Zebiak-Cane海气耦合模式研究进展

系统、全面地总结了国内外关于Zebiak-Cane海气耦合模式的应用及分析研究，指出了模式的优点及存在的不足，并评析了模式改进工作，最后进行了讨论并展望未来的发展方向。     

改进Zebiak-Cane耦合模式的空间场结构

针对Zebiak-Cane耦合模式的模拟风场与观测存在的明显差异,本文用引进Hadley环流异常改进的Zebiak-Cane模式作了ENSO循环的模拟,发现改进的模式不但风场的模拟更接近于观测,而且1992～1993年的海温异常预报也与观测一致。     

海气耦合环流模式及耦合技术的研究

介绍了近年来国内外海气耦合环流模式的研究、发展趋势,对不同模式的耦合技术及其人预报试验进行了综合分析,从ＥＮＳＯ预测与耦合环流模式的组成分类、模式的气候漂移及其处理技术（耦合方案）的特点,模式的季节、年际、年代际预报能力等方面评述了当前海气耦合环流模式的研究进展和影响耦合模式预报能力的有关问题,指出目前发展海气耦合模式的观难点所在,并就我国现状提出了进行针对性研究的具体想法。     

全球热带简单海气耦合模式中的ENSO预报试验

利用一个全球热带简单海气耦合模式(GTSM模式),并选取热带三大洋较强的冷暖事件作为预报对象进行了若干预报试验,分析结果发现:在GTSM模式中由于热带三大洋海气耦合通过大气模式而相互作用和影响,使得该模式对于东大西洋和中东印度洋较强冷暖事件的预报能力,较单独大西洋或单独印度洋耦合模式均有明显提高,预报和观测的ATL3、IND3指数的相关系数达到0.5以上的月份,分别达到9个月和6个月左右;而在东太平洋则和ZC(LDEO1)模式差不多,预报和观测的Nio3指数的相关系数达到0.6以上的月份可以达到15个月左右.     

国外海气耦合模式及其季、年际预报的研究现状

通过对国外各类海气耦合模式及其预报试验的综合分析,从海气耦合模式的分类、模式气候漂移和ENSO年际变化的处理、模式分辨率、耦合方式和模式参数的变化对模式年际变化的影响、ENSO年际预报与预报起始时间和资料的关系、ENSO和季风的海陆气耦合系统等方面评述了影响季和年际数值预报水平的有关问题及发展现状,并对开展我国相应试验研究工作提出了看法。     

利用混合海气耦合模式的气候异常预报试验

用混合海气耦合模式长期积分的模拟结果, 分析了模式大气的年际变化性; 用1979~1994年间的“回报”个例, 探讨了该模式对ENSO引起的全球气候异常的预报。结果表明:模式能较好地再现与ENSO相关的全球大气环流的年际变化特征; 对预报而言, 模式较高的预报技巧主要分布在热带地区, 全球热带大气具有较稳定的1年左右的可预报时效; 基本上可预报中、高纬地区由ENSO引起的冬、夏季大气环流异常 (包括气温和降水), 超前时间可达9个月至1年。     

一个简单海气耦合模式预报性能评估

对改进初始强迫风场后的Zebiak-Cane海气耦合模式预报性能进行了全面评估。结果表明：1）耦合模式在20世纪90年代预报能力小于80年代；提前0～5个月的耦合模式预报能力小于同期持续预报能力，之后则相反；耦合模式对Nino3区指数预报能力最强。2）在1997／1998年El Nino事件期间，耦合模式对东太平洋SSTA场预报能力大于其对中西太平洋SSTA场的预报能力，且提前0～2个月之后的耦合模式对东太平洋SSTA场预报能力远远大于持续预报。     

一个海气耦合模式模拟的云辐射过程

利用NCC/IAP T63海气耦合模式进行了20 a积分,详细分析了模式对云量及其辐射影响的模拟能力。结果表明,模式能够模拟出云量分布的基本特征,但同ISCCP卫星观测资料及ERA再分析资料相比还存在较大的差距,总体表现为模拟的云量偏小,尤其是海洋上部分地区出现了异常的低值区。通过对云量方案的改进,明显改善了两大洋东岸、夏半球副热带到中纬度海洋上空低云的模拟。但模式对热带印度洋到西太平洋地区云量的模拟仍然存在明显的偏差,这主要是由于模式对该地区强对流云模拟能力差,造成该地区高云模拟存在较大的误差。对辐射及其云辐射强迫的分析表明,模式对长波及其云辐射强迫的模拟要明显好于短波。短波辐射模拟的偏差主要是由于短波云辐射强迫模拟过小、耦合模式对积雪和海冰模拟较差、以及未考虑气溶胶的影响等原因共同引起的;而长波辐射模拟的差距主要是云量以及下垫面温度模拟不足造成的。相应于云量方案的改进,两大洋东岸、夏半球副热带到中纬度海洋上辐射(尤其是短波辐射)的模拟有了明显的改善,这也明显改进了这些地区的净辐射模拟。     

全球海气耦合模式（BCC_CM1.0）对江淮梅雨降水预报的检验

以国家气候中心全球大气-海洋耦合模式(BCC-CM1.0)20年的预报产品为基础,重点分析了该模式对中国江淮梅雨的预报能力以及梅雨预报中存在误差的可能原因.试验表明:BCC-CM1.0对江淮梅雨降水有一定的预报能力,模式基本上能够预报出气候态下梅雨降水的空间分布特征.尽管其方差贡献率和时间系数与观测相比有偏差,但模式还是能够预报出梅雨降水的主要模态.气候平均下,BCC-CM1.0模式预报的梅雨雨带位置偏北,因而预报的江淮流域长江以北降水偏多,而长江以南预报的降水偏少.同时发现模式对江淮流域梅雨期中等强度降水预报较好,雨强概率分布与观测结果基本一致,而对大雨强降水和小雨强降水预报相对较差.合成分析发现,江淮流域雨带偏北、降水偏少时,模式的预报能力较好;而江淮流域雨带偏南、降水偏多时,模式预报能力相对较差.BCC-CM1.0对高度场的预报普遍偏低,尤其是在青藏高原上空有一个虚假的低值中心,对副热带高压的预报也偏弱,这样使得东亚季风区气压梯度增加,从而导致预报的东亚夏季风偏强、向北推进的幅度加大,最终致使预报的梅雨雨带偏北.此外,比湿场预报的偏差也可能是造成梅雨雨带偏北的原因之一.     

用一个简单海气耦合模式对20世纪90年代厄尔尼诺事件的预报试验

使用一个动力海洋与统计大气耦合的热带太平洋模式,对20世纪90年代的厄尔尼诺事件进行了数值模拟和预报.结果表明,模式能较好地再现3次暖事件的发展和演化过程,也能模拟1995/1996年的冷海温过程.预报试验的结果指出,20世纪90年代发生的厄尔尼诺事件具有其特殊性,很难在发展阶段作出准确预报,而一旦形成后,模式仍可对这类事件的成熟位相阶段作出大致提前6个月的有效预报.文中还用该模式对1997年的热带太平洋海表温度作了预报试验,预测1997年年底可能发生一次新的厄尔尼诺事件.关键词:20世纪90年代厄尔尼诺,简单海气耦合模式,预报试验.     

THE IMPACT OF INITIAL FORCED WIND ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF THE ZEBIAK-CANE COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL

With simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), the difference between NCEP/NCAR 925hPa reanalysis wind stress anomaly (NCEPWSA) and FSU wind stress anomaly (FSUWSA) is analyzed, and the prediction abilities of Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model (ZC coupled model) with NCEPWSA and FSUWSA serving respectively as initialization wind are compared. The results are as follows. The distribution feature of NCEPWSA matches better with that of the observed SSTA than counterpart of FSUWSA both in 1980s and in 1990s; The ZC ocean model has a better skill under the forcing of NCEPWSA than that of FSUWSA, especially in 1990s. Meanwhile, the forecast abilities of the ZC coupled model in 1990s as well as in 1980s have been improved employing NCEPWSA as initialization wind instead of FSUWSA. Particularly, it succeeded in predicting 1997/1998 El Ni?o 6 to 8 months ahead; further analysis shows that on the antecedent and onset stages of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o event, the horizontal cold and warm distribution characteristics of the simulated SSTA from ZC ocean model, with NCEPWSA forcing compared to FSUWSA forcing, match better with counterparts of the corresponding observed SSTA, whereby providing better predication initialization conditions for ZC coupled model, which, in turn, is favorable to improve the forecast ability of the coupled model.     

A STUDY ON THE IMPACTS OF LATENT HEAT PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME ON PREDICTION SKILL OF ENSO WITH A SIMPLE OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE COUPLED

This study revises Weare’s latent heat parameterization scheme and conducts an associated theoretic analysis. The revised Weare’s scheme is found to present potentially better results than Zebiak’s scheme. The Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model, initialized by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis of wind stress anomaly at 925 hPa, is referred to as the ZCW coupled model. The atmosphere models of the ZCW coupled model that use Zebiak’s scheme and the revised Weare’s scheme are referred to as the ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models, respectively. The coupled ocean-atmosphere models that use Zebiak’s scheme and the revised Weare’s scheme are referred to as the ZCW0and ZCWN coupled models, respectively. The simulations between the ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models and between the ZCW0 and ZCWN coupled models are analyzed. The results include: (1) The evolution of heat, meridional wind and divergence anomalies simulated by similar ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models, although the magnitudes of the former are larger than those of the latter; (2) The prediction skill of the Ni?o3 index from 1982 to 1999 by the ZCWN coupled model shows improvement compared with those by the ZCW0 coupled model; (3) The analysis of El Ni?o events in 1982/1983, 1986/1987, and 1997/1998 and La Ni?a events in 1984/1985, 1988/1989, and 1998/2000 suggests that the ZCWN coupled model is better than the ZCW0 coupled model in predicting warm event evolution and cold event generation. The results also show the disadvantage of the ZCWN coupled model for predicting El Ni?o     

IMPACT OF THE INITIALIZATION ON MESOSCALE MODEL PREDICTION IN SOUTH CHINA

1 INTRODUCTION The initial state of the atmosphere is one of the key factors that affect the result of NWP. With the development of increasingly finer NWP, the quality of initial atmospheric state has been drawing more and more attention[1-7].     

IMPACT OF THE INITIALIZATION ON MESOSCALE MODEL PREDICTION IN SOUTH CHINA

1 INTRODUCTIONThe initial state of the atmosphere is one of the keyfactors that affect the result of NWP. With thedevelopment of increasingly finer NWP, the quality ofinitial atmospheric state has been drawing more andmore attention[1-7]. GRAPES 3D- Var(G…     

A GLOBAL COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL OF SHALLOW WATER WAVE AND ITS NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS

A global coupled air-sea model of shallow water wave is developed based on coupled ocean-atmospheredynamics.The coupling is realized through the air-sea interaction process that the atmosphere acts on theocean by wind stress and the ocean acts on the atmosphere with heating proportional to sea surface temperature(SST)anomaly.The equation is harotropic primitive one.Response experiments of coupling system arealso carried out SSTA in two categories of intensities.Compared with the results of AGCM simulation ex-periment in which only the dynamic change of air system is considered,it demonstrates that the air-seainteraction between the tropical ocean and the global atmosphere plays a very important role in the evolutionof climate system.The results of numerical simulation show that it is encouraging.     

THE EFFECTS OF TIBETAN PLATEAU ON THE ANOMALOUS VARIATION OF ASIAN MONSOON IN A COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM

Experimental predictions with a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model(L9R15 AGCM-ZCocean model)were performed for the 1986/87 El Nino event and the 1988/89 La Nina event withand without the Tibetan Plateau respectively(called TP FORC and NTP FORC hereinafter).Comparison shows that,to some extent,the existence of the Tibetan Plateau orography weakensor restrains(strengthens or facilitates)the formation of the anomalous circulation of Asianmonsoon during El Nino(La Nina)period.Opposite results are found in the uncoupled AGCMsimulation.     

华南地区中尺度模式预报的初值影响分析

基于GRAPES 3D-Vat同化系统,介绍了根据静力平衡关系由高度场的增量来计算温度场的增量的方法,并结合常规探空资料同化,针对影响华南地区的一次冷空气过程的个例,分析了常规观测资料对初始场的影响。采用GRAPES区域中尺度模式进行了控制试验和同化试验,观测资料的检验表明,资料同化对GRAPES中尺度模式预报有正面影响,初始时刻预报敏感性较大并且变化较快,靠近地面的低层预报敏感性较为复杂,常规探空资料对高层大气预报能力的提高相对于中低层较小。     

一个海气耦合环流模式中的ENSO循环特征及控制机理

本文利用中科院大气所两层全球大气环流模式和十四层热带太平洋模式的耦合环流模式１００年积分中的后３０年的月平均输出资料,通过分析海表面温度、上层海洋热容量和海表面高度异常的年际变化,揭示了模式ＥＮＳＯ循环（包括其产生、发展、成熟和消亡过程）的特征及其控制机理。结果表明,控制本文耦合环流模式中ＥＮＳＯ循环的机理是“时滞振子”模态,这和由中间复杂程度耦合模式得到的ＥＮＳＯ控制机理是一致的。反映了“时滞振     

THE UNDERSTANDING OF ENSO CYCLE MECHANISM AND ENSO POTENTIAL PREDICTION ABILITY

In recent years,the dynamic coupled models of ocean-atmosphere and statistical models havebeen used in routine operation for issuing long-lead forecasts.The dynamic coupled models consistof models with varying degrees of complexity,ranging from simplified coupled models of theshallow water to coupled general circulation models.During the period of 1980—1992,somemodels performed considerably better than the persistence forecast on predicting typical indices ofENSO for lead time of 6 to 12 months.It seems that ENSO is predictable at least one year inadvance.However.nearly all the models have lost their skill of forecasting sea surface temperature(SST)changes in the eastern equatorial Pacific since 1992.It is a challenge not only to the dynamicmodels but also to the understanding of the ENSO cycle mechanism.This paper examines multipletime-space scales of the ocean-atmosphere interactions and potential prediction ability of ENSOevent by using data analysis and model study.