Probabilistic calibration of a coupled hydro-mechanical slope stability model with integration of multiple observations

Multiple types of responses, such as displacements, ground water level, pore water pressures, water contents, etc., are usually measured in comprehensive monitoring programmes for rainfall-induced landslide prevention. In this study, a probabilistic calibration method for coupled hydro-mechanical modelling of slope stability is presented with integration of multiple types of measurements. A numerical example of a soil slope under rainfall infiltration is illustrated to compare the effects of single and multiple types of responses on parameter estimation and model calibration. The results show that the soil parameters can be estimated with less uncertainty and total uncertainty bounds are narrower with multiple types of responses than with a single type of response. Model calibration based on multiple types of responses can compromise different responses and hence the means and standard deviations of model error are the smallest. A feasible correlation coefficient between soil modulus and permeability can be obtained from model calibration with multiple types of responses and single type of response as long as the responses include displacement data.     

层状介质高频电磁场响应及位移电流影响

所讨论的电磁场频率介于传统的低频电磁法和雷达频率之间。在这个频率范围内,传导电流和位移电流都是不可忽略的。采用高密度采样算法计算水平层状磁偶线圈模型的电磁响应,通过对归一化的电磁响应在不同地电情况的模拟,比较分析了高频电磁场响应特征以及位移电流对高频电磁响应的贡献。     

地铁列车振动作用下近距离平行隧道的弹塑性动力响应

利用有限元数值方法,对地铁列车振动荷载作用下近距离平行隧道结构的二维弹塑性动力响应进行模拟,分析了单列列车荷载以及双列列车荷载作用下土体-隧道结构体系的加速度和内力响应时程曲线。研究表明,列车动力荷载作用下的内力值要比无列车荷载作用下的内力值有较大程度的增加;在单列列车荷载作用下,另一相邻平行隧道的加速度响应、弯矩、轴力峰值要比列车运行所在隧道相应点处的响应值要小;在双列列车荷载作用下隧道结构体系动力响应值要比单列列车荷载作用下的动力响应值有显著增加。     

各向异性上覆层对裂缝储层地震AVAz影响的模拟及分析

为认识和研究上覆层为VTI时,垂直裂缝发育储层的地震反射AVAz响应特性,提出了相适应的正演模拟方法。该方法类比Shoenberg传播矩阵法中水平慢度分量的表达形式,引入了用入射角、方位角和VTI介质中相速度来表达的水平慢度分量作为输入,简化了各向异性反射率法的框架。利用该方法模拟和分析了各向异性层状模型的地震反射响应随方位的变化,讨论了入射角、上覆层各向异性程度对目标层顶底界面反射波AVAz特征的影响。结果表明,采用适当大的观测入射角进行AVAz分析更为合理,上覆层为VTI时会减弱目标层的AVAz特征。测井尺度理论模型的数值模拟说明了该方法的实用性。     

Analysis of pile‐raft foundations under complex loads in layered soils

Considering there is hardly any concerted effort to analyze the pile‐raft foundations under complex loads (combined with vertical loads, horizontal loads and moments), an analysis method is proposed in this paper to estimate the responses of pile‐raft foundations which are subjected to vertical loads, horizontal loads and moments in layered soils based on solutions for stresses and displacements in layered elastic half space. Pile to pile, pile to soil surface, soil surface to pile and soil surface to soil surface interactions are key ingredients for calculating the responses of pile‐raft foundations accurately. Those interactions are fully taken into account to estimate the responses of pile‐raft foundations subject to vertical loads, horizontal loads and moments in layered soils. The constraints of the raft on vertical movements, horizontal movements and rotations of the piles as well as the constraints of the raft on vertical movements and horizontal movements of the soils are considered to reflect the coupled effect on the raft. The method is verified through comparisons with the published methods and FEM. Then, the method is adopted to investigate the influence of soil stratigraphy on pile responses. The study shows that it is necessary to consider the soil non‐homogeneity when estimating the responses of pile‐raft foundations in layered soils, especially when estimating the horizontal responses of pile‐raft foundations. The horizontal loads and the moments have a significant impact on vertical responses of piles in pile‐raft foundations, while vertical loads have little influence on horizontal responses of piles in pile‐raft foundations in the cases of small deformations. The proposed method can provide a simple and useful tool for engineering design. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

有耗媒质中脉冲响应的研究

本文详细论述了一维有耗媒质中脉冲响应的正演理论及其模拟技术。深入研究了导电率、介电常数对脉冲响应的影响。以平面脉冲电磁波在一维介质中的传播理论为基础，编制脉冲响应的仿真模拟软件。最后，用实际模型验证了该模拟技术的正确性和可靠性。     

中国陆地生态系统对全球变化的反应模式研究进展

综述了国家自然科学基金“八五”重大项目“中国陆地生态系统对全球变化的反应模式研究”的最新进展，主要有对全球变化反应的植物生态生理学基础模型研究，对全球变化反应的植物群落学模型与气候（植被关系，全球变化中的我国生物群区遥感监测技术与相关模型研究，以及生态系统对全球气候变化响应的预测。最后指出未来中国进行全球变化与陆地生态系统关系研究拟注重各计划间的交叉及应加强研究的领域。     

Generalizing Ecological Effects of Shoreline Armoring Across Soft Sediment Environments

Despite its widespread use, the ecological effects of shoreline armoring are poorly synthesized and difficult to generalize across soft sediment environments and structure types. We developed a conceptual model that scales predicted ecological effects of shore-parallel armoring based on two axes: engineering purpose of structure (reduce/slow velocities or prevent/stop flow of waves and currents) and hydrodynamic energy (e.g., tides, currents, waves) of soft sediment environments. We predicted greater ecological impacts for structures intended to stop as opposed to slow water flow and with increasing hydrodynamic energy of the environment. We evaluated our predictions with a literature review of effects of shoreline armoring for six possible ecological responses (habitat distribution, species assemblages, trophic structure, nutrient cycling, productivity, and connectivity). The majority of studies were in low-energy environments (51 of 88), and a preponderance addressed changes in two ecological responses associated with armoring: habitat distribution and species assemblages. Across the 207 armoring effects studied, 71% were significantly negative, 22% were significantly positive, and 7% reported no significant difference. Ecological responses varied with engineering purpose of structures, with a higher frequency of negative responses for structures designed to stop water flow within a given hydrodynamic energy level. Comparisons across the hydrodynamic energy axis were less clear-cut, but negative responses prevailed (>78%) in high-energy environments. These results suggest that generalizations of ecological responses to armoring across a range of environmental contexts are possible and that the proposed conceptual model is useful for generating predictions of the direction and relative ecological impacts of shoreline armoring in soft sediment ecosystems.     

Probabilistic analysis of a one-dimensional soil consolidation problem

In this paper, a probabilistic study of a one-dimensional soil consolidation problem has been carried out. The Collocation-based Stochastic Response Surface Method (CSRSM) was employed for the probabilistic analysis. The Young modulus E, the Poisson ratio ν, the hydraulic conductivity k _h and the uniform surcharge loading q applied at the ground surface were considered as random variables. The probabilistic system responses considered in the analysis were the surface settlement and the consolidation time. Numerical simulations that make use of Biot theory were used for the computation of these system responses. A global sensitivity analysis based on Sobol indices was performed to identify the random variables that have the most contribution in the variability of the system responses. Also, a parametric study was undertaken to investigate the effect of the input geotechnical parameters and the statistical parameters of the random variables on the probability distribution functions of the system responses.     

Probabilistic Inverse Analysis of Excavation-Induced Wall and Ground Responses for Assessing Damage Potential of Adjacent Buildings

This paper presents an approach for the probabilistic inverse analysis of braced excavations based on the maximum likelihood formulation. Here, the soil parameters are updated using the observations of the maximum ground settlement and/or the maximum wall deflection measured in a staged excavation. The updated soil parameters are then used to refine the predicted wall and ground responses in the subsequent excavation stages, as well as to assess the building damage potential at the final excavation stage. Case study shows that the proposed approach is effective in improving the predictions of the excavation-induced wall and ground responses. More-accurate predictions of the wall and ground responses, in turn, lead to a more accurate assessment of the damage potential of buildings adjacent to the excavation. The proposed approach offers an effective means for a probabilistic inverse analysis of braced excavations.     

Living with the Anthropocene blues

In this short discussion, we consider societal responses to the (impending) ‘death of nature’ associated with the epoch now dubbed the Anthropocene. We forward the case for a geographical perspective that engages with psychological and psychoanalytic analyses to better understand responses and coping mechanisms, such as societal death anxiety.     

Social perception and response to the drought process: a case study of the drought during 2009–2010 in the Qianxi’nan Prefecture of Guizhou Province

Studies carried out on the drought process, which can be classed as a gradual disaster, can help us to understand the disaster mechanism and offer strategies for disaster prevention. This paper uses the example of the drought in the Qianxi??nan Prefecture of Guizhou Province from July 2009 to May 2010. Data have been collected from government gazetteers, meteorological monitoring data, and field surveys to build up a sequence of meteorological drought indices. The categorization of the victims?? perception of drought impact, and the stages of drought responses of different subjects (government, social organizations, and the public), has also been examined by the same way. By contrasting the differences between the metrological drought indices, and victims?? perception of drought impact, researchers explored the drought cognition features of victims, social response features, and dynamic relationships between drought development and social responses. The results were as follows: The drought evolution process could be divided into 6 phases, and victims?? perception of drought impact could be divided into 7 phases. They were consistent in time period, and the victims?? perception of drought was subjective and based on their direct experiences. Their response has the characteristics of long term and concentration on a time. The responses of government and social organizations obviously fell behind those of victims, but they were effective and intensive in both timescale and effort. As the drought developed, responses shifted from individual to social responses and from practical to economic, political, and technological responses. On the basis of the results, the author has suggested methods of preparing stakeholders against possible drought risks.     

跨越走滑断层黏土地层动力响应离心机试验研究

地震中基岩走滑断层活动引起跨断层地下结构物破坏,上覆土层的非一致响应机制尚不明确,隐伏裂缝影响规律认识不足。基于可模拟走滑断层活动的层状剪切箱,针对黏土地层展开两个离心机振动台试验,对比上覆土体中隐伏裂缝的影响。试验结果表明,当地层中不存在隐伏裂缝时,基岩走滑断层错动对两盘地层的非一致振动的影响不显著。当地层中存在隐伏裂缝,错动盘一侧土体的振动加速度幅值随振动循环次数的增加逐渐减小,固定盘和错动盘两侧土体出现非一致振动响应,固定盘一侧土体产生的超静孔压大于错动盘一侧。隐伏裂缝对土体非一致振动响应的影响范围受限于其在地层中的分布范围,探明隐伏裂缝上断点的埋深具有重要工程意义。     

列车荷载下冻土路基非平稳随机振动分析的时域显式法北大核心CSCD

随着我国冻土地区铁路运营里程的不断提升,冻土路基在随机列车荷载作用下的动力响应分析成为了急需解决的工程问题。本文以青藏铁路某路基横断面为例,采用时域显式蒙特卡罗模拟法,计算其在随机列车荷载作用下响应的统计特征。首先,提出列车驶过施加在路基顶面荷载的快速计算方法,并引入轨道不平顺及列车行驶速度两类随机参数,以生成随机分析所需的大量荷载样本。然后,采用数值积分方法将运动方程在时域上进行离散,建立任意离散时刻冻土路基动力响应关于列车荷载的显式表达式。基于该显式表达式,可以高效地实施蒙特卡罗模拟,得到在随机列车荷载作用下路基关键响应的均值、标准差和峰值等统计量。采用该方法,分析了路基在夏冬两个季节不同深度处的随机动力响应,发现在夏季路基浅层中的位移和速度响应最为剧烈。数值算例表明,时域显式蒙特卡罗模拟法在冻土路基随机振动分析中具有理想的计算精度和计算效率。     

Responses of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Avicennia germinans</Emphasis> (Black Mangrove) and the Soil Microbial Community to Nitrogen Addition in a Hypersaline Wetland

The responses of dwarf black mangroves (Avicennia germinans) and components of the microbial community to the addition of nitrate over a 2-year period were examined. The field study was conducted in the Indian River Lagoon (Florida) in a mangrove-dominated impoundment that was established for purposes of mosquito control. The responses of mangroves to the regular addition of nitrate were insignificant or relatively minor compared to responses of the components of the microbial community. Denitrification rates, measured in the field and laboratory, increased significantly in fertilized plots and nitrous oxide emission rates were almost six times higher in fertilized plots. Nitrogen fixation was significantly lower in fertilized plots. Results suggest that mangrove systems in the N-limited Indian River Lagoon are likely to be long-term sinks for any increases in N loading.     

砂土自由场地基水平垂直振动离心模拟试验

利用最新研制的R500B振动台在450 g-t离心机上对砂土自由场地基在水平和垂直地震下的动态反应做了离心模拟试验研究。模拟离心重力场为30 g,振动台在水平和垂直方向的控制最大加速度分别为20 g和10 g。模型内布置相应的微型加速度计以测量地震反应。结果表明,在水平和竖向同时激振与单向分别激振砂土两种情况下,砂土地基有不同的动力反应,应在设计中予以考虑水平和竖向同时激振的耦合作用对砂土地基的影响     

Modelling the vegetation response to the 8.2 ka bp cooling event in Europe and Northern Africa

The 8.2 ka bp cooling event is assumed to be the most clearly marked abrupt climate event in the Holocene at northern mid‐ to high latitudes. In this study, we simulate the vegetation responses to the 8.2 ka bp climate change event over Europe and Northern Africa. Our results show that all dominant plant functional types (PFTs) over Europe and North Africa respond to these climate changes, but the magnitude, timing and impact factor of their responses are different. Compared with pollen‐based vegetation reconstructions, our simulation generally captures the main features of vegetation responses to the 8.2 ka bp event. Interestingly, in Western Europe, the simulated vegetation after perturbation is different from its initial state, which is consistent with two high‐resolution pollen records. This different vegetation composition indicates the long‐lasting impact of abrupt climate change on vegetation through eco‐physiological and ecosystem demographic processes, such as plant competition. Moreover, our simulations suggest a latitudinal gradient in the magnitude of the event, with more pronounced vegetation responses to the severe cooling in the north and weaker responses to less severe cooling in the south. This effect is not seen in pollen records. © 2019 The Authors. Journal of Quaternary Science Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The magnetic relaxation effect on TEM responses of a two-layer earth

We have simulated ungrounded horizontal loop transient responses of a two-layer earth consisting of a magnetically viscous layer above (model 1) or below (model 2) a nonmagnetic layer. The transient responses of a two-layer magnetically viscous earth can be computed using the superposition principle because magnetic relaxation and eddy current responses are independent at electrical conductivities typical of the real subsurface. The transients are presented and analyzed in the form of Y = f(h1) functions, where h1 is the upper layer thickness and Y is the response (at some fixed time) of a two-layer ground normalized to that of a uniform ground with its magnetic viscosity as in the upper (model 1) or lower (model 2) layer. In model 1, the Y function increases as magnetic viscosity grows in the upper layer while the latter is thinner than the loop size, but the magnetic relaxation responses of a thicker upper layer are almost identical to that of a uniform magnetically viscous ground. In model 2, the Y responses are likewise almost identical to that of a uniform magnetically viscous ground (h1 = 0) as far as the thickness of the upper layer remains small, but they decrease, first slowly and then ever more rapidly, after the layer becomes 15–20% thicker than the transmitter size. The effective sounditng depth in a magnetically viscous ground being controlled by the size of the transmitter, it is reasonable to use geometrical sounding to resolve the vertical distribution of magnetic viscosity.     

断层裂隙水的天然电场动态响应特征

流动于断层裂隙中的地下水径流相对较集中,可视为一种运动的导体。在天然电场这一微弱的物理场中可形成明显的动态响应,即在时间和空间上的非稳定运动产生复杂、时变的感应电磁场。试验证明,这种动态响应不仅与地下水埋深、水力坡度有关,而且与观测频率也存在着较密切的关系。      

生态系统可持续管理的对策

简要介绍了千年生态系统评估(MA)项目对策工作组的报告《生态系统与人类福祉:政策响应》的核心内容.MA的评估结果显示,在过去的50年里,60%的生态系统服务已经出现下降或不可持续利用的状况,而且许多生态系统服务在未来50年内仍会急剧下降,这将严重威胁联合国千年发展目标的实现.但是,MA认为通过对当前的政策、制度和行为习惯进行重大调整,仍然可望在满足对生态系统服务不断增长的需求的同时,减缓和扭转生态系统的退化趋势.基于这一认识,MA的对策工作组通过分析过去和当前用于生态系统管理的各种对策的优点与缺点,指出了生态系统可持续管理的障碍;确定了制度与管理对策、经济与激励对策、社会与行为对策、技术对策以及知识与认知对策方面可望改善生态系统管理状况的一系列干预措施;并提出了设计生态系统可持续管理的决策的基本原则以及有助于制定生态系统管理决策的有效手段.