| 青海南部冬春季雪灾的气候诊断与预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 时兴合,王振宇,戴升,刘义花,肖建设. 青海南部冬春季雪灾的气候诊断与预测[J]. 冰川冻土, 2012, 34(6): 1441-1448 |
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| 作者姓名： | 时兴合 王振宇 戴升 刘义花 肖建设 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象局 成都高原气象研究所, 四川 成都 610072;2. 青海省气候中心, 青海 西宁 810001;3. 青海省气象科学研究所, 青海 西宁 810001 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41075066);中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CAMGJ2012M55);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200906019)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据青海省气象台站的历史积雪等资料, 依据气候诊断方法分析了降水、 积雪的变化特征和2012年冬春季雪灾形成的气候成因.结果表明: 2012年后冬~初春北半球乌拉尔山阻塞高压稳定维持、 青藏高原高度场偏低、 高原低槽和印缅槽活跃、 极地冷空气向南不断扩散, 冷暖空气在高原地区汇合, 在青海南部和北部地面温度梯度大、 锋区强的零温度线两侧形成大量的降水和积雪.期间的降雪量与降雪日数突破历史极值, 最高气温偏低, 积雪持续难以融化, 出现了历史少见的冬、 春季两季连续积雪, 导致玛沁、 甘德、 达日、 玛多等县出现不同程度雪灾, 1982年、 1993年、 1995年、 2008年、 2012年1-3月青海南部牧区的雪灾过程都基本属于这种类型. 1961-2009年高原牧区积雪与环流因子的气候诊断分析显示, 在1-3月北半球环流场上, 若北极涛动负值偏大、 乌拉尔山高压脊偏强、 印缅槽和高原低槽偏深时, 青海南部牧区降雪量大、 积雪量多, 积雪持续的时间长、 雪灾也相对比较严重, 在上述环流因子相反的配置下, 青海南部牧区的雪灾则比较轻.
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| 关 键 词： | 雪灾 气候 诊断 青海南部 |
| 收稿时间： | 2012-07-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2012-10-28 |
Climate Diagnosis and Prediction of Winter-Spring Snow Disasters in the Southern Qinghai Province |
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| SHI Xing-he,WANG Zhen-yu,DAI Sheng,LIU Yi-hua,XIAO Jian-she. Climate Diagnosis and Prediction of Winter-Spring Snow Disasters in the Southern Qinghai Province[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2012, 34(6): 1441-1448 |
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| Authors: | SHI Xing-he WANG Zhen-yu DAI Sheng LIU Yi-hua XIAO Jian-she |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Institute of Plateau Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Chengdu Sichuan 610072, China;2. Climate Center of Qinghai Province, Xining Qinghai 810001, China;3. Qinghai Institute ofMeteorological Sciences, Xining Qinghai 810001, China |
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| Abstract: | According to the historical snow cover data from observation stations in Qinghai Province, variation characteristics of precipitation, snow cover and climatic causes of snow disaster in winter and spring of 2012 were investigated using climatic diagnosis method. It is found that Ural Mountain blocking high stayed stably in the later winter to early spring of 2012 and the geopotential height over the Tibetan Plateau was lower. What is more, plateau trough and India-Burma trough kept active, polar cold air continued to move southwards, and the cold and warm air converged on the plateau. Temperature gradient was larger in southern part and northern part of the province, large amount of precipitation and snow cover took place on both sides of strong frontal zone. During this period, snowfall amount and snowfall days exceeded historical extreme value. At the same time, the maximum temperature was lower and the snow cover was deeper and difficult to melt. As a result, infrequent continuous snow cover spanning from winter to spring occurred, causing snow disasters at different levels to Maqin, Gande, Dari and Maduo Counties, respectively. Snow disasters in southern pastoral areas from January to March in 1982, 1993, 1995, 2008 and 2012 all had the same characteristics. Climatic diagnostic analysis of snow cover and circulation factors in plateau pastoral areas from 1961 to 2009 showed that when the negative value of Arctic Oscillation was more, Ural high pressure ridge was stronger and India-Burma trough and plateau trough were deeper, large amount of snowfall would occur in southern pastoral areas of the province, when snowfall might last for a long time, and the snow disaster would be relatively serious. The opposite configuration of circulation factors will make snow disaster in southern pastoral areas of the province lighter. |
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| Keywords: | snow disaster climatic diagnosis southern pastoral areas of Qinghai Province |
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