长江南京潮水位站近百年高潮位变化特征及成因分析

为研究南京站多年来年最高潮位的变化特征,根据水文变异综合诊断方法,分析检验了长江南京站近百年高潮潮位变化的整体趋势;利用db N系列小波变换分析了年高潮潮位变化的局部趋势;利用复数Morlet小波分析了年最高潮位的周期变化规律。分析结果表明,南京站年最高潮位序列总体上无明显趋势变化,局部变化趋势明显;年最高潮位存在5a、11a、42a和63a时间尺度四个主要变化周期。分析结果为认识南京站年最高潮位变化、做好水安全工作以及水资源的开发利用提供相关依据。     

频率组合法分析黄浦江年最高潮位频率特征

黄浦江既是一条强感潮河流,又受上游太湖流域洪水的影响。随着海平面上升,长江口、黄浦江的整治以及上游太湖流域治理工程实施等因素影响,潮位资料系列的一致性遭到了破坏,给直接采用实测资料分析潮位特征带来困难。作为一种尝试,采用频率组合的方法来分析黄浦江年最高潮位的频率特征,取得了较好的分析研究成果。     

设计潮位过程线及其推求

针对现行推求设计潮位过程线方法中存在的不合理现象,在分析研究各潮汐要素之间的关系的基础上,提出根据高潮位(或低潮位)与潮差同频率控制放大的方法推求设计潮位过程线。结果表明,用该方法推算得到的设计潮位过程线比较符合实际,能较好地满足工程设计的防洪防潮标准,达到工程预期的效果。     

长江流域历史洪水的周期地理学研究

从周期地理学的角度,探讨长江历史洪水的频发特点和周期规律,认为影响长江历史洪水的基本周期因子,与近日点日月交食年周期、太阳黑子活动周期和历史气候周期等因素有较大的关联性。而近几个世纪以来长江洪水频率的不断加快,表明人类活动扰乱和改变了历史洪水原有的周期值,使长江历史洪水周期打上了人类活动的深刻烙印。     

频率组合分析黄浦江年最高潮位频率特征

黄浦江既是一条强感潮河流，又受上游太湖流域洪水的影响。随着海平面上升，长江口、黄浦江的整治以及上游太湖流域治理工作实施等因素影响，潮位资料系列的一致性遭到了破坏，给直接采用实测资料分析潮位特征带来困难。作为一种尝试，采用频率组合的方法来分析黄浦江年最高潮位的频率特征，取得了较好的分析研究成果。     

基于联合分布的珠江口设计潮位过程线方法研究

针对同倍比方法与同频率方法推求设计潮位过程线中的局限性,采用4种边际分布函数对珠江口年最高潮位与年最大潮差序列进行拟合的基础上,选取4种不同的二维Archimedean Copula函数建立珠江口年最高潮位与年最大潮差的联合分布,并分析了高潮位重现期与潮位过程同现重现期的线性关系。结果表明:高潮位与潮差的同现重现期总是大于相应边际分布的重现期,并且随着边际分布重现期的增大,同现重现期增幅也越大,说明较高重现期的高潮位与潮差同时发生的可能性很小;基于高潮位重现期与潮位过程同现重现期的线性关系,采用基于联合分布的方法推求珠江口潮位过程线,推求结果较同频率法更为合理。     

大洋河流域设计洪水及河口起点水位计算方法研究

根据大洋河流域规划设计,通过水文分析,计算大洋河河道各频率洪峰流量、分析洪水特性,由于邻近大洋河口的大鹿岛站为临时站,潮水位资料匮乏,因而把大东港站潮位资料作为本次潮水位设计的理论依据,同时计算不同频率潮位,将大鹿岛站作为大洋河河口的设计潮位,计算结果可知:发生20年和100年一遇洪水时,对应起点水位分别为4.22 m和4.51 m。计算结果可供相关规划设计部门参考。     

基于潮流数值模拟的设计潮位推算方法

针对一些拟建工程位于潮位不易观测地区的情况,提出了一种设计潮位的推算方法。首先,通过潮流数值计算,获得拟建工程地点一个月以上的短期潮位过程;其次,与临近的、具有长期实测资料的港口或验潮站的潮位进行同步相关分析,建立回归方程;最后,采用《海港水文规范》中的方法推算港口或验潮站的设计潮位,并将其由回归方程换算至拟建工程地点。通过算例的计算分析,表明本文方法是合理的、可行的。     

基于Copula函数的设计潮位过程要素组合风险分析

现行推求设计潮位过程大多采用高潮位与潮差同频率放大的方法,未考虑到二者遭遇可能性的大小。采用G-H Copula函数建立了年最高潮位和相应潮差的二维联合分布模型,通过组合风险分析法研究了设计高潮位和设计潮差的组合风险率。以天津港多年实测资料计算分析为例,结果表明:较大重现期的高潮位和潮差同时发生的概率较小,50年一遇高潮位与50年一遇潮差组合的风险率仅为0.05%,同频率设计偏安全,可依据组合风险率适当降低潮差设计标准。所采用的联合分布模型及其应用,在定量分析基础上为设计潮位过程的推求提供了一种新方法。     

“9417”号台风风暴潮成因的分析

＠谷风鸣￥浙江省温州市气象台“９４１７”号台风风暴潮创下了温州瓯江、飞云江百年不遇的特高潮位,给温州带来了巨大的损失。本文从地理位置、气压、风、降水等方面对潮位的影响作了分析,指出其特高潮位是在特定的地理位置条件下,在天文大潮汛期时,恰遇台风登陆,并在强大...     

Regional frequency analysis of daily rainfall extremes using L-moments approach

Daily extreme precipitation values are among environmental events with the most disastrous consequences for human society. Information on the magnitudes and frequencies of extreme precipitations is essential for sustainable water resources management, planning for weather-related emergencies, and design of hydraulic structures. In the present study, regional frequency analysis of maximum daily rainfalls was investigated for Golestan province located in the northeastern Iran. This study aimed to find appropriate regional frequency distributions for maximum daily rainfalls and predict the return values of extreme rainfall events (design rainfall depths) for the future. L-moment regionalization procedures coupled with an index rainfall method were applied to maximum rainfall records of 47 stations across the study area. Due to complex geographic and hydro-climatological characteristics of the region, an important research issue focused on breaking down the large area into homogeneous and coherent sub-regions. The study area was divided into five homogeneous regions, based on the cluster analysis of site characteristics and tests for the regional homogeneity. The goodness-of-fit results indicated that the best fitting distribution is different for individual homogeneous regions. The difference may be a result of the distinctive climatic and geographic conditions. The estimated regional quantiles and their accuracy measures produced by Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the estimation uncertainty as measured by the RMSE values and 90% error bounds is relatively low when return periods are less than 100 years. But, for higher return periods, rainfall estimates should be treated with caution. More station years, either from longer records or more stations in the regions, would be required for rainfall estimates above T=100 years. It was found from the analyses that, the index rainfall (at-site average maximum rainfall) can be estimated reasonably well as a function of mean annual precipitation in Golestan province. Index rainfalls combined with the regional growth curves, can be used to estimate design rainfalls at ungauged sites. Overall, it was found that cluster analysis together with the L-moments based regional frequency analysis technique could be applied successfully in deriving design rainfall estimates for northeastern Iran. The approach utilized in this study and the findings are of great scientific and practical merit, particularly for the purpose of planning for weather-related emergencies and design of hydraulic engineering structures.     

WA联合ELM与OS-ELM的滑坡位移预测模型

滑坡累积位移监测曲线往往呈现出复杂的非线性增长特性,对此建立了不少相关的预测模型,而以往的预测模型存在着许多不足。本文基于小波函数（Wavelet Analysis,WA）,ELM与OS-ELM,提出一种名为WA联合ELM、OS-ELM的预测方法。首先,该方法基于小波函数,将滑坡累积位移分解成受内部地质条件影响的趋势项和受外部影响因子影响的周期项;然后,基于ELM与OS-ELM分别对趋势项和周期项进行预测;最后将趋势项和周期项的预测值叠加得到累积位移的预测值。结果表明,小波函数得到的趋势项展现出良好的趋势性,而周期项也展现出良好的周期性;以Sigmoid方程为核函数,隐含层神经元个数为33的ELM模型能准确高效对趋势项进行预测,而以RBF方程为核函数,隐含层神经元个数为100的OS-ELM模型能准确高效对周期项进行预测;累积位移预测数据的RMSE分别为0.1423和0.1315,预测结果相对较好,能够在滑坡位移预测领域发挥一定的作用。     

青海省近50年极端降水事件时空分布特征

基于线性倾向估计、小波分析、Mann-Kendall检验及空间插值等方法,对1962—2013年28个均匀分布在青海省内的气象站点数据近50 a(1962—2013年)极端降水事件的时空特征进行了分析。结果表明,在长期趋势上青海省极端降水事件呈上升趋势,其强度与频数变化分别具有28 a和15 a±的主周期,并且少数站点在20世纪90年代发生突变;青海省内的极端降水事件在空间上存在明显差异,整体呈自西向东逐渐增强的特征,极端降水事件在南部地区发生频率总体高于北部地区,东南部发生极端降水的频率最高;近50 a青海省内大部分地区极端降水事件的强度与频数均呈上升趋势,其中东北部地区极端降水事件的强度上升趋势较为明显,仅有东南端与西北端呈现下降趋势,极端降水事件频数的上升趋势由东南端及西北端分别向中部加强。     

1961-2015年吉林省极端降水指数时空变化特征

利用1961-2015年吉林省50个气象站的逐日降水量资料,通过RClimDex v1.1软件计算11个极端降水指数,采用线性倾向估计和Morlet小波分析等方法,分析了吉林省极端降水指数的时空变化规律。结果表明：1961-2015年吉林省最长连续无雨日数（CDD）自西向东逐渐降低,其他极端降水指数均呈自西向东逐渐增加的趋势分布。吉林省CDD呈极显著的下降趋势,下降速率为-1.99 d·（10a）^-1,其他极端降水指数波动变化,线性趋势不显著。吉林省各极端降水指数均在20世纪70年代达到最小值。绝大多数极端降水指数存在3 a和12 a左右的周期变化,3 a左右的主周期通过了0.05的显著性水平检验。吉林省极端降水指数除CDD随经度、海拔的增加而显著降低,随纬度的增加而显著增加外,其他大部分极端降水指数随经度、海拔的增加而增加,随纬度的增加而降低。     

年降水量和年径流量序列中特大（小）值分析处理方法研究

本文针对年降水量序列和年径流量序列中存在特大（小）值的问题,提出了实测序列中特大（小）值的检验方法及其重现期的确定方法,给出了含有特大值序列的分析计算方法。对山东省胶东地区部分主要河流年降水量和年径流量序列进行了分析,重新评价了该地区的降水资源及地表水资源。     

Spatio-temporal variations in precipitation on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 1963 to 2012

Spatio-temporal variations in precipitation are affecting agricultural production in China in the context of climate change. Based on daily precipitation data from 63 national meteorological stations on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 1963 to 2012, this paper analysed the spatio-temporal variations in precipitation in terms of precipitation days and intensity, using spatial interpolation, linear trend estimation and wavelet analysis. The results indicated that: (i) from 1963 to 2012, the number of annual precipitation days and intensity decreased gradually from the southeast to the northwest. Additionally, the distribution of the extreme precipitation index was similar to that of the annual precipitation index; (ii) the number of annual precipitation days and heavy precipitation days gradually decreased, while precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation days and extreme rainfall intensity remained relatively stable or decreased. The spatial patterns of annual variation trends were considerably different. The annual precipitation days and intensity trends are consistent with the overall trend, while that of the extreme rainfall index in some regions differs from the overall trend; (iii) the precipitation index displayed different periodic oscillations during the period, and the precipitation index values differed at different time scales. However, all the precipitation index values exhibited a 28-yr oscillation.     

中国极端降水事件的频数和强度特征

使用1951-2004年中国738个测站逐日降水资料,采用百分位的方法定义极端降水事件的阈值,分析了不同持续时间的极端降水事件的时空分布及变化趋势特征。结果表明,极端降水事件多发于35°N以南,特别是在长江中下游和江南地区以及高原东南部,且在这些地区极端降水事件持续时间也较长。季节分布上,主要出现在夏季,以低持续性事件为主。在中国东部地区,持续时间越长的极端降水其强度往往越强。趋势分析表明,全国持续1d极端事件的相对频数具有上升趋势而平均强度具有下降趋势,其空间上均表现为全国大部分上升、华北和西南等地下降的趋势。持续2d以上极端事件在长江中下游流域、江南地区和高原东部等地区有显著增多和增强的趋势,而在华北和西南地区有减少和减弱趋势,但全国平均的趋势不显著。     

广东省近50年极端降水事件的时空特征及成因分析

利用广东省境内25个测站1961~2010年逐日降水资料,综合运用Mann-Kendall检验、正交分解函数和Morlet小波分析等方法,剖析了广东省极端降水的空间结构分布与时间变化特征,并从水汽辐合的角度解释了极端降水的时空特征。结果表明:全省极端降水事件的总量、频次、强度空间分布差异较大,从北到南,极端降水总量和强度增加,频次减少;全省大部分区域极端降水总量和频次都有增加的趋势;广东省极端降水受大尺度天气系统的影响,存在全区一致的多雨或少雨,但也存在东西、四周、中心以及南北的差异;极端降水空间异常可分为4个气候区(异常型),即粤东北区,粤西区,粤中部区以及粤东沿海区,各降水异常区存在20a左右的长周期、10a左右较长周期的和3~4a的短周期振荡;广东省极端降水与极端水汽辐合对应关系较好,区域内水汽辐合的改变可能是影响广东省极端降水变化的重要气候因子。     

Regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation and its spatio-temporal characteristics in the Huai River Basin, China

With the increasing exposure of populations and economy to natural hazards, the spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme rainfall remain a key subject of study. Based on annual maximum rainfall (AM) and peaks over threshold rainfall series at 30 meteorological stations during 1960–2011 in the Huai River Basin (HRB), spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme rainfall are analyzed through regional frequency analysis method using L-moments. The accuracy and uncertainty analysis of quantile estimations are also carried out, and the regional and at-site frequency analyses are compared. Results indicate the following: (1) During 1960–2011, AM precipitation at 20 stations in the HRB shows an increasing trend, while at the other 10 stations, it shows a decreasing trend. And both the increased and decreased trends are not significant. (2) The HRB can be categorized into three homogeneous regions via cluster analysis. For both at-site and regional frequency analyses, the root mean square error values increase with the increase in return periods. The estimations are reliable enough for the return periods of less than 100 years. The quantile estimates of large return period from regional frequency analysis are more accurate and have smaller uncertainty than those from at-site frequency analysis. (3) Extreme precipitation in the HRB concentrates in the upstream of the Huai River and YiShuSi water system in the east of the HRB. Generally, the area with extreme precipitation, especially the upper reaches of the Huai River and Yimeng Mountain areas, also has large standard variations of extreme precipitation, which will increase the risk of natural hazards.     

Methods for probabilistic assessments of geologic hazards

Although risk analysis today is considered to include three separate aspects (1) identifing sources of risk, (2) estimating probabilities quantitatively, and (3) evaluating consequences of risk, here only estimation of probabilities for natural geologic events, processes, and phenomena is addressed. Ideally, evaluation of potential future hazards includes an objective determination of probabilities that have been derived from past occurrences of identical events or components contributing to complex processes or phenomena. In practice, however, data which would permit objective estimation of those probabilities of interest may not be adequate, or may not even exist.Another problem that arises normally, regardless of the extent of data, is that risk assessments involve estimating extreme values. Probabilities are required for events that are the greatest or rarest because they commonly will have the greatest consequences; the largest, or rarest, events always fall in tails of frequency distributions. Rarely are extreme values accurately predictable even when an empirical frequency distribution is established well by data.In the absence of objective methods for estimating probabilities of natural events or processes, subjective probabilities for the hazard must be established through Bayesian methods, expert opinion, or Delphi methods. Alternative solutions may involve consequence analysis which may demonstrate that, although an event may occur, its consequences are sufficiently small that it safely may be ignored or by establishing bounds which may demonstrate that although probabilities are not known they cannot exceed a maximum value that is sufficiently small so that associated risk may be considered to be negligible.Uncertainty of every probability determination must be stated for each component of an event, process, or phenomenon. These uncertainties also must be propagated through the quantitative analysis so that a realistic estimate of total uncertainty can be associated with each final probability estimate for a geologic hazard.This paper was presented (by title) at Emerging Concepts, MGUS-87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.