An assessment of a nowcast/forecast system for the straits of Florida/Florida Current regime

The Florida Current （FC） largely fills the Straits of Florida and is variable on a broad spectrum of time and space scales. Some portions of the variability are due to variable forcing by tides, winds, heating/cooling, and throughflow; other portions are due to intrinsic instabilities of the FC. To predict, as well as to better understand this complex regime, a nowcast/forecast system （East Florida Shelf Information System （EFSIS）） has been implemented and assessed （http：//efsis. rsmas. miami. edu）. EFSIS is based on an implementation of the Princeton Ocean Model （POM） with mesoscale-admitting resolution on a curvilinear grid. It is forced by a mesoscale numerical weather prediction system （called Eta） run operationally by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）, eight tidal constituents from a global tidal model, and lateral boundary conditions from an operational global ocean prediction model, i.e., the Navy Coastal Ocean Model （NCOM）. Real-time observations of coastal sea level, coastal sea surface temperature, coastal HF radar-derived surface current maps, and FC volume transport are used to verify and validate EFSIS. EFSIS is part of an evolving strategy for real-time predictive coastal ocean modeling methodology, and for fostering the understanding of the variability of the regime on several time and space scales. Here, some of the verification and validation results are provided, as well as diagnostic analyses of dynamical processes. The central point is that an example is provided of a ＇scientific revolution＇ in progress that combines real-time observations and numerical circulation models to yield a credible sequence of synoptic views of coastal ocean circulation for the first time.     

武汉区域气象中心数值预报业务并行计算机系统

对武汉区域气象中心并行计算机系统进行了详细地介绍，分析了并行计算机体系结构、网络和存储系统特点；给出了在并行计算机SP上实现数值预报业务并行化的部分结果；对数值预报模式在串、并行编程环境下的结果进行了分析比较。     

灰色预测模型在高层建筑物沉降预测中的应用研究

详细讨论了一阶一元灰色预测模型GM(1，1)的基本内容及建模过程，并成功地将GM(1，1)模型应用于高层建筑物沉降监测的预测预报，相应地编写了基于MATLAB的灰色系统沉降预测程序，便于实际应用。实践证明，灰色预测模型GM(1，1)在沉降预测中具有较高的应用价值。     

关于规划环评指标体系建设的建议

提出了进行规划环评的指标体系：即规划内容、规划选址、规划布局、规划配套的环保和公共设施、环境容量、预测评价、环保措施等7个指标，并对规划环评的意义、内容、组织实施等方面进行了介绍，以实例论述了气象部门在进行规划环评时的优势所在。     

利用卡尔曼滤波方法作1～5天中期温度预报

卡尔曼滤波是一种现代动态系统分析技术，在气象上应用时，它是通过利用前一时刻预报误差的反馈信息来及时修正预报方程中的参数，以提高下一时刻的预报精度，介绍了利用卡尔曼滤波制温度预报的一种因子选取方法和滤波过程中衩值的确定，递推系数修正的处理办法。     

复杂地形下冰雹预报的数值试验研究

充分考虑贵州低纬、高原山区特色,首先模拟由于下垫面的热力和动力不均匀造成的强对流云的初始扰动.在此初始扰动的基础上,用完全弹性三维冰雹云数值模式,模拟雹云的发生发展过程,对冰雹进行数值预报研究.通过现场试验和个例分析,发现模式能反映雹云的发生、发展等变化规律,并能对冰雹天气作预报,预报概括率为81%.     

Annual precipitation gray forecast in disaster year of Chedaren debris flow

The Chedaren ravine belongs to high-prone areas of debris flow in Jilin Province,which threaten the local people's life and security seriously. The authors used the residual correction theory to amend the GM (1, 1) model and forecast annual precipitation in disaster year of the Chedaren ravine; it provides scientific foundation for early warning of debris flow disaster in the rainy season based on weather forecast. The prediction results show that annual precipitation is 724.7 mm in 2009; the region will probably occur large-scale debris flow during the rainy season.     

Annual precipitation gray forecast in disaster year of Chedaren debris flow

The Chedaren ravine belongs to high-prone areas of debris flow in Jilin Province, which threaten the local people＇ s life and security seriously. The authors used the residual correction theory to amend the GM （ 1, 1 ） model and forecast annual precipitation in disaster year of the Chedaren ravine ; it provides scientific foundation for early warning of debris flow disaster in the rainy season based on weather forecast. The prediction resuits show that annual precipitation is 724.7 mm in 2009 ; the region will probably occur large-scale debris flow during the rainy season.     

STUDY ON THE FORECAST METHOD FOR THE IMPACT OF CROSSWAY ON TIDAL CURRENT FIELD IN SEA AREA

This paper's method simulates the tidal current field near piles to derive and predict the scale oftheir impacts on the tidal current field, and presents the empirically obtained damp coefficient needed inpedicting the current field. The substituted plans used in the prediction are studied using Qingdao.Crossway as an example.     

南方锋面降水的落区和落量的预测

天气图、卫星云图和V-3θ图结合分析不仅能清晰反映锋面天气过程,而且能够提高降水落点、降水强度及降水结束时间的预测效果.中尺度云团所表征的次涡旋和垂直顺滚流并存的区域为强降水区域.     

Development of an oil spill forecast system for offshore China

An oil spill forecast system for of fshore China was developed based on Visual C++. The oil spill forecast system includes an ocean environmental forecast model and an oil spill model. The ocean environmental forecast model was designed to include timesaving methods, and comprised a parametrical wind wave forecast model and a sea surface current forecast model. The oil spill model was based on the "particle method" and fulfi lls the prediction of oil particle behavior by considering the drifting, evaporation and emulsifi cation processes. A specifi c database was embedded into the oil spill forecast system, which contained fundamental information, such as the properties of oil, reserve of emergency equipment and distribution of marine petroleum platform. The oil spill forecast system was successfully applied as part of an oil spill emergency exercise, and provides an operational service in the Research and Development Center for Off shore Oil Safety and Environmental Technology.     

海南琼海暴雨频次的诊断及预测研究

利用MHAT小波变换分析和灰色拓扑预测方法对海南琼海1953—2007年55年的暴雨频次的变化特征进行分析,结果表明,暴雨频次分别存在2a、6a、8a的准周期变化,8a准周期在20世纪70年代初期和80年代初期的信号最强,但1990年代后,暴雨频次较降水量出现了更多的小尺度周期波动扰动,表明极端降水事件有频繁出现的趋势。暴雨频次的季节变化主要体现在夏秋两季的暴雨多发季节,夏季主要存在2a、6a、12—13a、18a左右的准周期,秋季主要存在2—3a、8—9a、12a、17—18a左右的准周期,并且在各个季节表现出多时间尺度交替的复杂结构变化的非周期性特征,能在一定程度上解释暴雨频次较为异常的状况。琼海大暴雨和特大暴雨主要发生在秋季原因,可能与西行热带气旋和南下弱冷空气共同影响海南岛,同时配合偏东回流的环流背景有很大关系。文中基于小波分析和灰色预测方法的研究结果,提供了琼海地区暴雨预报和防灾减灾的一定科学依据。     

Development and application of oil-spill risk assessment model for offshore pipeline

To the potential oil-spill risk caused by offshore pipeline more attention has been paid after the Dalian oil spill incident from oil-pipeline explosion. Since then an issue about how to prevent and control the sudden oil-spill from the offshore pipeline has been raised. In this paper, we proposed an optimized model to analyze the main causes （probability） of spill and the consequence with the fuzzy comprehensive assessment model. Considering the complicated assessment process for oil-spill, the assessment factor system involving the spill probability and consequence was established based on the operative manual and statistic leakage/damage data of offshore pipeline in order to estimate the integrated spill risk score automatically. The evaluated factors of spill probability could be grouped into five aspects：corrosion, fatigue, national damage, third party, and operational fault;the consequence evaluated factors of spill included hazard of oil and impact-controlling capability. With some modifications based on experts’ opinions, each of the evaluated factors in our work was developed with a relative weight and evaluation criterion. A test example for an offshore pipe-line in the Bohai waters was described to show how the model can be used for an actual case in more detail. By using the oil-spill risk assessment model, it is easy to determine the risk level associated with the ongoing activity and management level and hence to take the risk mitigation action immediately.     

污水处理厂规模与技术相对有效评估研究

首先使用数据包络分析方法建立一个污水处理厂的效率评价模型，然后对天津、上海、海口等7个污水处理的实况进行测评分析。     

Numerical modeling of hydrodynamic changes due to coastal reclamation projects in Xiamen Bay, China

Xiamen Bay in South China has experienced extensive coastal exploitation since the 1950s,resulting in some severe environmental problems.Local authorities now have completed or are implementing many environmental restoration projects.Evaluating the cumulative impact of exploitation and restoration activities on the environment is a complicated multi-disciplinary problem.However,hydrodynamic changes in the bay caused by such coastal projects can be characterized directly and definitively through numerical modeling.This paper assesses the cumulative effect of coastal projects on the hydrodynamic setting using a high-resolution numerical modeling method that makes use of tidal current speeds and the tidal prism as two hydrodynamic indices.Changes in tidal velocity and the characteristics of the tidal prism show that hydrodynamic conditions have declined from 1938 to 2007 in the full-tide area.The tidal current speed and tidal prism have decreased by 40% in the western part of the bay and 20% in the eastern part of the bay.Because of the linear relationship between tidal prism and area,the degraded hydrodynamic conditions are anticipated to be restored to 1972 levels following the completion of current and proposed restoration projects,i.e.33% and 15% decrease in the hydrodynamic conditions of 1938 for the western and eastern parts of the bay,respectively.The results indicate that hydrodynamic conditions can be restored to some extent with the implementation of a sustainable coastal development plan,although a full reversal of conditions is not possible.To fully assess the environmental changes in a region,more indices,e.g.,water quality and ecosystem parameters,should be considered in future evaluations.     

湛江水产学院工资发放系统软件的方法和技巧

本文叙述用APPLEII微机在中文状态下对700多人的单位进行工资发放的方法和軟件的编程技巧。     

模糊信息分配法及其在水质评价中的应用

将模糊信息分配方法应用到水质评价中。该方法是从原始数据信息中直接构造系统模型 ,尽可能保留原始数据结构的完整性。它与模糊一、二级近似推论构成一套完整的评价方法。用该方法对西安市地面水水质进行评价 ,结果表明评价结果能较准确地反映水质的实际情况 ,具有一定的应用价值。同时提出一种新的水质分级方法     

AN ASSESSMENT FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPING CAPABILITY OF INTEGRATED AGRICULTURAL REGIONALIZATION IN CHINA

Based on the provincial units evaluation,this paper makes an assessment for sustainable developing capability of the integrated agricultural regionalization in China.At first ,an index system of agricultural sustainable development in China is built up,which includes 5 supporting subsystems of agricultural resources,agricultural develop-ment ,environment and ecosystem,rural society,sciences-esucation and management.We selected 95 factors on provin-cial level as basic indexes.Second,a relative assets/debt assessing method is used to gain relative net assets values (relative superiority) of every provincial unit,which are as supporting data for assessment.We also overlaid the Administra-tive Divisions Map of China and the Map of Integrated Agricultural Regionalization of China by Geography Information Sys-tem(GIS) to gain the area units of assessment.Third,according to the relative coherence principle of regionalization,we transform administration units to natural units through homogenizing all provincial relative net assets values in every agricultural assessing unit.After making order and grade,we complete the sustainable developing capability assessment to integrated agricultural regionalization in China.The assessing outcome shows that the total sustainable agricultural devdelop-ing capability of China is not high.Only about 1/3 in number or in area has reached the level of agricultural sustainable development.The relative net assets values exists a reducing trend from East China to West China.It needs a long period and great efforts to realize sustainable agricultural development over all China.Finally,there is a discussion to the study method.     

THE LANDSCAPE ECOLOGICAL ，ASSESSMENT AND PLANNING IN THE CONTOL WATERSHED BY RESERVOIR OF ERLKONG MOUNTAIN

Based on the theories of landscape ecology,landscape eco-environment in the coutrol watershed by reser-voir of Erlong Mountain in Heilogjiang Province was analyzed and assessed by using GIS technique and statistical model of Principal Component Analysis and Spatial Cluster Analysis.It is found that 100.08km^2(36%) of the total area is in the state of kilter,85.73km^2(31%) of the total area is in the state of general,and 47.26km^2(17%) and 15.48km^2(16%) is in the relatively poor state and ideal state.According to landscape ecological structure,there are three land-scape function areas being planned and designed.1) Agricultural landscape function area:its developmental direction is tour agriculture and high-benefit agriculture.2)Eco-environment protected function area:the direction of development and utilization of this region is to develop vigorously forest for soil and water conservation ,and try to increase the rate of vegetation cover.3)Forest landscape function area:rational cut and utilization of forest resources,space optimization disposal of category of forest ,foster of forest and protection of wildwood will become the main development directions for this region.This study trys to provide scientific foundation for ecological restoration of the whole valley and its sustain-able development.