Disaggregating the historical demographic sources of regional foreign-born and native-born population growth in the United States: a new method with applications

This paper analyzes the demographic processes that contribute to population growth and redistribution in a multiregional system using a new method. The method incorporates a historical perspective that can be used to trace dynamic population processes as they evolve over time. It uses an open multiregional projection model framework in identifying the contributions to regional growth made by each of the principal demographic components of change: fertility, mortality, immigration, emigration, in-migration, and out migration. At the same time, the method recognizes the importance of disaggregating the native-born and foreign-born populations. Available public data and indirect estimation techniques are used to develop the data inputs for the projection model, with which the regional population changes for each 5-year period between 1950 and 1990 were reconstructed. Regional growth rates for the foreign-born and native-born populations are partitioned into the separate demographic components of change, and the projection model identifies the separate contributions to regional growth made by each population. This allows a direct comparison of the impact of immigration with those of corresponding native-born contributions effected through internal migration and natural increases. Finally, the application of the method allows the identification of the contribution that 'recent' (post-1965) immigrant cohorts have made to the composition of the youngest age groups in each region, and also to simulate the impacts of zero immigration scenarios on regional growth.     

Population trends and the status of population policy in Africa

There is every indication that Africa's population growth will remain well above the world average for the remainder of this decade and probably for the rest of this century. With the exception of the island states and parts of North Africa, fertility levels show little indication of change. This is in part a reflection of little desire for small families, as well as a consequence of limited or even restricted family planning services. Great diversity in attitudes regarding population policy prevails among African governments, ranging from extreme pronatal to committed antinatal. Even with antinatal policies, however, many African states have yet to attain any significant success in depressing their rates of growth. To date, Mauritius can be cited as the only state to have almost achieved the transition from high to low fertility. The consequence of these continuing trends is that Africa will see further increases in its youth dependency ratio. Pressures on infrastructural services will therefore increase, and the problems of generating employment will intensify. While demographic factors are by no means the only ones creating economic stress on the continent, they clearly are contributory. Unlike Asia or parts of Latin America, Africa's problem is less a matter of too many people but rather 1 of excessive growth in too short a time frame. A realistic and effective long-term population policy, therefore, is an immediate need. Several countries including Nigeria (with a pouplation of over 80 million) are experiencing a crude birth rate of 50 or more/1,000. At least 4 countries, including Kenya, are currently doubling their population in 20 years or less. With these current population trends, a demographic transition to low vital rates must assume passage through an even higher growth phase than is currently being experienced because the fall in birth rates tends to occur much later than the fall in death rates. Government population policies and the status of family planning activities are illustrated according to natal sentiments and attitudes. Trends in national vital rates and of population structures in Africa are illustrated.     

On the Components of Indigenous Population Change

The 2001 census count of Indigenous Australians produced an intercensal change in numbers that cannot be explained by demographic processes alone. Using census and vital registration data, this paper unravels the components of such change and provides new insight into Indigenous population dynamics. In particular, it establishes the first estimates of proximate determinants of fertility, and extends mortality analysis by examining the components of low Indigenous life expectancy. Results show that demographic factors account for only 69 per cent of population change. Of these components, national Indigenous fertility is found to be below replacement level, while lack of convergence between Indigenous and non-Indigenous mortality remains. As Indigenous socio-economic circumstances are spatially diverse, the paper also explores the geography of demographic processes using data for 36 ATSIC regions and capital city/balance of State classifications. This reveals continued high fertility across parts of north Australia and an indication that mortality levels are associated with degree of urban residence.     

Demographic transition in Sri Lanka: a spatial perspective

Demographic transition theory involves a lagging fertility transition induced by a leading mortality transition. This article focuses on the linkage between the mortality and fertility transitions in Sri Lanka; it discusses the measurement of areal fertility, demonstrates the use of a measure not commonly used in population geography, and shows areal association between past mortality and recent fertility. The Coale or Princeton fertility indices allow a reasonably good view of structural and behavioral aspects of fertility; the Coale indices examine the contribution of structure to total fertility and the contribution of marital fertility. Although recent fertility decline has been less rapid than the post-war mortality decline, Sri Lanka's crude birth rate in 1975 was the 5th lowest in Asia. Sri Lanka experienced very high crude death rates in 1930, and quite low rates in 1950 and in subsequent years. This demonstrates an association between historic mortality and recent fertility, and that association can be linked deductively to demographic transition theory. In 1930, malaria was endemic throughout the Dry Zone of Sri Lanka, and hyperendemic in several districts. The Spearman rank correlation coefficients reveal the strongest relationship between malaria and nuptiality; this lends evidence to the notion that structural influences on fertility--such as delayed marriage--are more important than influences on marital fertility--such as coital frequency. The evidence suggests that mortalily decline in Sri Lanka led to an increase in fertility in those areas where malaria had been concentrated. This suggests the possibility that measures constituting malaria control or eradication also stimulate increased fertility; therefore, anti-malarial programs must be integrated with family planning.     

Population policy and the Five Year Plans

Population policy and the 5-year plans since 1951 in India are reivewed and evaluated in terms of limiting population growth. The family planning (FP) programs have not had a major impact on people's attitudes, practice of contraceptives, or the average fertility rate. Not enough attention has been paid to the interaction of demographic structure and economic and social development, and the implications for limiting population growth. Vital elements of a population policy are containing population growth, limiting births among the young and reproductive age groups, enhancing employment options for males and females, diversifying the economy, improving literacy and educational standards, improving urban/rural ratios, and balancing male/female ratios. Several approaches to FP programs are possible: long term measures to improve the social, economic, and demographic structure, and short term measures to immediately avert births. Long term approaches recognize the complexity of the problem. Rapid socioeconomic development is the best contraceptive for controlling India's population. A well conceived population education program can help, as will increasing the marriage age, preventing children from entering the labor market, increasing female education levels, providing old age pension and social security and other insurance, and providing maternity benefits for small families. Short term measures may provide temporary or permanent methods of averting births; i.e., contraceptives, sterilization, penalties and rewards for small families. However, it must not be a bureaucratic measure imposed from above. It must be a self generating process. The author suggests that simultaneous long and short term approaches are necessary. Research should be conducted to delineate which measures have the most impact on reducing fertility and policy be formulated in accordance with these answers. Compulsion is required, and government should not hesitate to step in. In rural areas, traditional and modern methods in FP should be tried in order to achieve responsible behavior. The population increases in India were a result of a mortality decline starting in 1921 and a fertility decline starting in 1971. Attention must focus on high fertility areas such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. The 7th 5-year plan was important for making FP voluntary and generating an environment for fertility decline, and the 8th should establish FP as a self generating process.     

Six billion people: how the continents were populated--yesterday,today, and tomorrow

World population growth from settlement of the continents to future population size is broadly traced in this work. Population growth has accelerated greatly in the past two centuries and especially since 1950. The first billion was reached only in 1850, while the fifth billion, in 1986, required only 11 years. Past population growth was slow, irregular, and variable from continent to continent. Population estimates for prehistory have a margin of error of around 50%. Modern man first appeared in Africa or possibly the Middle East around 100,000 BC. The three great centers of population in China, India, and the Middle East and Mediterranean area developed during the Neolithic Revolution and have maintained their importance. At least 500,000 years ago, humans began using fire and clothing to escape the limits of their biotype and geographic area of origin. The peopling of the continents was not achieved by massive displacement of surplus population, but by movement of small groups into empty space where they proliferated. World population was an estimated 460-510 million in 1500, with probably 135 million in China, 95 million in India, and 80 million in Europe. The balance between fertility and mortality postulated by transition theory has not occurred in Europe. World population is projected to increase from 2.5 billion to 6 billion between 1950 and 2000, with 61% in Asia, 12% in Africa, 9% in Latin America, and 5% in Europe. The world rate of population growth is still about 1.4% annually. The demographic explosion will have been a transitory episode in human history, but revolutionary in its impact.     

Demographic transition in small countries

Half of the world's 200 countries have less than 3.37 million inhabitants, and many of these small countries are often assumed to experience rapid demographic transition. This is true of many of the small island populations of the developing world, especially those with largely immigrant and pluralistic populations, unusual family structures, and rapid economic development. Smallness of population alone, however, is not sufficient to ensure rapid demographic transition and many small countries of mainland Africa have experienced little transition.     

Singapore in the 1990s. Can population policies reverse the demographic transition?

Singapore experienced an extraordinary demographic transition from a population growth of over 4% per year in the late 1950s to around 1.6% in the 1990s and below replacement fertility since 1986. In 1987 official government policy shifted to measures for increasing fertility. This paper explores whether Singapore's pronatalist policies can reverse the demographic transition. The present policies aim to selectively increase fertility among the well educated. By 1987 the slogan switched from "stop at two" to "have three, if you can afford it." The policy included tax relief for a third child and other measures to encourage a third child. The policies are expected to have a different influence on society according to one's education, income, and family size. The government target is to selectively increase population by 40% over 25 years. Singapore's transition may follow the theory that low fertility is attained in societies where kin relationships are less important than personal educational achievements. The three ethnic groups responded differently to educational and fertility policies. The Chinese acquired the best education and attained the lowest fertility. The Chinese, who comprised 76% of total population in 1986, continued to have low fertility, while increases occurred among the Malays and the Indians. Future trends are considered difficult to predict. A survey conducted in 1992 in Ang Mo Kio among 489 reproductive age respondents revealed that Malays had the earliest marriage and first births before the age of 25 years (75% of Malays and 50% of Indians). The Chinese had their first child at 25 years or older. Without controls for the age of the mother, a strong statistically significant association was found between ethnic group and age at marriage and age at first birth. The relationship was not supported for current fertility. A comparison of women married for 5 years or less and 5 years or more revealed that women in recent marriages showed a greater likelihood of postponing marriage and childbirth for all ethnic groups. Since 1987, third order births as a percentage of all births increased from 21.47% before 1987 to 23.11% during 1987-92, which only suggests the favorable impact of the pronatalist policy. Educational changes are likely to become more influential in affecting choice of family size.     

The Changing Geography of U.S. Hispanics from 1990–2006: A Shift to the South and Midwest

Abstract

Between 1990 and 2000 the U.S. Hispanic population increased by 14 million, which is the largest decadal population rise in United States history. This increase was not spread evenly throughout the United States, nor was it isolated to locations that already had large Hispanic populations. On the contrary, areas that previously had a relatively small Hispanic population experienced large percentage increases. In this article the regional variability in Hispanic population growth is explored, along with an emphasis on the economic pull factors driving those demographic changes. This analysis illustrates how restructuring in the meatpacking industry, and the associated economic impacts, have created a dependence on a low wage, illegal labor force that has shaped the recent demographic trend in the South and Midwest.     

Ideology and data analysis in African population policies. The case of Kenya

It is argued that the research agenda on fertility decline needs to be explanatory rather than operational and not tied to government policy justification. The research agenda should be set in the broader developmental and geographic contexts and with consideration of cultural practices. Demographic and Health Surveys provide limited biosocial data, which does not provide a fuller analysis of the factors affecting contraceptive use and effectiveness. Clear associations are drawn between rising contraceptive use and fertility decline and are used as supports for national and international policy makers. Although policy formation may be justified by this research agenda, the view is taken that this is "bad science." Kenya has been used as a model for population change in Africa. Kenya is viewed as a country with obvious direct government involvement in policies on fertility reduction, which mirror the ideological biases of the global model. The global model assumes a universal relationship between fertility and contraceptive prevalence and attaches little significance to cultural differences. However, research recognizes that in Africa family relationships, land tenure, and economic organization are different and highly variable. If economic and social variables on Kenya were available, it is possible that the economic change hypothesis could be proven. Kenya has great regional differences and wide gaps in levels of development. For many countries population growth is the key factor in development, and policies reflect the threat of loan conditions or reductions in foreign aid. Many African countries moved in the direction of reducing population growth through improved health and education, more jobs, improved status of women, and other indirect measures. This approach relies on the Western model of demographic transition. This author argues that knowledge and conclusions about fertility in Africa are more conditioned by ideology rather than technical concerns. In the case of Kenya ideology is supported by research, but a fuller explanation of family formation is not yet available. Kenya's population policy is based on the contraception hypothesis, and data are not yet available for testing other alternative child mortality or economic change hypotheses and constructively informing policy makers about fertility decline.     

中国人口死亡率空间格局演变及其影响因素

人口死亡率是人口转型关键因素之一,而人口转型又关系着地区社会经济发展质量。以2000—2015年粗死亡率数据为基础,通过变异系数、趋势分析和空间自相关分析中国人口死亡率空间格局差异及演变态势,并结合偏最小二乘回归定量分析人口死亡率影响因素。结果发现：（1）中国人口死亡率大致呈西北、东北和东南低,中部及西南高态势,且各时段人口死亡率降低省份高于增长省份;（2）中国各省死亡率变异系数差异悬殊,且在空间趋势中东西方向呈现两端低中间高、南北方向由两端低中间高向北低南高转变;（3）人口死亡率全局空间集聚程度不断减弱,区域差异缩小,且局部空间上以高-高和低-低聚集为主;（4）人口老龄化是人口死亡率提升的主要推动因子,其次分别为工业废水排放总量、突发环境事件次数和气候条件等。人均生产总值对人口死亡率起主要抑制作用,其次分别为每千人口床位数、每十万人口大学平均在校生数、人均用水量和空气质量。农作物受灾面积合计对人口死亡率在不同年份作用力不一致。     

A DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF THE TAWAHKA AMERINDIANS OF HONDURAS*

ABSTRACT. Latin America's lowland indigenous groups have been characterized in contradictory ways. Are populations shrinking or growing? Do groups face cultural extinction, or are they increasingly asserting their ethnic identities? This article uses a case study of the Tawahka Amerindians of Honduras to show how basic demographic techniques can shed light on these issues. A multimethod approach resolves conflicting reports of population growth and ethnic admixture within the 1,000‐strong population. Household surveys indicate a contemporary growth rate in excess of 4 percent; a review of historical sources suggests that this rapid growth has been building for more than fifty years. Although genealogical evidence shows high levels of interethnic mixing since 1900, the Tawahka retain their language and identity. The potentially negative effects of rapid population growth on local resources are likely to be mitigated as the Tawahka translate their renewed ethnic identity into political gains, which in turn have increased educational and economic opportunities. Closer attention to microdemographic processes is recommended for those involved in the long‐term management of Latin America's indigenous homelands.     

全面二孩政策对中国人口结构及区域人口空间格局的影响

从“单独二孩”到“全面二孩”,近几年中国生育政策的连续调整,不仅引起了社会的强烈反响,而且也将对中国未来的人口结构和空间格局产生重要影响。本文利用人口学的队列元素法对全面放开二孩政策实施后,中国未来总人口及人口结构的变化趋势进行预测,并从地理学的角度分析了全面放开二孩对中国区域人口空间格局的影响。结果表明：①全面放开二孩可以有效延缓中国总人口的递减趋势、老龄化的趋势以及未来劳动人口不断走低的趋势;②全面放开二孩政策前后,中国的区域人口空间分布均呈现东部人口密度最高、中部次之、东北再次、西部最低的总体格局,全面放开二孩将会增加胡焕庸线东南侧的人口密度,中国人口分布东南集聚、西北相对稀疏的格局将会长期存在并进一步加剧;③根据各省全面放开二孩政策后未来15年人口变化强度,可划分为人口快速变化区、人口中速变化区、人口缓慢变化区和人口平稳区。     

Effects of land conversion on the regeneration of Pachycereus pecten-aboriginum and its consequences on the population dynamics in northwestern Mexico

Pachycereus pecten-aboriginum is a columnar cactus currently threatened by the conversion of natural vegetation to buffelgrass pasture (Pennisetum ciliare) in Sonora, Mexico. However, knowledge about its population dynamics is extremely poor, particularly in response to disturbance caused by pasture conversion. We set up experiments to evaluate seed removal, germination, seedling survival and compared demographic patterns on permanent plots from natural vegetation and pasture. Our experiments on regeneration show that seedlings were unable to establish in pasture because of high levels of mortality due to soil drying and cattle trampling. The population growth rate (λ) was 1.060 and 1.086 for the 2006–2007 and 2007–2008 periods, respectively, in the native thornscrub vegetation. The slight increase in λ in 2007–2008 was a result of increased fecundity and seedling survival. The highest elasticity values correspond to the survival of large/old individuals. Using the average of both matrices, we obtained a mean matrix to perform numerical analyses simulating demographic variation to project the population behavior under buffelgrass pasture conditions. The numerical simulations suggest a decreasing population only when adult survival probabilities were affected. Given these limitations for population growth, our data suggest that adult populations that persist on pastures will be driven into local extinction.     

中国塔吉克族人口发展初探

本文根据全国历来四次人口普查资料，对我国塔吉克族人口形热进行了简要的论述。文中阐述了塔吉克族人口规模的发展、变化以及人口再生产类型，并简述了相关的社会、经济、文化等方面的问题。     

走向空间的人口学研究：西方空间人口学研究的回顾、评价与展望

空间是人口学研究的固有维度,20世纪50年代以来,西方学者已开始从空间视角探究人口问题。近年来,随着计算机技术和空间分析方法的提升,西方空间人口学研究发展迅速,逐渐走向成熟化与体系化,成为人口学研究的重要方向。我国人口学在空间维度上的分析虽然已有“胡焕庸线”等经典成果,但具体到空间人口学这一学科进展方面,仍需对空间人口学中的核心概念进行辨析,并阐述空间人口学与人口地理学的关系。本文首先简述西方空间人口学的起源、发展与演化,并从分异与隔离、生育与死亡、迁移与城镇化、区域人口预测、人口与环境等5大主题对跨世纪以来西方空间人口学研究进行梳理。此外,本文归纳了空间人口学研究的主要方法。最后,对空间人口学未来研究方向进行展望,并对国内空间人口学研究提出建议。     

1951年以来奥地利人口变化的空间特征

根据1951-2001年奥地利人口调查统计数据,分析了近50年来奥地利人口变化的时空间规律,以及人口变化中的增长区和下降区的区域配置等特征,并建立人口变化模式。研究表明：20世纪后半叶奥地利经历了其他欧盟国所表现出的城市化、城市郊区化和人口老龄化的各个过程。特别是城市老龄化表现更为突出,据预测推算,到2035年奥地利将会有1/3的人口超过60岁。在分析过程中,不仅应用了行政区划的区域方法,而且也依据土地利用的经济性质,在“土地经济生产小区”的基底上,对人口的变化规律进行了更为深入的透视。研究结果显示：奥地利西部阿尔卑斯山地中的城市区域人口增长幅度最大。沿着捷克和斯洛伐克边界伸展的北部和东北部区域是最严重的人口缺失地区。而奥地利阿尔卑斯山地东部的一些早期产业都市及其郊区,乃至更远一些的南部和东南部的老工业区域,目前由于普遍存在着经济的困境,也直接导致了这些地区人口的下降。但奥地利未来的总人口趋势将持续稳定。     

PERCEPTION OF COLOR SEQUENCES ON MAPS OF ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE

Impervious surface cover is often associated with low socioeconomic status (SES) and vegetation with high SES in urban areas in both developed and developing countries. This study documents the relationships among land cover, number of years urbanized (YR), topographic slope, and socioeconomic indicators, including a socioeconomic marginality index (MI), in Tijuana, Mexico. Unlike in other urban areas, vegetation cover decreased slightly and impervious cover increased significantly with increasing SES in Tijuana. This pattern was due to (1) slightly higher vegetation cover in tracts with high MI (low SES), where informal settlements were sometimes on steep slopes with remnant patches of vegetation; (2) significantly higher soil cover and low impervious cover in tracts with high MI due to unpaved roads and vacant lots, and (3) low vegetation cover and high impervious cover in tracts with low MI, which included the city center and new suburban developments with high population densities. YR, slope, and population density were important secondary predictors of land cover and SES. Approximately half of the variance in the proportion of the population with drainage and with piped water supply was explained by a multiple regression with land cover, slope, and YR, whereas fertility and infant mortality correlated with but were not predicted well by land cover. The combination of rapid population growth, variable topography, semiarid climate, and history of service development in Tijuana resulted in unexpected associations between SES and land cover, with implications for the environment and public health.     

Study of the Population Carrying Capacity of Water and Land in Hainan Province

In recent years, the rapid growth of population in Haikou and Sanya has caused extensive concern about the carrying capacity of Hainan Province. To formulate scientific population and environmental policies, it is necessary to research the relationship between population, carrying capacity and economic growth. In this paper, three indicators, grain production, nutrient composition of agricultural products and water resources, are used to measure carrying capacity quantitatively; the employment elasticity coefficient method is used to set the employment elasticity coefficient and the growth rate of regional GDP to estimate the total population needed to support economic growth; PADIS-INT population forecasting software that has parameters to track total fertility rate and net migration rate is used to predict demographic changes. The results show that, as of 2050, the total population of Hainan Province will not have exceeded the upper limit of the carrying capacity of land and water resources. In general, there is no overpopulation problem in the province, but there may be structural problems related to population, such as a large proportion of elderly people, labor shortages, and a high social dependency ratio. It is suggested that the local government should adopt positive population policies, improve the management of natural resources and the environment, and guide the balanced development of population in the province.     

Scenarios for the Future Population of Sydney

The period 1996-2001 has witnessed a refocusing of population growth on Sydney and Melbourne as both cities have developed significant concentrations of so-called 'new economy' jobs and taken on, to greater or lesser extents, the characteristics of global cities. The consequence of these trends, for Sydney most particularly, is population growth. This paper establishes this demographic reality by describing recent demographic trends in Sydney and possible future scenarios for Sydney's population, given differing levels of fertility, internal migration and international migration. A related future trend is also traced--that the number of households in Sydney will grow more rapidly than the population due to changes in household structure. This raises the issue of how and where these households will be accommodated, given the relative land shortage in the Sydney Statistical Division and given that there is no doubt that planners in New South Wales will be attempting to maintain and enhance Sydney's status as a global city. In sum, the paper argues that Sydney planners should be preparing for growth of around one million people in the next 20 years and a further one million in the following 30 years. To maintain that potential future residents of Sydney can be redirected to other parts of New South Wales is a vain hope.