土壤温湿状况对黄河源区水循环过程的影响

众多研究表明黄河源区受气候变化影响,土壤活动层逐渐下降。土壤温、湿度是陆面过程及地球系统中的重要物理量,它们通过影响地表能量和物质交换而影响大气环流和降水等。利用WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）模式,选取2个典型年分别设计了2个控制试验和2个敏感性试验来探讨土壤初始状况变化对区域水循环的影响,通过再循环降水率定量描述不同气候背景下陆面对黄河源区水循环的影响,并尝试从环流角度进一步分析土壤初始状况改变对源区水循环影响的物理机制。结果表明：陆面对水循环的影响受大尺度环流背景场影响较大,较弱的环流背景下再循环降水率较强环流背景大5%左右。土壤初始状况对水循环要素有一定程度的影响。土壤初始温度升高/降低,水汽通量增多/减少,后期降水增大/减小。不同环流背景下,土壤记忆时间不同,在弱的环流背景下,土壤记忆时间要长,初始状况扰动可持续1～2个月。     

General climatic controls and topoclimatic variations in Central and High Asia

Basic features of current spatial and seasonal climate variations in Central and High Asia are presented. Large-scale circulation modes were inferred from NCAR/CDAS General Circulation Model (GCM) data and interpreted with particular emphasis on the Asian Monsoon circulation. Using spatial high-resolution estimates of radiation, temperature and precipitation covering Central and High Asia in a regular grid network with a grid-cell spacing of 1 km², topoclimatic variations are investigated and discussed with respect to their major barometric and topographic controls. In general, weather patterns of Central and High Asia are determined by tropical monsoon as well as extratropical circulation modes. Associated synoptic conditions and processes, in particular the alternation of tropical and polar air masses, lead to distinct large-scale variations valid for all climatic parameters in all seasons. The regional analysis and discussion of climatic gradients and environmental lapse rates stress the significant role of Asia's marked orography and its influence on advective processes, flow currents and topoclimatic settings. Preliminary estimations of the annual water balance, however, are still afflicted with major uncertainties owing to methodical limits in the spatial estimation of precipitation rates and widely lacking evapotranspiration records, particularly in the Tibetan Plateau and adjacent high mountain systems. Given the importance of the mountainous water resources for the affected economies, further regional investigations on the water cycle and its components are vital future tasks for climate research.     

Late Holocene effective precipitation variations in the maritime regions of south-west Scandinavia

At present, the climate in south-west Scandinavia is predominantly controlled by westerlies carrying moist Atlantic air, which forms a main source of precipitation in all seasons. Past variations in the ratio between precipitation and evaporation (effective precipitation) from terrestrial sites, however, may indicate changes in the degree of maritime influence. Palaeoclimatic archives in this region are thus ideally situated to study past changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. In this study, multi-proxy comparisons of records from three peat bogs and two lakes are used to reconstruct regional-scale variations of effective precipitation in south-west Sweden during the Late Holocene. The total aeolian sediment influx into two peat bogs is used as a proxy for storm activity. The frequency of storm phases increases strongly after ca 2500 cal yrs BP. Dry conditions occur on a regional scale around 4800–4400, 2000–1700, 1300–1000, 700–500 and 300–100 cal yrs BP. In addition, a comparison to winter precipitation reconstructed from four Norwegian glaciers shows similar variations during the past ca 2000 years. This indicates that the climate in both regions was controlled by large-scale atmospheric circulation dynamics of the North Atlantic region. The strong variability of effective precipitation and storm activity after ca 2500 cal yrs BP indicates a highly variable climate.     

基于水循环分析的水资源乘数效应评价:以黄河上游北川河流域为例

针对半干旱地区大规模植被恢复对流域水资源的影响,引入经济学的乘数效应理论,探索创建了基于流域水循环演变的水资源效应评价模型,从广义水资源的角度出发,评价了植被恢复引起水循环演变条件下水资源效应的变化趋势。结果表明:大规模植被恢复引起北川河流域水循环条件发生明显变化,在降水条件基本稳定的情况下,植被恢复前后地表产流系数从0.254降为0.207,基流系数从0.156降为0.134;陆地水循环过程中,土壤-植被系统的有效用水占比增加,土壤水-地下水系统有效用水占比减小;单位降水量(100 mm)的狭义水资源效应降低了7.2 mm,涵盖生态效应的广义水资源效应增加了5.2 mm,水循环变化引起流域水资源效应提高。植被恢复引起降水在不同水循环环节上分配的变化趋势符合国家以生态为核心的布局,对提高半干旱地区流域水资源综合效应发挥着重要作用。     

Spatial variations of monsoonal rain in eastern China: Instrumental, historic and speleothem records

We select four caves and their nearby cities in the monsoonal region of China for studying the relationships among precipitation, temperature, summer monsoon intensity and stalagmite δ¹⁸O. The instrumental, historic and stalagmite δ¹⁸O records from these areas show strong spatial disparities on annual to decadal scales, so that climatic conditions in a single location cannot represent these of the entire eastern China. On time scales <500 years, stronger summer monsoon may lead to higher rainfall in some locations but not over eastern China. Correlation between the summer monsoon strength and precipitation is not only location-dependent but also changes with time. One may not use the paleoclimatic pattern of cold–dry and warm–wet on glacial/interglacial ages throughout all time scales for climatic conditions in the monsoonal region. On centennial to millennial scales, stalagmite δ¹⁸O variation trend from eastern China resemble solar irradiance with lighter δ¹⁸O corresponding to increased solar irradiance, and vice versa. The similar trends may reflect climatic feedbacks link to solar forcing to cause changes in the summer monsoon intensity and/or in monsoonal circulation. Changes in monsoonal circulation and intensity affect (1) summer rainfall intensity, (2) summer/winter precipitation ratio, or (3) ratio of moisture from Indian/Pacific oceans, or a combination of the three. Thus, a speleothem δ¹⁸O record may not be proper to be used as a proxy of paleo-precipitation amount, especially on short time scales. Based on the four stalagmite δ¹⁸O records during the last 2000 years, EASM strength decreased from AD 200 to AD 500, and from AD 1300 to AD 1600 (the 1st half of the Little Ice Age), whereas EASM strength increased from AD 1600 to AD 1900 (the 2nd half of the Little Ice Age). The EASM strength has weakened since early 1900’s.     

Marine records of Holocene climatic variations

Holocene millennial climate variability is smaller than that of the last glaciation, due to the disappearance of large unstable ice sheets. Marine records show that the sea-surface temperature (SST) exhibited small variations, mainly in the high and low latitudes. They may be interpreted as a linear response to the mean annual insolation. Major changes in the hydrological cycle have been evidenced in the Asian and African monsoon area, resulting in enhanced precipitation and large river outflow in the Bay of Bengal and the Gulf of Niger. Enhanced rainfall over the Mediterranean Basin resulted in a weak circulation and sapropel formation below 800-m water depth in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Finally small changes in the thermohaline circulation and the warm North Atlantic Drift have been detected in the Nordic Seas. The Holocene climatic variability is therefore similar to that of the Quaternary, but with small amplitude, while continents experienced large rainfall variations. To cite this article: J.-C. Duplessy et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Study on Precipitation Image Downscaling Based on the Method of Ill-posed Problems Solving

Downscaling of remote sensing precipitation products and the forecasting of circulation model are always the intense interests in hydrology and meteorology. The essence of downscaling is primarily to enhance resolution of observation or simulated rainfall field, and to appropriately increase its details or high frequency characteristics. Precipitation, as the main driving factors of the earth’s hydrologic cycle, not only affects the moisture and heat condition of a certain river basin, but also affects the global water and heat circulation. Based on the properties of rainfall self-similarity structure, the mathematically ill-posed precipitation problem solving method was used in low resolution downscaling precipitation for high resolution reconstruction. When solving the downscaling ill-posed problem, the greedy method of orthogonal matching pursuit was introduced so as to get the best high-resolution estimation in an optimal sense. It is hard to imagine that we might be able to find very similar (in mathematical norms) precipitation patterns over relatively large storm-scales. However, finding similar features over sufficiently small sub-storm scales seems more feasible. Based on the characteristics that small scale organized precipitation features tend to recur across different storm environments, the precipitation of both high and low resolution was obtained by training, which could be used to reconstruct the desired high-resolution precipitation field. Multi-source merged precipitation products were used in this experiment. Given the consideration of incompleteness of merged precipitation dataset, it was firstly interpolated based on the method of Fields of Experts (FoEs), which could solve the problem that common interpolation method could hardly work on the interpolation for dataset where consecutive missing data exists. Secondly, ideal experiments of precipitation products downscaling were carried out, where smooth coupling sampling and resampling operator were adopted respectively. Assessment based on the metrics of fidelity and spatial structural similarity demonstrates that the method used in this paper is feasible.     

Impact of moisture variations on the circulation of the south-west monsoon

The impact of moisture anomalies on the circulation of the south-west Indian monsoon has been studied with a general circulation model. Newtonian relaxation is adopted to subject the model atmosphere under sustained moisture anomalies. The impact of negative anomalies of moisture was seen as a divergent circulation anomaly, while the positive anomaly was a stronger convergent anomaly. Although the humidity fields display a resilient behaviour, and relax back to normal patterns 1–2 days after the forcing terms in humidity are withdrawn, the circulation anomalies created by the moisture variation keeps growing. A feedback between positive moisture anomalies and low level convergence exists, which is terminated in the absence of external forcings.     

A simulation of New Zealand's climate during the Last Glacial Maximum

New Zealand's climate during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has been investigated using the United Kingdom Met Office global (HadAM3H) and regional model (HadRM3H). All models were set up according to the glacial conditions as specified by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), although SSTs and sea-ice were supplied from a set of prior coupled model (HadCM3) runs. The simulated climate of New Zealand during the LGM was mainly compared against a control simulation which was set up for pre-industrial conditions. New Zealand's simulated LGM climate was cooler than today, varying spatially between 2.5 and 4 °C. There was an increase in seasonality in temperature with the seasonal cooling being largest during winter. Excluding the Alpine/Fiordland region, the largest cooling geographically took place in the east of the South Island (ESI). Annual mean precipitation was reduced but there were significant regional and seasonal variations. The main band of precipitation along the West Coast shifted westwards, resulting in a reduction in precipitation over those regions in the Southern Alps that receive the largest amount of precipitation in today's climate. The westerly circulation increased considerably over the North Island and the northern part of the South Island, but did not change much over the rest of the South Island. The stronger westerly wind accentuated the cooling over the western and northern parts of the North Island and it probably reduced the occurrence of incursions of tropical lows over the north of the North Island. The westerly winds were weaker over New Zealand during winter, which appears to be related to enhanced blocking activity during that season. The number and the strength of the southerlies increased, and they were capable of bringing very cold polar air over most of the country. The east of the South Island was affected especially by these cold winds.The simulated cooling during the LGM is not sufficient to limit forest growth. It is proposed here, that together with the general drier and colder conditions, it was the increase in seasonality and extremes of climate that limited the growth of certain vegetation types.     

On the design of paleoenvironmental data networks for estimating large-scale patterns of climate

Guidelines are determined for the spatial density and location of climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) that are appropriate for estimating the continental- to hemispheric-scale pattern of atmospheric circulation (sea-level pressure). Because instrumental records of temperature and precipitation simulate the climatic information that is contained in certain paleoenvironmental records (tree-ring, pollen, and written-documentary records, for example), these guidelines provide useful sampling strategies for reconstructing the pattern of atmospheric circulation from paleoenvironmental records. The statistical analysis uses a multiple linear regression model. The sampling strategies consist of changes in site density (from 0.5 to 2.5 sites per million square kilometers) and site location (from western North American sites only to sites in Japan, North America, and western Europe) of the climatic data. The results showed that the accuracy of specification of the pattern of sea-level pressure: (1) is improved if sites with climatic records are spread as uniformly as possible over the area of interest; (2) increases with increasing site density-at least up to the maximum site density used in this study; (3) is improved if sites cover an area that extends considerably beyond the limits of the area of interest. The accuracy of specification was lower for independent data than for the data that were used to develop the regression model; some skill was found for almost all sampling strategies.     

The influence of orbital parameters on the North American Monsoon system during the Last Interglacial Period

The response of summer precipitation in the western United States to climate variability remains a subject of uncertainty. For example, palaeoclimate records indicate the North American Monsoon (NAM) was stronger and spatially more extensive during the Holocene, whereas recent modelling suggests a weakened NAM response to increasing temperatures. These illustrate diverging pictures of the NAM response to warming. Here, we examine summer precipitation in the southwestern US related to Last Interglacial insolation forcing. Using a high-resolution climate model, we find that Eemian insolation forcing results in overall wetter conditions throughout most of the southwestern US, but significantly drier than present conditions over Arizona. The overall wetter conditions are associated with a northward shift of the anticyclonic circulation aloft and increased moisture in the lower and mid-troposphere during the Eemian. Increased advection of Gulf of Mexico moisture is responsible for increasing precipitation in New Mexico and the northern edges of the NAM region. Drier conditions over Arizona are likely related to reduced local convection associated with reduced vertical moisture transport. These results highlight the spatial complexity of the NAM response to increasing radiative forcing and allow a better understanding of monsoon dynamics and variability in response to a warming climate.     

Net circulation and salinity variations in an open-ended Swedish fjord system

Water circulation and salinity variations above sill levels in the Orust Tjöm fjords on the Swedish west coast, are investigated by means of hydrographic observations and a process-oriented box model. This fjord system, which is situated in the outer part of the Baltic estuary, consists of several basins separated by a number of sills and narrow passages. In contrast to most fjords, it is connected to the sea at both ends. Current measurements at different locations indicate a net, counterclockwise (mainly northward) circulation with an average of about 100 m³ s^?1. Model results and analyses of observations show that this net subtidal through-flow is primarily forced by the difference in steric height between the open ends. Salinity variations in the coastal waters give rise to density driven currents, mainly from the south which dominate the fjord exchange at large. The subtidal net circulation may be important for the properties in the northern parts of the system, particularly during periods of reversal. Validation against measurements shows that the model captures variations in the net circulation, as well as variations of the basin salinities above sill level. A seven-year model run, using monthly hydrographic data as forcing, yielded that the net circulation was counterclockwise during 81% of the time with a long-term average flow of about 70 m³ s^?1. Tidal choking in the narrow, northern end increases the flow resistance substantially, thereby decreasing the net through-flow.     

Water balance of Britain, 50,000 yr B.P. to the present day

Estimates made of lowland precipitation and evaporation in Britain during the last (Devensian) glaciation suggest that during the cold periods of the Devensian precipitation was probably low, between 260 and 370 mm/year, with winter precipitation between 80 and 120 mm, whereas at the thermal maximum of the Upton Warren Interstadial lowland precipitation was probably in the range 450 to 650 mm/year. Two summer precipitation regimes are identified during the cold periods, one with high values and the other with low. The high summer precipitation variant leads to moist conditions with July and August precipitation values similar to those at the present day, and global circulation models suggest that the moist regime may have existed at the time of the maximum advance of the ice sheets. On the other hand, the low summer precipitation variant leads to a dry summer with wind action creating aeolian deposits, and this variant probably existed at earlier times in the glacial period. About 6500 yr B.P., in the Atlantic period, forest conditions probably caused increased evaporation which more than compensated for the increased precipitation of the time, causing low runoff conditions. The clearance of British forests by man since 6500 yr B.P. has probably led to an absolute increase in runoff values even though precipitation values have fallen.     

A numerical simulation of residual circulation in Tampa Bay. Part I: Low-frequency temporal variations

The residual (time-average) salinity and circulation in a numerical ocean model of the Tampa Bay estuary are shown to experience significant temporal variation under realistic forcing conditions. A version of the Estuarine Coastal Ocean Model developed for Tampa Bay with 70 by 100 horizontal grid points and 11 sigma levels is examined for the years 2001–2003. Model output variables are averaged over the entire time of the simulation to generate long-term residual fields. The residual axial current is found to be dominated by the buoyancy-driven baroclinic circulation with an outflow (southwestward) at the surface and to the sides of the shipping channel, and an inflow (northeastward) usually occurring subsurface within or above the shipping channel. Averages over 30 d are used to examine variations in the residual fields. During the simulation the average surface salinity near the head of Tampa Bay varies with the freshwater inflow, from 12‰ to 33%. At the bay mouth salinity varies from 30%. to 36%.. A localized measure of the baroclinic circulation in the shipping channel indicates the residual circulation can vary strongly, attaining a magnitude triple the long-term mean value. The baroclinic circulation can be disrupted, going to near zero or even reversing, when the buoyancy-driven flow is weak and the surface winds are to the northeast. Three time periods, representing different environmental conditions, are chosen to examine these results in detail. A scaling argument indicates the relative strength of buoyancy versus wind as ΔρgH²(LC _Dω²)⁻¹, where δρ is head-to-mouth density difference across the bay,g is gravitational acceleration,H is depth,L is bay length,C _D is the surface wind drag coefficient, andw is wind speed. Tampa Bay is usually in the buoyancy dominated regime. The importance of winds in the weak-buoyancy case is demonstrated in an additional simulation without wind stress.     

前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常对中国东部春季极端降水频次的可能影响及预测价值

本文研究了前期冬季北极海冰与中国东部春季极端降水频次的联系及其可能机制,并进一步探讨了海冰异常信号对极端降水的预测价值。结果表明,前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常与中国东部春季极端降水频次经验正交分解第一模态(EOF1)之间存在密切联系。当前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常偏多时,冬季大气环流呈现出类北大西洋涛动(NAO)正位相的异常分布,并伴随经向的北大西洋三极型海温异常。该海温异常可以从冬季持续到春季,进而激发出从北大西洋到欧亚中纬度的纬向遥相关波列,在东亚地区引起气旋型环流异常。该气旋型环流异常会引起中国东部地区湿度显著增加,上升运动增强,从而为该地区极端降水的发生提供了有利的背景条件。相反,当前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常偏少时,其滞后引起的春季环流异常则不利于中国东部地区极端降水的发生。进一步的交叉检验结果表明,前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常信号对中国东部春季极端降水具有重要的预测价值。     

祁连山北坡河川径流变化的分析及趋势预测

本文结合大气环流及山区内,外气温和降水的年际变化,分析了径流变化与气候变化的关系。分析指出:山区东段河流的枯水年段与欧亚地区中高纬度纬向环流的加强有一定关系;山区对流性降水对本区河流年径流的变化有不可忽视的影响。用时间序列分析方法模拟了年径流的变化规律,并预测未来5—10年径流的变化趋势。     

Regional climate change and its effects on the runoff of Manas River,Xinjiang, China

The effects of climate change on annual runoff were analyzed on the basis of hydrologic and meteorological data for the past 50 years recorded by six meteorological stations and the Kenswatt Hydrological Station in the headstream of the Manas River watershed. The long-term trends of climate change and hydrological variations were determined in a nonparametric test, and the periodicities were determined employing the extrapolation method of periodic variance analysis. Subsequently, a periodicity-trend superposition model was used to predict future change. The results show that both the climate factors (temperature and precipitation) and runoff have increased considerably and have significant relations; the relation between temperature and runoff is the more significant. There is periodicity of 18 years in the change in annual runoff, and the primary periodicity of changes in temperature and precipitation is, respectively, 3 and 15 years. The runoff variations are affected by climate change in the headstream, but do not shift simultaneously with abrupt changes in temperature and precipitation in the headstream. There is a significant positive relationship in winter between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and runoff, while there are negative correlations annually and in summer for the runoff lagging the NAO by 1 year. The NAO has certain effects on climate change that are mainly due to atmospheric circulation in the Manas River Basin, and thus, the NAO affects the runoff.     

The nature of climate and climatic variations

The climate system consists of the atmosphere, the oceans, the cryosphere (land ice, snow, sea ice), the lithosphere, and the biomass. The behavior of the individual components of the system is governed by processes occurring over a broad range of time and space scales. The components are coupled by physical, biological, and chemical processes, and the coupled system seems capable of undergoing fluctuations on all time scales. In addition to these “internal” climatic processes, external processes (such as variability in the solar irradiance or human activities) must also be considered. Space and time scales of climatic variability are reviewed, with emphasis on the Holocene. Regional patterns of climatic variability may be associated with changes in the amplitude and longitudinal position of the long waves in the westerlies of midlatitudes, and with changes in the intensity and latitude of meridional circulation features such as the Hadley cell. Possible examples of this are mentioned. The variance spectrum of climatic time series is described and certain implications for climate modeling are suggested.     

Climate of the American tropics and subtropics in the 1960s and possible comparisons with climatic variations of the last millenium

Departures of mean annual precipitation and temperature for the decade 1961–1970 from the 1931–1960 averages are illustrated on maps of the tropical and subtropical portions of the American continents. Certain features of midlatitude climatic anomalies appear to be associated with concurrent anomalies in the tropics. There is an apparent southward shift of circulation features in this longitudinal sector of both hemispheres. A review of selected literature on latitudinal climatic shifts and atmosphere-ocean interaction suggests some similarities between the patterns of climate in the 1960s and the climate of the Little Ice Age.     

Response of an ocean general circulation model to wind and thermodynamic forcings

The stretched-coordinate ocean general circulation model has been designed to study the observed variability due to wind and thermodynamic forcings. The model domain extends from 60‡N to 60‡S and cyclically continuous in the longitudinal direction. The horizontal resolution is 5‡ x 5‡ and 9 discrete vertical levels. First a spin-up experiment has been done with ECMWF-AMIP 1979 January mean fields. The wind stress, ambient atmospheric temperature, evaporation and precipitation have been used in order to derive mechanical and thermodynamical surface forcings. Next, the experiment has been extended for another 30 years (3 cycles each of 10 year period) with varying surface boundary conditions (from January 1979 to December 1988 of ECMWF-AMIP monthly fields for each cycle) along with 120 years extended spin-up control run's results as initial conditions. The results presented here are for the last 10 years simulations. The preliminary results of this experiment show that the model is capable of simulating some of the general features and the pattern of interannual variability of the ocean.