Desert margins near the Chinese Loess Plateau during the mid-Holocene and at the Last Glacial Maximum: a model–data intercomparison

Expansion and contraction of desert margins around the globe have been inferred from a variety of proxy data and have since been linked, particularly in northern China and in the sub-Sahel, to changes in freshwater flux, vegetation cover, sea surface temperatures and, perhaps most importantly, monsoon circulations. We present a direct comparison of results from numerical general circulation model experiments for the mid-Holocene and for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) with the climatic conditions that have been inferred from loess–paleosol sequences taken from the Chinese Loess Plateau.During the mid-Holocene in northern China, the northwestward migration of the southeast desert margin that has been suggested by grain size analysis is also expressed in the model results. There is a statistically significant wetting of the Plateau region, and increased soil moisture is a consequence of an enhanced summer monsoon whose latent heat release deepens the cyclonic Tibetan low and brings increased low-level convergence and precipitation to the area. North of the desert region, this circulation dries the soil through enhanced atmospheric subsidence, although the northern margin of the desert does not migrate significantly.Expansion of the desert margin toward the southeast at the LGM is small, but there is a statistically significant drying of the Plateau. The local hydrological cycle is reduced, and there is an increase in large-scale atmospheric subsidence over the region that is caused by the presence of the Fennoscandian ice sheet upwind. Model results therefore suggest that, in addition to local micro- and mesoclimatic conditions, regional effects, such as monsoon circulations and distal orography, are also important factors in determining the location of desert margins.     

The effects of reduced land fraction and solar forcing on the general circulation: results from the NCAR CCM

Land fraction and the solar energy at the top of the atmosphere (solar constant) may have been significantly lower early in Earth's history. It is likely that both of these factors played some important role in the climate of the early earth. The climate changes associated with a global ocean(i.e. no continents) and reduced solar constant are examined with a general circulation model and compared with the present-day climate simulation. The general circulation model used in the study is the NCAR CCM with a swamp ocean surface. First, all land points are removed in the model and then the solar constant is reduced by 10% for this global ocean case.Results indicate that a 4 K increase in air temperature occurs with global ocean simulation compared to the control. When solar constant is reduced by 10% under global ocean conditions a 23 K decrease in air temperature is noted. The global ocean warms much of the troposphere and stratosphere, while a reduction in the solar constant cools the troposphere and stratosphere. The largest cooling occurs near the surface with the lower solar constant.Global mean values of evaporation, water vapor amounts, absorbed solar radiation and the downward longwave radiation are increased under global ocean conditions, while all are reduced when the solar constant is lowered. The global ocean simulation produces sea ice only in the highest latitudes. A frozen planet does not occur when the solar constant is reduced—rather, the ice line settles near 30° of latitude. It is near this latitude that transient eddies transport large amounts of sensible heat across the ice line acting as a negative feedback under lower solar constant conditions keeping sea ice from migrating to even lower latitudes.Clouds, under lower solar forcing, also act as a negative feedback because they are reduced in higher latitudes with colder atmospheric temperatures allowing additional solar radiation to reach the surface. The overall effect of clouds in the global ocean is to act as a positive feedback because they are slightly reduced thereby allowing additional solar radiation to reach the surface and increase the warming caused by the removal of land. The relevance of the results to the “Faint-Young Sun Paradox” indicates that reduced land fraction and solar forcing affect dynamics, heat transport, and clouds. Therefore the associated feedbacks should be taken into account in order to understand their roles in resolving the “Faint-Young Sun Paradox”.     

LGM lake records from China and an analysis of climate dynamics using a modelling approach

Lake-geological studies in China have reported that there were much higher lake levels and much fresher water than today at the last glacial maximum (LGM) in western China. A compilation of lake data in this study showed LGM conditions much drier than today in eastern China but somewhat wetter in western China. These E–W differential patterns of climate conditions were completely different from the modern dry-wet conditions with a N–S differential distribution. In this study palaeoclimate simulations by an AGCM coupled with land surface process model were used to explore the possible mechanisms of LGM climate in China. The results confirmed that the dry conditions in eastern China resulted from less summer precipitation due to the Pacific Subtropical High occupying eastern China and the decline in the summer monsoon. The wet conditions in western China were produced by a decrease in evaporation due to a low temperature on land surface at the LGM and increase in precipitation. Two experiments of the palaeoclimate simulations with different land surface of modern and palaeo-vegetations have been designed to test the discrepancies of simulated LGM climate with in precipitation and P–E fields. The results suggested that the feedback from the Asian land surface within the climate system would amplify and modify external forcing, leading to marked climate changes in China.     

Examining the sensitivity of Earth's climate to the removal of ozone, landmasses and enhanced ocean heat transport in the GENESIS global climate model

This paper examines the cloud radiative forcing and its impacts on the surface climate for global climate model simulations that use reduced ozone concentrations and land fractions as boundary conditions. In one simulation using present-day land continents, ozone concentrations are reduced to zero and compared to the present-day climate simulation. In the second set of simulations under global ocean conditions, the implied poleward transport of heat by the ocean is varied. The removal of ozone causes an increase in longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and the surface. The increase in longwave forcing melts sea-ice and snow at high latitudes leading 10–14°C warmer temperatures and globally a 2°C increase. The global ocean simulations lead to higher cloud fractions than present-day simulation. Without poleward transport of heat by the ocean, surface temperatures cool as a result of higher cloud fractions. Increasing the ocean heat transport by a factor of 3.33 brings about ice-free conditions. An 11°C difference in globally averaged surface air temperatures is found between the enhanced and zero poleward oceanic heat transport simulations. The longwave cloud radiative forcing from high cloud fractions enhance the surface warming in the polar regions during the winter season. Conversely, during the summer season, a high cloud fraction increases the shortwave cloud radiative forcing producing only moderately warm temperatures in the polar regions. High cloud fractions in polar regions during warm periods throughout geologic times may help to explain the reduced equator to pole temperature gradient.     

Modeling Jupiter's cloud bands and decks: 1. Jet scale meridional circulations

We have investigated the formation of jet scale meridional circulation cells on Jupiter in response to radiative and zonal momentum forcing. In the framework of semi-geostrophic theory, the meridional streamfunction is described by an elliptic equation with a source term dependent on the sum of the latitudinal derivative of the radiative forcing and the vertical derivative of the zonal momentum forcing. Using this equation with analytic terms similar to the assumed forcing on Jupiter, we obtained two set of atmospheric circulations cells, a stratospheric and a tropospheric one. A possible shift in the overturning circulation of the high and deep atmosphere can be induced by breaking the latitudinal alignment of radiative heating with the enforced belt and zones. A series of numerical simulations was conducted with the Jovian GCM OPUS, which was initiated with observational data obtained from the Cassini CIRS temperature cross-section and a corresponding geostrophic zonal wind field. Newtonian forcing of potential temperature as well as zonal momentum was applied respectively towards latitudinally and vertically uniform equilibrium fields. In accordance with the analytic illustrations two rows of jet scale circulation cells were created. The stratospheric circulation showed the distribution of upwelling over zones and downwelling over belts, consistent with cloud observations. The tropospheric cells featured a partial reversal of the downward vertical velocity over the belts and a considerable reduction of the upward movement over the zones in the domain, consistent with recent detections of high water clouds and lightning in belts. We also used the modeled new forcing fields as source terms for the semi-geostrophic Poisson equation to attribute the origin of the modeled secondary circulation. In this analysis, the stratospheric circulation cells observed in the model are primarily generated in response to radiative forcing, while momentum forcing induces the shifted configurations in the deep atmosphere.     

The glacial–interglacial paradox: the relation between the global means of sea level and sea surface temperature

Sea level variability during the Quarternary is simulated using a stochastic climate model, and a sensitivity relation for the change in net oceanic evaporation due to a change in sea surface temperature. In the application of this relation, it is assumed that the greater part of the change in net oceanic evaporation causes changes in the land ice storage, rather than being directly returned to the ocean by rivers. The analysis suggests that the observed sea level changes can be interpreted as due to the transfer of heat to the deep ocean from the surface mixed layer, arising from random radiation perturbations of the same variance as would give rise to the interannual variability of the global temperature series. The paradox is that glacial conditions (increase in ice storage) are favoured by positive (temperate) sea surface temperature anomalies, and interglacial conditions (decrease in ice storage) by negative (temperate) sea surface temperature anomalies. The evolution of both these regimes, which are inherently unstable, appears to be controlled by the deep water formation process, while albedo feedback is of minor importance. Fluvial feedback, (in which as the ice storage increases the fluvial inflow decreases), however, is found to be an important process, and a small sensitivity of river inflow to storage is consistent with forcing by random variability or by astronomical forcing. A simple analytical model incorporating the key processes of oceanic evaporation and fluvial feedback is presented. The analysis points to the importance of an accurate river model for climate system modelling.     

Simulations of the impact of orbital forcing and ocean on the Asian summer monsoon during the Holocene

The importance of orbital forcing and ocean impact on the Asian summer monsoon in the Holocene is investigated by comparing simulations with a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (FOAM) and with the atmospheric component of this model (FSSTAM) forced with prescribed modern sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The results show: (1) the ocean amplifies the orbitally-induced increase in African monsoon precipitation, makes somewhat increase in southern India and damps the increase over the southeastern China. (2) The ocean could change the spatial distribution and local intensity of the orbitally-induced latitudinal atmospheric oscillation over the southeastern China and the subtropical western Pacific Ocean. (3) The orbital forcing mostly enhances the Asian summer precipitation in the FOAM and FSSTAM simulations. However, the ocean reduces the orbitally-induced summer precipitation and postpones the time of summer monsoon onset over the Asian monsoon region. (4) The orbital forcing considerably enhances the intensity of upper divergence, which is amplified by ocean further, over the eastern hemisphere. But the divergence is weaker in the FOAM simulations than in the FSSTAM simulations when the orbital forcing is fixed. (5) The orbital forcing can enhance the amplitude of precipitation variability over the subtropical Africa, the southeastern China and northwestern China, inversely, reduce it over central India and North China in the FOAM and FSSTAM simulations. The ocean obviously reduces the amplitude of precipitation variability over most of the Asian monsoon regions in the fixed orbital forcing simulations. (6) The areas characterized by increased summer precipitation in the long-term mean are mostly characterized by increased amplitude of short-term variability, whereas regions characterized by decreased precipitation are primarily characterized by decreased amplitude of short-term variability. However, the influences of orbital forcing or dynamical ocean on regional climate depend on the model.     

Effect of altered Arctic sea ice and Greenland ice sheet cover on the climate of the GENESIS general circulation model

Previous studies have examined the effect of reduced Arctic sea ice cover on the circulation of climate models. Generally, the response is restricted to high northern latitudes. Here we examine a variant on those simulations, specifying both reduced Arctic sea ice cover and no Greenland ice sheet. The GENESIS general circulation model is used in these experiments. As in earlier studies, we find the effect limited primarily to the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere, being greater in winter than in summer. New results reported herein involve: (1) in winter reduced Arctic ice cover has a significantly greater effect than reduced Greenland ice cover; (2) reduced ice cover had little effect on location of the winter freezing line over North America and Eurasia; (3) removal of ice caused a 30–50% increase in precipitation in high northern latitudes; however there were no significant effects elsewhere. This result does not support the hypothesis that past changes in Arctic ice cover were responsible for significant changes in area of tropical rainforests; (4) there is a peculiar surface pressure anomaly that extends into the high latitudes of the southern hemisphere. This anomaly may be a spurious artifact of the effect of the removed Greenland ice sheet on the spherical harmonic expansion terms in the model. These sensitivity experiments should serve as a useful frame of reference for future Pliocene simulations with a more complete set of altered boundary conditions.     

Geomorphic change in high mountains: a western Himalayan perspective

Globally significant interactions between climate, surface processes, and tectonics have recently been proposed to explain climate change and mountain building. Assessing climate-driven erosion processes and geomorphic change in high-mountain environments, however, is notoriously difficult. In the western Himalaya, the coupling of climate, surface processes, and tectonics results in complex topography that frequently records the polygenetic nature of topographic evolution over the last 100 ka. Depending upon the erosional history of a particular landscape, temporal overprinting of geomorphic events can produce unique topographic properties which define the spatial complexity of the topography. Field work coupled with analysis of the topography using digital elevation models (DEMs) enable low- and high-frequency spatial patterns and scale-dependent properties of the topography to be detected and associated with geomorphic events caused by climate and tectonic forcing. We conducted spatial analysis of the topography at Nanga Parbat in northern Pakistan to demonstrate the utility of geomorphometry and to characterize dramatic geomorphic change over the past 100 ka. Results indicate rapid river incision, extensive glaciation, and variable denudation rates by mass movement, glaciation, and catastrophic flood flushing. Furthermore, topographic and chronologic evidence indicate that glaciation is strongly controlled by the southwestern monsoon, and that modern fluvial systems are still responding to tectonic forcing and deglaciation. Scale-dependent analysis of the topography revealed that different erosion processes uniquely alter the spatial complexity of the topography, such that the greatest mesoscale relief appears to be caused by glaciation. Collectively, our results indicate that topographic development in the western Himalaya is inherently polygenetic in nature, with glaciation, fluvial and slope processes all playing important roles at different times, and that they can do so sequentially on the same portion of the landscape. Given the rapidity of major changes in climate and glaciation over the last 100 ka, the landscape cannot be in steady-state.     

Simulations of water resource environmental changes in China during the last 20 000 years by a regional climate model

We utilize a regional climate model with detailed land surface processes (RegCM2) to simulate East Asian monsoon climates at 0 ka, 6 ka and 21 ka BP, and evaluate the changes in hydrology process, including vapor transportation, precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff in the eastern and western China during these periods. Results indicate that the Tibetan Plateau climate presents a wet–cold status during the LGM while it exhibits a wet–warm climate at 6 ka BP. The LGM wetter climate over the Tibetan Plateau mainly results from the increased vapor inflow through its south boundary, while the increase in the vapor import over the Tibetan Plateau at 6 ka BP mostly sources from its west boundary. The increase in the LGM runoff over the Tibetan Plateau is mainly caused by the decrease in evapotranspiration, while the increase in runoff at the 6 ka BP mainly by the enhanced precipitation. Eastern China (including southern China) presents a dry status during the LGM, which precipitation and runoff decreases significantly due largely to weakened Asian summer monsoon that results in the decreased vapor inflow through the south boundary of eastern China. The variation pattern in the hydrological cycle in eastern China is contrary to that in western China during the LGM. The increase in precipitation and runoff at 6 ka BP in eastern China is tightly related to the strong Asian summer monsoon that leads to increased vapor import through the south boundary. Long term decrease trend in precipitation and runoff in northern China since the last 20 000 years may be attributed to the steady increase in vapor export through the east boundary as a result of the changes of East Asian monsoon and the adjustments of local atmospheric circulations in this area.     

The thermal structure and the location of the snow line in the protosolar nebula: Axisymmetric models with full 3-D radiative transfer

The precise location of the water ice condensation front (‘snow line’) in the protosolar nebula has been a debate for a long time. Its importance stems from the expected substantial jump in the abundance of solids beyond the snow line, which is conducive to planet formation, and from the higher ‘stickiness’ in collisions of ice-coated dust grains, which may help the process of coagulation of dust and the formation of planetesimals. In an optically thin nebula, the location of the snow line is easily calculated to be around 3 AU, subject to brightness variations of the young Sun. However, in its first 5-10 myr, the solar nebula was optically thick, implying a smaller snowline radius due to shielding from direct sunlight, but also a larger radius because of viscous heating. Several models have attempted to treat these opposing effects. However, until recently treatments beyond an approximate 1 + 1D radiative transfer were unfeasible. We revisit the problem with a fully self-consistent 3D treatment in an axisymmetric disk model, including a density-dependent treatment of the dust and ice sublimation. We find that the location of the snow line is very sensitive to the opacities of the dust grains and the mass accretion rate of the disk. We show that previous approximate treatments are quite efficient at determining the location of the snow line if the energy budget is locally dominated by viscous accretion. Using this result we derive an analytic estimate of the location of the snow line that compares very well with results from this and previous studies. Using solar abundances of the elements we compute the abundance of dust and ice and find that the expected jump in solid surface density at the snow line is smaller than previously assumed. We further show that in the inner few AU the refractory species are also partly evaporated, leading to a significantly smaller solid state surface density in the regions where the rocky planets were formed.     

Simulations of the impacts of dynamic vegetation on interannual and interdecadal variability of Asian summer monsoon with modern and mid-Holocene orbital forcings

The impacts of dynamic vegetation on interannual and interdecadal variability of Asian summer monsoon in modern (0 kyr) and mid-Holocene (6 kyr) climates are investigated by contrasting simulations with and without dynamic vegetation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model.According to a dynamic index of South Asian summer monsoon, it has been found that the strengths of interannual and interdecadal westerly wind tend not to be affected by the dynamic vegetation over South Asia in the lower troposphere for 0 kyr and 6 kyr. However, based on a dynamic index of western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon, the strengths of tropical westerly wind and south–north cross-equatorial transport are weakened over the tropical western Pacific in the lower troposphere for 0 kyr and 6 kyr. It suggests the impact of dynamic vegetation is more obvious for the WNP monsoon than for the South Asian monsoon. Also, it implies the impact of dynamic vegetation on the interannual and interdecadal circulations is distinctly regional.Singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis shows that the impact of dynamic vegetation can remodel the leading correlation mode (SVD1) between precipitation and surface temperature. All of the interannual and interdecadal precipitation patterns with and without the impact of dynamic vegetation are associated with positive anomalies over India and southeastern China. However, the impact of dynamic vegetation tends to enhance (keep) the positive interannual temperature anomalies of SVD1 over the midlatitudinal Eurasia (WNP) for 0 kyr, but to reduce the anomalies over the midlatitudinal Eurasia and WNP for 6 kyr. Furthermore, the La Niña-like sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies always dominate the tropics for 0 kyr and 6 kyr. It suggests La Niña-like SST anomalies are the important mechanism to induce the above-mentioned precipitation pattern no matter whether for 0 kyr or for 6 kyr. For the interdecadal surface temperature pattern of SVD1, the impact of dynamic vegetation tends to enhance (reduce) positive anomalies over the midlatitudinal Eurasia (WNP) for 0 kyr, but to reduce (keep) positive anomalies over the midlatitudinal Eurasia (WNP) for 6 kyr. Also, all of the above implies the impact of dynamic vegetation is a mechanism to induce the long-term change of leading interannual and interdecadal surface temperature pattern over the midlatitudinal Eurasia and/or WNP.     

Topographic control on the dynamics of the Svalbard-Barents Sea ice sheet

The land surface of what is now the Barents Sea region may have been eroded to a sub-aerial platform prior to the Quaternary, due to both tectonic uplift-induced and sea-level lowering-induced erosion processes. The Barents Sea was then further eroded into its present form by the subsequent action of ice sheets. Two bedrock configurations, representing the pre-Quaternary sub-aerial Barents Shelf topography and the largely submarine morphology of the present day, were used as input to a glaciological ice sheet model so that the dynamic evolution of the maximum-sized ice sheets, caused solely by a change in bedrock elevation, could be identified. The ice-sheet model was run under constant glacial environmental conditions, until mass balance stability was reached, over both bedrock configurations. The simple parabolic ice sheet surface, which formed on a flat sub-aerial bedrock platform, was found to be significantly different in dynamic character compared with an ice sheet developed on the present submarine bedrock topography. In this latter situation, the central ice dome is drained by ice streams in Bjørnøyrenna, Storfjordrenna and smaller outlet glaciers in the north of the ice sheet.     

Thoughts on monitoring the effects of climate change on the surface elevation of the Greenland ice sheet

The effect of mass balance variations on changes in surface elevation of the Greenland ice sheet is examined in connection with the rise in sea level that will be caused by increased melting. Changes in surface elevation of several metres (of either sign) can occur in the ablation area of the ice sheet over a period of a few years as a result of random ablation forcing without being evidence of change in mean climate. Similar, but smaller, changes can occur in the accumulation area due to accumulation forcing. The ablation area of the ice sheet probably thickened from the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s as a result of lower ablation in that period but thinned again in the late 1980s as a result of higher ablation then. There is no evidence of any present trend of increased melting. Future climate warming will involve an accelerated thinning of the ablation area that could be detected in 1–2 decades against the background of natural fluctuations in surface elevation.     

Testing the effects of ocean heat transport on climate

An atmospheric general circulation model is run with boundary conditions representing different amounts of equator-to-pole oceanic heat transport. Oceanic heat transport underneath sea ice is held fixed, minimizing positive feedbacks due to sea ice and thereby providing a lower bound on the effects of oceanic heat transport on climate. When oceanic heat transport is reduced, some compensating increases in atmospheric heat transport occur, but tropical surface temperatures increase and atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns undergo significant changes. We conclude that the ability of the oceans to generate past and future climatic changes through transport of heat is substantial, even though it is limited by a tendency of the atmosphere to partly compensate for changes in oceanic heat transport.     

Episodes of reef growth at Lord Howe Island, the southernmost reef in the southwest Pacific

Lord Howe Island lies at the present latitudinal limit to reef growth in the Pacific and preserves evidence of episodes of reef development over the Late Quaternary. A modern fringing reef flanks the western shore of Lord Howe Island, enclosing a Holocene lagoon, and Late Quaternary eolianites veneer the island. Coral-bearing beach and shallow-water calcarenites record a sea level around 2–3 m above present during the Last Interglacial. No reefs or subaerial carbonate deposits occur on, or around, Balls Pyramid, 25 km to the south. The results of chronostratigraphic studies of the modern Lord Howe Island reef and lagoon indicate prolific coral production during the mid-Holocene, but less extensive coral cover during the late Holocene. Whereas the prolific mid-Holocene reefs might appear to reflect warmer sea-surface temperatures, the pattern of dates and reef growth history are similar to those throughout the Great Barrier Reef and across much of the Indo-Pacific and are more likely correlated with availability of suitable substrate. Little direct evidence of a Last Interglacial reef is now preserved, and the only evidence for older periods of reef establishment comes from clasts of coral in a well-cemented limestone unit below a coral that has been dated to the Last Interglacial age in a core at the jetty. However, a massive reef structure occurs near the centre of the wide shelf around Lord Howe Island, veneered with Holocene coralline algae. Its base is 40–50 m deep and it rises to water depths of less than 30 m. This fossil reef is several times more extensive than either Holocene or Last Interglacial reefs appear to have been. Holocene give-up reef growth is inferred during the postglacial transgression, but an alternative interpretation is that this is a much older landform, indicating reefs that were much more extensive than modern reefs at this marginal site.     

Generation of liquid water on Mars through the melting of a dusty snowpack

The possibility that snowmelt could have provided liquid water for valley network formation early in the history of Mars is investigated using an optical-thermal model developed for dusty snowpacks at temperate latitudes. The heating of the postulated snow is assumed to be driven primarily by the absorption of solar radiation during clear sky conditions. Radiative heating rates are predicted as a function of depth and shown to be sensitive to the dust concentration and the size of the ice grains while the thermal conductivity is controlled by temperature, atmospheric pressure, and bulk density. Rates of metamorphism indicate that fresh fine-grained snow on Mars would evolve into moderately coarse snow during a single summer season. Results from global climate models are used to constrain the mean-annual surface temperatures for snow and the atmospheric exchange terms in the surface energy balance. Mean-annual temperatures within Martian snowpacks fail to reach the melting point for all atmospheric pressures below 1000 mbar despite a predicted temperature enhancement beneath the surface of the snowpacks. When seasonal and diurnal variations in the incident solar flux are included in the model, melting occurs at midday during the summer for a wide range of snow types and atmospheric pressures if the dust levels in the snow exceed 100 ppmw (parts per million by weight). The optimum dust concentration appears to be about 1000 ppmw. With this dust load, melting can occur in the upper few centimeters of a dense coarse-grained snow at atmospheric pressures as low as 7 mbar. Snowpack thickness and the thermal conductivity of the underlying substrate determine whether the generated snow-melt can penetrate to the snowpack base, survive basal ice formation, and subsequently become available for runoff. Under favorable conditions, liquid water becomes available for runoff at atmospheric pressures as low as 30 to 100 mbar if the substrate is composed of regolith, as is expected in the ancient cratered terrain of Mars.     

Flood/drought change of last millennium in the Yangtze Delta and its possible connections with Tibetan climatic changes

Flood/drought series during the past 1000 yrs in the Yangtze Delta, China, was reconstructed based on historical documents and local chronologies. Continuous wavelet transform was applied to detect the periodicity and variability of the flood/drought series. Research results indicate that: (1) Larger fluctuations of climatic changes in the Tibetan Plateau result in higher wavelet variance of flood/drought in the Yangtze Delta, for example, during 1400–1700, the proxy indicators indicate that the annual temperature in Tibet experienced larger variability and that this time interval exactly corresponds to the time when the higher and significant wavelet variance occurred; (2) Periods featured by colder temperature in the Tibetan Plateau usually correspond to periods characterized by higher wetness with higher probability of flood events; (3) Variability of heating features of the Tibetan Plateau exerted great influences on intensity and onset of Indian monsoon and south Asian summer monsoon, and these atmospheric activities are in direct connection with precipitation in Eastern China. Current global warming may alter the snow mass of Tibetan Plateau and then alters the heating features of Tibetan Plateau, which may in turn impact flood/drought conditions in the Yangtze Delta.     

Simulation of the Eurasian ice sheet dynamics during the last glaciation

The Eurasian Weichselian glaciation is studied with the SICOPOLIS ice-sheet model and UKMO PMIP climate anomaly forcings. A set of sensitivity tests are completed, including runs in cold-ice mode, different positive-degree-day (PDD) factors and modified climatic data-sets. The model set-up with present-day climatology modified by a glacial index brings forth an areally correct Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) extent in the western areas, but the ice-sheet volume is too small compared to reconstructions from rebound rates. Applying modified climate data results in similar extent as indicated by the Quaternary Environment of the Eurasian North (QUEEN) Late Weichselian ice-sheet reconstruction. The simulation results display freshwater fluxes from melting and calving in phase with Heinrich events H3 at 27, H2 at 22, and H1 at 14 ka ago. These peaks correspond to fast flow areas, with main activity at 27 and 22 ka ago in the Nordic Channel area and later in the Bear Island and Storfjorden region. The activity of these areas seems to be shifting from south to north from LGM to the Holocene. The freshwater pulse at 19–18.5 ka could correspond to Dansgaard–Oeschger oscillation, as well as ice volume flux peaks around 18–17 ka ago on the western margin of the ice sheet.     

Temporary liquid water in upper snow/ice sub-surfaces on Mars?

It is investigated whether conditions for melting can be temporarily created in the upper sub-surface parts of snow/ice-packs on Mars at subzero surface temperatures by means of the solid-state greenhouse effect, as occurs in snow- and ice-covered regions on Earth. The conditions for this possible temporary melting are quantitatively described for bolometric albedo values A = 0.8 and A = 0.2, and with model parameters typical for the thermo-physical conditions at snow/ice sites on the surface of present Mars. It is demonstrated by numerical modelling that there are several sets of parameters which will lead to development of layers of liquid water just below the top surface of snow- and ice-packs on Mars. This at least partial liquefaction occurs repetitively (e.g. diurnally, seasonally), and can in some cases lead to liquid water persisting through the night-time in the summer season. This liquid water can form in sufficient amounts to be relevant for macroscopic physical (rheology, erosion), for chemical, and eventually also for biological processes. The creation of temporary pockets of sub-surface water by this effect requires pre-existing snow or ice cover, and thus is more likely to take place at high latitudes, since the present deposits of snow/ice can mainly be found there. Possible rheologic and related erosion consequences of the appearance of liquid sub-surface water in martian snow/ice-packs are discussed in view of current observations of recent rheologic processes.