基于家庭区位需求的城市住房价格模拟分析

目前关于城市住房价格异质性和影响因素研究多侧重于空间位置分析,从城市系统角度刻画住房价格分异现象有待进一步探索。根据“土地利用—交通相互作用理论”,城市空间的发展过程是各类活动通过交通相互作用的过程,本文构建了交通可达性模型,综合全市经济活动空间分布和交通网络评价城市区位条件,并以北京为例,从就业、教育、消费、医疗服务等各方面评价了城市区位条件,在此基础上依据家庭成员结构,模拟分析了家庭区位需求对住房价格的影响。案例研究表明,本模型对房价的模拟可以在全市范围内达到很好的效果;家庭的区位选择决定着住房价格的空间格局;各类活动中就业对北京市房价分布影响最为显著,其次是消费、教育,而医疗服务对住房价格影响相对较弱。此外,本文所提出的模型系统阐述了城市经济活动分布格局对住房价格的影响,经济活动分布发生变化时模拟结果随之变化,因此,本模型可以进一步拓展用于“以业带人”政策实验,模拟分析疏散各类经济活动后住房价格的变化,也为城市房价及土地市场分析研究提供模型方法上的参考。     

信息技术时代的企业区位研究(英文)

The wide application of information and communication technologies(ICTs) has been argued to be critical to spatial transformation of firms.Recent advances in the studies along this line have challenged traditional location theory.The existing literature,however,focuses mainly on the impacts of ICTs on locational conditions and industrial spatial distribution.The dynamics behind such changes have not yet been given sufficient attention by geographers.Given this background,this paper investigates the impact of new ICTs on traditional location theory and the dynamics of industrial re-location that are enabled by new ICTs,based on data collected from an investigation of 178 firms.The paper argues that the application of new ICTs has been a key location factor in the information age,and that the time-cost is becoming critical to the spatial organization of firms,particularly as a result of a shorter product life and mass customization,among other dynamics.     

基于变权组合预测模型探讨中国煤炭需求(英文)

变权组合预测是对各个单项预测模型在各时点上赋予适当权重进行组合,而权重是随预测时间变化的函数。该方法具有较高的预测精度和预测稳定性,能比较合理地描述系统的客观现实。本文依据1981-2008年的中国煤炭需求历史数据及对煤炭需求的影响因素,分别建立灰色系统、多元回归两个单项预测模型,构建了中国煤炭需求的变权组合预测模型,对中国未来12年煤炭需求进行了预测。     

中国资源枯竭城市的区位条件（英文）

Numerous domestic scholars have argued that a remote location is the major factor preventing the transformation and sustainable development of resource-exhausted cities. Research to date, however, has not presented relevant evidence to support this hypothesis or explained how to identify the concept of ‘remoteness'. Resource-exhausted cities designated by the State Council of China were examined in this study alongside the provincial capital cities that contain such entities and three regional central cities that are closely connected to this phenomenon: Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. Spatial and temporal distances are used to calculate and evaluate the location remoteness degrees(LRDs) of resource-exhausted cities, in terms of both resource types and regions. The results indicate that resource-exhausted cities are indeed remote from the overall samples. Based on spatial distances, the LRDs are α_1 = 1.36(i.e., distance to provincial capital city) and β_1 = 1.14(i.e., distance to regional central city), but when based on temporal distances, α_2 = 2.02(i.e., distance to provincial capital city) and β_2 = 1.44(i.e., distance to regional central city). Clear differences are found in the LRDs between different regions and resource types, with those in western China and forest industrial cities the most obviously remote. Finally, the numbers of very remote resource-exhausted cities based on spatial and temporal distances(i.e.,α 1.5 ∩β 1.5) are 14 and 19, respectively, encompassing 17.9% and 24.4% of the total sampled. Similarly, 25 and 30 not remote resource-exhausted cities based on spatial and temporal distances(i.e.,α≤1.0 ∩β≤ 1.0) encompass 32.1% and 38.5% of the total, respectively. This study provided supporting information for the future development and policy making for resource-exhausted cities given different LRDs.     

基于家庭的城市居民出行需求理论与验证模型

西方的城市居民出行需求研究已经由基于出行的分析转向基于活动的分析, 而国内的相关研究几乎空白, 特别是基于家庭的分析。基于出行的交通需求理论在交通规划中的不足, 强调活动分析法的理论基础和应用优势, 提出了基于家庭的活动-移动行为的理论并进行模 型验证。采用天津市居民时间利用日志调查的第一手数据, 以家庭为研究单元, 建立结构方 程模型, 在解读天津市民工作日的活动-移动模式的基础上, 验证了基于家庭的活动分析法 的理论。结果表明, 出行来源于相应的活动参与, 且活动分析法很好地解决了四阶段法等基 于出行的模型的一些不足。男女家长之间存在明显的活动-移动联系, 并且在非工作活动上存在联合参与行为。在考虑活动和家庭成员的间接效应时, 社会经济属性对居民出行时间的的总体效应和直接效应显著程度不一, 验证了基于家庭的活动分析法在出行行为研究上比传统基于出行的分析更加全面和深入。     

西北地区30地级市城市区位分析

以西北地区30地级市为研究对象,通过时间距离计算,运用区位偏远度衡量地理区位;采用经济联系强度模型分析其经济区位条件;基于改进的区位优势潜力模型对各市综合区位予以定量化测度。结果表明:(1)对于最邻近省会城市,30地市偏远度都<1,均处于不偏远区位;对北京而言,偏远程度介于0.263~2.446之间,其中12地市处于偏远区域;综合偏远度表明,处于偏远(δ>1)、不偏远(0.5δ≤1)、很不偏远(0<δ≤0.5)区位的城市比重分别为13.33%、53.33%、33.33%。(2)经济联系量表现出如下特点:30地市内部联系远远高于与北京的联系,其联系总量所占比重为99.47%和0.53%;除青海省,其他4省内部联系程度强于外部;以省为单位,经济总量大体沿着自东向西的方向递减。(3)陕西省经济区位明显表现出以西安、咸阳为中心的环形圈层结构,自内而外经济联系强度渐弱。(4)综合地理偏远度、经济区位和综合区位,30地市可大致分为"双优型"、"(偏)地理区位滞后型"、"(偏)经济区位滞后型"和"双滞后型" 4种类型。     

基于DEA模型的中国城市资源环境效率评价(英文)

本研究以全国地级以上城市为实证数据,试图刻画我国城市资源-环境效率的空间差异并分析影响这一空间格局的主要因素。研究中采用数据包络分析法(DEA),对全国285个城市的资源-环境效率进行了评价。结果表明,城市平均资源-环境效率指数为0.6381,该指数的分解结果表明城市的纯技术效率指数为0.6964,低于规模效率指数0.9225。对城市资源-环境效率影响因素的回归分析结果表明,城市资源-环境效率与城市收入水平呈U形关系。经济增长可以通过三个渠道影响城市的资源-环境效率:规模效应(包括人口规模和城市化水平)、经济结构效应以及空间效应。城市资源-环境效率的提高并不是自然发生的,而需依赖于技术创新和有效管治等手段。因此各级政府、企业和组织必须实施一系列应对措施才能确保城市的高效发展。     

熵视角下的广州城市生态系统可持续发展能力分析(英文)

The urban ecosystem possesses dissipating structures that can absorb substances and energy from the external environment and export products and wastes to maintain order within the system. Given these circumstances, this paper analyzed the ability of the urban ecosystem in Guangzhou City to sustain development from the perspective of entropy. The research was carried out in three steps. First, an evaluation index system that considers the ability of the urban ecosystem for sustainable development was formed based on the structures and functions of the urban ecosystem and the change in the entropy of the urban socioeconomic ecosystem. Second, the sustainable development ability assessment model for the urban ecosystem was built using information entropy. Last, by combining the time series variation of the evaluation indicators with the entropy weights, this paper analyzed the influence of the combined factors on the sustainable development ability of the urban ecosystem in Guangzhou and suggested some measures to promote the sustainable development of the urban ecosystem in Guangzhou. The conclusions of this study can be summarized as follows: (1) The urban ecosystem has developed in an orderly and healthy direction, with effective control over the urban environmental pollution problems in Guangzhou between 2004 and 2010. (2) The sustainable development ability of the urban ecosystem had been on an upward trend in Guangzhou during the study period. The ability of the natural urban ecosystem to support the urban socioeconomic ecosystem increased continuously, and the improved ecoenvironment enhanced the harmony and vitality of the urban ecosystem in Guangzhou.     

基于住房需求意愿的广州市中产阶层住房区位选择

以2014年广州市中产阶层聚居区24个街道、50个社区进行的问卷调查和深度访谈资料为数据源,从住房需求意愿与区位选择方面分析了广州中产阶层住房选择,并运用多元Logistic回归分析法对其影响因素进行研究。研究发现：1）广州市中产阶层住房区位选择表现出明显的“向中心城区”性;2）现居住现状（人均住房面积、现小区区位、现小区建成年代、现居住时间）、家庭生命周期（年龄、家庭规模、子女数量）和经济水平（家庭年总收入、个人年总收入、私家车拥有量）等因素对中产阶层住房需求意愿具有显著影响;3）家庭生命周期（年龄、家庭规模）、个体因素（教育程度、户籍地）等要素对中产阶层住房区位选择具有显著影响。4）制度因素、区位因素和个体因素共同影响着广州市中产阶层住房区位选择。     

武汉城市圈城市区位与可达性分析

武汉1+8 城市圈担负着“中部崛起”的重任,在国家经济发展过程中具有举足轻重的地位。本文从空间格局 角度,结合最新的行政区划、基础地理数据库及其统计资料,利用GIS 空间分析方法,对武汉城市圈内部各城市区 位和交通可达性进行了定量分析。结果表明,与全省其他县市相比,目前武汉城市圈内各城市具有明显区位优势。 在圈内8 个地级市当中,孝感市具有最高的区位指标,而潜江、仙桃、天门等三个省直辖市区位指标较低。城市圈各 城市出行时距沿高速公路与国道以及各级道路呈放射状延伸。城市圈内城市间基本实现2 小时可达。武汉和孝感 市拥有最高的出行时距增长速率,天门、黄石和咸宁市出行时距增长速率较低,迫切需要加强其周边交通网络基础 设施的建设。     

开封市不同功能区城市土壤有机碳含量与密度分析(英文)

Urban soil, forming along with the development of city, has unique properties of soil organic carbon. On the basis of field investigation and laboratory analysis, soil organic carbon (SOC) of Kaifeng city was studied, and the results showed that the characteristics of SOC were different not only among function districts in urban area, but also between urban area and suburbs. The order of SOC in topsoil was industrial district > recreational district > traffic district > cultural/educational district > residential/administrative district. The density of soil organic carbon (SOCD) in both topsoil and profile followed the orders of recreational district >industrial district > traffic district>cultural/educational district > residential/adminis- trative district, and cultural/educational district > traffic district>industrial district>recreational district > administrative/residential district, respectively. SOCD in both topsoil and profile decreased along the transection line from urban area to suburbs and urban area had 2.53-fold more SOCD in topsoil and 1.56-fold more SOCD in profile than suburbs, respectively. SOC decreased with the depth and was mainly distributed within the scope of 0-30 cm. The variances of SOC in urban area were more complicated than that in suburbs.     

基于MODIS数据的2000-2005年东北亚草地NPP模拟(英文)

The net primary production(NPP)of grasslands in northeastern Asia was estimated using improved CASA model with MODIS data distributed from 2000 and ground data as driving variables from 2000 to 2005.Average annual NPP was 146.05 g C m-2yr -1and average annual total NPP was 0.32 Pg C yr-1in all grasslands during the period.It was shown that average annual grassland NPP in the whole northeastern Asia changed dramatically from 2000 to 2005,with the highest value of 174.80 g C m-2yr-1in 2005 and the lowest valu...     

基于土地供需关系对北京城市拓展中土地资源约束条件的初步分析(英文)

土地资源作为重要的自然环境载体,对城市发展既起到了支撑作用,同时也会制约城市的盲目扩张。本文以北京市为例,从供给与需求两方面,总结了北京城市发展的土地资源约束特征,初步测算了其城市空间的上限规模。一方面,分析了产业用地和生活居住用地等土地资源需求主导因素的特征和变化趋势,基于不同的土地利用效率情景,初步测算得出北京城市发展对土地资源的需求规模区间为[1596 km2,2846 km2]。另一方面通过分析北京地区农业空间、生态空间及其他用地空间的占用、消耗特征,测算得出不同情景下土地资源对北京城市发展的供给规模区间为[1673 km2,2821 km2]。可以看出,当前北京城市发展的土地需求明显大于供给。同时指出了未来北京城市拓展受到土地资源供给的总量约束、空间约束及城市功能定位决定的用地结构性约束等限制。最后尝试提出解决当前城市发展面临的资源环境瓶颈和城市病等问题的思路。     

基于理论模型与美国经验证据的城市增长序贯模式(英文)

City growth patterns are attracting more attention in urban geography studies. This paper examines how cities develop and grow in the upper tail of size distribution in a large-scale economy based on a theoretical model under new economic geography framework and the empirical evidence from the US. The results show that cities grow in a sequential pattern. Cities with the best economic conditions are the first to grow fastest until they reach a critical size, then their growth rates slow down and the smaller cities farther down in the urban hierarchy become the fastest-growing ones in sequence. This paper also reveals three related features of urban system. First, the city size distribution evolves from low-level balanced to primate and finally high-level balanced pattern in an inverted U-shaped path. Second, there exist persistent discontinuities, or gaps, between city size classes. Third, city size in the upper tail exhibits conditional convergence characteristics. This paper could not only contribute to enhancing the understanding of urbanization process and city size distribution dynamics, but also be widely used in making effective policies and scientific urban planning.     

华北平原降水的长期趋势分析(英文)

The North China Plain (NCP) is the most important food grain producing area in China and has suffered from serious water shortages. To capture variation water availability, it is necessary to have an analysis of changing trends in precipitation. This study, based on daily precipitation data from 47 representative stations in NCP records passed the homogeneity test, analyzed the trend and amplitude of variation in monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation, annual maximum continuous no-rain days, annual rain days, rainfall intensity, and rainfall extremes from 1960 to 2007, using the MannKendall (M-K) test and Sen’s slope estimator. It was found that monthly precipitation in winter had a significant increasing trend in most parts, while monthly precipitation in July to September showed a decreasing trend in some parts of NCP. No significant changing trend was found for the annual, dry and wet season precipitation and rainfall extremes in the majority of NCP.A significant decreasing trend was detected for the maximum no-rain duration and annual rain days in the major part of NCP. It was concluded that the changing trend of precipitation in NCP had an apparent seasonal and regional pattern, i.e., precipitation showed an obvious increasing trend in winter, but a decreasing trend in the rainy season (July to September), and the changing trend was more apparent in the northern part than in the southern and middle parts. This implies that with global warming, seasonal variation of precipitation in NCP tends to decline with an increasing of precipitation in winter season, and a decreasing in rainy season, particularly in the sub-humid northern part.     

基于InVEST模型的西苕溪流域产水量分析(英文)

流域产水量的计算与分析对水资源的规划、管理以及水库建设具有重要意义。本研究将InVEST中的产水量模型应用于西苕溪小流域。该模型的数据需求主要包括土地利用/覆被,年均降雨量和潜在蒸发散,土壤深度,植被可利用水量。为验证模型的精确度,利用基期的降水径流关系,得到2003-2007年的平均自然径流量。经过反复校验,当Z系数为6.5时,产水量为8.3亿m3,与自然径流量最为接近,从流域产水量的分布来看,南部和西南部地区单位面积的产水量较高。     

面向“多样化联系空间”的企业区位选择——基于SGWR模型的城市微区位分析

文章引入“多样化联系空间”视角,使得空间附着了更多的社会、经济、制度和文化等内涵,并以此作为城市微区位和企业区位选择的空间基础。理论上,企业在城市微区位的选址不仅是通过市场机制与经济因素发生,也特定于区位的经济、社会和地理的紧密交织及其交互作用,其理论机制是空间的多样化联系以“成本共担”的形式降低企业的生产成本和交易成本,从而引致企业的区位选择和空间集聚;并以深圳市的高新电子信息企业为例,应用OLS回归、地理加权回归（GWR）和半参数地理加权回归（SGWR）模型,对城市微区位、多样化联系与企业区位选择的耦合进行实证分析,结果显示城市微区位存在显著的空间异质性,且存在全局变量和局部变量的差别,这在一定程度上验证了城市微区位的多样性、异质性。     

书评(英文)

Surface Modeling: High Accuracy and High Speed Methods, CRC Press, published in 2011, 711 pp., hardcover, price 129.95$ This book, written by Tian-Xiang Yue, on surface modelling     

1990-2009年珠三角县域城市潜力的时空关联分析(英文)

According to the highway data and some socioeconomic data of 1990, 1994, 2000, 2005 and 2009 of county units in the Pearl River Delta, this paper measured urban integrated power of different counties in different years by factor analysis, and estimated each county’s potential in each year by means of expanded potential model. Based on that, the spatio-temporal association patterns and evolution of county potential were analyzed using spatio-temporal autocorrelation methods, and the validity of spatio-temporal association patterns was verified by comparing with spatial association patterns and cross-correlation function. The main results are shown as follows:(1) The global spatio-temporal association of county potential showed a positive effect during the study period. But this positive effect was not strong, and it had been slowly strengthened during 1994–2005 and decayed during 2005–2009. The local spatio-temporal association characteristics of most counties’ potential kept relatively stable and focused on a positive autocorrelation, however, there were obvious transformations in some counties among four types of local spatio-temporal association(i.e., HH, LL, HL and LH).(2) The distribution difference and its change of local spatio-temporal association types of county potential were obvious. Spatio-temporal HH type units were located in the central zone and Shenzhen-Dongguan region of the eastern zone, but the central spatio-temporal HH area shrunk to the Guangzhou-Foshan core metropolitan region only after 2000; the spatio-temporal LL area in the western zone kept relatively stable with a surface-shaped continuous distribution pattern, new LL type units emerged in the south-central zone since 2005, the eastern LL area expanded during 1994–2000, but then gradually shrunk and scattered at the eastern edge in 2009; the spatio-temporal HL and LH areas varied significantly.(3) The local spatio-temporal association patterns of county potential among the three zones presented significant disparity, and obvious difference between the eastern and central zones tended to decrease, whereas that between the western zone and the central and eastern zones further expanded.(4) Spatio-temporal autocorrelation methods can efficiently mine the spatio-temporal association patterns of county potential, and can better reveal the complicated spatio-temporal interaction between counties than ESDA methods.     

北京城市湿地时空演变及驱动力定量分析(英文)

The decision tree and the threshold methods have been adopted to delineate boundaries and features of water bodies from LANDSAT images. After a spatial overlay analysis and using a remote sensing technique and the wetland inventory data in Beijing, the water bodies were visually classified into different types of urban wetlands, and data on the urban wetlands of Beijing in 1986, 1991, 1996, 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2007 were obtained. Thirteen driving factors that affect wetland change were selected, and gray correlation analysis was employed to calculate the correlation between each driving factor and the total area of urban wetlands. Then, six major driving factors were selected based on the correlation coefficient, and the contribution rates of these six driving factors to the area change of various urban wetlands were calculated based on canonical correlation analysis. After that, this research analyzed the relationship and mechanism between the main driving factors and various types of wetlands. Five conclusions can be drawn. (1) The total area of surface water bodies in Beijing increased from 1986 to 1996, and gradually decreased from 1996 to 2007. (2) The areas of the river wetlands, water storage areas and pool and culture areas gradually decreased, and its variation tendency is consistent with that of the total area of wetlands. The area of the mining water areas and wastewater treatment plants slightly increased. (3) The six factors of driving forces are the annual rainfall, the evaporation, the quantity of inflow water, the volume of groundwater available, the urbanization rate and the daily average discharge of wastewater are the main factors affecting changes in the wetland areas, and they correlate well with the total area of wetlands. (4) The hydrologic indicators of water resources such as the quantity of inflow water and the volume of groundwater are the most important and direct driving forces that affect the change of the wetland area. These factors have a combined contribution rate of 43.94%. (5) Climate factors such as rainfall and evaporation are external factors that affect the changes in wetland area, and they have a contribution rate of 36.54%. (6) Human activities such as the urbanization rate and the daily average quantity of waste-water are major artificial driving factors. They have an influence rate of 19.52%.