| 中国自然灾害灾情统计与自组织临界性特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱晓华,蔡运龙. 中国自然灾害灾情统计与自组织临界性特征[J]. 地理科学, 2004, 24(3): 264-269. DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2004.03.264 |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱晓华 蔡运龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;2. 北京大学资源环境地理学系, 北京 100871 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(批准号:40301002),国家自然科学重点基金(批准号:40335046)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于自组织临界性(SOC)思想,在分析中国自然灾害灾情统计特征的基础上,分析并揭示了中国自然灾害灾情的自组织临界性特征。在此基础上,建构了中国自然灾害灾情(包括松花江等七大流域洪涝灾害受灾县数、洪涝灾害伤亡人数、干旱伤亡人数、各类自然灾害总的伤亡人数等)标度-频度分形关系模型。最后指出,中国自然灾害灾情的自组织临界性特征是客观存在的,而标度-频度的幂律值则是一个相对值。
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| 关 键 词： | 灾害 灾情 中国 分形 自组织临界性 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0690(2004)03-0264-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2003-05-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003-12-18 |
Statistics and Self-organized Criticality Characters of Natural Disasters in China |
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| ZHU Xiao-hua,CAI Yun-long. Statistics and Self-organized Criticality Characters of Natural Disasters in China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2004, 24(3): 264-269. DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2004.03.264 |
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| Authors: | ZHU Xiao-hua CAI Yun-long |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Institute of Geographica Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101;2. Department of Resources & Environmental Geoscience, Peking University, Beijing 100871 |
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| Abstract: | Bak P,Tang C and Wiesenfeld K enunciated the concept of Self-organized criticality(SOC)in his paper"Self-organized criticality:an explanation of 1/f noise?"published in "Physical Review Letters" in the 1980s. The SOC concept was presented for the first time in that paper and has been applied to many fields ever since such as earthquake,weather and population etc. It has been adopted thousands upon thousands times. SOC is a new method to observe and explain the complexity and mechanism of nature. The negative power is the direct proof of SOC,fractal and disaster are two exterior representations of SOC. A SOC system can be forecasted. China is an agricultural country to some degree. However,natural and social factors result in the frequent natural disaster,which has greatly affected the agriculture and economy of China. Thus,it is useful to study the characters of statistics and SOC of natural disasters of China. In this paper,the characters of statistics and SOC of exposure of natural disasters of China are discussed based on the concept of Self-organized criticality and fractal. Furthermore,the relationships between the scale and frequency of cities covered by flood,died people by drought and flood are constructed. For example,the relationship between the scale and frequency of cities covered by flood is logN=4.0957-0.577logr,that of died people by drought is logN=3.9486-0.5359logr,and that of died people of all disasters is logN=4.8645-0.6526logr. The paper also discriminates the relationship between the negative power and scales,it is found that the character of self-organized criticality of China disaster exposure exists objectivity,but the value of the negative power of relationship between the scale and frequency may change with different scales. |
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| Keywords: | disaster exposure China fractal self-organized criticality |
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