| 气候变暖背景下山西区域地表干湿状况变化 |
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| 引用本文： | 张国宏,张冬峰,赵永强,田国珍,安炜. 气候变暖背景下山西区域地表干湿状况变化[J]. 干旱区地理, 2020, 43(2): 281-289. DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2020.02.01 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张国宏 张冬峰 赵永强 田国珍 安炜 |
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| 作者单位： | 山西省气候中心，山西 太原 030006 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局预报员专项（CMAYBY2019-016）；中央引导地方科技发展专项（ZY18C12）；国家重点基础研究发展计划（2017YFA0603701）；国家重点研发计划（2018YFC1505604）资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1961—2017年山西省67个台站观测资料和FAO Penman-Monteith模型,运用统计学方法,研究了山西省近57 a地表干燥度的时空变化,分析了干湿区界限的年代际波动和面积变化,探讨了影响本区域干燥度的主要影响因素,结果表明:以年干燥度指数2.0为标准,山西全省可划分为半干旱和半湿润2个分区,其分区与植被覆盖度十分吻合;山西省北部和东南部地区呈变湿趋势,2000年之后尤为明显,而西南部大部为变干趋势;干燥度指数在1960—1990年代呈波动上升趋势,之后呈下降趋势;降水量在1990年代前呈下降趋势,之后呈上升趋势;蒸散量的变化分3个阶段,1960—1970年代为上升趋势,1980—2000年代较为稳定,之后呈增加趋势;干湿区界限经历了1960—1990年代的东南向位移和之后的西北向位移2个阶段,相应的干旱区面积占总面积的比例由52%扩展到73%,之后缩减到23%;降水量和蒸散量均同干燥度有显著相关性,且降水量同干燥度的相关性大于蒸散量,而相对湿度、平均风速和日照时数同干燥度相关不显著,但同蒸散量显著相关,最高和最低气温同干燥度或蒸散量的相关性均不显著;晋西北沙漠化年代际...
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| 关 键 词： | FAO Penman-Monteith 干燥度 气候 山西 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-01-06 |
Changes of dry/wet surfaces in Shanxi Province underglobal warming |
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| ZHANG Guo hong,ZHANG Dong feng,ZHAO Yong qiang,TIAN Guo zhen,AN Wei. Changes of dry/wet surfaces in Shanxi Province underglobal warming[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(2): 281-289. DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2020.02.01 |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Guo hong ZHANG Dong feng ZHAO Yong qiang TIAN Guo zhen AN Wei |
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| Affiliation: | Climate Center of Shanxi Province,Taiyuan 030006,Shanxi,China |
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| Abstract: | Shanxi Province,China is located between 110.23°-114.55°E and 34.56°-40.73°Nand has a total area of approximately 15.67×104 km2;it is located on the eastern LoessPlateau of China,with altitude mostly more than 1 000 m above sea level.ShanxiProvince has a temperate continental monsoon climate with distinct seasons andis a semiarid and semihumid zone according to the dry humidclimate zones.Located in the northern margin of the East Asian monsoon,it isgreatly affected by the interannual variation of the intensity of the EastAsian monsoon,which causes frequent drought disasters and creates a fragileecological environment.The surface dry/wet conditions exert important effectson local agriculture,forestry,and animal husbandry production.For thesereasons,by using statistical methods,the temporal and spatial characteristicsof the aridity index (AI),interdecadal changes of dry/wet areaswere analyzed,and relationships between surface dryness and meteorologicalfactors were investigated on the basis of AIs calculated by themodified Penman Monteith model of the Food andAgriculture Organization of the United Nations;this study used meteorologicalobservation data from 67 stations in Shanxi Province from 1961 to 2017.Qualitycontrolled data obtained from the Shanxi Meteorological Information Center wereused,including annual precipitation,daily maximum and minimumtemperatures,average wind speed,sunshine hours,and relative humidity from 1961to 2017;the data for the longitudes,latitudes,and altitudes of stations werealso used.The statistical methods used mainly include trend analysis,Pearsoncorrelation analysis,and partial correlation analysis.The results can besummarized as follows:(1) Based on an annual AIof 2.0,ShanxiProvince can be divided into semiarid and semihumid zones,which are in goodagreement with the observed vegetation coverage.(2) The northern andsoutheastern parts of Shanxi Province show a wetting trend,while most of thesouthwest shows a drying trend.(3) The AIs show an overallincreasing trend from the 1960s to the 1990s,followed by a decreasingtrend;precipitation levels exhibit an opposite trend,and the changes inevapotranspiration are divided into three stages,namely an upward trend fromthe 1960s to the 1970s,almost no trend from the 1980s to 2000,and then anupward trend after 2000.(4) The boundaries of semiarid and semihumid lands moveto the southeast from the 1960s to the 1990s and move northwest after the1990s;the corresponding proportions of the total area of semiarid areas expandfrom 52% to 73% and then decrease to 23%.(5) Both precipitation andevapotranspiration exhibit prominent effects on aridity,and the correlation of precipitationwith dryness is greater than with evapotranspiration. Relative humidity,averagewind speed,and sunshine hours affect dryness via evapotranspiration.Thecorrelations between maximum/minimum temperatures anddryness/evapotranspiration are not significant.(6) The interdecadal trend ofdesertification in northwest Shanxi is consistent with dryness.These changesimply that the dry/wet condition is an important factor affectingdesertification.The major difference from previous studies is the shift fromdrying to wetting.Our conclusions can be used to guide agricultural and animalhusbandry production,forestry production planning,desertification control,andecological environmental construction,especially in northwest Shanxi.A keyproblem to be solved is the accurate estimation of solar radiation in areaswith no radiation observations and a modification of the Penman Monteith formula for different types of reference crops or land usetypes to render the calculated evapotranspiration values suitable for differentsurfaces.In the future,it will be helpful to guide agriculturalproduction,ecological environmental construction,and desertification control toestablish an index similar to dryness and to define a threshold that canaccurately depict the spatial distribution of the vegetation extent ordesertification. |
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