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| 基于GIS的祁连山东端冰雹灾害风险评估与区划 | |
| 引用本文： | 唐为安, 田红, 严小静, 吴蓉, 谢五三, 王胜. 2023: 基于地形订正技术的安徽冰雹灾害风险区划. 暴雨灾害, 42(5): 606-612. DOI: 10.12406/byzh.2023-021 |
| 作者姓名： | 唐为安 田红 严小静 吴蓉 谢五三 王胜 |
| 作者单位： | 1.安徽省气候中心, 合肥 230031;2.安徽省公共气象服务中心, 合肥 230031 |
| 基金项目： | 安徽省自然科学基金项目(2208085MD102)；中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J007) |
| 摘 要： |  地形订正是保证冰雹灾害风险区划结果准确的关键环节。利用1978—2020年安徽省81个国家级气象观测站冰雹观测资料以及地理信息、国内生产总值、历史灾情等数据，采用相关分析、回归分析等统计方法，识别冰雹灾害致灾因子，并计算其致灾强度，建立冰雹频次的地形修正方法，综合冰雹致灾强度和频次开展致灾危险性评估。基于自然灾害风险形成理论，综合致灾危险性和承灾体易损性，借助GIS技术完成冰雹灾害经济风险区划，并对结果的合理性进行了验证。  |
| 关 键 词： | 冰雹灾害 地形订正 致灾危险性 风险区划 安徽省 |
| 收稿时间： | 2023-02-10 |
Risk assessment and zonation of hail disaster in the East of Qilian Mountains based on GIS |
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| TANG Weian, TIAN Hong, YAN Xiaojing, WU Rong, XIE Wusan, WANG Sheng. 2023: Risk zoning of hail disaster in Anhui Province based on terrain correction technology. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 42(5): 606-612. DOI: 10.12406/byzh.2023-021 | |
| Authors: | TANG Weian TIAN Hong YAN Xiaojing WU Rong XIE Wusan WANG Sheng |
| Affiliation: | 1.Anhui Province Climate Center, Hefei 230031;2.Anhui Public Meteorological Service Center, Hefei 230031 |
| Abstract: | Terrain correction is a key step to ensure the accuracy of risk zoning for hail disasters. This study utilizes the hail observations from 81 national meteorological stations in Anhui Province spanning from 1978 to 2020, along with geographic information data, gross domestic product (GDP), and historical disaster data, to identify causative factors for hail disasters and calculate the hazard-inducing intensity indices by employing statistical methods of correlation analysis and regression analysis. Then, a terrain-involved correction method for hail frequency is established, with the combination of hazard-inducing intensity and frequency, to conduct disaster risk evaluation. According to the theory of natural disaster risk assessment, the Geographic Information System-based economic risk zonation of hail disaster is performed by integrating the hazard-inducing factors and vulnerability factors. The feasibility of zoning results is further verified through the direct economic losses caused by hail disasters.  The results show that: (1) the maximum hail diameter and duration of hailfall can be used as hail hazard-inducing factors, as both are significantly correlated with the damage index of hail disaster. The terrain-corrected spatial distributions of hail frequency are well consistent with the actual observations, which better represent spatial distribution variations in high-altitude mountainous areas. (2) the hail-prone areas, as well as the high-risk areas, are located in several regions along the main paths of hail disaster, such as to the north of the Huaihe River, in the eastern regions between the Yangtze River and Huai River, as well as in the mountainous areas of Dabie Mountains and the south part in Anhui Province. (3) The overall economic risk of hail disasters gradually decreases from north to south. The validation by direct economic losses suggests that the correlation coefficient between the economic risk index of hail disaster and the average of direct economic losses over multiple years in Anhui province has passed the significance test with a confidence level of 99%, and the zoning results agree well with the true situations. |
| Keywords: | hail disaster terrain correction hazard risk zonation Anhui Province |
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