from 100?W?m^?2 in light wind to 1,000?W?m^?2 in hurricane force wind. Spray can increase sea-to-air heat transfer by two orders of magnitude and result in heat transfers of up to 100,000?W?m^?2. Drops of spray falling back in the sea can be 2–4?°C colder than the drops leaving the sea, thus transferring a large quantity of heat from sea to air. The heat of evaporation is taken from the sensible heat of the remainder of the drop; evaporating approximately 0.3?% of a drop is sufficient to reduce its temperature to the wet bulb temperature of the air. The heat required to evaporate hurricane precipitation is roughly equal to the heat removed from the sea indicating that sea cooling is due to heat removal from above and not to the mixing of cold water from below. The paper shows how case studies of ideal thermodynamic processes can help explain hurricane intensity.     

Risk assessment of hurricane winds for Eglin air force base in northwestern Florida, USA

Hurricane winds present a significant hazard for coastal infrastructure. An estimate of the local risk of extreme wind speeds is made using a new method that combines historical hurricane records with a deterministic wind field model. The method is applied to Santa Rosa Island located in the northwestern panhandle region of Florida, USA. Firstly, a hurricane track is created for a landfall location on the island that represents the worst-case scenario for Eglin Air Force Base (EAFB). The track is based on averaging the paths of historical hurricanes in the vicinity of the landfall location. Secondly, an extreme-value statistical model is used to estimate 100-year wind speeds at locations along the average track based again on historical hurricanes in the vicinity of the track locations. Thirdly, the 100-year wind speeds together with information about hurricane size and forward speed are used as input to the HAZUS hurricane wind field model to produce a wind swath across EAFB. Results show a 100-year hurricane wind gust on Santa Rosa Island of 58 (±5) m?s^?1 (90% CI). A 100-year wind gust at the same location based on a 105-year simulation of hurricanes is lower at 55?m?s^?1, but within the 90% confidence limits. Based on structural damage functions and building stock data for the region, the 100-year hurricane wind swath results in $574 million total loss to residential and commercial buildings, not including military infrastructure, with 25% of all buildings receiving at least some damage. This methodology may be applied to other coastal areas and adapted to predict extreme winds and their impacts under climate variability and change.     

Observations and operational model simulations reveal the impact of Hurricane Matthew (2016) on the Gulf Stream and coastal sea level

In October 7–9, 2016, Hurricane Matthew moved along the southeastern coast of the U.S., causing major flooding and significant damage, even to locations farther north well away from the storm’s winds. Various observations, such as tide gauge data, cable measurements of the Florida Current (FC) transport, satellite altimeter data and high-frequency radar data, were analyzed to evaluate the impact of the storm. The data show a dramatic decline in the FC flow and increased coastal sea level along the U.S. coast. Weakening of the Gulf Stream (GS) downstream from the storm’s area contributed to high coastal sea levels farther north. Analyses of simulations of an operational hurricane-ocean coupled model reveal the disruption that the hurricane caused to the GS flow, including a decline in transport of ∼20 Sv (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³ s⁻¹). In comparison, the observed FC reached a maximum transport of ∼40 Sv before the storm on September 10 and a minimum of ∼20 Sv after the storm on October 12. The hurricane impacts both the geostrophic part of the GS and the wind-driven currents, generating inertial oscillations with velocities of up to ±1 m s⁻¹. Analysis of the observed FC transport since 1982 indicated that the magnitude of the current weakening in October 2016 was quite rare (outside 3 standard deviations from the mean). Such a large FC weakening in the past occurred more often in October and November, but is extremely rare in June-August. Similar impacts on the FC from past tropical storms and hurricanes suggest that storms may contribute to seasonal and interannual variations in the FC. The results also demonstrated the extended range of coastal impacts that remote storms can cause through their influence on ocean currents.     

Using Large-Eddy Simulations to Define Spectral and Coherence Characteristics of the Hurricane Boundary Layer for Wind-Energy Applications

Offshore wind-energy development is planned for regions where hurricanes commonly occur, such as the USA Atlantic Coast. Even the most robust wind-turbine design (IEC Class I) may be unable to withstand a Category-2 hurricane (hub-height wind speeds >50 m s\(^{-1}\)). Characteristics of the hurricane boundary layer that affect the structural integrity of turbines, especially in major hurricanes, are poorly understood, primarily due to a lack of adequate observations that span typical turbine heights (<200 m above sea level). To provide these data, we use large-eddy simulations to produce wind profiles of an idealized Category-5 hurricane at high spatial (10 m) and temporal (0.1 s) resolution. By comparison with unique flight-level observations from a field project, we find that a relatively simple configuration of the Cloud Model I model accurately represents the properties of Hurricane Isabel (2003) in terms of mean wind speeds, wind-speed variances, and power spectra. Comparisons of power spectra and coherence curves derived from our hurricane simulations to those used in current turbine design standards suggest that adjustments to these standards may be needed to capture characteristics of turbulence seen within the simulated hurricane boundary layer. To enable improved design standards for wind turbines to withstand hurricanes, we suggest modifications to account for shifts in peak power to higher frequencies and greater spectral coherence at large separations.     

An investigation into the contraction of the hurricane radius of maximum wind

The radius of the maximum tangential wind (RMW) associated with the hurricane primary circulation has been long known to undergo continuous contraction during the hurricane development. In this study, we document some characteristic behaviors of the RMW contraction in a series of ensemble real-time simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005) and in idealized experiments using the Rotunno and Emanuel (Mon Weather Rev 137:1770–1789, 1987) axisymmetric hurricane model. Of specific interest is that the contraction appears to slow down abruptly at the middle of the hurricane intensification, and the RMW becomes nearly stationary subsequently, despite the rapidly strengthening rotational flows. A kinematic model is then presented to examine such behaviors of the RMW in which necessary conditions for the RMW to stop contracting are examined. Further use of the Emanuel’s (J Atmos Sci 43:585–605, 1986) analytical hurricane theory reveals a connection between the hurricane maximum potential intensity and the hurricane eye size, an issue that has not been considered adequately in previous studies.     

Global warming and hurricanes: the potential impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise on coastal flooding

Tens of millions of people around the world are already exposed to coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Global warming has the potential to increase hurricane flooding, both by hurricane intensification and by sea level rise. In this paper, the impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise are evaluated using hydrodynamic surge models and by considering the future climate projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For the Corpus Christi, Texas, United States study region, mean projections indicate hurricane flood elevation (meteorologically generated storm surge plus sea level rise) will, on average, rise by 0.3 m by the 2030s and by 0.8 m by the 2080s. For catastrophic-type hurricane surge events, flood elevations are projected to rise by as much as 0.5 m and 1.8 m by the 2030s and 2080s, respectively.     

The impact of tropical sea surface temperatures on various measures of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity

Summary Since 1995 there has been a resurgence of Atlantic hurricane activity, with 2005 being the most active and destructive hurricane season on record. The influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) upon trends in Atlantic hurricane activity is investigated by considering SSTs in the southern tropical North Atlantic, an area known as the main development region (MDR). Significant differences in hurricane activity are observed when comparing the ten coolest and ten warmest years of SSTs in the MDR for the period spanning from 1941 to 2006, with increasing MDR SSTs linked to the increased duration and frequency of tropical cyclones. It is concluded that future increases in SSTs, as climate models project, could result in increased Atlantic basin hurricane activity. Understanding how oceanic processes affecting the MDR may change with climate change could therefore help increase the predictive capability for hurricane activity. Authors’ addresses: Paul A. Steenhof, 50 Hendrick, Chelsea, Quebec, J9B 1M1 Canada; William A. Gough, Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto at Scarborough, Scarborough, Ontario, Canada     

Impact of CAMEX-3 data on the analysis and forecasts of Atlantic hurricanes

Summary In the past, various field experiments were conducted using special aircrafts to enhance the observational database of hurricanes. Dropwindsondes (or “dropsondes”) are generally deployed to collect additional observations in the vicinity of the hurricane center. In addition to dropsondes, during the Third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3), which was conducted over the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico during August–September 1998, LASE was also used to measure vertical moisture profiles. Four hurricanes: Bonnie, Danielle, Earl and Georges were targeted during this campaign. This paper describes the resulting impact of CAMEX-3 data, especially the LASE moisture profile data, on the hurricane analysis and forecast. The data were analyzed using a spectral statistical interpolation technique and the forecasts were made using the FSUGCM at T126 resolution with 14 σ-vertical levels. Results indicate that the LASE data had a significant impact on the moisture analysis. The reanalysis was slightly drier away from the hurricane center and wetter close to the center. Spiraling bands, both dry and wet, of moisture were clearly seen for hurricane Danielle. The LASE data did not affect the wind analysis significantly, however when it was used along with dropsonde observations the hurricane intensity and its structure were well represented and the forecast track produced from the reanalyzed initial condition had less forecast errors. The LASE and dropsonde observations were in good agreement. Received February 27, 2001 Revised July 31, 2001     

Hurricane winds on the territory of Georgia

The statistical structure of hurricane winds is studied using the data of observation at 50 meteorological stations in Georgia for the period of 1961–2008. Determined are the number of days and the duration of hurricane winds in different regions of the country. Studied are the empirical functions of their distribution and the areal limits.     

Large-sample estimates of wind fluctuations over the ocean

The best quality wind data from the Norwegian sector of the North Sea, consisting of 3662 20-min time series measured at the top of the Statfjord A drilling derrick, are analyzed. Identification of Autoregressive wind models with Akaike's AIC and Achwarz's BIC measures appears to give rather arbitrary results. Spectral estimation with FFT- and AIC-identified AR-methods give almost identical results in the mean. At the higher frequencies (% MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamOzaaaa!36D7!\[f\] > 10^–2 s^–1) the spectrum is estimated to follow the usual inertial subrange law with little variability. The small-scale turbulent intensity is estimated to be very low, even in hurricane conditions. Comparatively, the low-frequency (% MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamOzaaaa!36D7!\[f\] ~ 10^–3 s^–1) fluctuations are more energetic than expected. None of the chosen low-frequency characteristica appear to be significantly linearly correlated to the available mean weather variables. However, some nonlinear relations appear to exist.     

Multi-year prediction model of North Atlantic hurricane activity

Summary An empirical prediction algorithm is developed to assess the potential of useful multi-season forecasts of North Atlantic hurricane activity. The algorithm is based on combining separate univariate autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models for each of three dominant components of hurricane activity. A Bayesian criterion is used to select the order of each model. In a single retroactive hindcast experiment, the algorithm is found to make better hindcasts than an ARMA model of the detrended series. A real-time forecast of hurricane activity for the 1997 North Atlantic hurricane season proves to be more accurate than two competitive single-season forecast models. It is expected that the routine use of the forecast algorithm in an operational setting will result in only marginal skill against climatology; it could however offer considerable forecast value as realized by benefits to decision makers in the reinsurance industry.With 4 Figures     

The Conservation of Helicity in Hurricane Andrew （1992） and the Formation of the Spiral Rainband

The characteristics of helicity in a hurricane are presented by calculating the MM5 model output in addition to theoretical analysis. It is found that helicity in a hurricane mainly depends on its horizontal component, whose magnitude is about 100 to 1000 times larger than its vertical component. It is also found that helicity is approximately conserved in the hurricane. Since the fluid has the intention to adjust the wind shear to satisfy the conservation of helicity, the horizontal vorticity is even larger than the vertical vorticity, and the three-dimensional vortices slant to the horizontal plane except in the inner eye. There are significant horizontal vortices and inhomogeneous helical flows in the hurricane. The formation of the spiral rainband is discussed by using the law of horizontal helical flows. It is closely related to the horizontal strong vortices and inhomogeneous helical flows.     

Comparison of observed gale radius statistics

Summary Forecasts of tropical cyclone track and intensity have long been used to characterize the evolution and expected threat from a tropical storm. However, in recent years, recognition of the contributions of subtropical cyclogenesis to tropical storm formation and the process of extratropical transition to latter stages of the once-tropical storm’s lifecycle have raised awareness about the importance of storm structure. Indeed, the structure of a cyclone determines the distribution and intensity of the significant weather associated with that storm. In this study, storm structure is characterized in terms of significant wind radii. The radii of tropical storm, damaging, and hurricane-force winds, as well as the radius of maximum winds are all analyzed. These wind radii are objectively derived from the H^*Wind surface wind analysis system. Initially, six years of these data are examined for consistency with previous studies. Having ascertained that the H^*Wind radii are realistic, detailed comparisons are performed between the H^*Wind and NHC Best Track wind radii for two years (2004 and 2005) of North Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane cases. This intercomparison reveals an unexpected bias: the H^*Wind radii are consistently larger than the NHC Best Track for all but the smallest and least intense storms. Further examination of the objectively-determined H^*Wind tropical storm force wind radius data compared to subjectively-determined radii for the same storm times demonstrates that the objective wind radii are underestimating the extent of the tropical storm force wind area. Since the objective H^*Wind radii are large compared to the NHC Best Track – and yet underestimate the area of tropical storm force winds – this argues for further examination of the methods used to ascertain these significant wind radii.     

Impact of cloud microphysical processes on hurricane intensity, part 1: Control run

Summary The first part of the paper comprises of a control experiment and its forecasts validations with the observed. The PSU-NCAR mesoscale model MM5 was utilized at a horizontal resolution of 4 km using the data sets for hurricane Charley of 2004. The model configures some of the best available versions for physics and microphysical parameterizations schemes to produce forecasts which are close to the observed trend of hurricane Charley. The basic validations of the control run were carried out in terms of track, intensity (sea-level pressure and surface wind speed), storm propagation speed, precipitation and radar reflectivity with that of observed. The validations were necessary because this control experiment will be considered as a benchmark forecast for comparison with other microphysics sensitive experiments forecasts in the second part of this paper. In general, the control run forecasts closely comply with that of observed track and intensity of the hurricane Charley. We also note that control run manage to reproduce much of the important structural characteristics features of the hurricane as observed.     

The influence of hurricane risk on tourist destination choice in the Caribbean

Climate change could have major implications for the global tourism industry if changing environmental conditions alter the attractiveness of holiday destinations. Countries with economies dependent on tourism and with tourism industries reliant on vulnerable natural resources are likely to be particularly at risk. We investigate the implications that climate-induced variations in Atlantic hurricane activity may have for the tourism-dependent Caribbean island of Anguilla. Three hundred tourists completed standardised questionnaires and participated in a choice experiment to determine the influence hurricane risk has on their risk perceptions and decisions regarding holiday preferences. The hurricane season had been considered by 40?% of respondents when making their holiday choice, and the beaches, climate and tranquility of the island were more important than coral reef-based recreational activities in determining holiday destination choice. Choice models demonstrated that respondents were significantly less likely to choose holiday options where hurricane risk is perceived to increase, and significantly more likely to choose options that offered financial compensation for increased risk. However, these choices and decisions varied among demographic groups, with older visitors, Americans, and people who prioritize beach-based activities tending to be most concerned about hurricanes. These groups comprise a significant component of the island’s current clientele, suggesting that perceived increases in hurricane risk may have important implications for the tourism economy of Anguilla and similar destinations. Improved protection of key environmental features (e.g. beaches) may be necessary to enhance resilience to potential future climate impacts.     

Effects of Roll Vortices on Turbulent Fluxes in the Hurricane Boundary Layer

Boundary-layer secondary circulations or ‘roll vortices’ can have a significant influence on the turbulent exchange of momentum, sensible heat and moisture throughout the hurricane boundary layer. In this study, analyses of data from a WP-3D aircraft of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are presented. As part of the Coupled Boundary Layer Air-Sea Transfer (CBLAST)-hurricane experiment sponsored through the Office of Naval Research and NOAA’s annual hurricane research program, flights were conducted to investigate energy exchange across the air–sea interface. We present the first in-situ aircraft-based observations of rolls in the hurricane boundary layer and investigate their influence on energy and momentum exchange. The rolls detected in Hurricane Isidore (year 2002) have a characteristic wavelength of about 900 m, in good agreement with analyses of data from a synthetic aperture radar image captured by the Canadian Space Agency’s RADARSAT satellite in the same storm. Our analyses of the airborne data suggest that roll vortices may be a significant factor modulating the air–sea momentum exchange.     

The heating field in an asymmetric hurricane— Part II: Results of computations

This is the second part of a paper on the distribution of heating fields in a hurricane. The first part dealt with the mathematical framework. The second part, i. e. the present paper deals with numerical calculations for an actual hurricane.The following sequence of calculations has been performed after the analysis and tabulation of an initial field of the tangential velocity V (r, θ, p): (1) the radial equation of motion is used to determine the geopotential heights; (2) the hydrostatic equation is used to determine the temperature field; (3) the tangential equation and the mass continuity equation are combined to obtain an omega equation whose solution determines the vertical velocity; (4) the radial velocity is next determined from the mass continuity equation; and (5) the heating function is finally determined from the first law of thermodynamics.The results of this study show an asymmetric banded structure (eye wall and rainband) of the vertical motion field as well as the heating field; these show close resemblence to observations. An analysis of the non-linearities of the asymmetric momentum distribution is shown to be crucial in the analysis of the hurricane heat sources.     

Sensitivity of modeled tropical cyclone track and structure of hurricane Irene (1999) to the convective parameterization scheme

Summary The Betts-Miller and the Kain-Fritsch schemes are two of the many approaches to convective parameterization available to modelers. In the case of hurricane Irene (1999), the choice of parameterization markedly impacted the modeled track and structure of the hurricane and its subsequent extratropical transition. Specifically, in model runs using Betts-Miller, Irene recurved too early, causing the storm to weaken over the cool open ocean, delaying its transition, and changing the character of the storm. The Kain-Fritsch scheme more accurately reproduced the track of Irene and, hence, its interaction with upper-level features that caused extratropical transition and post-transition intensification. The two parameterizations produce different characteristic vertical warming profiles; the differences in warming are related to the structural differences in the simulated storm, affecting the hurricane response to its environment. Received October 13, 2001 Revised December 23, 2001     

The Impact of the Storm-Induced SST Cooling on Hurricane Intensity

The effects of storm-induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling on hurricane intensity are investigated using a 5-day cloud-resolving simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). Two sensitivity simulations are performed in which the storm-induced cooling is either ignored or shifted close to the modeled storm track. Results show marked sensitivity of the model-simulated storm intensity to the magnitude and relative position with respect to the hurricane track. It is shown that incorporation of the storm-induced cooling, with an average value of 1.3℃, causes a 25-hPa weakening of the hurricane, which is about 20 hPa per 1℃ change in SST. Shifting the SST cooling close to the storm track generates the weakest storm, accounting for about 47% reduction in the storm intensity. It is found that the storm intensity changes are well correlated with the air-sea temperature difference. The results have important implications for the use of coupled hurricane-ocean models for numerical prediction of tropical cyclones.     

Atlantic Basin Hurricanes: Indices of Climatic Changes

Accurate records of basinwide Atlantic and U.S. landfalling hurricanes extend back to the mid 1940s and the turn of the century, respectively, as a result of aircraft reconnaissance and instrumented weather stations along the U.S. coasts. Such long-term records are not exceeded elsewhere in the tropics. The Atlantic hurricanes, U.S. landfalling hurricanes and U.S. normalized damage time series are examined for interannual trends and multidecadal variability. It is found that only weak linear trends can be ascribed to the hurricane activity and that multidecadal variability is more characteristic of the region. Various environmental factors including Caribbean sea level pressures and 200mb zonal winds, the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, African West Sahel rainfall and Atlantic sea surface temperatures, are analyzed for interannual links to the Atlantic hurricane activity. All show significant, concurrent relationships to the frequency, intensity and duration of Atlantic hurricanes. Additionally, variations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation are significantly linked to changes in U.S. tropical cyclone-caused damages. Finally, much of the multidecadal hurricane activity can be linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Mode - an empirical orthogonal function pattern derived from a global sea surface temperature record. Such linkages may allow for prediction of Atlantic hurricane activity on a multidecadal basis. These results are placed into the context of climate change and natural hazards policy.