Economic Impacts of Carbon Charges on U.S. Agriculture

We evaluate the farm sector impacts that would result from implementing a system of carbon based charges on energy intensive inputs. Our emphasis is on production costs, crop acreage, commodity prices, input use, farm income, and farm welfare. The charges considered – $14, $100, and$200 per metric ton of carbon – were developed from the literature and areconsistent with reducing U.S. GHG emissions to a 1990 minus 7% level by 2010 underdifferent levels of carbon trading and developing country participation. Impacts are relatively modest for a charge of $14 per mt. Relative to baseline conditions, producer and consumer surplus decline 0.02 and 0.03 percent, respectively. Across crop and livestock commodities, price increases and production declines are all less than 1.0%. As the carbon charge increases, farm sector impacts become more pronounced and determination of whether the aggregate effect is significant or not becomes more subjective.     

美国碳排放权交易体系评析

通过评析当前美国最主要的两类碳排放交易体系--自愿减排和总量控制与交易体系的发展现状与前景得到,自愿减排终因需求不足而难以维系,只有建立碳排放的总量控制与交易体系,才能进行持续的碳交易,完成减碳目标。借鉴美国区域温室气体行动、西部气候倡议和加州总量控制与交易体系的经验,建议中国选择具有一定基础的省份或行业试行总量控制与交易体系,初期排放配额的分配以免费发放为主,拍卖为辅,并严格控制碳抵消的数量和范围等,然后再逐步过渡到拍卖方式。     

Policy solutions in the U.S.

The paper focuses on relocation, retreat, zoning, insurance, and subsidy as major dimensions of coastal hazard mitigation measures that have resurfaced as potent forces for combating coastal inundation and climate change. It reviews the issues surrounding the practice of these measures and discusses compatibilities of policies, engineering measures, and natural defense. Property rights, development interest, and distorted financial incentives pose as main barriers to coastal relocation and retreat policies in hazard-prone areas. To understand and propose coastal adaptation solutions, the paper recommends place-based studies of local coastal adaptation strategies. Place-based studies offer an in-depth knowledge of local conditions specifically regarding the level of implementation of hazard mitigation policies, and shed light on important trade-offs and synergies of various hazard policies. In addition, coupling existing hazard mitigation policies with coastal management and community management can better inform long-term and comprehensive planning of coastal adaptation.     

全球碳排放空间约束条件下美国退出《巴黎协定》对中欧日碳排放空间和减排成本的影响

应用全球多部门、多区域动态可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型,采用情景分析方法,评估美国退出《巴黎协定》后,由于其碳排放路径的变化对国际气候谈判中的3个重要谈判方中国、欧盟和日本实现国家自主贡献（NDC）和2℃目标情景下碳排放空间和减排成本的影响。结果表明：在全球碳排放固定且分配方式固定的条件下,美国不同程度的退约将为自身获得较大的碳排放空间,同时挤压其他地区,包括中国、欧盟和日本实现NDC和2℃目标的碳排放空间,将推高中国、欧盟和日本实现NDC和2℃目标的碳价。2030年,2℃目标下中国碳价的升幅将达4.4~14.6美元/t,欧盟为9.7~35.4美元/t,日本为16.0~53.5美元/t。同时将增加中国、欧盟和日本等其他国家和地区的GDP损失。2030年,2℃目标下中国GDP损失的升幅将达220.0亿~711.0亿美元（相当于16.4~53.1美元/人）,欧盟为93.5亿~321.4亿美元（相当于20.7~71.1美元/人）,日本为41.3亿~134.5亿美元（相当于34.3~111.7美元/人）。     

美国退出《巴黎协定》对全球温室气体排放的影响

现有研究表明美国退出《巴黎协定》将会在2025年导致其国内排放增加约1.2 Gt CO₂-eq,然而美国退出《巴黎协定》对全球气候治理的影响不仅限于此,还包括资金效应、政治效应,以及惯性效应等对全球排放的间接和长期影响。本文通过构建体现不同效应的全球温室气体排放情景,分析了美国退出《巴黎协定》后对全球温室气体排放可能造成的不同影响。结果表明,美国退出《巴黎协定》的自身效应、资金效应、对伞形国家的政治效应和对发展中国家的政治效应,将分别导致全球2030年的年温室气体净排放量(扣除碳汇吸收量后的温室气体排放量)上升2.0、1.0、1.0和1.9 Gt CO₂-eq,并导致全球2015—2100年的累计排放量分别上升246.9、145.3、102.0和270.2 Gt CO₂-eq。为防止美国退出《巴黎协定》的不利影响进一步扩大,中国应积极引领全球气候治理制度的建设与发展,与各国紧密合作全面平衡地推进《巴黎协定》的落实和实施。     

A Summary of Climate Change Impact Assessments from the U.S. Country Studies Program

Forty-nine countries participating in the U.S. Country Studies Program (USCSP) assessed climate change impacts in one or more of eight sectors: coastal resources, agriculture, grasslands/livestock, water resources, forests, fisheries, wildlife, and health. The studies were generally limited to analysis of first order biophysical effects, e.g., coastal inundation, crop yield, and runoff changes. There were some limited studies of adaptation. We review and synthesize the results of the impact assessments conducted under the USCSP. The studies found that sea level rise could cause substantial inundation and erosion of valuable lands, but, protecting developed areas would be economically sound. The studies showed mixed results for changes in crop yields, with a tendency toward decreased yields in African and Asian countries, particularly southern Asian countries, and mixed results in European and Latin American countries. Adaptation could significantly affect yields, but it is not clear whether the adaptations are affordable or feasible. The studies tend to show a high sensitivity of runoff to climate change, which could result in increases in droughts or floods. The impacts on grasslands and livestock are mixed, but there appears to be a large capacity for adaptation. Human health problems could increase, particularly for populations in low-latitude countries with inadequate access to health care. The USCSP assessments found that the composition of forests is likely to change, while biomass could be reduced. Some wildlife species were estimated to have reduced populations. The major contribution of the USCSP was in building capacity in developing countries to assess potential climate impacts. However, many of the studies did not analyze the implications of biophysical impacts of climate change on socioeconomic conditions, cross-sectoral integration of impacts, autonomous adaptation, or proactive adaptation. Follow-on work should attempt to develop capacity in developing and transition countries to conduct more integrated studies of climate change impacts.     

美国退出《巴黎协定》的原因、影响及中国的对策

综合应用定性与定量分析方法,分析美国宣布退出《巴黎协定》的原因,评估美国退出《巴黎协定》对《巴黎协定》履约前景的影响并提出中国的应对策略。美国宣布退出《巴黎协定》是全球气候治理的重大事件,将对《巴黎协定》的履约产生多重影响,包括将对《巴黎协定》的普遍性构成严重伤害,动摇以《巴黎协定》为核心的国际气候治理体制的基础;将导致《巴黎协定》履约中的领导力赤字问题显著恶化;可能引发不良示范效应,降低国际气候合作信心;将会对其他地区碳排放空间形成不可忽视的挤压,进而推高其他地区碳减排成本;美国大幅削减国际气候援助资金将削弱发展中国家减缓和适应气候变化的能力;美国延迟采取气候行动可能导致全球减排错失最佳时间窗口;美国大幅削减气候变化基础研究经费将对未来全球气候科学研究产生不利影响,进而影响《巴黎协定》履约谈判的权威性等,最后显著加大实现温控目标的难度,甚至导致目标无法实现。就全球气候治理的全局而言,全球气候治理的框架不会坍塌,但确实会受到动摇;全球气候治理的进程不会逆转,但确实会迟滞。美国宣布退出《巴黎协定》使中国面临多重挑战,其中之一是中国面临急剧上升的期望中国承担全球气候治理领导的国际压力。为此,中国对内应实现国家自主贡献的上限目标,对外应积极重建全球气候治理集体领导体制,即用C5取代G2,同时继续努力改变美国对气候变化的消极立场。     

Cluster analysis of Southeastern U.S. climate stations

Summary A two-step cluster analysis of 449 Southeastern climate stations is used to objectively determine general climate clusters (groups of climate stations) for eight southeastern states. The purpose is objectively to define regions of climatic homogeneity that should perform more robustly in subsequent climatic impact models. This type of analysis has been successfully used in many related climate research problems including the determination of corn/climate districts in Iowa (Ortiz-Valdez, 1985) and the classification of synoptic climate types (Davis, 1988).These general climate clusters may be more appropriate for climate research than the standard climate divisions (CD) groupings of climate stations, which are modifications of the agro-economic United States Department of Agriculture crop reporting districts. Unlike the CD's, these objectively determined climate clusters are not restricted by state borders and thus have reduced multicollinearity which makes them more appropriate for the study of the impact of climate and climatic change.With 5 Figures     

Increasing major hail losses in the U.S.

Property losses due to hailstorms on April 13–14, 2006, resulted in Midwestern property losses that totaled $1.822 billion, an amount considerably more than the previous record high of $1.5 billion set by an April 2001 hail event. The huge April 2006 loss was largely due to multiple severe storms with frequent large hail hitting major metropolitan areas. A highly unstable air mass that developed on April 13 led to several supercell storms and they then produced large hailswaths across portions of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin during a 30-h period. This storm event and prior recent major hail losses occurred when several major hailstorms developed and then traveled for hundreds of kilometers. The nation’s top ten loss events during 1950–2006 reveal a notable temporal increase with most losses in the 1992–2006 period. Causes for the increases could be an increasing frequency of very unstable atmospheric conditions leading to bigger, longer lasting storms, and/or a greatly expanded urban society that has become increasingly vulnerable to hailstorms.     

美国气候变化科学计划综述

简要回顾美国气候变化研究沿革,分析美国制定和实施气候变化科学计划(USCCSP)的背景,综述USCCSP的研究目标、研究领域和组织管理方式。首先重点阐述USCCSP的关键科学发现以及全球和美国气候变化的主要科学结论,介绍USCCSP综合评估产品。然后论述美国国家科学院研究理事会(NRC)对USCCSP进展的评估,评述未来美国气候变化研究的战略框架和领域。最后在归纳美国气候变化研究特色的基础上,阐述对我国制定长期战略规划、深化基础研究、强化模式创新、推进观测系统和资料系统建设、加强科学评估和应用服务、加快立法进程等方面的启示。     

美国现行的地基气象观测系统

美国气象部门在近十几年对其地基气象观测系统进行了新的一轮现代化的更新换代.目前,这一过程已基本完成.现对该系统的主要情况和特点作简要的介绍.     

Regional patterns of U.S. household carbon emissions

Market-based policies to address fossil fuel-related externalities including climate change typically operate by raising the price of those fuels. Increases in energy prices have important consequences for a typical U.S. household that spent almost $4,000 per year on electricity, fuel oil, natural gas, and gasoline in 2005. A key question for policymakers is how these consequences vary over different regions and subpopulations across the country—especially as adjustment and compensation programs are designed to protect more vulnerable regions. To answer this question, we use non-publicly available data from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey over the period 1984–2000 to estimate long-run geographic variation in household use of electricity, fuel oil, natural gas, and gasoline, as well as the associated incidence of a $10 per ton tax on carbon dioxide (ignoring behavioral response). We find substantial variation: incidence from the tax range from $97 dollars per year per household in New York County, New York to $235 per year per household in Tensas Parish, Louisiana. This variation can be explained by differences in energy use, carbon intensity of electricity generation, and electricity regulation.     

Global CO2 emissions trading: Early lessons from the U.S. acid rain program

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is implementing a program of SO₂ emission allowance trading as part of the Acid Rain Program authorized by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. Electric utilities may use allowance trading as part of their compliance strategy to meet SO₂ emission reduction requirements, which begin in 1995. In the interest of a free market in emission credits, some utilities began trading in 1992. A strict but essential requirement for continuous-emissions monitoring was developed to support the trading program. This program is being widely watched and will be evaluated as part of an effort to determine if market concepts can be successfully extended to other environmental issues. One such issue is greenhouse gas emissions and their link with global warming and climate change. This paper focuses on the early lessons learned, issues, and challenges involved in going from a domestic electric utility SO₂ emissions trading program to inter-industry, inter-gas and international as well as national emissions trading and offsets programs. Prominent among these issues are CO₂ allowance allocations, equity, emissions monitoring, enforcement, and cost-effectiveness.Paper presented at the90th Annual Meeting of the Association of American Geographers, San Francisco, April 2, 1994, at the Air & Waste Management Association International Specialty Conference onGlobal Climate Change, Tempe, Arizona, April 8, 1994, and at a Cornell University Center for the Environment seminar on global climate change, April 25, 1994. I thank Michael Grubb, Joe Kruger, Elliot Lieberman, Brian McLean, Renee Rico, Richard Schuler and two anonymous referees for helpful comments on previous drafts of this paper. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author alone, and do not necessarily represent the policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.     

Potential Soil C Sequestration on U.S. Agricultural Soils

Soil carbon sequestration has been suggested as a means to help mitigate atmospheric CO₂ increases, however there is limited knowledge aboutthe magnitude of the mitigation potential. Field studies across the U.S. provide information on soil C stock changes that result from changes in agricultural management. However, data from such studies are not readily extrapolated to changes at a national scale because soils, climate, and management regimes vary locally and regionally. We used a modified version of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) soil organic C inventory method, together with the National Resources Inventory (NRI) and other data, to estimate agricultural soil C sequestration potential in the conterminous U.S. The IPCC method estimates soil C stock changes associated with changes in land use and/or land management practices. In the U.S., the NRI provides a detailed record of land use and management activities on agricultural land that can be used to implement the IPCC method. We analyzed potential soil C storage from increased adoption of no-till, decreased fallow operations, conversion of highly erodible land to grassland, and increased use of cover crops in annual cropping systems. The results represent potentials that do not explicitly consider the economic feasibility of proposed agricultural production changes, but provide an indication of the biophysical potential of soil C sequestration as a guide to policy makers. Our analysis suggests that U.S. cropland soils have the potential to increase sequestered soil C by an additional 60–70 Tg (10¹²g) C yr^{– 1}, over present rates of 17 Tg C yr^–1(estimated using the IPCC method), with widespread adoption of soil C sequestering management practices. Adoption of no-till on all currently annually cropped area (129Mha) would increase soil C sequestration by 47 Tg C yr^–1. Alternatively, use of no-till on 50% of annual cropland, with reduced tillage practices on the other 50%, would sequester less – about37 Tg C yr^–1. Elimination of summer fallow practices and conversionof highly erodible cropland to perennial grass cover could sequester around 20 and 28Tg C yr^–1, respectively. The soil C sequestration potentialfrom including a winter cover crop on annual cropping systems was estimated at 40Tg C yr^–1. All rates were estimated for a fifteen-yearprojection period, and annual rates of soil C accumulations would be expected to decrease substantially over longer time periods. The total sequestration potential we have estimated for the projection period (83 Tg C yr^–1) represents about 5% of 1999total U.S. CO₂ emissions or nearly double estimated CO₂ emissionsfrom agricultural production (43 Tg C yr^–1). For purposes ofstabilizing or reducing CO₂ emissions, e.g., by 7% of 1990 levels asoriginally called for in the Kyoto Protocol, total potential soil C sequestration would represent 15% of that reduction level from projected 2008 emissions(2008 total greenhouse gas emissions less 93% of 1990 greenhouse gasemissions). Thus, our analysis suggests that agricultural soil C sequestration could play a meaningful, but not predominant, role in helping mitigate greenhouse gas increases.     

Global Climate Change: Why U.S. Insurers Care

The number of natural catastrophes in this decade is four times greater than in the 1960s; economic losses are eight times greater; and insured losses are 15 times greater. The insurance industry's financial interest is inter-dependent with climate and weather. Natural events drive the demand for insurance coverage and can threaten the viability of an insurer if it is over-exposed in high risk areas. Early in the 1990s, the industry began to recognize that historical data were potentially misleading with respect to future natural catastrophe exposure. The U.S. insurance industry is pursuing a variety of new approaches including: the use of catastrophe computer models to integrate the natural knowledge about extreme events taken from the sciences into the actuarial sciences. The evaluation of building codes and building code enforcement in every community in the country enhanced its support for hazard mitigation.     

U.S. Agriculture and Climate Change: New Results

We examined the impacts on U.S. agriculture of transient climate change assimulated by 2 global general circulation models focusing on the decades ofthe 2030s and 2090s. We examined historical shifts in the location of cropsand trends in the variability of U.S. average crop yields, finding thatnon-climatic forces have likely dominated the north and westward movement ofcrops and the trends in yield variability. For the simulated future climateswe considered impacts on crops, grazing and pasture, livestock, pesticide use,irrigation water supply and demand, and the sensitivity to international tradeassumptions, finding that the aggregate of these effects were positive for theU.S. consumer but negative, due to declining crop prices, for producers. Weexamined the effects of potential changes in El Niño/SouthernOscillation (ENSO) and impacts on yield variability of changes in mean climateconditions. Increased losses occurred with ENSO intensity and frequencyincreases that could not be completely offset even if the events could beperfectly forecasted. Effects on yield variability of changes in meantemperatures were mixed. We also considered case study interactions ofclimate, agriculture, and the environment focusing on climate effects onnutrient loading to the Chesapeake Bay and groundwater depletion of theEdward's Aquifer that provides water for municipalities and agriculture to theSan Antonio, Texas area. While only case studies, these results suggestenvironmental targets such as pumping limits and changes in farm practices tolimit nutrient run-off would need to be tightened if current environmentalgoals were to be achieved under the climate scenarios we examined     

OCS,H2S,and CS2 fluxes from a salt water marsh

The diurnal-to-monthly behavior of the fluxes of OCS, H₂S, and CS₂ from a mixed-Spartina grass-covered site in a Wallops Island salt water marsh was determined through a series of experiments in August and September, 1982. Absolute flux values were determined for OCS and H₂S, while only relative values were determined for CS₂. The rates of emission of OCS and H₂S were observed to vary diurnally and to be strongly influenced by tides. The time-averaged flux values show that such mixed-Spartina stands are insignificant ( 1%) global sources of H₂S or CS₂ and insignificant contributors to the global OCS cycle (< 1%). These results demonstrate that some marsh regions play a minor role in the global sulfur budget and, consequently, that the inclusion of such areas in extrapolations of measurements of more productive regions could lead to an overestimate of the role of salt water marshes in the global sulfur budget.