Assessment of climate change adaptation costs for the U.S. road network

The U.S. road network is one of the nation's most important capital assets and is vital to the functioning of the U.S. economy. Maintaining this asset involves approximately $134 billion of government funds annually from Federal, State, and local agencies. Climate change may represent a risk or an opportunity to this network, as changes in climate stress will affect the resources necessary for both road maintenance and construction projects. This paper develops an approach for estimating climate-related changes in road maintenance and construction costs such that the current level of service provided by roads is maintained over time. We estimate these costs under a baseline scenario in which annual mean global temperature increases by 1.5 °C in 2050 relative to the historical average and a mitigation scenario under which this increase in mean temperature is limited to 1.0 °C. Depending on the nature of the changes in climate that occur in a given area, our analysis suggests that climate change may lead to a reduction in road maintenance and/or construction costs or an increase in costs. Overall, however, our analysis shows that climate change, if unchecked, will increase the annual costs of keeping paved and unpaved roads in service by $785 million in present value terms by 2050. When not discounted, this figure increases to $2.8 billion. Policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to reduce these costs by approximately $280 million in present value terms and by $885 million when not discounted. These costs vary substantially by region and time period, information that should be important for transportation planners at the national, state, and local levels.     

PROJECTIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE CZECH REPUBLIC

The paper deals with a selection of the climatological baseline, GCM validity and construction of the climate change scenarios for an impact assessment in the Czech territory. The period of 1961–1990 has been selected as the climatological baseline. The corresponding database includes more than 50 monthly mean temperature and precipitation series, and 16 time series of daily meteorological data that contain also the solar radiation data. The 1× CO₂ outputs produced by four GCMs, provided by the CSMT (GISS, GFD30, GFD01, and CCCM), were compared with observed temperature and precipitation conditions in western and central Europe with a particular attention devoted to the Czech territory. The GCM ability to simulate annual cycles of temperature, precipitation and radiation was thoroughly examined. The GISS and CCCM were selected as a basis for constructing climate change scenarios as they simulated reasonably the observed patterns. According to the GISS variant, 2× CO₂ climate assumes a higher winter and lower summer warming, and an increase in annual precipitation amounts. A dangerous combination of the summer temperature increase and declining precipitation amounts is a specific feature of the CCCM scenario. An incremental scenario for temperature and precipitation is based on the combination of prescribed changes in both annual means and annual courses.     

Climate change adaptation advantage for African road infrastructure

The African continent is facing the potential of a $183.6 billion USD liability to repair and maintain roads damaged from temperature and precipitation changes directly related to predicted climate change through 2100. This cost is strictly to retain the current road inventory. This cost does not include costs associated with impacts to critically needed new roads. In many African countries, limited or non-existent funds for adaptation and mitigation are challenging these countries to identify the threats that are posed by climate change, develop adaptation approaches to the predicted changes, incorporate changes into mid-range and long-term development plans, and secure funding for the proposed and necessary adaptations. Existing studies have attempted to quantify the impact of climate change on infrastructure assets that will be affected by climate change in the coming decades. The current study extends these efforts by specifically addressing the effect of climate change on the African road infrastructure. The study identifies both total costs and opportunity costs of repairing and maintaining infrastructure due to increased stressors from climate change. Proactive and reactive costs are examined for six climate scenarios, with costs ranging, respectively, from an average of $22 million USD to $54 million USD annually per country. A regional analysis shows contrast between impacts in five areas of the continent, with impacts ranging from 22 % opportunity cost to 168 %. These costs have the potential to delay critical infrastructure development on the continent and present a challenge to policy makers balancing short-term needs with long-term planning.     

Costs and benefits of tropical cyclones,severe thunderstorms and bushfires in Australia

The historical frequency, distribution and impact of tropical cyclones, severe thunderstorms and bushfires in Australia are discussed. Although the climatological record of frequency and distribution is incomplete for some hazards, this information is more reliable than that available on the impacts of the hazards. Insurance payout costs form the best quantitative measure of negative impacts, but such figures represent only a fraction of the true costs of damage from severe weather. For tropical cyclones the insurance payout since 1967 has been $1715 million, for severe thunderstorms $1808 million and for bushfires $488 million. Tropical cyclones and storms each result in the loss of 4 to 6 lives each year, while bushfires have an average annual death toll of about 10. Although significant benefits arising from severe weather events can also be identified, quantitative estimates of their alue are not available.     

Water Quality Co-Effects of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in U.S. Agriculture

This study develops first-order estimates of water quality co-effects of terrestrial greenhouse gas (GHG) emission offset strategies in U.S. agriculture by linking a national level agricultural sector model (ASMGHG) to a national level water quality model (NWPCAM). The simulated policy scenario considers GHG mitigation incentive payments of $25 and $50 per tonne, carbon equivalent to landowners for reducing emissions or enhancing the sequestration of GHG through agricultural and land-use practices. ASMGHG projects that these GHG price incentives could induce widespread conversion of agricultural to forested lands, along with alteration of tillage practices, crop mix on land remaining in agriculture, and livestock management. This study focuses on changes in cropland use and management. The results indicate that through agricultural cropland about 60 to 70 million tonnes of carbon equivalent (MMTCE) emissions can be mitigated annually in the U.S. These responses also lead to a 2% increase in aggregate national water quality, with substantial variation across regions. Such GHG mitigation activities are found to reduce annual nitrogen loadings into the Gulf of Mexico by up to one half of the reduction goals established by the national Watershed Nutrient Task Force for addressing the hypoxia problem.     

Temporal and spatial distributions of wind storm damages in the United States

High wind caused catastrophes, storms causing property losses >$1 million, during 1952–2006 averaged 3.1 events per year in the U.S. The average loss per event was $90 million, and the annual average loss was $354 million. High wind catastrophes were most frequent in the Northeast, Central, and West Coast areas. Storm losses on the West Coast were the nation’s highest, averaging $115 million per event. High wind losses are the nation’s only form of severe weather that maximizes on the West Coast. High wind catastrophes were most frequent in winter, and were infrequent in the late spring and early fall seasons. Loss areas were frequently confined to one state. Losses in the western U.S. and nationally have increased during the 1952–2006 period, both with statistically significant upward trends.     

Assessing the institutional capacity to adapt to climate change: a case study in the Cambodian health and water sectors

Institutional capacity is an important element for climate change adaptation (CCA) and the development of such capacity is a great challenge in a Least Developed Country like Cambodia where resources are limited. An important first step to increasing capacity is via an understanding of the level of existing capacity; future priorities can then be subsequently identified. This study aimed to assess the capacity of organizations to implement climate change activities in Cambodia in order to provide such a basis for building capacity. Four elements of capacity were investigated in this research: (1) financial resources, (2) cooperation and coordination of stakeholders, (3) availability and quality of information on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, and (4) the level of understanding of climate change vulnerability and adaptation. The data were collected through semistructured interviews with a wide range of government and non-government informants across a number of sectors. Results of the study showed that informants perceived capacity for CCA to be very constrained, especially in terms of financial resources and cooperation, and addressing these factors was ranked as the highest climate change capacity priority. Institutional capacity constraints were considered to relate more generally to weak governance of CCA. In light of our research findings, the absence of local higher education institutions in CCA activities should be addressed. The support of such institutions would provide an important mechanism to progress both capacity development as well as partnerships and coordination between different types of organizations and relevant sectors.

Policy relevance

Capacity for CCA within Cambodian health and water sectors was perceived to be very constrained across a range of interdependent factors. Increasing funding was ranked as the highest priority for building capacity for CCA; however, governance factors such as ‘improved cooperation’ were also ranked highly. Improving stakeholders' awareness of the availability of adaptation funds and resources, and their responsiveness to funding criteria, is an important implication of our research, as is improving the mobilization of local resources and the private sector. To address the issue of weak cooperation among stakeholders, improving the coordination function of the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC) regarding stakeholder engagement and capacity building is crucial. Ensuring that CCA activities are based on sound information and knowledge from across different disciplines and, importantly, include the perspectives of vulnerable people themselves, ultimately underpins and supports the realization of the above priorities.     

A load-based CO2 cap in the power sector

Oregon's governor has proposed a load-based cap and trade programme that limits carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions to 10% below 1990 levels by 2020. A load-based programme is different from the source-based European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), as it regulates emissions sources, located outside the state, that serve Oregon's electricity load. This article describes the stakeholder process that developed the legislative proposal for the load-based cap. The Oregon Clean Energy Planning Model©, a modified capacity expansion model of annual load resource balances, is used to estimate programme costs. The net present value of the climate policy to Oregon ranges from a $518 million benefit to a $414 million cost under various load growth scenarios. Programme benefits are possible under low and medium load growth because the societal returns of energy efficiency exceed its cost over the life of the programme. CO₂ allowance prices in 2017–2020 are estimated in the medium case at approximately $21 per tonne. Low energy efficiency deployment could raise allowance costs to $36, while an aggressive efficiency programme could reduce them to $13.50. Competition for Northwest renewable resources could increase allowance prices in final phase to $37, indicating the interdependence in programme design among state climate policies.     

Multilevel risk governance and urban adaptation policy

Despite a flurry of activity in cities on climate change and growing interest in the research community, climate policy at city-scale remains fragmented and basic tools to facilitate good decision-making are lacking. This paper draws on an interdisciplinary literature review to establish a multilevel risk governance conceptual framework. It situates the local adaptation policy challenge and action within this to explore a range of institutional questions associated with strengthening local adaptation and related functions of local government. It highlights the value of institutional design to include analytic-deliberative practice, focusing on one possible key tool to support local decision-making—that of boundary organizations to facilitate local science-policy assessment. After exploring a number of examples of boundary organisations in place today, the authors conclude that a number of institutional models are valid. A common feature across the different approaches is the establishment of a science-policy competence through active deliberation and shared analysis engaging experts and decision-makers in an iterative exchange of information. Important features that vary include the geographic scope of operation and the origin of funding, the level and form of engagement of different actors, and the relationship with “producers” of scientific information. National and sub-national (regional) governments may play a key role to provide financial and technical assistance to support the creation of such boundary organizations with an explicit mandate to operate at local levels; in turn, in a number of instances boundary organizations have been shown to be able to facilitate local partnerships, engagement and decision-making on adaptation. While the agenda for multi-level governance of climate change is inevitably much broader than this, first steps by national governments to work with sub-national governments, urban authorities and other stakeholders to advance capacity in this area could be an important step for local adaptation policy agenda.     

Difficulties in accounting for private finance in international climate policy

It is widely acknowledged that private finance has a key role to play in achieving low-carbon development and resilience to climate change. However, while there have been several studies that have closely examined the data on public climate finance, there have been few such studies of the private climate-related finance data. There is a political dimension to accounting for ‘private finance’ given the commitment of industrialized countries – enshrined in the Copenhagen Accord and the Cancun Agreements – to mobilize US$100 billion of public and private finance for developing countries by 2020, on an annual basis. The availability and quality of data for different types of private climate finance flows with climate benefits (investments, carbon market payments, and voluntary funding) are analysed, and these flows are assessed according to various criteria for inclusion in the $100 billion figure. While existing data suggest that private climate finance invested in developing countries and mobilized by industrialized countries might currently be in the range of $27–123 billion per year, this number is a questionable point of reference. Existing data are limited and of very poor quality: definitions of ‘private climate finance’ are missing and data are hardly verified. Therefore, policy makers will first have to clearly define ‘private climate finance’ and develop systems for measuring, reporting, and verifying it, before using private finance numbers in international climate agreements.     

Policies for reducing agricultural sector vulnerability to climate change in Mali

Abstract

The Mali agricultural sector and the country's food security are potentially vulnerable to climate change. Policies may be able to mitigate some of the climate change vulnerability. This article investigates several policy changes that may reduce vulnerability, including climate-specific and other policies. The policy set includes migration of cropping patterns, development of high-temperature-resistant cultivars, reduction in soil productivity loss, cropland expansion, adoption of improved cultivars, and changes in trade patterns. When all policies are considered together, results under climate change show an annual gain of $252 million in economic benefits as opposed to a $161 million loss without policy adjustment. Simultaneously, undernourishment is reduced to 17% of the Malian population as compared with 64% without policy adjustment. We also find tradeoffs in cases between economic benefits and undernourishment. Policies are also studied individually and collectively. Overall, the results indicate that policy can play an important role in reducing climate change vulnerability in Mali.     

Standardized estimates of climate change damages for the United States

Nordhaus (1991), Cline (1992), Fankhauser (1992), and Titus (1992) have published comprehensive estimates of annual climate change damages to the United States in about 2060 that vary from $55 billion to $111 billion ($1990). The estimates are comprehensive because they address market and nonmarket impacts. They based their estimates on different assumptions about the rates of climate change and sea level rise, rates of return on investment, and changes in population and income. In addition, many of the damage estimates, although reported for a 2.5–3.0 °C warming, were based on studies that assumed higher rates of warming. Thus, these studies may have overestimated damages associated with a 2.5–3.0 °C warming. In this paper, the results of these studies were standardized for a 2.5 °C warming, a 50-cm sea level rise, 1990 income and population, and a 4% real rate of return on investments. After standardization, the total damage estimates range from $42.3 billion to $52.8 billion, slightly less than 1% of United States GNP in 1990. Yet, within individual sectors, such as agriculture and electricity, standardized damages differ by more than an order of magnitude. In addition, a significant amount of speculation underlies the damage estimates. Thus, the small range of total standardized damages and apparent agreement about the magnitude of such damages should be interpreted with caution.     

How does the World Bank shape global environmental governance agendas for coasts? 50 years of small-scale fisheries aid reveals paradigm shifts over time

Small-scale fisheries are becoming a global social and environmental concern. The contribution of marine small-scale fisheries to global food security and coastal livelihoods, coupled with the significant challenges they face, has attracted increasing attention and aid from environmental organizations, philanthropies, and multilateral agencies over recent decades. Our study attends to the understudied role of the World Bank, the largest individual funder shaping present and future sustainability of coastal marine regions, as a key actor shaping global environmental governance paradigms. We asked how funding to the sector has changed over the last 50 years and why, outlining distinct patterns in the flow of small-scale fisheries aid and the underlying intervention models. We contextualize our quantitative analysis of aid patterns over time with qualitative interview data with bank staff, identifying underlying paradigm shifts driven by internal and external factors. More than $2.48 billion was allocated by the World Bank to marine fisheries over the last 50 years, approximately 47% (~$1.17 billion) of which was targeted to marine small-scale fisheries. Three distinct funding periods are identified: rising support to SSF from the 1970s to mid-1980s; a sharp decline in funding in the mid-to-late 1980s and low levels of funding throughout the 1990s; and a steady return to funding SSF in the mid-2000s up to the present. Over time, Bank-funded interventions shifted from pure economic development in the earlier era, to an emphasis on governance and multi-dimensional environmental goals in the recent period. To understand why, we used key-informant interviews to unpack major internal drivers: internal staff changes and presence of key individuals, the decentralization and recentralization of decision-making, and the organization’s shifting emphasis from traditional economic growth to multi-dimensional objectives of poverty reduction, among others. External drivers behind funding and paradigm shifts included pressure from the environmental movement, the rise of sustainable development discourses, key global environmental summits in the 1990s, and rising levels of interest in the fisheries sector by the governments of both donor and recipient countries. Processes of ‘paradigm shifts’ were not swift or singular, rather they were affected by multiple, convergent factors over time. Our findings contribute to the literature on multi-lateral institutions as key actors in environmental governance shaping global development thinking, illustrating the arc of the last half-century of fisheries aid at the Bank while highlighting present dilemmas and future challenges that actors interested in working towards sustainable marine small-scale fisheries face.     

Obtaining public support for North-South climate funding: Evidence from conjoint experiments in donor countries

The adoption of the Warsaw mechanism on loss and damage has again highlighted the North-South divide in those parts of UNFCCC negotiations dealing with international climate finance. Current estimates put required funding from rich countries at 50–100 billion Euros per year to induce non-Annex I countries to take on greenhouse gas limitation commitments and to assist highly vulnerable countries. Results from survey-embedded conjoint experiments can help policy-makers anticipate opportunities and pitfalls in designing large-scale climate funding schemes. We implemented such experiments in the United States and Germany to better understand what institutional design characteristics are likely to garner more public support for climate funding among citizens in key developed countries. We find that climate funding receives more public support if it flows to efficient governments, funding decisions are made jointly by donor and recipient countries, funding is used both for mitigation and adaptation, and other donor countries contribute a large share. Contrary to what one might expect, climate change damage levels, income, and emissions in/of potential recipient countries have no significant effect on public support. These findings suggest that finance mechanisms that focus purely on compensating developing countries, without contributing to the global public good of mitigation, will find it hard to garner public support.     

The Value of Improved ENSO Prediction to U.S. Agriculture

The economic value of long-range weather prediction is measured by the increase in social welfare arising from the use of the prediction in economic decisionmaking. This paper describes a study of the economic value of ENSO prediction to U.S. agriculture. The interdisciplinary study involved the analysis of data and models from meteorology, plant science, and economics under a framework based on Bayesian decision analysis. The estimated annual value of perfect ENSO prediction to U.S. agriculture is $323 million.     

Effects of Climatic Change on a Water Dependent Regional Economy: A Study of the Texas Edwards Aquifer

Global climate change portends shifts in water demand and availability which may damage or cause intersectoral water reallocation in water short regions. This study investigates effects of climatic change on regional water demand and supply as well as the economy in the San Antonio Texas Edwards Aquifer region. This is done using a regional model which portrays both hydrological and economic activities. The overall results indicate that changes in climatic conditions reduce water resource availability and increase water demand. Specifically, a regional welfare loss of $2.2–$6.8million per year may occur as a result of climatic change. Additionally, if springflows are to be maintained at the currently desired level to protect endangered species, pumping must be reduced by 9–20% at an additional costof $0.5 to $2 million per year.     

Evaluation of Weather Catastrophe Data for Use in Climate Change Investigations

A 1950–1994 data set of major weather losses developed by the property insurance industry was examined to assess its potential utility in climate change research and use in assessing the relevance of recent extreme losses in the United States. A process for adjusting these historical storm losses to ever-changing factors including dollar values, amount of insurance coverage per area, and the sensitivity of society to damaging storms was developed by the industry. Analysis of the temporal frequency and losses of these adjusted weather catastrophes revealed differences according to the amount of loss. Temporal changes since 1975 in the catastrophes causing $35 to $100 million in loss were strongly related to changes in U.S. population, whereas catastrophes that created insured losses greater than $100 million appear related to both shifting weather conditions and to regional population changes. This evaluation revealed that the industry's catastrophe adjustment technique did not adequately allow for changes in various demographic and social factors affecting damage; however, results suggest use of population values for normalizing the adjusted catastrophe database to allow meaningful studies of their temporal variability.     

Economic Implications of Potential ENSO Frequency and Strength Shifts

Some argue that global climate change may alter the frequency and strength of extreme events. This paper examines the economic damages in the agricultural sector arising from a shift in El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event frequency and strength. The assumptions about the frequency of ENSO shift are motivated by an article by Timmermann etal. (1999). The damage estimates reported here are in the context of the global agricultural system. Annual damages in the 3 to 4 hundred million U.S. dollar range are found if only the frequency of ENSO events changes. However, annual damages rise to over $1 billion if the events also intensify in strength. Event anticipation and crop mix adaption on the part of farmers can help offset the damages but cannot fully alleviate them.     

Extending timber rotations: carbon and cost implications

A number of studies have suggested that incentives for carbon sequestration could lead to longer rotation periods for even-aged managed forests. In this article we examine the potential costs and quantity of sequestered carbon from extending rotation ages in softwood forests of the southern and western USA. A model of optimal rotations when carbon is a valued asset was developed to show how optimal rotations adjust when carbon is priced. Data on 324 types and site classes of softwood forests in southern and western states of the USA were used to examine the costs of extending rotations. The results were then aggregated by applying the marginal cost curves to inventory data within each county in these states. The results indicate that in these 12 states, about 15 million tCO₂ could be sequestered for less than $7/tCO₂ (1 tCO₂ = 1,000 kg CO₂), although for substantially higher carbon prices of $55/tCO₂, up to 209 million tCO₂ could be sequestered. Timber prices were found to have an important influence on the marginal costs of carbon sequestration, with site quality being of secondary importance. The results also showed that at $55/tCO₂ potentially 1 million ha of softwood forests could be set aside, mostly in the western states.     

南京过去100年极端日降水量模拟研究

在南京过去100年日降水资料的基础上,利用极值理论中的区组模型和阈值模型分析了极端日降水分布特征.首先通过广义极值(GEV)模型模拟了日降水的年极值序列(AMDR),用极大似然估计(MLE)方法计算了模型的参数,并借助轮廓似然函数估计出参数的精确误差区间,同时采用4种较直观的诊断图形对模型的合理性进行全面评估,结果表明Frechet是区组模型中最适合描述极端日降水分布特征的函数.其次,将日降水序列分3种情景构建极值分布的阈值模型(GPD),考察了观测数据的规模对应用该模型的限制,重点讨论了如何针对给定观测样本选择合适的阈值收集极值信息.分析结果认为,长度不小于50年的气候序列,采用24 mm的日降水量作为临界阈值均能进行GPD分析.该阈值处于年降水序列第91个百分位附近,即对目前长度为50年左右的日观测资料,第91个百分位点以上的数据基本能满足GPD研究的需要.另外,根据GEV和GPD对未来极端降水重现水平的推断情况,GPD预测值的置信区间要比GEV的窄,极值推断的不确定性相对也较小,更适合用于研究中国目前规模不大的气候资料.最后,对GPD模型的形状参数和尺度参数进行变换,分别引入描述线性变化的动态变量,分析降水序列中潜在的变异行为对极值理论应用的影响.这种变异包括降水序列中长期的均值变化及百分位变化,从模拟结果看,暂未发现资料变异行为对极值分析产生显著于扰.