Long-term effects of reduced nutrient inputs to the North Sea

The OSPAR Commission has identified a set of Ecological Quality Objectives (EcoQOs) to assess eutrophication in the North Sea. In order to assess the long-term effects of different river nutrient reduction scenarios in terms of these EcoQOs, a 3-dimensional coupled physical–chemical–biological model, NORWECOM, has been used. The model results show that there is a decreasing response gradient from near-shore to offshore, where the largest effects are identified along the Dutch coast, and that the full potential of a reduction is seen after 2–3 years. The EcoQOs on winter nutrients and chlorophyll are achieved for most areas. Oxygen concentrations displace no or very low response to the modelled nutrient reductions. The study also shows that the ecological quality is controlled to a large extent by winds and ocean circulation.     

Differential recruitment of introduced Pacific oysters and native mussels at the North Sea coast: coexistence possible?

Pacific oysters (Crassostrea gigas Thunberg 1793) have been introduced into the Wadden Sea (North Sea), where they settle on native mussel beds (Mytilus edulis L.), which represent the only extensive insular hard substrata in this soft-sediment environment. As abundances of C. gigas rose, some mussel beds became increasingly overgrown with oysters, whereas others did not. Field experiments revealed that recruitment of C. gigas was higher in the lower intertidal than in the upper subtidal zone, that it was higher on conspecifics than on mussels, and that it was not affected by barnacle epigrowth except when settling on mussels. Mussel recruitment is known from inter- and subtidal zones. It occurred equally on oyster and mussel shells but showed a clear preference for barnacle epigrowth over clean shells. Assuming that settlement and recruitment are key processes for species abundances on the North Sea coast, it is predicted that the positive feedback in oyster settlement will lead to rapid reef formation of this invader at the expense of mussel beds. Mussels, however, may escape competitive exclusion by settling between or on the larger oysters especially when barnacles are abundant. Experimental patches with mussels were more often covered by fucoid algae (Fucus vesiculosus forma mytili Nienburg) than patches with oysters, and oyster recruitment was poor underneath such algal canopies. Thus, fucoids may provide the native mussels with a refuge from the invading oysters and the two bivalves may coexist, provided food is not limiting.     

Long-term changes of dissolved oxygen,hypoxia, and the responses of the ecosystems in the East China Sea from 1975 to 1995

Observation data obtained in the 32°N transect (transect E) in 1975–1995 were used to analyze the long-term changes in dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration and near-bottom hypoxic water in the East China Sea (ECS). A declining trend in annual average DO concentration and the degree of DO saturation was observed. Consequently, the apparent oxygen utilization in the western waters of transect E was on the rise. There was a seasonal hypoxic phenomenon in near-bottom water in the western water of transect E. The width of hypoxic water formed in summer gradually extended eastward along the continental shelf (transect E) at the rate of 3.12 km year⁻¹. Three potential reasons might have caused the formation and maintenance of near-bottom hypoxic water. First, the special hydrological topography and hypoxic deep water of the Taiwan Warm Current provided a backdrop for the hypoxic zone. Second, in summer, the strength of water column stratification restricts water exchange. Third is the occurrence and decay of the phytoplankton bloom. In surface water, nutrient concentrations increased gradually, and chlorophyll (Chl a), primary production, and phytoplankton biomass in summer increased. On the other hand, the community structure of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and zoobenthos became simple. Blooming phytoplankton consumed plenty of nutrients in the surface, but the upwelling of nutritious bottom water was suppressed by the strong thermocline. As a result, sinking of phytoplankton was enhanced because of nutrient deficiency. In recent years, a serious lack of zoobenthos in the study area corresponded to a higher degree of hypoxia. This phenomenon would have a major effect on the evolution of ecological dynamic systems in the ECS.     

Data-based yearly forecasting of beach volumes along the Dutch North Sea coast

Beach and nearshore levels have been measured yearly along the entire Dutch North Sea coast since the mid 1960s (the ‘Jarkus’ data set). This data set has been processed to create separate time series of beach volumes at longshore intervals of about 250 m, giving over 2000 time series in total. These time series typically show a high annual variability with weak long-term trends. The present Dutch national coastal management strategy involves making year-ahead forecasts of beach volumes by extrapolating a linear least squares trend through the previous ten years' data separately for each longshore location. In this paper, these forecasts are shown to be worse than the trivial forecast in which the most recently measured beach volume persists unchanged into the future, with a mean square error (MSE) about 13.5% worse (equivalent to a root mean square error (RMSE) 6.5% worse). Improvements to these forecasts are sought by testing six different univariate forecasting methods. The two best methods improve on the persistence of the most recently measured beach volume by about 15% MSE (8% RMSE), and on the presently used linear least squares trend method by about 25% MSE (13.5% RMSE). Further comparisons are made between the forecasting methods to investigate several factors. These include varying the amount of fitting data for the forecasting methods, smoothing of the fitting data, different methods for interpolating gaps in the data, the longshore aggregation of data, making forecasts for coastal profiles with and without nourishments, and making forecasts up to five years ahead. These forecasting methods are designed as a coastal management tool to provide yearly forecasts quickly and routinely for the whole Dutch North Sea coast.     

Temporal and cross-shelf distribution of ichthyoplankton in the central Cantabrian Sea

Environmental variables have been measured and sampling for ichthyoplankton has been conducted monthly, since April 2001, at three stations, located at the inner (1), middle (2) and outer (3) shelf of the central Cantabrian Sea. This paper presents the results of the study of the ichthyoplankton collected from July 2001 to June 2004. Fish larvae from 99 species, belonging to 37 families, were identified. Families with higher number of species were Gadidae, Sparidae and Labridae. The larval fish assemblage was dominated by pelagic fish species, with Sardina pilchardus, as the most abundant. There was a pronounced spring peak in larval abundance, dominated by S. pilchardus. A smaller peak, dominated by S. pilchardus and Micromesistius poutassou, was recorded in late winter at Stns 2 and 3. This pattern was evident for the three-year study. Results also indicate that this study was limited to the coastal larval fish assemblage inhabiting the central Cantabrian Sea shelf. This assemblage was temporally structured into other three assemblages: winter, late winter–spring and summer–autumn. Temperature was apparently a key factor in larval fish assemblage succession. In a scenario of global warming, this study constitutes a basis to evaluating the ongoing changes in the pelagic coastal ecosystem of the central Cantabrian Sea.     

Changes in the species composition and ichthyoplankton abundance along transects in the Baltic Sea

Correlations have been revealed between the distribution of the different ichthyoplankton species and the fluctuations of the environmental factors along transects in the Baltic Sea during the autumn of 2005 and spring and autumn of 2006. The early ontogenetic stages of the cod and other bottom fish species were confined to the Bornholm Basin located in the southwestern part of the sea with near-bottom salinity of more than 16?? and the absence of an oxygen deficiency in the isohaline zone of 11?C14??. Eggs and larvae of the Baltic sprat were distributed in June throughout all the deep-sea regions with near-bottom water salinity of no less than 8%., up to the western Gulf of Finland. In the spring of 2006, the abundance of sprat eggs was found to drop significantly compared with the average long-term data for the recent period; this was due to the cold winter of 2006.     

Long-term simulation of the eutrophication of the North Sea: temporal development of nutrients, chlorophyll and primary production in comparison to observations

The ecosystem model ERSEM II has been used to hindcast the development of the ecosystem of the North Sea during the years 1955 to 1993. The simulation was driven by the box-aggregated output from a general circulation model of the North Sea of corresponding duration; radiation, river inputs, atmospheric input and boundary conditions at the borders to the Atlantic Ocean and to the Baltic Sea were applied as realistically as possible. The general features of the eutrophication process are reproduced in the hindcast: the coastal areas show strong changes in nutrient concentrations in the hindcast as well as in the observations. Eutrophication not only shows up in the nutrient concentrations, but also in primary production. The simulated spatial distributions of phosphate, nitrate and primary production compare well with the observed ones. In addition, the hindcast simulates considerable trend-like changes of the nutrients in the southern part of the North Sea, where the nutrients are transported from the continental coastal strip to the southern central North Sea. The line from the river Humber to southern Norway separates the region of noticeable anthropogenic influence of riverine and atmospheric input from the northern area, which is mainly influenced by the Atlantic nutrient inflow. The observed annual cycles in the central and northern North Sea are quite well reproduced by the hindcast. The comparison of the hindcast with the long-term observations at two sites in the continental coastal zone of the North Sea shows that the long-term behaviour of phosphate, nitrate and silicate is simulated well. Primary production is increased in summers during the main period of eutrophication, 1975 to 1989, in the hindcast and in the observations. The flagellates at Helgoland, however, experience much more pronounced annual cycles with much less interannual variability in the hindcast than in the observations.     

Forecasting of tsunami wave heights at the Russian coast of the Black Sea

Forecasting of tsunami wave heights at the Russian coast of the Black Sea is discussed. Prognostic numerical calculations of tsunamis were carried out for the tsunami sources uniformly distributed in the Black Sea basin (a total of 55 events). Their results are compared with the results of numerical modeling of the historical events (in 1939 and 1966) and the data of not numerous measurements. A preliminary forecast is made on this basis for the tsunami wave heights along the Russian coast of the Black Sea.     

南海北部上层鱼类浮游生物多样性和丰度的季节变化

The objective of this study was to investigate the seasonal variations of ichthyoplankton diversity and abun-dance in the northern South China Sea based on the data collected during summer, winter and spring. In total, 95 taxa of larval fishes were identified. The greatest number of species was recorded in spring, followed by summer and winter. The number of species was distributed mainly in the coastal waters from the east of Leizhou Peninsula to the southeast of Hainan Island during the surveyed periods of summer and spring, but in the offshore waters during winter. The abundance of larval fish was lowest in winter, increased in spring, and reached the maximum in summer. High abundance of larval fish was generally restricted to coastal waters with the isobaths less than 50 m. Seasonal variations of larval fish richness, abundance and diversity index were significant （P〈0.001）. Carangidae was the most common and abundant taxon in summer and winter, whileSardinella sp.,Thrissa mystax andLeiognathus sp. were dominant in spring. High diversity and abundance of larval fish might be attributed to increased temperature and coastal upwelling in spring and summer.     

Transport of copper from the Bering Sea to the northwestern North Pacific

Dissolved copper concentrations in surface waters of the Bering Sea ranged from 106 to 882 ngl^–1. Higher concentrations were found in continental shelf waters. In the northwestern North Pacific dissolved copper ranged from 54 to 140 ngl^–1. Particulate copper concentrations varied regionally and seasonally from 6 to 79 ngl^–1. Regionally averaged particulate copper concentrations decreased from 175 to 33g g^–1 against an increase in suspended materials because of the dilution effects of biological fractions. Apparent sporadic increases in copper concentrations were found in the mixing area of the Kuroshio and the Oyashio waters. The feature is attributed to the lateral distribution of different water types rather than to the upwelling of deeper waters by eddies. In the same area west of 160E, waters with high concentrations of dissolved copper (96±9 ngl^–1) were found. Their origin appears to be the continental shelf of the Bering Sea. In spite of intensive biological activity, a considerable fraction of copper added to shelf waters was transported to the area off Japan via the circulation in the Bering Sea and the Oyashio current.