Astronomical frequencies for climate research at the decadal to century time scale

Short-term variations of the elements representing the Earth's motion around the Sun and its rotation have been analyzed over the last 6000 years using 1-year steps. Their low-frequency part is compared first to the values obtained from a secular theory of the planetary long-term motion showing that they can be considered reliable enough to represent adequately the motion of the Earth over the last 5000 years. Spectral analysis of these values shows that the main periodicities are 2.67, 3.98, 5.26, 5.93, 7.9, 9.8, 11.9, 14.7, 15.8, 29, 42, 61, 122, 165 and 250 years for the eccentricity as well as for the climatic precession, with an additional component at around 930 years for the eccentricity and around 840 years for the climatic precession. Periodicities at 2.67, 3.8, 5.9, 8.0, 9.3, 11.9, 14.7, 18.6, 29, 135, 250 and 840 yr are also shown for the obliquity. Spectral analyses of the daily July mid-month insolation at 65°N show essentially the same periodicities as the climatic precession and the obliquity, i.e. 2.67, 3.98, 5.92, 8.1, 11.9, 15.7, 18.6, 29, 40, 61 and around 900 years. Finally a wider analysis of the insolation pattern was performed related to the large periodicity band of the insolation time series for the solstices and the equinoxes for 7 different latitudes. In equatorial latitudes the insolation variance is largely explained by precession. But precession dominates everywhere with the obliquity signal being stronger at polar latitudes at the solstices. The amplitudes of the insolation change at these frequencies is of the order of 0.2 Wm^–2 at the maximum. Offprint requests to: A Berger     

Phase Modulation Effect of the Rubincam Insolation Variations on Climate Change

Summary For astronomical seasons, Rubincam insolation deviations at latitude 65° N varied from 218.50 Wm⁻² to 225.75 Wm⁻² (3%). The periodicity of the insolation cycles varied from 36.7 Kyr to 44.7 Kyr (20%) due to phase shift. Phase shift of insolation variations can induce asymmetry of the insolation cycles, permitting rapid melting and prolonged glaciation of ice sheets to occur. For instance, an abnormal decrease of the insolation frequency during the longer period of glacial interval would prolong glaciation into deep ice age. In this study, we apply Rubincam’s insolation equations to investigate the phase shift effect of insolation variations on climate change. Using complex transforms of the changing insolation, we have detected a phase modulation signal in the insolation variations. As a result, an especially new and interesting series of the phase-related insolation pulsation is established. The phase modulated insolation is then introduced as a forcing function into energy balance climate models. Results of model computations shed new insights into the spectrum of the paleoclimatic proxy-data. It is shown that phase modulation of the insolation may provide an appropriate and complete external forcing mechanism to which the climate system would respond. The 100 Kyr cycle of the frequency modulation of the Rubincam’s insolation variations does seem adequate to change the climate. Received July 16, 1997 Revised May 18, 1998     

A comparison of the Vostok ice deuterium record and series from Southern Ocean core MD 88-770 over the last two glacial-interglacial cycles

Taking advantage of the fact that the Vostok deuterium (δD) record now covers almost two entire climatic cycles, we have applied the orbital tuning approach to derive an age-depth relation for the Vostok ice core, which is consistent with the SPECMAP marine time scale. A second age-depth relation for Vostok was obtained by correlating the ice isotope content with estimates of sea surface temperature from Southern Ocean core MD 88-770. Both methods lead to a close correspondence between Vostok and MD 88-770 time series. However, the coherence between the correlated δD and insolation is much lower than between the orbitally tuned δD and insolation. This reflects the lower accuracy of the correlation method with respect to direct orbital tuning. We compared the ice and marine records, set in a common temporal framework, in the time and frequency domains. Our results indicate that changes in the Antarctic air temperature quite clearly lead variations in global ice volume in the obliquity and precession frequency bands. Moreover, the average phase we estimated between the filtered δD and insolation signals at precessional frequencies indicates that variations in the southern high latitude surface temperature could be induced by changes in insolation taking place during a large period of the summer in northern low latitudes or winter in southern low latitudes. The relatively large lag found between Vostok δD variations and obliquity-driven changes in insolation suggests that variations in the local radiative balance are not the only mechanism responsible for the variability in surface temperature at those frequencies. Finally, in contrast to the cross-spectral analysis method used in previous studies, the method we use here to estimate the phases can reveal errors in cross-correlations with orbitally tuned chronologies. Received: 11 April 1995 / Accepted: 19 July 1995     

Assessment of Air Temperature Trends in the Source Region of Yellow River and Its Sub-Basins,China

Changes in climatic variables at the sub-basins scale (having different features of land cover) are crucial for planning, development and designing of water resources infrastructure in the context of climate change. Accordingly, to explore the features of climate changes in sub-basins of the Source Region of Yellow River (SRYR), absolute changes and trends of temperature variables, maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), mean temperature (Tavg) and diurnal temperature range (DTR), were analyzed annually and seasonally by using daily observed air temperature dataset from 1965 to 2014. Results showed that annual Tmax, Tmin and Tavg for the SRYR were experiencing warming trends respectively at the rate of 0.28, 0.36 and 0.31°C (10 yr)^?1. In comparison with the 1st period (1965-1989), more absolute changes and trends towards increasing were observed during the 2nd period (1990-2014). Apart from Tangnaihai (a low altitude sub-basin), these increasing trends and changes seemed more significant in other basins with highest magnitude during winter. Among sub-basins the increasing trends were more dominant in Huangheyan compared to other sub-basins. The largest increase magnitude of Tmin, 1.24 and 1.18°C (10 yr)^?1, occurred in high altitude sub-basins Jimai and Huangheyan, respectively, while the smallest increase magnitude of 0.23°C (10 yr)^?1 occurred in a low altitude sub-basin Tangnaihai. The high elevation difference in Tangnaihai probably was the main reason for the less increase in the magnitude of Tmin. In the last decade, smaller magnitude of trend for all temperature variables signified the signal of cooling in the region. Overall, changes of temperature variables had significant spatial and seasonal variations. It implies that seasonal variations of runoff might be greater or different for each sub-basin.     

Considering the influence of sequestration duration and carbon saturation on estimates of soil carbon capacity

Rates of soil C sequestration have previously been estimated for a number of different land management activities, and these estimates continue to improve as more data become available. The time over which active sequestration occurs may be referred to as the sequestration duration. Integrating soil C sequestration rates with durations provides estimates of potential change in soil C capacity and more accurate estimates of the potential to sequester C. In agronomic systems, changing from conventional plow tillage to no-till can increase soil C by an estimated 16±3%, whereas increasing rotation intensity can increase soil C by an estimated 6±3%. The increase in soil C following a change in rotation intensity, however, may occur over a slightly longer period (26 yr) than that for tillage cessation (21 yr). Sequestration strategies for grasslands have, on average, longer sequestration durations (33 yr) than for croplands. Estimates for sequestration rates and durations are mean values and can differ greatly between individual sites and management practices. As the annual sequestration rate declines over the sequestration duration period, soil C approaches a new steady state. Sequestration duration is synonymous with the time to which soil C steady state is reached. However, soils could potentially sequester additional C following additional changes in management until the maximum soil C capacity, or soil C saturation, is achieved. Carbon saturation of the soil mineral fraction is not well understood, nor is it readily evident. We provide evidence of soil C saturation and we discuss how the steady state C level and the level of soil C saturation together influence the rate and duration of C sequestration associated with changes in land management.     

Trends and uncertainties in surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau, 1951–2013

Trends and uncertainties of surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are evaluated by using observations at 100 meteorological stations during the period 1951–2013. The sampling error variances of gridded monthly data are estimated for every month and every grid box of data. The gridded data and their sampling error variances are used to calculate TP averages, their trends, and associated uncertainties. It is shown that large sampling error variances dominate northern and western TP, while small variances appear over southern and eastern TP. Every month from January to December has a positive linear trend during the study period. February has the largest trend of 0.34 ± 0.18°C (10 yr)^–1, and April the smallest at 0.15 ± 0.11°C (10 yr)^–1. The uncertainties decrease steadily with time, implying that they are not large enough to alter the TP warming trend.     

Solar,volcanic, and CO2 forcing of recent climatic changes

The climate, as represented by the mean Northern Hemisphere temperature, has shown substantial changes within the past century. The temperature record is utilized as a means of elucidating the relative importance of anthropogenic CO₂ increase, volcanic aerosols, and possible solar insolation variations in externally forcing climate changes. Solar luminosity variations, suggested by observed solar radius variations on an ≈ 80 yr time scale, allow a self-consistent explanation of the hemispheric temperature trends. Evidence for solar influences on the climate is also found on the shorter 11 and 22 yr time scales present in solar activity cycles. The author is a staff scientist at the High Altitude Observatory, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. This work was completed while the author was a postdoctoral fellow in the Advanced Study Program of NCAR. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Variations of atmospheric nitrous oxide concentration in the northern and western Pacific

Atmospheric N₂O concentration was observed in the Pacific for the period 1991–2006, using commercial container ships sailing between Japan and North America and between Japan and Australia or New Zealand. The N₂O concentration showed a secular increase and interannual variations at all sampling locations, but a seasonal cycle was detectable only at northern high latitudes. The annual mean N₂O concentration showed little longitudinal variations (within ± 0.3 ppb) in the northern Pacific, but showed a clear north-south gradient of about 0.8 ppb, with higher values in the Northern Hemisphere. The annual mean N₂O was also characterized by especially high values at 30°N due to strong local N₂O emissions and by a steep latitudinal decrease from the equator to 20°S due to the suppression of interhemispheric exchange of air by the South Pacific Convergence Zone. The N₂O growth rate showed an interannual variation with a period of about 3 yr (high-values in 1999 and 2000), with a delayed eastward and poleward phase propagation in the northern and western Pacific, respectively. The interannual variations of the N₂O growth rate and soil water showed a good correlation, suggesting that the N₂O emission from soils have an important causative role in the atmospheric N₂O variation.     

On the Spatio-Temporal Variations of the Tropopause Height over India and Indian Summer Monsoon Activity

The spatio-temporal variation of the tropopause height (TH) over the Indian region (5°N-35°N, 70°E-95°E) has been studied using monthly mean TH data, for 22-year period, 1965 to 1986. The study revealed that the stations south of 20° showed maximum TH in April / May and minimum in September. This variation in TH has been attributed to the corresponding variation of average sea surface temperature (SST) over ± 20° latitudinal belt over Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. Further the stations north of 20°N showed maximum in June and minimum in October/ November. This maximum in TH has primarily been attributed to the increased insolation and convection. Furthermore it is noticed that the anomaly of TH moved northwards during the period April to July.The interannual variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon Activity (ISMA) has been studied in relation to all India mean TH (at 12 GMT) for six months April through September. The composites of mean TH for good and bad monsoon years showed that     

Calendar effect on phase study in paleoclimate transient simulation with orbital forcing

Several studies have shown that the use of different calendars in paleoclimate simulations can cause artificial phase shifts on insolation forcing and climatic responses. However, these important calendar corrections are still often neglected. In this paper, the phase shifts at the precession band is quantitatively assessed by converting the model data of the transient GCM climate simulation of Kutzbach et al. (Clim Dyn 30:567?C579, 2008) from the ??fixed-day?? calendar to the ??fixed-angular?? calendar with a new and efficient approach. We find that insolation has a big phase shift in September?COctober?CNovember (SON) when the vernal equinox (VE) is fixed to March 21. At high latitude, the phase bias is up to 60° (about 3650?years). The insolation phase bias in SON in Southern Hemisphere (SH) is especially important because it can influence the timing of the SH summer monsoon response due to the large heat capacity of ocean. The calendar correction has minor effect (±2°) on the phase relationships between forcing and precipitation responses of the six global summer monsoons studied in Kutzbach et al. (2008). After correcting the calendar effect, especial on SH ocean temperature, the new phase wheel results are more similar for both hemispheres. The results suggest that the calendar effect should be corrected before discussing the dynamics between orbital forcing and climatic responses in phase studies of transient simulations.     

Estimation of the influence of surface waves on the sea surface radiative balance

The sea roughness effect on insolation and sun rays reflection for different sun heights above the horizon and unclouded sky is considered. Numerical assessments for albedo, insolation, and absorbed radiation are received for Stokes waves. Normal ray falling at the wave crest is suggested. The ray trace approach is used that allowed to take into account such effects as the dependence of albedo on the wave tilt, double light reflection from neighboring wave crests and the trough shading by the crest. It is concluded that the main roughness effect on the radiative balance is the insolation increasing and albedo diminishing at large wave steepness when the sun height above the horizon is less than 40°.     

Local energy exchanges in a shallow,coastal lagoon: Summer conditions

Abstract

Meteorological and hydrographic data from the Indian River lagoon on the Atlantic coast of South Florida are used to describe the magnitude and relative importance of local heat flux processes in a bar‐built estuary for summer conditions. Over a 72‐day period in 1979, the energy gain by absorbed net insolation, averaging 316 W m^‐2 is very nearly balanced by the energy loss due to net long‐wave radiation (‐61 W m^‐2), sensible heat loss (‐54 W m^‐2) and evaporation (‐194 W m^‐2). Day‐to‐day imbalances, however, result in cycles of heating and cooling over time scales on the order of 4–6 days. Water temperatures fluctuate only ±0.5–1.0°C about the seasonal normal, reflecting relatively stable meteorological conditions. Heat energy stored in these estuarine waters in summer months is most highly correlated with the absorption of net insolation.     

Sensitivity of the LLN climate model to the astronomical and CO2 forcings over the last 200 ky

 The Louvain-la-Neuve climate model (here referred to as the LLN 2-D model has been used extensively to simulate the Northern Hemisphere ice volume under both the insolation and CO₂ forcings. The period analysed here covers the last 200 ky. First, sensitivity analyses to constant CO₂ concentration were performed. The model was accordingly forced by insolation changes only, the CO₂ concentration being kept constant to respectively 210, 250 and 290 ppmv. Results show that the simulated ice volume variations are comparable to the geological reconstructions only when the CO₂ concentration is low (210 ppmv) and that the sensitivity of the simulated Northern Hemisphere ice volume to CO₂ is not constant through time. Second, three CO₂ reconstructions were used to force the LLN 2-D model in addition to insolation. Results show (1) a better agreement with the SPECMAP oxygen isotope time series, in particular as far as the amplitude of the signal is concerned, and (2) that the simulated Northern Hemisphere ice volume is not very sensitive to the slight differences between these three reconstructions.     

On the time-varying trend in global-mean surface temperature

The Earth has warmed at an unprecedented pace in the decades of the 1980s and 1990s (IPCC in Climate change 2007: the scientific basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007). In Wu et al. (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104:14889–14894, 2007) we showed that the rapidity of the warming in the late twentieth century was a result of concurrence of a secular warming trend and the warming phase of a multidecadal (~65-year period) oscillatory variation and we estimated the contribution of the former to be about 0.08°C per decade since ~1980. Here we demonstrate the robustness of those results and discuss their physical links, considering in particular the shape of the secular trend and the spatial patterns associated with the secular trend and the multidecadal variability. The shape of the secular trend and rather globally-uniform spatial pattern associated with it are both suggestive of a response to the buildup of well-mixed greenhouse gases. In contrast, the multidecadal variability tends to be concentrated over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere and particularly over the North Atlantic, suggestive of a possible link to low frequency variations in the strength of the thermohaline circulation. Depending upon the assumed importance of the contributions of ocean dynamics and the time-varying aerosol emissions to the observed trends in global-mean surface temperature, we estimate that up to one third of the late twentieth century warming could have been a consequence of natural variability.     

Wavelet analysis of a centennial (1895–1994) southern Brazil rainfall series (Pelotas, 31°46′19″S 52°20′ 33″W)

In this work we apply the wavelet transform to the Pelotas (southern Brazil) total annual rainfall series (1894–1995). Classical, wavelet and cross-wavelet analyses were performed in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), sunspot number (Rz) and Pelotas rainfall time series. Classical spectral analysis for Pelotas has shown a large number of short periods – between 2.2–5.6 years (yr) and periods at 8.9, 11.7 and 24.9 yr. Further, we have found that the Pelotas rainfall wavelet spectrum shows the most significant periodicities around 2–8 yr, but they have an intermittent character. Cross-wavelet spectrum showed that: rainfall and QBO series are correlated at 2–3 yr (QBO) scales and this cross-power is continuous along the time series interval; rainfall and SOI have higher cross-power around 4–8 yr, but this signal is sporadic; rainfall and sunspot number (Rz) showed higher cross-power around the 11-yr solar cycle period, but this cross-power is sporadically high and low; finally, the rainfall cross-spectrum with the double sunspot number (Rz22) revealed a high cross-power around 20–22 yr which is more persistent in duration, compared to the 11-yr period. These wavelet results are compared with classical spectral analysis and with previous work results. We concluded that the phenomenon that influences most of Pelotas rainfall variability is ENSO, but only a minor part of the variance (～30%) can be described by a simple multi-linear dependence on solar/ENSO/QBO phenomena, this result could imply that non-linear coupling among sun and internal climatic variability (QBO, ENSO) has an important role in the local/regional climate variations.     

中国总辐射的年分布与季分布

本文根据1957年12月—1958年11月的全国二十六个台站的日射观测记录分析,绘出中国四季及全年的总辐射分布图,并与美洲及全球作比较.最后讨论了各种经验公式在不同气候条件下的精确度,指出应当按不同的气候区域应用不同的经验公式.     

Simulation of the evolutionary response of global summer monsoons to orbital forcing over the past 280,000 years

We describe the evolutionary response of northern and southern hemisphere summer monsoons to orbital forcing over the past 280,000 years using a fully coupled general circulation ocean-atmosphere model in which the orbital forcing is accelerated by a factor of 100. We find a strong and positive response of northern (southern) summer monsoon precipitation to northern (southern) summer insolation forcing. On average, July (January) precipitation maxima and JJA (DJF) precipitation maxima have high coherence and are approximately in phase with June (December) insolation maxima, implying an average lag between forcing and response of about 30° of phase at the precession period. The average lag increases to over 40° for 4-month precipitation averages, JJAS (DJFM). The phase varies from region to region. The average JJA (DJF) land temperature maxima also lag the June orbital forcing maxima by about 30° of phase, whereas ocean temperature maxima exhibit a lag of about 60° of phase at the precession period. Using generalized measures of the thermal and hydrologic processes that produce monsoons, we find that the summer monsoon precipitation indices for the six regions all fall within the phase limits of the process indices for the respective hemispheres. Selected observational studies from four of the six monsoon regions report approximate in-phase relations of summer monsoon proxies to summer insolation. However other observational studies report substantial phase lags of monsoon proxies and a strong component of forcing associated with glacial-age boundary conditions or other factors. An important next step will be to include glacial-age boundary condition forcing in long, transient paleoclimate simulations, along with orbital forcing.     

Observations of Aerosol Optical Properties in the Beijing Urban Area in Summer

To investigate aerosol optical properties in the Beijing metropolitan area,aerosol absorption coefficient(Ab) ,scattering coefficient(Sc) ,and fine particulate matter(PM2.5) were measured in the Beijing urban area from 20 May to 30 August 2009.The average Ab,Sc,single scattering albedo(SSA) ,and PM2.5 concentration were 58.0±39.5 M m-1,343.5±353.7 M m-1,0.80±0.10 and 63.6±50.0-g m-3,respectively,during the observation period.Ab,Sc,and SSA all showed single peak diurnal variations,with their maximum values being measured at 0500,1000,and 1300 local time,respectively.Ab and Sc had a strong positive correlation with PM2.5,and Ab,Sc,and PM2.5 all had positive correlations with relative humidity and negative correlations with wind speed.     

Insolation estimates for the LITFASS area derived from high resolution satellite data

Summary ?For the LITFASS-98 experiment, from June 1 until June 30, 1998, the spatially resolved insolation at surface could be computed from NOAA-14 AVHRR data applying the modular analysis scheme SESAT (Strahlungs- und Energiebilanzen aus Satellitendaten). The satellite inferred insolation for this period shows for clear-sky regions a good agreement with surface based observations with a rms error of 76 Wm⁻². For cloudy conditions the insolation is overestimated with respect to ground based observations, with a rms error between 83 and 118 Wm⁻², depending on the cloud optical thickness. This overestimation can be explained by the surface heterogeneity, leading to underestimated cloud optical thickness, and also by a fixed relative humidity below clouds (55%, dry atmosphere) and a fixed horizontal visibility (50 km, clear atmosphere). A detailed study of comparable scales in space and time, considering the different observation geometries and sampling intervals, shows that a 30 min ground based observation can be compared with a 8 × 8 km² mean by the satellite data. Received July 12, 2001; revised April 29, 2002; accepted June 7, 2002     

Emission estimates of methyl chloride from industrial sources in China based on high frequency atmospheric observations

Methyl Chloride (CH₃Cl) is a chlorine-containing trace gas in the atmosphere contributing significantly to stratospheric ozone depletion (Carpenter et al. 2014). In the global CH₃Cl budget, the atmospheric CH₃Cl emissions is predominantly maintained by natural sources, of which magnitudes have been relatively well-constrained. However, significant uncertainties still remain in the CH₃Cl emission strengths from anthropogenic sources. High-frequency and high-precision in situ measurements of atmospheric CH₃Cl concentrations obtained since 2008 at Gosan station (a remote background site in the East Asia) reveal significant pollution events superimposed on the seasonally varying regional background levels. Back trajectory statistics showed that air masses corresponding to the observed CH₃Cl enhancement largely originated from regions of intensive industrial activities in China. Based on an inter-species correlation method, estimates of CH₃Cl emissions from manufacturing industries including coal combustion, use of feedstocks, or process agents in chemical production for China (2008–2012) are 297 ± 71 Gg yr.^?1 in 2008 to 480 ± 99 Gg yr.^?1 in 2009, followed by a gradual decrease of about 25% between 2009 and 2012 (398 ± 92 Gg yr.^?1 for 2010; 286 ± 68 Gg yr.^?1 for 2011; 358 ± 92 Gg yr.^?1 for 2012). The annual average of industrial CH₃Cl emissions for 2008–2012 (363 ± 85 Gg yr.^?1) in China is comparable to the known total global anthropogenic CH₃Cl emissions accounting only for coal combustion and indoor biofuel use. This may suggest that unless emissions from the chemical industry are accounted for, global anthropogenic emissions of CH₃Cl have been substantially underestimated. In particular, since industrial production and use of CH₃Cl have not been regulated under the Montreal Protocol (MP) or its successor amendments, continuous monitoring of Chinese CH₃Cl outflow is important to properly evaluate its anthropogenic emissions.