卡基娃滑坡的形成机制和稳定性浅析

卡基娃滑坡位于木里河卡基娃水电站拟建坝址下游左岸,为一特大型基岩古滑坡,其稳定性关系到建坝、建库的可行性和安全性。通过勘察,掌握了滑坡的边界条件、变形特征和形成机制;结合河谷地貌史的研究,采用宏观分析和定量计算相结合的方法对滑坡稳定性进行了评价,为下一步工作奠定了基础。该滑坡是川西高山峡谷区弯曲-拉裂型滑坡的典型代表,通过其形成机制和稳定性的研究,对今后认识和研究该类型的滑坡有一定帮助。     

重庆市万州区荆竹屋基滑坡特征及成因分析

论文通过对重庆市万州区孙家镇荆竹屋基滑坡的野外调查、应急抢险工作,对滑坡发生前后变形特点、滑坡形成机制以及突发性地质灾害应急处理方法等进行了总结和分析。荆竹屋基滑坡属大型基岩顺层、先牵引后推移混合型滑坡,滑坡具有变形快、裂缝、声响、掉块局部垮塌等前兆现象特征明显的特点。调查和分析发现,滑坡前缘不合理采石活动是荆竹屋基滑坡形成的主要因素。作者认为增强全社民地质灾害防灾意识、科学判断快速反应、应急预案中的实用性与操作性和岩质顺向坡的危害性等是未来万州区地质灾害防治工作的重点。     

基于信息量法和支持向量机的芦山县滑坡危险性评价

地质滑坡对人员和经济形成了巨大威胁,因此,区域地质滑坡危险性评价变得极其重要.为了将滑坡带来的损失降到最低,这里以芦山县作为研究区,分析研究区内地质环境的滑坡成因等相关特征,选择12种滑坡因子作为其滑坡危险性评价指标,采用AHP层次分析法确定滑坡因子权重,使用基于径向基核函数的支持向量机模型和信息量模型,对芦山区域进行...     

三峡库区生基包滑坡监测及成果分析

生基包滑坡监测属于三峡库区奉节县三期地质灾害监测预警项目之一,该滑坡位于长江左岸,临近人口稠密的安坪乡集镇,地理位置重要。三峡水库175 m蓄水后,其变形破坏特征有何表现？对航道安全运营有无潜在威胁？是否会对滑坡体上的重要建筑及村民生产生活构成危害？针对这些问题,首先分析了滑坡的工程地质特征及主要的影响因素;其次,确立以4种监测手段为主、人工巡查为辅的监测方案;通过对大地变形GPS、深部位移、滑坡推力等几种监测方法的运用及对其成果进行分析研究,以实例说明其在滑坡监测中的应用;再次,结合宏观人工巡查进行对照分析,以充分说明大地变形、深部位移和滑坡推力监测在实际运用中的可行性;最后,根据监测结论提出对生基包滑坡防治的建议。     

软弱基座型滑坡震裂机理研究

罐滩滑坡是“5·12”地震诱发的典型反倾软弱基座滑坡,滑坡在地震过程中并末立即滑移,而是在震后余震和降雨共同作用下产生的.为研究滑坡中下部软基在地震过程中对滑坡稳定性的影响,本文以罐滩滑坡的地质结构为背景,建立了有无软弱基座2种结构斜坡的概化模型,通过数值计算揭示了斜坡在地震动力响应过程中的应力演化过程及其破裂的产生和...     

滑坡联动在滑坡及滑坡群中作用分析——以千将坪滑坡为例

受2003年7月13日千将坪滑坡的影响,位于其北东侧牵引区的千将坪东滑坡大范围出现了因拉张和剪切作用形成的裂隙。本文研究了因滑坡联动作用而形成的牵引区特征,对千将坪滑坡发生时在千将坪东滑坡体上所产生的裂隙形成作用方式进行了研究,并分析了千将坪滑坡体不同部位在滑坡滑动过程中的相互牵引与影响方式。通过研究分析,将滑坡滑动时的牵引方式简单分为以拉张卸荷为主和以边界剪切为主的两种模式,并以这两种牵引模式来分析白果树滑坡群中各个滑坡之间的相互制约关系,拟通过从滑坡联动作用阐述千将坪滑坡以东白果树滑坡群的整体稳定及局部失稳对滑坡群整体稳定性的影响。     

滑坡动力学研究的回顾与展望

滑坡动力学研究的回顾与展望，首先追溯３百多年的滑坡研究史，因而提出滑坡动力学的形成现状，基此，阐述了滑坡动力学理论研究与方法上，将会有新的开拓与进展。     

水库库岸滑坡稳定性研究

以清江水库库岸台子上滑坡为例,在滑坡影响因素的敏感性分析的基础上对滑坡成因进行了研究,并从滑坡可靠度计算和深部位移监测成果分析等方面对滑坡稳定性进行了研究,分析认为,滑带抗剪强度参数、地下水位对滑坡稳定安全系数的影响较为敏感;滑坡稳定性可靠度值为1.64;深部位移监测资料有利于对滑坡体稳定性作出比较客观准确的评价。因此,对台子上滑坡进行适当的工程治理是十分必要的。     

基于多期DEM和滑坡强度的滑坡风险评估

滑坡危险性定量评估是滑坡风险评估中的关键和难点,也是当前国际风险管理研究中的热点问题.以滑坡密集分布的黑方台南塬为研究区,以32处典型滑坡为研究对象,依据多期三维数字高程模型(DEM),提出了一种基于强度的滑坡危险性定量评估技术方法.根据多期三维地形信息的解译及野外调查,编制多期滑坡分布图,计算滑坡活动的频率.利用GIS技术,利用滑坡体积与速度的乘积计算滑坡强度.将滑坡危险性定义为滑坡频率和滑坡强度的乘积,同时调查和分析了黑方台地区各类承灾体的类型、价值及其在相应滑坡强度下的易损性,在此基础上开展了单体滑坡风险评估和黑方台南塬滑坡风险区划.     

降雨条件下滑坡灾害及滑坡排水效果研究

根据诱发黄腊石滑坡的典型降雨过程给出了设计降雨过程和入渗曲线。 并对降雨条件下滑坡的非饱和非稳定渗流进行了分析。 重点对黄腊石滑坡群石榴树包滑坡失稳后所造成的灾害及滑坡排水效果进行了研究。     

Evolution of landslide hotspots in Taiwan

Among the disasters facing Taiwan, earthquakes and typhoons incur the greatest monetary losses, and landslide disasters inflict the greatest damage in mountainous areas. The nationwide landslide susceptibility map gives an indication of where landslides are likely to occur in the future; however, there is no objective index indicating the location of landslide hotspots. In this study, we used statistical analysis to locate landslide hotspots in catchments in Taiwan. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed the existence of landslide clusters between 2003 and 2012 and identified a concentration of landslide hotspots in the eastern part of Central Taiwan. The extreme rainfall brought by typhoon Morakot also led to the formation of new landslide hotspots in Southern Taiwan. This study provides a valuable reference explaining changes in landslide hotspots and identifying areas of high hotspot concentration to facilitate the formulation of strategies to deal with landslide risk.     

Regional-scale landslide activity and landslide susceptibility zonation in the Nepal Himalaya

Landslide susceptibility zonation mapping is a fundamental procedure for geo-disaster management in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Recently, various landslide susceptibility zonation models have been introduced in Nepal with diverse approaches of assessment. However, validation is still a problem. Additionally, the role of various predisposing causative parameters for landslide activity is still not well understood in the Nepal Himalaya. To address these issues of susceptibility zonation and landslide activity, about 4,000 km² area of central Nepal was selected for regional-scale assessment of landslide activity and susceptibility zonation mapping. In total, 655 new landslides and 9,229 old landslides were identified with the study area with the help of satellite images, aerial photographs, field data and available reports. The old landslide inventory was “blind landslide database” and could not explain the particular rainfall event responsible for the particular landslide. But considering size of the landslide, blind landslide inventory was reclassified into two databases: short-duration high-intensity rainfall-induced landslide inventory and long-duration low-intensity rainfall-induced landslide inventory. These landslide inventory maps were considered as proxy maps of multiple rainfall event-based landslide inventories. Similarly, all 9,884 landslides were considered for the activity assessment of predisposing causative parameters. For the Nepal Himalaya, slope, slope aspect, geology and road construction activity (anthropogenic cause) were identified as most affective predisposing causative parameters for landslide activity. For susceptibility zonation, multivariate approach was considered and two proxy rainfall event-based landslide databases were used for the logistic regression modelling, while a relatively recent landslide database was used in validation. Two event-based susceptibility zonation maps were merged and rectified to prepare the final susceptibility zonation map and its prediction rate was found to be more than 82 %. From this work, it is concluded that rectification of susceptibility zonation map is very appropriate and reliable. The results of this research contribute to a significant improvement in landslide inventory preparation procedure, susceptibility zonation mapping approaches as well as role of various predisposing causative parameters for the landslide activity.     

Breaching parameters of landslide dams

Landslide dams pose enormous risks to the public because of the potentially catastrophic floods generated by breaching of such dams. The need to better understand the threats of landslide dams raises questions about the proper estimation of breaching parameters (breach size, breaching duration, and peak outflow rate) of landslide dams and the feasibility of applying models for estimating the breaching parameters of man-made earthen dams to landslide dams. This paper aims to answer these two questions. In this study, a database of 1,239 landslide dams, including 257 cases formed during the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, has been compiled. Based on records of 52 landslide dam cases with breaching information in the database, empirical models for estimating the breaching parameters of landslide dams are developed. A comparison study between landslide dams and man-made earth and rockfill dams is conducted, which shows that the models for man-made earth and rockfill dams are not suitable for estimating the breaching parameters of landslide dams. Two case studies are presented to show the application of the set of empirical models developed in this paper.     

Implementing landslide path dependency in landslide susceptibility modelling

Landslide susceptibility modelling—a crucial step towards the assessment of landslide hazard and risk—has hitherto not included the local, transient effects of previous landslides on susceptibility. In this contribution, we implement such transient effects, which we term “landslide path dependency”, for the first time. Two landslide path dependency variables are used to characterise transient effects: a variable reflecting how likely it is that an earlier landslide will have a follow-up landslide and a variable reflecting the decay of transient effects over time. These two landslide path dependency variables are considered in addition to a large set of conditioning attributes conventionally used in landslide susceptibility. Three logistic regression models were trained and tested fitted to landslide occurrence data from a multi-temporal landslide inventory: (1) a model with only conventional variables, (2) a model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables, and (3) a model with only landslide path dependency variables. We compare the model performances, differences in the number, coefficient and significance of the selected variables, and the differences in the resulting susceptibility maps. Although the landslide path dependency variables are highly significant and have impacts on the importance of other variables, the performance of the models and the susceptibility maps do not substantially differ between conventional and conventional plus path dependent models. The path dependent landslide susceptibility model, with only two explanatory variables, has lower model performance, and differently patterned susceptibility map than the two other models. A simple landslide susceptibility model using only DEM-derived variables and landslide path dependency variables performs better than the path dependent landslide susceptibility model, and almost as well as the model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables—while avoiding the need for hard-to-measure variables such as land use or lithology. Although the predictive power of landslide path dependency variables is lower than those of the most important conventional variables, our findings provide a clear incentive to further explore landslide path dependency effects and their potential role in landslide susceptibility modelling.     

Assessing landslide exposure in areas with limited landslide information

Landslide risk assessment is often a difficult task due to the lack of temporal data on landslides and triggering events (frequency), run-out distance, landslide magnitude and vulnerability. The probability of occurrence of landslides is often very difficult to predict, as well as the expected magnitude of events, due to the limited data availability on past landslide activity. In this paper, a qualitative procedure for assessing the exposure of elements at risk is presented for an area of the Apulia region (Italy) where no temporal information on landslide occurrence is available. Given these limitations in data availability, it was not possible to produce a reliable landslide hazard map and, consequently, a risk map. The qualitative analysis was carried out using the spatial multi-criteria evaluation method in a global information system. A landslide susceptibility composite index map and four asset index maps (physical, social, economic and environmental) were generated separately through a hierarchical procedure of standardising and weighting. The four asset index maps were combined in order to obtain a qualitative weighted assets map, which, combined with the landslide susceptibility composite index map, has provided the final qualitative landslide exposure map. The resulting map represents the spatial distribution of the exposure level in the study area; this information could be used in a preliminary stage of regional planning. In order to demonstrate how such an exposure map could be used in a basic risk assessment, a quantification of the economic losses at municipal level was carried out, and the temporal probability of landslides was estimated, on the basis of the expert knowledge. Although the proposed methodology for the exposure assessment did not consider the landslide run-out and vulnerability quantification, the results obtained allow to rank the municipalities in terms of increasing exposure and risk level and, consequently, to identify the priorities for designing appropriate landslide risk mitigation plans.     

Regional landslide susceptibility zoning with considering the aggregation of landslide points and the weights of factors

In this paper, we propose a methodology for landslide susceptibility assessment at a regional scale in Yunnan, southwestern province of China. A landslide inventory map including 3,242 landslide points was prepared for the study area. Five factors recognized as correlated to landslide (namely, lithology, relative relief, tectonic fault density, rainfall, and road density) were analyzed and mapped in geographic information system. An index expressing the correlation between each factor and landslides [called class landslide susceptibility index (CLSI)] was proposed in the study. While analyzing landslide distribution in a large area, point aggregation might be expected. To quantify the uncertainty caused by aggregation, class landslide aggregation index was proposed. To account for the importance of each of the factors in the landslide susceptibility assessment, some weights were calculated by means of analytic hierarchy process. We propose a weighted class landslide susceptibility model (WCLSM), obtained by the combination of CLSI values of each factor with the correspondent weight. WCLSM performance in the study area was evaluated comparing the results obtained by first modeling all landslides and then by performing a time partition. The model was run including only landslides that occurred before 2009 and then validated with respect to landslides that occurred after 2009. The prediction–rate curve shows that the WCLSM model provides a good prediction for the study area. Of the study area, 21.4 % shows very high and high susceptibility and includes the 87.7 % of the number of landslides that occurred after 2009.     

Rainfall event-based landslide susceptibility zonation mapping

Landslide susceptibility assessment is a major research topic in geo-disaster management. In recent days, various landslide susceptibility and landslide hazard assessment methodologies have been introduced with diverse thoughts of assessment and validation method. Fundamentally, in landslide susceptibility zonation mapping, the susceptibility predictions are generally made in terms of likelihoods and probabilities. An overview of landslide susceptibility zoning practices in the last few years reveals that susceptibility maps have been prepared to have different accuracies and reliabilities. To address this issue, the work in this paper focuses on extreme event-based landslide susceptibility zonation mapping and its evaluation. An ideal terrain of northern Shikoku, Japan, was selected in this study for modeling and event-based landslide susceptibility mapping. Both bivariate and multivariate approaches were considered for the zonation mapping. Two event-based landslide databases were used for the susceptibility analysis, while a relatively new third event landslide database was used in validation. Different event-based susceptibility zonation maps were merged and rectified to prepare a final susceptibility zonation map, which was found to have an accuracy of more than 77 %. The multivariate approach was ascertained to yield a better prediction rate. From this study, it is understood that rectification of susceptibility zonation map is appropriate and reliable when multiple event-based landslide database is available for the same area. The analytical results lead to a significant understanding of improvement in bivariate and multivariate approaches as well as the success rate and prediction rate of the susceptibility maps.     

折线型滑面滑坡桩排推力分布规律研究

大型滑坡多排、埋入式抗滑桩设计中,需要明确桩排间距、桩顶埋深不同时各排桩分担的滑坡推力的大小及桩身推力分布形式。采用室内模型试验方法,研究滑面形态为折线形、后陡前缓的折线型滑坡在滑面位置已知情况下各排抗滑桩分担的滑坡推力,并总结出折线型滑坡在桩排间距不同时各排桩分担滑坡推力的规律。同时采用有限元强度折减法对桩顶埋深改变时（前排桩不变）桩身推力分布形式的一般规律进行了分析,提出折线型滑坡桩排间距、桩顶埋深的变化能有效改善前、后排桩分担滑坡推力的比例。研究结论对于更加安全、经济地进行多排、埋入式抗滑桩加固大型滑坡的设计具有一定指导意义。     

Analysis of time-varying rainfall infiltration induced landslide

A case study of rainstorm-induced landslide is modeled following the hourly rainfall time series from the stage of infiltration caused by induced slope movement and soil saturated to excess pore pressures—Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis (TRIGRS). The grid-based landslide stability analysis was conducted to model the increased pore pressures and runoff in the study area under the specified rainfall conditions. The generated time variances of pore pressures help determine landslide characteristics and mechanisms under rainfall conditions. Inputs of soil properties and permeability parameters for landslide stability analysis in the study area were prepared by TRIGRS adopted for transient infiltration analysis. Results of the analyses show that under heavy rainfall conditions, the infiltrated slope is unstable and the time of debris masses movement initiated is correlated to the recorded time. In the initiated landslide, characteristics and effects are considered and reflected in the numerical modeling under combinations of topography, land use, climatic and geological conditions. Results reveal that there is a plane failure surface and a potential circular failure surface at the study site besides the rock topple failures in the crest. A grid-based slope-stability analysis incorporated with the GIS spatial functions is more advantageous than the traditional two-dimensional analysis for specified slope profiles to determine the whole behavior of a slope.