黑河干流拟建水利工程对下游生态环境的影响分析

依据典型年份实际调查资料和以往研究成果, 采用地下水均衡方法, 定量对比分析了黑河拟建水利工程对下游地区地下水资源变化趋势, 并利用Visual Modflow三维地下水非稳定流软件系统模型对下游盆地未来20 a(2008—2028年)地下水位及其生态环境变化趋势进行了预测.结果表明: 在拟建工程实施20 a后黑河下游地下水位总体上处于下降趋势, 但下降幅度呈逐年减少状态直至趋于新的动态平衡.金塔-鼎新盆地地下水位下降幅度最大的地段是黑河沿岸为0.51~0.87 m, 但由于人工农业绿洲补充, 故生态环境不会有大的改变.额济纳盆地地下水位下降幅度最大的地段是古日乃及外围, 分别为1.0 m以上和0.5~1.0 m, 将引起植被的衰亡和种群的更替变化; 大部分地段地下水位下降幅度介于0.0~0.50 m之间, 对现有的生态与环境影响不显著; 桃来三达-额济纳旗以北地下水位呈现上升趋势, 上升幅度为0.10~0.87 m, 东居延海一带上升幅度大于0.87 m, 这一地区植被长势趋于良好, 植被覆盖率会有所增加, 将形成围绕海子的天然绿洲.     

Patterns in groundwater chemistry resulting from groundwater flow

 Groundwater flow influences hydrochemical patterns because flow reduces mixing by diffusion, carries the chemical imprints of biological and anthropogenic changes in the recharge area, and leaches the aquifer system. Global patterns are mainly dictated by differences in the flux of meteoric water passing through the subsoil. Within individual hydrosomes (water bodies with a specific origin), the following prograde evolution lines (facies sequence) normally develop in the direction of groundwater flow: from strong to no fluctuations in water quality, from polluted to unpolluted, from acidic to basic, from oxic to anoxic–methanogenic, from no to significant base exchange, and from fresh to brackish. This is demonstrated for fresh coastal-dune groundwater in the Netherlands. In this hydrosome, the leaching of calcium carbonate as much as 15 m and of adsorbed marine cations (Na⁺, K⁺, and Mg²⁺) as much as 2500 m in the flow direction is shown to correspond with about 5000 yr of flushing since the beach barrier with dunes developed. Recharge focus areas in the dunes are evidenced by groundwater displaying a lower prograde quality evolution than the surrounding dune groundwater. Artificially recharged Rhine River water in the dunes provides distinct hydrochemical patterns, which display groundwater flow, mixing, and groundwater ages. Received, May 1998 · Revised, August 1998 · Accepted, October 1998     

Delineating volcanic aquifer recharge areas using geochemical and isotopic tools

Relative recharge areas are evaluated using geochemical and isotopic tools, and inverse modeling. Geochemistry and water quality in springs discharging from a volcanic aquifer system in Guatemala are related to relative recharge area elevations and land use. Plagioclase feldspar and olivine react with volcanically derived CO₂ to produce Ca-montmorillonite, chalcedony and goethite in the groundwater. Alkalinity, Mg, Ca, Na, and SiO_2(aq) are produced, along with minor increases in Cl and SO₄ concentrations. Variations in groundwater δD and δ¹⁸O values are attributed to recharge elevation and used in concert with geochemical evolution to distinguish local, intermediate, and regional flow systems. Springs with geochemically inferred short flow paths provided useful proxies to estimate an isotopic gradient for precipitation (??.67 δ¹⁸O/100?m). No correlation between spring discharge and relative flow-path length or interpreted recharge elevation was observed. The conceptual model was consistent with evidence of anthropogenic impacts (sewage and manure) in springs recharged in the lower watershed where livestock and humans reside. Spring sampling is a low-budget approach that can be used to develop a useful conceptual model of the relative scale of groundwater flow (and appropriate watershed protection areas), particularly in volcanic terrain where wells and boreholes are scarce.     

Middle and Late Holocene Sea-Level Changes in Eastern Maine Reconstructed from Foraminiferal Saltmarsh Stratigraphy and AMS C Dates on Basal Peat

A relative sea-level history is reconstructed for Machiasport, Maine, spanning the past 6000 calendar years and combining two different methods. The first method establishes the long-term (10³ yr) trend of sea-level rise by dating the base of the Holocene saltmarsh peat overlying a Pleistocene substrate. The second method uses detailed analyses of the foraminiferal stratigraphy of two saltmarsh peat cores to quantify fluctuations superimposed on the long-term trend. The indicative meaning of the peat (the height at which the peat was deposited relative to mean tide level) is calculated by a transfer function based on vertical distributions of modern foraminiferal assemblages. The chronology is determined from AMS ¹⁴C dates on saltmarsh plant fragments embedded in the peat. The combination of the two different approaches produces a high-resolution, replicable sea-level record, which takes into account the autocompaction of the peat sequence. Long-term mean rates of sea-level rise, corrected for changes in tidal range, are 0.75 mm/yr between 6000 and 1500 cal yr B.P. and 0.43 mm/yr during the past 1500 years. The foraminiferal stratigraphy reveals several low-amplitude fluctuations during a relatively stable period between 1100 and 400 cal yr B.P., and a sea-level rise of 0.5 m during the past 300 years.     

灌溉农田节水增产对地下水开采量影响研究

据实际资料研究结果表明,近50年来滹沱河流域平原区粮食产量持续增加导致农业区地下水开采量不断增大,同时灌溉节水水平的不断提高有效地缓解了地下水开采量增加的速率。若按1953-1970年期间平均每公斤粮食生产耗用地下水开采量(3.11 m3/kg)推算,现状粮食生产规模下地下水开采量应为142.3亿m3/a,较实际开采量(24.4亿m3/a)多117.9亿m3/a,平均每5年递增11.74亿m3。以2001-2005年平均耗用地下水开采量(0.53 m3/kg)计算,粮食增产促使地下水开采量平均每5年递增2.45亿m3,平均每5年少递增9.45亿m3。因此,大力发展抗旱节水作物及高产节水技术,合理调控农业种植结构,对于缓解研究区地下水不断恶化态势具有实质性促进作用。     

时间序列分析法在地下水水位预测中的应用

联合模型是能够应用于地下水水位预测的一种时间序列分析法,它由趋势函数、周期函数和自相关函数组成。本文结合北京市地下水监测资料进行了趋势性、周期性和自相关性分析,详细讨论了联合模型在地下水水位预测中的应用。     

基于非等间距序列GM(1,1)模型的地下水温度预测

地下水温度是地下水源热泵系统设计中的一个重要参数,它关系到热泵系统换热器的选型计算以及整个系统的优化设计,所以在地热井勘探和使用过程中,通过定期监测各层段地下水的温度,预测地下水温度随深度的变化规律,为地下水源热泵设计、运行、成井工艺等提供参考资料,具有非常重要的实用价值。基于灰色理论基础,应用西安市泾河开发区两口观测井30～108m的实测水温作为原始数据,构建非等间距序列GM(1,1)预测模型,预测其128～150m的水温变化情况。结果表明:模拟结果与实际值拟合好,该模型能够较好地预测地下水温度随埋藏深度的变化趋势,是分析地下水温垂向变化趋势的一种新途径。     

Testing the 14C ages and conservative behavior of dissolved 14C in a carbonate aquifer in Yucca Flat,Nevada (USA), using 36Cl from groundwater and packrat middens

Corrected groundwater ¹⁴C ages from the carbonate aquifer in Yucca Flat at the former Nevada Test Site (now the Nevada National Security Site), USA, were evaluated by comparing temporal variations of groundwater ³⁶Cl/Cl estimated with these ¹⁴C ages with published records of meteoric ³⁶Cl/Cl variations preserved in packrat middens (piles of plant fragments, fecal matter and urine). Good agreement between these records indicates that the groundwater ¹⁴C ages are reasonable and that ¹⁴C is moving with chloride without sorbing to the carbonate rock matrix or fracture coatings, despite opposing evidence from laboratory experiments. The groundwater ¹⁴C ages are consistent with other hydrologic evidence that indicates significant basin infiltration ceased 8,000 to 10,000 years ago, and that recharge to the carbonate aquifer is from paleowater draining through overlying tuff confining units along major faults. This interpretation is supported by the relative age differences as well as hydraulic head differences between the alluvial and volcanic aquifers and the carbonate aquifer. The carbonate aquifer ¹⁴C ages suggest that groundwater velocities throughout much of Yucca Flat are about 2 m/yr, consistent with the long-held conceptual model that blocking ridges of low-permeability rock hydrologically isolate the carbonate aquifer in Yucca Flat from the outlying regional carbonate flow system.     

Holocene Climate Variability in Antarctica Based on 11 Ice-Core Isotopic Records

A comparison is made of the Holocene records obtained from water isotope measurements along 11 ice cores from coastal and central sites in east Antarctica (Vostok, Dome B, Plateau Remote, Komsomolskaia, Dome C, Taylor Dome, Dominion Range, D47, KM105, and Law Dome) and west Antarctica (Byrd), with temporal resolution from 20 to 50 yr. The long-term trends possibly reflect local ice sheet elevation fluctuations superimposed on common climatic fluctuations. All the records confirm the widespread Antarctic early Holocene optimum between 11,500 and 9000 yr; in the Ross Sea sector, a secondary optimum is identified between 7000 and 5000 yr, whereas all eastern Antarctic sites show a late optimum between 6000 and 3000 yr. Superimposed on the long time trend, all the records exhibit 9 aperiodic millennial-scale oscillations. Climatic optima show a reduced pacing between warm events (typically 800 yr), whereas cooler periods are associated with less-frequent warm events (pacing >1200 yr).     

Functioning and precipitation-displacement modelling of rainfall-induced deep-seated landslides subject to creep deformation

We propose an approach to study the hydro-mechanical behaviour and evolution of rainfall-induced deep-seated landslides subjected to creep deformation by combining signal processing and modelling. The method is applied to the Séchilienne landslide in the French Alps, where precipitation and displacement have been monitored for 20 years. Wavelet analysis is first applied on precipitation and recharge as inputs and then on displacement time-series decomposed into trend and detrended signals as outputs. Results show that the detrended displacement is better linked to the recharge signal than to the total precipitation signal. The infra-annual detrended displacement is generated by high precipitation events, whereas annual and multi-annual variations are rather linked to recharge variations and thus to groundwater processes. This leads to conceptualise the system into a two-layer aquifer constituted of a perched aquifer (reactive aquifer responsible of high-frequency displacements) and a deep aquifer (inertial aquifer responsible of low-frequency displacements). In a second step, a new lumped model (GLIDE) coupling groundwater and a creep deformation model is applied to simulate displacement on three extensometer stations. The application of the GLIDE model gives good performance, validating most of the preliminary functioning hypotheses. Our results show that groundwater fluctuations can explain the displacement periodic variations as well as the long-term creep exponential trend. In the case of deep-seated landslides, this displacement trend is interpreted as the consequence of the weakening of the rock mechanical properties due to repeated actions of the groundwater pressure.     

Groundwater-wetland ecosystem interaction in the semiarid glaciated plains of North America

The prairie wetlands of northern USA and Canada exist in numerous topographical depressions within the glaciated landscape. The wetlands are disconnected from each other most of the time with respect to surface-water drainage. The wetland water balance is controlled by snowmelt runoff and snowdrift from the surrounding uplands, precipitation, evapotranspiration, groundwater exchange, and occasional “fill-spill” connections to other wetlands. Salinity of water and the seasonal variability of water level in these wetlands have a strong influence on the ecosystem. Clay-rich glacial tills, covering much of the region, have very low (0.001–0.01 m/yr) hydraulic conductivity, except for the top several meters where the factures and macropores increase conductivity up to 1,000 m/yr. Transpiration in the wetland margin induces infiltration and lateral flow of shallow groundwater from wetland ponds through the high-conductivity zone, which strongly affects the water balance of wetlands. In contrast, groundwater flow in the deeper low-conductivity till has minor effects on water balance, but has a strong influence on salinity because the flow direction determines if the salts accumulate in wetlands (upward flow) or are leached out (downward flow) under wetlands. Understanding of the roles of shallow and deep groundwater systems will improve the hydrological conceptual framework for the management of wetland ecosystems.     

The impact of intensive groundwater abstraction on recharge to a shallow regional aquifer system: evidence from Bangladesh

Quantitative evaluations of the impact of groundwater abstraction on recharge are rare. Over a period (1975??007) during which groundwater abstraction increased dramatically in the Bengal Basin, changes in net groundwater recharge in Bangladesh are assessed using the water-table fluctuation method. Mean annual groundwater recharge is shown to be higher (300??00?mm) in northwestern and southwestern areas of Bangladesh than in southeastern and northeastern regions (<100?mm) where rainfall and potential recharge are greater. Net recharge in many parts of Bangladesh has increased substantially (5??5?mm/year between 1985 and 2007) in response to increased groundwater abstraction for irrigation and urban water supplies. In contrast, net recharge has slightly decreased (??.5 to ???mm/year) in areas where groundwater-fed irrigation is low (<30% of total irrigation) and where abstraction has either decreased or remained unchanged over the period of 1985??007. The spatio-temporal dynamics of recharge in Bangladesh illustrate the fundamental flaw in definitions of “safe yield??based on recharge estimated under static (non-pumping) conditions and reveal the areas where (1) further groundwater abstraction may increase actual recharge to the shallow aquifer, and (2) current groundwater abstraction for irrigation and urban water supplies is unsustainable.     

A comparative study of artificial neural networks,Bayesian neural networks and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system in groundwater level prediction

Predictive modeling of hydrological time series is essential for groundwater resource development and management. Here, we examined the comparative merits and demerits of three modern soft computing techniques, namely, artificial neural networks (ANN) optimized by scaled conjugate gradient (SCG) (ANN.SCG), Bayesian neural networks (BNN) optimized by SCG (BNN.SCG) with evidence approximation and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in the predictive modeling of groundwater level fluctuations. As a first step of our analysis, a sensitivity analysis was carried out using automatic relevance determination scheme to examine the relative influence of each of the hydro-meteorological attributes on groundwater level fluctuations. Secondly, the result of stability analysis was studied by perturbing the underlying data sets with different levels of correlated red noise. Finally, guided by the ensuing theoretical experiments, the above techniques were applied to model the groundwater level fluctuation time series of six wells from a hard rock area of Dindigul in Southern India. We used four standard quantitative statistical measures to compare the robustness of the different models. These measures are (1) root mean square error, (2) reduction of error, (3) index of agreement (IA), and (4) Pearson’s correlation coefficient (R). Based on the above analyses, it is found that the ANFIS model performed better in modeling noise-free data than the BNN.SCG and ANN.SCG models. However, modeling of hydrological time series correlated with significant amount of red noise, the BNN.SCG models performed better than both the ANFIS and ANN.SCG models. Hence, appropriate care should be taken for selecting suitable methodology for modeling the complex and noisy hydrological time series. These results may be used to constrain the model of groundwater level fluctuations, which would in turn, facilitate the development and implementation of more effective sustainable groundwater management and planning strategies in semi-arid hard rock area of Dindigul, Southern India and alike.     

西北黑河额济纳盆地水资源管理研究——三维地下水流数值模拟

在大量实测资料的基础上, 建立了额济纳盆地地下水流系统饱和-非饱和三维数值模型, 对4种不同输水量情况下盆地内区域地下水位的变化趋势进行了预测, 进而提出了合理的输水方案, 黑河上中游向额济纳盆地合理的输水总量应为7.5亿m3/a, 其中通过狼心山水文站的水量不应小于5.5亿m3/a.这一方案为流域水资源的合理调配及额济纳绿洲生态环境保护和建设提供了依据.      

基于小波分析与Mann-Kendall法的岩溶大泉动态研究

研究地下水动态是认识地下水资源的有效手段。根据1956－2013年济南岩溶泉域大气降水及地下水水位动态监测资料,采用小波分析法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、突变检验法研究了58个水文年泉水位对大气降水的响应,可以看出:（1）大气降水和泉水位呈现出多尺度的变化特征,长时间尺度上两者的变化周期基本相同,变化周期为16年和12年,说明大气降水对泉水位有直接影响;（2）在1956—2013年,济南泉域地下水水位具有0.65 m·（10a）-1的年际显著下降趋势,但降水具有12.65 mm·（10a）-1的不显著上升趋势,说明在人为因素影响下泉水动态的影响因素的权重发生了变化;（3）大气降水在1999年发生突变,1999年之后年降水为增加趋势;而地下水水位突变年份为1967年,1967年以后水位持续降低,2004年以后水位快速上升,泉水位未来趋势应与降水保持一致,呈上升趋势,说明大气降水并非泉水动态的唯一影响因素;（4）通过建立不同时段的多元回归模型,表明近58年来地下水水位的主要影响因素由大气降水到人工开采之间的转换,同时验证了小波分析和Mann-Kendall法研究地下水动态的适宜性和可靠性,也为济南市的保泉提供了参考依据。      

娘子关泉域岩溶地下水位变化特征及成因

利用多年观测资料,结合地下水补、径、排条件,分析娘子关岩溶地下水动态变化特征及成因。结果表明:（1）娘子关泉群流量在1980-2004年前总体表现为下降状态,2004年之后趋于稳定并略有回升;（2）岩溶地下水位动态空间上表现为地下水补给区比径流区变化大,时间上则分为两个不同时间段:1980-2004年表现为持续下降状态,2005-2014年表现为波动缓慢下降,部分地区水位小幅回升;龙庄岩溶地下水1998年1月到2004年1月水位下降22.9 m,平均年变幅3.82 m,2005年5月到2014年5月水位升高1.5 m,年均变化-0.17 m。      

Aquifer system incremental linear property and its application on groundwater management

Generally, an aquifer system coupled into a groundwater management model was regarded as a linear system. However, in terms of systems analysis, the aquifer system can be proven to be an incremental linear system rather than a linear system. For example, a confined aquifer system can be decomposed into two parts, one of which is a linear time invariability sub-system and another is a zero-input response. This system does not meet the additivity property of linear system, but satisfies the incremental linear system characteristics. In order to better understand, a case study of water resources management of Huaibei city within semiarid region, north Anhui province of China, is cited. Taking into account the water demand for satisfying the urban development in the next 15 years, three planning target years of water resources are preset as the present (2005), the short term (2010) and the long term (2020), respectively, and four hydrological years (e.g., wet year, mean year, dry year, and extremely dry year) are also defined by the rainfall data of many years. A groundwater management model based on linear programming is established. This model can deal with 12 possible scenarios (3 target years × 4 hydrological years), optimize the strategies of water resources development, integrate various kinds of water sources (e.g., groundwater, surface–water and additional water) and meet the water demand for the urban development of Huaibei city. In accordance with the groundwater management model solutions, the problem of groundwater drawdown funnels (groundwater overextraction funnels) which formed within the Huaibei downtown area for many years and led to some environmental and social issues will be solved over the whole planning period. More importantly, through statistically analyzing the model solutions, the relationships between the groundwater pumping (input signals) and groundwater level recovery (output signals) show up the characteristics of the incremental linear system.     

“引哈济党”工程对敦煌盆地地下水位影响的数值模拟研究

国务院批准的《敦煌水资源合理利用与生态保护综合规划（2011—2020）》旨在缓解敦煌盆地水资源的合理利用与生态保护之间的矛盾。随着规划的实施,近年来盆地内水面的面积增大,作为规划骨干工程之一的“引哈济党”工程的实施必要性得到质疑。地下水是盆地重要的水源,也是影响西湖自然保护区等生态的关键因素。为定量分析引哈济党工程不同调水量下盆地地下水位时空演化态势,本研究建立了地下水三维流数值模型,结合长期观测井和统测井水位等数据对模型进行了识别和验证。模型应用发现:2010—2018年区域年均地下水储量亏空约0.40×108 m3,主要分布于党河洪积扇区和党河灌区北部,但党河灌区和西湖自然保护区核心区的地下水储量亏空分别约2.62×106,9.99×106 m3。采用模型预测了调水量为0.80×108,0.90×108 ,1.00×108,1.20×108 m3/a时,50年后地下水位动态,发现党河洪积扇地下水位回升5.0～20.0 m,月牙泉区地下水位回升7.0～15.0 m,而西湖自然保护区在模拟期内地下水位回升0.5 m以内。地下水侧向径流补给是西湖自然保护区核心区的重要和持续的补给水源,“引哈济党”工程将确保西湖地下水位的缓慢回升。研究结果可为“引哈济党”工程的实施论证提供重要参考。     

Modelling the response of vegetation restoration to changes in groundwater level,based on ecologically suitable groundwater depth

Groundwater-level fluctuations at a large scale have a significant effect on the preservation and restoration of vegetation. This study determined suitable groundwater depth within which natural vegetation grows well, and analysed the effect of groundwater regulation on vegetation restoration in Tianjin City, northern China. Normal and lognormal distributions were used to fit the curve of the relation between vegetation and groundwater depth. The groundwater depth range corresponding to the higher frequency of vegetation distribution was regarded as the ‘suitable water depth’ range for vegetation growth. The suitable groundwater depth for shrub growth was 3–5 m and for grass growth 1–3 m. A groundwater flow model predicted the future changes of groundwater depths in the vegetation distribution area under the condition that the current levels of groundwater extraction are maintained. The results showed that there is potential for the extraction of groundwater in shrubland areas, but for grassland areas the water-table elevation showed a downward trend, meaning that water shortages in some areas may be more severe in the future. Finally, based on the current groundwater extraction regime, two regulation schemes were developed: (1) for shrubland, groundwater extraction was reduced by 10% in the ecological water deficit areas, and extraction was increased by 10% in the ecological water surplus and suitable areas, and (2) for grassland, groundwater recharge was increased by the restoration of the wetland areas. In conclusion, the groundwater depths in most of the area would be more suitable for vegetation growth under the regulation schemes.     

U-Series Chronology of Lacustrine Deposits in Death Valley, California

Uranium-series dating on a 186-m core (DV93-1) drilled from Badwater Basin in Death Valley, California, and on calcareous tufas from nearby strandlines shows that Lake Manly, the lake that periodically flooded Death Valley during the late Pleistocene, experienced large fluctuations in depth and chemistry over the last 200,000 yr. Death Valley has been occupied by a long-standing deep lake, perennial shallow saline lakes, and a desiccated salt pan similar to the modern valley floor. The average sedimentation rate of about 1 mm/yr for core DV93-1 was punctuated by episodes of more-rapid accumulation of halite. Arid conditions similar to the modern conditions prevailed during the entire Holocene and between 120,000 and 60,000 yr B.P. From 35,000 yr B.P. to the beginning of the Holocene, a perennial saline lake existed, over 70 m at its deepest. A much deeper and longer lasting perennial Lake Manly existed from about 185,000 to 128,000 yr B.P., with water depths reaching about 175 m, if not 330 m. This lake had two significant “dry” excursions of 10²–10³yr duration about 166,000 and 146,000 yr B.P., and it began to shrink to the point of halite precipitation between 128,000 and 120,000 yr B.P. The two perennial lake periods correspond to marine oxygen isotopic stages (OIS) 2 and 6. Based on the shoreline tufa ages, we do not rule out the possible existence 200,000 yr ago of yet a third perennial lake comparable in size to the OIS 6 lake. The²³⁴U/²³⁸U data suggest that U in tufa owes its origin mainly to Ca-rich springs fed by groundwater that emanated along lake shorelines in southern Death Valley, and that an increase of this spring-water input relative to the river-water input apparently occurred during OIS 6.