| 鄱阳湖平原粮食主产区农户水稻熟制决策行为分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李鹏,肖池伟,封志明,姜鲁光,刘影. 鄱阳湖平原粮食主产区农户水稻熟制决策行为分析[J]. 地理研究, 2015, 34(12): 2257-2267. DOI: 10.11821/dlyj201512005 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李鹏 肖池伟 封志明 姜鲁光 刘影 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 1001012. 江西师范大学鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室,南昌 330022 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（41361104,41430861）;鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室（江西师范大学）开放基金资助项目（PK2014010）;江西师范大学研究生境内外访学项目基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 中国南方粮食生产区水稻熟制受市场和农业政策等影响频繁波动,对保障区域粮食安全构成了一定挑战。以鄱阳湖平原粮食主产区为研究单元,基于问卷调查法于2014-2015年收集了19个县（区）共682例农户水稻熟制调查问卷资料,分析该区水稻熟制现状及农户熟制决策行为,并利用Logistic回归法分析农户水稻熟制变化因素及其影响程度。结果表明：① 研究区内60.4%的受调查农户只选择种双季稻,26.7%的受调查农户只选择种单季稻,10.2%的农户同时种植双季稻和单季稻。因此双季稻是鄱阳湖平原粮食主产区主要的水稻种植制度。然而,受调查双季稻农户中有5.4%因其低丘岗地田块缺水灌溉或低地田块易长期受渍涝影响而只种早稻或晚稻,而农户弃耕、转出全部土地及耕地他用的占比达3.7%。② 受调查农户双季稻种植比单季稻种植的纯收入高323.9元/亩,但产投比和利润率单季稻比双季稻每亩分别高出15.9%和115.9%;③ 收入、灌溉条件、劳动力、田块质量、田块距离等是影响农户水稻熟制决策的主要因素,其中收入和灌溉条件分别占水稻熟制变化驱动因素的36.6%和28.5%。
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| 关 键 词： | 水稻熟制 农户调查 弃耕 驱动因素 Logistic回归分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-06-15 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015-11-03 |
Household decision behavior in rice cropping systems in the major rice-producing area of Poyang Lake Plain,China |
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| Peng LI,Chiwei XIAO,Zhiming FENG,Luguang JIANG,Ying LIU. Household decision behavior in rice cropping systems in the major rice-producing area of Poyang Lake Plain,China[J]. Geographical Research, 2015, 34(12): 2257-2267. DOI: 10.11821/dlyj201512005 |
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| Authors: | Peng LI Chiwei XIAO Zhiming FENG Luguang JIANG Ying LIU |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China2. Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China. |
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| Abstract: | Frequent fluctuations of rice cropping systems year by year induced by market and agricultural policies in the major rice-producing area (MRPA) in southern China have exerted much challenge in maintaining regional food security. In this study, the MRPA of Poyang Lake Plain (PLP) in northern Jiangxi province was selected as the study area, a total of 682 households' questionnaires that focused on rice cropping systems and the related driving factors were gathered during 2014-2015 in 19 counties within the MRPA of PLP, and the current situation of rice cropping systems and decision behavior of respondent households were analyzed accordingly. Then the driving factors and its related impacts were examined using the Logistic Regression analysis. The results showed that: (1) about 60.4% of the respondent households in the MRPA only cultivated double cropping rice, 26.7% of those respondents just chose to grow single cropping rice, and the last part (10.2 %) of all the respondents preferred to plant both of the rice types. Thus, the double-rice cropping system was still the dominant type. However, 5.4% of the double-rice cropping households had to cultivate a single crop per year, either early rice or late rice, due to the lack of irrigation in the hilly area or water logging lasting a long time during rice plants transplantation in the low-lying area. The total proportion of farming abandonment, farmland transfer and occupation for other purposes reached 3.7%. (2) The net-income per mu (Chinese unit, one hectare equals to 15 mu) for double-rice cropping system was higher than that of single cropping rice, about 323.9 Yuan (RMB). However, the ratio of input-output and the rate of profit for single-rice cropping system were about 15.9% and 115.9%, respectively higher than those of double-rice cropping system. (3) Income level, irrigation condition, labor force, paddy field quality and distance to paddy field were the five major factors which influenced the household decision behavior in rice cropping systems in the MRPA. Among them, income level and irrigation condition were the two key driving factors for the changes in rice cropping systems, with the corresponding effect ratio of 36.6% and 28.5%, respectively. |
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| Keywords: | rice cropping systems household survey farming abandonment driving factors Logistic regression analysis Poyang Lake Plain |
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