20世纪以来美国树木生长响应气候变化敏感度的时空差异

树木生长响应气候变化的敏感度是全球变化研究的重要内容。利用20世纪以来美国本土1058个样本点的树轮宽度指数和温度、降水数据,通过相关分析,揭示了树木生长速率年际变化响应气候变化敏感度的时空差异。研究发现：① 美国树木径向生长速率与温度普遍负相关、与降水普遍正相关,绝大多数地区树木生长受水分条件限制。② 径向生长速率对温度和降水响应敏感度呈现一定的季节差异,最敏感的季节因地区而异,这主要与不同月份温度、降水条件差异导致的水分条件变化有关。同时,径向生长速率对温度、降水响应敏感度还随着气候条件变化而变化,随着年平均温度升高（降低）,径向生长速率与温度的负相关逐渐增强（减弱）,随着年降水增加（减少）,与降水的正相关强度逐渐减弱（增强）。     

An analysis of seasonal biases in satellite and reanalysis rainfall products in the Savannah River basin

Satellite-based precipitation data are a viable source of information in data-sparse regions and are particularly valuable for hydrological modelling applications. Several studies of satellite-based precipitation focus on monthly or greater timescales, but a relatively fewer number have been done on the daily or sub-daily scales. Also, biases in satellite-based precipitation data are often region-specific and such information is important for quantifying input errors in hydrological models. Our study builds upon these needs by examining biases in daily precipitation data for a watershed in the southeastern United States. We observed biases that occur seasonally and by magnitude. Seasonally, precipitation correlates well in most seasons but summer, likely due to the sporadic nature of convective precipitation that is a common precipitation mechanism in this region during the summer. Daily precipitation biases are around 5?mm, but the sign of the bias varies by season, with positive biases in all seasons but fall. Additionally, we found that satellite-based data tend to overestimate light precipitation relative to the multi-gauge average, which more often records no precipitation.     

Characteristics of Autumn Precipitation Trends in the Northeastern United States

Previous research has shown that the northeastern United States experienced a significant increase in precipitation during the twentieth century, especially during the autumn. This shift toward wetter conditions can be explained by examining trends in daily precipitation characteristics. Early season precipitation changes in the western portion of the study area were associated with increases in the frequency of precipitation‐days. Later in the season a coincident increase in precipitation‐day intensity enhanced these trends. Tropical storms had little influence on autumn precipitation increases. The study suggests that, instead, changes in regional atmospheric circulation may be responsible for changing precipitation characteristics.     

A SYNOPTIC CLIMATOLOGY OF EXTREME UNSEASONABLE FLOODS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, 1950–1990

Unseasonable floods are floods that occur in the season of lowest flood frequency, or dry season. Such floods pose a unique problem to flood planners and forecasters, yet little research has investigated the physical processes associated with unseasonable floods. The purpose of this study is to construct a synoptic climatology of extreme unseasonable floods for the southeastern United States. Results indicate that the types of storms creating unseasonable floods are location specific, with four unique regions across the study area: Carolina (tropical storms/hurricanes), Georgia Coastal Plain (Gulf depressions), Gulf-Atlantic (frontal), and Tennessee (frontal with upper-air enhancement). The precipitation created by these storms is low to moderate, rarely exceeding the 10-year 24-hour storm total. The precipitation levels suggest that a combination of meteorological conditions and land-surface conditions create the extreme events. A statistical analysis indicates that high soil-moisture levels combine with the moderate rains to produce extreme unseasonable floods. [Key words: unseasonable floods, synoptic climatology, land-surface conditions, southeastern United States.]     

美国山地降水量垂直分布的研究

根据美国西部山地资料,依据宏观地理因素和局地海拔高度因素从各种气候区域和不同纬度上选择典型坡地研究了降水的垂直分布规律。     

CLIMATIC RESPONSE IN TREE RINGS OF LOBLOLLY PINE FROM NORTH GEORGIA

The relationship between climate and tree-growth for loblolly pine in north Georgia is investigated by: 1) determining during which months climate has its strongest impact on loblolly pine growth, and 2) specifically examining the relationship between loblolly pine growth and growing season precipitation. Response function analyses indicate that precipitation during the current May-August period has a positive effect on pine growth, while the previous growing season shows no significant effect on growth. Significant negative effects of temperature were found during the previous June and August, current April, and the current June-September period. A regression model predicting the May-September growing season rainfall total as a function of tree-ring indices was highly significant (r² = 0.48). These results indicate that loblolly pine is a useful species for investigating the impact of climate and other factors on the recent decline of pine growth in the southeastern United States. [Key words: Dendroclimatology, tree rings, loblolly pine, Georgia.]     

Examining the Variability of Crossing Times for Canadian Trucks at the Three Major Canada–U.S. Border Crossings

Land borders connecting Canada and the United States are vital transportation facilities for the two countries. Truck crossing times at these facilities can have a significant impact on the performance of the economy. To date, knowledge about border crossing times has been limited due to lack of detailed data on the Canadian border. This article explores and models the patterns of crossing times at the three major land crossings connecting Canada to the United States: Ambassador Bridge, Blue Water Bridge, and Peace Bridge. The analysis is based on 387,775 border crossing truck trips that were generated between Canada and the United States over a course of twelve months. Seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) models are estimated to evaluate the seasonal and hourly crossing times of Canada- and U.S.-bound trips on each border crossing, controlling for traffic intensity in the models. The SUR modeling approach is chosen to control for potential cross-model correlations. The results suggest that crossing times at the border vary by season and hour of the day. Crossing times also vary by direction of traffic and by type of day (i.e., weekday vs. weekend). Traffic intensity has a significant influence on crossing times at two of the crossings but not the Blue Water Bridge. Finally, crossing times are more variable during the summer season and tend to be higher during the late evening hours and past midnight.     

Historical and Projected Climate Trends Along the Appalachian Trail,USA, and the Implications for Trail Usage

Recent climate analyses indicate that average global temperature is rising and both global drought occurrence and precipitation intensity are increasing. The nature of climate change is unique to each location, and its impact, both positive and negative, is predicted to be widespread. One area to be potentially affected includes management and use of outdoor natural resources such as the Appalachian Trail (AT), a 3500 km continuous hiking trail in the eastern United States. Observed historical (1895-2008) and projected future (to 2099) seasonal temperature and precipitation trends were examined along the AT. The AT has generally warmed since 1895, with greater warming occurring more recently. The warming has been greatest in the northern part of the AT and during winter. Precipitation trends show wide spatial variation depending upon the season, but generally precipitation has increased more in the northern than southern AT. Temperature and precipitation are projected to increase for all regions during all seasons in the future. Implications of these changes are discussed with respect to hiker experience and trail management.     

PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY EXPANDS TO FOUR ISSUES A YEAR IN 1986

The interannual variability in warm-season soil-moisture deficits were examined for the Southern United States from 1895-2005. Moisture deficit values are computed using the Thornthwaite/Mather water budget technique. Five soil-moisture deficit regions were identified, each has a distinct pattern and magnitude of deficit. No long-term trends were evident but considerable interannual variability is observed. Severe deficits across the South are associated with high potential evapotranspiration in addition to reduced rainfall. The reduced precipitation across the region is associated with a decrease in frequency rather than any change in intensity. The role of atmospheric indices on affecting deficits, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration was explored. In particular, the Bermuda High and PNA indices show the strongest correlations with soil-moisture deficits during the warm season.     

SYNOPTIC CONTROL OF REGIONAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN THE COTERMINOUS UNITED STATES BETWEEN 1949 AND 1981

Regional patterns of January and mean annual temperature change between 1949 and 1981 are compared with regional changes in January precipitation totals and related to upper-level atmospheric circulation. During cold periods, cooling is concentrated in the eastern United States and is associated with a southward shift in the zone of maximum precipitation in the eastern United States (reflecting the mean position of the polar front jet), and with a strengthening of meridional flow aloft. During this same period, enhanced meridionality yields an increase in temperatures in the Pacific Northwest, associated with amplification of the mean long wave ridge over the Rocky Mountains. Warm periods in the eastern United States, conversely, correlate with a stronger zonal flow aloft (resulting in cooler, wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest). Accordingly, temporal variation in regional temperature trends may be more readily interpreted as responses to synoptic controls which yield departures of opposite sign in locales influenced by ridges vs. troughs, rather than as a reflection of uniform, progressive hemispheric or global temperature change.     

SYNOPTIC-SCALE VARIABILITY IN THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UNITED STATES

A synoptic-scale climatology of precipitation amounts from thunderstorms was developed by analysis of amounts from individual storms for 220 stations in the conterminous United States for the period 1948-1977. The probability of having a thunderstorm without rainfall was assessed for each station. For storms which did produce precipitation, the probability distribution of amounts was found to be well summarized by the incomplete gamma distribution. Sets of seasonal maps of the probability of receiving any measurable amount, less than 4 mm, and more than 20 mm of precipitation are presented. Consistent spatial patterns are found. Thunder without precipitation is most likely in the west. The greatest probability of heavy precipitation occurs along the Gulf Coast, extending in the summer throughout the mid-section of the nation. Topographic effects are apparent, with mountainous areas generally having less intense precipitation than surrounding regions. [Key World: thunderstorms, precipitation probabilities, gamma distribution.]     

A SYNOPTIC CLIMATOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF SUMMERTIME PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES

The spatial patterns of precipitation frequency and intensity over the eastern United States for summer from 1961 to 1990 are analyzed using a recently developed continental-scale air mass-based synoptic classification. This procedure, the spatial synoptic classification (SSC), is based on “seed” day identification of synoptic events and discriminant analysis to group together days that are within the same air-mass type. Results show differences in the types of precipitation associated with different air masses. Two air masses in particular-Moist Tropical and Moist Temperate-appear to be highly correlated with a majority of the precipitation, particularly in the southeast. The synoptic characteristics, daily intensity of rainfall, and radiosonde soundings during prevalence of these two air masses suggest that convective rainfall is common during Moist Tropical, and stratiform-type rainfall occurs during Moist Temperate. A simple stratification scheme based upon a synoptic-based air-mass delineation may be useful for studies that need to divide days into stratiform or convective regimes.     

A SYNOPTIC CLIMATOLOGY OF NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TORNADOES

This study documents the spatial and temporal characteristics of northeast United States tornadoes and the synoptic patterns associated with their development. Daily 1200 UTC surface pressure, 500 mb height and 850 mb temperature data are used in a compositing analysis to indicate the general conditions on tornado-producing days during four quasi-seasonal periods. Temporally, two-thirds of all northeast tornadoes occur between the hours of 1800 UTC and 0000 UTC. Annually, greater than 75% occur during the four-month period from May through August. During the period of study (1950 through 1986) the region had an average of 30 tornado occurrences per year. Spatially, three preferred areas of tornadic development are identified across the northeast region. These areas include western and southeastern Pennsylvania and north-central Massachusetts. The general synoptic patterns associated with tornadic events in the northeast United States remain consistent throughout the year. The composite analyses indicate that the presence of a strong surface low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes, coupled with significant upper-level divergence associated with a vigorous shortwave feature and a cold frontal boundary, are the synoptic features most common during the initiation of tornadic storms in this region. [Key words: synoptic climatology, tornadoes, northeastern United States.]     

REGIONAL-SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES: TEMPORAL CLIMATOLOGY,TELECONNECTIONS, AND CLIMATIC IMPACT

Regional-scale middle- and upper-tropospheric troughing over the southwestern United States represents a departure from the modal circulation pattern for western North America. Once developed, southwestern troughs often are associated with positive vorticity advection aloft, surface cyclone formation, and moisture advection over areas of the western Great Plains and Intermountain West. These trough systems may play an important role in the precipitation climatology of the western and central United States. However, very little work has focused on the temporal climatology, developmental characteristics, or climatic impacts of southwestern troughs. This study provides a detailed climatology of southwestern troughing that focuses on: (1) the temporal frequency of these events; (2) the teleconnective circulation changes that are associated with their development; and (3) the importance of these systems in the precipitation climatology of the western and central United States.

The temporal climatology of southwestern troughs reveals that most of these systems occur during spring and autumn, with somewhat fewer events in winter and very few events in summer. An examination of 500-mb geopotential height and 24-hr height change composites during trough development shows that much of the wave-train activity that accompanies trough onset is limited to the North Pacific and North American regions. These changes are characterized by the amplification and eastward movement of a ridge/trough couplet over the eastern Pacific, which is preceded by synoptic-scale transient wave activity over the western and central Pacific. While southwestern troughs occur less than 30% of the time, southwestern trough-derived precipitation comprises over 60% of the monthly totals for some sites.     

Precipitation and Temperature Estimation Error at Alpine Treeline Ecotones Using the Mountain Climate Simulator Model (MT-CLIM)

In order to improve modeling of alpine treeline responses to climate change, estimations of snowfall at treeline sites are needed. The MT-CLIM climate model was evaluated for this purpose by extrapolating precipitation and temperature from standard weather stations at lower elevations to 30 alpine SNOTEL study sites across the western United States. Quantification of the topography between the base stations and the SNOTEL sites was used in inverse distance weighting and compared to straight-line weighting. The predicted temperature and precipitation under different weighting methods were compared to observed data over three months during the winter of 2006-2007. The errors were mapped and their spatial pattern analyzed. Error patterns indicate strong gradients, particularly in the Pacific Northwest, that are suggestive of areas where additional characteristics of atmosphere-land interactions and boundary layer climatology need to be considered in modeling applications.     

INTERANNUAL TO INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS OF THE REGIONALIZED SURFACE CLIMATE OF THE UNITED STATES AND RELATIONSHIPS TO GENERALIZED FLOW PARAMETERS

This analysis attempts to discern primary causes of interannual and interdecadal climate variations for precipitation and temperature regions of the conterminous United States. Varimax rotated principal components analysis of annual climate division data is used in the derivation of nine precipitation and five temperature regions. Each region's time series is examined for underlying linear trends, representing long-term climate change, and tests for variance changes, to determine regional climate variability shifts. The first six precipitation components, representing the entire eastern half of the country and the Northwest, displayed significant temporal increases. Of these, four displayed significant increases in interannual variability through time. For temperature, only the Southwestern region showed a significant change (increase) through time. However, significant reductions in temperature variability were confirmed for three regions. To determine the causes of the derived climate shifts, correlation analysis was performed with various atmospheric teleconnection indices. Precipitation trends are most strongly associated with variations in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) at the interannual time scale while interdecadal variations are associated more with variations in the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection. Both interannual and interdecadal variations of regional temperature are most strongly related to the PNA, except for the Southwest, which showed a significant correlation to the SOI. This suggests that El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are the source for much of the precipitation change evident in the eastern and Northwestern United States and temperature change in the Southwest. [Key words: climate change, precipitation, temperature, El Niño, Southern Oscillation, United States climate.]     

TWENTIETH-CENTURY CLIMATE ANOMALY PATTERNS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES

Winter precipitation anomaly patterns between 1911 and 1977 over the southwestern United States are investigated by empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The first four EOFs explain 74% of the total variance in the original data assemblages. The first three were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. The spatial distribution of the coefficients and the time plots of the amplitudes of the first two EOFs indicate that the first three decades of the study period, identified as encompassing the most anomalously warm decades in the western Untied States this century, was a period when negative precipitation anomalies predominated in the Great Basin and in the upper Colorado and Green River basins, but positive anomalies predominated in the lower Colorado and the Colorado Plateau region of Arizona. In the early 1950s not only was there a hiatus in winter precipitation distribution, but the earlier anomaly patterns reversed to a predominantly wet northern section and a predominantly drier south. This hiatus in anomaly patterns coincided with the change to increased meridionality in upper tropospheric circulation patterns. These results, when viewed in the light of those from Euler et al. (1979), Wigley, Jones and Kelly (1980), Williams (1980) and Jäger and Kellogg (1983), support a strong case for an anomalously warm Southwest during strong hemispheric and hence Arctic warming and therefore a predominance of the anomaly patterns exemplified by the first two EOFs. The third EOF depicts the influence of physiography and the nature and trajectory of precipitation-inducing systems in winter on the variance pattern. The spatial distributions of the EOFs raise questions about the inferential use of surrogate data for environmental reconstruction in the presence of anomaly patterns that lead to nonsynchroneity in the response of samples in time and space. Power spectra of the amplitudes of the first three EOFs show the biennial oscillation and oscillations with periodicities greater than 30 years to be significant at the 95% confidence level on a white noise continuum.     

Seasonal Response of Mean Monthly Streamflow to El Niño/Southern Oscillation in North Central Florida

The southeastern United States, including Florida, has been identified as a region of homogeneous response to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic anomaly, in which mean monthly precipitation and discharge during winter is above or below normal following the onset of the warm (El Niño) or cold (La Niña) phase of ENSO, respectively. However, this understanding of the response is expanded through a study of the effects of the ENSO phenomenon on the probability distributions of mean monthly streamflows of the Santa Fe river. The Santa Fe river basin is situated between one region, which experiences the greatest proportion of annual streamflow during winter, and another where the largest percentage of annual flow occurs during late summer. The basin experiences both winter and summer peaks in precipitation and (subsequent) streamflow and may therefore display responses to ENSO during each season. A two-parameter lognormal distribution is employed to model these streamflows during warm and cold phases of ENSO. Increases in both the mean and the variance detected during warm phase winters are compatible with previous observations. Increases in variance apparent during cold phase summers have not been previously identified. These results, which have considerable bearing upon predictions of high and low flow probabilities during the year, suggest that the response in streamflow is not spatially homogeneous across the state.     

SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF MIDTROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CLIMATE IN THE UNITED STATES DURING ENSO WINTERS

Numerous studies have documented that the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern is the dominant extratropical response to ENSO forcing affecting the circulation over North America. However, the PNA is not the sole pattern that occurs during ENSO events. This study identifies the dominant synoptic circulation patterns and associated temperature and precipitation departures that occur during ENSO winters. Using standardized departures of 500 mbar heights over North America and the North Pacific Ocean, a subjective classification of the anomaly maps for winter months identified as warm ENSO events identifies three basic categories of 500 mbar standardized anomaly patterns: Variations of the PNA pattern, the reverse PNA pattern, and patterns with no PNA signature. Composite standardized anomaly maps of the synoptic categories of 500 mbar heights as well as composites of standardized temperature and precipitation departures for the contiguous United States were constructed. Three variations of the PNA, accounting for nearly half of the ENSO winters, are presented, identifying various configurations of the 500 mbar anomaly field and their effect on precipitation and temperature distribution. Similar composites are presented for reverse PNA and non-PNA winters. [Key words: climatology, climate change, El Nińo/Southern Oscillation, troposphere.]     

珠江流域多尺度极端降水时空特征及影响因子研究

基于珠江流域74个气象站点1952~2013年逐日降水和气温数据,采用POT抽样、Mann-Kendall（MK）趋势检验、泊松回归等方法,从降水量级、降水频率及发生时间等方面系统分析了珠江流域年、雨季及旱季3个时间尺度上的极端降水特征,并从降水对温度变化响应及ENSO影响等角度,探讨了极端降水变化特征的机理。研究表明：① 珠江流域极端降水年内分布不均,多发于4~9月,其中6月份发生频率最高;② 珠江流域极端降水频率在雨季及年际间分布较为均匀。但在旱季,珠三角地区极端降水在不同年份差异性较大;③ 在雨季及年际尺度上,极端降水年序列趋势性并不显著;而相对干旱季节,极端降雨量级、发生频次均随年份增加呈显著上升趋势,且发生时间提前。珠江流域农业以水稻(Oryzasativa)种植为主,旱季极端降水增加易导致冬汛及其引起的作物倒伏与农田渍涝等灾害,同时对秋冬防洪提出新的挑战,需要引起人们的关注;④ 温度升高和ENSO事件对珠江流域极端降水过程有显著影响。从ENSO影响的角度讲,在厄尔尼诺年,珠江流域西部极端降水量级和频率增加,而流域东部沿海区域极端降水量级减少,时间延后。