| Multi-Year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model （RegCM_NCC） Part Ⅱ： The Experimental Seasonal Prediction |
| |
| 引用本文： | 丁一汇,刘一鸣,史学丽,李清泉,李巧萍,刘艳. Multi-Year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model （RegCM_NCC） Part Ⅱ： The Experimental Seasonal Prediction[J]. 大气科学进展, 2006, 23(4): 487-503. DOI: 10.1007/s00376-006-0487-2 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 丁一汇 刘一鸣 史学丽 李清泉 李巧萍 刘艳 |
| |
| 作者单位： | [1]Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 [2]Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 |
| |
| 摘 要： | A nested regional climate model has been experimentally used in the seasonal prediction at the China National Climate Center (NCC) since 2001. The NCC/IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) T63 coupled GCM (CGCM) provides the boundary and initial conditions for driving the regional climate model (RegCM NCC). The latter has a 60-km horizontal resolution and improved physical parameterization schemes including the mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme, the turbulent kinetic energy closure scheme (TKE) and an improved land process model (LPM). The large-scale terrain features such as the Tibetan Plateau are included in the larger domain to produce the topographic forcing on the rain-producing systems. A sensitivity study of the East Asian climate with regard to the above physical processes has been presented in the first part of the present paper. This is the second part, as a continuation of Part I. In order to verify the performance of the nested regional climate model, a ten-year simulation driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets has been made to explore the performance of the East Asian climate simulation and to identify the model’s systematic errors. At the same time, comparative simulation experiments for 5 years between the RegCM2 and RegCM NCC have been done to further understand their differences in simulation performance. Also, a ten-year hindcast (1991–2000) for summer (June–August), the rainy season in China, has been undertaken. The preliminary results have shown that the RegCM NCC is capable of predicting the major seasonal rain belts. The best predicted regions with high anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) are located in the eastern part of West China, in Northeast China and in North China, where the CGCM has maximum prediction skill as well. This fact may reflect the importance of the largescale forcing. One significant improvement of the prediction derived from RegCM NCC is the increase of ACC in the Yangtze River valley where the CGCM has a very low, even a negative, ACC. The reason behind this improvement is likely to be related to the more realistic representation of the large-scale terrain features of the Tibetan Plateau. Presumably, many rain-producing systems may be generated over or near the Tibetan Plateau and may then move eastward along the Yangtze River basin steered by upper-level westerly airflow, thus leading to enhancement of rainfalls in the mid and lower basins of the Yangtze River. The real-time experimental predictions for summer in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 by using this nested RegCM NCC were made. The results are basically reasonable compared with the observations.
|
| 关 键 词： | 区域气候模型 中国 季节预报 雨季 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-03-20 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-11-23 |
Multi-year simulations and experimental seasonal predictions for rainy seasons in China by using a nested regional climate model (RegCM_NCC) Part II: The experimental seasonal prediction |
| |
| Yihui Ding,Yiming Liu,Xueli Shi,Qingquan Li,Qiaoping Li,Yan Liu. Multi-year simulations and experimental seasonal predictions for rainy seasons in China by using a nested regional climate model (RegCM_NCC) Part II: The experimental seasonal prediction[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2006, 23(4): 487-503. DOI: 10.1007/s00376-006-0487-2 |
| |
| Authors: | Yihui Ding Yiming Liu Xueli Shi Qingquan Li Qiaoping Li Yan Liu |
| |
| Affiliation: | Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081,Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081,Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081,Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081,Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 |
| |
| Abstract: | A nested regional climate model has been experimentally used in the seasonal prediction at the China National Climate Center (NCC) since 2001. The NCC/IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) T63 coupled GCM (CGCM) provides the boundary and initial conditions for driving the regional climate model (RegCM_NCC). The latter has a 60-km horizontal resolution and improved physical parameterization schemes including the mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme, the turbulent kinetic energy closure scheme (TKE) and an improved land process model (LPM). The large-scale terrain features such as the Tibetan Plateau are included in the larger domain to produce the topographic forcing on the rain-producing systems. A sensitivity study of the East Asian climate with regard to the above physical processes has been presented in the first part of the present paper. This is the second part, as a continuation of Part I. In order to verify the performance of the nested regional climate model, a ten-year simulation driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets has been made to explore the performance of the East Asian climate simulation and to identify the model’s systematic errors. At the same time, comparative simulation experiments for 5 years between the RegCM2 and RegCM_NCC have been done to further understand their differences in simulation performance. Also, a ten-year hindcast (1991–2000) for summer (June–August), the rainy season in China, has been undertaken. The preliminary results have shown that the RegCM_NCC is capable of predicting the major seasonal rain belts. The best predicted regions with high anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) are located in the eastern part of West China, in Northeast China and in North China, where the CGCM has maximum prediction skill as well. This fact may reflect the importance of the largescale forcing. One significant improvement of the prediction derived from RegCM_NCC is the increase of ACC in the Yangtze River valley where the CGCM has a very low, even a negative, ACC. The reason behind this improvements is likely to be related to the more realistic representation of the large-scale terrain features of the Tibetan Plateau. Presumably, many rain-producing systems may be generated over or near the Tibetan Plateau and may then move eastward along the Yangtze River basin steered by upper-level westerly airflow, thus leading to enhancement of rainfalls in the mid and lower basins of the Yangtze River. The real-time experimental predictions for summer in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 by using this nested RegCM_NCC were made. The results are basically reasonable compared with the observations. |
| |
| Keywords: | regional climate model simulation hindcast prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《大气科学进展》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《大气科学进展》下载全文 |
|
